Научная статья на тему 'From Fukushima to Libya: Politicization of Pipeline Rivalry on the Caspian Energy Scene'

From Fukushima to Libya: Politicization of Pipeline Rivalry on the Caspian Energy Scene Текст научной статьи по специальности «Социальная и экономическая география»

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Текст научной работы на тему «From Fukushima to Libya: Politicization of Pipeline Rivalry on the Caspian Energy Scene»

on in the region. And just such processes are going on at present in economy, ethnic-demographic structure and culture of the North Caucasus. The separate solutions for solving these problems do not exist, and they are not simply mutually connected but are mutually conditioned. The long-term, targeted and consecutive policy of complex regional modernization is a must.

Thus, the ethnic and religious identity is the dominant factor of the processes of constructing identity in the North Caucasus, while their intensity and direction are determined by historic and cultural pre-conditions within the framework of political process.

"De Caucaso: istoriko-etnograficheski almanah ", Karachaevsk, 2010, pp. 65-70.

V. Nikerov,

Political analyst (Ulyanovsk)

FROM FUKUSHIMA TO LIBYA: POLITICIZATION

OF PIPELINE RIVALRY ON THE CASPIAN

ENERGY SCENE

A vivid example of the politicization of energy projects, which turn from business plans to propaganda serials, is provided by the "Nabucco" gas pipeline project. Many people regard it as an "idée fixe" of American and European politicians.

The present round of politicization is developing in the context of the growing demand for natural gas after the man-triggered disaster at the Japanese "Fukushima" nuclear power plant and refusal of many European countries to continue the development of nuclear power production.

"Nabucco" vs the "Southern Flow" is one of the most bitter and prolonged battles in the war for the fuel-and-power future of Europe,

which exerts considerable influence on the countries of the Caspian Sea region. However, the present "Nabucco - Southern Flow" confrontation is developing in the new conditions precipitated by natural and man-induced cataclysms in Japan and the "Arab Spring" of 2011.

The chain of interconnected events in the spring and summer of 2011 caused a new and active phase of the rivalry of the two projects. The "Fukushima" disaster provoked a rise in the demand for natural gas in the world as a safer fuel. The civil war in Libya was responsible for the collapse of the local oil-and-gas industry. To boot, the government of Germany issued a statement at the end of May 2011 about the forthcoming closure of nuclear power plants in the country, which also boosted the demand for natural gas. According to the head of the Russian gas monopoly "Gazprom" Alexei Miller, a record-high demand for natural gas has been registered in Europe due to the developments in the Middle East, North Africa and Japan. In April "Gazprom" increased the volume of its gas deliveries to Europe by more than 21 percent, as compared with April of 2010.

This situation led the western mass media and analytical circles to assertions about the beginning of the "golden age" of natural gas. Two influential publications - "The Financial Times" and "The Wall Street Journal" printed articles about the "golden age" of natural gas all over the world. International fuel-and-energy research institutions spoke of this in the same vein. By experts' estimates at the International Energy Agency, the world consumption of natural gas can grow by more than fifty percent within the next twenty-five years.

This gave an additional impetus to gas pipeline rivalry in the Caspian region.

The "Nabucco" gas pipeline system: from European business idea to bitter politicization. Initially, this project had a purely business foundation. Participants in the consortium regarded it as a means for

getting new gas deliveries from the Caspian region and the Middle East. According to the "Nabucco" idea, the 3,900-kilometer-long pipeline should have brought Caspian and then Middle East gas, via Turkey, to Austria. The pipeline would bypass Russia and deliver gas through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to the distribution center near Vienna.

But soon political matters began to dominate the project, and business considerations were pushed to the background. The "Nabucco" project is now viewed as an additional instrument in the struggle against Russian fuel-and-energy policy in Central and Eastern Europe. The European supporters of this project are encouraged by the United States, claiming that "Nabucco" is a symbol of European solidarity, a new "Maginot Line" in the face of Russian domination in the sphere of gas deliveries to the European Union It was also said that the European Union should oppose Russian oil and gas, which came to replace the Cossack squadrons of the 19th century and tank divisions of the 20th century, as the instruments of political control over Europe.

However, observers who visited Brussels in the autumn of 2010 made a conclusion that there was still much confusion around this pipeline in Europe. First of all, because there are not enough volumes of gas for deliveries. But the obvious absence of the resource base does not stop the supporters of the "Nabucco" project, who continue to promote it.

Suffice it to recall the Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan oil pipeline. There were many skeptics in Russia and outside it concerning the pipeline. The project was nicknamed "geopolitical fantasy" and "pipeline to nowhere". Nevertheless, the Baku - Ceyhan oil pipeline was laid out and became a geopolitical triumph of the West in the Caspian basin. This means that it is too early to make geopolitical conclusions before final results are thoroughly analyzed.

Turkmen keys to "Nabucco": Caspian blow at Russian fuel-and-energy domination. The absence of sufficient resource base for "Nabucco" in Azerbaijan forced the European Union to turn to Turkmenistan. In recent years Ashkhabad has considerably increased its influence in the Caspian region as one of the major producers of gas. The Turkmen gas deposits are viewed by Europeans as the main source for filling the new gas pipeline. When a big delegation of fuel-and-energy experts from Russia was in Brussels in May 2011 to discuss the future of gas relations between the Russian Federation and the European Union, the latter's chief executive in the fuel-and-energy field Gunther Ettinger said that Europe's energy future would be based on gas from Central Asia.

If Azerbaijan becomes the country which will start "Nabucco" with the initial volume of natural gas, the further prospects of the pipeline and its capacity will depend on Turkmenistan. The latter favors the diversification of export routes, but it has not joined the project officially. Ashkhabad would like to sell its gas on Turkmenistan's border, which means that the "Nabucco" managers will have to take upon themselves the transportation of gas across the Caspian Sea, which is now torn by political and territorial disputes. At present Turkmenistan not only expressed the desire to sell its gas to Europe, but also takes certain measures in this direction. In November 2010 the vice premier of Turkmenistan's government Baimurad Hojamuhamedov said at the "Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan - 2010" conference that within the next five years his country would be able to deliver to Europe up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Besides, Turkmenistan also announced its desire to open a Trans-Caspian route for exporting gas jointly with Azerbaijan. Apart from that, Turkmenistan is building a domestic "East - West" gas pipeline with an

annual capacity of thirty billion cubic meters of gas to deliver gas from the rich eastern deposits to the Caspian Sea in the west.

Turkmenistan claims that the laying out of a pipeline on the sea bottom requires only an agreement between the parties concerned through whose sea sectors these pipelines will pass. This means that any two countries out of the five states having access to the Caspian Sea can lay out underwater pipelines by mutual agreement. This view was expressed by the President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov at the third summit of the Caspian states in Baku on November 18, 2010. Thus, Ashkhabad gave it to understand that the laying out of a pipeline in the national sectors of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan is an internal matter of these two countries, but not a common Caspian problem.

This is also in line with the interests of Azerbaijan, which supports the "Nabucco" project. It is ready not only to supply its fuel-and-energy resources to European markets, but also to give its communication lines for the export of Turkmen natural gas to Europe.

Thus, the southern fuel-and-energy corridor to deliver Azerbaijani and Central Asian oil and gas to Europe bypassing Russia can become a reality. So far it is not only Azerbaijan's fuel-and-energy resources are delivered to world markets, but also oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. According to Azerbaijan's state statistical committee, 860,400 tons of Turkmen oil were delivered to Europe by

pipelines by November 1, 2010.

* * *

Today we see the intensive phase of one of the sharpest geopolitical confrontations in the Caspian-Caucasian region: the "Nabucco" gas pipeline project supported by the European Union and the "Southern Flow" supported by Russia. The present round of the

confrontation is developing in the context of the growing demand for natural gas after the man-triggered catastrophes in Japan and plans not to use nuclear power in Europe, especially in Germany. Rivalry between "Nabucco" and "Southern Flow" is a result of mutual interdependence and the depletion of fuel-and-energy resources in the modern world.

Kaspiisky region: politika, ekonomikz, kultura,", Astrakhan 2011, No 3, pp. 101-107.

A. Klimenko,

Cand.Sc. (Military) (IFE of RAS) DESTABILIZING FACTORS IN RELATIONS BETWEEN KYRGYZSTAN AND UZBEKISTAN

The situation in Central Asia from the point of view of ensuring stability and security remains very complicated. The territorial and other related inter-state contradictions started to appear after disintegration of the USSR and at present are far away from being solved.

The demarcation of borders is one of the main knots of contradictions in relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. According to different data, from 70 to 100 disputed pieces of land exist along the perimeter of Uzbek-Kyrgyz border lengthy of 1300 km. Today, only the parts of the border in mountain ridges and valleys without essential differences remain having been delimitated. In particular, the disputes were caused by the parts of the boundaries along such water routes, as channels, rivers and water basins, where not only issues of territorial demarcation but also of water-economic settlement existed.

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