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BECTH. MOCK. YH-TA. CEP. 13. BOCTOKOBE^EHHE. 2017. № 1
Mher D. Sahakyan
CHINA'S POLICY ON THE DPRK'S NUCLEAR ISSUE: COOPERATION AND DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE US AND RUSSIA
School of International Studies, Nanjing University
210023, 163 Xianlin Broadway, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China
This article focuses on China's policy, cooperation and disagreements with Washington and Moscow on the DPRK's nuclear issue. Section 1 and 2 give an analysis of the background of developments surrounding the DPRK's nuclear issue and the Chinese position in detail. Section 3 covers China's cooperation and disagreements with the US on this issue. From China's perspective, "no problems in the region will eliminate US interference in regional affairs." Section 4 covers China-Russia cooperation regarding the DPRK's nuclear issue. The arguments are the following: Moscow and Beijing maintain pressure on the DPRK but only to the extent that its political system does not collapse. The Russian-Chinese united resistance against the DPRK's nuclear tests is that that after its tests and missile launches, the US increased its military involvement in the Far East. In conclusion, the author gives recommendation on a possible way to solve the DPRK's nuclear issue, which poses a threat to international security.
Key words: China's Policy in the UNSC; The DPRK's Nuclear Issue; UNSC Resolutions; Nuclear Proliferation; China-US Contradictions in the UNSC; China-Russia Cooperation in the UNSC.
Introduction. The main aims of this article are to investigate and explain China's policy, cooperation and disagreements with Washington and Moscow on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK or North Korea) nuclear issue.
The main methodology used in this article was comparative historical research and analyses of international sources. The drafting of this article was mainly undertaken by direct utilization of UN and International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) first-hand documents and archives, as well as books and articles written by Chinese, American, Korean and Russian scholars and officials.
Mher D. Sahakyan - Ph.D. (International Relations), School of International Studies, Nanjing University (China), Director of the "'China-Eurasia' Council for Political and Strategic Research" Foundation (e-mail: [email protected]).
Another methodology was interviews with Chinese, Russian and American scholars, which provide opportunities to analyze Beijing's and Moscow's views on China-Russia cooperation on DPRK nuclear issues, as well as China-US conflicts and cooperation on DPRK nuclear issues in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).1
As a permanent member of the UNSC and an important player in international relations, China has the capability and authority to address and solve internationally important problems. In turn, international society is also interested in Beijing continuing its active involvement in the improvements in world security.2
China plays a decisive and important role in the negotiations regarding the DPRK's nuclear issue. The de facto withdrawal from the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) by the DPRK led to a new political situation in the international community. The DPRK's nuclear weapons may trigger a decision by other Far East countries to acquire nuclear arsenals. The balance between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) has already been violated in favor of the former. Whether the ROK will continue to rely on the American nuclear umbrella or develop its own nuclear weapons depends on the final results of negotiations. Japan has previously announced that the DPRK's nuclear arsenal is a threat to its national security, which means that Japan3 may consider a possible substitute for the American nuclear guarantee. Tensions regarding the DPRK's nuclear issues threaten the entire political and economic stability of the Far East.
China is the second-largest economy in the world, and Japan and the ROK are extremely well developed economies. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Indian economies continue to grow rapidly. Tension or military actions in the Korean Peninsula can harm economic development throughout the entire region. However, after missiles and nuclear tests, the DPRK seems to be playing its own game, as it has not accepted UNSC resolutions. Officially, Pyongyang announced its
1 See: Interviews by the Author.
2 Mher Sahakyan. China's Reforms to Improve Its Peacekeeping Capabilities: China's Growing role in UNPKO (2000-2013) // Moscow University Bulletin. Series 13. Oriental Studies. 2016. No. 1. P. 56.
3 Mher Sahakyan. "China's Policy on DPRK Proliferation Issue in the UNSC (20002013). Paper presented at the "New European Research on Contemporary China," Conference organized by the French Center for Research on Contemporary China, Delegation of the European Union to China, 2-4 July 2014.URL: https://cdn1.euraxess.org/sites/default/ files/news/european_conference_program_final.pdf (accessed March 8, 2015).
withdrawal from the NPT and rejects international norms; this behavior discredits the effectiveness and authority of the UN, as well.
In a broader sense, the DPRK continues to attempt to solve its national security problems by developing missile systems and nuclear weapons. However, these projects harm the DPRK's political relations with the international community, including with allies such as China. When the DPRK began nuclear tests,4 China was initially surprised and attempted to punish the DPRK for its actions by voting for sanctions against the nation.
The following question therefore arises: Which action is more useful for a state? Developing nuclear weapons would give the opportunity to deter any offensive activity, whereas having allies and expanding economic relations would deter any possible revolutions or economic collapse. Recent world history offers a cogent example. The Soviet Union was one of the most powerful states in the world, but history has nevertheless shown that it is difficult to maintain sovereignty without a modern economy, free trade and open economic relations with the international community. Moreover, if a state's economy collapses, no nuclear weapon can help.
The next hypothesis is that the DPRK's government understands that the ROK's economy develops quickly and that they are far from the ROK's level of economic development. However, they want to show their domestic audience that they are building a modern and strong state.
Although the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty and New Start treaties between Russia and the US might encourage other countries to reduce their nuclear capabilities, the DPRK's nuclear tests can lead to a new nuclear arms race.
View from Beijing on the DPRK's Nuclear Issue. In response to the DPRK's nuclear tests, the UNSC chose sanctions as the appropriate way of halting the proliferation of Weapons of Mass destruction (WMDs) in the Far East. UNSC sanctions on the DPRK primarily targeted the military, financial and nuclear sectors of this country. China condemned the DPRK's nuclear test and voted affirmatively for Resolutions 1695,
4 "It is no secret that for many years, the DPRK was supplying missiles systems and nuclear technologies to Syria, Iran, Libya, and Iraq. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) made clear that at least part of the UF6s provided to Libya in 2000 and 2001 likely originated in the DPRK, confirming the possibility of operational UF6 production prior to 2001." It will be difficult to successfully convince the DPRK to halt its missile production, which brought more than one billion dollars of income per year until 2006. It is very profitable business. See: Report of the Panel of Experts Established Pursuant to Resolution 1874 (2009). URL: http://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/unsc-june2012. pdf (accessed December 8, 2014).
1718, 1874, 1928, 1985, 2087, 2094 and 2270.5 With these steps, China sent a message to its partners in Pyongyang, stating that Beijing is not interested in a nuclear arms race in the Far East. Chinese decision makers sent another message to Western colleagues stating that they are ready to cooperate within the framework of negotiations and would not accept any attempt to solve the DPRK's nuclear issue militarily. As China's Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai during his interview with "Foreign Affairs" mentioned, "First, we stand for stability. Second, we stand for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Third, we stand for peaceful means. These three elements are interrelated; you cannot have one at the expense of the other two. We just cannot distance ourselves from North Korea geographically. That's our problem-it's so close to us. Any chaos or armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula would have a major impact on China's national security interests."6
Contributions of the Chinese researchers show that the opinions of China's researchers are divided on this issue. One segment of Chinese researchers believes that the DPRK is not China's friend and that its behavior and nuclear arsenal is a threat to Chinese security.
As EX-deputy editor of Study Times, the journal of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China Deng Yuewen wrote, "For several reasons, Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean peninsula. North Korea's unification with South Korea. Bringing about the peninsula's unification would help undermine the strategic alliance between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul; ease the geopolitical pressure on China from Northeast Asia (NEA); and be helpful to the resolution of the Taiwan question."7
In turn, Chinese scholar Dong Xiangrong mentioned, that "There are still some voices in China calling for the end of the military alliance relationship with North Korea. China might be dragged into a new war because of North Korea's provocations which may disturb the peaceful development. China's image is hurt by its 'axis of evil' ally."8
The second segment of Chinese researchers believes that the DPRK is a buffer between China and Japan and between Chinese and US troops
5 UNSC Resolutions are available online, at: http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/ resolutions/
6 Cui Tiankai. Interview with Tepperman, Jonathan. Beijing's Brand Ambassador: A Conversation with Cui Tiankai // Foreign Affair. 2013. Vol. 92. No. 4. P. 6.
7 Deng Yuewen. China should abandon North Korea //Financial Times. 2013. URL: http:// www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e2f68b2-7c5c-11e2-99f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3GGyjwV7j (accessed June 30, 2015).
8 Dong Xiangrong, China's Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2013. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 243-255.
that are based in Japan and the ROK and that China must help the DPRK for this reason.
As stated by Chinese scholar Shi Yinhong, "China would like to maintain the DPRK as a 'strategic buffer zone,' or at least it would prefer not to have a hostile and troublesome DPRK on its border China must not allow the denuclearization process and its own role in this process to seriously damage China-DPRK relations, which would make China a loser in a major geopolitical game-even if the DPRK were by some 'miracle' really denuclearized." 9
In turn, the second segment of Chinese researchers can be further divided into two groups. The first group believes that China should help the people of the DPRK because of the longstanding Sino-Korean relationship, but representatives of this group like to add that the Chinese do not like the Kim dynasty.
The second group of this segment of Chinese researchers believes that the DPRK is China's strategic partner, as evidenced by the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance of 1961, and that China must continue to help the DPRK maintain its political system.
The Chinese scholars Fang Xiu-yu and Xin Hua believe, "The relations between China and the Korean Peninsula can be summarized into a single Chinese proverb: interdependence as close as the relationship between mouth and teeth. For China, the Korean Peninsula is a highly valuable geopolitical asset that directly influences or even shapes China's national security."10
If we consider, that the DPRK is still China's ally due to the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, Mutual Assistance, that was signed by China and DPRK in 1961, which obligated each party to come to the aid of the other if attacked, so the following question arises:
Why did China accept sanctions against its so-called ally?
China is disappointed by the fact that nuclear weapons technology is being spread to neighboring states, which may be a reason for the possible nuclear arms race in the Far East.
As once George Shultz nicely summarized the argument, "Proliferation begets Proliferation."11
9 Shi Yinhong. China and the North Korean Nuclear Issue: Competing Interests and Persistent Policy Dilemmas // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2009. Vol. 21. No. 1. P. 34-35.
10 Fang Xiu and Xin Hua. China-U.S. Relations and the Security of the Korean Peninsula // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2013. Vol. 25. No. 3. P. 359.
11 Scot Sagan. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of Bomb? // International Security, 1997. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 57.
Thus, if the international community could not find the ways to urge the DPRK's government to completely, verifiably, irreversibly dismantle its nuclear arsenal, it is possible that other countries in the region such as Japan and ROK, which have the capability to build nuclear weapons, would strive to repair the balance and would start their own nuclear programs. They can announce that the DPRK's nuclear weapons threaten their security and that they need to build their own to deter the DPRK. It is worth mentioning, that before the first nuclear test of the DPRK, China was the only legal owner of nuclear weapons among its eastern neighbors. Nuclear weapons give China an advantage against its perpetual opponent, Japan. This fact provided an impetus to China to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons in NEA.
"This kind of developments seemed realistic, when in June 2012 some suspicions were raised over Japan's possible ambition for military use of nuclear programs when the Japanese government amended its Atomic Energy Basic Law by adding a new provision which states, ' [The principle to secure nuclear safety] should be .. .aimed at contributing not only to defending people's lives, health, and assets and protecting the environment but also to Japan's national security."12
The Chinese nuclear arsenal deters Japan, but what will happen if Japan creates nuclear weapons as well? China would lose its coercive deterrent against its historical opponent.
In this regard, American scholar Scott Sagan stated, "First, strong states do what they can: they can pursue a form of internal balancing by adopting costly, but self-sufficient, policy of developing their own nuclear weapons. Second, weak states do what they must: they can join a balancing alliance with a nuclear power, utilizing a promise of nuclear relation by that ally may be the only option available, but the policy inevitably raises questions about credibility of extended deterrence guarantees, since the nuclear power would also fear relations if it responded to an attack on its ally."13
I do not agree with his argumentation. In a possible nuclear arms race, countries with limited financial and scientific capabilities that are not able to finance their own nuclear weapons programs would suffer greatly. In addition, the autonomy of countries with limited capability would be at risk because of the nuclear threat from their neighbors. I believe that there is no permanent alliance in the world. If we consider the China-DPRK military alliance, we would see that in this situation, the DPRK does not
12 Katsuhisa Furukuwa and Hajime Izumi. Japan's Response to North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Tests // North Korean Nuclear Operationality: Regional Security and Non-proliferation. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013. P. 110.
13 Scot Sagan. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons: Three Models in Search of Bomb? // International Security, 1997. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 57.
want to rely solely on China's nuclear umbrella to deter US or ROK probable aggression; thus, the DPRK built its own nuclear arms.
In turn, US scholar Gregory J. Moore believes that China has increasingly come to see North Korea as a brotherly pain in the neck. Beijing's patience with Pyongyang is running thin, even more so since the 2009 nuclear test. If Pyongyang were to reject a US offer this gracious, Beijing would be more likely to shift further toward the US /ROK position on the matter, further isolating North Korea.14
I do not agree with this idea. I believe that China will continue to press the DPRK and urge it to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, but Beijing will never entirely turn to the US and leave the DPRK in complete isolation. It appears that if China agrees with the US's wishes to isolate the DPRK that such an event would mean the beginning of the collapse of the DPRK. I believe that after this step, the US would reach a separate agreement with Pyongyang. The history of international relations features several examples designed and implemented by the US as follows: the first event was when the US improved its ties with China without discussing this step with Japan, and the second event was when the US improved its relations with Vietnam - a country that the US had struggled with in the past. Currently, the US serves as a reliable patron for the guarantee of security in Vietnam. The US-Vietnam strategic partnership is surely in opposition to China's interests.
From my point of view, China would continue to support the DPRK in building its economy,15 which would give Beijing a chance to maintain its influence over the DPRK. Further, Beijing will continue to improve its ties with the ROK, as the ROK is the third-leading economic partner of China. China will attempt to find ways to demilitarize and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula with the ROK. From Beijing's perspective, these steps will provide an opportunity to reduce the US's influence in the Far East. We can conclude that from China's perspective, "no problems in the region will eliminate US interference in regional affairs."
14 Georgy J. Moore. North Korean Nuclear Weaponization: A U.S. Policy Failure. In North Korean Nuclear Operationally: Regional Security and Nonproliferation. Johns Hopkins University Press. 2013. P. 43.
15 As China invests in the DPRK's economy and sends aid, many foreign scholars believe that it can force the DPRK to change its attitude and dismantle its nuclear arsenal; however, when Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, spoke about China's influence on North Korea, he said, "There are always some misunderstandings about China's influence on the DPRK. China-DPRK relations are in the final analysis state-to-state relations, which are regulated by the basic norms of international relations that all abide by. Yet, as neighbors, the two countries have interacted a lot, which is all very natural. The Six-Party Talks is not a matter for China alone; the other five parties must play their part, particularly, the US and the DPRK." See: Foreign Minister Wang Yi's Exclusive Interview with the Financial Times // Beijing Review. No. 9. 2014. P. 6.
In sum, during the negotiations16 for preventing further nuclear proliferation in the Korean Peninsula, China is in the most difficult position because it attempts to push the DPRK to continue the negotiation process and to stop developing new nuclear weapons. China also makes an effort to ease sanctions on the whole.
Beijing cannot allow an unstable situation in the DPRK, which would cause thousands of refugees to flee from the DPRK to China; thus, China is interested in the DPRK's stability. Additionally, the government of China believes that if a communist regime is maintained in Pyongyang, China would be able to use the DPRK's massive army in a possible "West-East" confrontation.
China-US Disagreements and Cooperation on the DPRK's Nuclear Issue. China-US competition for political influence on the Korean Peninsula began following the Second World War and escalated during the Korean War, as China was struggling with the DPRK against the US and its allies.
The DPRK's nuclear arsenal and tense relations between the DPRK and the ROK remain threats to the security and stability of the entire Far East. The conflicting parties have powerful military allies. On July 11, 1961, China and the DPRK signed the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, and in 1953, the ROK and US signed Mutual Defense Treaty. Due to this treaty, the US maintains troops in the Korean peninsula.
In this regard, Professor Chu Shulong wrote that in the early 1950s to early 1970s China opposed the ROK-US alliance, considering security arrangements and US troops on the Korean peninsula as a major threat to China's security. But in the early 1970s and 1980s, China, according to Chu, opposed the alliance in principle, but considered it a counter to Soviet military power and supported the DPRK demand for US withdrawal. In the 1990s, China, as Chu described, had mixed feelings about the alliance and the US in Korea. The Russian threat was gone. Some came to fear use of US forces someday against China.17
In turn, American scholar Garver takes the stance that, "A state of war still exists on the Korean peninsula. US - ROK military capabilities are honed primarily to deter North Korea from provocative actions that might lead to hot war, and/or ensure a short victorious war if a mad North Korean leader launches a second Korean War. War, US and ROK
16 The main negotiations involve the DPRK, ROK, China, the US, Russia and Japan. The negotiation process is difficult and, from time to time, the DPRK withdraws.
17 Eric McVadon. Korean Issue in U.S.-China Relations 1990-2010// The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2010. Vol. 22, No. 2. P. 141.
will certainly work to achieve understanding with Beijing about how such provocation should be dealt with."18
In fact, the US has a military presence near China's eastern borders (in Japan and in the ROK), and the DPRK's nuclear issue has given the US an excuse to relocate more troops to the region and try to relocate its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) advance missile defense system to deter the DPRK.
From Beijing's perspective, a concentration of US troops or relocation of the US missile defense system near its borders are also a real threat to China.19 China helps maintain Pyongyang's regime so that its army can keep away and deter US ground troops from Beijing and Eastern China, which are located south of the Korean Peninsula.
From previous experience, the Chinese people also know that the No.1 US ally in the Far East, Japan, might attack China if it strengthened its position in the Korean Peninsula.
Many Chinese and foreign scholars believe that the US is in fact simply attempting to hinder China's rise as a superpower.
For instance, Chinese scholar Zheng Jiyong believes, "The US strategy on the Peninsula can be summarized as a manipulation of controllable 'chaos'. By doing so, the United States can hold a firm grasp over the two pivotal strategic points—the ROK and Japan—in containing the rapid rise of China."20
According to Chinese scholar Shi Yinhong, from time to time, the US attempts to increase pressure on China so that it does not support the DPRK. As he mentioned, "President Obama exerted strong pressure by urging China twice to restrain Pyongyang. First, in a phone call to Hu Jintao on December 6, 2010 and again over a private dinner at the White House on January 8, 2011 during Hu's state visit, President Obama pressed the Chinese leader to take a harder line toward North Korea or otherwise the United States would have to take long-term measures like redeploying
18 Garver, W. John. Interview by Author. By E-mail. December 11, 2015.
19 China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi also expressed China's opposition to the US's possible deployment of THAAD missile defense system in ROK, requesting that the US side should act prudently, and should not take advantage of current situation to jeopardize China's security interests or increase new complexities to the peace and stability of the region. See: Wang Yi Meets with Secretary of State John Kerry of US. 2016. URL: http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1340528.shtml (accessed February 24, 2016).
20 Zheng Jiyong. The "Conflict-Reconciliation" Cycle on the Korean Peninsula: A Chinese Perspective // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2012. Vol. 24, No. 1. P. 128.
its forces, changing its defense posture, or beefing up military exercises in NEA."21
"China's diplomacy often focuses on the US, Europe, and Japan, so its relationship with the Peninsula is to a larger degree subordinated to its relationship with the US. At the same time, China's diplomatic strategy is largely restrained to a defensive position, in contrast to the more offensive global strategy of the US. Emphasizing China-US relations and the stability of NEA, Chinese diplomacy looks forward to promoting a cooperative joint-governance with the US in the region and attempts to avoid any negative effect that Korea related issues might pose to the stability of the China-US strategic relationship and the smooth development of East Asian economic integration."22
In this regard, Chinese scholar Shi Yinhong mentioned, "The first and most important of China's vital interests related to the North Korean nuclear issue is peace-a 'cold peace' on the Korean peninsula and between North Korea and the US, and an absolute peace between China and the US. China's minimum goal is to prevent the North Korean situation from deteriorating and forcing China to make a nearly unthinkable choice between the worst of the two worlds."23
In sum, China and the US have different visions for the future political development of the Korean Peninsula. China would like to maintain the DPRK's stability, whereas the US attempts to weaken it by sanctions. If it finally crashes, the US wishes to change the regime and unite it with the ROK. By contrast, China attempts to limit its disagreements with the US and maintain peace in the Korean peninsula; however, China's strategy is also to develop high-level political and economic relations with the ROK, connect the ROK's economy with China's economy and, as a result, weaken the US in the Korean Peninsula. This strategy may yield results, but the main obstacle is that the DPRK periodically takes provocative actions, including nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches. Thus, ROK leaders continue to see the US as the main guarantor of ROK security. As a result, the US maintains a military base in the Korean peninsula.
21 Shi Yinhong. New Games in Tightly Fixed Structures: North Korea's Volatile Desperation and China's Cornered Strategy // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2011. Vol. 23, No. 3. P. 361.
22 Zheng Jiyong. The "Conflict-Reconciliation" Cycle on the Korean Peninsula: A Chinese Perspective // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2012. Vol. 24, No. 1. P. 132.
23 Shi Yinhong. New Games in Tightly Fixed Structures: North Korea's Volatile Desperation and China's Cornered Strategy // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 2011. Vol. 23, No. 3. P. 34.
However, China and the US also have one common goal: to remove nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula and prevent a possible nuclear arms race in the Far East. The main reason for cooperation between the US and China is that the two superpowers oppose nuclear proliferation in the Korean Peninsula.
China-Russia Cooperation Regarding the DPRK's Nuclear Issue. In a broader sense, in the UNSC, Russian diplomacy regarding the DPRK's nuclear issue entails finding solutions with China and subsequently negotiating with other partners. Russia attempts to use its influence on the DPRK to support the negotiation process. The main positions of Russia and China on the Korean nuclear issue match as both sides want to see the Korean Peninsula without nuclear weapons and the peaceful development of the DPRK.
Russian scholar Andrey Baklitskiy proposes that there is no any struggle over the DPRK between China and Russia. Beijing has great influence in the DPRK, though Russia is also currently attempting to improve its influence in the DPRK.24
It appears, that for this reason, Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified a law that writes off almost 10 billion dollars of DPRK Soviet-era debt.25 This step would provide an opportunity for Russia to repair its influence with the DPRK.
In turn, the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov, believes that the DPRK always attempts to play on Sino-Russian disagreements. Generally, Kim Il-Sung attempted to use Sino-Soviet disagreements to obtain political and economic dividends for his regime. He also mentioned that Russia and China have very good relations; under these circumstances, the DPRK has no chance of playing and receiving dividends regarding the confrontation between Beijing and Moscow.26
24 Baklitskiy, Andrey. Interview by Author. Abramcevo, Russia. 2015. September 5.
25 Официальные сетевые ресурсы Президента России. (2014) О ратификации Соглашения между Правительством Российской Федерации и Правительством Корейской Народно-Демократической Республики об урегулировании задолженности Корейской Народно-Демократической Республики перед Российской Федерацией по предоставленным в период бывшего СССР кредита // kremlin.ru. (Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia. Ratification of the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the DPRK on the Settlement of the Debt of the DPRK to the Russian Federation for the Loans Provided by the Former Soviet Union). URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/20916 (дата обращения: 01.06. 2014).
26 Kortunov, Andrey. Interview by Author. Moscow, Russia. April 15, 2015.
One view, expressed by Chinese scholar Shen Dingli is that the common pursuit for a nuclear weapons free Korean Peninsula through political process has united Russia and China.27
The following question therefore arises: What is uniting Beijing's and Moscow's positions on the DPRK nuclear issue in the UNSC?
I. China and Russia are responsible powers that are interested in dismantling the DPRK's nuclear arsenal. China is not interested in seeing its neighbors become new members of the "nuclear club". Russia is also interested in maintaining the balance of power in the Korean Peninsula and Far East.
II. The second reason for the Russian-Chinese united resistance against the DPRK's nuclear tests is that that after the DPRK's nuclear tests and missile launches, the US increased its military involvement in the Far East, arguing that it must protect the ROK and Japan from the DPRK threat, but in fact it is against China and Russia as well. The ROK and Japan subsequently began increasing their military potential in the Far East.
III. China and Russia28 are against the rhetoric of US politicians who emphasize the importance of changing the DPRK's political regime. Any type of political instability in the Korean peninsula would deepen - not solve - the political crisis in the Far East. Russian and Chinese decision makers understand that if the US leads political changes in the DPRK, it would completely change the direction of Pyongyang's foreign policy and that the country would move into the Western camp. These types of possible developments in the DPRK would limit Russia's and China's ability to maneuver in the Far East.
IV. In the UNSC, China and Russia have attempted to maintain stability and the balance of power in the Korean Peninsula. Concurrently, along with the other main players of the international community that were involved in the negotiations on the DPRK's nuclear issue, they continue to press the DPRK to return to the negotiating table to discuss dismantling its nuclear arsenal. In the UNSC,29 Moscow and Beijing maintain pres-
27 Shen, Dingli. Interview by Author. By E-mail. January 6, 2016.
28 In addressing the inadmissibility of a military strike against Syria, President Putin said, that under these circumstances, if international community made an effort to convince the DPRK to give up its nuclear program and to place its nuclear weapons in a warehouse under international control, the DPRK might respond by contending that the DPRK would be destroyed the next day. See: Толорая Георгий. 2014. Россия и проблемы Корейского полуострова на современном этапе // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. № 4 (37). С. 86 (Gregory Toloraya. Russia and Countries of the Korean Peninsula).
29 American researcher Joel Wuthnow mentioned, "In general, China does not like to have to exercise a sole veto in the Security Council, and often finds itself counting on
sure on the DPRK but only to the extent that its economic and political systems do not collapse.
V. China and Russia30 continue to develop their economic relations with the DPRK, given the limitations of the UNSC sanctions. These economic relations provide an opportunity for the DPRK regime to maintain its political and economic systems. China's investments and economic aid are the DPRK's main guaranties of stability. As developments have shown, China and Russia can exert influence on the DPRK; however, regarding its nuclear policy, the DPRK has independently chosen its steps and listened to neither Beijing nor Moscow.
VI. China31 and Russia cooperate regarding the DPRK's nuclear issue and do not let the US and its allies isolate and destroy the DPRK; on the other hand, when the Russian bear returned to Korean Peninsula, a hidden struggle would develop between Russia and China for influence in the DPRK. This would provide more room for the DPRK's diplomats to maneuver between Russian and Chinese disagreements, as was the case during the Cold War, when the DPRK's leaders were playing on disagreements between China and Russia.
VII. China and Russia are against US and ROK's use of the DPRK actions as an excuse for deploying the THAAD missile defense system, as it could become a real security threat for both China and Russia.
Russia's support to oppose UNSC measures being proposed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter." Interview by Author. By E-mail. December 16, 2015.
30 Russian scholar Yuri Fedorov believes that if the DPRK ever agrees to a genuine dismantlement of its nuclear arsenal, it would be undertaken only in exchange for billions of dollars of investment from the US, Japan and the ROK. He believes that this type of development can change the political course of Pyongyang, which is an undesirable result for China and Russia. See: Юрий Феодоров.2005. Корейский ядерный кризис и Россия // Ядерный контроль. № 4 (78). Т. 11. С. 52 (Yuri Fedorov. The Korean Nuclear Issue and Russia).
31 China states, that the DPRK's nuclear issue must be resolved only through diplomacy. In this regard, China's foreign minister Wang Yi mentioned, "China's position on the issue is clear, consistent and unchanged. We are opposed to the DPRK's development of nuclear weapons and committed to the denuclearization of the peninsula. How can this issue be resolved? It must be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. The extreme approach of military action is no option. We have stated that China will not allow trouble to be created at its doorstep. Denuclearization of the peninsula can only be achieved through dialogue and negotiation. The Six-Party Talks is the only viable path to achieve this goal. Our basic position is that the peninsula must be denuclearized and the DPRK's legitimate security concerns should be addressed, as this is only fair and reasonable." See: Foreign Minister Wang Yi's Exclusive Interview with the Financial Times // Beijing Review. 2014. No. 9. P. 5.
Conclusion. From my perspective, the DPRK's nuclear issue can be solved if the US, China, Russia, the ROK, and Japan can come to a united conclusion.
What type of policies do these 5 countries have?
The US has long attempted to find ways to change the DPRK's political system or to disrupt the DPRK's weak economy and receive concessions from Pyongyang. Japan, with some exceptions, has attempted to follow US policies. The ROK has tried to maintain economic relations with the DPRK, but at a low level. China, by contrast, continues its economic relations with the DPRK, given the limitations of the UNSC sanctions. Beijing has urged the DPRK leaders to implement Chinese-style economic reforms and continues to provide the DPRK with food aid. China therefore attempts to maintain influence in the DPRK to prevent unpredictable or dangerous steps by Pyongyang, but as past developments have shown, the DPRK tries to play its own chess game and make decisions by itself.
Russia has attempted to reestablish its influence in the DPRK, which was lost when the USSR collapsed. For this reason, Moscow wrote off the DPRK's debt.
Therefore, we have 5 players+ the DPRK, and every player attempts to play its own game. I believe that the DPRK also tries to gain from the disagreements of the above-mentioned global and regional powers (China, Russia, the US, the ROK and Japan). I believe these powers can agree from their side that nobody should separately or secretly sign an agreement with the DPRK. The powers can offer the DPRK support for developing its north regions, which border China, to prevent further immigration to China from the DPRK's poorest regions. The 5 powers must announce that they have no intentions of changing the DPRK's political system so that the DPRK does not need nuclear bombs to prevent such developments. I believe it is important to maintain an arms embargo and control the import and export of nuclear dual-use materials to the DPRK, but it is nonetheless possible to suspend heavy economic sanctions. These steps will provide the opportunity to build confidence among the negotiating parties and improve the DPRK's economic situation, which in turn will give added impetus to stop the immigration of the DPRK's citizens into China, which Beijing would like to prevent. The 5 powers can offer the DPRK a new roadmap for a final solution to its nuclear issue. The main idea can apply to that if the 5 powers help the DPRK join the global economic order, as a result it will be much easier to urge the DPRK's decision makers to dismantle their nuclear arsenal. In this hypothetical scenario, the DPRK would have something to lose.
It appears that in the future, the conditions and preconditions in the possible Six Party Talks will be changed. Today, the DPRK has a nuclear arsenal and multiple rocket launchers with range enough to strike not only the US's military bases in Japan and the ROK but also US territory. In further negotiations, the DPRK will change its preconditions because the DPRK has already constructed several light-water reactors, which they requested before. It also now appears that that the DPRK does not have particularly dangerous food shortages because China provides it with economic and food aid.
It is worth mentioning that possible nuclear war between the DPRK and the US/ROK will cause the deaths of millions of people, an economic crisis and irreversible environmental problems. The main task for the international community is to pressure the DPRK to take steps to destroy its nuclear arsenal. The balance of power will stabilize, and the nuclear arms race in the Far East will stop. Countries will begin to see the resolution of their security problems without nuclear weapons.
REFERENCES
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2. Cui T. Interview with Tepperman, Jonathan. Beijing's brand ambassador: A conversation with Cui Tiankai. Foreign Affair. 2013.
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М.Д. Саакян
ПОЛИТИКА КИТАЯ ПО ЯДЕРНОЙ ПРОБЛЕМЕ КНДР: СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО И РАЗНОГЛАСИЯ С США И РОССИЕЙ
Институт международных отношений, Нанкинский университет 210023, Сяньлинь дадао 163, Нанкин, пров. Цзянсу, КНР
В статье, посвященной политике Китая по ядерной проблеме КНДР, осуществлен анализ сотрудничества и разногласия Пекина с Вашингтоном и Москвой. В первой и во второй частях рассмотрены проблемы, связанные с развитием ядерной программы КНДР и позицией Китая. В третьей части проведено исследование, связанное с сотрудничеством и разногласиями Китая и США по ядерной проблеме КНДР. С точки зрения Китая, «если в регионе не будет никаких проблем, то в итоге влияние США будет минимизировано». Четвертая часть посвящена китайско-российскому сотрудничеству по ядерной проблеме КНДР. Приводятся следующие аргументы: Москва и Пекин оказывают давление на КНДР так, чтобы его политическая система не рухнула. Одна из важных причин Российско-китайского объединенного сопротивления ядерным испытаниям КНДР состоит еще и в том, что после ядерных испытаний КНДР - США увеличили военное присутствие на Дальнем Востоке. В заключение автор дает рекомендацию о возможном разрешении ядерной проблемы КНДР, которая создает угрозу международной безопасности.
Ключевые слова: политика Китая в СБ ООН, ядерная проблема КНДР, резолюции СБ ООН, распространение ядерного оружия, противоречия Китая с США в СБ ООН, сотрудничество Китая с Россией в СБ ООН.
Сведения об авторе: Мгер Давидович Саакян - Ph.D. (международные отношения) Институт международных отношений, Нанкинский университет, Китай, директор фонда «Совет политических и стратегических исследований «Китай-Евразия»» (E-mail: [email protected]).
СПИСОК ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ
1. Baklitskiy A. Interview by Author. Abramcevo, Russia. 2015. September 5.
2. Cui T. Interview with Tepperman, Jonathan. Beijing's brand ambassador: A conversation with Cui Tiankai // Foreign Affair. 2013.
3. DongX. China's dilemma on the Korean Peninsula // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 25 (2013): 243-255.
4. Fang X., Xin H. China-U.S. relations and the security of the Korean // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 25 (2013): 351-367.
5. Furukuwa K., and Izumi H. Japan's response to North Korea's nuclear and missile tests // North Korean nuclear operationality: Regional security and nonproliferation. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013: 104-124.
6. Garver W.J. Interview by Author. By E-mail. December 11, 2015.
7. Kortunov A. Interview by Author. Moscow, Russia. April 15, 2015.
8. McVadonE. Korean issue in U.S.-China relations 1990-2010 // The Korean Journal ofDefense Analysis. 22 (2010): 141-162.
9. Sagan S. Why do states build nuclear weapons: Three models in search of bomb? // International Security. 21 (1997): 54-86.
10. Sahakyan M. China's reforms to improve its peacekeeping capabilities: China's growing role in UNPKO (2000-2013) // Вестн. Моск. ун-та. Сер. 13. Востоковедение (2016): 56-67.
11. Shen D. Interview by Author. By E-mail. January 6, 2016.
12. Shi Y. China and the North Korean nuclear issue: Competing interests and persistent policy dilemma // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 21 (2009): 33-47.
13. Shi Y. New games in tightly fixed structures: North Korea's volatile desperation and China's cornered strategy // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 23 (2011): 353-368.
14. UNSC. Resolutions 1695 (2006), 1718 (2006), 1874 (2009), 1928 (2010), 1985 (2011), 2087 (2013), 2094 (2013), 2270 (2016).
15. Zheng J. The 'conflict-reconciliation' cycle on the Korean Peninsula: A Chinese // The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. 24 (2012): 123-139.
16. Wuthnow J. Interview by Author. December 16, 2015.
17. Толорая Г. Россия и проблемы Корейского полуострова на современном этапе // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. 37 (2014): 82-91.
18. Феодоров Ю. Корейский ядерный кризис и Россия // Ядерный контроль. 78 (2005): 41-61.
