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in technical renovation of Turkmen economy is devoted to the Russian state corporation "Rostehnologii".
"Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii", M., 2010, N1, p. 84-89.
E. Kuzmina,
candidate of the political sciences THE PECULIARITIES OF THE INTERNAL POLITICAL AND THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION IN THE CENTRAL ASIA
The Central Asia, which has passed the eighteenth period of consolidation of new independent states, is one of the new geopolitical regions of the world, having impact on the world processes. They excite a rather great interest of the world and regional political actors. The analysis, presented below, describes the internal political peculiarities of the region, which promote or hinder its unification. Since the Central Asian region is at the stage of consolidation, it is necessary to analyze the interests and capabilities of big foreign policy actors, having impact on shaping regional unity. The countries of the Central Asian region differ in political and social system, type of economy, strategic priorities in the foreign policy. However, there exist essential common features of the political development of the region's states.
After disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian states have passed a rather long way of formation of their statehood. In terms of territory, these state entities finished this formation as the union republics of the USSR for the period of 1924-1936. Up to the second part of the XIX century there existed three multinational states on the territory of the Central Asia: Bukhara emirate, Kokand and Khiva khanates, which did not relate to the areas of the national settlement. Later, a great part of these territories became the components of the
Russia Empire. The national states did not exist on this territory in Soviet times, although the process was going on in the direction of consolidation of political capacity of the title nations in the republics. The backbone of the political, economic and cultural elite in the region was formed already for the Soviet period. Under the Soviet power, the traditional structures of the Central Asian societies (regionalism, clanship) officially were ignored, the party nomenclature was constantly renovated, but in parallel the process, directed to strengthening the clan self-consciousness of the Central Asian peoples, was going on. As a result, in the region already for the period of the USSR existence, the synthesis of the authoritarian-hierarchic power of the Soviets with the traditional scheme of public relations took place. The result of it was as follows: having acquired independence for the 1990s, the Central Asian elites were not radically changed, like in Russia, where the elite society was renovated for more than a half. Tajikistan represents one exclusion, where after the period of fierce civil war the elite was enlarged by representatives of the religious figures.
No country is characterized by the mono-national structure, although the title nations make from 60% to 90% of the population. At the same time, there exists a wide diapason of national minorities in each state. This poly-ethnicity brings considerable pressure to bear upon solving the internal political problems. All Central Asian States, carrying out their internal policy, stressed the question of consolidation of the national component for shaping the mono-national state identity. Some experts quite rightly noted two main tasks confronting the ruling elite of the Central Asian states, related to poly-ethnicity of the region and ethno-cratic characteristic of the power in the Central Asia: consolidation of the title ethnic groups and legitimization of ethnocratia.
Regionalism was strengthening in the Central Asian countries since the time of their independence. In Kirghizstan it was displayed in
division of the country to the south and the north, In Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - in formation of regional clans, in Kazakhstan - in the form of the senior, the middle-aged and the junior zhus. The rigid vertical power in the Central Asian countries gradually transforms into power clan pyramids. Not a single president succeeded to demolish the clan connections. They only counterbalance these connections with the personnel changes and replacements without taking account of the closest circle. The phenomenon of clanship reflects the traditional-patriarcal and social-cultural bases of the population. The crux of these bases consists in the fact that the majority of the population considers the institution of the state power as the system of the just distribution of social and material benefits. This ethnic-social structure of society made it possible to form the elite according to "the clients' principle, based on favoritism of higher officials to relatives and fellow-countrymen in exchange for their loyalty. The clients' model of the elite's formation and functioning has its specific features in each Central Asian country within the framework of the common principle.
The significant specific feature of the political consciousness of the Central Asian peoples is the fact that the state leader is associated with the nation's father, endowed by this community with the limitless power. This circumstance allowed all presidents, irrespective of the term of power, gradually and progressively to consolidate the president's institution as an instrument of personal power. The heads of two biggest states of the region (N. Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan and I. Karimov in Uzbekistan) have remained in power since 1991. Like president of Tajikistan E. Rahmon, they have used the limit of democratic tenure of office at their elected posts. Having defeated their potential rivals and weakened the opposition, these leaders possess strong positions and have strengthened the constitutional status of the presidential republics.
The system of the unlimited power of the monarchic type was created in Turkmenistan by the first president of the country. New president G. Berdymukhamedov, having started his rule in the country after death of Turkmenbashi ("father of all Turkmen") S. Niyazov in the end of 2006, made some changes in the internal policy of the state but kept intact the super power of the president. Thus, the trend to strengthening of the personal power of the president is seen everywhere.
The other specific feature of the political systems of the Central Asian states, connected with the peculiarities of the ethnic-social system of the regional society, is delegation to the president of functions of various branches of power. The difference among the countries consists only in the size of the delegated power. While the influence of the state head in Kirghizstan and Kazakhstan on the legislative and the judicial branches of power seems to be less, in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan the presidential power is not restricted by any conditional provisions.
The Central Asian states are democratic republics in legal terms: the elections of the presidents and members of the parliament are held regularly, the division of authority exists etc. But actually democracy in the region is characterized by certain restraints comparing with classical western examples. Thus, in the Central Asian states there function the so-called delegated democracies, which are more adapted to the existing traditional culture of regional communities.
This system is supported by the majority of the population of the Central Asian countries, except small groups of the opposition. The peculiar feature of the opposition groups in the Central Asian countries is as follows: they are formed not on the basis of the parties with different programs of the countries' governance or their roles of exponents of different social strata of society but their position is the outcome of their removal from power for various political and economic
reasons. It is evident in particular by the example of Turkmenistan, the nearest to the absolute monarchy country, where all opposition leaders (living abroad or being imprisoned) had occupied highest official posts in various times. The same situation exists in the most "democratic" Kazakhstan and Kirghizstan, where each opposition leader was a high official in his time. The official opposition forces function within the framework, allowed by the authorities, under the total official control (Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan). Some opposition leaders were forced to leave Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In the first case, the opposition is very restricted in its actions concerning reformation of the national political system, in the second case, it is unable to exert influence on the national political life.
The parliamentary reforms were executed in the Central Asian countries for the period of the 2000s years. The main reason of these reforms was prevention of the elite's split and of the society's destabilization. According to some analysts, the permanent constitutional reforms may become a rather effective instrument in stabilization of the political process, since they allow to change the rules of political "game" in the extensive diapason without leaving the framework of the constitutional-legal field. At the same time, the reforms of the parliament make it possible to de-politicize big business groups, if not neutralize them, to weaken their political pressure on the authorities. It is especially evident in the example of Kazakhstan. Although some Kazakh companies are still represented in the legislative power, the most influential banking and oil sectors turned to be outside the parliament. At present, the alliance of the high power has been achieved with big business, oriented to the state strategic aims, including membership in the group of fifty most competitive countries of the world. Big business received power not through elections and political parties but owing to the administrative capacity. Creation of
state holding "Samruk", foundation "Kazyn", social-business corporations, union "Atameken", program "30 corporate leaders", shares for legalization of property, existence of their own representatives in the administration of the president, in the government, in the national bank in akimats etc. - all this actually resulted in creation of the situation, when the interests of private and state big business were incorporated in the state policy. According to D. Ashimbayeva, two loosely mutually connected realities appeared in the country. One reality is represented by the parliament, the government, "Hur Otan", the political and administrative reform, mass media, electorate and others, in the other reality exist big business (banks, construction metallurgical and oil firms) and the state corporations. They are united only by the state leader, recognized as the guarantor of stability in "both worlds".
The mutual activities of the power and business are executed approximately on the basis of the same principles in other countries of the region. Evidently, there are particular nuances of the reciprocal action in each state, but the role of the president as the arbiter of interelite contradictions and the guarantor of stability of the ties of business with the power are clearly seen in the whole region.
Actually, the elites of the Central Asian states possess very small political chances, determined by the special features of modernization processes, characterized for the countries of Islamic East. Only two models of political development are realized successfully in such states. They are as follows: the authoritarian secular regime with all shortcomings inherent in it (clans, despotism, corruption) and Islamic theocracy. In spite of the rebirth of religious self-consciousness, occurring everywhere, all states of the region chose the secular way of development. It is possible to concur with the conclusion of some experts that the authoritarian state model of the family type, chosen by the leaders of the Central Asia, is based on the partial social-economic
modernization (introduction of market institutions, creation of conditions for development of social groups of the capitalist society) and on the secular development. The role of religion in politics and economy of the country is minimized within development according to this model. Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia (before its "color revolution" in 1998) achieved greater successes on this way of development. The peak of this model's political development is the peculiar variant of democracy, which keeps the strong role of the leader's personal power, of the army and of the secret service. Turkey presents the most evident example of it.
In perspective, the probable consolidation of the Islamic factor in the internal state politics may occur in some countries of the Central Asian region (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan). This probable phenomenon is connected with both the social-cultural and religious consciousness of the population in these countries and the low social-economic level of development of these countries, which will further decrease due to the extending world economic crisis.
The Central Asian countries are characterized by great differences in the level of their social-economic development at the general rather low level. Two poles are seen clearly. Kazakstan represents one pole, the other countries represent the other pole. In the general regional GNP the share of Kazakstan accounts for 69%, the share of Uzbekistan makes 23%, the shares of Kirghizstan and Tajikistan are much smaller - about 4%. Turkmenistan practically does not take part in the regional economic processes. The economy of Kirghizstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is characterized by the high share of agriculture, the highest level of industrial development exists in Kazakstan, which leaves behind its neighbors in terms of incomes and savings of the population. The level of unemployment and poverty in this country is much less.
The energy complex, the ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy and food industries play the leading role in the industrial structure. The difference is as follows: in Kazakhstan these industries are included in the world economy, while in other countries they are engaged in production mainly in the internal or the regional market. By means of cooperation with China Turkmenistan tries to enter the world market of raw resources. The metallurgy industry in Kirghizstan and Tajikistan produce mainly ore concentrates or crude metal - the initial stage of metallurgical production.
Uzbekistan is the principal supplier of natural gas for Kirghizstan and Tajikistan. It plays a certain role in delivery of cars and agricultural machines. The economic significance of mountainous Kirgistan and Tajikistan is determined by their territorial location in the upper reaches of the main Central Asian rivers - Amu Darya and Syr Darya and by the fact that owing to the hydroelectric stations, located on these rivers and on their tributaries, they may regulate the flow and provide irrigation of the agricultural lands in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan for the period of the cotton and other crops' vegetation. Kazakhstan plays an important role in provision for the region's countries of corn products, fuel and ferrous metals. At the same time, Kazakhstan plays a very great role as a transit country, providing for other Central Asian countries the exit to the European, Russian and Chinese markets.
The CA countries differ to a large extent in the characteristic and intensity of the carried out economic reforms. The gradual market transformation, characterized by the highest centralization of power in the economic sphere, takes place in Uzbekistan. The more rigid centralization of power in governance of national economy exists in Turkmenistan, where market transformation is going on by the slowest tempos.
In the beginning of the XXI century, the growth of economic significance of Kazakhstan promoted its regional leader's ambitions. But these ambitions contradict the informal ethnic-cultural hierarchy of the Central Asian peoples. The Uzbek farmers mentally feel certain cultural superiority over the recent Kazakh and Kirghiz nomads, being at the same time the most numerous people in the region. Therefore the ambitions of Kazakhstan for the regional dominance, supported by its economy, confront the counter action of Uzbekistan, which, to the mind of its citizens, has its historic right for this dominant position. This complicated structure of historic mutual relations and of the contemporary economic dynamics in the CA region makes rather problematic implementation of any projects of regional cooperation. Although the officials of Kirghizstan and Tajikistan support the ideas of the Kazakh leader, in these republic the dissatisfaction grows on, due to purchases by Kazakhstan of many economic objects in these countries. This fact complicates further the situation in relation to integration of the Central Asian region.
The analysis of the situation reveals existence of many different appraisals of further development of the Central Asian region and of each country separately. The perspectives of the Central Asian integration do not inspire with optimism. No common regional project was implemented (the real united economic space was not created, the mutual settlement of ecological issues is impeded). The countries are interested in economic integration with the non-regional countries, primarily with neighboring Russia and China. The countries of the CA region depend a lot on these countries in solving social problems, particularly unemployment.
The Central Asia is still at the stage of development and consolidation. It maintains relations with international institutions and organizations but adopts a very contradictory position concerning
cooperation with them. The peoples, who are settled on this territory, possess the unstable proper identity. It is reflected in the ambiguous foreign policy orientation of the Central Asian states, in the competition for the integration projects, in contradictions among regional institutions and absence of the efficient cooperation within the framework of international organizations. It is regarded and called in these countries to be the multi-vector cooperation.
The started world economic crisis greatly weakened the economic positions of the Central Asian states. The radical decrease of the prices for hydrocarbons and a number of other natural resources resulted in weakening of industrial and financial systems of these states. This fact will urge the governments of these countries towards strengthening economic reciprocal action with more wealthy countries comparing with the Central Asian neighbors - with Russia, China, the EU countries and the USA, since only these countries, possessing big financial and industrial capabilities, will be able to render assistance in overcoming the crisis of national economics. The influence and economic capacity of other states in the region are different. These countries due to certain, external to the region, causes have not yet achieved the consensus on distribution of spheres of influence in the Central Asia. At present, the Central Asia is the arena of struggle not only for natural resources but also for political and ideological influence. The USA, the EU, Russia and China pay greater interest to the region. These countries are united by their urge towards diversification of the sources of the hydrocarbons supply and provision of the routes for their shipment to their markets, aspire for consolidation in the region of their economic and political positions. This task is being regarded in the context of the struggle among the poles of world politics and economy for their global impact. It should be stressed that the Central Asian countries benefit from the rivalry of world and regional leaders. Their high tempos of growth to a
large extent have been achieved as a result of this rivalry. This fact puts off formation of the economic and political unity of the region and creation of the regional economic structure and what is more the political union. This conclusion may be made from the present position of the states, when the time framework of the world crisis is not yet determined.
For the last eight years, the political and economic situation in the region was marked by intensified activities of its neighbors - Russia and China. Russia tries to restore its former positions, using its advantages: unity of the general statehood for almost one hundred and fifty years and economic orientation of a number of branches of national economics to economic unity with Russia, the united pipelines, transportation and electric networks.
The economic interests of Russia in the Central Asia are rather extensive. Some of them are purely economic ties, for instance import and export of traditional goods, while some other goods relate to the foreign policy and geopolitical interests (oil and gas sector, transport, atomic industry). At the same time, the united strategy of political and economic relations with the Central Asian countries has not been elaborated in the RF. All joint economic projects are implemented in the region only on the basis of bilateral agreements. Not a single proclaimed multilateral projects is being implemented. It is determined by the existing situation in the relations among the Central Asian states and by the unbalanced Russian policy in relation to the region as a whole. One of the main reasons of Russian participation in ShOS is a chance to extend its influence on the region and strengthening integration trends in cooperation with it. Russia regards intensification of cooperation with the countries in the military sphere and in the sphere of security as the basis of consolidation of its impact on the region. It corresponds to its contemporary foreign policy directed to strengthening Russian global
positions. Exactly in cooperation on issues of security one may see a clear accent of Russia relating to development of multilateral reciprocal action and integration. Moscow tries to coordinate formation of the regional system of security and intensified its activities since 2007: on the initiative of Russia, the documents were signed on creation within the framework of ODKB of the mechanism of peacemaking activities and extension of military-technical cooperation.
As it was significant, Russia advanced to the leading position in forming the regional security system in relation to the American base in Kirghizstan and the presence of NATO military forces in this republic. Such policy of Russia in the central Asia, characterized by lack of planning and often by post factum actions, produced the outcome with different directions. On the one side, the countries of the region gradually but resolutely extend their cooperation with Russia. On the other side, due to the lack of the Russian general strategy in the sphere of cooperation, the inter-state incidents regularly take place, like the demarche of Tajikistan on hydro-energy problems after declarations, made by D. Medvedev in the course of his visit to Tashkent, or like suspension by Uzbekistan of its participation in EvrAzES due to the unclear Russian position on the direction of shipment of Turkmen gas by Caspian pipeline and SATs-3, under the new agreements.
China as an observer in the Central Asia has elaborated its strategy, with the support of ShOS, directed to active participation in solving the regional problems, to develop relations with the region's countries, to promote their stability and flourishing, as well as to execute its strategic interests, which are concentrated primarily in in the sphere of development of the resources in the Central Asia. Although no official doctrine in relation to the region were proclaimed, proceeding from specific actions of Beijing and public declarations of Chinese politicians and scientists, it is possible to assert that the PRC has a
thoroughly prepared program of reciprocal action with the states of the Central Asian region (CAR). China determines for each country in the Central Asia its own place. As a whole, it is possible to see two spheres of Chinese interests in the CAR: the security sphere and economic mutual action. The Chinese analysts stress the following threats to national security of the PRC: Uighur separatism within the country, religious extremism and terrorism in the adjacent territories, narcotic traffic, American military presence in the region. China strives for keeping stability in the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (SUAR), populated mainly by Uighur Muslims, who expressed not once their intention to create an independent Uighur state.
The separatist "Eastern Turkistan", according to the Chinese party, possesses stations in the region and close ties with the Central Asian religious and extremist organizations, which serve as guides between "the Eastern Turkistan" and the international terrorist organizations, primarily with al-Qaeda. Beijing insists that this fact is a direct threat to national security of the PRC. China takes into account that Uighurs have settled on the territory of adjacent Central Asian states. It urges on the governments of the Central Asian states to toughen their policy in relation to local Uighurs. For instance, there exists the agreement, concluded by China and Kazakhstan, which contains liability to abstain from agitation among Uighurs, living in China. The situation in the Central Asian countries and in Afghanistan excites great apprehension in China. It concerns primarily religious extremism and narcotic traffic. The CA countries in the narcotic traffic play the role of transit countries for shipment of Afghan narcotics to the adjacent countries and the European states. The narcotics enter China from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
The dislocation of the USA and NATO military bases became the most significant geopolitical and geo-strategic problem for China.
Beijing has even more negative attitude to the perspective of the long-term military presence of the USA in the region. The Chinese party permanently carries out the work with the political elites of the Central Asian countries with the aim of restricting the scale and the forms of their military cooperation with Americans. The leadership of the PRC comprehends that it has inadequate forces for the large scale withstand to the USA in the region and prefers to create the regional system of security within the framework of the ShOS. China builds up its economic presence in the region's countries, enlarging annually the reciprocal trade, constructing mutually beneficial communications. China to a large extent identifies cooperation with the Central Asia with the restoration of "the Silk Route". In this sense, the region plays the role of the bridge, which connects China with Europe and the Near East. But China regards "the Silk Route" not only as the system of communications between Europe and Asia but also as an instrument of its global impact on dissemination of technologies, culture and political views. The Central Asia is significant for China from the point of view of development of the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which is greatly behind the eastern provinces of China in terms of development. Creation of favorable external and internal conditions for its accelerated development is one of the central tasks of the Chinese leadership.
Actually, for the next ten years, Russia and China will gradually transform from economic allies into economic rivals in the Central Asia. The following facts prove this conclusion: the implemented communication projects, the problems of coordinating economic cooperation, appeared in the ShOS, gradual exclusion from the Central Asian markets of goods, produced not in China.
The situation in the Central Asia is under the great ascendancy not only of the neighboring countries - Russia and China, but also of distant countries-members of the EU and of the USA. The geopolitical
interests of the USA in the region are very weighty. The USA publicized its strategy "The Grand Central Asia" (GCA); its crux consists in association of Afghanistan with the Central Asian countries in the united military-strategic and economic region. The project is earmarked for limitation of Russia's influence in the region's countries and for containment of economic expansion of China in the Central Asia. On the other side, the USA by means of the GCA intends to limit influence of Pakistan and Iran in Afghanistan. The strategic aim of the USA consists in establishment and maintenance of the USA dominant influence in the region. The economic interests of the USA in the region are connected with activities of the oil companies there. The share of the USA in direct foreign investments in development of new oil fields accounts for 1/3 of $40 billion for the period of independence of Kazakhstan. However, almost the whole amount of the extracted oil is realized in Europe. At the same time, the GCA project supposes to pay special attention to shaping in the region of a big international point for shipment of goods and raw materials as well as for modernization of agriculture in the region for creating alternative to production of narcotics in Afghanistan. The elaborated conception makes stress on Kazakhstan. American companies have made big investments in the oil industry of the country and intend to make new investments. They are very interested in Kazakhstan joining to pipeline BTD, in extension of the Caspian pipeline consortium (KTK) and in participation of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the projected Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The interests of the USA and the EU coincide in this case. A number of American programs provide for financing economic projects to overcome poverty in Tajikistan and Kirghizstan. Lately, the USA demonstrated its intention to arrange the dialogue with Tajikistan on energy problems and to take part in construction of Dzhastizhum hydroelectric station on the river Pyandzh, near the border with
Afghanistan. The USA is interested in laying transportation routes from Tajikistan (through Afghanistan) to the ports of the Indian Ocean, competing with China in this respect.
For the last decade, the European Union's interest to the Central Asia grew over and over again. The amount of mutual trade of the EU with the CA in 2007 surpassed the amount of China's trade twice as much and the amount of Russia's trade - one and a half. It should be taken into account that the EU consists of 27 states, and the trade turnover of all member-states is calculated in this instance, although the biggest partners and investors are the biggest members of the EU in terms of economy and politics. In perspective, the amount of trade will grow constantly. The Europeans are mostly interested in terms of economy and politics in the Central Asia owing to their participation in development of hydrocarbon deposits and in their shipment to Europe by the pipelines round Russia. By cooperation with the Central Asian countries in the sphere of energy, the EU would like to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies. In this context, the European Union supported Kazakhstan joining to oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). The EU is interested in Kazakhstan joining project Odessa-Brody-Plotsk, as well as in implementation of Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project, which allows to fill up with gas the projected European pipeline "Nabucco". However, implementation of this advantageous for the EU project has been postponed for indefinite time, due to construction of the Caspian pipeline and the pipeline Turkmenistan-China.
The European Union is interested also in implementation of project TRACEKA, which supposes construction of the direct transport corridor, connecting the Central Asia with the EU via the South Caucasus, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Actually, TRACEKA represents by itself a half of "Silk Route". A great attention is paid to
commission of TRACEKA visa, which means simplification of the cargo transit and of the passage of the accompanying persons at the border-customs points in the member-countries. In 2007, the EU Strategy for cooperation with the Central Asian region and the program of this cooperation for the period of 2007-2013 was adopted. Both general regional spheres of cooperation and the bilateral mutual action projects were enumerated in the Strategy. Kazakhstan, having possessed big deposits of hydrocarbons, occupies the first place in terms of size of the projected investments. The cooperation with the Central Asia is carried out on the basis of approaches and aims, formulated in the General regional Initiative and in the European Policy of Neighborhood of the EU (EPN) in the Eastern Europe and in the South Caucasus. In this respect, it is supposed to extend mutual actions with the Central Asian countries, involving them in the EPN programs and giving the chance to accustom themselves to the norms and standards of the EU.
The USA and the West European countries succeeded to gain two significant results. First, they made investments in the most advantageous branches of the regional economy, primarily in the market segments, which allowed without great expenses to get financial gains for the relatively short period of time. Second, by means of the thoroughly elaborated, detailed and purposeful work they created the whole strata of in the elite groups of the Central Asian countries, which were oriented and carried out their activities according to the determined rules of behavior. At the same time, the factor of time was an advantageous circumstance in realization of this line of activities.
The natural change of generations in the political elite of the Central Asian republics should have inevitably result in appearance within this elite of new actors, whose mentality was forming in other historic realities, which differed from thinking of former leaders, born and grown in times of existence of the USSR. With due account of this
circumstance, in the West they cherish hopes for the decrease of the role of the Russian language and in general of cultural proximity to Russia in the process of socialization of such new elite groups.
Thus, on the one side, the Central Asian countries have common features in the internal political development and formation of the foreign policy orientation. On the other side, the world and regional leaders have identical interests in cooperation with the Central Asian states. These two factors let the leaders of the Central Asian countries carry out multi-vector foreign policy and find a way round among the centers of force. The multi-vector policy does not lead to shaping common regional interests and therefore does not result in the Central Asian regional unity. On the contrary, it makes them compete for economic investments and political dividends of the players, external for the region. Such situation may result in breaking of the Central Asia as a united political and economic region, keeping only the geographic dominant of unity.
"Politeks", St.-Petersburg, 2009, t.5, N 3, p. 116-132.
