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Elena Ionova,
Ph. D. (Hist.), Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences TURKMENISTAN AND PROBLEMS OF REGIONAL SECURITY
The leadership of Turkmenistan, just as that of other Central Asian countries, is greatly concerned with the problems of strengthening regional security. At present the countries of the region are choosing the main partners in this process: Kyrgyzstan relies on cooperation with Russia, Uzbekistan is more oriented to the United States, other countries, including Kazakhstan, are ready to cooperate with both Moscow and Washington. A special position of Turkmenistan is determined, first, by the status of neutrality it has proclaimed, and secondly, the closest geographical, economic and cultural proximity to Iran, a country in the crosshairs of the United States and its allies. Besides, the Republic of Turkmenistan is a country of the Caspian region, which is now distinguished by growing tension.
Turkmenistan is deeply interested in the preservation of stability in Iran, which is its important economic partner, especially in the oil-and-gas sphere. In 2012 supplies of Turkmen gas to Iran increased several times over, comprising 30 percent of its entire export of gas. It was despite the introduction of economic sanctions against Iran by western countries and Turkmenistan's inability to receive payment in dollars or euros. (In accordance with an agreement signed in December 2012, Turkmen gas is supplied to Iran on the barter basis, that is, Turkmenistan receives machines and equipment, agricultural products, and certain services in exchange).
Cooperation between the two countries is also developing in the sphere of hydro-energy construction and engineering. After
negotiations between the Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan and the Minister of Energy of Iran in early May 2013, a decision was adopted on participation of Iranian companies in the construction of hydropower plants and electricity transmission lines in Turkmenistan. Thus, Iranian capital will take direct part in the implementation of the program of hydro-energy development in Turkmenistan during the 2013 - 2020 period, which envisages an increase of electric power generation by five times. As a result, the volume of its export is to grow considerably, including via the territory of Iran. Besides, it is expected that the commissioning of the Kazakhstan - Turkmenistan - Iran railway (so-called the "North - South" line) will give an additional impetus to the development of trade and economic relations between the two countries. Its construction is now nearing completion.
Ashkhabad and Tehran hold similar views on the problem of the Caspian Sea area, and also on the actions of Azerbaijan in the area. The Caspian region is becoming a tangle of contradictions, notably, between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, and between Azerbaijan and Iran. As is known, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan cannot divide two big oil-and-gas deposits in the Caspian Sea basin. Taking into account the situation around Iran, the growing militarization of the Caspian region can have extremely negative consequences for Turkmenistan, just as for other countries in the region. In September 2012 Turkmenistan carried out its first naval exercises. The republican naval and air forces, as well as special units of the Ministry of National Security and Ministry for the Interior took part in the exercises.
This step was a reply to similar exercises carried out by Azerbaijan some time earlier, which is actively developing militarytechnical cooperation with Israel. The latter helped Azerbaijan to produce unmanned aircraft used for observation of oil deposits disputed by Turkmenistan and Iran, and also alone the Azerbaijani-Iranian
border. In the view of the coordinator of the united expert network "Jeen" N. Kharitonova, "Tehran cannot exclude the possibility of an enemy using its airforce from the territory of Azerbaijan." There is nothing surprising that Iran is stepping up the construction and deployment of its naval forces in the Caspian Sea at present.
Tension in the region has increased after the news that Kazakhstan agreed to allow the use of its Caspian port Aktau for transport-transit operations of NATO. President N. Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan announced this at a conference of the foreign ministers of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan at the end of April. In essence, as Russian experts maintain, this means the creation of a naval base of the United States and its allies on the Caspian Sea, which runs counter to the agreement on non-admission of the military presence of non-Caspian countries in the region signed by the five Caspian Basin countries. Kazakhstan also actively participates in increasing its naval forces in the Caspian Basin. In the spring of 2012 it commissioned its first missile-armed vessel, and this year it plans to add another two such ships armed with more powerful and up-to-date missiles.
Taking into account these factors, one has to agree with the view of a Dutch expert on Central Asia A. Tibold, who believes that "Turkmenistan tries to show that it is ready to protect its interests and territories in case of a conflict between the West and Tehran." However, people in the Caspian Basin countries taking part in the arms race in the region, judging by many things, are coming to realize the danger of the exacerbation of contradictions in the conditions of the growing terrorist threat. On April 15 a meeting took place of representatives of the five Caspian Basin countries at which they discussed the draft of an agreement on preventing extraordinary situations in the Caspian Sea and liquidating their consequences.
The exacerbation of tension in the Caspian region renders more problematic the implementation of the project of a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, supported by the United States and the European Union, which is supposed to take Turkmen gas along the bottom of the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and further on, via Turkey, to Europe. The Russian Federation and Iran actively opposed this project, which was initiated in the early 1990s. As V. Putin stated at the RF - EU summit in June 2012, "Moscow will not consider legitimate any decisions on the Caspian region adopted without consensus." Ashkhabad will hardly be ready to spoil relations with its leading economic partners. Besides, there are contradictions between the two rivals -- Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan -- standing in the way of the implementation of the project.
Another attempt to realize this project undertaken by the European Union at the beginning of 2012, has failed, and there are no sign of any progress in this respect. Moreover, Azerbaijan's news service circulated a statement on May 10 to the effect that the project of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline would not be implemented due to the withdrawal of direct sponsors, including the United States, from it.
Today relations with the Russian Federation are not among the main foreign-policy priorities of Turkmenistan. Nevertheless, despite the fact that Turkmen gas has ceased to be an important "energy factor" in the relations of the two countries, the Russian Federation remains an important energy partner of Turkmenistan. In 2012 the volume of Turkmen gas deliveries to the Russian Federation amounted to 10 billion cubic meters, and in 2013 the Russian "Gazprom" Company reduced it to 7.5 billion cubic meters. New spheres of cooperation are developing, for instance, ship-building. The Russian "Krasnoye Sormovo" shipyard has built four oil tankers for Turkmenistan, which transport crude oil and oil products in the Caspian Sea basin.
Although Turkmenistan is not part to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or any other integration association in the post-Soviet area, except the CIS, the country's leaders realize full well that the preservation of regional security is impossible at present without cooperation with Russia. During a visit of Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkmenistan in April 2013 a cooperation program between the ministries of foreign affairs of the two countries was adopted. It envisages, among other things, regular consultations between the ministries concerning the situation in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Recently, Turkmenistan has noticeably broadened ties with Ukraine and also with the most development neighbor in the region -Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan's parliament has ratified a program of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine for 2013 - 2014, which envisages an active participation of the Ukrainian side in modernizing and repairing arms and military equipment of Turkmenistan, the development of the repair base of the Turkmen airforce and naval forces, as well as increase of deliveries of military hardware, etc. to Turkmenistan. In February 2013 the President of Turkmenistan G. Berdymuhamedov agreed with the Ukrainian authorities on direct supply of Turkmen gas (up to 10 billion cubic meters) to Ukraine. However, some of these agreements cannot go into force without Moscow's approval, inasmuch as Turkmen gas can reach Ukraine only through the territory of the Russian Federation.
The joint use of the gas pipeline to China, commissioned in 2009, has been another factor contributing to the development of Turkmen - Kazakh relations. The recent visit to Kazakhstan of Turkmenistan's President G. Berdymuhamedov has given a fresh impetus to the development of friendly relations between the two countries. The visit was timed for the opening of a railroad haul
between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which is part of the railway line being built from Kazakhstan to Iran via Turkmenistan. One of the crucial subjects of negotiations was the Caspian Basin; it was confirmed that both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan share the view that the Caspian Sea is the common patrimony of the five Caspian Basin countries.
However, the principal questions on the agenda of G. Berdymuhamedov's visit were those of ensuring regional security, that is, prevention of the spreading of extremist ideology, activities of criminal groupings dealing with drug trafficking, arms smuggling, slave trade, etc. Turkmenistan stated that it was ready to cooperate with Kazakhstan on these problems in a bilateral and multilateral format, jointly with other countries of the region and international organizations.
It looks likely that official Ashkhabad is going to take a more active part in ensuring collective security. Among other things, it displays greater interest in multilateral interaction within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is largely due to the strengthening ties between Turkmenistan and China. (In 2012 almost half of all Turkmen gas export, amounting to 40.3 billion cubic meters, was meant for China. Within the next few years Turkmenistan plans to increase gas deliveries to China to 65 billion cubic meters).
However, official Ashkhabad considers the UN to be the main platform for multilateral cooperation, including in peaceful settlement of the situation in Afghanistan. The development of relations with this international organization has taken pride of place among the foreign-policy priorities of neutral Turkmenistan. A framework development program for Turkmenistan for the years 2010 to 2015 has been implemented within the UN framework. There was a meeting in April 2013, which discussed the results of the program implementation and
prospects of further interaction for the coming year. Besides, it became known that despite harsh criticism on the part of the UN Council on human rights, Turkmenistan has been elected vice-chairman of the European Economic Commission.
The President of Turkmenistan G. Berdymuhamedov has time and again spoken for a greater peacekeeping role of the UN and proposed to render more assistance to the newly-formed Regional center of the UN on preventive diplomacy for Central Asia. Special attention to Turkmenistan on the part of the UN can be explained by the fact that it is regarded as an important link in improving the economic life and general situation in Afghanistan. On April 18 - 19 there was the first meeting of the joint coordination working group on the construction project of the new Turkmenistan - Afghanistan -Tajikistan railway line, in which representatives of the three countries took part. The new railway line should be an important link of the international system of transit cargo transportation. To date, design work for the first 85-kilometer stretch on Turkmen territory has been completed.
Ashkhabad and Kabul have plans to construct a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. Turkmenistan's President G. Berdymuhamedov has recently reiterated the importance of this project and called for stepping up work on it. However, most experts believe that these plans are unfeasible due to the very unstable situation in Afghanistan and also rather complex relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan and between Pakistan and India. It would be more realistic to develop Turkmen-Afghan cooperation in supplies of Turkmen electric energy to Afghanistan for building big infrastructural projects in that country with the help of foreign investors.
"Rossiya i noviye gosudarstva Evrazii," (Institute of World economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences), Moscow, 2013, pp. 91-96.
