CC BY
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Elena Kuzmina,
Ph. D. (Political sciences), Institute of Economics RAS TURKMENISTAN AT THE PRESENT STAGE: PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES OF DEVELOPMENT
Turkmenistan is the most closed state of the CIS. On the one hand, the processes going on there are common to all countries of Central Asia. On the other, the political and economic system that has come into being there has been, and remains, the closest as compared with those existing in the neighboring countries, and it has not changed since the change of the head of state. Meanwhile, the country with its rich hydrocarbon wealth as a promising export resource is becoming an object of conflicting interests of various geopolitical actors, both regional and global.
Turkmen society consists ethnically of several regional groupings: Akhal-Tekin, Mary, Kizil-Arvat, Balkan and Tashauz (Northern groups). The first president S. Niyazov and the incumbent head of state G. Berdymuhamedov represent the Akhal-Tekin (Ashkhabad) Turkmens. The former pursued a policy of regional-tribal hegemony and the strengthening of Akhal-Tekin positions with a view to consolidating personal power.
In the early 1990s S. Niyazov, or Turkmenbashi (the father of Turkmens), as he was nicknamed, was very cautious with regard to other regional political clans, especially the strongest ones - Mary, Kizil-Arvat and Chardzhou. But by the beginning of the 21st century he succeeded in removing all important figures of these clans from the political scene. Actually, under Turkmenbashi the regime in Turkmenistan could rightly be called one of a monarchic type. In 1999 the People's Council conferred the title of head of all Turkmens and the status of lifelong president of the country on Saparmurad Niyazov.
Despite the extension of the People's Council powers in 2003, the supreme power of the head of state remained unlimited.
President G. Berdymuhamedov, who came to power in early 2007, began the country's modernization and at the same time became busy with the strengthening of his own personal power. During the four years of his rule he carried out several reforms of the state management system.
The political modernization of the country began with creating bodies dealing with human rights. In the summer of 2007 the State Commission for examination of citizens' complaints about the activities of the law-enforcement agencies was formed under the President of the Republic. Simultaneously, an Interdepartmental Commission was set up to observe fulfillment of the country's international commitments in the sphere of human rights. In November 2007 a State Commission for improvement of the state legislation came into being, and another one for reforming the country's legislative system for a period from 2008 to 2012. In early 2008, on the initiative of President G. Berdymuhamedov, the Institute of the State and Law under the country's President was set up, which was supposed to provide a scientific foundation of the legislation and legal procedure.
On September 26, 2008, a new version of the Constitution of the Republic was adopted. It abolished the People's Council. Its functions were redistributed between the President, parliament, government and Supreme Court. The number of deputies to parliament was increased from 50 to 125. Many experts note that the new Constitution does not broaden the powers of parliament, but extends and strengthens presidential powers. Under the Constitution the President appoints the heads of the regional bodies of power, members of election commissions, and other high officials. In turn, parliament has the right to appoint presidential elections and adopt the decision of his early
removal from office due to illness. Parliament also decides who of the deputy chairmen of the cabinet of ministers can be appointed temporary head of state in an event of his inability to fulfill his duties for some or other reasons. The premise that the acting President should not take part in elections was retained. The new Constitution also mentions the existence and work of the Security Council. It pays special attention to the development of a market economy based on private, public and other forms of ownership.
Then the time for reforming the country's electoral system has come. In October 2008 President G. Berdymuhamedov signed a law on the elections of deputies to parliament of Turkmenistan, in accordance with which elections would be held by single member electoral districts with the five-year term of office. The powers of the deputies elected are recognized after publication of election results in the press. In December 2008 the elections to the parliament of the fourth convocation took place, which were monitored for the first time by foreign observers representing the CIS Executive Committee, Interparliamentary Assembly, diplomatic corps and the OSCE. They expressed doubts as to the openness of the elections but pronounced them valid.
In April 2009 a new version of the Law of Turkmenistan on the elections of members of local councils was adopted. On July 26 these elections were held on an alternative basis.
Changes concerned not only parliamentary structures, but also local administrative bodies. In December 2008, President G. Berdymuhamedov signed a decree confirming the status of the Council of Elders of Turkmenistan which determined the legal foundations of its activity.
The next step in the transformation of state power in Turkmenistan was the formation of several pro-government parties.
There is only one political party in the country - the pro-presidential Democratic party of Turkmenistan. The opposition parties, for example the "Vatan" movement, function abroad. Besides, there are the Movement of revival ("Galkynysh"), youth organization named after Mahtumkuli, Public organization of war and labor veterans, Union of women and Council of trade unions. In February 2010 President G. Berdymuhamedov put forward an initiative to organize the new Daikhan (peasant) party. He emphasized that the emergence of an opposition party in the country is an important event in its sociopolitical life He also said that if anybody expressed the wish to create a new political party, the authorities would be ready to register it this very year. The President initiated the adoption of a new law "On Political Parties."
The multiparty system was also proclaimed in the previous Constitution, but the opposition was in a deplorable state. In actual fact, there is neither legal nor illegal opposition in the country. This is due to the political passivity of the population and actions of Turkmenistan's authorities. The latter organized show trials of a group of political figures of the country accused of "terrorist activity" against the President in 2002. True, there are several organizations abroad which call themselves "political opposition," but they have no influence on the political situation in the country. The problems of the opposition are connected with the fact that practically all its leaders were members of the country's leadership at one time or another and helped Turkmenbashi create the still existing authoritarian state system.
President G. Berdymuhamedov continues Niyazov's tactics of constantly removing and changing officials at all levels under pretext of their participation in economic crimes. Thus, it is only natural that the country's political elite has reacted very weakly to the initiatives of the President, fearing possible reprisals for political activity in new parties.
A campaign is going on in Turkmenistan aimed at "desacralization" of the person of Saparmurad Niyazov (Turkmenbashi). A decision was adopted in 2008 to remove the gilded Arch of Neutrality crowned by the revolving statue of the first president of Turkmenistan Saparmurad Niyazov from the center of Ashkhabad to its southern outskirts, the "Niyazov calendar" was abolished, and the state anthem glorifying Turkmenbashi was changed. His name is no longer mentioned in the official oath of allegiance to Turkmenistan, his portraits were removed from banknotes and the Presidential Standard. G. Berdymuhamedov has also ordered to remove material about S. Niyazov's father from the exposition devoted to the Great Patriotic war of 1941-1945. The authorities explain their actions by the needs of the course aimed at the country's integration in the world community.
However, some experts maintain that simultaneously with the elimination of Niyazov's personality cult President G. Berdymuhamedov is gradually establishing the "cult of his own personality," primarily in the ideological sphere. It's not for nothing that in place of Turkmenbashi's written works, the libraries, offices, etc. are now being filled by books of the incumbent president. It became known that the main Muslim temple in Mary Region would be called "Gurbanguly-Hajji." This is just one example of a change of ideological symbols in Turkmenistan.
There have been changes in the educational system, too. It became 10-year again, and the five-year term of study at institutes and university was restored (under S. Niyazov there was a two-year term). But school and institute curricula and study programs have not practically been changed. S. Niyazov's main written work "Ruhname" was removed from there, but replaced with works of the incumbent president.
In June 2010 he issued an order allowing ministries and departments to open secondary trade schools. Such educational establishments have been opened at the ministry of construction, ministry of power and industry, ministry of agriculture, and at the government-run concerns "Turkmenneftegazstroi" and "Turkmengaz." Skilled workers and technical specialists will be trained on the basis of two-to-three-year study programs. The scientific potential of the country is also restored: the Academy of Sciences and the Higher Testing and Evaluation Committee are now functioning. In accordance with a decree on improvement of the scientific system of Turkmenistan, the Higher Council on Science and Technology under the President of the Republic has been set up and it will have a special Fund of Science and Technology. These institutions will work out and implement the state's scientific and technological policy, carry on joint programs in fundamental sciences, introduce results of scientific research and scientific and technical achievements in the country's economy, put forward proposals aimed at raising the country's scientific and technological potential, take part in training highly-skilled specialists, organize scientific and technical research, develop international scientific-technological cooperation, etc.
At a meeting of the cabinet of ministers in June 2009 the President formulated the concept of the further development of Turkmenistan's science oriented to speeding-up innovation processes in the economy and working out a comprehensive state program of scientific-technological development for its consistent and effective implementation. These steps are definitely a good impetus to the policy of the modernization of the country's economy.
In October 2008 a decree of the President was published on the creation of a special commission regulating the activity or creative workers - writers and poets, theater and film directors, etc. The
commission has the right to evaluate the artistic level of literary and art works and give permission for their publication, staging or filming. The state has the right to control the import of literature and other printed matter from abroad, and also to control access to and the use of the Internet.
Despite its new policy of "openness" Turkmenistan continues to remain a "closed" state, at least due to inaccessibility of economic and statistical information, which complicates the process of analyzing the economic situation in the country.
The specific features of the national economy are determined by several factors. First, the presence of big deposits of hydrocarbon raw materials, estimated by international experts at 20.8 billion tons of oil and 24.6 trillion cubic meters of gas. Apart from that, more than a thousand promising oil and gas structures have been discovered, as well as over 150 deposits of which one-third is being developed. More than 160 deposits of solid minerals have been prospected, including Celestine, coal, sulfur, mineral salts, kaolin, bentonite, ozokerite, carbonate, mineral pigments, etc. Secondly, the closed character of the economy: foreign investors are allowed only to help develop deposits difficult for working. Another factor is geographical closeness. Turkmenistan has no access to the open sea and is surrounded by states the political situation in which makes it difficult to deliver Turkmenistan's hydrocarbons to world markets. Turkmen gas has been exported to Europe by Russia through its own pipelines for quite a long time. After the new Turkmenistan - China pipeline was opened in December 2009, Turkmen gas reached China.
Among the main industrial branches there are extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, electric power industry, textile industry and construction. A specific feature of the present-day industrial development is the rapid growth of the manufacturing and processing
branches: chemistry and petrochemistry, machine-building and metal-working industries, and light and food industry. In 2009 the metallurgical industry came into being: near Ashkhabad a plant was commissioned producing building bars, angle plates, channel beams, etc. with an annual capacity of 160,000 tons. As to agriculture, the main emphasis is laid on cotton- and grain-growing. The creation of a merchant navy was started in the early 2000s.
During the period of independence several economic development programs have been adopted. In 1992 the "10 Years Stability" program was endorsed, which was supposed to preserve the system of planned economic management along with gradual liberalization of the economy and continue to improve direct state management and regulation at the initial stage of reforms. In 1999 a "Strategy of socio-economic transformations for a period up to 2010" was adopted, which envisaged transformations in the four priority spheres ensuring economic, food, social and ecological security of Turkmenistan. In 2004 another "Strategy of economic, political and cultural development of Turkmenistan up to 2020" was adopted, according to which the GDP of the republic should have grown by 14.6 times, and by 2010 - by 28.4 times.
Privatization policy was one of the directions of the economic reform. According to the law on "denationalization and privatization of property in Turkmenistan" (1992), first of all small enterprises in the sphere of services, light industry, construction and agriculture were to be privatized. By January 1, 2008, two thousand 130 objects of state property were privatized. In agriculture irrigated lands, as well as 89 percent of horned cattle and fowl, and over 61 percent of sheep and goats were given over to private persons. Tenants till 70 percent of plough-land. Free economic zones have been established (the law on it was adopted in 1998), but the first such zone was officially announced
in the city of Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk) on the shore of the Caspian Sea for the development of tourism.
When the new president came to power, the country's authorities proclaimed a course to develop small and medium-sized business, planning to raise its share in the GDP to 45 percent by 2015, and in the future - to 70 percent (in 2008 its share was about 40 percent). For this purpose amendments to the Tax Code were made at the end of 2005 for private enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, according to which the standard tax rate from gross income was fixed at two percent, which made it possible to reduce document turnover and simplify the procedure of calculating and paying taxes. As a result, the tax burden on small enterprises diminished by almost fifty percent.
Customs legislation is also changed. In 2008 the President issued a decree confirming the list of commodities on which customs duties were either considerably reduced or abolished altogether for legal entities and individual entrepreneurs.
In February 2010 the State Commission on support of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship was set up. In accordance with the law "On state support of small and medium-sized business," the commission's work will be devoted to stepping up and helping entrepreneur activity in various spheres of the country's economy.
The basis of the agricultural reform was the introduction of private ownership of land. Transfer of land over to peasants (up to 50 hectares for personal ownership, and up to 500 hectares for long-term lease) will do no harm to collective farms. The minimal term of lease is increased to ten years. Inheritance of land is also envisaged. Foreign investors can be given state-owned land on lease. The situation in the agrarian sector is rather complex. Private producers of strategically important cotton and grain receive credits from the state on favorable terms and are exempt from taxes. The government compensates 50
percent of their expenses on seeds, chemical and mineral fertilizer, and various technical services.
The reforms which are underway in Turkmenistan and the minimal openness of its economy have yielded certain results (see the table below). In 2005 - 2010 Turkmenistan developed at sufficiently high rates. According to official data, the annual increase of the GDP in 2007-2008 exceeded 10 percent, in 2009 - 6.1 percent, despite the world financial crisis, and in 2010 - 9.2 percent.
In the crisis year of 2009 Turkmenistan registered a stable increase of macroeconomic indices, although it was somewhat lower as compared with preceding years. Industrial output grew unevenly by individual branches. The greatest increase was in oil production - by 79.3 percent, chemical industry - by 50.6 percent, electric power generation - by 37.8 percent. Agricultural production also grew thanks to good harvest.
Table
Basic macroeconomic indices
Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP
Sbillions 13.89 15.36 18.48 20.2
Growth rates,% 110.9 110.5 106.1 109.2
Per capita S 2,138 2,369 2,843 3,101
Investments in basic assets, Sbillions, in current prices 1.61 5.44 8.75 10.0
Foreign trade turnover
Sbillions 7.6 8.9 13.4 17.6 18.3 17.9
Growth rates,% 105.5 117 149 132 103.8 97.6
Export, Sbillions 4.3 6.1 8.9 11.9 9.3 9.7
Import, Sbillions 3.3 2.8 4.5 5.7 9.0 8.2
Trade balance, S billions 1.0 3.3 4.4 6.2 0.3 1.5
National currency exchange rate (manat/S) 5,200 5,200 5,200 14,250 2,85 2,85
Source: Data of the Trade Mission of the Russian Federation in Turkmenistan.
According to official data, the growth of solvency and real incomes of the population continued in 2009: average monthly wage and salary in the republic increased by 10.4 percent during the year, with zero inflation, and domestic trade turnover - by 15.9 percent. The revenue part of the state budget was fulfilled by 102.3 percent, and the expenditure part -- by 93.9 percent. The high rates of the country's socio-economic development make it possible to replenish in a planned character the Stabilization Fund created in 2008.
During 2009 the denomination of the Turkmen currency took place. The $ exchange rate to the new national currency was 2.85 manat to $1, as against 14,200 manat per $1 by December 31, 2008. True, the manat was not officially devalued. The rate of exchange was established by the country's authorities, but not on the basis of currency bidding.
Simultaneously, the government took measures to reduce the influence of the global financial crisis: stricter control was introduced over the currency regime and the bank system and the tax and budget sphere were strengthened. According to a decree of the President, a commission was set up to analyze the negative influence of the world financial-economic crisis on the country's economy and work out corresponding measures to counteract it.
The discovery of new gas deposits and a change in the law on foreign investments have led to a considerable increase of the inflow of direct foreign investments from 2009, mainly in the sector of hydrocarbon raw materials' extraction.
In 2010 the growth rates of the GDP by branches amounted to: in the sphere of industry - 108.1 percent, construction - 116 percent, transport and communications - 112.2 percent, trade - 111.3 percent, agriculture - 107.8 percent, services - 106 percent. Compared to the similar period of 2009, production of electricity, gas, oil and oil
products, mineral fertilizer, cement, building materials, cotton fiber, cotton yarn, knitted goods and garments, footwear, leather, medicines, fish and fish products, bread, milk and dairy, and other agricultural products have increased.
The fuel-and-energy sector, which is crucial for the national economy has been further developed. The growth rate of gas extraction reaches 116.5 percent compared to the 2009 level. The export volume of natural gas increased by 33.6 percent. In 2010 electric energy generation increased by three percent as against the preceding year, and the volumes of its export are dynamically growing. In 2010 the construction of another gas pipeline to Iran was started, foundations were laid for building a gas trunk pipeline "Turkmenistan -Afghanistan - Pakistan - India" and the construction of the country's biggest "East - West" pipeline began, which is being built by Turkmen companies.
A few words would be appropriate concerning the energy security of Turkmenistan as a factor of consolidation of its international position. It is necessary to protect energy carriers from the moment of fuel-and-energy production to the moment of its delivery to customers. Lately, the situation has become complicated due to international terrorism. There have been blasts along supply lines in Turkmenistan, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria and elsewhere. This calls for more energetic measures to protect them.
Turkmenistan has substantial reserves of gas and oil and is one of the biggest producers of electric energy in the region. Today thousands of promising gas and oil deposits are discovered in the republic both on land and in the sea.
Turkmenistan is working actively to deliver its fuel-and-energy supplies to world markets. Since this problem is quite complicated, the country's President addressed the UN in September 2007, putting
forward the initiative to create an international mechanism for reliable protection and security of fuel-and-energy transportation.
Turkmenistan is also taking steps to diversify the export of its fuel-and-energy resources and find other routes for their transportation to world markets. One of the first steps in this direction was an international high-level conference on April 23-24, 2009, in Turkmenistan to discuss the problem of fuel-and-energy transportation and its security.
The revenue part of the state budget in 2010 amounted to 125 percent, the expenditure part - 92 percent as compared to the preceding period. The means received from the budget surplus in 2010 were channeled to the Stabilization Fund.
In the view of experts at international organizations, Turkmenistan is being reformed too slowly. Transfer to market relations began only in 2009. Despite the denomination of the national currency, the bank system is not large enough. The main problem, as analysts from the European Reconstruction and Development Bank think, is conditioned by the domination of state banks, which seriously hampers access of the private sector to finances and at the same time prevents solution to the more comprehensive task, namely, diversification of the economy.
In May 2010 the government adopted a national program of the socio-economic development of Turkmenistan for the years 2011 -2030. It envisages the diversification of the economy and greater competition and recognized the importance of further market and institutional reforms. For the first time privatization in the sphere of small and medium-sized business is included in the program. Priority directions of the structural reforms were also outlined. First, it is an improvement of the business and investment climate with a view to drawing more direct investments, diversifying the economy, alleviating
the administrative burden and simplifying the registration procedures and licensing of private enterprises. Secondly, it is an increase in the share of the private sector in the bank system. The reform of the bank legislation should contribute to broader access to credits, which is of decisive importance to small and medium-sized enterprises, inasmuch as they have had no access to credits necessary for their operation and development so far.
Tenders have been announced for the privatization of certain government-run companies of the country. In August 2010 the government submitted new bills to parliament on bank and currency regulation with a view to improving the national bank system by transferring it to the international standards of accounts and greater transparency of bank operations.
The growth of the country's industrial potential is to take place along several main directions. So far indisputable priority has been given to the development of the oil-and-gas complex up to 2020. It is envisaged that by the year 2020 the production of oil and gas condensate will increase to 100 million tons of gas - up to 240 billion cubic meters.
Participation of foreign companies in the modernization and development of the country's oil and gas industry until 2020 is legislatively conformed by the President's decree on setting up joint ventures with foreign firms. Turkmenistan has long-term agreements on cooperation in the gas sphere with Russia, China and Iran and has signed a memorandum on cooperation in the energy sphere with the European Union. The government of Turkmenistan stated that in 2010 foreign investments in the energy sector, in which joint ventures operate, would grow by 46 percent - up to $4.1 billion, as against $2.8 billion in 2009. However, official statistics has given no data on this score so far.
One of the priority directions in the development of the oil-and-gas complex has been the development of the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian Sea shelf. Its Turkmen sector is divided into 32 blocks. According to specialists' calculations, the expected resources of the Caspian Sea shelf are estimated at 12 billion tons of oil and six trillion cubic meters of gas. Movable sea installations of the latest type are used for extracting oil from the sea shelf on "Block-1."
Much attention is devoted not only to extraction, but also refinery of hydrocarbon raw materials: the oil refinery has been reconstructed in the city of Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk). Within the framework of this project an oils-producing plant and a cat-cracking installation have been built. The investments of Japanese and Turkish oil companies made it possible to modernize the cat-reforming process at the plant and increase the production of high-grade petrol by 2.5 times. The country's second biggest oil refinery - Seidin plant - has been reconstructed. The program envisages the construction of new oil refineries in Balkan district in 2025 and in Akhal and Mary districts in 2030. A new gas refinery is built with one-billion cubic meters capacity on the Yashyldepe deposit. It will also process 50,000 tons of liquefied gas and 200,000 tons of gas condensate a year. The entire complex includes 40 technological and engineering-communication objects at a contract cost of $42 million.
Under Turkmen-Chinese agreements, an investment project on the development of the gas infrastructure and the construction of gas refinery with a capacity of five billion cubic meters a year were started on the Samandepe deposit in July 2008, which will supply the transnational Turkmenistan - China gas pipeline.
In the early 21st century Turkmenistan began to diversify its gas communication lines. These operations were intensified in 2009 - 2010. Due to great losses caused by a stop to the import of raw materials by
Russia for more than six months, their extraction was drastically curtailed, and about 150 wells were suspended. As a result, only 38 billion cubic meters of gas were extracted in 2009, by 50 percent less than planned.
At the end of 2009 the above-mentioned "Turkmenistan - China" gas pipeline began to function, and during 2010 about six billion cubic meters of gas were supplied through it; the pipeline is expected to reach its project capacity of 40 billion cubic meters by 2013. By that time Turkmenistan will export about 30 billion cubic meters of gas via this pipeline (a contract has been signed between CNPC and "Turkmengaz" on supplying gas to the People's Republic of China for a term of 30 years, beginning from 2009). Additional 10 billion cubic meters of gas will be supplied by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. However, the prices of the Turkmen gas supplies have not yet been agreed upon. One of the main factors to be considered is gigantic distances from Turkmen gas deposits to the Chinese border (1,700 kilometers) and its further transportation across Chinese territory - the main regions of gas consumption in China are in its coastal provinces (another six thousand kilometers). According to some sources, the Chinese side offers considerably lower prices than European consumers. So far the low price of $120 for one thousand cubic meters is backed up by the credit of the State Bank of China amounting to $4 billion for the development of South Iolotan.
On January 6, 2010, the 30-kilometer-long gas pipeline to Iran (Dovletbat - Serakhs - Hangeran) was commissioned. It will make it possible to bring the volume of Turkmen gas deliveries to Iran to twenty billion cubic meters annually, with due account of the already functioning Korpedzhe - Kurtkui gas pipeline.
Despite the fact that Russia and Turkmenistan have agreed on the export of gas to the volume of up to 30 billion cubic meters annually,
this figure is the upper limit depending on the requirements of Ukrainian and European markets. According to Russian statistical data, deliveries of Turkmen gas to the Russian gas company "Gazprom" amount to about 11 billion tons in 2010, that is, almost four times less than in 2007 - 2008. However, this agreement is more advantageous for Russia than the previous one. According to the contract signed at the end of 2008, "Gazprom" had to buy about 50 billion cubic meters annually (two-thirds of the entire extracted amount) at a price of $375 for one thousand cubic meters, and now, in the conditions of a sharp drop in prices of gas in Europe due to the existing crisis, in considerably smaller volumes and at a lower average European price of about $190.
The European Union still hopes to get supplies of Turkmen gas through the Caspian and Black seas. Turkmenistan is a potential key supplier of gas to the Nabucco gas pipeline, which is the alternative to Russian gas pipelines. The implementation of this project is only possible if a strategic agreement is signed by the European Union on supplies of gas from Turkmenistan for a term of 30 years. Despite a certain improvement of the positions of the European Union during the preceding years (the 2008 memorandum on deliveries of 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually), the framework document on the investigation of the route of deliveries from the German RWE (2009), and also Turkmenistan's intention to supply this pipeline with about 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually, no concrete decisions on the construction of this pipeline has been adopted as yet. The European parliament has agreed to unprecedented political concessions by ratifying the agreement between the European Union and Turkmenistan, despite the situation with human rights in that country.
The implementation of the project of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is retarded and made more complicated by the absence of a
border delimitation treaty between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, whose gas transportation system is connected with Turkey by the South-Caucasian pipeline.
Turkmenistan is ready to supply gas to Europe only via the territory of Iran or Russia. The already-mentioned new gas pipeline to Iran can be used for the purpose. But this idea will hardly be supported by Washington which has deprived the Nabucco pipeline of gas resources for isolating Iran. True, agreements on the construction of the "Northern" and "Southern" flows practically leave no hopes for having a sufficient amount of Central Asian gas for this energy-and-fuel project. In order to fulfill the already signed export contracts Turkmenistan should have 80 - 90 billion cubic meters of gas and about 20 billion for the domestic market. Ashkhabad's intention to increase gas export to 125 billion cubic meters by 2015 (increasing it by 150 percent compared to 2008) is assessed by experts as unfeasible.
In May 2010 the construction of the biggest "East - West" gas pipeline began, which will be 1,000-kilometer long. This will make it possible to create a unified gas-pumping system of the country. Besides, in December 2010 an agreement was signed of a gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India about 1,730-kilometer long. Its annual capacity will be about 33 billion cubic meters of gas of which Pakistan and India will get 14 billion cubic meters each, and Afghanistan - five billion cubic meters. If construction begins in 2011, the pipeline may be ready by the end of 2015. However, the documents signed do not contain many important details - the exact date, the size of transit rates and conditions of financing. Besides neither the government of Afghanistan nor the NATO forces deployed in that country cannot guarantee security for the construction of the gas pipeline and its further functioning on the country's territory.
Turkmenistan has begun the diversification of its oil export (its share in 2009 amounted to about one-third of the total export of hydrocarbon raw materials) and started to pump up to 40,000 barrels of oil a day via the Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan oil pipeline. Turkmen oil now account for up to five percent of the total volume of oil pumped through this pipeline.
The textile industry is the second in importance branch of industrial production in Turkmenistan. National textile factories process about 40 percent of row cotton. The Turkmen-Turkish joint ventures controlling around 90 percent of the country's textile industry are the most stable and successful.
As to electric power generation and transmission, foreign investors are mostly interested in the reconstruction projects of the operating electric power plants and comprehensive servicing and maintenance of energy objects. They are ready to offer meteorological equipment and resource-saving technologies with the use of wind and solar energy. Russia, the United States, Germany and Turkey display special interest in partnership in this field.
Several international energy companies are ready to invest $3 billion in the project of modernizing the energy system of Turkmenistan. This project will be implemented in several stages and will hardly be completed before 2020. Along with the modernization project of Turkmenistan's biggest Balkanabat electric power plant, it is expected to triple electric power generation in the country by 2020.
The assessments of development prospects of the economy made by the country's leadership and international experts coincide. Both positively assess Turkmenistan's possibilities to restore economic growth rates. According to the International Monetary Fund's estimates, the extraction, refining and export of hydrocarbon raw materials enable the country not only to preserve its economic
positions, but also to strengthen them, all the more so since it succeeded to diversify the transportation of natural gas mined on its territory at the end of 2009.
The "Economic Strategy of Turkmenistan" proclaimed by its President G. Berdymuhamedov in May 2010 is aimed at effective integration of the country's economy in the world economy. For this purpose "the country will need a diversified and modernized industrial potential, developed transport and communication lines, high-quality market infrastructure, economic and legal guarantees, and conditions for drawing large-scale investments, and stability of the social and political systems." Due to the course aimed at the diversification of the national economy, the dependence of the state budget on the incomes from the fuel-and-energy complex was lowered in 2010. The agro-industrial complex, transport and communications, construction, textile and food industries were further developed. The creation of the national tourist zone "Avaza", construction of major projects of the transport and communication and industrial infrastructures, and implementation of municipal building program in the republican capital were continued. On the whole, more than 240 large-scale projects worth $12 billion were built in the country in 2010. The financing of the national budget for implementing economic strategy was backed mainly by the fuel-
and-energy complex of the country.
* * *
Thus, Turkmenistan is trying, as the other Central Asian countries, to carry out administrative and political reforms "from the top," without creating a real civil society, but strengthening presidential power. This is one of the specific features of the country's political culture. The Turkmen leadership attaches great importance to modernizing the economy and creating and consolidating the
manufacturing branches, relying on the incomes of the oil-and-gas branch. Slow-going reforms and transfer to a relative openness of the country give hopes to the West that Turkmenistan will gradually join world processes. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is cooperating more successfully with its neighbors - China, Iran and Russia.
"Mir peremen, "Moscow, 2011, No 2, pp. 75-90
Munzifon Babajanova,
Ph. D. (Hist.), Russian-Tajik University, Dushanbe POLYCULTURAL EDUCATION IN TAJIKISTAN: FIRST STEPS
Tajikistan is a country without an outlet to the sea with a population of seven million 124 thousand. Its geographic landscape is quite complex: 93 percent are taken by mountains, six percent of which are glaciers, and farm land occupies only seven percent of the entire territory. Seventy-three percent of the republican population live in rural areas, with two-thirds engaged in agriculture as the main source of existence. Tajikistan boasts rich water resources, which make it possible to grow crops intensively, especially cotton, which is the main agricultural plant.
Children comprise the greatest share of the population, 40 percent of it are people younger than 18.
Each person has the right to education irrespective of age, sex, nationality, and faith. Equal access to education ensures equal opportunities for disclosing the potential of the individual, achieving a higher level of education, and broadening scientific and technical literacy. The Declaration of Millennium considers a long and healthy life, education, worthy living standards, political and civil freedoms to
