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Kamaludin Gadjiev, political scientist WILL AZERBAIJAN BECOME SECOND KUWAIT?
Azerbaijan plays the key role in apportionment of forces in the South Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea. It not only possesses big hydrocarbon resources but also occupies an advantageous place in the transportation route of oil and gas shipment to the western direction from the territory of the Caspian Basin. Therefore after disintegration of the USSR Azerbaijan occupied the most advantageous position comparing with two other states in the South Caucasus.
In the middle of the 1990s, since the time of conclusion of the so-called "contracts of the century" new investments were made in the country, new jobs appeared not only in the oil sphere but also in a number of other branches of economy. The mere fact of coming to the country of western companies was significant not only in economic terms but also had the colossal moral-psychological importance, since it raised aspirations of people for rapid rebirth of economy, consolidation of new Azerbaijani statehood, achievement of social-political stability. One should also note the fact that the biggest world companies, having made big investments in development of hydrocarbon deposits, actually became the lobbyists of Azerbaijan's interests on the world arena. According to the existing information, since 2006 the amount of extracted oil in Azerbaijan reached the record - 30 million tons, and for the following period the amounts of oil production constantly augmented. Given high prices of oil in the world market, the rise of oil extraction resulted in rapid rise of incomes in the state budget.
It should be said that economic capacity of Azerbaijan by all means is not reduced only to the oil resources. The expertise estimates the potential reserves of gold in Azerbaijan by the size exceeding 1000
tons, which surpasses the known reserves of gold in Georgia and Armenia, taken together. The gold refining enterprise has been projected in the republic. The reorganization and modernization of industries, connected with energy, as well as of big oil-chemical complexes is going on with assistance rendered by the European Union. Great export potential of Azerbaijan is connected with agricultural-industrial capacity. In Azerbaijan, the complex of significant strategic reforms has been elaborated in the agricultural sector, which in the aggregate are summoned to extend its chances independently to meet its demands in food-staffs, to create conditions for development of grain market, of perfection of agricultural credits' system etc. The republic is able to succeed in achieving production of sufficient amount of grain, sugar and tea. Tourists may bring a rather big inflow of hard currency.
The boom in the construction sphere, marked before the crisis, shows improvement in the economic situation in the republic. The state demonstrated its readiness to provide financial support to construction of the railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars. Since 2003, 520 thousand jobs have been created in the country. But the authorities have not yet been able to solve the problem of unemployment and to liquidate poverty.
Azerbaijan aspires also for using its big transit capacity. The so-called Caucasian transport corridor, which in a great part is laid across the republic's territory, may transform Azerbaijan into one of regional centers of international trade and re-export. Evidently, the cooperation of western countries in the sphere of transport communications acquires a rising significance in this context.
The incomes received by transportation of the energy resources to world markets became the main source of economic growth. According to the data of the state custom-house, submitted to agency "Interfacs-Azerbaijan", in 2008 the foreign trade turnover of Azerbaijan
made the astronomic for this country amount of $ 54 billion 919 million 697.3 thousand with positive balance of $ 40 billion, which surpasses many times the index for 2007. The export made $ 47 billion 756 million 229.4 thousand (rise in 7.8 times), the import accounted for $ 7 billion 163 million 467,9 thousand. The structure of export was as follows: 92.49% - crude oil, 4.3% - fuel oil, 0.48% - ferrous metals and products, 0.45% - vegetables, 0.26% - vegetable and fat oils and others. In 2008, the export was distributed as follows: Italy - 42.25% of the whole amount of export, the USA - 12.59%, Israel - 7.55%, India -5.09%, France - 4.86%; the import of Azerbaijan was apportioned in the following way: Russia - 18.83%, Turkey - 11.27%, Germany -8.36%, Ukraine - 7.92%, PRC - 6.68% and Great Britain - 5.39%. As it is seen from this data, the lion's part of the export consists of crude oil.
The country gets more than 75% of state incomes from oil, and 20% - at the expense of trade, customs and other trade taxes, while only 5% are received from agriculture and industry. The oil factor determines the main vectors of internal and foreign policy of Azerbaijan. One should not ignore the fact that exactly the so-called oil diplomacy promoted the interest of the world community to Azerbaijan. In this respect, both foreign and internal policy of Azerbaijan are liable to the conjuncture deviations of prices for this raw material in world markets and to the course of negotiations on the choice of routes for shipment of hydrocarbon resources and the corresponding financial support.
Given all these marked achievements, it turned out to be impossible to make Azerbaijan become second Kuwait, as G.Aliyev often said. As soon as it became evident that prognoses of fantastic amounts of discovered and not discovered deposits of hydrocarbons do not correspond totally to the actual situation, the original euphoria
disappeared. As vice-president of company "Shell" G.Greham said, this region was not "a new Persian Gulf', but Caspian oil fields are quite comparable with the reserves of the Northern Sea. These reserves are significant and actually may be used for efficient economic development of Azerbaijan.
The social and economic situation in Azerbaijan is aggravated by corruption and arbitrary rule of state officials. To the view of many observers, corruption covered all law enforcement bodies and threatens national security. The actual merging of power and property is one of the factors, which have negative impact on the social-economic situation. Former president's G. Aliyev son- I. Aliyev, as the first vice-president of the state oil company of Azerbaijan, kept under his control oil industry of the republic. Journalist I. Guseinova remarked in this respect: "It is common knowledge in Azerbaijan and abroad that the Aliyevs family possesses oil and the whole related business. Just due to this fact the president 10 years ago nominated his only son to the post of vice-president of the State Oil Company of the RA (GNKAR). For the last two years, exactly therefore Geydar Aliyev exerted all his forces to lead his son to power after himself". In the same spirit the opposition newspaper "Eni Musavat", citing some sources, noted: "The property and the real estate, which belonged to Geydar Aliyev, are estimated in $ 24 billion, which belonged to his son Ilham - $ 11 billion, his daughter Sevil - $ 13 billion". As Russian magazine "Expert" remarked, today it is impossible to distinguish the Aliyevs' private property from the state property".
However, not only oil gives profit to this family. As marked "Monitor-weekly" and newspaper "Novoe Vremya", the whole oil business is owned by people of this clan. G. Aliyev's brother Jalal is considered as the richest person in Azerbaijan. However, even the opposition press does not evaluate his riches. He made convicted
several newspapers for reports on his villas in Great Britain and Turkey, on filling fuel stations, expensive houses, on a fashionable hotel in Azerbaijan etc. Commenting these facts, they joke or seriously speak about emergence in the world market of new oil giant, titled conditionally "Aliyev and Sons". In November 1998, some opposition newspapers published lists of state officials and G. Aliyev's close relatives, who possess big real estate in 25 countries of the world for the sum of $ 700 million. The conditions are created often for businessmen, when success of business depends on personal relations with the presidential and other power structures. Favoritism, nepotism, close relationship, distribution of various benefits and, consequently, embezzlement of national property became inseparable attributes of social and economic life of the country.
All this makes us agree with one of the observers, who compared the republic with "a beggar sitting on the throne". Actually, scanty pensions and wages of many Azerbaijanis, emigration and departure to Russia in search of a living seem to be absurd near the brimming over "oil fountain".
The analysis of the existing situation does not provide us with arguments for a definite positive or negative appraisal of both the essence and the character of the present regime in Azerbaijan, as well as of its conformity with some or other models of the state-political system. A brief analysis of the situation in Azerbaijan should be made in order to comprehend correctly this problem. The proclamation of the contemporary independent Azerbaijan was accompanied with the known tragic events, which could not help leaving their deep imprint in the main directions and characteristic of transformation processes in all national spheres of public and political life. For that period, the processes, going on in Karabakh and the adjacent sphere, had a great impact on tempos and characteristic of the developing national
movement in Azerbaijan, which finally resulted in proclamation of independence. These processes and their results, as well as the troubles of political struggle in Azerbaijan in the end of the 1980s -the beginning of the 1990s have been widely discussed in the national scientific literature. In this context, it is sufficient to mention that the first president - A. Elchibey and his team came to power under the slogans of Panturkism and establishment of closest inter-state relations with Turkey, consolidation of independence of Azerbaijan and the position of all conceivable great distance from Russia, solving Karabakh problem for the benefit of Azerbaijan by September 1992 and others.
After G. Aliyev coming to power, the political course of Azerbaijan, including foreign policy, became liable to certain changes. Azerbaijan joined the CIS, the one-sided Turkish orientation was corrected and some steps were taken to restore certain ties with Russia and to diversify international relations of the country. Gradually, the forces, which promoted disassembly of all ties, connecting Azerbaijan with Russia, having accomplished their task, rather quickly either left definitely the political arena or stepped aside, having liberated the place for G. Aliyev and his team. But one should give them the credit for preparing conditions to transform Azerbaijan into de facto and de jure an independent state.
The present authorities of Azerbaijan not without reason consider as their greatest service ensuring public-political independence. Although the opposition tries to question successes of the existing regime, the present authorities actually succeeded to stabilize social and political situation in the country. The main part of the citizens, irrespective of their political orientation, size of property etc., associate these real and fictitious successes with personality of late president G. Aliyev and of the present state power. Leaving aside the ways and
means used for achievement of these successes, it is needed to admit that as a whole G. Aliyev succeeded to pacify the ethnic-national movement of Talush and Lezgin peoples and to avoid division of the country, balancing on the brink of war, to secure a truce (very shaky, though) with Armenia, to liquidate all attempts (real and imaginary) of forceful pressure against the powers on the part of some or other political groups. With determination he removed the military opposition from political arena.
In this respect, one should give G. Aliyev first of all the credit of consolidation of unorganized and super-politicized law enforcement bodies, however, fixing them completely as a service for the benefit of his regime. By the time of his coming to power, the national demoralized army, actually defeated in Karabakh war, was unable to perform its main functions for protection of the state against internal and external threats. Given a deficit of needed financial means and resources, G. Aliyev concentrated the efforts in forming and strengthening armed national forces, which make now 56 thousand regular servicemen and 7 thousand body guards. The rise of oil incomes contributed to the growth of defense expenses, primarily for strengthening armed forces. According to the existing data, for the last five years the military expenses of Azerbaijan increased more than ten times, and the defense budget surpassed $ 2 billion in 2008. However, Azerbaijan does not have its own military-industrial infrastructure, capable to provide its army with the needed arms and explosives. Not counting two air force repair centers and two enterprises, producing parts to radio-electronic and rocket technique, the military industry actually does not exist in Azerbaijan.
At present, the president of the country concentrates all real power in his hands. He is the unique significant personality in the system of state governance in charge of taking decisions on all
important issues. The regime is characterized by clan, paternalist clientpatron features. Since 1993 the representatives of "Nakhichevan" clan of Aliyev have occupied the leading position in the power structures after expulsion of A. Elchibey and his team, of the so-called "Baku", "Gyandzha" and "Karabakh" clans. Therefore it is not a surprise that the division of powers and other democratic principles and norms, proclaimed in the constitution of the country, in many respects remain pure declarations. Milli Majilis, the government and other organs of governance are kept under complete control of the president and have not entrenched as independent organs, which adequately represent interests of the country's population. The same may be said about the judicial power.
However, the analysis of the main points of the Alieyevs regime's characteristics allows making the conclusion, that by the present time a peculiar system of the inherited authoritarian power with elements of eastern type has consolidated in Azerbaijan. In August 2003, G. Aliyev, probably seeing his ailing condition, nominated his son I. Aliyev to the post of chairman of the government with the perspective to become a candidate to the post of the president at the elections in October of the same year; evidently I. Aliyev easily got the upper hand at the elections. On 15 October 2008, he was re-elected to this post, getting 88.73% of votes. None of his rivals could overcome the barrier of 3%. In December 2008, Milli Majilis of Azerbaijan voted for abrogation of the article in the constitution, which limited the period of presidential office by one person to only two terms in succession. Evidently, the Constitutional Court of Azerbaijan expressed the positive opinion on the act for referendum concerning this issue. Commenting this decision, director of the Institute for Peace and Democracy Leila Yunus said in her interview to BBC: "It would be more correct to fix the lifelong term in office for Ilham Aliyev or for the Aliyevs family,
since we lack elections and imitation of democratic elections exists by us".
"Kavkazski uzel v geopoliticheskih prioritetah Rossii",
M, 2010, p. 153-181.
M. Akulova,
cand. of sciences (philosophy) THE WORLD DEMOCRACY AND TAJIKISTAN
The world democracy exists as conflictive integrity consisting of many parts. These are the countries of the world democracy in America, Europe, so-called sovereign democracy of the Russian Federation, the different alliances of some countries in Europe, the new states of EU and NATO and so on. At the same time the world democracy under reservations also includes the CIS countries, the countries of Central Asia being officially voted democratic though sometimes the politicians, for example, of USA and the other countries name the countries of Central Asia as authoritarian regimes or even dictatorships in their analytical notes. Often many countries name them as hydrides being the democratic moments and authoritarianism and also half-authoritarian regimes in the analytical literature. Having the first romantic hopes for near democratization the political elite of the world democracy was enthusiastic: coming mass transfer to democracy seemed to be inevitable. M. Lipman writes that "it concerns not only a communist block. Beginning from the last quarter of XX century a political regime relaxation affected in varying degree about thousands countries. It began from the right-wing dictatorship fall in Spain, Portugal and Greece and then in Latin American countries the elective civil power changed the army juntas; in the middle of 80-ss
