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E. lonova,
Ph. D. (Hist.), senior researcher, Sector "Russia and the New States of Eurasia" (IMEMO RAN) ABOUT THE THREAT OF TERRORISM IN CENTRAL ASIA
The level of terrorist threat in Central Asia was high throughout the post-Soviet years. This situation is caused by internal factors to a large extent - a low level of socio-economic development of society, which creates the basis for the emergence of radical Islamism, ethno-national separatism, organized crime, drug and arms trafficking, illegal migration; clan struggle, often using political extremism for their own purposes; insufficient development of religious and cultural identity. The situation is aggravated by the proximity to the centers of the international Islamist threat.
This region is transformed into a zone of increasing terrorist threats with deterioration of the situation in neighboring Afghanistan, establishment and spread of the new terrorist entity - the Islamic State (ISIS), prohibited in Russia. Meanwhile, the post-Soviet Central Asia is an important link in ensuring global security due to its geographical location, it is obvious the special importance of maintaining peace and stability in the region for its nearest neighbor - Russia.
The extremist group "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" (IMU) has acted on the territory of Central Asia for a long time. Its goal was to separate the Fergana Valley from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and to form on its territory a separate state, which had to join the World Islamic caliphate consisting of the entire Middle East and the Caucasus.1 As it is known, the Fergana Valley is a densely populated area with high unemployment, making it the area, convenient for the activities of radical organizations and the recruitment of new members.
IMU is accused of many terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan, as well as in the invasion of armed groups in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. IMU detachments participated in the Tajik civil war on the side of the United Tajik Opposition, and most of them moved to Afghanistan after the armistice. There IMU in alliance with the Taliban fought against coalition forces. According to sources, they came into contact with "Al Qaeda" after the IMU militants have pushed aside to the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan.2
According to experts, the organization is going through a split in the past few years, and new terrorist groups are organized on its basis, including "Islamic Jihad" (2002). In August 2015 IMU sided with ISIS. 3 The problem does not change due to the conversion of certain terrorist organizations in the other ones, and a significant increase in the global terrorist threat; The Post-Soviet Central Asia may be at the epicenter, as a result.3 The essence of the problem does not change due to the conversion of some terrorist organizations into other ones, and a significant increase of the global terrorist threat; Post-Soviet Central Asia may find oneself at the epicenter as a result.
New challenges are generated as a result of concentrations of militants on the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. Aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan near the southern borders of the CIS was recorded as early as the end of April 2015, when the Taliban announced a spring offensive against government forces. Further escalation of the Afghan conflict was associated with the capture of the city of Kunduz by the militant forces, located of 70 km from the Tajik border. In this regard, the Tajik border troops were put on full combat readiness since 1 October. There was a two-way meeting of the presidents of Tajikistan and Russia soon after, where the Tajik side expressed its concern over the situation in Afghanistan, which was deteriorating with each passing day. According
to President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, the fighting went on for 60% of the Tajik-Afghan border. He raised the question of security in the region through the CSTO, stressing that this border was its zone (CSTO) of responsibility.4
In May and June there were regular reports of violent armed clashes between the Taliban and the government troops in neighboring Turkmenistan provinces of Herat and Badghis. Multiple superior Taliban forces were observed at the same time. Intense combat operations in these provinces have increased the flow of Afghan refugees towards the border with Turkmenistan in late May. However, the Turkmen border guards did not let them into the country for fear of the Taliban attacks. In early July, "Chronicles of Turkmenistan" reported the deaths of 12 border guards on the Turkmen-Afghan border.5 In the autumn of 2015 the Turkmen army also moved in constant combat readiness mode in connection with the new armed offensive of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan. There were mobilization reservists, announced, redeployment of military equipment produced, and as a result there have been concentrated to 70% of combat-ready equipment and weapons of Turkmen land forces along the Turkmen-Afghan border.6
Most experts agree that now the real threat to the Central Asian countries comes not from Taliban, but from ISIS, that gained influence in the northern provinces of Afghanistan. The ranks of the terrorist association grow at the expense of immigrants from Central Asia, the number of which already comes up to 4000. According to the Director of the Analytical Center of MGIMO A. Kazantsev, the Taliban will not go to Central Asia, it is a myth, but the invasion of the region groups of different ethnic extremists expected in light of the situation prevailing in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East.7
However, not all politicians, particularly in a number of countries in the region hold this view. Some experts consider direct military invasion of ISIS gangs in Central Asia unlikely, assuming that talk about the threat of ISIS for Central Asia largely instigated by external forces interested in strengthening its influence in the region, or the leadership of the republics themselves counting on financial aid from abroad.8
Meanwhile, in accordance with objective data, sharply increased activity of ISIS agents in the regions that are working to undermine the government, recruit secret supporters and provoke unrest. In Kazakhstan, for example, extremist organizations make recruiting and training of militants, there are located base, which prepare sabotage against neighboring countries. Citizens of Kazakhstan have been involved in terrorist acts in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. It is no coincidence that the British Foreign Office has assigned Kazakhstan, along with Tajikistan, the second level of danger - "a serious threat".9 (the third level of danger - "medium threat" is assigned to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan).
Supporters of the terrorist organization ISIS have been found not only among the uneducated and the poor, but also among the officials, politicians and intellectuals. It was prevented series of terrorist attacks with the support of the Russian secret services, which were to take place in Bishkek. ISIS has put forward an ultimatum to the leadership of the republic in response to these actions. There were direct threats against Kyrgyz leaders in social networks: if the republic's authorities continue to detain ISIS supporters and to prevent the recruitment of new militants, the country overwhelmed by a wave of terror in the near future.10
Uzbekistan has taken increased security measures in its population, the preachers in the mosques conduct explanatory work
about the nature of Islam. There were held joint anti-terrorist tactical exercise of the relevant units of the ministries of Defense, Internal Affairs, Emergency Services and National Security in the south in Andijan August 1, 2015.11 According to experts, currently Uzbekistan has the most powerful army in the region, and the Uzbek section of the border with Afghanistan, is one of the most protected and sheltered. Nevertheless, the president of the republic Islam Karimov shows extreme concern with the increase in the region of the terrorist threat. It should be noted that the security strategy that pursued by Tashkent, involves maintaining close friendly relations with the Government of Afghanistan and the development of economic ties.
In the case of threats of ISIS, the Central Asian republics can not alone cope with the situation, and it is well understood in the Central Asian capitals. Meanwhile, one of the main weaknesses of the Central Asian countries in the fight against terrorism is a low level of interaction in this area, largely due to their long-standing controversy. The relations of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan remain difficult, spoiled due to the problem of water resources in the region. Often various collisions occur on the border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which is a length of 970 km, and only 567 delimited and demarcated. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister E. Abdyldaev said at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly (September 2015), that direct multilateral political dialogue between the countries of Central Asia was virtually absent. He proposed the creation of a dialogue platform for the countries of the region in the framework of the United Nations, "to strengthen political and economic cooperation in the region".12
The growing threat of terrorism forces the Central Asian countries to cooperate more actively with each other in the field of security. So, it was held joint command and staff tactical exercises of the two republics "Barrier-2015", with participation of the expert group
of the FSB, and with the support of the OSCE in July 2015 in southern Kyrgyzstan in the border area with Tajikistan.13 Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the two closest allies in the region, having a non-aligned status, agreed to strengthen cooperation on border security with Afghanistan and signed a number of agreements on cooperation in the fight against terrorism, organized crime and other challenges.14 (agreement on valid between the two countries in 2012, the joint protection of borders).
Leaders of the Central Asian republics hope for support of the world community and power centers, that have the greatest influence in the region - Russia, China and the United States, in their fight against the Islamist threat. Antiterrorist topics are on the agenda of various international summits, forums and other events in the framework of the CIS, the CSTO and the SCO, which involve the Central Asian country. Decisions of the October CIS summit in Kazakhstan are directed at strengthening interaction between the post-Soviet states in the fight against terrorism. Statement on the fight against international terrorism, military cooperation concept until 2020, co-operation program to strengthen border security at the external borders to 2016-2020 have been taken on it. 15
Politicians agreed on mutual assistance in setting up the external borders of the CIS states on "the most threatened sectors." For this purpose, special categories of border troops should be established. Experts do not exclude that the Russian border guards could return to Tajik-Afghan border, from where they left in 2005.16
However, the main vectors of foreign policy cooperation of Central Asian countries in the field of security are different from each other. Cooperation with Russia in the framework of the CSTO is a priority for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The next session of the CSTO Collective Security Council was held in mid-September in
Dushanbe, at which the heads of the CSTO member states discussed the issues of combating terrorism, the crisis in Syria, defense cooperation, and others.17 Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Kazakhstan and Russia had a common vision of the evaluation of the situation in the world, closely coordinating approaches to solving security problems. He stressed that the importance of the region was the situation in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and the Syrian crisis was a threat to the entire Central Asian region. At the October CIS summit in Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev initiated the creation of the forum "Islam against terrorism", which had to unite the efforts of Muslim countries.17
Russia is ready to act as guarantor of the security of the Central Asian region, as evidenced by its leading role in the CSTO. Due to the growth in the region of the terrorist threat, Russia intends to strengthen its presence in Central Asia, in particular through the strengthening of military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as the increase in military-technical assistance to allies in the CSTO. Russia has signed agreements with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on the extension of the Russian military bases in those countries to 2047 and 2032 respectively. Moscow also announced an increase in the military contingent of the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan since 5900 to 9,000 by 2020. The helicopter group will aim to strengthen the Russian military base at Ayni airfield. In addition, within the framework of the CSTO, military exercises have been carried out with access to the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan.
According to sources, the Russian Federation is ready to provide military assistance to the country in the amount of $ 1 billion, considering the complicated political situation in Kyrgyzstan.19 The Russian air base in Kant will also be strengthened by upgrading aircraft, which has already received ten new Su-25 advanced fighter jets. In addition, according to the bilateral agreement, Moscow has
provided the Republic ten armored personnel carriers, artillery systems and ammunition, spare parts and equipment for air defense. Kyrgyzstan should get the bulk of military aid by 2017, which includes armored vehicles, combat vehicles, aircraft and helicopters.20
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan occupy an isolated position, announced their non-aligned status. As for Uzbekistan, which was released in 2012 from the CSTO, the SCO remains the main area of its cooperation with Russia. Since 2003, the Regional Antiterrorist Center of the SCO (RATS) is located in Tashkent. Existing bilateral agreements on strategic partnership between Moscow and Tashkent oblige the parties to assist each other in the field of security.
Some Uzbek analysts do not exclude the fact that Tashkent can go at creating some formats of cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the case of very serious security threats from terrorist and extremist groups. For example, to create a platform for dialogue within the scope of the CSTO + Uzbekistan, specifying clearly that the format does not regard the republic participated in the organization of activities, in addition to cooperation in the field of anti-terrorism in the region.
But it is difficult to predict the actions of Islam Karimov, whose policy has always differed duality. In particular, it was agreed simultaneous rejection of the appeal to Russia for help in case of aggravation of the situation on the Afghan border at the meeting of the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.22 At the same time, Washington is fixed readiness to assist the country, up to the military, in case of security threats in the Declaration on strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and the United States. Transfer of some military equipment by the U.S. side to Tashkent after the partial withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan indicates continuing cooperation between
the two countries in this sphere. The Pentagon gave Uzbekistan 300 armored vehicles worth $ 180 million under a special program.23
The United States does not intend to leave Central Asia in the sphere of influence of Russia and China, and has recently shown a growing interest in participating in ensuring its security. Strengthening of influence in Central Asia is important for Washington in connection with the decision to leave its troops in Afghanistan to neutralize Islamist threat there. In late August, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia D. Rozenblyum visited Tashkent, and the head of the U.S. Central Command General Lloyd Dzh. Ostin 3rd - in Dushanbe. It was about regional security and the situation in Afghanistan.
There was a meeting between the U.S. Secretary of State J. Kerry and the Foreign Ministers of the five Central countries on Washington's initiative at the UN General Assembly, the fields in New York on 26 September. As a result of which the U.S. side declared the establishment of "a new format of interaction to discuss regional issue" with those countries. As noted by the media, it was a joint action to neutralize the new challenges in the field of security and the development of economic ties. 24
"Presentation" of this "new format of interaction" or "C5 + 1" (the republic of Central Asia plus the U. S.), was held in Samarkand in the framework of J. Kerry's tour of the countries of the region at the beginning of November 2015. Here, the U.S. Secretary of State met with the foreign ministers of the five countries in the region. The first visit of the Foreign Minister of the U.S. in the Central Asian republic testified about another increase in Washington's interest in the region. Joint Declaration has been accepted after the meeting in which the parties expressed their readiness to hold regular contacts in this format and that the six countries would contribute to the attraction of foreign
investments to the region, local business development, regional trade, infrastructure, economic development and energy relations.25
In fact, the format of "C5 + 1" represents an attempt to integrate all the republics of the region under the auspices of the United States. This creates competition for the integration associations of the Central Asian countries with Russia and China, which demonstrates Washington's effort to limit the influence of Russia and China in Central Asia. It is noteworthy that the U.S. Secretary of State started his trip from Kyrgyzstan, which cooperates closely with Russia in the military sphere. The U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry proposed to President Atambayev to sign a new military agreement with the United States during the meeting, but made it clear that Washington had no plans to establish a military base in the republic. This proposal has not found a response in Bishkek. However, according to experts, the situation may change if the new figure appears at the head of the republic after the election.26
According to mass media, in Kazakhstan, the foreign ministers reaffirmed the strategic partnership between the two countries. John Kerry said that the U.S. considers cooperation with Kazakhstan from the point of view of normalization of relations with Russia.27 The U.S. Secretary of State pledged support for Tajikistan in securing borders and solving the issue of electricity shortage, which Washington previously sent a proposal to join the anti-terrorist coalition, along with Uzbekistan. The special role of Uzbekistan to the United States was underlined by the fact that the meeting of the "C5 + 1" is held in this republic.
As for Turkmenistan, its orientation on the U.S. can be traced in Ashgabat position more clearly in recent times. Ashgabat appealed to Washington a formal request for military assistance and received a positive response to it in the spring of 2015, when the Taliban launched
an offensive in the north of Afghanistan and information appeared about the presence of militants ISIS there.28 The President Berdymukhamedov ignored the October summit of the CIS, in which the concept of military cooperation of the Commonwealth countries was adopted, and directed the prime minister in his place there. At the same time, the Turkmen delegation headed by Minister of Foreign Affairs R. Meredov was in the U.S., where it negotiated for the U.S. assistance for security border with Afghanistan. Following the talks, the U.S. side stated the United States' plans to deepen relations with Turkmenistan.29
Oil and gas interests of the Republic played an important role among the factors contributing to turnaround of Ashgabat, in the direction of Washington. On the one hand, there is discontent of Ashgabat of cooperation with Russia in the field of export of Turkmen gas and pressure from the Russian "Gazprom". In addition, the Turkmen government is concerned about the growth of the Russian military activity in the Caspian Sea. It is likely that the Turkmen authorities were dissatisfied with missile strikes from the waters of the Caspian Sea on Syria, uncoordinated with them. Most likely, the official Foreign Ministry protest, aimed to Nursultan Nazarbayev in connection with his statement about deterioration of the situation at the border during the October CIS summit, can be explained by the fear of military intervention of Russia in order to protect the Turkmen-Afghan border. Despite the alarming information coming from different sources, Ashgabat said that calm is maintained there.
On the other hand, the project of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (TAPI) (Ashgabat sincerely believe in the reality of it), is actively supported by Washington. This project provides an outlet for Turkmenistan on an extensive market of South Asia, and it is a way for the United States to strengthen its influence in
the region. It is clear that a necessary condition for the realization of this project is the safety of the Turkmen-Afghan border and the settlement of the Afghan conflict. Ashgabat hopes that the U.S. will be able to ensure the security of the TAPI gas pipeline, the construction of which was scheduled for December 2015. We can not exclude the fact that Washington has promised Turkmen security assistance from Afghanistan in exchange for the placement of the U.S. Air Force at the airport Mary-2, which has long attracted the attention of the U.S. Points of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan exactly coincide with the route of the pipeline.30 This hypothesis is partially confirmed by the fact that the negotiations were held in secret in the Central Asian tour of John Kerry, and information on the outcome is virtually absent. An important place is given to the U.S. closest ally in the East - Japan -in the political game, which currently takes place in Turkmenistan. Washington is seeking to press China, which dominates the Turkmenistan economy, especially in its oil and gas sector.
According to the press, the main results of the Central Asian tour of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, held in late October, were achieved in Turkmenistan, where joint contracts were signed by US $ 18 billion.31 There is a disposition, based on preliminary agreements: Japan gets field "Galkanysh" and begins the construction of TAPI, which corresponds to the U.S. interests in the framework of the project "Greater Central Asia".32 Nevertheless, the reality of the implementation of the TAPI project is in serious doubt due to the situation in Afghanistan. Many Russian experts believe that Turkmenistan is not ready for a drastic revision of its relations with Russia and Ashgabat actions are largely the method of pressure on Moscow.
It is possible that ISIS can start active operations in the Turkmen direction and deliver strikes at the most important points of the country.
Beijing and Moscow will not look at it calmly. The U.S. can make a promise to complete, but will it do something for the safety of some distant Turkmenistan or not - this is a big question.33
As a result, we can say the following. First, there is a real threat from ISIS for Central Asia. This threat, which goes from the southern borders of the CIS, is a danger to Russia's national interests. Decisions of the October CIS summit in Kazakhstan aimed at its prevention. Second, Russia is ready to take on the additional responsibility of ensuring security in Central Asia, which is reflected in the growth of its military aid in the framework of the CSTO. Third, the necessary condition for the effectiveness of confrontation to the threat of terrorism is the strengthening of cooperation in the field of security in the region. Fourth, the lack of a proper level of this interaction provides an opportunity for the United States to be involved in the integration processes in Central Asia, and its main support here can be Turkmenistan. Currently the policy of Washington in Central Asia is aimed at curbing the integration processes of the Russian Federation (EAEC, CSTO) and China (SCO), to the diversification of export routes for energy resources of Central Asia, in particular through the implementation of the TAPI project, and to the strengthen its military and political presence.
Notes
http://conference.antiterror.rsbi.kz/index.php/doklads/36-kylbarakov
http://www.agentura.ru/press/about/jointprojects/ej/newthreat
http://nk.org/ua/geopolitika/ugroza-terrorizma-v-tsentralnoy-azii-26229
http ://ria.ru/world/20151006/1297857515.html
http ://www.fergananews.com/news/23 592
http ://inozpress.kg/news/view/id/47195
http://www.ng.ru/cis/2015-10-08/1_ashabad.html
http://regnum.ru/news/pjlit/1982475.html
http: //www. fergananews. com/ne ws. php? id=23584
10 http: //www. paruskg. info/2015/10/22/123 558
11 http://berlek-nkp.com/analitics/4653-cgi-berlek-edinstvo-uzbekistan-v-borbe-s-...
12 http ://ria.ru/world/20151002/1295004309.html
13 http://kabarlar.org/news/54498-v-batkene -zavershilis-ucheniya-zaslon-2015-...
14 http: //www. ferganane ws. com/news/23 979
15 http://mir24.1v/news/politics/13396276
16 http://inosmi.ru/snogbaltia/20151016/230870765.html
17 http://vpoanalytics.com/2015/09/15/sammit-odkb-v-dushanbe-...
18 http://mir24.tv/news/society/13384639
19 http://inozpress.kg/news/view/id/47161
20 http://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=2&nid=387670
21 http://stanradar.com/news/full/17317-ekspert-borjas-s-terrorizmom-uzbekistan-...
22 http://rn.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2015/10/20/145243 8.html
23 http://inozpress.kg/news/view/id/47161
24 http://www.vesti.ru.doc.html?id=2668723
25 http://www.news-asia.ru/view/tm/8907
26 http://www.ca-portal.ru/article.22889
27 http://www.news-asia.ru/view/tm/8907
28 http://lenta.ru/news/2015/03/30/usaturkmenia/
29 http ://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/23 51823
30 http://geo-politica.info/diplomatiya-molotova-v-turkmenii.html
31 http://rn.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2015/10/28/1455563.html
32 http://www.ng.ru/cis/2015-10-20/6_turkmenia.html
33 http://svpress.ru/war21/article/134373/
"Rossiya I novye gosudarstva Evrazi", IMEMO RAN, Moscow, 2015, № 4, pp. 6-71.
D. Vinitsky,
correspondent in Egypt for "Asia and Africa Today" magazine "ASIA AND AFRICA TODAY" STARTED PUBLISHING IN ARABIC
The publication of the magazine "Asia and Africa Today" has begun in the Arabic language in Egypt. The first issue of "Assia va Ifrikii al-Yawm" was printed in Cairo publishing house "Dar Anba
