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NATALYA TOTSKOYNOVA. COOPERATION OF THE CENTRAL ASIAN STATES ON COMBATING TERRORISM / /
The article was written for publication in the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: terrorist threat, emergence of radical Islamism, ethnonational separatism, organized crime, drug trafficking, arms traffic, illegal migration.
Natalya Totskoynova,
Student, 4th year, Department of Political Science, Moscow State Linguistic University
Abstact. The level of terrorist threat in countries of the Central Asian region was high throughout all post-Soviet years. Largely it is caused by factors of an internal order: a low level of social and economic development of society creating grounds for emergence of radical Islamism, ethnonational separatism, organized crime, illicit drug trafficking and arms traffic, illegal migration; clan fight which quite often uses political extremism in its own purposes; insufficient development of religious and cultural consciousness.
The situation is aggravated by proximity to the centers of the international Islamic threat. With aggravation of the situation in the neighboring Afghanistan, creation and spread of a new terrorist association - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS, prohibited in Russia), the region turns into a zone of the increased terrorist threat. Meanwhile, owing to the geographical location the post-Soviet Central Asian region is an important member in ensuring global security, at the same time it is obvious a particular significance which maintenance of peace and stability have in the region for its closest neighbor - Russia.
Terrorist threat in the Central Asian region
For a long time on the territories of the Central Asian region there was the extremist group "Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan" (IMU). It pursued an aim of separation of the Fergana Valley from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and formation of a separate state in its territory which, as envisioned, was to be a part of the World Islamic caliphate including all Middle East and the Caucasus.
As known the Fergana Valley represents a densely populated area with high unemployment rate that does its territory convenient for activity of radical organizations and recruitment of new participants. IMU is accused of many terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan and also an invasion of the armed groups into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
IMU groups were involved in the civil war in Tajikistan on the side of the Joint Tajik opposition, and after truce their major part moved to Afghanistan. In Afghanistan IMU together with the Taliban fought against coalition forces. According to sources after fighters of IMU were pushed aside to the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, they got in touch with Al-Qaeda.
Over recent years, as experts note, the organization experiences a split, on its base there are new terrorist organizations, including Islamic Jihad (2002).1
And in August, 2015 IMU took sides with ISIS. Flowing of one terrorist associations into others doesn't change a core of the problem - considerable strengthening of global terrorist threat in the thick of which post-Soviet Central Asia can be found.
New challenges are created by gathering of formations of fighters the border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Escalation in Afghanistan near the southern boundaries of the CIS was registrated at the end of April, 2015 when Talibs announced the beginning of spring offensive blow on government forces.2
Further escalation of the intra Afghan conflict was connected with capture by fighters of Kunduz, located in 70 km from the Tajik border. In this regard since October 1 border troops of Tajikistan were got fully operational. At the bilateral meeting of presidents of Tajikistan and Russia which took place soon after
that from the Tajik part there was expressed concern about every day worsening situation in Afghanistan. According to the President of the Republic of Tatarstan E. Rahmon, military operation goes throughout 60% of all Tajik-Afghan border. Emphasizing that this border is in a zone of responsibility of the CSTO, he raised a question of ensuring safety in the region by the organization.
In May-June messages about violent military clashes of Talibs with government troops in bordering with Turkmenistan provinces of Herat on and Badgis regularly came in. At the same time manifold preponderance of force of Talibs was noted. Intense combat actions in these provinces at the end of May led to increase in a flow of Afghan refugees in the direction of the border with Turkmenistan. However, Turkmen frontiersmen didn't let them in the country over fears of Talibs attack.
In the fall of 2015 in connection with new military advance of Talibs in the north of Afghanistan the Turkmen troops also changed to a mode of constant combat readiness. It was announced a mobilization of officers and common reserve soldiers, it was realized re-deployment of military equipment as a result of which about 70% of mission capable equipment and arms of ground forces of Turkmenistan were concentrated along the Turkmen-Afghan border. However, the new head of the Taliban mullah A. Mansour who refused to conduct negotiations with the government in Kabul said that his movement didn't pose a threat to northern neighbors, and the countries of the Central Asian region shouldn't worry on this matter.
Most of experts agree that now the real threat to the countries of the Central Asian region proceeds not from Taliban, and from ISIS gaining influence in the northern provinces of Afghanistan. Ranks of this terrorist association grow at the expense of immigrants of the Central Asian region number of whom, by various estimates, reaches to 4000.
According to the director of MGIMO research center A. Kazantsev, "classical Talibs, being Pashtun nationalists, of
course, won't go to the Central Asian region - it is a myth, and invasion into the region of various ethnic extremists groups connected both with Al-Qaeda, and IS is not only probable, and in general it is expected in the light of that situation which developed in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East."3
Nevertheless not all political scientists, especially in a series of countries of the region, adhere to this point of view. Some experts consider direct military invasion of ISIS groups into the Central Asian region unlikely, believing that talks on ISIS threat for the Central Asian region are substantially caused by external forces interested in strengthening of their influence in the region or leaders of the republics counting on financial aid from abroad.
War on terrorism
The Uzbek political scientist Y. Sadikov, admitting activization of international terrorist organizations agents in the countries of Central Asia, believes that there is no military threat to Uzbekistan and other countries of the region from ISIS.4 One of the reasons of it he considers constructive cooperation of intelligence agencies of the countries of the region with Afghan colleagues, including safety on their common borders. Meanwhile, according to objective data, in the republics of the region activity of ISIS agents who manage to blast state power, recruit secret supporters and provoke disorders got into overdrive.
With the assistance of Russian intelligence agencies, a series of terrorist attacks which were to happen in Bishkek was prevented. In response to these actions ISIS delivered ultimatum to the leaders of the republic. Direct threats concerning leaders of Kyrgyzstan appeared on social media: if the authorities of the republic continue detaining of ISIS supporters and impeding recruitment of new fighters, then in the near future the country will be overflowed by a terror wave.
In Uzbekistan extraordinary security measures across the population are undertaken, preachers in mosques educate about
the essence of Islam. On August 1, 2015 in the south of the republic, in Andijan, there were held joint anti-terrorist tactical maneuvers of relevant departments of Ministries of defense, internal affairs, emergency situations and National Security Service of the republic.
As noted by experts, nowadays Uzbekistan possesses the strongest army in the region, and Uzbek part of the border with Afghanistan is one of the most protected. Nevertheless, the former president of the republic I. Karimov showed angst with a view to terrorist threat increase in the region.5
It should be noted that security strategy led by Tashkent supposes maintenance of close good neighbor relations with the government of Afghanistan and development of economic relations (construction of transport, logistic routes to Afghanistan, participation in development of its electricity sector, supply of food and other goods). In case of realization of ISIS threats republics of Central Asia will not be able to cope with this situation individually, and it finds understanding in the Central Asian capitals. Meanwhile one of the main weaknesses of the states of the Central Asian region in fight against terrorism is a low level of interaction in this direction that is broadly caused by their old contradictions.
Disunity of the region
Relations among Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan remain complicated which were damaged because of the problem of use of water resources in the region. Quite often there are collisions on the border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan 970 km long only 567 of which are demarcated and delimited. As the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan E. Abdyldayev said at the 70th session of General Assembly of the UN (September, 2015), direct multilateral political dialogue between the countries of the Central Asian region is actually absent. He, in particular, suggested creating a dialogue platform for the countries of the region within
the UN, "to intensify political and economic cooperation in the region."
Escalating terrorist threat forces the republics of Central Asia to cooperate more actively with each other in the sphere of security. So, in July, 2015 in the south of Kyrgyzstan in bordering with Tajikistan district with the assistance of OSCE joint command and staff tactical maneuvers of two republics "Barrier-2015" were held with participation of the expert group FSB RF.6
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, two closest allies in the region having non-bloc status following the results of the meeting of presidents of two countries which took place on October 7-8, 2016 in Tashkent reached an agreement on enhancing the interaction of borders protection with Afghanistan and signed a number of cooperation agreements in fight against terrorism, organized crime and other challenges. (The arrangement on joint protection of borders is an effect between two countries since 2012).
The management of the Central Asian region count on support in fight against Islamic threat on the part of the world community and the centers of power having the greatest influence in the region - Russia, China and the U.S. The anti-terrorist subject is included into the agenda of various international summits, forums and other events within the CIS, the CSTO and SCO in which countries of Central Asia take part. Decisions of the October summit of the CIS in Kazakhstan are focused on increased interaction of post-Soviet states in the sphere of fighting against terrorism.
At the summit there were adopted the Declaration on combating international terrorism, the Concept of military cooperation till 2020, the Programme of cooperation in strengthening boarder security on external borders for 2016-2020. According to the Executive secretary of the CIS S. Lebedev, politicians agreed about mutual assistance in regions arrangement of external borders of the CIS states on "the most threatening directions." Special groups of border troops were created for this purpose. Experts don't rule out that the Russian frontier guards can return to the Tajik-Afghan border from where they left in 2005.
Nevertheless, the main vectors of foreign policy cooperation of the states of the Central Asian region regarding security differ.
CSTO and Central Asian region
For Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan interaction with Russia within the CSTO is overriding. In the middle of September in Dushanbe the regular meeting of Council of common security of the CSTO at which heads of the CSTO member-states discussed problems of combating terrorism, crisis in Syria, cooperation in defense sphere and others took place.
The president of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev considers that Russia and Kazakhstan have common vision of the situation development in the world, closely coordinate approaches to solution to the problem of security.7 He emphasized that the situation in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria is of great importance for the countries of the region, and the Syrian crisis constitutes a danger for all Central Asian region. At the October summit of the CIS in Kazakhstan Nazarbayev put forward an initiative of creation of the forum "Islam against Terrorism" which should join efforts of Muslim countries.
Russia is ready to act as a guarantor of security for the Central Asian region as evidenced by its leading role in the CSTO. Due to growth of terrorist threat in the region Russia intends to strengthen its presence in Central Asian the region, in particular, by means of strengthening of military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and also surge of military and technical support of allies within the CSTO.
Russia signed treaties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on extension of the validity of Russian military bases in these countries till 2047 and 2032 subsequently. Also Moscow announced of military contingent extension of the 201st Russian base in Tajikistan from 5900 to 9000 people by 2020. On Ayni's airdrome where the Russian Federation tried to get access since 2004, the helicopter team will be sent for strengthening of this Russian base.8
Besides, within the CSTO there were exercised military maneuvers with an access to the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. According to sources, considering a difficult domestic political situation in Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation is ready to grant military aid in the amount of 1 bln. dollars to the republic.
Due to modernization of airpower the Russian air base in Kant will be also strengthened where 10 new enhanced SU-25 fighters have already arrived. Besides, according to the bilateral treaty, Moscow provided to the republic with 10 armored personnel carriers, artillery systems and ammunition for them, spare parts and equipment for antiaircraft defenses.
Till 2017 Kyrgyzstan has to receive the main part of military aid which includes armored personnel carriers, combat vehicles, planes and helicopters. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan which announced their non-bloc status hold isolated position. As for Uzbekistan which in 2012 left the CSTO, SCO remains the main platform of its cooperation with Russia.
Since 2003 in Tashkent there is the Regional counter-terrorism center of SCO (RATS). The bilateral agreements which exists between Moscow and Tashkent about strategic partnership oblige the parties to render assistance to each other in the sphere of security. Some Uzbek analysts don't rule out that in case of serious security threats from terrorist, extremist groups, Tashkent can settle for creation of certain framework of cooperation with the CSTO.
For example, to create a platform for dialogue within a formula of the CSTO Uzbekistan, accurately discussed that this format doesn't consider participation of the republic in organization activity, except cooperation in anti-terrorist sphere in the region.
The U.S. and Central-Asian region
However it is difficult to divine actions of Uzbek government, policy of which always differed by ambiguity. In particular, at the above-mentioned meeting of the presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan there was coordinated a
synchronous refusal of an appeal to the Russian Federation for help in a case of escalation on the Afghan border.
At the same time in the Declaration on strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and the U.S. it was recorded readiness of Washington to help the republic, up to military one, in case of security threat. Transfer to Tashkent by American side some military equipment after partial withdrawal of its contingent from Afghanistan demonstrates continuation of cooperation between two countries in this sphere. Within a special program the Pentagon gave Uzbekistan 300 armored cars with a total cost of 180 million dollars.9
The United States don't intend to leave Central Asia in Russian and Chinese sphere of influence and recently show the increasing interest in participation in enhancing its security. Strengthening of influence in Central Asia is important for Washington also in connection with its decision to leave its troops in Afghanistan for Islamic threat manageability there. At the end of August D. Rozenblyum the Assistant of the U.S. Secretary of State for the Southern and Central Asian region was in Tashkent, and general Lloyd J. Austin III the head of the Central command of the U.S. visited Dushanbe. In both Central Asian countries it was question about regional security and situation in Afghanistan.
On September 26 at the initiative of Washington in the UN General Assembly in New York the meeting of the U.S. Secretary of State D. Carrey with Ministers of Foreign Affairs of five Central Asian countries took place, following the results of which the American party announced establishment with these countries of "a new format of interaction for discussion of regional issues." As noted by mass media, at the meeting it was a question about joint actions for neutralization of new challenges in the field of security and development of economic ties.10
"Presentation" of this "new format of interaction," or "C5+1" (the republics of Central Asia plus the U.S.), was realized in Samarkand within D. Carrey's tour across the countries of the region
at the beginning of November, 2015. Here it was held the meeting of the U.S. Secretary of State with Ministers of Foreign Affairs of all five countries of the region. The first visit of the U.S. Secretary of State to the republics of Central Asia demonstrated the next raise of interest of Washington in this region. Following the results of the meeting it was adopted the Joint declaration in which the parties declared readiness to carry out regular contacts in this format and that six countries will promote attraction of foreign investments into the region, development of local business, regional trade, infrastructure, economic development and power links.
In fact, the C5+1 format represents an attempt to integrate all the republics of the region under the patronage of the U.S. Thus, there is competition to integration associations of the Central Asian countries with Russia and China, that shows the aspiration of Washington to limit influence of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China in Central Asia. It is characteristic that the U.S. Secretary of State began his tour from Kyrgyzstan which closely cooperates with Russia on the military questions. At the meeting with the president of the republic A. Atambayev Kerry offered to sign a new military agreement with the U.S., though hinted that Washington doesn't plan creation of military base in the territory of the republic.
In Tajikistan to which Washington along with Uzbekistan earlier directed an offer to adjoin the anti-terrorist coalition, the U.S. Secretary of State promised support in protection of the border and solution of electrical shortage. The special role of Uzbekistan for the United States was already emphasized by the fact that the meeting within "C5+1" took place in this republic. As for Turkmenistan, recently in a position of Ashgabat it is more and more obvious its commitment to the U.S. Even in the spring of 2015 when military advance of Talibs began in the north of Afghanistan and there was information about presence of ISIS fighters there, Ashgabat made an official request to Washington for military aid and received an affirmative answer.
The president of the republic G. Berdimuhamedov ignored the October summit of the CIS at which it was accepted the concept of military interaction of the Commonwealth countries and directed instead of him the prime minister there. At the same time the Turkmen delegation headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkmenistan R. Meredovym was in the U.S. where conducted negotiations concerning American assistance for provision of security of the border with Afghanistan. Following the results of the negotiations the American party declared that the U.S. plans to deepen its relations with Turkmenistan.
Among the factors which caused turn of Ashgabat towards Washington, an important role is played by oil and gas interests of the republic. On the one hand, there is a traditional discontent of Ashgabat with cooperation with Russia in export of Turkmen gas and pressure from Russian Gazprom. Besides, the Turkmen government is concerned about growth of military activity of the Russian Federation in the Caspian Sea. The Russian political scientist A. Dubnov doesn't role out that the Turkmen authorities were dissatisfied with, uncoordinated with them rocket attacks, from the Caspian Sea water areas on Syria.11
As a result, it is possible to state the following. First, there is a real threat from ISIS for the countries of Central Asia. This threat going from the southern borders of the CIS poses risks to the national interests of Russia. Decisions of the October summit of the CIS in Kazakhstan are aimed at its prevention.
Secondly, Russia is ready to claim additional responsibility for security in Central Asia that reflects in growth of its military aid within the CSTO.
Thirdly, strengthening of interaction of the countries of the region in the sphere of security is a required efficiency condition of combating terrorist threat. Fourthly, the lack of adequate level of this interaction gives the United States an opportunity to join integration processes of Central Asia, at the same time Turkmenistan can become their main support here.
In the conclusion it would be desirable to note the success of realized military projects within the listed organizations. At the same time ideological and information response to terrorism, dethronement of appeal of the ideas of pseudo religious organizations in the eyes of Russian youth and the countries of the Central Asian region, educational projects on studying bases and culture of traditional religions have to become the main instruments of counteraction.
Notes
1 Official Site, [Electronic resource], Russia-Antiterror. National Portal of Counter-Terrorism www.antiterror.ru (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
2 Official Site, [Electronic resource], Russia-Antiterror. National Portal of Counter-Terrorism. www.antiterror.ru (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
3 Threat to World Peace and Security, Created by Terrorist Attacks [Electronic resource] www.un.org/ ru/sc/documents/resolutions/2015 (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
4 Threat to World Peace and Security, Created by Terrorist Attacks [Electronic resource] www.un.org/ru/sc/documents/resolutions/2015 (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
5 Threat to World Peace and Security, Created by Terrorist Attacks [Electronic resource] www.un.org/ru/sc/documents/resolutions/2015 (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
6 Arifhanov Sh. Central Asia: Present and Future - Tashkent, 2015.
7 Annenkov V.I. International Security, Geopolitical and Military-Political Aspects of Modernity. Article, Moscow: Rusaviya, 2017.
8 Official Site, [Electronic resource], Russia-Antiterror. National Portal of Counter-Terrorism http://www.antiterror.ru (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
9 Official Site, [Electronic resource], www.un.org;www.unodc.org the UN website (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Official Site, [Electronic resource], www.un.org;www.unodc.org the UN website (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Dubnov A. Geopolitics of Post-Modernity - Moscow, 2015.
References
10
Official Site, [Electronic resource], Russia-Antiterror. National Portal of Counter-Terrorism. www.antiterror.ru (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Threat to World Peace and Security, Created by Terrorist Attacks [Electronic resource] www.un.org/ru/sc/documents/resolutions/2015 (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Arifhanov Sh. Central Asia: Present and Future - Tashkent, 2015.
Annenkov V.I. International Security, Geopolitical and Military-Political Aspects of Modernity. Article, Moscow: Rusaviya, 20170fficial site, [Electronic resource], www.un.org; www.unodc.org-cawT OOH (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Official Site, [Electronic resource], www.un.org; www.unodc.org-cawT OOH (Access date: 12.12.2018.)
Dubnov A. Geopolitics of Post-Modernity - Moscow, 2015.
