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national enterprises. As far as the assertion concerning "the special conditions" of China is concerned, it is a misunderstanding caused by inadequate knowledge of the situation in this country. However, it is irrelevant to discuss this subject. The question is - Kazakhstan and the Customs Union
The Customs Union to a large extent actually is not a simple amalgamation. "The separate enterprises may confront difficulties, for instance, light industry, confectionery and liqueur-vodka, food factories etc. They will have to compete with Russian producers on the territory of Kazakhstan. It concerns particularly the border regions of the republic", thinks economist K. Berentayev. At the same time, it seems that some authors fail to bear in mind that the purport of the created Customs Union consists not only in cooperation in the sphere of customs but also in creation of the united economic space. As far as disputed issues are concerned, their emergence is quite natural in case of such large-scale reconstruction of the economic reciprocal action of several countries. They may be settled in the course of determined, planned and mutually beneficial work of all members of the Union.
"Vneshnie svyazi stran Prikaspiya v usloviyah globalnogo protsessai i interesy Rossii", M., 2010.
A. Bolshakov,
political scientist
THE FOREIGN POLICY OF KIRGHIZSTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF CONFLICTS' CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
For the last several years most post-Soviet countries carried out the evident multy-vector foreign policy. The clear pro-western vector is characteristic, however, only for Georgia and the Baltic states, which
are member-states of the European Union. No state in the post-Soviet space adheres to a full pro-Russian orientation. In this respect, Kirghizstan is not the exclusion. At the same time, the economic situation in the Kirghiz Republic is disastrous to such extent that the geopolitical games of the elite are nearly the sole method of efficient replenishment of its budget. Kirghizstan is simply unable to refuse to get the financial assistance for its economy of the leading powers and international organizations.
Kirghizstan depends to a large extent on the stronger neighbors, which urge towards the role of "older brothers" in relation to the small country (excluding Tajikistan). The north of Kirghizstan is closely connected with Kazakhstan and China. In the south the neighboring regions of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan play the role of main partners. The Fergana Valley, like Germany in the medieval epoch, is divided by the borders of these countries. Kirghizstan has to maneuver and find its way out among the interests of these countries, periodically proclaiming its strategic partnership with Russia, the USA and the countries of the European Union. Of great significance in this connection is existence of airbase "Manas" on the territory of Kirghizstan. The airbase itself is a complex of various geopolitical problems:
First, the clash of interests possessed by different departments of the USA, Russia and China;
Second, the Afghanistan's problem, which should be solved.
Third, the interests of the countries, located to the south from Kirghizstan, which comprehend that the foreign airbase in Kirghizstan may be regarded as a potential threat. This complex of problems is connected with the actual national interests of Kirghizstan, although it is discussed first of all as an issue of the rent payment.
The donors of Kirghizstan are as follows: the Russian Federation, the USA, China, Germany, Great Britain, Turkey, Switzerland and Japan, as well as the Asian Bank of Development, the Islamic Bank of Development, the World Bank and United Nations Development Program. Not a single country of the contemporary world is able alone to provide for Kirghizstan all needed financial means, and therefore the establishment of Kirghizstan will continue to try to find its way out in the labyrinth of contemporary geopolitics.
The conflicts in the post-Soviet space to a large extent are determined by geopolitical confrontation of the USA, the EU, Russia and China. The USA claims for the influence in the whole post-Soviet space, the EU included in its structure the Baltic states and displays its evident interest in the processes going on in European countries of the CIS. Lately, the EU has its impact on the region of the South Caucasus and arranges cooperation with the countries of the Central Asia. The latter region for a long time has been in the sphere of influence of China, which exerts great efforts to ensure its dominance in former eastern Soviet republics. Iran and Turkey have some influence on certain regions of the post-Soviet space. Russia regards the post-Soviet space as a zone of its most important geopolitical interests, which is quite natural. However, the lack of skill to come to an agreement with other countries, the permanent display of "imperial syndrome" questions the Russian strategy of activities in the whole diversified post-Soviet space. The main reason of a rather great increase of different inter-state conflicts in the post-Soviet space became the contradiction between the extension of interests of national political elites, which identify themselves with the state as a whole, on the one hand, and the limited existence of resources for realization of these interests, on the other hand.
At present, the political development in the post-Soviet space is marked by both integration and disintegration processes, and both of them are determined by internal factors and the contradictory external influence. The arrangement of external forces participating in elaboration of future configuration of economic space of the CIS more or less has been determined. Russia no more is the only partner for common development of the CIS countries. China and the European Union are ready to assume this role.
The conception of foreign policy stresses the main following priorities of contemporary Kirghizstan: consolidation of national security by foreign policy methods; formation of favorable external conditions for realizing development of national priorities; strengthening of the positive international image of Kazakhstan; creation of the efficient system of foreign policy activities headed by the ministry of foreign affairs of Kirghizstan in partnership with interested state structures and institutions of civil society. Given these priorities, it is worth considering mutual relations of Kirghizstan with the leading states and regional organizations of the contemporary world.
The aims of the USA in the Central Asia are quite evident. Of great significance for the USA is the formation of the region's pro-American orientation, the deterrence of influence of China and Russia, the creation of conditions for a direct opposition between Russian and Chinese interests, the use of the regional capacity for constructing a long-term dialogue with the Islamic world. For the eighteen years of the post-Soviet development, Kirghizstan in American foreign policy discourse passed the way from "the island of democracy" - a shop window of the probable Central Asian liberal development, created with assistance of the USA and the West, to an ally in the anti-terrorist coalition, exactly, in the military American operation in Afghanistan.
At the same time, one should take into account that the territory and services for creation of the military base were provided for Americans by the former government of Kirghizstan actually free of charge. For the years of independence, the interests and consequently policy of Kirghizstan relating to the USA were limited with commerce. Kirghizstan did not formulate any political, economic or other interests. The intentions to economic cooperation, the attraction of American investments covered the spontaneous aspiration for using the USA as a new sponsor and creditor. The USA rather actively supported the democratic choice of Kirghizstan, while president A. Akayev supported it personally. The USA consequently supported entry of Kirghizstan in the World Trade Organization.
Within the framework of cooperation of Kazakhstan with the IMF, the World Bank and other international economic and financial organizations, the USA rendered evident assistance to the country. The USA also gave the free of charge support and grants to Kirghizstan for the total sum of $ 1 billion. But just the USA let the former president A.Akayev to transform democracy in commerce and into an instrument of profiteering. The system of political pluralism as a format and sense of relations between Kirghizstan and the USA has past, although Kirghizstan objectively is the sole central Asian country, which remains within the limits of democratic transit.
At present, the economic presence of Americans in Kirghizstan is rather small and will hardly increase. The American university of the Central Asia established with support of the USA government and the Institute of Open Society gradually was transformed into a habitual education institution. It does not enjoy any support of the governments of both countries and is not subject to negotiations between them.
The mutual relations of Kirghizstan with the USA to a large extent depend on the following factors: the Russian-American relations,
the activities of the regional international organizations with Kirghizstan's membership, the cooperation with international economic and financial organizations, primarily the IMF ad the World Bank kept mainly under American control. The present government of Kirghizstan may not refuse to cooperate with these organizations, and therefore the sole probable way out of this situation is the joint work with rigid protection of the interests of society in Kirghizstan. It should be recalled that the problem of external debt, mainly to the IMF and the WB, remains unsolved: the writing-off or restructuring of the debt depends on the position of the donor-countries. Evidently, the absolute amount of the debt is not very great. But under conditions of the financial-economic crisis the pressure of the debt grows primarily in psychological sense. To solve the problem of the debt Kirghizstan needs to maintain dialogue from the position of its national interests with the USA, the IMF and the WB, but also it should ensure development of its own economy.
The development of relations with the European Union (25 member-countries), particularly with Germany as a leading partner and donor, remains an advantageous direction of foreign policy of Kirghizstan. At present, the European Union is its important trade and investment partner. After disintegration of the USSR, the European countries within the framework of "TASIS" program started to carry out various programs and implement different projects for development of the CIS countries, including Kirghizstan.
For the period of partnership with the EU, Kirghizstan received about 200 million euros for implementation of various projects. The annual technical assistance program in the amount of 10 million euros is carried out to settle the issues of Kirghiz-European partnership, trade-economic relations, including access of Kirghiz goods to the European market, the issues of investments, energy and transportation, protection
of environment. It is possible to mention as the perspective directions of cooperation as follows: the struggle against terrorism and narcotics traffic, the illegal migration and trade of human beings. The EU carries out the programs aimed at prevention of production and sale of narcotics in the Central Asia (CADAP) and border governance in the Central Asia (BOMCA).
Taking into account the water problem in the Central Asia, the ministry of foreign affairs of Kirghizstan carries out the work for experience exchange and for introduction of the advanced technologies, possessed by EU countries, in the sphere of rational and efficient use of water resources. For this sake, the EU carries out the program of management of water resources and agricultural production in the Central Asia "WARMAP".
With due account of sustainable development of the sphere of higher and professional education in Kirghizstan and of existence of the adequately developed higher education system, the EU participates in implementation of education projects and gives support to the qualitative education system. Thus, further cooperation of Kirghizstan with the European Union corresponds to the national interests of the republic and will make it possible to elevate the authority of Kirghizstan in the world community.
The cooperation between Kirghizstan and China, started from zero in the post-Soviet period, achieved by this time a rather high level. It is characterized by the sustainable dynamic at various levels of the state power. For the last years, the transport infrastructure connecting China and Kirghizstan developed, while trade turnover grows in a sustained way. China and Kirghizstan take reciprocal action in international organizations, including mainly cooperation in ShOS. The main problems aggravating bilateral mutual action and hindering development of bilateral relations were removed for the period to 2005,
following settlement of the problematic issue on the border and signing of the main political document - the treaty on friendship, neighborhood and cooperation.
The leadership of the CPR was greatly concerned about the events during "tulip revolution" occurred in Kirghizstan in 2005, resulting in the sudden change of the highest leadership of the country and coming to power of the opposition forces. China occupied the position of wait and see, and expected the diplomatic initiative on the part of the new powers in Kirghizstan. Despite the position of some politicians in Kirghizstan, who continued to demand the review of relations with China, primarily the agreements on the state border with China, the president of Kirghizstan K. Bakiyev restored the relations with China to the previous format in the course of his visit to China in 2006. The contacts between ministries and official structures were kept maintaining, the trade turnover reached the record level of $ 3.5 billion in 2007.
The CPR does not regard Kirghizstan as a main economic partner in the region. The CPR does not pay a real interest to the economic project of priority for Kirghizstan - construction of the railway China-Kirghizstan-Uzbekistan and export of electric energy from Kirghizstan to China. Within the framework of the long-term (for ten years) program of economic cooperation, China and Kirghizstan are engaged now in realization of a package of economic projects.
The mutual relations with the Central Asian countries play the particular role in development of contemporary Kirghizstan. The postSoviet Central Asia lacks integration, while cooperation and reciprocal action of some international actors do exist. The economic structure and the nomenclature of goods of most countries of the region are identical, and therefore integration objectively was replaced by competition. The economy of Kazakhstan makes 65% of the whole regional economy.
Thanks to its economic capacity Kazakhstan claims for the role of the leader in the Central Asia. Energy is not the factor of integration in the Central Asia.
The relations with Kazakhstan represent the priority for Kirghizstan. Both countries are tied by special cultural and historic relations. The spiritual and language nearness of the Kirghiz and the Kazakh peoples is a generally recognized factor. Both countries actively cooperate in international organizations, such as CIS, EvrAzES, ODKB, ShOS. Not mentioning the problems caused by regulation of the water flow of Syr-Daria, the relations with Kazakhstan were developing in the epoch of A. Akayev almost without conflicts. Kazakhs were represented in the elite of Kirghizstan. For the 1990s, both countries came to the agreement on the return of all rented lands. By 2001, the demarcation of borders was mainly terminated. In January 2000, Kirghizstan and Kazakhstan signed the agreement on use of water of the rivers Chu and Talas. Despite the fact that A. Akayev, who lost his post as a result of the political revolution in 2005, fled first to Kazakhstan, the relations between the two countries did not attain the level of crisis. In December 2005, the right of Kazakhstan's property was recognized for several objects near Issyk Kul Lake, belonged to the Kazakh SSR before 1991. Both countries succeeded to come to the agreement on labor migration from Kirghizstan to Kazakhstan; the joint venture - enterprise "Kazkyrgaz" was established, liquidating a threat of interruption of Uzbek gas shipment to Kirghizstan in winter time. However, the Kazakh-Kirghiz relations are far from being an ideal picture. The Kazakh authorities take rigid measures relating to Kirghiz citizens coming to Kazakhstan. The route from the Talass region is laid through the territory of Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, and Kirghiz passengers are subject to humiliating checks by the border guards of the posts in Kazakhstan.
The relations of Kirghizstan with Tajikistan are marked by partnership in international organizations (CIS, EvrAzES, ODKB, ShOS). The negotiations and meetings of representatives of both countries promote consolidation of diplomatic, trade-economic, cultural and humanitarian relations. In terms of economic, military-technical and geopolitical parameters, both countries are the weakest in the CA. They compete with each other in the economic sphere, their migration flows are directed mainly to Russia, although numerous Diaspora of Kirghiz and Tajik exist also in other CIS countries. The political elites of both countries try to leave the halo of "failed states", to prove to each other their economic and military superiority, to occupy rather sustainable position.
The geographic parameters of two countries, limitations and unevenness of location of natural resources provoke expansion of groups of the population to the neighboring territories. The territory of Tajikistan accounts for 143.1 thousand square km (including 93% of mountains), its population makes 7 million (the population density surpasses 45 people per one square km). The territory of Kirghizstan is 198.5 thousand square km with the population of about 5 million (the density - 25 people per one square km).
The list of mutual Kirghiz-Tajik claims is concentrated in the Batken region of Kirghizstan on the border with Tajikistan (70 disputed land plots). On the territory of Isfarin district of Sogdi region of Kirghizstan (in Tajik enclave Voruh - 130 thousand square km) live more than 20 thousand people (95% - Tajiks). Up to the present time, the governments of the two countries failed to come to an agreement on determination of the disputed border land territory. Kirghizstan and Tajikistan fail to regulate the long-term dispute caused by contradictions in the sphere of use of the irrigated land plots. Such "small conflicts" may lead to use of military forces. At the same time, it
should be mentioned that the ruling elites might do their best to avoid such conflicts either within the framework of regional organizations or by means of mediation efforts exerted by Russia.
Kirghizstan and Turkmenistan represent specific poles in terms of public-political openness: the first one - the most open and free CA country, the latter - the closest state of the region in the whole postSoviet space. The military and geopolitical contradictions do not exist in their mutual relations, but different models of economic and political development promoted the guarded attitude to each other for the longest time of the post-Soviet period. The political changes taken place in Turkmenistan for the last years made it possible for Kirghizstan to arrange more constructive relations with this state in the economic sphere. For the recent time, the cultural-humanitarian and trade-economic cooperation of two countries started to gain in its intensity, and both countries succeeded to maintain reciprocal action in the sphere of tourism.
China is interested in import of natural gas from Turkmenistan via the territory of Kirghizstan, avoiding the territory of Kazakhstan. Kirghizstan, like Kazakhstan, has the frontier with China and depends completely on gas shipped from Uzbekistan; therefore it intends to diversify its import. Kirghizstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan signed the framework convention on protection of environment. It was the outcome of the work, carried out by the Inter-state Commission for Sustainable Development of the International Fund for Saving Aral. The convention pre-supposes the united demands in the sphere of protection of environment for all countries of the Central Asia". A particular attention of the document is devoted to the scientific-technical cooperation for solving ecological problems and to preservation of biological diversity. A scheme of cooperation in ecological emergency was elaborated and adopted.
Uzbekistan traditionally plays a significant role for Kirghizstan in settling a number of political and economic issues. The diplomatic relations between two states are characterized by neighborhood and mutual benefit. In 1998, Kirghizstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan signed the agreement on the lasting friendship and cooperation, which to a certain extent promoted solving common Central-Asian problems: regional security, counteraction to terrorism and extremism, social development. The presidents and the prime ministers arranged regular meetings, but the real economic rapprochement did not take place. For the period after decision of Uzbekistan to suspend its participation in the Eurasian Economic Community both countries kept their membership in influential regional organizations, such as ShOS, CIS and ODKB.
The mutually beneficial trade-economic cooperation between Kirghizstan and Uzbekistan is governed by the signed agreements on free trade, promotion and protection of investments, avoidance of double taxing and by other significant bilateral documents. Despite extension of trade-economic cooperation for the last years, both parties are not satisfied by the general indexes of its development. There exist many chances for creation of joint ventures to develop natural resources, to produce construction materials, to use the reserves in the sphere of transport and hydroelectric plants. It is necessary to strengthen the mutual connections between representatives of business, science, culture and arts, in the sphere of sports, health protection, tourism and mass information. The bilateral relations are complicated by the consequences of the Kirghiz-Uzbek ethnic conflict in 1990, caused by existence of the great Uzbek community in the south of Kirghizstan and the small group of Kirghiz living in the Fergana valley of Uzbekistan. The realization of the rights of ethnic minorities is the
basis not only of bilateral agreements but also of stability in the Central-Asian region as a whole.
For the last time, the cooperation of Kirghizstan with the Russian Federation is on the rise in all spheres of public life. At the same time, Kirghizstan, finding a way round between Russia and the USA, succeeded to preserve the military base of anti-terrorist forces in the country, raised more than trice the profit received thanks to its presence, succeeded to get the external Russian debt's writing off, got the Russian grant and a part of the credit under privileged conditions. At the same time, the leadership of Kirghizstan kept a chance for a probable participation in tenders relating to airbase. The treaty on the presence of NATO servicemen was concluded for one year with the point on its extension and non-extension, if some other interested country, for instance Russia, makes a more profitable proposal to the Kirghiz authorities.
Within the framework of contemporary realities of the Central Asia, Kirghizstan needs objectively a close rapprochement with Russia. The neighbors of Kirghizstan - Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan -constantly make more rigid claims to Kirghizstan. Only the union with the Russian Federation makes it possible to withstand the rigid territorial ultimatums presented by the countries, which are more
powerful in economic and military terms.
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The multi-vector foreign policy is a sign of a certain maturity of the national state; at the same time, from the beginning it is a factor with probable conflicts, since it is oriented to various forces in contemporary world politics. But it is the reality, with which it should to be reconciled. One should forget about a chance to rely on the allies, which will be mono-centric in the foreign policy choice. Kirghizstan objectively is one of the states, closest to contemporary Russia.
Possessing no big energy resources and without developed economy, it will orient itself to the Russian Federation to settle some military-political and economic issues. Russia with advantage for itself may use geographic location of Kirghizstan to defend its interests in the Central Asia.
Russia will be unable to overcome disintegration of the postSoviet space only with military and political mechanisms, it should submit to its CIS partners the feasible economic projects, which initially may involve only some states being the closest allies. In the post-Soviet space Russia should rather propose to elaborate and jointly discuss by the national states a new doctrine of their relations, which rather in detail reflects their perceptions of the configuration of the economic community, which they would like to create. Its central element might become the zone of free trade, which would overcome the existing trends to disintegration of the post-Soviet space.
"Politeks: politicheskaya ekspertiza ", S-pt, 2010, t. 6, n. 2, p. 100-114.
Khakim Rakhnamo,
cand. of sciences (policy) (the Tajik national university) THE PLACE AND THE ROLE OF ISLAM IN THE HISTORY OF CENTRAL ASIA (VIEW FROM TAJIKISTAN)
The assessment of Islam place and role in the history and in the modern life of the people in Central Asia belongs to disputable questions arising recently. When taking up subjects matters associated with the distribution history of Islam in central Asian countries we inexorably face with a problem to describe this historical process and its consequences.
