CC BY
19
E. Ionova,
Ph. D. (Hist.), IMEMO RAS
THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
Since the beginning of 2014 political instability in Central Asia has been on an increase, which is associated with the stepping up of the activity of the opposition movements. This situation applies to Kyrgyzstan in the first place, which has been the scene of continuing inter-clan struggle for a long time due to its adverse economic and political position. The political landscape of this small republic is characterized by many parties and groups of influence whose activities are determined by the ambitions of individual figures, above all, but not by any coherent programme.
The national opposition movement "Patriotic Forces of Kyrgyzstan", claiming the status of the united opposition, was formed on February 12, 2014. According to analysts, its nucleus consists of influential people from the South. At the same time, R. Dzheyenbekov, a representative of the North and the leader of the "Democracy" parliamentary group, has become the chairman of the national opposition movement.
The nomination of a compromise figure demonstrated the opposition's refusal to protect regional interests in favor of national ones.
In December 2013, Dzheyenbekov visited the Maidan in Kiev, where he spoke in support of the protesters.
Kyrgyz newspaper "Delo № ..." wrote that the Euro maidan masterminds have announced a general gathering in Kiev: the ExPresident of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili, the former Prime Minister of Poland Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the current Foreign Minister of Lithuania Linas Linkyavichus, Ravshan Dzheyenbekov represented Kyrgyzstan. Washington planned to give him the role of "Kyrgyz" Saakashvili.
On April 10, 2014, the first trial of strength of the new opposition movement took place when rallies were held simultaneously in major cities of Kyrgyzstan. They were not numerous, and the opposition failed to destabilize the situation in the republic at this time.
The opposition camp in the country is not uniform. In addition to the national organized movement "Patriotic Forces of Kyrgyzstan," former associates of President Atambayev, known for their pro-Western orientation have personal motives against the incumbent president. According to independent experts, the West is trying to introduce another "revolutionary project" in Kyrgyzstan now, aimed at maintaining instability in the region and removing it from the sphere of influence of Moscow. An assumption is voiced in the republic that the domestic political struggle will not be stopped, but will replace the accents and participants even in case of success of the opposition.
The opposition proclaimed the strengthening of parliamentarism and the fight against the current authoritarian power as its primary goal. Actually, all the previous "revolutions" in Kyrgyzstan, which ended in the forced resignation of the country's presidents, took place under these slogans. The National Liberation Movement is also against all major projects proposed by the present government, such as entry into the Customs Union, the removal of the United States' air base from the Manas airport, and the new terms of the agreement on the "Kumtor" gold mining enterprises.
Independent experts believe that the opposition's demands are populist in nature and pose a threat to the economic security of Kyrgyzstan. This refers in particular to the nationalization of "Kumtor". Its adoption would lead to a halt of the enterprise's operation and would cause a great damage to the budget of the Republic, when there are no financial resources of its own for the development of the deposit. The refusal to participate in the Customs Union and the Eurasian
integration, as a whole (as the opposition insists) will eventually lead to the economic isolation of the republic and its transformation into an economic protectorate of China, which is effectively developing the Kyrgyz market. Meanwhile, according to Dzheenbekov, such a threat does not exist, however, it comes from Russia, which is not a friendly country to either Kyrgyzstan or other countries on the region, for that matter.
According to Dzheenbekov, "Central Asian countries need to start talks on the inviolability of borders in the region, in order to revise the concept of national security and foreign policy priorities, as the Russian threat is getting closer to our borders every day."
The leader of the "New Opposition" has actively advocated the preservation of the United States' military base at the Manas airport. He explained the need to maintain the US military presence in the country with the ability to earn rentals, additional jobs for local residents, continued partnership with the United States, and the security problems that had worsened after he U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
President Atambayev has strengthened the executive branch and his position through staff changes, thus opposing the growing influence of the President in the South to the intensification of the opposition. Increased tension between the legislative and executive branches in the republic has taken place against the background of the growing opposition since the beginning of the year.
Thus, the collapse of the parliamentary coalition and the resignation of the cabinet (as a result of no confidence vote to the government) were due to the confrontation between the executive and the legislature.
Kyrgyz experts believe that "frequent personnel changes in the policy of Kyrgyzstan are systemic in nature. The political system and culture of the country have a low credit of trust on the part the political
forces. A politician belonging to a particular group of influence becomes undesirable for other political groups after a certain period of work at the top. They initiate the process of his discredit and removal from the post." The last change of government was associated with the stepping up of the activity of the party "Ata-Meken", which is referred to the pro-Western lobby. The unstable political situation in the country deters many foreign investors. At the end of 2013 participants of the riots smashed the office of the Australian gold mining company "Z-Explorer". In 2014 one of the Kazakh companies was paralyzed as a result of mass protests. Demands to nationalize "Kumtor" were accompanied with blocking of roads and violence.
Russian investments are becoming increasingly important for the country where foreign investors are hesitant to invest considerable funds in the country and to participate in long-term projects. Currently, the Russian Federation is among the four key investors of Kyrgyzstan. In 2013, the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic reported a threefold increase in investments of Russian businessmen in the Kyrgyz economy. Assistance provided by the Russian Federation expressed its intention to build a few large hydropower plants, duty-free supply of fuels and lubricants, implementation of energy projects of "Gazprom", including the sale of "KyrgyzGas."
In April 2014, "Gazprom" acquired OAO "KyrgyzGas" for a nominal sum, possessing the gas distribution network in the country. "Gazprom" has guaranteed investment assets of 20 billion rubles over five years. Observers have noted that the transaction is considered a great success, because "KyrgyzGas" is burdened with debt and infrastructural problems, and it was difficult to find an investor.
Cooperation between the two countries has also been strengthened in the military sphere. The Russian Federation renders military-technical support to the armed forces of the Kyrgyz Republic,
it has strengthened its military presence at the airbase in Kant. It should be noted that the coordinating role of Kyrgyzstan in the CSTO has increased considerably with the opening of its operations center in the south of the republic, in the city of Osh, and in 2013 large-scale military exercises of the CSTO were held in the country.
Official Bishkek adheres to the declared position of the complete removal of the US air base from the Manas civilian airport. The signing of a memorandum on the sale of 51% shares of the airport Manas to a sum of $1 billion to the Russian company "Rosneft" in February 2014 evoked great repercussions. As the prices of fuels and lubricants are subsidized by the Russian side, it provided Kyrgyz aviation with access to cheap fuel. The opposition has criticized the government, saying that it sold strategic assets of the country. However, the share of receipts was up to 60% of Manas revenues from the NATO center of transportation, and the airport can fall into a serious crisis without external financial resources, according to the republic's authorities. At the same time, the accession of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union and deeper economic integration with Russia, provoke greater controversy in the country. The opposition has organized protests against the entry of the Kyrgyz Republic into the Customs Union which have taken place even in Bishkek. Many people fear the negative consequences of this step for the economy, especially rising prices of essential goods, as well as a rise in the prices of goods from China due to the introduction of new customs regulations which replenish the budget of the Kyrgyz Republic. There is no unity on this issue in the republican parliament.
The decision to join the Customs Union has ambiguously been received in the country. This could become a political "trump card" of the opposition in order to achieve certain preferences for the economy of Kyrgyzstan. In particular, it concerns a transitional period for three
years and provides subsidies for the maintenance of the national economy in the case of the Kyrgyz Republic joining the Customs Union. The President rejected the "road map" on the entry of the Republic in the Customs Union, which had been evolved by the Eurasian Economic Commission.
The Government of the Republic intends to develop a "road map" of Kyrgyzstan's entry in the Customs Union, after which it shall have to pass expertise in parliament, and only then will it be submitted for public discussion. Then it must be approved by Kyrgyz Parliament, and finally - the founding fathers of the Customs Union.
At the moment, cooperation with Russia remains the dominant vector of foreign policy of Kyrgyzstan. Financial support of Moscow promotes this in many ways. However, the stepping up of the activity of the pro-Western circles, in conjunction with the economic and social problems, threatens Kyrgyzstan with another round of political transformations.
The traditional confrontation of the North and the South may be an additional factor of destabilization of the political situation in the country. At the same time, we should not exclude that such separatist sentiments can be heated by the pro-Western forces interested in destabilizing.
Notes
1 http://topwar.ru/45998
2 http://analitika.org/kyrgyzstan/kg-gov/2649
3 http://analitika.org/kyrgyzstan/kg-gov/2641
4 http://analitika.org/kyrgyzstan/kg-gov/2649
5 http://vesti.kg/index.php7optio n=com_k2&view=item&id=27247
"Rossya i novye gosydarstva Evrazii / IMEMO RAN", Moscow, 2014, No 2, pp. 84-89.
