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and social-economic conditions, which determine both the similarity and the differentiation of development potentials.
"ENDISI: Analiticheskiy Byulleten", M, 2011, N1, pp. 90-102.
"FOR MANY YEARS WE LIVED IN ONE STATE"
For Russia, Central Asia (CA) is a strategic region. And it is so not only because it has an impact on keeping stability and security of its southern boundaries. The economic capacity, the mineral wealth and labor resources of CA are of great significance for the RF. Finally, it is impossible to ignore the fact that for many decades we lived in one state: first - in Russia and further - in the USSR. The recently published monograph "Russia in Central Asia" (Almaty, 2010), written by D.Sc.(Ec.), Corresponding Member of RAS G.I. Chufrin, is devoted to the most important problems of development of Russia's relations with the CA countries for the period after disintegration of the USSR. The author marks out three large groups of problems. The group, connected with problems of regional security, is devoted to non-traditional threats to security: religious extremism, terrorism, narcotics business and illegal migration. Beyond question is the author's assertion that the main reason of emergence of these threats is as follows: economic instability in the region's countries, the high threshold of poverty and the critical level of social stratification of the population. The author marks out the other very significant problem, which threatens stability in CA - the permanent disagreements among the region's states.
Considering the struggle against these threats, G. Chufrin pays special attention to the struggle against terrorism and narcotics business. The significant work is carried out in these two directions not 76
only in CA countries but also within the framework of their bilateral and multilateral reciprocal action with regional and international centers of influence - Russia, the U.S.A., China, NATO member-states. Pointing out that this cooperation is closely interwoven with rivalry and antagonism of the biggest actors in the region, G. Chufrin in detail considers American and Russian military-political and strategic interests in CA as well as the measures taken by these countries for consolidation of their positions. The author analyzes plans of Washington for dislocation of its own mobile forces in the region, for establishment of its control over military contingents of Caspian and Central Asian states and for rendering different military and militarytechnical assistance. At the same time, he makes the quite appropriate conclusion that in case of realization of these plans "the almost insuperable damage would have been caused to national interests of Russia in the sphere of regional and global security due to the inevitable loss by Moscow of its influence in CA".
The Organization of Treaty on Collective Security (ODKB) is one of the main instruments of Russia for carrying out its policy in the region. Writing about aims and tasks of this organization, the author considers that its further evolution will be influenced not only by external but also by internal factors "conditioned by the existing contradictions among members of ODKB". It is stressed that, despite all disagreements between Russia and the U.S.A. relating to the appraisal of the wished perspectives of the situation's development in post-Soviet CA, these countries can not help maintaining cooperation on the issues of security. Primarily, it is connected with the situation in Afghanistan and probable destabilization in the whole region. The correct remark is made that owing to the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors in contemporary international political situation and existence of crisis phenomena in the world economy, which relate to
strategic interests of both countries, the conditions may appear for more efficient but although limited Russian-American reciprocal action.
The second group of problems concerns economic mutual action of Russia and CA countries. The author mentions two tendencies in the trade-financial cooperation with the region: the substantial growth of trade turnover for 2000-2008 and of its growth tempos, which take the lead over other CIS countries. The bilateral mutual cooperation remains the main form of economic cooperation of Russia with CA countries. As far as multilateral cooperation is concerned, it was and is skidding for almost two decades. And it should be pointed out that implementation of most projects (infrastructure, hydro-energy and others) is possible only on the multilateral basis. The monograph contains an attempt to analyze this situation by example of activities of the Eurasian Economic Community (EvrAzES) and the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, being in the process of creation on its basis.
The problem of regulating migration flows from CA to Russia, which is important for all countries of the region, is considered in the monograph. To G. Chufrin's mind, to the long-term economic interests of Russia "a mass reduction of the number of labor migrants from CA countries does not correspond". Besides, the return to the Motherland of great masses of labor migrants may result in destabilization of the social-political situation in these countries, which will have a significant effect on Russian political interests and security interests.
Finally, "the way of solving the problems of labor migration from CA republics and the role of Russia in this process to a substantive extent will depend on its authority and influence in the Central Asian region", the author considers. The water-economic problem in the region became one of the most complicated, and it periodically causes a significant tension in the inter-state relations. The
water management problem can not be solved self-dependently not by a single state in CA. Russia actually may render assistance to these states in overcoming discords on water problems.
The monograph contains proposals on overcoming this crisis by rendering to them financial and technical assistance by means of change for resources' care. Considering the problems of cooperation in the sphere of transportation and communications, the author makes the main accent on the analysis of pipelines' infrastructure and contemporary tendencies of its diversification coming over to the side of Asian countries - China, Iran and via Azerbaijan to Europe.
Of particular interest is the chapter devoted to the economic cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan. It contains extensive information on bilateral economic cooperation between our countries in all main spheres: financial-banking and investment, scientific-technical, mutual trade, atomic energy, technical-energy complex and agriculture. The third group of problems contains the analysis of reciprocal action of Russia and CA countries within the framework of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation (ShOS). The growing Chinese influence in CA in rather great detail is subject to consideration just in this part of monograph. Actually, the question is the intersecting national interests of Russia and China in the region. The cooperation in the framework of this organization is carried out more efficiently in the sphere of security, since interests of all countries of the region coincide here: the preservation of stability in Afghanistan, the struggle against extremism and narcotics trade. The countries succeeded to create the international legal basis of cooperation in the struggle against terrorism and to start military training for the sake of anti-terrorist activities.
At the same time, the CA state-members of ShOS have a complicated attitude to the initiative of the RF directed to consolidation of the military integral part of ShOS activities. It is connected with their
wish "to keep a maximum of a free maneuverability for ensuring their national security". In this context, the CA countries support China. At the same time, all members of ShOS support the position of Russia in the struggle against terrorism, narcotics traffic and trans-border crime, as well as the need to maintain dialogue and close reciprocal action with other interested international organizations and states. The cooperation in economic sphere goes on with much less speed confronting grater difficulties within the framework of this organization. The author expresses the view that successful implementation in good time of the agreed program of multilateral trade-economic cooperation would have a positive influence on the economic situation in all member-states of ShOS.
The conclusions of G. Chufrin on the potentialities of development of economic mutual action within the framework of the organization attract attention of readers.
First, in spite of existing difficulties, in a number of spheres ShOS possesses a really unique capacity of multilateral cooperation. It concerns energy, transportation, some industries and agriculture.
Second, there is an urgent need to decide questions connected with the character of relations between ShOS and EvrAzES. The lack of this decision has a certain impact on mutual relations of Russia and the countries of the region and on their relations with China.
Third, the need has been outlined to make a correction in position of Russia on multilateral projects with due account of the increased external financial activities of the PRC under conditions of the world economic crisis.
And, finally, fourth, the cooperation within the framework of ShOS should promote not only general acceleration of tempos of economic growth of member-states and structural reforms of national economics, but also realization of common large-scaled programs.
G.I. Chufrin in his monograph actually covered the whole specter of problems existing in relations of Russia with CA countries. These problems are very urgent not only for these countries but also for other states, which have significant political-strategic and economic interests in the region. One of the merits of the monograph is the consideration of probable options of solving these problems.
The review was prepared by Elena Kuzmina, Cand. Sc.(Pol.), (Institute of Economy of RAS), "Azia i Afrika segodnya ",
M, 2011, N10, pp. 76-77.
