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them, i.e. the factors, which stimulate and intensify the modernization process in contemporary Kazakhstan. The economic block occupies a special place in the roster of these factors. It is the principal factor in terms of modernization (90%). It has two components: the rich national resources of the country and the foreign investments in its economy. They are the main factors in the whole complex of them, which ensure the modernization process. But lesser input into it is made by other factors, such as "intensification of information flows, communications and international reciprocal action" (33.5%), "development of political institutions" (32.7%), "human factor" (23.1%). Finally, the following determinants had a small impact on modernization: "growth of technological level of production" (15%), "development of legal institutions" (9.6%).
"Phenomen modernizatsii i ego otrajenie v soznanii subelitarnykh grup: Soziokulturniy aspect", Novosibirsk, 2009, p. 117-123.
Andrey Bolshakov,
candidate of sociological sciences
(the Kazan State University)
THE MUTUAL RELATIONS OF KIRGHIZSTAN
WITH THE REPUBLICS OF THE POST-SOVIET
CENTRAL ASIA
For the last several years, most post-Soviet countries carried out the evident multi-vector foreign policy, and the policy of the complete pro-Russian orientation is not inherent in any country of the post-Soviet space. In this respect, Kirghizstan belongs to this group of countries without exception. Besides, the economic situation in Kirghizstan is so grave that the geopolitical games of the elite are almost the sole way of
efficient contribution to the budget. The republic, with due account of economy's state, is unable to ignore the financial assistance of great powers and international organizations. Kirghizstan to a large extent depends on more powerful neighbors, striving to play the role of "older brothers" (except Tajikistan) in relation to a small country. The northern part of Kirghizstan is closely connected with Kazakhstan and China. In the south the main partners are the neighboring regions of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The Fergana valley is divided by the borders with these countries like Germany in the middle age. Kirghizstan has to make evolution among the interests of these countries, periodically proclaiming its strategic partnership either with Russia, or with the USA and the countries of the European Union. The existence of air base Manas" is a revealing example in this respect. The air base itself is the complex of various geopolitical problems. First, it is characterized by opposition of interests among different authorities of the USA, Russia and China. Second, it is the problem of Afghanistan which should be solved. Third, the countries, located to the south of Kirghizstan, take into account the existence in Kirghizstan of the foreign air base, which may be considered as a potential threat. The whole complex of these problems is connected with the actual national interests of Kirghizstan.
The main donors of Kirghizsta are Russia, the USA, China, Germany, Great Britain, Turkey, Switzerland and Japan, as well as the Asian Bank of Development, the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program. No country of the contemporary world is unable alone fully to ensure all needed for Kirghizstan financial assistance, and therefore the process of manoeuvring of its establishment in the labyrinths of present geopolitics will continue.
The special role in development of contemporary Kirghizstan is played by the reciprocal relations with the Central Asian countries. The integration in the post-Soviet Central Asia does not exist, but there
exists cooperation and mutual relations of a number of international players. The structure of economy and the nomenclature of goods of most countries of the region are identical, and therefore integration is objectively replaced by competition. The share of Kazakhstan in the regional economy accounts for 65%. Taking into account its economic capacity, Kazakhstan claims for the leading role in the Central Asia. Energy is not a significant factor of integration in the Central Asia.
Kirghizstan and Kazakhstan
The two countries are connected with each other by special cultural and historic ties. The spiritual and language closeness of the peoples of Kirghizstan and Kazakhstan is a common knowledge. Both countries actively cooperate within the framework of international organizations, such as CIS, EvrAzES, ODKB, ShOS. Leaving aside the problems, created by regulation of the Syr-Daria flow, the Kazakh-Kirghiz relations in times of A. Akayev were developing almost without conflicts. The elite of Kirghizstan comprises representatives of the Kazakh people. For the 1990s, the governments of two countries concluded the agreement on return of all lands, rented in Soviet times. By 2001, the demarcation of state borders between them in the main was finished. In January 2000, Kirghizstan and Kazakhstan signed the treaty on joint use of waters of the rivers Chu and Talas. Despite the fact that in 2005 A. Akayev, thrown down from his post, flew first to Kazakhstan, the relations between the two countries did not experience any crisis. In December 2005, the Prime Ministers of the countries confirmed the property right of Kazakhstan for several objects near Lake Issyk-Kul, possessed by the Kazakh SSR before 1991. They agreed on the simplified system of labor migration from Kirghizstan to Kazakhstan; and a joint venture - enterprise "Kazkyrgas", created at the meeting, liquidated the threat of cessation of shipment of Uzbek gas to
Kirghizstan in winter time. For the period of 2007-2008, the investments of Kazakhstan in economy of Kirghizstan increased to a large extent. It was agreed that the Kazakh companies would take part in the tender for implementation of the big investment project - construction of hydroelectric station "Kambarata-1". The cooperation between the two countries is developing in the humanitarian sphere, the Forum of intellectuals of these countries was convened, and the quota of Kirghiz students in the higher education institutions in Kazakhstan was raised up to 100 people.
However, the Kirghiz-Kazakh relations are far from being the ideal relations. The Kazakh authorities establish more rigid rules for Kirghiz citizens, coming to the neighboring territory. For instance, Kirghiz passengers, going by the way from the Talas region, are subject to humiliated checking on the border posts of Kazakhstan.
Kirghizstan and Tajikistan
Kirghizstan and Tajikistan are partners in some post-Soviet international regional organizations (CIS, EvrAzES, ODKB), actively cooperate within the framework of ShOS; the official negotiations and meetings of representatives of these countries are conducted in the friendly atmosphere and contribute to consolidation of diplomatic, trade-economic, cultural and humanitarian contacts between two countries. Both countries are the weakest partners in the region of the Central Asia in terms of some economic, military-technical and geopolitical parameters. They compete with each other in the economic sphere, the main migration flows from these countries are directed, first of all, to Russia, although numerous Kirghiz and Tajik Diaspora exists also in other CIS countries. The situation in Tajikistan is directly connected with the permanent civil war in Afghanistan. The political elites of Kirghizstan and Tajikistan strive for leaving the halo of "the
failed states", for justifying the economic and military superiority to each other, for occupying sustainable position. The geographic parameters of two countries, the existence of limitation and unevenness in distribution of natural resources provoke expansion of some groups of people and further cultivation of neighboring territories. For instance, the territory of Tajikistan accounts for 143.1 thousand square km (with 93% of mountainous part of it), while the population makes 7 million people (with its density of 45 persons per 1 square km). In its turn, the territory of Kirghizstan consists of 198.5 thousand square km with the population of 5 million people (characterized by the density of 25 persons per 1 square km).
The roster of mutual claims of Kirghizstan and Tajikistan concerns primarily the lands of the questioned border territories, particularly in the Batken region of Kirghizstan, where there are about 70 questioned plots of land. Kirghizstan contains Tajik enclave Voruh, which is a part of Isfarinsky administrative district of the Sogdiyskaya region of Tajikistan. This territory (130 thousand square km) is populated by more than 20 thousand people (Tajik - 95% and Kirghiz -5%). Every year the heated controversy between the residents of the border districts of two countries ends with the attempts of their governments to regulate somehow the situation. However, these attempts failed, since Kirghizstan and Tajikistan are unable to come to the consent on determination of the status of the questioned bordering lands. The prolonged conflict between Kirghizstan and Tajikistan is based on the old dispute concerning the land-water resources. Since the 1980s, the grave clashes between Tajik and Kirghiz took place, for instance in villages Voruhe-Tangi (1982) and Match-Aktatyr (1998). The fruitless attempts to regulate the contradictions, including demands to give Tajikistan the questioned territory, resulted in the new escalation of tension (1989-1991), accompanied by the threats to grow into a
direct conflict between two parties. In 1998, new conflicts related to distribution of water resources, occurred on the territory of the Batken district.
For the last three years, the analogous border clashes took place mainly during the spring field-work. The well publicized case took place on 26 March 2008 in the Batken region, when over 150 Tajik citizens, headed by the chief administrator of the Isfarinsky district, invaded the territory of Kirghizstan and, using the excavator, tried to demolish the dam of the channel, which prevented irrigation water coming to the Tajik territory. Such "small conflicts", in case of unfavorable development of further events, may result in armed forceful actions. Under conditions of more often disturbances on the bordering territories and in case of conflicts in the process of determination of belonging of different plots, in case of disputes about water etc., any one-sided actions on the part of Tajikistan or Kirghizstan without due account of the other party's opinion, may result in inter-ethnic conflicts. This course of events seems to be not in the interests of the ruling elites of the two states, which will try to solve the disputable problems within the framework of regional organizations or with the mediation of Russia.
Kirghizstan and Turkmenistan
Kirghizstan and Turkmenistan represent a kind of poles in the sphere of public political openness. Kirghistan is the most overt country in the Central Asian region, while Turkmenistan is the most closed state in the Central Asia and in the whole post-Soviet space. The military and geopolitical contradictions actually do not exist in the relations of two countries, but different models of economic and political development promoted the watchful attitude to each other's actions for the longest time of the post-Soviet period. The political changes, which occurred in
Turkmenistan for the last several years, let the leaders of Kirghizstan arrange more constructive relations with this state in the economic sphere. For the latest period, the cultural-humanitarian, trade-economic cooperation between two countries started its development more efficiently; the countries succeeded to organize reciprocal action in the tourist sphere. China is interested in import of natural gas from Turkmenistan via the territory of Kirghizstan, avoiding Kazakhstan, and is ready to make investments in implementation of this project. Kirghizstan, like Kazakhstan, has the common border with China, depends completely on the unique source of gas delivery, i.e. Uzbekistan, and it intends to diversify its import. Kirghizstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan signed the general convention on protection of the environment. It was a result of the prolonged work of the Inter-state Commission for Sustainable Development of the International Foundation for Rescue of Aral. The Convention "supposes the united demands in the sphere of the nature protection activities for all countries of the Central Asia". The document pays special attention to the scientific-technical cooperation for solving ecological problems and for elaboration of common actions to keep biological diversity. The scheme for cooperation in time of ecological emergency was elaborated and adopted.
Kirghizstan and Uzbekistan
The chiefly friendly and mutually beneficial relations are maintained between two countries at the diplomatic level. It is common knowledge that in 1998 Kirghizstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan signed the agreement "On Eternal Friendship and Cooperation", which to some extent promoted solving common Central Asian problems: the regional security, the counter action against terrorism and extremism, the social development. The presidents and the Prime Ministers regularly arranged
their meetings, but the real economic rapprochement did not occur. For the period of time after Uzbekistan suspended in 2008 its participation in the Eurasian economic community, the other two countries remained members of the influential regional organizations - ShOS, CIS, ODKB. The cooperation of Kirghizstan and Uzbekistan received a new impulse when K. Bakyev came to power. The two countries agreed to arrange the close reciprocal action in the activities of the border guards, the customs services and the secret services for the sake of the intensified control over the state border. The main stress in the inter-state negotiations was made on the issues of further extension of trade-economic cooperation, particularly the efficient functioning of transport routes and energy resources. The mutually beneficial trade-economic cooperation between Kirghizstan and Uzbekistan is being adequately arranged by the signed agreements on free trade, stimulation and protection of investments, on avoiding twofold taxation and by other significant bilateral documents.
At the same time, the events in the Soviet times in Osh (the Kirghiz-Uzbek ethnic conflict), the existence of the great Uzbek Diaspora in the south of Kirghizstan and the relatively small number of Kirghiz, living in Uzbekistan, to a large extent complicate the bilateral relations. The realization of the rights of ethnic minorities (Uzbek and Kirghiz) is the basis of not only of bilateral relations but also of stability
in the Central Asian region as a whole.
* * *
The Republic of Kirghizstan maintains diplomatic, militarytechnical, trade-economic, cultural and humanitarian relations with the greater number of the above mentioned countries. But exactly the great powers and the states of the Central Asian region determine the main trends of the internal and external development of the Republic of Kirghizsta. For the last year, Kirghizstan, finding the way round Russia
and the USA, achieved a lot: succeeded to keep in the country the military base of anti-terrorist forces, raised by more than three times the income of its location, secured writing off the external debt to Russia, received the Russian grant, as well as the preferential credit. At the same time, the leadership of Kirghizstan preserved the chance for further bargaining relating to the air base. The agreement on presence of NATO servicemen shall be concluded for one year with probable prolongation or without prolongation, if one interested party, for instance Russia, wishes to make to the Kirghiz authorities a more favorable proposal. Kirghizstan within the framework of present realities in the Central Asia objectively needs the close rapprochement with Russia. The neighboring countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) constantly make greater border claims to the republic. Only maintaining unity with the Russian Federation, it is possible to withstand the countries, which are more powerful in economic and military terms and which deliver rigid territorial ultimatums.
"Tsivilizatsiya i gosudarstvo na Vostoke", M., 2009, p. 23-44.
Elena Ionova,
candidate of historic sciences (IMEMO RAN) THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKMENISTAN
The dominant of cooperation of Russia with Turkmenistan remains the export of Turkmen gas to the RF. For the 2009, the dialogue at the highest level was going on: in September and December two working visits were made by D. Medvedev to Ashghabad , while G. Berdymukhamedov visited Moscow in March and November. Besides, the negotiations at the highest level were held during meetings
