CC BY
11
Elena Ponomareva,
doctor of political sciences
Georgy Rudov,
doctor of political sciences
THE KNOT OF CONTRADICTIONS
IN THE MIDDLE ASIA
The politicians, characterized by strategic thinking, always paid special attention to the countries of the Central Asia (CA). The growth of interest to this region for the last months was connected primarily with the events in Kirghizstan logically resulted in the parliamentary elections on 10 October 2010. The geopolitical consequences of the elections fixing a wide split among the voters had many aspects. Some experts say that both the USA and Russia are the losers. In the historic perspective with due account of the long-term game arranged in the region by Washington and Beijing each observer should be ready to come to the complicated conclusions.
But the authors had to analyze the situation in the region not only due to the last information pretext. There is a direct evidence of prolongation of subtle political game and simultaneous rigid struggle for the Eurasia as a needed attribute of global leadership, where the Central Asia will become the principal geopolitical prize.
It is possible to win finally the struggle for Eurasia by depriving Russia of the footings in the Eastern Europe (Byelorussia and Ukraine) and in the Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Turkmenstan and Uzbekistan). The situation relating to the CA has good cause to be concerned about probable possession/loss by Russia of its geopolitical influence in the region and consequently of its role as a world force center.
The question is that since the end of the XX century for the first time in history the USA, a non-Eurasian power, became not only the
principal arbiter in relations among Eurasian states but also the mightiest power of the world. Under conditions of the global world, America regards Asia as a vitally important center of its economic development and growing political influence The world supremacy as a realization of American vital interests is not only proclaimed from all possible places, starting from scientific conferences and finishing with UN, but also is executed in a planned way. By means of military-political (NATO, PRM), financial (IMF, WB), economic (TNC, WTO) and public (mass media, NGO etc.) structures the USA succeeded not only to connect the most developed and influential states of Europe with America but also to penetrate in the protected zone of Russian influence - in the near abroad. However, the Trans-Atlantic politicians see well that the global supremacy of America directly depends on the answer to the question - for how long and to what extent efficiently there will be kept its supremacy in the Eurasian continent. The latter may be kept by the control over the geo-strategic centers, namely -Europe, Russia, China, the Middle East and the Central Asia (CA). Some reasons should be marked concerning the CA.
- First, the new states of the region possess vast mineral and energy resources.
- Second, not only the ruling groups of these countries but also a great part of the population, under conditions of existing social-economic tension, may evaluate to Islam, which is one of the main opponents to the western system.
- Third, the geo-strategic position of the region, in case of location in this region of NATO bases, makes it possible to "cover" the whole territory of Russia and Big Asia.
- Fourth, it is a very significant transit zone, which may be used for different aims, starting from delivery of humanitarian cargoes and finishing with narcotic traffic.
The resource factor determines the situation in this case. Actually, Kazakhstan as the largest state in the region occupies the sixth place in the world in terms of reserves of natural resources, while only explored natural resources are evaluated for the sum of $ 10 trillion. The natural resources include oil (the extracted amounts make 2.7 billion tons), gas, titanium, magnum, tin, uranium, gold, non-ferrous metals etc. Kazakhstan occupies the following place in the world in terms of deposits: tungsten - 1st place, chrome and phosphor -the second place, lead and molybdenum - 4th place, the total amount of ore (16.6 billion tons) - 8th place. In Kazakhstan there are 14 perspective basins located on the whole territory of the country, where already 160 oil fields and gas deposits have been explored. With due account of the explored and prospected (by experts) oil fields make over 6.1 billion tons, the gas deposits make up 6 trillion cubic meters; the annual production is as follows: 25 million tons of oil and 8 billion cubic meters of gas, while the national needs account only for 1820 million tons of oil and 16-18 billion cubic meters of gas. At the same time, there exist in Kazakhstan about 300 big gold reserves, including 173 explored ones. There are in the republic the explored deposits of gem-quality diamonds. Over 100 coal deposits have been explored, including Eskibastus brown coal deposit and Karaganda coal basin with the deposit of 50 billion tons of coking coal. The colossal size of deposits of iron pyrite allows production of sulphuric acid and other chemical products significant for economy. It should be said that it is not the whole amount of riches in the republic!
On the territory of Uzbekistan there have been discovered over 2700 deposits of various natural resources, including a hundred types of mineral resources, including more than 60 resources involved in production of various industries. The explored 900 deposits are estimated for the sum of $ 970 million, while the total mineral capacity
is estimated for more than $ 3.3 trillion. The vast gas deposits and oil fields are located in the republic, and 60% of its territory is estimated as perspective for their extraction and development. Uzbekistan has also big coal deposits. The republic occupies the following rating in the world in terms of deposits: gold - the 4th (the 7th - its extraction), copper - 10th, uranium - 7th-8th (the 11th - its extraction). By present, the republic has explored 40 deposits of precious metals, 20 -of marble, 15 - gabbro and granite. Many deposits of decorative stones represent the unique biggest natural reserves in the whole Eurasian zone.
Tajikistan has big hydro-energy resources and occupies the 8th place in the world in terms of absolute water reserves (the 2d place in the CIS after the RF); water is the most significant strategic natural resource. The biggest hydro-electric stations are located in the republic: Nurekskaya, Sangtudinskaya, Ragunskaya. The dependence on water may have a significant impact on the political situation in the region. For instance, Uzbekistan imports 50% and Turkmenistan - 75% of the needed water resources. For the nearest decade, it is possible to make a prognosis for the serious struggle for Tajikistan as a main source of water in the CA.
Since 1975 Tajikistan started to produce the primary aluminum on the basis of cheap hydro-electricity. The republic itself used 20% of the produced aluminum, while the rest was transported to other regions of the USSR. The mine and coal industry is developed in Tajikistan. The most profitable among them remains the Shurabskoye deposit of brown coal. The gas is extracted from the deposits located in Vahshskaya and Gissarskaya valleys. At the same time, Tajikistan possesses unique deposits of silver (Bolshoy Kanimansur), gold, lead, zinc, uranium, bismuth, mercury, tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, fluorite, carbonate natural resources for chemical industry, boron. In
total, there are approximately 400 deposits of natural resources in the republic.
Turkmenistan is a vast subterranean treasure of oil and gas. The country is one of the main producers and exporters of energy carriers (natural gas - 61.8 billon cubic meters, oil products - 5.9 million tons, electric energy - over 12.8 billion kW/h) and occupies the 4th place in the world in terms of gas deposits after Russia, Iran and Qatar. Since 1999 Ashghabad annually increased the amount of extraction and export of gas. For the last years, new gas deposits were explored, big gas extraction and gas production complexes as well as gas transportation enterprises were constructed. The complete gasification of the country was finished, while the population shall obtain the "blue fuel" free of charge.
In total, 149 gas and gas condensate developed deposits with 4.97 trillion cubic meters, including 139 land deposits and 10 deposits in the Caspian shelf; 54 deposits with reserves of more than 2.6 billion cubic meters are in the process of development; and 11 deposits are prepared for development, 73 deposits are subject to exploration, and 11 deposits are put in prolonged storage. The state concerns "Turkmengas", "Turkmenoil" and "Turkmengeology" are in charge of development of the black and blue gold. "Turkmengas" produces over 80% of the total amount of gas. The modern drilling rigs are able to ensure sinking of deep boreholes (up to 6000 m).
However, despite a great size of exploration works, the territory of the country remains rather inadequately explored; only the upper layers of oil and gas deposits have been well explored. Taking into account the fact that only 25% of hydrocarbon resources have been explored and developed, there are great chances to transfer the prognosticated and perspective resources into the categories of industrial reserves. The eastern part of Turkmenistan (180 000 sq. km)
is the main region of gas extraction. Over a thousand exploration drilling rigs make up almost one third of the whole amount of republican drilling rigs. Over 60 gas and gas condensate deposits have been explored in this region, including gigantic deposit Dovletabad with capacity of 4.5 trillion cubic meters, as well as big deposits, such as Malay, Shatlyk, Odjak, Samantepe and others. The prognoses of scientist-geologists on vast hydrocarbon deposits in the south-east of the country (Mary velayat) have been proved. Just this region will become the main resource base for development of gas production for the next 15-25 years. The state corporations and concerns have projected to drill about 1300 operation and exploration boreholes.
For the next decades, the perspectives of the oil and gas national industry's development are primarily connected with development of the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea. According to the results of exploration works, the big deposits of hydrocarbon resources are concentrated at the depths from 2000-7000 meters: 12 billion tons of oil and 6.2 trillion cubic meters of gas, which accounts for more than a half of natural oil fields and about one forth of gas deposits in Turkmenistan. The new deposits are located mainly in two oil and gas basins - in the middle and southern parts of the Caspian Sea.
Exactly the gas resources of Turkmenistan determined the activities of China in establishment of contacts with the leadership of the Central-Asian republics, terminated by implementation of the large-scale project. After commission on 14 December 2009 of the gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China, namely its integral part Samandepe in the north-east of Turkmenistan, it is possible to speak about the change of the situation relating to the gas resources in the Middle Asia and of the geopolitical situation as a whole. Turkmenistan commissioned the "alternative" gas pipeline to China. The length of the gas pipeline makes 7 thousand km: Turkmenistan -
188 km, Uzbekistan - 525 km, Kazakhstan - 1293 km, China -4860 km. The projected capacity of 40 billion cubic meters shall be achieved only in 2012. The participation of the Chairman of the CPR in the ceremony of commission of the pipeline stresses the importance of the pipeline for the CPR.
Finally, Tukmenistan has colossal deposits of ozokerite (earth wax), mineral construction resources (gypsum, anhydrides, clay and loams, construction limestone, magma rocks, facing materials, stones for hand-made articles and others).
Kirghizstan has much lesser natural resources than other CA countries; however, it possesses hydro-energy capacities, rare-earth metals, local deposits of coal, oil and gas, nephelinum, mercury, bismuth, lead and zinc. According to recent data, rather great deposits of uranium were discovered which indirectly proves intensification of the struggle among different groups of interest since April 2010. Under conditions of gradual aggravation of world competition for mineral resources, the struggle for influence in this region will become more acute. The trend to "internationalization" of resources according to the Balkan scenario will rather go on. It pre-supposes the following sequence of actions: destabilization of the former united state (by means of overthrow of the ruling regime, intensification of separatist trends or by direct military interference); installation of de facto external governance for the sake of preventing (actually - maintaining) the chaos by means of foreign loans, by these countries joining the transnational structures, by raising the demands of democratization etc., and later by privatization of the resources and of the industrial bases through transnational companies and uncontrolled exploitation of resources.
Transformation of new states into a resource base has a direct impact on the general social-economic climate in the region, leads to
the catastrophic stratification and destitution of the population. The contemporary situation in the CA countries in terms of the number of people living at the level of living below the poverty line may be compared only with the initial period of capitalism for the beginning of the XX century: in Kazakhstan - 12.1%, in Kirghizstan - 40.0 %, in Tajikistan - 60.0%, in Turkmenistan - 30.0%, in Uzbekistan - 26.0%. The exit out of the "funnel" of neo-colonialism is only in the way of restoration of industry in the region's countries, by means of integration with Russia. Just Russia makes the proposal on the multilateral cooperation in the industrial, technological and communication spheres.
However, the geo-strategic significance of the CA for the world hegemon is determined not only by the resource component. And only the change of this space into a channel of narcotic traffic may be worse than the uncontrolled pillage of natural resources. The narcotics represent a direct threat to the national security of Russia. Russia may get rid of this challenge to its existence only by means of close cooperation with the countries of the Central Asia.
The traffic of narcotics as a way
of struggle for the space
The elaboration of the new, the most convenient and cheap routes of narcotics' transportation was the appropriate consequence of the collapse of the USSR and liquidation of the united system of border guards. Exactly on the debris of the Soviet Union there appeared the new, "northern" way of narcotics' shipment from the South Asia countries through the territory of the post-Soviet states to Russia and Europe.
For the second half of the 1990s, according to the expertise, the route was corrected. Particularly, the place of Osh in Kirghizstan was changed in its significance for Tajik Khudjandu (former Leninabad), which became a new focal point of narcotics' traffic. The criminal
groups of different countries started to create their transnational structures and to divide the territories. The intervention of NATO to Afghanistan, which lacked industrial production of opium beforehand, marked the second significant change of the main routes for narcotics' traffic for the decade. It is significant that most narcotics, shipped from Afghanistan, are officially confiscated on the borders with Tajikistan and Kirghizstan.
The disclosed networks showed that representatives of state organs and law enforcement bodies were included in the process of illegal trade and transportation of narcotics; and the lesser part of the general cargo was stopped in the Tajik and Kirghiz direction. Particularly, the crossing point of the borders of Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan was considered as vulnerable even in the Soviet times. Since 2003, the illegal channel of narcotics' traffic was mastered via Serahs, Kushka (villages near the border with Iran), Mary, Tedjen, Ashghabad and Turkmenbashi port in the Caspian Sea in the direction to Azerbaijan and Russia. The other route is laid through former Chardjou and further along Amu-Darya through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Russia. The Uzbek route goes from Termez via Karshi, Bukhara, Urgench to Nukus and further to Kazakhstan and Russia. But the main part of narcotics comes to Uzbekistan from the territory of Tajikistan.
In 2010, the UN report on narcotics mentioned that the shipment of narcotics from Afghanistan to Russia might be executed via Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. According to the available data, narcotics mainly are shipped from Tajikistan to Osh and further by transit via Kazakhstan come to Russia. The illegal turn over goes on mainly by personal and commercial automobile transportation, for instance, sometimes in relatively small quantity.
Out of the CA countries only Kazakhstan has the border with Russia, and therefore the only land route to bring narcotics to Russia is laid through its territory. Over 90% of marihuana and over 85% of hashish and 80% of opium come to Russia via Kazakhstan, according to official data. The consumption of narcotics in the CA countries accounts for 11 tons per year, according to UN data. Of great significance is information on confiscation of narcotics: in the CA countries - 5 tons per year, while in Russia - only 3 tons, given consumption of 70 tons. In Afghanistan the confiscation makes only 1'3% of narcotics' traffic (for comparison: in Columbia this indication attains 37%). It is evident that the vast flows of narcotics may be maintained only via the zones of a weak state, the zones of military conflicts marked by different intensity. Thus, the maintenance of instability corresponds to the interests of international criminal structures.
There exist only two options for development of the present situation. The first option is as follows. The continuing destruction of the governing structures, criminalization of the authorities will result in creation in the region of the narcotics-terrorist states, which will resemble Afghanistan. Just this scenario will allow a great part of the population to be dependent on narcotics and to be satisfied with living in misery, while TNC jointly with international organizations (OPG) will be in charge of development of natural resources. It should be said that this scenario may be realized only in case, if Russia leaves this region.
The second option based on close integration of the CA countries with Russia, on full mutual understanding and conviction that they may survive only together, keeping the good geno-fund of their peoples, and will result in creation of the zone of sustainable development of sovereign states in Eurasia. Probably, the nearest Russian "partners"
(EU, the USA and China) are not interested very much in this option. However, Russia has the unique chance to preserve its presence in the region and to protect its national interests thanks to its cultural-historic influence. Its loss will mean a great change in the struggle for the "World Island".
The historic-cultural factor of integration
The CA region represents not only a complicated geopolitical and ethnic-confessional knot of contradictions, which in terms of influence of national and religious feelings on the political development of the world system may be compared with the same situation, which exists in the Balkans and the Caucasus. Of particular significance for Russia is the fact that the CA countries have relations with the numerous Russian speaking population within their territories; at the same time, this space may and should be kept as a zone of cultural-historic influence of Russia. With due account of the strategy of the countries of the West, mainly of the USA, directed to destabilization of "New World Balkans" and aimed particularly at the Central Asia, the particular attention should be paid not only to the relations among title nations (Kazakhs, Kirghiz, Tajiks, Turkmens and Uzbeks) and the Russian speaking population but also to the conflicts between Diaspora of the peoples of the adjacent countries.
The events in June of 2010 in the south of Kirghizstan became another justification of the fact that in case of efficient guidance of chaotic processes in the CA countries it would be possible to explode the whole Central Asian region. The ethnic-confessional and cultural-linguistic situation in the region's countries shows the chance for Russia in the quite natural way, first, to realize the principle "it is impossible to leave - to stay", ensuring in this way not only the all conceivable assistance to compatriots, but also to consolidate the position of the Russian world as a network structure of the XXI 56
century; second, to keep its political and economic presence in the CA as a geo-strategic center in Eurasia. Several facts may be cited to justify this statement.
All new states in the CA have the poly-ethnic composition of their population with different shares of national segments. According to the official data, the representatives of the title nations make up: in Kazakhstan - 56%, in Kirghizstan - 64%, in Tajikistan - 79.9%, in Uzbekistan - 80%, in Turkmenistan - 77%. The data of the CIA do not change the picture to a great extent: Kazakhstan - 53.5%, Kirghizstan -64.9%, Turkmenistan - 85%, Tajikistan - 79.9%, Uzbekistan - 80%.
According to the perceptions of the international legal self-consciousness, fixed mainly by activities of Freedom House, three out five CA states (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) should be considered as mono-national states, since the title nation exceeds two thirds or is more than 67% of the population. However, the specifics of this region is connected not so much with predominance of the title nations as with the historic heritage expressed in existence of compact ethnic-confessional settlements, which, like the title nations in a number of cases, are the aborigines or mixtures of cultural Diaspora.
For instance, the share of Russians settled mainly in the northern districts of Kazakhstan makes 30.0%; in Kirghizstan - 12.5%, in Turkmenistan - 4%, in Uzbekistan - 5.5%. According to different data, the share of Uzbeks accounts for 14-20% of the population in Kirghizstan, while their share in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan makes correspondingly 15.3% and 5%. It refers only to the greatest national segments, leaving aside Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Uighurs, Tatars, representatives of other peoples and nationalities. In this situation, the Russian language is significant not only as an element providing connection with the Russian world culture but also as a sole means of
inter-ethnic communication and, consequently, integration with the political-cultural field of Russia.
The language policy in Kazakhstan is realized in conformity with the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the law "On Languages in the Republic of Kazakhstan" (11.07.1997) as well as the state program of functioning and development of languages for 2001-2010, adopted by the decree of the president of the republic N 550 on 07.02.2001. The strategy of the state program determines achievement of three main tasks: extension and consolidation of social-communicative functions of the state Kazakh language; preservation of the general cultural functions of the Russian language and development of languages of the ethnic groups. According to these program documents, the state status of the Kazakh language is realized in practice, while the Russian language remains the language officially used by the state bodies, by the local organs of self-government, as well as the language used in the system of education, science, culture and other spheres of public life.
It should be admitted that in Kazakhstan the corresponding measures are taken purposefully, although slowly, for extension of the sphere of use of the Kazakh language, of codification and modernization of its content. The migration processes started after disintegration of the USSR and resulted in radical changes of the ethnic composition of the republic's population have a great impact on the general cultural climate. For instance, the number of Germans decreased almost three times (by 62.7%); the Kazakhs, who accounted for one third of the population 30 years ago, at present make the majority, while the number of Russians reduced by 1.6 million people only for the first years of independence. Nevertheless, the Russian language, as usual, keeps its significance. The Russian language is used by 95% of the population officially and in the communication sphere,
according to the information of western agencies. The Kazakh experts cite the lesser share - 84.75%, which, however, is an impressive data.
The number of Diasporas in different regions of the republic, like other factors, has an impact on the general cultural climate and the feature of diffusion of the Kazakh-Russian and the Russian-Kazakh bilingualism. The internal migration as a mass social phenomenon results always in preservation of the sustainable status of the Russian language. For the period of ten years, the rise of the population was raised more than twice, which explains the preservation of bilingualism as a very important means of internal communication. At the same time, just the Russian language allows to leave the political limits of the country and to integrate into the regional space by means of institutions, such as EvrAzES, ODKB, ShOS and some others.
In Kirghizstan the Russian language is nor only the native language for the Russian speaking population of the republic living traditionally in the north-east of the country and in big cities, primarily in Bishkek, but it is also the official language (article 5 of the Constitution of Kirghizstan, the law on the official (Russian) language of Kirghizstan, adopted in 2000). The vertical education in Russian is kept in the country, although the share of children getting education in Russian was reduced from 41% (1991-1992) to 24% (2005-2006). At the same time, at present, the native Russians make only about 20% of students in the Russian speaking classes in Kirghizstan, which makes it possible to say that the prestige of the Russian language is still kept in the country. The people, who know well the Russian language, make up 38% of the population, while 98% of residents mainly in rural districts in the country understand it to some or other extent. It is connected first of all with popularity of Russian mass media. In Kirghizstan, unlike Kazakhstan, most people speaking Russian are native Russians. They are mainly bilingual Kirghiz as well as Uzbeks, Ukrainians, Dungans,
Koreans, Kalmyks, Uighurs, Tajiks, Turks and others, using this language as a main means of communication.
Thus, Kirghizstan bears with Kazakhstan the palm in terms of level of knowledge of the Russian language among the CA countries. At the same time, for the last decade the linguistic problems were becoming more acute.
First, the first problem is connected with the intensive outflow of the Russian population, which results in gradual weakening of significance of the Russian language in Kirghizstan.
Second, the administrative sphere of use of the Russian language gradually reduces within the framework of policy of the so-called rooting of office work and administration in the republic. It is evident that destabilization of the situation in the country since April 2010 will lead to the next rise of the number of Russian speaking migrants.
In Uzbekistan the process of de-Russification is directly connected with the political course of the country and the perspectives of development of this republic. According to a number of analysts, having "wrecked" the Russian language, the authorities in Uzbekistan confronted the fact that the Russian language pulled with it to the bottom the Uzbek language as well: the meaning of the state language as a language of inter-national communication was greatly exaggerated by the reformers.
The experience of the reforms for the 1990s showed that there was no alternative to the Russian language as a means of inter-national communication and as a main way of integration into the world economy, politics and culture in the whole post-Soviet space; and it should be said that there will be no other way for achievement of this aim in the observed future. Of great significance is experience of Uzbekistan, where this process began within the political framework of the USSR. The Uzbek language was declared to be the state language
and the Russian - as a language of inter-national communication (by the law on the state language adopted in 1989). The Russian language was not mentioned either in the new version of the law in 1995 or in the amendment to it in 2004; at present, the Russian language as one of the foreign languages is included in the curricular in the general schools and higher education institutions.
The policy of de-Russification became one of the reasons of the outflow of the Russian speaking population from Uzbekistan, where the number of ethnic Russians was reduced almost by three times. The Russian speaking language is still kept in big cities, while in the rural districts they speak local dialects and hardly know the Uzbek language. The professors in higher education institutions have to organize the course of the Russian language for new students, coming from rural districts, to ensure teaching of the main subjects of the curricula.
The reform, dated in 1993, of converting the Uzbek language from the Cyril alphabet to the Latin alphabet resulted in the situation, when many children can not read Uzbek texts in the Cyril alphabet, while the grownups can not read the texts in the Latin alphabet. In practice a part of the population turned out to become illiterate. The passage to the Latin alphabet has resulted in deterioration of the education process in Uzbekistan. The question is that the Uzbek literature and scientific works since the years of the 1940s, leaving aside the textbooks, were published in the Cyril alphabet. Nobody intends to re-publish the accumulated for fifty years scientific and cultural experience. The general level of science, culture and even literacy deteriorates rapidly.
Under conditions of such "reforms" and with due account of the fact that representatives of over 100 nationalities live in Uzbekistan, one may assert: the Russian language remains the principal means of inter-national communication and access to the world culture. The three
groups of people use Russian in daily life, according to the expertise. The first group includes Russians, Ukrainians and Byelorussians, for whom Russian is the native language. For the end of the 1990s these peoples made up approximately 15% of this population. The second group (35%) consists of the Russian speaking representatives of other nationalities: Tatars, Koreans, Armenians, Kazakhs, Kirghiz, Turks, Jews, Georgians and others. As a rule, the representatives of this group know their native language much less than Russian, The Uzbeks, having received education in Russian and knowing the Uzbek speaking language, may be included in this group. These people received education before the reform of the Uzbek language. The third group consists of the so-called bilinguals, the people speaking both Russian and Uzbek; they comprise approximately 30-40% of this population.
Thus, despite a very complicated internal political situation in Uzbekistan, just Russian and not Uzbek and all the more English language was and is the language of inter-ethnic communication. Since it is impossible to get higher education and a prestige and highly paid work without knowledge of Russian, many Uzbek strive for sending their children for studies to the schools with education in Russian. As a result the number of such schools ceased to reduce.
And what is more, according to the data of the foundation "Eurasia Heritage", the broadcast in Russian rose in the republican TV. Most publications of the past time continue to circulate. The new cultural publications with ideological inclination are published in Uzbek with the state support. The information, advertising, commercial and entertainment publications, on the contrary, are originated "from below" on the commercial basis and are published in Russian. The Russian language occupies a stable place in commercial publications. The Population of Uzbekistan is in great need of the Russian language, while the state does not satisfy it. The Russian language may not only
become the most significant means of achievement of the consensus within the Uzbek community but also may efficiently promote advancement of Russia in the region.
The Russian language in Tajikistan is in a rather difficult situation, while a great part of the republics population ensures its living tanks to the work of its migrants in Russia. According to the Constitution of the Republic, adopted in 1999, the Russian language was recognized as a language of inter-national communication, and the office work in the state institutions could be carried out in two languages: the Tajik language, being the state language, and the Russian language. For the period of 2007-2009, the Russian-Tajik relations were marked by certain difficulties just due to the linguistic question. Despite the evident situation, when knowledge of Russian was a vital necessity for economic migrants of the republic, since most of them, being rural residents, leave for work to Russia and Kazakhstan, while the business sector of the republic functions primarily in Russian, the president of the republic E. Rakhmon took a special political step and deprived the Russian language of the official status.
In October 2009, the republican parliament adopted a new law on the state language (only the Communist fraction voted "against"), which was signed by E. Rakhmon shortly afterwards. Under the new law, it is possible to apply to the state bodies, using only the state language - the Tajik language. At the same time, the law has no provision on the status of the Russia language as a language of international communication, which was fixed and kept in the Constitution. However, the law contains the provision that the conditions for the free choice of the language for studies shall be created for other nations and nationalities, living in the country.
In October 2009, E. Rakhmon in the course of his state visit to Moscow declared that the Russian language was not subject to any infringement or to reduction of its sphere of use in response to concern expressed by President of the RF D. Medvedev about the situation relating to the Russian language. At the same time, he assured that the decisions and acts of the president and of the government were taken and publicized both in Tajik and Russian, that dozens of newspapers and magazines were published in Russian.
The above said corresponds to the practice. Although Russian is the native language for only a small group of the Tajiks (about 3%), it is widely used as a second language by all nationalities living in the republic. Thus, the communicative effect in this republic is being ensured just thanks to the Russian language.
The Russian speaking population confronts most difficulties in Turkmenistan. According to the data of the last national population census, held in the end of the 1980s, the number of Russians occupied the second place after Turkmen; but, according to the data of the population census of 1995, the share of Russians made 6.7% of the population in the country. The last official data on the composition of the population were made public by the ex-president S. Niyazov in 2001: Uzbek made 3% of the population, the share of Russians accounted for 2%; the title nation - the Turkmen made up 91% of the population. The CIA data was principally the same: Uzbeks - 5%, Russians - 4%, the Turkmen - 85%.
And what is more, in 2003 a new wave of re-settlers took place, caused by the unilateral withdrawal of Turkmenistan from the agreement with Russia on double citizenship. The government fixed the period of two months to take the decision and determine the citizenship by the people with two passports. The people, who kept their Russian passport, were deprived of their apartments: by law, foreign citizens
have no right to possess real estate in the country. It is difficult to examine the actual situation in Turkmenistan. The researchers lack transparent statistics or other data. Therefore it is possible to assert that at present there is no definite information on the number of Russians living in Turkmenistan.
However, the actual liquidation of the Russian language is caused not only by the small number of the Russian speaking population in Turkmenistan. The policy of the leadership of the country has plaid the decisive role in de-Russification of the country. For instance, in the middle of the 1990s the broadcasting of Russian radio channels was terminated. Radio channel "Mayak" stopped its broadcasting in 2004. Since the middle of the 1990s, the Russian schools started to terminate their functioning. Only one Russian A.S. Pushkin school exists in Ashghabad. Some Russian classes were remained in big cities, but their number continues to reduce. Up to 2007, only the graduates of the high schools, having passed the exam on the knowledge of the spiritual guidance for the Turkmen - the book "Rukhnama", written by Turkmenbashi, were admitted to the higher education institutions; the diplomas of foreign, including Russian, higher education institutions were not recognized. This circumstance was used as an additional pretext to dismiss Russians or representatives of other nationalities, who received education outside Turkmenistan, including former Soviet republics.
The sole Russian theater - A.S. Pushkin dramatic theater is subject to constant pressure on the part of the authorities. In 2004, the old building of the theater was demolished. The theater occupies the building of the former club of the closed textile factory. The sole Russian newspaper "Neitralny Turkmenstan" is published in Russian. The Russian newspapers and magazines are brought to the country almost illegally, and they are not sold in kiosks. All four TV channels
broadcast in Turkmen and include only short information programs in Russian. Most residents in big cities use dish-shaped aerials to watch Russian channels. It is impossible to buy Russian books. Many people have to use their old books in their personal library at home. Turkmenistan is a closed country. However, it is possible to find out a common ground even with the leadership of this republic.
The principal essence of the analysis of the national-linguistic component of the Central Asian region is as follows: the experience of the most complicated transitory years of creating the statehood of former Soviet republics proved the inability of the new states' existence without their involvement in the political, economic and cultural orbit of Russia. And what is more, their internal consensus is possible to be achieved on the basis of Russian culture and Russian language. The unique great destiny of "the grand and mighty" - should be used for stabilization the situation in this heterogeneous region and for promotion of influence of Russia in countries of the Central Asia.
The Central Asia and national interests of Russia
The CA countries as a region marked by rich natural resources and advantageous strategic position in the center of Eurasia, possessing a complicated knot of economic, social, ethnic-confessional and political problems, turn out to be in the center of struggle for the global leadership. And the outcome of its results depends not only on the leading world players - EU, the USA, China and Russia, but also on the politics, aims and interests of the countries and the peoples of the region.
The position of Russia, fixed in the founding foreign policy documents (Conception of foreign policy of the Russian Federation, Strategy of national security up to 2020), consists in development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with member-states of the CIS. Russia is ready to build friendly relations with each of the CA states on 66
the basis of equality, mutual benefit and respect and due account of reciprocal interests, while the relations of strategic partnership and alliance shall be developed with the states which display willingness to do it.
Russia urges not only towards intensified cooperation with the CA countries in economic and humanitarian spheres but also towards perfection of systemic ensuring mutual security, including common counteraction against challenges and threats, primarily international terrorism, extremism, narcotics' traffic, transnational criminality, illegal migration. The difficult situation in the region demands primarily neutralization of the terrorist threat and the threat on the part of narcotic traffic from the territory of Afghanistan, as well as prevention of destabilization of the situation in the Central Asia.
For this sake Russia calls upon its Central Asian neighbors to realize further the CIS potential as a regional organization, as a forum of multilateral political dialogue and mechanism of many-sided cooperation with the priorities in the spheres of economy, humanitarian reciprocal action, the struggle against traditional and new challenges and threats, to exert further efforts for creation of the united economic space, to take measures for further consolidation of EvrAzES as a kernel of economic integration, mechanism of promotion of implementation of big water-energy, infrastructure, industrial and other common projects, to consolidate the Organization of Mutual Collective Security (ODKB) as a key instrument for maintaining stability and ensuring security in the CIS space.
The above said means that Russia may and is ready to carry out the pragmatic, balanced foreign policy strategy, physically (in terms of economy and civilization) being present in the region. The representatives of the power structures should understand it and should pursue foreign policy of Russia, proceeding from national interests,
security and well-being of the citizens. Given the great ideological and emotional burden of the contemporary stage of development of the CA states for the wide public circles, particularly for the ruling politicians, it should be quite evident that Russia will not be able to achieve its national interests by avoiding problematic zones and by leaving the region. It is necessary to work thoroughly and jointly with the representatives of political and economic republican elites, to advance its cultural values into wide strata of the population, to consolidate its political and economic presence. Russia has objective grounds for the success of this work in the region and, consequently, for preservation of its influence in Eurasia.
"Svobodnaya mysl", M., 2010, N10, p. 30-46.
Tiberio Graciani,
editor-in-chief of the magazine "Eurasia.
Review of Geopolitical Research"
STRATEGY OF THE USA AND PROBLEM
OF NARCOTICS IN AFGHANISTAN
The ideologically unbiased and honest appraisal of the problem relating to narcotics' production and corresponding international problems is a must for determination (at least schematic) of the geopolitical structure and a more profound comprehension of some notions usually taken as well known and generally accepted.
Afghanistan jointly with the Caucasus and the republics of the Central Asia represents a vast territory marked by activities of some main global subjects (the USA, Russia, China and India), which differ in their geographic position in two unlike regions - America and Eurasia - primarily by their might and geo-strategy. The destabilization of the situation in this region serves the purpose of the USA, i.e. the
