CC BY
13
G. Lukyanov,
Ph. D. (Political science). Higher School
of Economics, Moscow
GREATER ACTIVITY OF SUPPORTERS
OF RADICAL POLITICAL ISLAM
IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS A THREAT
TO SECURITY AND INTERESTS OF RUSSIA
IN CENTRAL ASIA AFTER 2014
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union more approaches have emerged in the English-speaking scientific and political community toward certain regions in Asia, which resulted in the appearance of such concepts as "Greater Central Asia" or "Greater Middle East," which was supposed to answer the requirements of new scholarly research. Despite the fact that the American school of political science, which is in the vanguard of many branches of modern science, has been the first to react to these changes, the public political discourse changes slowly enough after the professional one. This is reflected in the rhetoric of many contemporary American politicians in the form of numerous clichés of the Cold war time.
Similar situation is characteristic of Russian society. Views of certain scholars aimed at overcoming historical clichés describing and evaluating the political picture of the world are meeting with a strong opposition on the part of mass thinking, which is extremely conservative, as a rule. This concerns, above all, an analysis of various processes going on in the post-Soviet area in connection with the situation in the Middle East, which has now become in the focus of public attention after the events of the Arab spring in 2011.
The experience of studying the political discourse of the Russian-language Internet-area and the printed mass media shows the preservation in the consciousness of rank-and-file Russian citizens (and
also certain researchers) of clear-cut boundary between post-Soviet Central Asia and the rest of Muslim Asia. The heritage of the Soviet epoch determines the perception of the Central Asian republics not as the "foreign East," but as part of the Soviet internal political-cultural area developing by its own special laws. This morally obsolete paradigm reflects the old view on the structure of modern Asia and contributes to the formation of an erroneous perception of the realities of world and regional politics and, consequently, requires a fundamental revision.
This article is an attempt to overcome such stereotypes by examining the influence of the Syrian crisis on the conflict level in Central Asia through revealing the chain of natural sequences, each of which seems to be objective as a result of an analysis of historical experience and current information.
The problem of the future of the Central Asian region after the withdrawal of the international troop contingent ISAF headed by the United States from Afghanistan, which was planned for 2014, is in the center of attention of researchers. As a complex task, forecasting the situation in this case has many variants. For one, an expert group of young researchers under the aegis of the Russian Council on international affairs in August 2012 evolved forecasts of three possible scenarios of the future developments in Central Asia: "Fire-spitting Dragon;" China's Rise, "Green Crescent over Central Asia," "Anaconda Strategy," the West Contains China... Specific features of each variant can be seen from the titles, which proceed from transfer of strategic initiative in the geopolitical confrontation to one of such actors as China, the United States and its European allies, as well as the amorphous structure of radical political Islam. Let us concentrate attention on the "Green Crescent over Central Asia" variant because it
causes more criticism and skepticism, on the one hand, and on the other, promises the region the most fundamental transformations.
The ideas about the threat of radical Islamist movements spreading over the post-Soviet Central Asia are nothing but myths created by the authoritarian ruling regimes with a view to preserving their power by delegitimization of the better organized opposition forces which are based on the ideological premises of Islamism, have spread widely after the events in Andizhan (Uzbekistan) in 2005. The crushing of the manifestation of the discontent of the local population based not on slogans of and calls for Islamization of society, but on aversion of the socio-economic and personnel policy of the authorities by the population has caused many casualties among citizens, and changed drastically the image of the Uzbek leadership in the international arena. Discussions of the violations of human rights in Uzbekistan have pushed to the background the threat posed by Islamist radicals, which considerably lowered the perception level of this danger in the context of the situation in the Central Asian region.
The reduction in the number of terrorist acts perpetrated by Islamists compared with the situation in the latter half of the 1990s -early 2000s, when newspapers and information agencies constantly reported the developments in the Ferghana Valley, has been due to many factors, the main one being the U.S. - NATO invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The stay of U.S. and NATO troops in that country for the past 12 years has been a guarantee of relative peace and tranquility in Central Asian republics, however, the factors threatening this quasi-idyllic situation have not been eliminated. The Taliban and such movements as the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan continue to exist and function in the zone of the Pashtun tribes on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistani border, which has regularly been reported by information agencies and official sources.
Nevertheless, due to the absence of information shocks in Central Asia a skeptical attitude to the Islamist threat in the region has become widespread in Russian society. Even the emergence of jihad organizations in Kazakhstan in 2012, where there had never been any such thing, which caused numerous casualties among the civilian population, has not evoked any anxiety among broad Russian audiences. It should be noted that in Kazakhstan we have witnessed the emergence of a new generation of Islamist organizations, which present a direct threat to the existing system, and this is why any statements that the crisis if Islamism can only lead to its deradicalization or even disappearance are utterly erroneous.
In this connection the possibility of the implementation of the "Green Crescent over Central Asia" scenario does not seem so illusory, especially in an event of the emergence of specific conditions outside the boundaries of Central Asia itself. The transformation of the Arab-Muslim world after the events of 2011 can be the reason for and source of the changes so necessary for Central Asian and Afghan Islamists.
In this context it is necessary to pay attention to interconnections that have been established between the Muslim Middle East and North Africa, on the one hand, and Afghanistan, on the other, from the beginning of the 1980s in relation to the Islamist movement, and single out concrete parallels with the situation unfolding today.
During the period of the direct military-political presence of the U.S.SR. in Afghanistan from 1979 until 1989, the formation of the Islamic opposition to the secular pro-Soviet government of the People's Democratic party (PDPA) of Afghanistan proceeded with the active participation and support of the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, as well as numerous Islamist organization of a radical nature. If the former provided material supplies and political and spiritual patronage, the movements like the Muslim Brotherhood and the just
emerging network organizations, like "Maqtab al-Hidamat, recruited volunteers from the entire Arab-Muslim world for taking part in the "sacred war" against the Soviet Union. The educational and logistics system they have set up enabled them to augment the military forces of the opposition, and also organize a supra-national network of personal contacts and ties between the leaders of various associations of Islamists, which largely contributed to the successes of these forces in the conflict.
As to other Arab regimes (mainly in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Jordan and Tunisia), for them the "sacred war" in Afghanistan became a major instrument of getting rid of unemployed young people inspired by sermons of ardent supporters of radical political Islam, and thus having become dangerous for their own political leaders. This was why the secular authorities interested in the stabilization of the domestic political situation have not prevented the departure of volunteers to Pakistan, where they got in the training camps of mujahids, moreover, they helped them through such institutions as amnesty of political prisoners and their subsequent expulsion from the country. The factor of the "sacred war" against the Soviet Union has played its role in that after the bloody massacre perpetrated by Hafez Asad against the participants in the Homs uprising (1982) in Syria, Syrian Islamists have acted mainly outside their country for several decades; for example, many of them have gone to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet invaders The jihad grouping "Islamic Fighting Group" set up by the Libyan veterans of the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan could form a well-armed unit on the territory of Sudan, from where it began its struggle with the Gaddafi regime.
Twenty-four years later, after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan, there is an absolutely different situation. The change of power that has taken place in many Arab countries not only failed to
solve the socio-economic problems typical of most states of the region, where unemployment among young people had been the most widespread, but, on the contrary, has given rise to new systemic crises and conflicts. The situation in Libya is the most glaring example in this context. After the overthrow of M. Gaddafi the revival process of the state has run across a great number of insurgent units which did not want to renounce privileges and benefits they had gained during the war. At present the "critical mass" of armed young men has reached dangerous limits for the restoration of government institutions and resumption of peaceful life so needed by the new authorities for strengthening their position, and outside actors for maintaining stability in the region.
Syria is another example. The fate of that country and the Middle Eastern region surrounding it, as well as the development of the situation in Central Asia, directly depend on the conflict raging there and its result. The number of various scenarios of the development of the situation in Syria and around it is growing with every passing day. This is why it is possible to make only the most general long-term forecasts, sometimes excluding one another.
Perhaps, the least probable scenario, which, nevertheless, is popular with a great many experts, is the preservation of Bashar Asad's regime and its control over a considerable part of Syria. It presupposes resumption of a dialogue of the present Syrian authorities with big regional players and envisages the need for reintegration of the moderate wing of the foreign opposition in the domestic political life of the country and renunciation of the military means of political struggle. As a result, both radicals and Islamists, who are not interested in the development of such situation will find themselves ousted from political life, and this may give an opportunity to unite many conflicting parties.
In case of the defeat of the present regime and the coming of the irreconcilable opposition to power in the entire country or only in some part of it, all efforts to rehabilitate the country and build a new state will resolutely be opposed by the radical Islamist movements. The latter have a program of social development of their own differing in its nature and essence from similar programs of other movements, which make them active opponents of all political forces without exception. A considerable number of member-states of the "Friends of Syria club" (Iraq, Turkey, Israel) which see a great threat to them in spreading radical political Islam and are interested in the deradicalization and demilitarization of the region in the postwar period and in the emergence of a secular democratic regime in Syria, will have to insist on removal of radical elements from the legal political sphere.
Thus, in the conditions of the realization of any scenario, which does not envisage the coming to power of radical Islamists in Syria, the organizations like "Jabhat al-Nusra" and many other smaller organizations of Islamist "internationalists" will retain their marginal status and become an object of active opposition on the part of their present tactical allies. As a result of the policy of the new authorities the activity of radical Islamists will be "redirected" to North and Northwest Africa and to Central and South Asia. The United States and France are preparing for such course of events (France's actions in Mali and expansion of the U.S. presence in the region), whereas in the latter case the presence of North Atlantic states in the region is gradually reduced.
The redirection of the threat of radical Islam becomes a vitally important component of the survival policy of many old and new regimes in the Middle East, and besides, it corresponds to the aims of the U.S. and EU policy aimed at gradual appeasement of the Mediterranean "soft underbelly of Europe" in the context of a new balance of forces and interests. The dangerous geographical proximity
of the region to Europe and a powerful pressure of migration from it as a result is a challenge to the fragile European socio-economic and political-cultural balance, especially in the conditions of the economic crisis.
The governments of the Middle Eastern and North African states, where moderate Islamists have become participants in a legal political process and members of their governments, are interested in strengthening their own positions in the internal and external arena, including by removing more radical and less controlled fellow-thinkers. But proceeding from the unwillingness of these associations to come out openly against the radical elements close to them in many respects, the only variant of reaching this aim will be redirection of their activity beyond the boundaries of the region. However, such policy serves only medium-term interests of ensuring security in a separate region and increases threats to stability and security in other regions.
In turn, Central Asia today is still very vulnerable to the challenges of radical Islamism in all its forms. In this connection the role of Russia as a state directly interested in the preservation of peace in the region, as well as the responsibility of the CSTO created on its initiative, become more important. One of the main tasks of the Russian Federation and its allies is the creation of a system to oppose the spreading of these threats and disprove the wrong ideas in the mass consciousness of its citizens about absence of direct connections between these processes in the Middle East and the CIS countries close to Russia.
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E. Kasayev,
expert
QATAR - AN ACTIVE SPONSOR
OF THE "ARAB SPRING". PRECONDITIONS,
CONSEQUENCES AND THE RUSSIAN FACTOR
Based on reports of the Russian, Arabic and Western mass media, Qatar has sponsored programs to educate and train leaders of interactive and Internet bloggers in organizational technique for various meetings, protest movements, and removal of protesters from the streets through social networks.
According to mass media reports, the Emirates' authorities have provided financial, technological and strategic assistance for the rebellious people in Egypt, Libya and Syria, and also given ideological
