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IGOR DOBAYEV, NADEZHDA GONTARENKO. RADICALIZATION OF THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST: CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION // The article was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: Islam, the radicalization of Islamic movement, Middle East, national security, Russia, terrorism, Muslim brotherhood, Daesh, Arab spring, Syrian crisis.
Igor Dobayev,
Dr.Sc.(Philosophy), Professor , Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Nadezhda Gontarenko, Graduate Student,
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don
Abstract. This article analyzes complex processes going on in the Middle East, internal and external causes of the radicalization of Islamic movements, relationship between the various factors influencing the change of the situation in one of the key regions of the world and threatening the national security of the Russian Federation. The article also forecasts possible transformations which may take place in the region against the background of radicalization processes and their influence on the Russian Federation.
During recent decades a very rapid radicalization process of Muslim religion and political institutions connected with it can be observed throughout the world. This movement has drawn in such Arab countries as Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Palestine, Yemen, Jordan, the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies, as well as Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan. Radical Islamization is one of the main challenges to the national security of the Russian Federation.1
The Middle East region of the late 20th - early 21st century has retained its geostrategic importance, moreover, it has acquired
the status of a "dangerously explosive knot" and a zone of military-political instability and frequent military conflicts. In recent years they exacerbate ever more often and include ethnic, tribal social and confessional clashes. Due to this quite a few states of the Middle East have found themselves in a very difficult situation. As a result of the revolutionary developments, which were later termed the "Arab spring," certain ruling regimes have become weaker, were ultimately overthrown, and quite a few countries of the Islamic world fell into chaos, growing all the time.
The dramatic developments, which began in December 2010 with mass protests in Tunisia, and which were later called the "Arab spring," became possible above all due to the accumulation of the critical mass of internal conflict-breeding factors in many states of North Africa and the Middle East.2 Meanwhile, according to our view, the "Arab spring", is a chain of "color revolutions," prowestern and pro-American, in the interests of the West (the U.S.A.) with the use of the instruments of network wars. An important subject of "color revolutions" is a foreign player relying on the already formed western and prowestern non-governmental organizations in these countries. This "foreign player" exerted a strong influence on the developments taking place in these countries and organized a broad public and diplomatic support to newly-revolutionary elements. He, directly or indirectly, took part in the neutralization of power or support and organization of the actions of the opposition forces.3 The range of his activity was wide enough: from waging information warts to using economic levers and sanctions, and even to taking part in military actions. All these elements of "network wars" were used by the West in the course of the "restructuring" of the Arab East.4
Beginning from the 1970s the socio-political processes going on in the Middle East and North Africa have been keynoted with the growing influence of political Islam. The Islamists have demonstrated their firm organization and strength and pretend to have become the main force determining the future of the entire region.5 The abolition of the secular regime of Saddam Hussein in
Iraq, the creation of the Palestine Islamist quasi-state in the Gaza sector under the HAMAS domination, the growing popularity of the Shia "Hezballah" organization in Lebanon, the abolition of the secular regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, the civil war in Syria have caused serious changes in the regional political process. The situation is exacerbated by the presence and influence of old problems, among which are conflicts between Palestine and Israel, North and South Sudan Kurd separatism, and tension in Afghanistan, which have become stronger after the creation of the "Islamic state," instability in Pakistan, etc.
It should be admitted that the processes caused by the "Arab spring" are constantly developing. Old power structures have collapsed and now political Islam comes to the forefront.6
In Tunisia - the cradle of the modern Arab revolution - as a result of the free parliamentary elections on October 23, 2011, after the overthrow of the Ben Ali regime, the greatest number of seats (90 of 217) were gained by the Islamist "Nahda" ("Rebirth") party. Its leader - Rashid Al-Gannushi - a noted ideologist of political Islam, and general secretary - Hamadi Jebali, who took the post of Tunisia's Prime minister as a result of the "Nahda" election victory. At the same time Islamic fundamentalists (Salaphites) are bolstering up their positions, claiming political leadership, building an Islamic state, and introducing the Sharia law. Islamization causes a split in Tunisian society, part of which is dissatisfied with the Islamization of socio-political life and abolition of the results of the secular reforms introduced under previous regimes.
In Egypt, after the collapse of the regime of President Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brothers have become the most organized and influential political force. They position themselves as the moderate Islamists, whose political program proclaims general democratic goals. At the parliamentary elections in November 2011 the biggest number of seats (42 percent) were gained by the "Party of freedom and justice", which is a political wing of the Muslim Brothers; second place was won by the "An-Nur" party
representing the Salaphite movement (some time later the parliament was dissolved on the initiative of the military and by the Constitutional Court decision). The presidential elections in May-June 2012 were won by the Chairman of the "Party of Freedom and Justice" Muhammed Mursi, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brothers. He soon dismissed the heads of the Supreme Military Council and assumed all power, both executive and legislative prior to the election of a new parliament. However, the firm position and resolution of the high command of the Egyptian armed forces did not allow the Islamists to realize their far-fetched plans. M. Mursi was soon arrested and is still under investigation, and the Muslim Brothers, for the umpteenth time in their history have become outlawed. The secular regime in Egypt has withstood trials and tribulations with great difficulties.
In Libya, the protest demonstrations against the 42-year-long rule of Colonel Muammar Qaddafi have soon grown into an armed uprising inspired from abroad, supported by a naval blockade and air strikes by NATO. Special NATO units, along with those from certain Arab countries, took part in the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime. Among the Libyan rebels there were many mercenaries from Arab countries, as well as from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Muslim diaspora in Europe. Parliamentary elections took place in Lybia in July 2012, which were won by the "Alliance of National Forces" headed by Mahmoud Jibril, and Islamists from the "Party of Justice and Construction" - a political wing of the local "Muslim Brothers" movement came second. It should be emphasized that many of those rebels fighting against Qaddafi preach radical Islam, and they feel quite comfortable in Libya today. At the same time the new regime is unable to keep the situation in the country under control, inasmuch as real power there belongs to the leaders of clan and tribal groupings and their armed units. It is evident that the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime resulted in Libya's disintegration, growing influence of radical Islamism, and its spreading to neighboring regions, Mali, for example. On part of that country's territory inhabited by clan-tribal
groups of Tuaregs, who earlier supported the Qaddafi regime, an independent Islamic state based on the Sharia law was formed. It was supported by radical Islamic groupings, including Al Qaeda operating in Algeria.7
The situation connected with the Syrian crisis holds a special place in the Middle East. In the course of it the interests are clashing not only of the regional, but also world powers.
The turmoil which gripped North Africa and the Middle East from December 2010 was largely a reflection of the crisis which the Arab world was living throughout several decades in succession, and which resulted in a rapid population growth in the latter half of the 20th - beginning of the 21st century. In the early 1960s the population of the Arab countries reached 100 million. In 2011, during the "Arab spring" there were 400 million people living there, and by 2050 their number may reach 700 million. There are no resources to cope with such rapidly growing population.
The western world has welcomed the "Arab spring," hoping that young people would be able to overcome the gap separating the Arab world from western countries and ensure economic prosperity and democratic order.
However, it soon became clear that the real "season of the year" was not the "Arab spring," but the "Islamic winter." In many Arab countries power was seized by the "Muslim Brothers" organization and its branches and affiliations, whose aim was to build so-called 'Islamic states. In certain countries, for instance, in Egypt and Tunisia, the population has succeeded to avert complete chaos fraught with civil wars, but in other Arab countries state institutions have collapsed and societies have begun to disintegrate. As a result, Syria, Libya and Yemen have joined Iraq and Somalia. In the summer of 2014 the "Arab spring" and "Islamic winter" were replaced with Al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham - the Islamic states of Iraq and Levant, after the militants of these groupings have seized the north of Iraq and the east of Syria. The DAESH and similar movements have emerged due to the transfixions in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq.8
The revolutionary developments in Arab countries have caused a sharp geopolitical and ideological polarization in the region. The geopolitical and ideological forces of the participants in the "Arab spring" can be grouped in five blocs: 1. Conservative Sunna bloc - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which is closely connected with the United States and Israel. The military elite of Egypt (Sisi's regime), certain elements in Libya, the regime of the overthrown president of Yemen Abdrabbuh Mansour Hali, as well as certain forces of the Syrian opposition are oriented to it; 2. The reformist Sunnite (moderately Islamic) bloc: Qatar, Turkey. It is connected with the United States and opposes Israel. The "Muslim Brothers" movement in Libya is oriented to it, the forces of the Syrian opposition, the Palestine "Hamas" movement; 3. The radical Sunnite Islamist jihadist block -the "Islamic state ('Caliphate')". Initially, it had an extraterritorial character and was represented by movements positioning themselves as regional branches of "Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula. The Jihadists were engaged in the fight against the Syrian government beginning from January 2012, and in December 2013 became the main force of the Sunnite revolt in Iraq; 4. The Shia bloc: Iran, part of Iraq, Syria. The Shia movements Hezbollah (Lebanon) and "Ansarullah" (Yemen), as well as the Iraqi "People's volunteer corps" and the Palestine "Hamas" are oriented to it. This bloc maintains relations with Russia and China, as well as with the United States (Iraq). At the beginning of the "Arab spring" it came to the forefront with the concept of "Islamic awakening," however, at the end the forces of the Sunna-Islamists proved hostile to the regimes allied to it in Syria and Iraq. Later on, Iran put the main emphasis on support of the anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist and anti-Jihadist movement within the framework the "Axis of resistance"; 5. Secular "democratic" forces: Tunisia, Iraqi Kurdistan. Apart from that, they participate in the political process in Egypt and Libya on the side of the Sisi regime. The alignment of forces in the Middle East continues to be as complex as ever, and to understand it properly is not a simple task.
The year 1928 is the time of the emergence of the modern Islamist movement in the Middle East. About that time Sheikh Hasan Al Banna founded the "Moslem Brothers" organization in the Egyptian city of Ismailia.9 At first it was illegal and was a mixture of a religious sect and a political party. Its main aim was to unite Muslims on the territory of a genuinely Islamic state with the legal system based on the Sharia law, with the Koran as the main law. All means were considered permissible to achieve this aim, including those of terror.
A number of objective factors had contributed to increasing the positions of radical Islam in the Middle East countries, First, the principles of a general political character - the defeat of Arab countries in the war with Israel in 1967; crisis of official ideologies; Iranian revolution of 1979 and foreign-political activity of Tehran's regime in the export of Islamic revolution; Afghan crisis; Arab crisis after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Persian Gulf war in 1989; growing role of the Middle East in international relations; activity of international Islamic institutions; expansion of Arab migration. Apart from that, the Palestine problem has exerted a negative influence for quite some time. Prior to the early 1990s, the war in Lebanon, where various Islamist extremist groupings were very active, also caused a certain deterioration of the situation. Secondly, the socio-economic situation in the countries of the Arab East was characterized by a whole number of specific features: agrarian overpopulation and a great number of workers in agriculture; too rapid urbanization; inability to provide enough jobs and, consequently, growing unemployment, and great property stratification in society. A special role in the growth of the Islamist factor has been played by general socio-economic dissatisfaction of the Arab people caused by failure of their hopes for a swift and successful economic progress after gaining independence. Nice slogans about prosperity spread by the leaders of Arab states in the 1960s proved abortive, as a result, trust in the leaders of Arab countries has been lost, which caused a crisis of the legitimacy of the ruling circles of the region.
As we have already noted, on March 15, 2011, the "Arab spring" reached Syria. Anti-government manifestations began all over the country, which turned into a virtual full-scale civil war. The groupings coming out against the government received support from the West.
The Syrian crisis is a complex, contradictory global political phenomenon. On the one hand, the Syrian government acts jointly with Iran and the "Hezbollah" movement against the Arab alliance headed by Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf monarchies at the regional level. On the other, at the international level the Syrian crisis is a natural continuation of the "Arab spring." This is why the United States and European Union regard the Syrian government as an "evil force" as a result of which Syria has become the arena of a confrontation between different subjects of world politics. The United States and Europe have taken a harsh stand, having denounced Bashar al Asad's regime for the alleged reprisals against his compatriots, and introduced sanctions against Syria. During that period the terrorist ISIL grouping managed to seize a big territory of Iraq and Syria, as a result of which the ISIL has become one of the main threats to international security as a whole, and the national security of the Russian Federation, in particular. Protecting its national interests Russia positioned itself as an ally of official Damascus.
Diplomatic relations between Russia and Syria were established practically from the moment of the foundation of the Syrian Arab Republic. In the post-Soviet period they continued. Beginning from 2005 the President of Syria has visited Russia several times, and in 2011 the President of Russia arrived in Damascus on an official visit for the first time. From the very beginning of the civil war in Syria in 2011 Russia has supported the Syrian government. Moscow has not only supplied the Asad regime with arms, but also rendered diplomatic assistance. Syria is of a major strategic importance for Russia. In 1971 a Russian naval base was commissioned in the Syrian port of Tartus, which ensured it an outlet to the Mediterranean. The Tartus base is the
only military base outside the boundaries of the CIS. Besides, the Russian Federation and Syria have common economic interests. At the political level the Russian Federation adheres to noninterference policy in the Syrian internal conflict and supports the right of the Syrian people to decide their destiny themselves. Apart from that, Russia comes out as a mediator in resolving the conflict. Moscow has time and again called on the parties to the Syrian conflict to conduct a dialogue with a view to searching a peaceful way out from the crisis.10
The key priority of the national security of Russia in the region is the defense of its territory from radical Islamic terrorism.11 As noted in the new Concept of foreign policy of Russia the global terrorist threat "has reached an unprecedented level after the emergence of the international terrorist organization ISIL and similar bodies, pretending to create their own state formation and increasing their influence on territories from the Atlantic Ocean to Pakistan."12
It should be kept in mind that the influence of radical Islamism on Russian territory is manifested most of all in the North Caucasus,13 where one of the most dangerous and numerous terrorist groupings - "Imarat Kavkaz" - operated.14 In the autumn of 2014 the amir of one of the units of this organization Suleiman Zainalabidov took an oath to the Islamic state. The "Imarat Kavkaz" became a branch of the Islamic state. Similar sections were opened in other republics in the North Caucasus.
These tendencies and processes present a serious threat to the national security of the Russian Federation. It is no secret that part of the people from the North Caucasus fighting on the side of the ISIL will definitely return to Russia, along with new arms consignments, and there is no doubt that new acts of terror will follow.15 Russia cannot wait and see these developments indifferently, which is why the decision was taken to interfere in the military hostilities in Syria in compliance with the Syrian authorities' request.
On September 30, 2015, the operation of the Russian air force units began in Syria.16 The main aims set by Russia in these
operations included fight against terrorism "in distant places," support of the present legitimate government of Syria, and the preservation of the territorial integrity of that country.17
Inasmuch as each side of the conflict pursued its own geopolitical interests, solution of the Syrian crisis has got into an impasse. The greatest profits from such situation were reaped by radical Islamists. And soon terrible acts of terror began to be perpetrated on the Eurasian continent.
There is no doubt that in 2018 the situation in the Middle East will remain no less complex than before. Apart from the Islamic factor, the "Kurdish problem" comes to the fore, which can also destabilize the situation in the region. All these factors are bolstered up by the active interference of certain subjects of international and regional politics, which will lead to greater turbulence of political processes in the Muslim world and elsewhere.
Notes
1 For more details about ideology of radical Islamism see: works by I. Dobayev and I. Sedykh. Rostov-on-Don Socio-humanitarian Knowledge Publishers. 2017.
2 P. Shlykov. Middle-Eastern Policy of Turkey in the Context of the "Arab Spring". http://perspektivy info.
3 I. Dobayev, A. Dobayev. Terrorism and Anti-terrorist Activity in the Russian Federation. Rostov-on-Don. 2011. P. 115.
4 See on the subject: I. Dobayev, A. Dugin. Geopolitical Transformation in Caucasian-Caspian Region // Central Asia and Caucasus. 2005. No 5 (4).
5 A. Demchenko The "Arab Spring" and Russian Policy in the Middle East http://perspektivy info.
6 B. Dolgov. Development of the "Arab Spring": Preliminary Results. http://perspektivy info. B. Dolgov. Op. cit.
8 For more details see: I. Dobayev, N. Romanchenko. Radical Nongovernmental Religious-political Organizations in the Modern World. Rostov-on-Don. Socio-Humanitarian Knowledge Publishers. 2017.
9 For more details see: Negative Consequences of Inclusion of the "Muslim Brothers" in Terrorist Organizations / Analytical Review 27.12.2013. URL. http://russian.people.com.cn/31520/8.196910.html.
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10 Russian-Syrian relations. URL: http://archive.mid.ru/us-russi.nsl/F/.1083B. 7937ne580ncd432569e7004199c2/432569d80021985143256eae003471569?0pen Document.
11 The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 12, 2009 No 537 "On Strategy of National Security of the Russian Federation up to 2020" // Rossiiskaya gazeta - 2009 - No 4912 (88) - P. 16.
12 The concept of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (endorsed by President V. Putin on November 30, 2016). URL.: http://www.mid.ru/ foreign_policy/news/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id2542248.
13 V. Sabirov, O. Sonin, E. Shchekotin, I. Dobayev. Extremism as Civilization Challenge. Novosibirsk, Sibstrim Publishers, 2012, P. 224-248.
14 For more details see: N. Anisimova, I. Dobayev. Network Structures of Terrorists in North Caucasus. Moscow - Rostov-on-Don. Socio-humanitarian Knowledge Publishers. 2016, P. 143.
15 A. Topalov. Islamic State Turns into Main Threat to Russia. URL.: http://www.vz.ru/society/2015/6/75258l.
16 An agreement between the Russian Federation and Syrian Arab Republic on deployment of an airforce unit of the Russian Armed Forces on territory of SAR of August 25, 2015.
17 L. Bastrygina Reasons for Russia's Participation in Solution of Inter-Syrian Contradictions // Collection of reports of scientific student conference. 2016, P. 28-30.
2018.03.001. ALEXANDER KHOKHLOV. ISLAMIC FINANCE: A BOOST TO THE ECONOMY OR A THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY? // "Problemy Natcionalnoy Strategii," Moscow, 2016, № 4 (37), P. 238-248.
Keywords: Islamic financial institutions (IFIs), Islamic banking, Islamic insurance, ideology, legislation, national security, terrorism.
Alexander Khokhlov,
Research Associate.
Regional Center for Ethno-Religious Studies, RISS, Kazan
As the author of the article notes, Islamic banking structures cannot enter the Russian market as the independent actors. They will have to work in conjunction with Russian financial institutions
