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Moslem civilization - caused those problems the regional leadership faces with when realizing its confessional policy.
Tatarstan is the point of several approach impact and interaction: the Western, liberal, All-Russian, national, the Tatar, ethno-national and Islamic and international.
"Vlast", M, 2010, N 9, p.113-115
A. Krylov,
publicist
AZERBAIJAN ON THE WAY OF POST-SOVIET DEVELOPMENT
After disintegration of the USSR Azerbaijan, possessing big natural resources, found itself in the adjacent region in the most advantageous position. Its main source of income became the export of energy carriers to the world markets, and up to the present time the economic growth of the country is based on the extensive use of energy resources.
Owing to its geographic location and the oil and gas reserves Azerbaijan was and remains for the USA a country of greatest priority in the post-Soviet space. The USA rendered Azerbaijan great assistance in the field of military and navy construction, actively promoted intensification of relations between Azerbaijan and NATO.
The USA and EU proclaimed as their most important ask overcoming an excessive, from their point of view, dependence of Europe on Russian energy carriers. The construction of a new pipeline system was started via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and further to Europe. The oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum were constructed. The Administration of
B. Obama continued the course of the previous Administration aimed at construction of "Southern energy corridor" round Russia and Iran.
The leadership of Azerbaijan demonstrated its interest in joint development with the USA and EU in the sphere of energy. It declared repeatedly that cooperation of Azerbaijan with NATO is characterized by strategic aims and that the country made its choice for the benefit of "genuine democracy" and "Euro-Atlantic values". But this choice did not mean that Baku renounced its own sovereignty and would blindly follow the direction of American policy.
President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly said that the contemporary relations between Russia and Azerbaijan might be an example of mutual actions between two neighboring states. On the basis of the present mutual understanding at the high level and the coincidence of positions on many problems of global policy, according to I. Aliyev, the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan attained the level of strategic partnership. Moscow as well does not spare compliments addressing official Baku. The representatives of the ministry of foreign affairs of Russia not once also declared that the Russian-Azerbaijani relations attained the level of strategic partnership.
The Russian authorities keep away from internal political events in Azerbaijan. The Kremlin prefers to abstain from public declarations concerning approval or disapproval relating to activities of different political forces in Azerbaijan. But its sympathy is quite evident.
The present representatives of the opposition are regarded as followers of the adventurous and anti-Russian course of A. Elchibey and therefore may not be supported in Moscow. In time of the Aliyevs father and son, the situation in Azerbaijan became again stable, and the economic relations between Russia and Azerbaijan were restored and further developed. And this circumstance for the Russian leadership is much more significant than the authoritative regime and violation of
human rights and similar "shortcomings" of the present ruling regime in Azerbaijan.
The similar "restrained-contemplative" position relating to current events in Azerbaijan is occupied by the USA, EU and actually by all states personifying present western democracy. In spite of permanent critic remarks addressed to Baku from western capitals, in Azerbaijan there were no massive interference in internal affairs and no actual support given to the opposition, in contrast to the previous events in a number of post-Soviet states. And it is evident: the own national interests in international relations are much more important than the interests of "promotion of democracy" in other countries.
The USA regards Azerbaijan as an adequate strong point to extend political and military presence in the Caspian-Black Sea region, as a transit country for export of energy carriers from the Central Asia and as a significant exporter of energy carriers. For the European Union is important not so much the military-political component as the role of Azerbaijan as a transit country and an exporter of energy carriers to Europe.
Russia appreciates Azerbaijan as a valuable trade partner and as a significant part of new transport corridors North-South, which connect it with Iran and the countries of the South Asia. Moscow does not regard that the extension of military-political presence of the USA will consolidate stability in the Caspian-Black sea region. Drawing Azerbaijan into a military operation against Iran contradicts the interests of Russian national security, since it creates a threat to destabilize the situation on the southern borders of Russia.
Evidently, transformation of Azerbaijan into a transit country for export of the Central Asian energy resources to the world markets contradicts the interests of Russian energy monopolies and would result in weakening positions of the RF in the CA region and in the South
Caucasus. The Russian leadership succeeded to neutralize this threat by the developed mutually beneficial cooperation in the sphere of energy with the CA countries (transit to external markets by existing pipelines, purchases of oil and gas etc.). In 2009 Russia started to buy gas also in Azerbaijan. Up till that time, Georgia and Turkey were the main exporters of gas from Azerbaijan.
The Azerbaijan's exports make up annually 6.3 billion cubic meters of gas shipped to Turkey from "Shah Deniz" deposit, according to the contract for 16 years. These deliveries started in 2006. Under the contract, since 15 April 2008 Azerbaijan had the right to raise the price, which was three times lower than in Europe. But the Turkish company "Botas" refused to do it, although it purchased fuel from "Gasprom" at the price, which was three times higher than the price of gas in Azerbaijan. The contradictions in the sphere of energy were aggravated after establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia, and this event caused the unprecedented cooling of relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The ministry of foreign relations of Azerbaijan declared that signing of the protocol contradicts the national interests of Azerbaijan and cast aspersions on the brotherly relation between Azerbaijan and Turkey, which have deep historic roots.
Passions became heated, when in the course of the football play between Armenian and Turkish teams in Bursa on 14 October 2009 it was forbidden to use Azerbaijani flags, and officers of the Turkish police tore to pieces an Azerbaijani flag and threw it into a refuse bin, according to mass media. The mass media in Azerbaijan were enraged with reports on "warm embraces" of the presidents of Armenia and Turkey and on the fact that the Turkish president's wife allegedly herself prepared dinner for Armenian president, who spent a night in the bedroom of the Turkish president.
The mentioned information provoked the anti-Turkish feelings in Azerbaijan. The emotional debates on the incident with the Azerbaijani flag were arranged in the parliament. The crisis in the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey and the unclear perspectives of export of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe forced Baku to look for alternative export markets. On 16 October 2009, I. Aliyev declared that Azerbaijan would consider alternative variants of gas export since the Turkish-Azerbaijani negotiations on transit of blue fuel failed. He accused Turkey of making obstacles for achievement of agreements, proposing unacceptably low prices for Azerbaijani gas.
The transit capacity of the gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan with Russia makes 7 billion cubic meters per year. Azerbaijan has a chance to sell two thirds of produced gas to Russia. The leadership of Azerbaijan declared about its readiness to sell Russia as much gas as it needs.
Iran may become another important customer of Azerbaijani gas. After disintegration of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Iran came to the agreement on gas deliveries on the basis of reciprocity. Gas is delivered from Azerbaijan to the Iranian provinces contiguous with the state borders, while Iran ships the same quantity of gas to the isolated from the rest territory of Azerbaijan - to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (NAR).
It is probable that the gas of Azerbaijan will become a significant component of the project "Peace Pipeline", which is subject to discussion and would be laid from Iran to Pakistan and India. This project is summoned to play a great role in consolidation of stability in the region and in its economic development, the participants of the project stress. In the opinion of some Azerbaijani experts, "the simpler and cheaper option" for the country would be an agreement on export
of the gas from Azerbaijan to Asia than the expectation of implementation of "ephemeral Nabucco" project.
The western partners reacted in a negative way to the change of Azerbaijan's energy policy. In January 2010, the special representative of the State Secretary of the USA for energy affairs R. Morningstar visited Azerbaijan. Following his return to Washington, he expressed his disillusionment with the lack of agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey on gas deliveries. He also excluded any chance for participation of Iran in "South Corridor" and said that that this project might turn out to be lacking vital capacity, if there would be not concluded a feasible from the commercial point of view and mutually beneficial agreement on the terms of gas shipment.
The vice-chairman of the sub-committee for human rights of the European parliament and representative of the Conservative party of Grate Britain for foreign policy Ch. Tannok warned Azerbaijan about probable negative for it consequences. To his mind, in case of difficulties through Azerbaijan's fault relating to implementation of "Nabucco" project, it might put an additional obstacle for Azerbaijan in its intension to join the European-Atlantic economic and security structures. Simultaneously, the western countries exert their pressure on Turkey with the aim of taking decision to settle the issue of transit of Azerbaijani gas via Turkey.
The existence of the gas pipelines, constructed in Soviet times, promotes development of energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and neighboring countries - Russia and Iran. The gas pipeline Gazi-Magomed-Astara-Bind-Biand with annual gas capacity of 10 billion cubic meters connects Azerbaijan and Iran.
The position of Azerbaijan in the course of its negotiations with Turkey was reinforced thanks to the rapid diversification of gas deliveries. Having signed the contract on deliveries of Azerbaijani gas
to Russia, I. Aliyev declared that Azerbaijan would not agree to the Turkish proposals on gas prices and transport tariffs for transit. He accused Turkey of taking actions which impede export of Azerbaijani fuel to Europe.
It is evident that should Turkey go on to drag out the conclusion of the agreement about the acceptable for Azerbaijan gas prices and tariff cost, the energy cooperation between two countries may be reduced to a minimum scale. However, this perspective would hardly become a reality: it is not to Baku advantage to be excessively dependent on one of his customers - Turkey, Iran or Russia and it would be too dangerous to strain relations with the USA and EU.
The policy carried out by Baku is aimed primarily at development of energy sector and therefore makes it possible to get political and financial advantages, but it has become the reason of inadequate diversification of economy and its dependence on the situation in the world energy market. At the same time, the Azerbaijani energy resources are limited, and it is possible to predict with good reason that the amount of raw resources extraction will be reduced in the nearest future. For the time being, the elite of Azerbaijan is not concerned a lot about dependence on "oil needle" and lacks adequate stimuli for political and economic modernization. The situation in the country is marked by existence of the authoritarian model of the governed or imitated democracy. The ruling regime keeps under its complete control political life in the country and is able to ensure the needed election results even irrespective of actual votes cast by the people. According to the official data, 88,73% of voters supported President I. Aliyev at the elections in October 2008.
On the initiative of the ruling party "Eni Azerbaijan" ("New Azerbaijan"), the constitutional referendum took place in the country in March 2009. According to official data, over 90% of the participants
approved the proposed amendments in the constitution, including abrogation of the limit concerning election of the same person more than twice. It means that I. Aliyev may remain in power after expiration of his second presidential term in 2013.
The changes of the political system actually have transformed the country into the inherited monarchy, to the minds of the leaders of opposition movements. The opposition having called up to boycott the referendum refused to recognize as valid its official results. However, the actions, taken by the opposition, had no impact on the course of referendum and its results, they were not received any international support. The mission of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) noted that the referendum demonstrated readiness of the Azerbaijani people to extend elements of stability and democratization. The head of the mission, a Belgian deputy stressed that the referendum had passed in a quiet situation and was marked by a high activity of electors.
The mission of observers of the CIS also recognized the referendum to be free and open, corresponding to the norms of the existing state legislation and common methods of preparing the national voting of all people. And what is more, the mission ascertained that the referendum was a significant factor for further democratization of public life in Azerbaijan, consolidated the foundation of sovereignty and became the reflection of stable and prospective social-economic development of the state.
The recognition by the countries of the West of legitimacy of the inherited power by its passage from the father to the son and later the agreement for the unlimited term of I. Aliyev governance resulted in the crisis of the political forces, oriented to the western model of democracy. The split pro-western opposition, deprived of foreign
support, actually has no chances to change the regime by achievement of success at the presidential elections.
It is quite probable that president of Azerbaijan I. Aliyev (or at least the Aliyevs clan) will hold power for a long time. The lack of perspectives to change the ruling regime by the constitutional way under conditions of the social-economic systemic backwardness and of a great gap in levels of income between the elite and the rest of the population result in the growth of social tension. It creates favorable conditions for activities of the extremist forces, which urge towards usage of Islam for political aims and towards seizure of power with its assistance in Azerbaijan.
"Vneshnie svyazi stran Prikaspiya v usloviyakh globalnogo krizisa i interesy Rossii", M., 2010, p.103-108.
R. Bekkin,
orientalist
THE ISLAMIC FINANCIAL MODEL
IMPLEMENTING IN KYRGYZSTAN
In April 2006 the counselor to the then President K. Bakiev and the Manager in the Islamic development bank from the Kyrgyz Republic Sh. M. Murtazaliev had serious words with the author of these lines about short-range plans on Islamization of the total sector of Kyrgyzstan. Such declaration couldn't but set wondering. In spite of the fact that 84% of the Kyrgyz population are the Moslems the Islam influence in the republic isn't so much as, for the example, in the neighboring Uzbekistan or Tajikistan. The fact that the most part of the Kyrgyz population don't employ bank services is evidence of not so much ethnically-oriented economic behavior of the country citizens as a poor financial culture of the society as a whole. For the most part of the
