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sustainable development and security of the country and the formation of a political nation.
"World Religions in the Context of the Contemporary Culture: New Perspectives of Dialogue and Mutual Understanding",
St. Petersburg, 2011, pp. 130-137.
Alexandr Shustov,
Political analyst
WILL THE U.S.A. GET A MILITARY BASE IN UZBEKISTAN?
The geopolitical re-configuration in Central Asia following "the Arabic spring" gradually acquires more distinct contours. One of its results may become the transition of Uzbekistan, which recently declared the suspension of its membership in ODKB, to the camp of military-political allies of the U.S.A. And it was made against the background of the continued attempts of Washington to bring to naught the influence of Moscow in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where Russian military bases are located.
For the period from 15 to 17 of August Robert Blake, the Assistant to the State Secretary for Central Asian countries, went on his three days tour. Initially, he planned to visit Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. He supposed to arrange in Astana the presentation of "New Silk Road", within the framework of the regional integration project, which is being actively promoted by the U.S.A. and aimed at isolation of Russia from the most significant trans-continental communications in Eurasia. However, at the last moment Robert Blake suddenly changed the itinerary of the visit for the benefit of Tashkent. On 15 of August the Assistant to the State Secretary was received by the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. On 16 of August the third round of Uzbek-American political consultations and the Uzbek-
American business-forum was held in the ministry of foreign affairs. According to the official information, the negotiations were devoted to "a wide circle of questions of bilateral reciprocal action, including cooperation in political, trade-economic and social spheres and also in the field of security". Leaving aside the marked intensification of trade-economic cooperation, there was no information about any particular agreements. However, as a matter of fact, these agreements, seemingly, were concluded.
The principal intrigue of Robert Blake's visit to Tashkent became the supposition expressed on the eve of it by the newspaper of Kazakhstan "Liter" on the probable location in Uzbekistan of the military base of the U.S.A. According to the viewpoint of the newspaper, this step corresponds to the foreign policy of Tashkent, which only for a short time after the events of 2005 in Andijan had to establish allied relations with Russia. The newspaper supposed that Uzbekistan would join the group of key allies of the U.S.A. and that this step would provide Uzbekistan with military and financial assistance, as well as "certain guarantees of external and internal Uzbek relations". At the same time, Tashkent would be able "to slacken the reins" in its relations with neighboring countries quite often marked by disputes about resources", while the U.S.A., having located its military objects in Uzbekistan, would get a chance to have influence on Russia and China.
To all appearance, the publication of the article in "Litere", the organ of the ruling party in Kazakhstan "Nur Otan" was not accidental. On 23 of August, Russian newspaper "Kommersant" referring to the sources connected with the ministry of foreign affairs of Uzbekistan informed that Washington and Tashkent started negotiations on creation on the Uzbek territory of the Center for operations respond with the aim of "coordination of activities" in case of aggravation of the
situation after the defined withdrawal of the U.S.A. forces from Afghanistan. According to the source of "Kommersant", the question is the largest military object of the U.S.A. in Central Asia. The sense of the U.S.A. plans became evident: to give to the region's countries a part of the military equipment transported from Afghanistan. The biggest part of this equipment will be given to Uzbekistan and will be used for creation of the mentioned Center for operational respond. One part of this equipment will be given to Uzbekistan free of charge and the other part - for provisional keeping.
The U.S.A. has acquired experience in use of military bases in Uzbekistan. The military base named Karshi-Khanabad was located in distance of 10 km from the city of Karshi on the military airport in Khanabad for the period from 2001 to 2005. The status of the base was regulated by the agreement concluded in October 2001. The U.S.A. actually constructed a new airdrome and located there a squadron of airplanes S-130, about ten helicopters Black Hawk and 1500 servicemen. The base in Kharsh-Khanabad was used for the support of military actions of the U.S.A. in Afghanistan. The "honeymoon" in the relations of two countries terminated, when the U.S.A. under the public pressure demanded from the Uzbek authorities to let independent investigation of Andijan events of 2005. In July 2005, Uzbekistan demanded that the U.S.A. should terminate its use of the base in a half of the year, and in November the last American airplane left Kharsh-Khanabad. One part of the airplanes was located in Bagram and the other part - partially was located in the Kyrgyz airport Manas.
The creation of the Center of operational respond mentioned by "Kommersant" supposes a more significant American military presence. A part of American forces, withdrawing from Afghanistan, will move to the north, to the territory of the former USSR. If Americans get such new U.S. base, its place will be designed for
location not only of military air equipment but also of armored units and armored troop-carriers, vehicles and housing for servicemen, stores for foods and military equipment etc. The number of located here military forces will greatly exceed the number of forces located in the airbase in Kharshi-Khanabad. In this way Washington intends to make as its ally the most populated and second in terms of economic capacity country in Central Asia marked by the exceptionally advantageous geographic location. Uzbekistan has borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan and is located near the boundaries of China and Iran. All these countries will turn out to be in the zone within direct reach of the forces and means, which supposedly will be located in the new military base of the U.S.A.
Under these conditions, Moscow could not help taking steps for consolidation of its positions in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In the middle of August for two days president Almazbek Atambayev and the Russian delegation headed by the first deputy of the chairman of the government of the RF Igor Shuvalov held negotiations in Kyrgyzstan. The decision was taken for signing three agreements on cooperation in the military-technical, economic and energy spheres. It was supposed to sign in September the very important for Kyrgyzstan agreement with the Russian party on construction of hydro-electric station "Kamabarata-1" and of Verhnenaryn cascade of the HES. However, one question was not decided: will the air base of the U.S.A. in Manas continue to function after 2014 or will Almazbek Atambayev, finally, fulfill his pre-election promise and the base will be closed.
The position of Tajikistan is not clear in the new arrangement of forces, and Moscow has not succeeded to conclude the agreement on the period of location of the Russian base N 201. According to unofficial information, the Tajik leaders proposed Moscow to postpone the signing of the new agreement and expressed its readiness to prolong
the term of the existing agreement up to 2016. They say that after 2016 they will be ready to sign the agreement under the conditions, which suit Russia. The question is that for the period of 2013-2014 the presidential and the parliamentary elections will be held in the republic, and a probable change of the leadership is not excluded (there are people, who want to occupy the place of E. Rakhmon, and these people enjoy support, including the Trans-Atlantic support). Therefore it is difficult to say whether the procrastination for four years of decision on the question of the base N 201 will suit the Russian party.
If the Center for operation respond of the U.S.A. really appears in Uzbekistan, Russia will have to undertake principally new geo-strategic tasks. In stead of provisional, as was asserted beforehand, bases earmarked for war supplies of NATO services in Afghanistan, the full-scale American military base will be located for an indefinite long period on the territory, which recently was part and parcel of the united state with the RF. It is the equivalent of the situation, when Russia would have located its military base in Mexico, Nicaragua or Cuba.
"Medina al'Islam ", Moscow, 2012, N 9, p.6.
CONTENTS OF «RUSSIA AND THE MOSLEM WORLD» BULLETIN FOR 2012 № 1 (235)-12 (246)
N 1
Vladislav Lektorski. What is the Way to Arrange the Dialogue of Civilizations?; R. Bekkin. The Islamic Taxes as an Instrument of Solving Social-Economic Problems of the Muslim Population in Russia; Khasan Dzutsev. Wahhabism in the Republics of the North Caucasus: Realities and Consequences; K. Landa. Dagestan and
Geopolitical Problems in the South of Russia; Rasim Musabekov. Azerbaijan between Turkey and Russia; Irina Zvyagelskaya. Islamic Revival in Central Asia; A. Klimenko. Turkmenistan as a Potential Participant in SCO and its Influence on the Situation in Central Asia; Elena Ionova. Development of Russian-Uzbek Relations; Vladimir Karyakin. Information-Network Wars and their Role in the Events in the Middle East.
N 2
Alla Yazkova. The Socio-Economic and Political Situation in the North Caucasus: Strategic Risks for the Development of Russia; L. Aristova. Modern Kazakhstan: Islam and International Cooperation; M. Shumilov. The Role of Kyrgyzstan in Realization of the USA Strategic Interests in Central Asia; Rano Ubaidullayeva. Society and Family in Uzbekistan Education, Youth and Islam: Growing Popularity of Private Religious Lessons in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; L. Vasilyev. The Peculiarities of Struggle against Terrorism in Central Asia under Contemporary Conditions.
N 3
L. Skvortsov. Reconstruction of Global (Planetary) Democracy: Civilizational Consequences; A. Glukhova. Arabic Revolutions as a Factor of Influence on Internal Russian Policy; M. Zinchenko. Depoliticization of Islam as the Basis of Stabilization in the North Caucasus; M. Kolesnichenko. Azerbaijan in the System of International Relations; A. Shustov. Transformation of Ethno-Confessional Structure of Newly-Independent States of Central Asia; Georgy Sitnyansky. Integration in Central Asia: Russian and Turkish Drafts - Rivalry or Cooperation?
Vladimir Putin. Russia: The Nationalities Question; Leokadia Drobizheva. Russian Identity and Tolerance of Interethnic Relations: Experience of Twenty Years of Reforms; A. Khabutdinov. Muslim Educational Tradition in Nizhni-Novgorod Region; F. Kuliyev. On Religious Identity of the Peoples of the North Caucasus under Conditions of Globalization; V. Nikerov. From Fukushima to Libya: Politicization of Pipeline Rivalry on the Caspian Energy Scene; A. Klimenko. Destabilizing Factors in Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan; Khakim Abdullo Rakhnamo. Islam in Higher Education Institutions of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; Nurlan Abdulov. Processes of Regionalization, Integration and Institutionalization in Central Asia "For Many Years We Lived in One State".
N 5
Igor Ivanov. What Kind of Diplomacy Russia Needs in the 21st Century; Y. Amelina. The Federal "Wahhabi Lobby" and the "Stockholm Syndrome" of Intellectuals; Dugurkhan Kokorkhoyeva. Institutionalized Development of Political Power in the Republic of Tatarstan; Leila Almazova. The Development of Religious Education in Modern Bashkortostan; Rashid Emirov. Prospects of Reforming the National-Territorial Structure of the North Caucasus; A. Klimenko. Central Asian Republics: Destabilizing Factors in Relations Among
them and their Influence on the Situation in the Region; Dmitri
Furman Sanobar Shermatova. The Reasons of Downfall "Short Cycles" and of Renewal of Authoritarian Regimes in Kyrgyzstan; Rakhmon Ulmasov. Tajik Migration: History, Consequences and Lessons; A. Chuliyeva. The Activities of Western Non-Governmental Organizations in Central Asia.
We are 20; Andrei Semchenkov. Prevention and Neutralization of Foreign Threats to Political Stability of Russia; Natalya Muhametshina. Moslem Community of Russia under Influence of Migration Processes (on the Example of Samara Region); K. Gadzhiyev. The Nature of Political Regimes of National Republics of the North Caucasus; Dmitri Kotelenko. Islamic Factor in the Context of Security of the North Caucasus; Nikolai Silayev. The Post-Soviet Path of Azerbaijan; I. Iskakov. The Specifics of Political Institutions and Processes in Central Asia; A. Rakhnamo. Transformation of Political Culture "Political Islam" in Tajikistan; Igor Filkevich. Contemporary Development's Trends of Turkmenistan; Evgeni Borodin. Kyrgyzstan: in Search of its own Way of Development; Victor Korgun. The Afghan Conflict and Central Asia
N 7
Alexei Bogaturov. The Disintegration of the U.S.S.R. Has Changed International Relations, but Did Not Make Them More Harmonious; Yuldash Yusupov. Traditional Islamic Trends in the Public Life of Modern Bashkortostan; Asiet Ashkhamakhova, Irina Yakovenko. The Present State of Religious Consciousness of Russian Citizens (on Example of Adygea); E. Baboshina. The Confessional Factor in International Relations (the Republic of Dagestan as an Example); I. Khubiyev. Ethnopolitical Processes in Post-Soviet Karachay-Cherkessia: Lessons and Conclusions; A. Areshev. The Contemporary Caucasus: Unstable Periphery of "Great Near East" as a Naturally Determined Result of the Post-Soviet Development; Sergey Zolotukhin. The Russians in Kazakhstan; N. Almamedova. The Specifics of Political
Culture of Women in Central Asia (the xample of Turkmenistan); A. Manoilo. Revolutions in the Near East and the North Africa: Political Pragmatism and Controlled Chaos Technology.
N 8
Nikolai Shmelyov. Russia in the East - West Dichotomy 0 Years Later; Igor Kotin. Islam in Russia and Perspectives of Christian-Muslim Inter-Faith Dialogue; A. Yunusova. National Policy and Ethnic-Confessional Processes in Bashkortostan in the Context of "Strategy of National Security of the Russian Federation till 2020"; Laura Erekesheva. Aspects of Contemporary Development of Islam and Christianity in the Republic of Kazakhstan; S. Sushchi. The Contemporary North Caucasus - Systemic Crisis or Development from Force of Inertia; AlekseyMalashenko. Tajikistan: Civil War's Long Echo/
N 9
Valeri Stepanov. The Demographic and Social Picture of Russia: the Results of the Decade; Azamat Buranchin. Contemporary Society of Bashkortostan under Conditions of National Identity Crisis; Andrei Lukiyenko. Cultural and Ideological Aspects of Growing Tension in the North Caucasus; Aleksei Malashenko. The White Steamship of Kyrgyzstan Amid the Ice of Post-Soviet Authoritarianism; Elena Kuzmina. Turkmenistan at the Present Stage: Problems and opportunities of Development; Munzifon Babajanova. Polycultural Education in Tajikiustan: First Steps.
N 10
Marietta T. Stepanyants. Islamic Factor in Post-Soviet Russia's Processes of Identification; L. Izilyaeva. Analysis of Regional Security as Seen in Inter-Ethnic Relations in the Republic of Bashkortostan; 100
A. Nabiullina. Formation of National Self-Consciousness of Individual in Poly-Ethnic Region of Tatarstan; V. Merkuryev. Terrorism and Criminal Gangs in the North Caucasus; Anatoli Kulyabin. Restoration of Monarchies in the Post-Soviet Space?; A. Saliyev. The ontemporary Role of Islam in Social and Political Space of the Kyrgyz Republic; Lyudmila Maksakova. Appraisal of Labor Potential of Uzbekistan in Terms of Migration Perspectives; Influence of Religious Factor on the Socio-Political Situation in the South of Russia.
N 11
Mikhail Khazin. The World on the Threshold of New Epoch; Rashid Emirov. The Islamic Tangle in the Context of the National Security of Russia; Gebek Gebekov. The Islamic Factor in Post-Soviet Culture of Dagestan (1992-2006); Yu. Azikova. Strategic Approaches to De-Politicization of "Circussian Question"; Georgy Tsagolov. The Sources of "The Kazakh Miracle"; L. Manyakin. The Complex Interests of Russia in Central Asia for the Beginning of the XXI Century.
N 12
L. Skvortsov. Dangerous Symptoms of the Field of Modern Geopolitics; Viktor Avksentiev, Boris Aksyumov. Conflict-Raising Scenarios in the South of Russia in the Context of Social-Cultural Development of the Region; Alexei Malashenko. The New President and the "Old" North-Caucasus; Adash Toktosunova. Problems and Perspectives of Interfaith and Interethnic Dialogue in Kyrgyzstan; Alexandr Shustov. Will the U.S.A. get a Military Base in Uzbekistan?
