ВЛИЯНИЕ НАЛОГОВО-БЮДЖЕТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ НА НЕРАВЕНСТВО ДОХОДОВ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ АРМЕНИЯ

Авагян Гаяне; Торосян Алик

UU4PnSLSbUU^hSn^3nM.

q-цЗцъЬ ц^ЦЯ-ЗЦЪ

C^ISC tímLpntLnbnJ^Lmj^ mtpfrnbfr q.ngbbs, LptiLpbuLuqfiLpnLpjLuti pbL¡tiuiónL

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3395-2473

ULh^ га-ПРПиЗЦЪ

C^ISC «Um^pn^b^bum^mb i[bp[nLÓnLpjnLb» LjpfchiuLjiuti ôpuiqpfi JiLiqfiULppLutiLp

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5416-7565

<UPЦUPЗn^ЙЬSUЗhL

^иаи^ичиъпь^Зиъ

иа^ЬвПЬ^ЗПЬЪй PLUMQnhfô^UL ьцu^n^sLЬPh иъси^ииирпь^Зиъ

4PU CUBUUSULh CULPUmsnhra^nKLnhtf

b^mtnL^bbp^ mbhuiluiuuipnLpjnLbß pbnLpmqpm^mb t pn[np sb^bum^mb hm-tJmLmpqbp^b: b^mtnL^bbp^ [bpmpm2fritJmb 2nLL|ШJшL|шb tJbfrimbftqtJp b bnybftuL }pmbg Lbbyipnbmglmó Lmpqm[npnLtp jbb ^mpnq [bpmgbb[ mj} mbhm[mumpnLpjnL-bp, npn[hbyib b^mtnL^bbp^ hm[mump pm2frinLtJp n¿ tJftmjb ung^m^mb mprmpnL-pjшЬ rf hmbqbgbnLtt, шлЬ pnLmgbnLtJ t fripmbbbpb nL pmpâp mpyim}-

pnqmLmbnLpjnLb m^mhn[b[nL 2mhmqpqn[mónLpjnLbp: Tbn m[b¡pb' pbrnLbm^nLpjnLb-bbpft ipmppbpnLpjnLbbbpp, LppnLpjnLbb nL nLunLgnLttp, tlmubmq^smLmb 6ш2ш^р b nftuLp, ubфшL|шbnLpJшb iphpmu/byinLtJp hmumpm^nLpjmb b^mtnL^bbp^ umpnLpjmb mnmpmgtJmb Ш^шЬ qnpónbbbp bb: Cn}[mónLt Lmyimplbi t [bpinLÓnL-pjnLb' u/mpqb[nL hmtmp b^mtnL^bbp^ mbhm[mumpnLpjmb hmqpmhmptmb nLqqnL-pjmtp hmpLmpjnL£bsmj^b fmqmfmLmbnLpjmb mq}bgnLpjnLbp: Ujг ЬШ1

tIbLbшpшblb[ bb Lpшppbp Lpbsbuшqbsbbpfr 1]пцфд шщ. ¡d-b^jnil Lшsшplшó hb-lpшqnsnLpJnLbbbpß, ШJbnLhbsb nLunLLfbшuftpфl bb «-nLt!bLшtnLsbbp^ шbhшllшuш-pnL¡^b ш^ш фбшф, hшpLшpJnL£bsшJ^b fшqшfшLшbnLpJшb фnфn^nLp|nLbbbpß ijbpçftb lpшubшtJ|шLLfl ßb^gpnLt: U2шLLфl t tlnq.b[ hшpLшp|nL£bsш|^b fшqшfшLш-bnL¡^b шqq.bgnLp|nLbß bLшtnLsbbp^ шbhшllшuшpnLp|шb фш qbшhшsblnL hшtшp, LLшbfrlшsbuфl bb hшpLLшp|nL£bsшфb fшqшfшLшbnLp|шb шпшЬ0^Ь qnpófipbbpfi шu|шqш 2шpàßbp■шgß, r).pшbg шqq.bgnLp|nLbß bLшtnLsbbp^ шbhшllшuшpnLp|шb фш hш£npty hftbq lpшpftbbpft ßb^gpnLt:

JEL: P46, Q23

DOI: 1Q.52174/1829-Q28Q_2Q22.2-9

ЪЬршдш^шЬ: <шdш2^шphшJ^ mhmbump^h шpшq qшpqшgJшhQ U bp|phbp^ hшdш2^шphшJ^h mhmhump^hh f^hmbqpJшh р^^^Ыш^р qnL-qшhbn, bp|phbp^ J^gU JböшhnLJ t JpдшLдnLpjnLhQ: ^дш^дт^т^р шш-pшö4nLJ t hty^bu Jmuhm^np hшm4шönLJ qnpônLhbnLpjnLÙ QÙ|b-

pnLpjnLÙhbp^, ш^^и t[ bp|phbp^ L|шпш^шpnLpjnLbbbp^ J^gU: 4bpg^hhbpu J^J^hg hbs JpgnLJ bh mhmbunLp^h qшpqшдJшh шит^бш^п^, hшJш2-J^JшphшJ^ rnhrnbunLpjnLhnLJ т^дшб Jшuhшpшd^ ^шфп^, |ш-

nш4шpJшh шprç.JпLhш4bmпLpjшJp U шд mbuшhLJnLhhbpn4: Uju^u^ JpдшL-дш^шЬ hшJшцшmLbpпLJ щЬШШ^ШЬ LnnJhg ^p^nrç. т^тЬиш|ш^ рш^ш-mh^ LшpUпp Ujrç. шnпLJп4 2шт LшpUпp t 4b-

тш^шЬ Ln^Jhg hшpLшpJnL2bmшJ^ U rç.pшJш4шpLшJ^ fшт.шр pjnL^^bp^ шp^.JnL^ш4bm U Ьщштш|шттд4ш& hpшLшhшдnLJQ: <ш]шитш^ hnyh^bu qbpô ^t hшJш2^шphшJ^ rnhrnbunLpjnLhnLJ р^ршдпт. Ыш^шт^щ bpUnyphbp^g: Qhm^ô hшpLшpJnL2bmшJ^ f шqrç.nLJ t

uihrnbump^h J^ 2шpf hшm4шöhbp^ фш' hnrç^ônLJ t T-p^L q^-

[лшт^т <<-mJ Чшnш4шpnLpJш^ LnnJhg hpшLшhшд4шö hшpLшpJnL2bmш-j^h fштшfшLш^nLpJш^ шq^bдnLpJnL^Q bLшJnLmhbp^ шhhш4шuшpnLpjшh фш: bLшJnLm^bp^ шhhш4шuшpnLpjшh ^hrç^pQ J2mшщbu brçb t mhmbuш-q^rnrnp^h U hшишpшLшLшh JjnLU q^rnnLpjnLÙhbp^ nL2шrç.pnLpjшh |bhrnpn-hmJ: ЪbpLшJnLJи t[ ш^Ь t JböшдbL п^ш LшpUnpnLpJnL^Q U шprç.^шLшhnL-pjnL^Q, np ^bpgh^ hшpJnLpшJJшLh QÙ^gfmJ up^bL t bLшJnLmhbp^

ш^hш4шuшp pш2^4шönLpJш^ ^hrç^pQ ш2^шph^ qpbpb pnLnp bpLphbpmJ: hu| ^bpgh^ шJpnт.2 ш2^шphnLJ pn^L^ô LnpnhшфpnLuШJ^h

hшJш4шpшL^ ш4bLh t upbL ш]и ^h^phbpQ1 hpшmшц ^шpÖ^bLn4 LnLÖJш^ nLTh^bph pшдшhшJmJш^ U huJu^urnuu^ul fШJLbp^ ^pшLш^шд-Jш^ ш^hpшdb2mnLpJnL^Q: Ü.^Lш^шдnLJ^д ^ ^bp bLшJnLm^bp^ ш^hш4шuш-pnLpJШ^ U штрштт^ш^ ^^^^p^bpQ J2mшцbu b^ brçbL ^шЦ «-

nLJ, LnpnhшфpnLuШJ^ hшJш4шpшLQ U шpдш^ш-ш^ppb2ш^шLш^ цш-mbpшqJh tL ш4bLh pшp^шдp^^ шп|ш

Ч-pш^шbnLpJшb ш^Ьшр^: bLшJnLmbbp^ шbhш^шuшpnLpJnLbQ hшuшpшLшJ-

U"UL,nnS"bSbUUq-hSn^3nKb 11

mhQh^.hmm qmqmhbn, hmumpm^nLpjmh nL2m^.pnLpjmh JbSmg-

Jmh hmJm^mm^bpnLJ 2ws hmjmhh fm^mfm^mh qnp&h^hbp U hmJm2^mp-hmjhh mnmghnp^hbp ^mpUnpmJ bh b^mJmmhbph mhhm[mumpnLpjmh ^.bJ iqmjfmpQ1 np^bu hmJm2^mphmjhh fm^mfm^mhnLpjmh mnmghmjhh U h2m-hm^m[h ^h^hphbphg Jb^Q: 4bp2h^ rnmphhbphh t[ m[b|h t up[b[ b^mJmm-hbph mhhm^mumpnLpjmh hpm[h^m^Q m2^mphnLJ' ^npnhm[hpnL-

umjhh hmJm[mpm^h U m2^mphh qpbpb pn|np bp^phbph ^n^Jhg hpm^mhmg-[n^ umhJmhm^m^nLJhbph hbm1:

b^mJmmhbph mhhm[mumpnLpjmh [bpmgJmhh nL^[m& ^bmm^mh fm-^mfm^mhnLpjnLhhbph Jb£ hp ^mpUnp ^.bph nLhh hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhh fm^m-fm^mhnLpjnLhQ: Shmbumqhmm^mh 2p2mhm^hbpmJ l^mh Jh 2mpf [bp|nL&nL-pjrnhhbp mju pbJmjh [bpmpbpjmi; Hpmhg Jh Jwuq ^bp[nL6b[ t hmp^mpjnLgb-mmjhh fm^mfm^mhnLpjmh mJpn^m^mh mq^bgnLpjnLhQ b^mJmmhbph mh-hm[mumpnLpjmh [pm, hu^ JjnLuhbph nLunLJhmuhpb bh hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhh fm^mfm^mhnLpjmh mnmhdhh qnp&hfhbph mq^bgnLpjnLhQ b^mJmmhbph mh-hm[mumpnLpjmh [pm:

<mp^mpjnL2bmmjhh fm^mfm^mhnLpjmh mJpn^m^mh [bp|nL&nLpjnLh bh hbp^mjmgpb[ mhmbumqbmhbp Umpmhhbu-4mu^buQ, Phm^m Unpbhn-Hn^.-unhQ U 4hn[brnm 4nL|n[h^Q2: 'bpmhg ^mrnmpmS [bp|nL&nLpjmh Jb£ hbp^mjmg-[b[ t Jn^b[, npmb^ ^n^n^m^mh t Qhmp[b[ Shhhh qnp&m^hgQ, hu^

mh^m^ ^n^n^m^mhhbp bh hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhh ^n^n^m^mhhbph

U mhmbunLpjnLhQ phmpmqpn^ [b^mnphbpQ: <mp^mpjnL2bmmjhh ^n^n^m-^mhhbph [b^rnnpQ hbpmnmJ t b^mJmmjhh hmp^Q, 2mhmpmhmp^Q, unghm-[m^mh m^mhn[mqpnLpjmh [6mphbpQ, mhnL^m^h hmp^bpQ, Jmfummmpfb-pQ, ^brnm^mh pjnLgbhg mmppbp n|npmhbpmJ ^mmmp[m& Sm^ubpQ: Shrnb-unLpjnLhq phmpmqpn^ ^n^n^m^mhhbph [b^mnph Jb£ JmhnLJ bh phm^m-pjmh m6h mbJ^Q, phm^nLpjmh mmphfmjhh ^mnnLg[m&fQ, q|npmLmgJmh Jm^mp^m^Q, Jb^ 2h^hh pmdhh Qh^hn^ <LU-h, qnp&mqp^nLpjmh, ^nnnL^-ghmjh U ^ppmpjmh Jm^mp^m^hbpQ: LJmhmmh^ [bp|nL&nLpjnLh bh ^mrnmpb[ hmU mhmbumqbmhbp Sbjgrnh 4rnh, t[[.m Pn[mh, Shn-hmhb ^hh^mh, Un$hm 2mhqQ3: Um^mjh, h rnmppbpnLpjnLh hm^np^ [bp|nL&nLpjmh Jn^b[h, hpmhg Jn^b[nLJ hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhh ^n^n^m^mhhbph [b^mnph ^n^mpbh oqmm-qnp6[b[ t $hu^m[ ^nhun[h^mgnLJQ h^mpmqpn^ ^n^n^m^mhhbph [b^mnpQ: Tm hbpmnmJ t ^bmm^mh Sm^ubph U hmp^mjhh b^mJnLmhbph qnLJmph hmpmpbpm^gnLpjnLhQ <LU-hh, nL^^m^h U mhnL^^m^h hmp^bph hmpmpb-pm^gnLpjnLhQ, nL^^m^h U mhnL^^m^h hmp^bphg ummg[m6 b^mJnLmhbph hmpmpbpm^gnLpjnLhQ <LU-hh, ^bmm^mh pjnLgbhg mpmJm^p[n^ m2^mmm-[mpSbph, unghm[m^mh h^mumhbph, unLpuh^hmhbph U ^m^hmmL Sm^ubph hmpmpbpm^gnLpjnLhQ <LU-hh: Shmbumqbmhbp ^nLhm2hhqQ U Qmh^h^mh

1 Sb'u Gbohoui W., Lam W. R., Lledo V. D., The great divide: Regional inequality and fiscal policy, International Monetary Fund, 2019:

2 Sb'u Martinez-Vazquez J., Moreno-Dodson B., Vulovic V., The impact of Tax and expenditure policies on Income distribution: Evidence from a large panel of countries, International Center for Public Policy, April, 2012:

3 Sb'u Woo J., Bova E., Kinda T., Zhang Y.S., Distribution consequences of fiscal consolidation and the role of fiscal policy: What do the data say? IMF Working Paper, September, 2013:

[bp|_nLÖnLpjnlU bU hm2[wp^b|nL hmJmp mUmbum^mU m6h U

hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhU f m^mf m^mUmpjmU qnpöhfUbph mq^.bgnLpjnLUQ b^m-JmmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm4: hpbUg [bp|nLÖnLpjmU Jbg UpmUf oqmm-qnpöb[ bU S<2M mU^mJ JhghU pmpöp b^mJmm mUbgn^ bp^pUbph [h^m^m-qpmpjnLUQ: <mp^mpjnL2bmmjhU fm^wfm^mUmpjmU qnpöhfUbpp pmdmU[b[ bU bp^nL ^iJph nL^^m^h U mUnL^w^h, hm2[wp^[b[ t T-pmUg mq^.bgnLpjnLUQ b^mJmmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm: Mmmmp[wö [bp|nLÖnLpjmU mp^jmU-fnLJ bqpmhmUq[b[ t, np mq^m^h hmp^bph m[b|wgnLJp U ^pmUg Jhgngn[ [bpmpm2^n^w^mU öm^ubph hpm^mUmgmJp Jbö U[wqbgUmJ bU

b^mJnLmUbph mUhm^mumpnLpjnLUp:

SUmbumqbmUbph JjnLu ^mJpp hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhU fm^mfm^mUmpjmU mq^bgnLpjnLUp b^mJmmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm [bp|nLÖb|nL hmJmp hm2[wp^mJ t mj^ fm^mfm^mUmpjmU mnmUÖhU qnpöhfUbph mq^bgnL^jmUp b^mJnLmUbph mUhm[wumpmpjmU [pm: Uj^huh [bp[nLÖnLpjnLU bU hpm-^mUmgpb[ ^hmgbUmhUhU, U"mphnU U QhmpmU, n[fbp nLunLJUmuhpb bU ^b-mm^mU pjnLgbhg ^ppmpjmU n|npmnLJ ^mmmp[wö öm^ubph mq^bgnLpjnLUp b^mJnLmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm: hpbUg [bp|nLÖnLpjmU mp^jmUfrnJ UpmUf ^mpqb[ bU, np S<2M mU^mJ bp^pUbph JbömJmuUnLpjnLUmJ Um^m-^pngm^mU ^ppnLpjmU ummgmö bpb^mUbpU hpbUg hmum^m^hgUbphg m[b|h |.m[ bU Ubp^mjmUmJ: hu^ ^pngm^mU ^ppnLpjrnU ^ummgmö mUÖhUf, hm[wUm^mU t, np hbmmqmjnLJ ^mJ ^[hUbU qnpömqmp^, ^mJ ^bU nLUbUm |w[ [wpÖmrnpnLpjmJp m2^mmmUf5: S<2M-U UnyU^bu ^mrnmpb[ t [bpinLÖnLpjnLU1 ^mpqb|m hmJmp ^brnm^mU pjnLgbhg ^ppmpjmU n|npmnLJ ^mmmp[wö öm^-ubph mq^bgnLpjnLUp b^mJmmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm, nph mp^jmUf-Ubpp gnLjg bU mm|hu, np m2^mmn^Ubph JmuUmqhmm^mU [bpm^mmpmu-mmJUbpU oqUnLJ bU mb^Un|nqhm^mU mnmgpUpmgh hbmUmUfn[ m2^m-smUfh 2nL^mjnLJ mnmgmgmö pmgmum^mU hbmUmUfUbph Jb^JJmUp6: <mp-^mpjnLgbmmjhU fm^mfm^mUnLpjmU' ^ppmpjmU [pm mq^bgnLpjnLUp qUmhm-mn^ i[bp[nLÖnLpjnLU t hpm^mUmgpb[ UmU mUmbumqbm n-n$> <nb[bUQ' hmUqb-|n[ mjU bqpm^mgmpjmU, np ^ppmpjmU n|npmnLJ ^mmmp[mö öm^ubpp mjU hhJUm^mU qnpöhfU bU, npn[ ^brnnLpjnLUp ^mpn^ t mq^b[ ubpmU^Ubph JhgU mUhm[mumpnLpjmU ^n^mUgJmU [pm7:

^brnm^mU pjnLgbhg mnnqgm^mhmpjmU n|npmnLJ ^mmmp[mö öm^ubph mq^bgnLpjnLUp b^mJmmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU [pm hm2[mp^h mUmbum-qbmUbp ^mfbUpm^Q, 3nhmUp U ^hLhmJp ^mpqb[ bU, np mnn^m^mhmpjnL-

4 Sb'u Gunasinghe, Chandika et al., The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?, Journal of Policy Modeling, 42.2, 2020, t2 250-270:

5 Sb'u Piacentini, Mario and Chiara Monticone, Equations and Inequalities: Making Mathematics Accessible to All. PISA. OECD Publishing. 2, rue Andre Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, 2016:

6 Sb'u Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Education at a glance 2010: OECD indicators. Paris: OECD, 2011:

7 Sb'u Hoeven R., Income inequality in developing countries, past and present //The Palgrave Handbook of Development Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2019, tg 335-376:

umnns"bSbuuq-hsn^3nKb 13

ùq |mpn^ t oqùb[ mnnrçgnLpjmù hbm mprnmrç.pnrçw|mùnLpjmù |n-

mprçjnLÙfmJ ^mpqb[ bù, np mnn^2m^mhm|mù ômnmjnLpjnLÙùbph mpm-JmrçpJmù mqrçbgnLpjnLÙQ mùJhgm^bu ^ bpLnLJ pùm|£nLpjmù b|mJmmùbph 4pm, um|mjù Jbôm^bu pmpÔpmgùmJ t gmôp b|mJmmùbp mùbgnrçùbph |jmùfh npm|Q9: b^pn^m|mù hmùôùmdnrçn^h qb|nLjgùbpmJ Ù2^lJ t, np mnn^2m^mhm|mù ômnmjnLpjnLÙùbph npm||m[ mpmJmrç.pmJQ JbômgùnLJ t hmp|bph L ù^mumùbph hmJm|mpqh ^bpmpm2^nrçw|mù nLdQ qpbpb 1/3-n^10:

Cmm bp|pùbpnLJ Imnm^mpnLpjnLÙùbpQ hmp|mpjnLgbmmjhù pmrçwpm-|mùnLpjnLÙQ ù^mmm|mnL^rçnLJ bù mùmbum|mù m6h m^mhn^JmÙQ1 hnLju nLÙbùm|n^, np hm^bymi mprçjnLÙfQ, npù m^b|wùnLJ t rnmpbgmmph mùmbum-|mù m6h hbmLmùpn^, pmdmù^nLJ t pùm|£nLpjmù pn|np 2bpsbph JhgL' oq-Ùb|n^ hmrçpmhmpb[ ùmL mrçpmmnLpjnLÙQ: Sbum|mùnpbù |mpn^ t [hùbL mjù-^bu, np hm^bymi mpmmrçp^mô mprçjnLÙfQ pmdhù hmuùh Jhmjù hmpnLum ^m-4hù: Ujrç. rçb^pnLJ mùmbum|mù mÖQ ^ ù^mum^ mrçpmmnLpjmù hmrç^mhmp-JmÙQ: Uju hmpghù mùrç.pmrç.mpÔb[ bù mùmbumqbmùbp ^n|wpQ L £pbjQ11: hpbùg hbmmqnmnLpjnLÙQ |mmmpb|n4 92 bp|pùbph 40 mmp^m 4h^m|mqpnL-pjmù hh Jmù 4pm' ùpmùf bqpm|mgpb[ bù, np pùm|£nLpjmù b|mJmmùbph m6h hbm hmJmJmuùnpbù m6mJ bù ùmL mqpms pùm|£nLpjmù b|mJmmùbpQ: U^b[h nL2 ^n|wpQ, ^[bjùpbpqQ L £pbjQ, hpbùg hbmmqnmnLpjmù Jbg oqsm-qnpöb|n^ 113 bp|pùbph 4h^m|mqpnLpjnLÙQ, |p|hù usmgmù ùnLjù mprçjnLÙfQ12: 0npÔmnm|mù hbmmqnmnLpjnLÙ t hpm|mùmgpb[ ÙmL mùmbumqbm ftm-^m[hnÙQ, n^, oqrnmqnpôb[n4 50 qmpqmgn^ bp|pùbph 120 mmp^m ^h^m-|mqpnLpjnLÙQ, ^mpqb[ t, np mrçpmmnLpjmù Jhghù mnmÔqm|mùnLpjnLÙQ mùmbum|mù m6h ù|mmJmJp -2.5 t, um|mjù nLÙh Jbô 2brçnLJ13: 95 mn|nu ^ummhmpjmù Jhgm|mjpnLJ mnmÔqm|mùnLpjnLÙQ mmmmù^nLJ t -0.6-hg -3.5-h umhJmùùbpnLJ: Um Ù2mùm|nLJ t' bpb bp|hpù nLÙh 50 mn|nu mrçpm-mnLpjnLÙ dmJmùm|m2pgmùh u|qpnLJ L hhùq mmph 2mpnLÙm| |mpnrçwùmJ t m^mhn^b bpbf mn|nu mùmbum|mù m6, m^m dmJmùm|m2pgmùh ^bpgnLJ bp|pnLJ mrçpmmnLpjmù Jm|mprç.m|Q ||hùh 34-46 mn|nuh umhJmùùbpnLJ:

8 Sb'u Mackenbach, Johan P., Willem J. Meerding and Anton E. Kunst, Economic costs of health inequalities in the European Union. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 65.5, 2011, tg 412-419:

9 Sb'u Aaberge, Rolf, Anthony B. Atkinson and Jorgen Modalsli, On the measurement of long-run income inequality: Empirical evidence from Norway, 1875-2013, 2017:

10 Sb'u European Commission, Impact of fiscal policy on income distribution, Report on Public Finances in EMU 2017:

11 Sb'u Dollar David and Aart Kraay,Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of monetary economics 50.1, 2003, tg 133-162:

12 Sb'u Dollar David, Tatjana Kleineberg and Aart Kraay, Growth still is good for the poor. European Economic Review 81, 2016, tg 68-85:

13 Sb'u Ravallion Martin, Growth, inequality and poverty: looking beyond averages. World development 29.11, 2001, tg 1803-1815:

2U^hU pmdhU hmuUn^ b^mJmh m6hU qnLqmhbn, mUhm[mumpnLpjnLUQ u^qpmJ mömJ t, mjUnLhbmU U[wqmJ: Uju mbunLpjmUQ MmqUbgQ Ubp^mjmgpb[ t ^nph rnbufn[, npQ mUrnbumqhrnm^mU 2pgmUm^UbpmJ ummgb[ t «^nLqUbgh ^np» mU[mUnLJQ14: MmqUbgU mju ^mumQ hhJUm[npb[ t UpmUn[, np qmpqmgJmU u^qpUm^mU ^nL|mJ bp^pUbpQ hhJUm^mUmJ qpm^[mJ bU qjnL^mmUmbunL-pjmJp: Uj^ dmJmUm^mhmm[wönLJ m2^mmnLdQ hhJUm^mUmJ nLUh gmöp npm^m[npmJ: Mm^hmm|.h hmpmum ub^m^mUmmbpbpQ fm^mJ bU m6h pn|np oqnLmUbpQ U ^.mnUmJ m[b|h hmpmum, JhU^bn m^fmmUbph b^mJmm-UbpQ JUnLJ bU UnLjUQ: <bmUmpmp' mUhm[mumpnLpjnLUQ u^qpUm^mU 2pgm-UnLJ JbömUnLJ t: ^pmUhg hbmn bp^pUbpQ qjnL^mmUmbunLpjnLUhg mUgnLJ bU l^mmmpmJ mp^jnLUmpbpnLpjmUQ, U Jmp^mjhU ^m^hmm|.Q H-mnUmJ t m[b|h l^mpUnp: Ump^mjhU ^m^hmm|.h qmpqmgJmU hbm m[b|wUnLJ t m2^mmn^-Ubph m2^mmm[mpÖh Jm^mp^m^Q1 U^mumb|n[ pUm^mpjmU b^mJmmUbph m[b|wgJmUQ, U Jmp^h^ u^umJ bU fm^b[ mUmbum^mU m6h oqmmUbpQ: <b-mmqmjnLJ MmqUbgh mbunLpjmUQ tJ^hphM hbmmqnmmpjmU bUpmp^bghU mUmbumqbmUbp Um^UbpQ U Uh|wUn[h^Q15, n[fbp, nLumJUmuhpb|n[ 19882008 pp. mmppbp bp^pUbph [h^m^mqpnLpjrnUQ, b^mU mjU bqpm^mgmpjmU, np u^qpUm^mU 2pgmUmJ mUmbum^mU m6h hbm hmJmJmuUnpbU mömJ t mUhm[mumpnLpjnLUQ, hbmn u^umJ t U[mqb[: Um^mjU mUmbumqbmUbpQ ^mpqbghU, np ^pmUhg hbmn mUhm[mumpnLpjnLUQ ^p^hU u^umJ t m6b[:

Cbmwqnmmpjwb dbpn^wpwbmpjmb: <bmmqnmmpjmU hmJmp np^bu rnbum^mU hhJf bU ömnmjb[ ^mum^mU U dmJmUm^m^hg rnUmbumqbmUbph' hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhU fm^wfm^mUmpjmU [bpmpbpjm[ mbum^bmUbpQ U b^m-JnLmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjmU hm^pmhmpJmU nL^mpjmJp hmp^mpjnLgb-mmjhU fm^wfm^mUmpjmU mq^.bgnLpjmUQ qUmhmmn^ hbmmqnmmpjnLUUb-pQ: HLunLJUmuhpnLpjmU hmJmp mb^b^mm[m^mU hhJf bU ömnmjb[ « opbUf-UbpQ, « Mmnm[mpnLpjmU npn2nLJUbpQ, ^hUmUuUbph Um^mpmpmpjmU, MbUmpnUm^mU pmU^h U [h^m^mqpm^mU ^nJhmbh ^n^Jhg hpm^mpm^[mö [h^m^mqpm^mU m[|m[UbpQ: U^mmmUfmJ b^mJmmUbph mUhm[mumpnL-pjmU [pm hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhU fm^wfm^mUmpjmU mq^.bgmpjnLUQ qUmhm-rnb|nL hmJmp hpm^mUmg[b[ t nbqpbuhnU [bp|nLÖnLpjnLU, nph dmJmUm^ oq-mmqnpö[b[ t ^nfpmqnyU fmnm^muhUbph Jbpn^Q: <mp^mpjnLgbmmjhU fm-^mfm^mUnLpjmU mnmUÖhU qnpöhfUbph m^mqm 2mpdQUpmgQ ^mU^mmb-ub[nL hmJmp oqmmqnpö[b[ t bp^nL Jbpn^' 1. umhn^ JhghUUbph Jbpn^Q, 2. iqmpqmqnyU nbqpbuhnU Jn^b[Q, npnLJ, np^bu mU^m^ ^n^n^m^mU, QUmp[b[ t mU[mUm^mU <LU-U, hu^ ^mU^mmbuJmU hmJmp np^bu hhJf bU ömnmjb[ 2021-2026 pp. Mmnm[wpnLpjmU öpmqpnLJ mn^m <LU ^mU^mmbu-JmU wp^jnLUfUbpQ:

PUm^mpjmU b^mJnLmUbph mUhm[mumpnLpjnLUQ pUmpmqpn^ gnLgm-

Uh2UbpQ' ShUhh qnpöm^hgQ, ^bghLmjhU U f[wUmh|wjhU qnpöm^hgUbpQ, «

14 Sb'u Kuznets Simon, Economic growth and income inequality.The American economic review 45.1, 1955, tg 1-28:

15 Sb'u Lakner Christoph and Branko Milanovic, Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. The World Bank Economic Review 30.2, 2016, tg 203-232:

u"uчnns"ьsbuuq-hsn^ß-зn^"ь 15

^Ч-h hpшцшpшLnLJ t mшpbLшh |sp^öfn^: bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuш-pnLpJшh hшт.pшhшpJшh nLTT.nLp^Jp hшpLшpJnLgbmшJhh f шт.шf шLшhnL-p^h шq^bgnLpJnL^Q qhшhшmnт h2шhшLшLh Jn^b LшqJbLnL hшJшp шпш-2шpLbL bhf hш24шpLbL ¡bi^bpu дтдшф2Р, npQ LphnLpшqph phшL£nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ bnшJuJшLшJ^^ Lmp^ôfn^:

'ЪJшhшmhщ дтдш^2 umшhшLnL hшJшp ^ш^ шhhpшd■b2m t nLumJ^-uhpb phшL£nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph LшnnLд4шöfQ: PhшL£nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph nLunLJhшuhpnLpJшh шpп.JnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh mшLhu, np U' шпш-ghh f^hmhLh, U' 5-prç. f^hmhLh phшL£nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph Jbg hhJhшLшh bLшJnLmhbph штpJnLp^bpQ ^npuh bh' ^pÖnL pn2шL-

hbp U hщшumhbp, qjnL^Jpbpf^ U |bhrçwhhhbph ^шбшп^д umшд4шö Ь|ш-Jmrnhbp, mpшhuфbpmhbp:

PhшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph фnфn^nLpJnLhh nLunLJhшu^pbLnL hшJшp шhhpшdb2m t bLшJmh ШJu ^npu шт.PJnLphbph nLunLJhшuhpbL: иш|ш^ ^hh np hшuшhbLh bnшJuJшLшJ^h фбшLшqpnLpJnLh ^pÖnL ш2^шmшhfhg, pn2шLhbphg U hщшumhbphg, qjnLTJpbpfh U |bhrç^hhhbph ^ш-бшп^д U mpшhuфbpmhbphg umшд4шö bLшJnLmhbph 4bpшpbpJШL, шhhpш-db2m t QhmpbL bLшJmh ШJu ^npu шт.PJnLphbpQ phnLpшqpnт U п^ш^д фп^ш-phhn^ ШJhщhuh gnLgшhh2hbp, npnhg 4bpшpbpJШL bnшJuJшLшJhh gnLgшhh2-hbph шп|ш bh, U rç^hg фnфn^nLpJnLhhbph пhhшJhLшh ^bpnh2^L bLшJmh штpJnLphbp^ фnфn^nLpJшhQ hшJшhnLh t: bLшJmh шт.PJnLphbph U rç^hg фn^шp^hnт. фnфn^шLшhhbph JhgU nLdqhnLpjrnhQ цшpqbLnL hшJшp

hш24шpL4bL t n^hg JhgU Lnnb[Jшдhшh: 4шpÖnL Ш2^шmшhfQ phnLpшqpnт gnLgшh^2 t Qhrnp^b Jhghh шJuшLшh шh4шhшLшh Ш2^шmш4шpÖQ, щЬшш-Lшh pn2шLhbpQ U hщшumhbpQ phnLpшqpnт дnLдшhh2, щbmшLшh pjnLgbhg Lbhuшpn2шLhh U ung^ШLшLшh hщшumhbphh mpшJшпp4n^. JhgnghbpQ, qjnL^Jpbpf^ U Lbhrç^h^hbp^ ^шбшп^д umшg4nт. bLшJnLmhbpQ phnLpш-qpnT gnLgшh^2, qJnLTшmhmbuшLшh Jpbpf шpmшп.pnт.hbph hpшgJшh qhbph hhrçbfuQ, mpшhuфbpmhbpQ phnLpшqpnт gnLgшhh2, nb4h ^ фn^шhg4nт. шhÖhшLшh mpшhuфbpmhbpQ:

<Ш24шpLbLn4 4bpnh2JШL gnLgшhh2hbph шб^ mbJ^bpQ U rç^hf pшqJш-hшJшщшmшu^шh bLшJmh шт.PJnLph m^L mшp4ш L2nn^ Lumшgф hшJшщшmшu^шh bLшJmh шт.PJnLph hщшumnLJQ phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbp^ фnфn^nLpJшhQ: UjhnLhbmU qnLJшpbLn4 pnLnp bLшJmh ш^-pjmphbph hцшumnLJhbpQ, Lusшg4h phшL^nLpJшh bLшJm^ фnфn^nLpJшh шб^ mbJ^Q: итшд^шб gnLgшh^2hbp^ J^gngn^ phшL^nLpJшh mшppbp ^Jpb-p^ J^gU bLшJnLmhbp^ шhhш4шuшp pш2^4шönLpJnLhQ hш24шpL4nLJ t h^h-qbpnpn f4шhm^Lh phшL^nLpjшh U шnшg^h f4шhm^Lh phшL^nLpjшh Ь|ш-JnLmhbp^ шб^ mbJ^bp^ hшpшpbpnLpJшJp: bpb hшpшpbpnLpJшh шpпJnLh-fnLJ umшд4nLJ t 1-hg Jbô ph4, nLpbJh h^hqbpnpn f^hm^h phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph шбbL bh ш4bLh шpшq, fшh шnшghh f4шhmhLh phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbpQ, hbmUшpшp, bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ JböшдbL t: bpb hшpшpbpnLpJшh шpпJnLhfnLJ umшg4nLJ t Q-hg 1-h QhLшö hшm4шönLJ ph^, nLpbJh шnшghh f4шhmhLh phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph шбbL bh ш4bLh шpшq, fшh hhhqbpnpn f4шhmhLh phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbpQ, hbmUшpшp, bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ h4шqbL t:

4bpinLÖnLpjnLb: Ш2^шphnLJ hшJш2^шphшJhh JpgшlgnL-

p^hQ rçh^^jn^ mhmbunLpjnLh urnbrçôb|nL hшJшp шhhpшd■b2m Ьш^шщш]-

Jшhhbphg JblQ pJnL2bmшJhh nbumpuhbph ^^^p^h ШJhщhuh hшJш-

^pqh ÖUш4npnLJh t, npQ n^ JhшJh ^bmf t шщшhnф ^Ь^ш^ш^ шщшpшmh qnpöшnnLJphbph шhhpшdb2m Jшlшprç.шln4 hpшlшhшgnLJQ, шд ^ши bpш2-fi^^nph pJnL2bmшJhh hhшpш4npnLpJnLhhbph шhQhrç.hшm Qhrç.шpÖшlnLJQ U r|^hg шprç.JnLhш4bm oqmшqnpönLJQ:

« hшplшJhh hшJшlшpqh шhgbL t ÖUш4npJшh bpbf фnLL, 1. hnp hшp-hшJшlшpqh umbrçômJ (1992-1995 pp.), 2. hшplшJhh opbhf-

hbph QhrçnLhmJ (1995-2GGG pp.), 3. шд hшplшJhh pшpbфn^nLJhbph hpшlш-hшgnLJ (2GGG p. Jhh^U opu):

Lbp^jmJu «-mJ qnpômJ t bplJшlшprç.шl hшplшJhh hшJшlшpq, nph QhrçqplmJ t h^Q hшplшmbuшl. jnpQ' цЬшш^ш^, bplmuQ1 mbrçm^h: Cum

« hшplшJhh opbhuqpfh 6-prç. hnrç^ôh' mшppbp4nLJ bh цЬшш^ш^ U mbrçm-

^h hbmUJШL hшp^шmbuш^hbpQ. щbmшlшh hшplbph bh' UU<, шlghqшJhh hшpl, 2шhnLpшhшp^, b^шJmшJhh hшpl, phшщшhщшhшlшh hшpl, 6шhш-цшphшJhh hшpl, 2P2шhшnnLpJшh hшpl, mbrçm^h hшplbph bh' шh2шpd qnLjfh hшpl, фn^ш^pшJh2nghbph qnLJ£шhшpl16:

<шuшpш^nLpJшh b^Jmmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh щшmóшnhbph nL qnpônhhbpQ pшqJшph4 nL pшqJшphnLJp bh: <bmUшpшp, bpb hшuшpшlnL-PJшh шhrç.шJhbph nLhbhшJhh hnLjhhul hш4шuшp Jb^hшp^шJhh щшJJшhhbp, JhUhnLjh t, hpшhg b^Jmmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ ^tp 4bpшhш: HLurnh ^bmnLpjnLhQ цшpmш4np t hpшlшhшghbL hшJшщшmшu^шh unghш|шlшh ^rçm^^hnLpjrnh, np^buqh шhшщшhn4 ^ш4bph nLhbhшh шщpnLumh h4шqшqnLJh щшJJшhhbp: иш^ш^ unghш|шlшh 6h2s ^rçm^^hnLpjrnh ^mpb|nL hшJшp ^bmnLpjnLhQ ^bmp t qhшhшmh b^Jmmhbph шhhш4шuш-pnLpJшh Jш^шp^ш^Q: ^njnLpjnLh nLhh b^Jmmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh Jш-^p^lh hш24шp^Jшh Jh ^hh JnrnbgmJ' Lnpbhgh lnp, Shhhh qnp^lhg, rç.bgh|^jhh qnpöш^hg, f^hrnhi^jhh qnpöшlhg:

Чбшщшт^Ьр 1. Sfibfifi цпрдш^др фпфп^тр/тЬр 2004-2020 pp.1.

16 Sb'u O^ji^umi^hh Ci^hpi^i^bmnLpji^h hi^pli^jhh opbhuqhpf (4 hnl|mbJpbph 2G16 p.):

17 « Ц.Ч, unghш[шlшh i^i^mlbpQ U i^gi^mnLpjnLhQ, 2GG4-2G2G:

U^nnSLSbUUq-hSnKß^nM. 17

^öшщшmLbp 1-nLJ hbpLшJшg4шö t Shhhh qnpöшLhgQ «-h hшJшp, 2QQ4-2Q2Q pp.: 9^^s|bphg bpUnLJ t, np pbU Jhh^U 2QQ8 p4шLшhh mhmbuшLшh бqhшdшJQ mhmbuшLшh шбр pшpöp tp, uшLшJh п^ш Jhgngn^ ш^шдшб bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшp thh pш2^4nLJ phшL^nLpJшh JhgU, nLu-sh Shhhh qnpöшLhдh шбh JhsnLJ t nLhbgbL: Lш^шбqhшdшJшJhh dшJшhш-Lшhшm4шönLJ Shhhh qnpöшLhgQ 2QQ5 p. Q.359-hg 2QQ8 p4шLшhhh n^pÖbL tp Q.389: бqhшdшJh hbsUшhfn4 phшL^nLpJшh ^Jpbph JhgU bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ h^mqbL t:

PhшL^nLpJшh 2PgшhnLJ bLшJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшp pш2^4шönLpJnLhQ nLunLJhшuhpbLnL hшJшp ш4bLh Lш4 дnLдшhh2 t phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLmhbph pш2^4шönLpjnLhh qus f4шhmhLШjhh ^Jpbph: ^öшщшsLbp 2-nLJ hbpLшjшg-t phшL^nLpjшh bLшJnLmhbph pш2^4шönLpjnLhh qus f4шhshLШjhh ^Jpbph' 2QQ4-2Q2Q p4шLшhhbphh.

cl-¿шщшm^Ьp 2.

РЬш^тр/шЬ ЬЦш^пирЬЬрр рш2№4ш&п1р/п1ЬЬ pup f^bshmhb ¡udphpfr (2004-2020 pp.)18

föbU nLunLJhшuhp4n^. dшJшhшLшhшs4шönLJ Shhhh qnpöшLhgQ tшLшh фnфn^nLpjnLhhbph ¿h bhpшpL4bL, uшLшjh, qus qöшщшsLbp 2-h sЦJШLhbph, 5-pn f^hshLh phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLshbpQ h^mqbL bh' 48.6 sn|nuhg rçwn-hшLn4 42.9 sn|nu: UhUhnLjh dшJшhшL, шnшghh f^hshih phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLshbph шбbL bh' 4.6 sn|nuhg п.шnhшLn4 5.6 sn|nu: иш gnLjg t sшLhu, np 2QQ4-2Q2Q pp. phшL^nLpJшh bLшJnLshbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ, pbU фnfp ^шфп^, h^mqbL t: U.hhш4шuшpnLpjшh LpбшsJшh ^шфh ш4bLh чшs-Lbpш4np sbuhbLnL hцшsшLn4 qöшщшsLbp 3-nLJ hbpLшJшg4шö t f ^hsh-LШJhh qnpöшLhgQ 2QQ4-2Q2Q pp.:

18 LnLjh mb^mJ:

11.0 10.6

7.0

4 / / 4 / / / # # <f / / / ^ / / #

Чбшщшт^Ьр 3. цпрдш^д^ фпфп^тр]тЬр 2004-2020 pp.'9

Cum qöшщшmlbp 3-h m4JШLhbph, р^ш^т^ш^ qnpöшlhgD 2GG4-2GG6 pp. ImpnLl h^qbi t' 2GG6 p^^hhh hшuhb|n4 nLunLdhшuhp4nrç. ¿ш-dшhшlшhшm4шöh шdbhшgшöp gnLgшhh2hh, hul 2GG7-2G16 p^^hhbphh ш6Ь[ t: 2G17-2G2G p^^hhbph Q^pшgfnLJ hnphg u^ub[ t h^qbi Iplhh hшuhb|n4 7.6 qnpöш^gh:

blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh фш qnpônhhbph dbg ^^h

rç.bp nLhbh hшp^шpJnL2bmшJh^ fш^шршlшhnLpJшh qnpôhfhbpD' т^дшф hшplbp, шhnLrçдшlh hшplbp U щЬшш^ш^ öш^ubp: 9-hшhшmb|nL hшJшp, pb шnшhöhh hшplbph U цЬшш^ш^ öш^ubph mbuшlhbph hh^bu bh шqrç.nLd b^dnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh фш, ^qdbi bhf dnrç.b[ U nbqpbuhnh ^bp-t^^p^h dhgngn^ hш24шplbL П.pшhg шqrç.bgnLpJшh ^шфр b^dmrnhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh фш:

b^шdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh фш шnшhöhh hшplшmbuшlhbph U mшppbp n|npmhbpnLd щbmшlшh öш^ubph шq^bgnLpJnLhQ qhшhшmb|nL hш-dшp ^qd^ô dnrç.b|nLd np^bu 1ш^|ш[ фnфn^ш^шh t Qhmp^bL dbp шпш-2шp^шö, phш^^nLpJшh b^шJnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ phnLpшqpn^ b^d-цш1щ^ hh^bfuh gnLgшhh2D: Cp^bu фnфn^ш^шhhbp Qhmp^bL bh

щЬшш^шЬ pjnLgbhg Ippmp^h U шmrç2шщшhnLpJшh n|npmhbphh mpш-dшrç.p4шö öш^ubpQ, цbmш^шh pjnLgbhg mpшdшrç.p4шö rç.pшdш2hnphhbpD, цbmш^шh pjnL^b hш4шfшqp4шö шlghqшJhh U b^шJmшJhh hшp^bpQ2G, qpшrç^шöhbph ph^D, bplhp dmrnp qnpöшö qpnuш2p2hlhbph ph^D U шh4ш-hшlшh <LU фnфn^nLpJnLhD21: Pn|np gnLgшhh2hbpD dnrç.b|nLd hbp^^g^ô bh hш^nprç. dшJшhш^ш2P2шhh hlшmdшdp hш24шpl4шö ш6h mbd^bpn^ U

iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.

19 "bnLjh mbipLd:

2G b^mJnLmhbph шhhшфшuшpnLpJшh флш pn[np hmp^mmbum^hbph mq^bgnLpjnLhD Jn^bih mp^.jnLhfhbphg ^mpq t ^mpÖb[, np mp^.jnLhfhbp nLhbh Jhmjh i^bmml|mh

pjnLgb hшфшgшqpфшô шlghqшJhh U blmJmmjhh hmplbpD:

21 ShmbunLpjnLhD phnLpmqpn^ фnфn^шlшhhbph mq^bgnLpjnLhD blmJnLmhbph шhhшфшuшpnL-pjmh флш hm24^plb[nL hmJmp phmp^b bh qpmrç^^ôhbph ph^D, bplhp dnLSf qnpômô qpn-um2p2hlhbph ph^D U шh4шhшlшh CbU-h1 np^bu mhlm^ фnфn^шlшhhbp: 2pш^4шôhbph ph^h Dhrnp^b[ t np^bu mhlm^ фпфп^ш1ш^ fmhh np phml^nLpjmh blmJnLmhbph ImnnLg-4шôfnLJ mJbhmJbô mbumlmpmp l2h^h nLhbh ш2^1ШфшЬр qnpônhhg umшg4шô blmJnLmhb-PD: 2pnuш2p2hlhbph ph^D Jn^b[nLJ Dh^qpl^b[ t np^bu шhlш^ фnфn^шlшh, fшhh np qpn-uш2P2nLpJшh шбр ^pшhnLJ t hbpfhh ^шhшh2шplD^ ш4b[шghb[n4 phшl¿nLpJшh bli^dnLmhb-

PD, hh^^bu hшU qhшhшmb[nL hi^di^p bplpnLJ шpmшpdnLJph hbphnufh шq^bgnLpJnLhD: CbU-h, np^bu шhlш^ фnфn^шlшh, hbpшn4b[ t dn^b[nLd" ^шpqb[nL hшdшp 4nLqhbgh rnbunLpjuh1 « mhmbunLpjnLhnLd «Ш2^шmb[nL» hшhqшdшhfD:

umnns"bSbuuq-hsn^3nKb 19

ubqnhmjhh 62qpm4mô bh' ubqnhmjhh mmmmhmdhbpD dbrçdbm hmdmp22: ^n-nLhh hbmLjmL mbufQ.

QFt = QFt-2 +HCt + HCt_10 + ETt_8 + GCt_7 + ITt_13 +EMPLOYt_20 + TOURt + ECt +ECt_44 + GDPt_25 + C

npmbrç^ QFt -h phm^mpjmh b^mdmmhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjnLhD phnLpm-qpn^ bnmdujm^mjhh hh^bpuh gnLgmhh2h t t-prç. bnmdujm^md, HCt-h' ^bmm^mh pjnLgbhg ^mmmp4mô mnnrç^m^mhm^mh ôm^-

ubph m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^md, ETt-h' ^bmm^mh pjnLgb hm4mpmqp4mô m^ghqmjhh hmp^h ôm4m[-

hbph m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd, GCt-h' ^bmm^mh pjnLgb^g mpmdmrç.p4mô rç.pmdm2hnphhbph ôm4m|h

m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd, ITt-h' ^bmm^mh pjnL^b hm4mpmqp4mô b^mdmmjhh hmp^h ôm^m[-

hbph m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd, EMPLOYt-h' qpmrç4.môhbph p4h m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd, TOURt-h' bp^hp dmmô qpnum2p2h^^bph p4h m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmd-ujm^md,

ECt-h' ^bmm^mh pjmgbhg ^mmmp4mô ^ppm^mh ôm^ubph m6h

mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd, GDPt-h' mh4mhm^mh <LU m6h mbd^Q t-prç. bnmdujm^nLd: b^mdmmhbph mhhm4mumpmpjmh 4pm hmp^mpjnLgbmmjhh pmrçwpm-^mhmpjmh mq^bgnLpjnL^p qhmhmmbm hmdmp 4bpnh2jm[ Jnrç.b[nLd np^bu mh^m^ ^n^n^m^mhhbp hbp^mjmg4mô bh phm^mpjmh b^mdmmhbph mh-hm^mumpnLpjnL^p phmpmqpn^ bnmdujm^mjhh hh^bpuh gnLgmhh2D 2 bnmdu-jm^ mnm£, ^bmm^mh pjnLgb hm4mpmqp4mô m^ghqmjhh hmp^h ôm^m[hbpQ 8 bnmdujm^ mnm£, ^bmm^mh pjnLgbhg mpmdmrç.p4mô rç.pmdm2hnphhbph ôm-4m|D 7 bnmdujm^ mnm£, ^bmm^mh pjnLgb hm4mpmqp4mô b^mdmmjhh hmp-L|h ôm^m[hbpQ 13 bnmdujm^ mnm£, qpmrç4.môhbph ph4D 20 bnmdujm^ mnm£, bp^hp dmmp qnpômô qpnum2p2h^hbph ph4D, mh^mhm^mh <LU-h 25 bnmd-ujm^ mnmg: ^brnm^mh pjnLgbhg mnnrç^m^mhmpjmh L ^ppmpjmh n|npmhb-pnLd ^mmmp^mô ôm^ubph ôm^m[hbpD dnrç.b|nLd np^bu mh^m^ ^n^n^m-^mh Dh^qp^^mô bh bp^nL dmdmhm^mjhh |wqn4, mjuhhph' ^n^n^m-

^mhh 4pm mqrçmd bh bp^nL dmdmhm^mhmm4mômd: Unnrç^m^mhmpjmh n|npmnLd ^mmmp^mô ôm^ubph ôm^m[D ^n^n^m^mhh 4pm mq^nLJ

t mnmghhD' mhJhgm^bu, bp^pnp^D' 10 bnmJujm^ hbmn: MppnLpjmh n[nprnnLJ ^mmmp4mô ôm^ubph ôm4m[D b^mJnLmhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjmh 4pm mq-^nLJ t mnmghhD' mhJhgm^bu, bp^pnp^D' 44 bnmJujm^ hbmn: Uh^m^ ^n^n-^m^mhhbph Lmqbph bp^mpnLpjnLhhbph Dhsp4bL bh U^mh^bh (Akaike information criterion), C4mpgh (Schwarz information criterion), <mhmh-^jnLhhh (Hannan-Quinn information criterion) ^w^npn2h^hbph hm24mp^Jmh Jhgngn4: 0nfpmqnLjh fmnm^nLuhhbph Jbpn^n4 Jn^b[D hw24wp^b|nL ^b^fnLJ ummg-4nLJ bh hbmLjwL mp^.jnLhfhbpD.

22 Ubqnbmj^b Ö2^PmnLJbbpb |ipwl|wbwg4b|. bb umhn^_ J^gh^^bp^ Jbpn^n^ (Moving Avarage):

QFt = 0.42 * QFt_2 - 0.0018 * HCt - 0.0013 * HCt_10 - 0.0012 * ETt_8 + 0.0022 *GCt_7 + 0.0021 * /rt_13 + 0.0087 * £MPLOrt_20 -4.18 *7Wfit - 0.0033 * Щ - 0.0008 * ЯСё_44 - 0.00 2 2 * GDPt_25 + 0.417

Cum dn^b[h шp^JnLhfhbph, bl!dnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh фш ^ш-lшh !qrç.bgnLpjnLh bh nLhbhnLd (dböшhnLd t bl!dnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnL-pjnLhD) blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhD phmp!qpn^ b^dm^^h hh-^bfuh gnLgшhh2D, 4bs!l!h pjnLgbhg mpшdшrç.p4шö rç.pшdш2hnphhbpD, 4b-mшlшh pjnL^b hш4шfшqp4шö blшdmшJhh hшplh öш4шLhbpD U qpшrç^шö-hbph öш4шLD: Pшgшuшlшh шqrç.bgnLpJnLh bh nLhbhnLd (h^qbghmd bh Ь1ш-dnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhD) щbmшlшh pjnLgbhg шnnrç2шщшhnLpJшh U lppnLpJшh n[nprnhbpnLd lшmшp4шö öш^ubpD, щbmшlшh pjnLgb hш4шfш-qp^!Ö шlghqшJhh hшplh öш4шLhbpD, bplhp drnmp qnpöшö qpnuш2p2hlhb-Ph ph^D U шh4шhшlшh <LU-h:

blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh 4bpшgdшh nL^mp^dp hшplшpJnL-2bmшJhh fшrçш£шlшhnLpJшh шprç.JnLhш4bmnLpJшh dшlшprç.шlh pшpöpшg-dшh nL^hhbpD qrnhb[nL hшdшp nLunLdhшuhpbhf hшplшpJnL2bmшJhh рш^ш-

fшlшhnLpJшh шnшhöhh qnpôhfhbph шqrç.bgnLpJnLhD, lшh^шmbubhр ^pшhg ^hhшdhlшh hш2np^ 5 m!phhbph hшdшp: Чшh^шmbunLd hpшlшhшg4bL t u!hn^ dh2hhhbph dbpnrçn^ U щшpqшqnLJh nbqpbuhnh dn^b[n^: Uшhn^ dh2h-hh dbpnrçn^ hш24шplbLhu oqmшqnpö4bL bh hш^nprç. bplnL mшphhbph hnLjh bnшduJшlhbph m4JШLhbpD: ^шpqшqnLJh nbqpbuhnh dn^b[nLd np^bu шhlш^ фnфn^шlшh Dhmp^bL t шh4шhшlшh <LU-h: Чшh^шmbudшh hhdf t hшh-^huшgbL « Чшnш4шpnLpJшh 2G21-2G26 pp. öpшqpn4 hш^шmbu4шö тш-pblшh dh2hhnLd 7 mnlnu, hul pшpbhщшum шpmшfhh mhmbuшlшh dшhhbpnLd, 9 mnlnu mhmbuшlшh !ÓD23:

Mppmpjmb: 'Ъш^nprç. pшdhnLd hbplшJшg4шö dnrç.b|hbph шprç.JnLhfhbphg шlhhшJm t, np lppnLpj!h n[nprnnLd щbmшlшh hbp^pmdhbpD tшlшh h2!-hшlnLpJnLh nLhbh blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJшh qnpômd: ^bmшlшh pjnL2bhg lppnLpJшh n[nprnnLd lшmшp4шö öш^ubph dbl mnlnu ш6D Ь1Ш-dnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhD hш^ h^qbghmd t G.GG33 mnlnun^, шщш' 44 b^dml hbrnn' G.GGGB mnlnun^: 2G2G p^^hhh щbmшlшh pjnL2bhg lppnLpJшh n[nprnnLd бш^^ t 143796.3 dhLhnh rç.pшd: U!hn^ dh2hhhbph dbpnrçn^ lшh^шmbudшh шprç.JnLhfnLd 2G26 p^^hhh щbmшlшh pjnL2bhg lppnLpJшh n|npmhh lmpшdшrç.pф 26691G.9 dhLhnh rç^d, !juhhph' ш6D llшqdh B5 mnlnu: Uju^huh qшpqшgdшh lppnLpJшh nLnpmnLd 1ш-

mшpф^ ^^ubpD blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhD Ih^qbghbh G.34B5 mnlnun^:

^шpqшqnLJh nbqpbuhnh dnrç^n^ lшh^шmbudшh dшdшhшl bpb bh-p!rç.p4nLd t, np <LU-h mшpblшh ^6h 7 mnlnun^, шщш 2G26 p^^hhh цbmшlшh pjnL2bhg lppnLpJшh nLnpmhh lhшmlшgф 1B769B.7 dhLhnh rç.pшd (ш6D, 3G mnlnu): Ujrç. rçb^fmd щbmшlшh pjnL2bhg lppnLpJшh nLnpmnLd 1ш-mшpф^ Ö!^ubpD blшdnLmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhD lh^qbghbh G.123

23 Sb'u « ЧшmшфшpnLpJшh 2G21-2G26 p^nlnhhbph ôpnqhp, N1363-U npn2nLd, 1B oqnumnuh 2G21:

uuчnns"ьsbuuq-hsn^ß-зn^"ь 21

sn^nun^.: hul bpb bhpшпp4.nLJ t, np <LU-h ^6h sшpblшh 9 snlnun^, шщш 2Q26 p^m^hhh щbsшlшh pjnLgbhg lppnLpJшh nLnpshh lspш-Jшпp4h 2Q2897.3 J[h пpшJ (шбр' 41 snlnu): Ujn rç.b4fnLJ ^ppnLp^h nLnp-snLJ щbsшlшh öш^ubpQ b^JnLshbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ lh^uqbghbh Q.1681 sn^nun^.:

Цnnвдшщшhшpjшb: b^JnLshbph шhhшlшuшpnLpJшh фш hшplш-PJnLgbsшJhh fштшfш^шhnLpJшh шqпbдnLpJnLhQ qhшhшsnт Jnnbhbph шp-njnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh sшLhu, np шnnт2шцшhnLpJnLhQ b^JnLshbph шhhш-4шuшpnLpJшh U штfшsnLpJшh hштpшhшpJшh ш Jbhшшpп.JnLhшlhs qnp-ôhfhbphg t: ^bsш^шh pjnLgbhg шnnт2шцшhnLpJшh nLnpsnLJ lшsшplшö öш^ubph Jbl sn^nu шбр b^Jmshbph шhhшlшuшpnLpJnLhQ hш^ шhJhgш-^bu h^uqbghmJ t Q.QQ18 sn^nun^., шщш' 1Q b^Ju^l hbsn' Q.QQ13 sn-lnun^: 2Q2Q p^u^hhh щbsшlшh pjnLgbhg шnnт.gшщшhnLpJшh nLnpsnLJ бш^^ t 148236.8 JhLhnh rç^J: Uшhnт Jhghhhbph Jbpn^n^. цbsш^шh pjnLgbhg шnnт2шцшhnLpJшh nLnpsnLJ lшsшplnт ^^ubph lшh^шsbuJшh шpп.JnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh sшLhu, np 2Q26 p^u^hhh щbsш^шh pjnLgbhg шпп^-gшцшhnLpJшh nLnpshh lspшJшп.pф 224149.8 JhLhnh пpшJ, ШJuhhfh' 2Q2Q p^m^hh дnLдшhh2h hшJbJшsnLpJшJp шбр l^qJh 51 snlnu: Uju щшJJшh-hbpnLJ цbsш^шh pjnLgbhg шnnт.gшщшhnLpJшh nLnpsnLJ ^srnp^nT. 6ш^Ь-PQ 2Q26 p^u^hhh b^JnLshbph шhhшlшuшpnLpJnLhQ lh^uqbghbh Q.1581 sn^nun^.:

^rnpqrnqnyh nbqpbuhnh Jn^n^ lшh^шsbuJшh шpп.JnLhfhbpn4 srnpb-^h 7 snlnu shsbuшlшh щшJJшhhbpnLJ 2Q26 p^u^hhh цbsш^шh pjnLgbhg ^sprnJrnnp^h 168154.7 JhLhnh пpшJ (шбр' 13.4 snlnu): Uju rçb^fnLJ 2Q26 p^^rnhhh цbsш^шh pjnLgbhg шnnт2шцшhnLpJшh nLnpsnLJ ^rnsrnp-фт ^^ubpQ b^Jmshbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ lh^uqbghbh Q.Q415 sn-lnun^, hull srnpb^rnh 9 snlnu shsbuшlшh щшJJшhhbpnLJ 2Q26 p^u-^hhh ^bsrnlrnh pjnLgbhg lspшJшп.pф 186168.1 JhLhnh nprnJ (шбр' 25 snlnu): Uju ^rnjJrnhhbpmJ щbsшlшh шnnт.gшщшhшlшh öш^ubpQ b^Jrns-hbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ lh^uqbghbh Q.Q775 snlnun^:

^pшdш2bnphbЬp: b^Jmshbph шhhшlшuшpnLpJшh фpшgJшh nLTT.nL-PJшJp hшplшpJnLgbsшJhh f шт.шf шlшhnLpJшh шqпbдnLpJnLhQ qhrnhrnsnT. Jn^bLh шpп.JnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh srnLhu, np щbsшlшh pjnLgbhg spшJшп.pф^. n.prnJrn2hnphhbph öшlшLh Jbl snlnu шбр b^Jmshbph шhhшlшuшpnLpJnL-hQ 7 bnшJuJшl hbsn rn^bLrnghnLJ t Q.QQ22 snlnun^: 2Q2Q p^u^hhh щЬ-sшlшh pjnLgbhg sprnJrnnp^.bL t 186854.2 JhLhnh пpшJh nprnJrn2hnph: иш-hnT Jhghhhbph Jbpn^n^. ^bsrnlrnh пpшJш2hnphhbph пhhшJhlшJh lшh^ш-sbuJшh rnpnjnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh sшLhu, np 2Q26 p^u^hhh щbsшlшh pjnLgbhg IsprnJrnnp^h 36899Q.9 JhLhnh rç^Jh ПPшJш2hnph, rnjuhhfh' 2Q2Q p^u^hh gnLgшhh2h hlшsJшJp шбр l^qJh 97 snlnu: Ujrç. rç.b4fnLJ 4b-sшlшh пpшJш2hnphhbpQ 2Q26 p^lrnhhh blшJnLshbph шhhш4шuшpnL-pjnLhQ lJböшghbh Q.2134 snlnun^:

^шpqшqnLJh nbqpbuhnh Jn^bLn^ ^bsrn^h пpшJш2hnphhbph lшh^ш-sbuJшh шpпJnLhfhbpQ gnLjg bh srnLhu, np 7 snlnu shsburn^h шбh ЦШJ-JшhhbpnLJ ^bsrnlrnh пpшJш2hnphhbpQ 2Q26 p4шlшhhh lhшuhbh 226149.8 JhLhnh nprnJh (шбр' 21 snlnu), ШJuhhfh' blшJnLshbph шhhш4шuшpnLpJnLhQ

0.0462 mn^nun^: 9 mn^nu т^тЬиш^ш^ шб^ щшJJшhhЬpnLJ 2026 р^ш^шв^в Ь^шJnLmhЬph ш^ш^шишрт^т^р ^hшuhh 249304.3 J^-L^n^ rç.pшJh (шбр1 33 mn^nu), b^Jmmhbp^ шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ

0.0726 mn^nun^:

Ц^д^щфЬ hшp^: b^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJшh 4ЬpшgJшh nL|-^nLрJшJp hшp^шpJnL2ЬmшJh^ f ш|Шfш^шhnLрJшh шqrç.ЬgnLрJnLhQ qhшhш-rnn| Jn^bL^bp^ шprç.JnLhfhЬpQ gnijg bh тш1^и, np ш^ghqшJhh hшp^Q 4Ьpш-Lш4 hbpnLd тв^: ^Ьтш^ш^ pjnLgb hш4шfшqp4n| ш^ghqшJhh l^p^ öш4шLhЬph Jb^ mn^nu шбр Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ 8 b^Ju^^ hbsn h4шqЬghnLJ t 0.0012 mn^nun^: 2020 р^ш^шв^в щЬтш^ш^ pjnL^b t hш4шfшqp4ЬL 123555.7 J^hnh ^pшJ ш^ghqшJhh hшp^: Uшhn| J^-Jbpn^n^ цЬтш^ш^ pjnLgb hш4шfшqp4n| ш^ghqшJhh hшpф 6ш-4шLhЬph ^шh^шmЬuJшh шprç.JnLhfhЬpQ gnLjg bh mшLhu, np 2026 р^ш^шв^в цЬтш^ш^ pjnL^b ^hш4ш£шqpф 139368.9 J^Lhnh n^J, npp 2020 р^ш^шв^ gnLgшhh2hg Jb& t 13 mn^nun^: Uju^hph' 2026 р^ш^шв^ ^шh^шmЬuJшh шp-^.jnLhfhbph hшJшÖшJh, цЬтш^шв pjnLgb hш4шfшqp4шö ш^ghqшJhh hшpф öш4шLhЬpQ b^Jmmhbph шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ ^h4шqЬghЬh 0.0156 mn^n-un^:

^шpqшqnLJh nbqpbu^nh JnrçbLh oqhnLрJшJp ^шmшp4шö ^шh^шmЬu-Jшh шp^.JnLhfhЬpQ gnLjg bh np 7 mn^nu mhmЬuш^шh шб qpшhgЬLnL

rçb^fmJ 2026 р^ш^шв^в цЬтш^шв pjnLgb ^hш4шfшqpф 154856.4 J^hnh rç^J ш^ghqшJhh hшp^ (шбр1 25 mn^nu), шJuhhfh, Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4ш-uшpnLрJnLhQ ^h4шqЬghh 0.03 mn^nun^: 9 mn^nu mhmЬuш^шh шб^ rçb^fmJ 2026 р^ш^шв^в цЬтш^шв pjnLgb ^hш4шfшqpф 171516.1 J^hnh ^pшJ ш^-ghqшJhh hшp^ (шбр1 39 mn^nu), шJuhhfh, Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnL-PJnLhQ ^h4шqЬghh 0.0468 mn^nun^:

Ь^ш^тщфЬ hшp^: b^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJшh 4ЬpшgJшh nL|-г|_nLрJшJp hшp^шpJnL2ЬmшJhh f ш|Шfш^шhnLрJшh шqrç.ЬgnLрJnLhQ qhшhш-rnn^ Jn^^bp^ шp^JnLhfhЬphg bpUnLJ t, np цЬтш^шв pjnLgb hш4шfшqp4n| Ь^шJmшJhh hшp^Q pшgшuшpшp t шqrç.nLJ Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnL-р]шв фш: ^Ьтш^шв pjnLgb hш4шfшqp4шö Ь^шJmшJhh hшpф öш4шLhЬph Jb^ mn^nu шбр Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ 13 b^Ju^^ hbsn шф-LшghnLJ t 0.0021 mn^nun^: 2020 р^ш^шв^в ^тш^шв pjnLgb t hш4шfш-qp^bL 411514.5 JhLhnh rç^J Ь^шJmшJhh hшp^: Uшhn| Jh2hhhЬph JЬрn^n4 цЬmш^шh pjnL^b hш4шfшqp4n| Ь^шJmшJhh öш4шLhЬph ^шв^ш-

mЬuJшh шp^.JnLhfhЬpQ gnLjg Ьh mшLhu, np 2026 р^ш^шв^в ^hш4шfшqp4h 500389.2 JhLhnh ^pшJ Ь^шJmшJhh hшp^, npp 2020 р^ш^шв^ gnLgшhh2hg Jbô t 21 mn^nun^, шJuhhfh, 2026 р^ш^шв^в ^тш^шв pjnLgb hш4шfш-qp4шö Ь^шJmшJhh hшpф öш4шLhЬpQ Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ ^ш4ЬLшghЬh 0.0441 mn^nun^:

^шpqшqnLJh nЬqpЬuhnh Jn^bLn^ hш4шfшqp4n| Ь^шJmшJhh 6ш-

4шLhЬph ^шh^шmЬuJшh шp^.JnLhfhЬpQ gnLjg Ьh mшLhu, np 7 mn^nu mhmЬ-uш^шh шб^ ^b^fnLJ 2026 р^ш^шв^в ^hш4шfшqp4h 714244.6 JhLhnh ^pшJ Ь^шJmшJhh hшp^ (шбр1 73 mn^nu), шJuhhfh, 2026 р^ш^шв^в Ь^шJnLmhЬph шhhш4шuшpnLрJnLhQ ^ш4ЬLшhш 0.1533 mn^nun^: 9 mn^nu mhmЬuш^шh шб^ щшJJшhhЬpnLJ 2026 р^ш^шв^в ^hш4шfшqp4h 808058.5 JhLhnh ^pшJ

u"UL,nns"bSbuuq-hsn^3nKb 23

(W6Q' 96 mn^nu), mjuhhph' 2026 p4m^mhhh hm4mpmqp4nT blmdmmjhh hmplh &m4m[hbpQ blmdmmhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjnLhQ ^m^^Lmg^b^ 0.2016 mn^nun^:

bqpw^wgmpjnLb <n^4m&nLd lmmmp4m& nLumdhmuhpnLpjnLhhbph U 4bp[nL-SnLpjnLhhbph mp^J^hprnd hmhqb[ bhp npn2mlh bqpmlmgnLpjnLhhbph:

blmdmmhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjmh hmTpmhmpdmh qnp&md ^brnm^mh pmTmpmlmhnLpjmh qnp&hphbphg hmplmpjnLgbmmjhh pmTmpmlmhnLpjnLhh nLhh mnmhgpmjhh h2mhmlnLpjnLh: uh 2mpp mhmbumqbmhbph 4bp[nL&nL-pjnLhhbph mpTjnLhphbpp gnLjg bh mm[hu, np hmplmpjnLgbmmjhh pm^mpm-ImhnLpjmh qnp&hphbpp ^mpn^ bh mp^jnLhm^brnnpbh [nL&b[ mj^ ^h^hpQ: <mplmpjnLgbmmjhh fm^mfmlmhnLpjmh qnp&hphbphg ^bpmpm2^n^m^mh qnp&mnnyp ^mpn^ bh lmmmpb[ ^bmmpjmh ^n^dhg hpmlmhmg4n^ hmplm-jhh U Sm^umjhh fm^mfmlmhnLpjnLhhbpp, Jmuhm^npm^bu' IppnLpjmh, mnnTgm^mhnLpjmh, bhpmlmnnLg4m&phbph n[npmhbpnLd hpm^mhmg^n^. ^brnm^mh Sm^ubpp, ^brnm^mh pjnLgb hm^mfmqp^n^ nL^^mlh U mhnL^T.m-lh hmp^bpp:

^brnm^mh Sm^ubph dbg mdbhmdbS rnbum^mpmp nLhbh unghm-

[m^mh h^mumhbph U lbhumpn2m^hbph 4pm lmmmp4m& Sm^ubpp, ^pmh hmgnp^nLd bh w2^wmw4.wp5h U m^pmhphbph nL 6mnmjnLpjnLhhbph Sbnp-pbpJmh qSn4 lmmmp4nT Sm^ubpp: blmdmmhbph mhhm^mumpnLpjnLhp 4bpghh bp^nL rnmuhmJjm^h Qhpmgpmd ^h lpb[ tm^mh ^n^n^nLpjnLh: b^m-JnLmhbph mhhm^mumpnLpjnLhp phmpmqpn^ Shhhh qnp&mlhgQ mdbhmgm&p gnLgmhh2h mp5mhmqpb[ t 2009 p4mlmhhh' 0,355, hul p4mhmh[mjhh qnp-Sm^hgh hp mdbhmgm&p gnLgmhh2h mp5mhmqpb[ t 2006 U 2020 pp.1 7,6:

b^mJnLrnhbph mhhm^mumpnLpjmh 4pm hmplmpjnLgbmmjhh pm^mpm-ImhnLpjmh mq^bgnLpjnLhQ qhmhmrnn^ Jn^b[h mpTjnLhphbpp gnLjg bh mm^u, np b^mJnLrnhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjnLhQ h4mqbghnLJ bh ^brnm^mh pjnLgbhg mnnTgm^mhnLpjmh U IppnLpjmh n.nprnhbpnLJ lmmmp4m& Sm^ubpp, ^b-mm^mh pjnLgb hm4mpmqp4m& m^ghqmjhh hmplh &m4m[hbpQ, bplhp dmmp qnpSmS qpnum2p2h^hbph ph4Q U mh4mhmlmh <LU-h: blmdmmhbph mhhm-4mumpnLpjnLhQ db&mghmd bh ^brnm^mh pjnLgbhg spmJmTp4nT. r|.pmdm2-hnphhbph 6m4m[Q, ^brnm^mh pjnLgb hm4mpmqp4m& b^mdrnmjhh hmplh Sm-4m[hbpp U qpm^4m6hbph ph4Q:

b^mJnLrnhbph mhhm4mumpnLpjmh 4pm hmplmpjnLgbmmjhh pm^mpm-ImhnLpjmh qnp&hphbphg mdbhmdbS ^pm^mh mq^bgnLpjnLhh nLhbh ^brnm-lmh pjnLgbhg IppnLpjmh U mnnqgm^mhnLpjmh n.nprnhbpnLJ lmmmp4m& Sm^ubpp: MppnLpjmh n.nprnnLJ lmmmp4m& ^brnm^mh Sm^ubpp ^b^pbph [m4mqnLjh ugbhmph H-b^pnLd 2026 p4m^mhhh blmdmmhbph mhhm4mumpnL-pjrnhp ^h4mqbghbh 0.3485 rnn^nun4, hul mnnTgm^mhmlmh Sm^ubpQ1 0.1581 rnn^nun4:

Oqmwqnpö^wö qpw^wbnLpjmfa

2. «<wplbp|i dwu|ib» « opbbfQ, 14 wn|p|iLh 1997 p.:

3. «<wumwmwqp^wö 46wpbbp|i dwu|ib» « opbbgp, 7 hnLL|iu|i 1998 p.:

4. «^wpqbg^wö hwpl|i dwu|ib» « opbbgp, 5 hnLb|iu|i 2000 p.:

6. « Hwftw^wpnLpjwb 2021-2026 p^wlwbbbp^ öpwq^pp, N 1363-U npn2nLd, 18 oq.numnu|i 2021 p.:

7. « <wjwumwb|i ung^WLwlwb ^wmlbpp U wqpwmnLpjnLbQ, 2018 p.:

8. « <wjwumwb|i ^h^wlwqpwlwb mwpbq.|ipg, 1993-1994 pp.:

9. « <wjwumwb|i $|ibwbuwlwb 4|i6wlwq.pnLpjnLb, 2008-2020 pp.:

10. « $|ibwbubbp|i bw^iwpwpnLpjnLb, « n|bmwlwb pjnLgb^ Iwswpdwb i[bpLnLÖnLpjnLb, 2008-2020 pp.:

11. « Swpbqhpß, 2004-2020 pp.:

12. Aaberge, Rolf, Anthony B. Atkinson and Jorgen Modalsli, On the measurement of long-run income inequality: Empirical evidence from Norway, 1875-2013.

13. Dollar David and Aart Kraay, Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of monetary economics, 50.1, 2003.

14. Dollar David, Tatjana Kleineberg and Aart Kraay, Growth still is good for the poor. European Economic Review, 81, 2016.

15. European Commission, Impact of fiscal policy on income distribution, Report on Public Finances in EMU 2017.

16. Gbohoui W., Lam W. R., Lledo V. D., The great divide: Regional inequality and fiscal policy. International Monetary Fund, 2019.

17. Gunasinghe, Chandika et al., The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?., Journal of Policy Modeling, 42.2, 2020.

18. Hoeven R., Income inequality in developing countries, past and present //The Palgrave Handbook of Development Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2019.

19. Kalwij, Adriaan and Frederic Vermeulen, Labour force participation of the elderly in Europe: The importance of being healthy, 2005.

20.Kuznets Simon, Economic growth and income inequality. The American economic review, 45.1, 1955.

21. Lakner Christoph and Branko Milanovic, Global income distribution: from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession. The World Bank Economic Review, 30.2, 2016.

22. Mackenbach Johan P., Willem J. Meerding and Anton E. Kunst, Economic costs of health inequalities in the European Union. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 65.5, 2011.

23. Martinez-Vazquez, Moreno-Dodson, Vulovic, The impact of Tax and expenditure policies on Income distribution: Evidence from a large panel of countries, International Center for Public Policy, April, 2012.

u"U4nnS"bSbuuq-hSn^3nKb 25

24. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Education at a glance 2G1G: OECD indicators. Paris: OECD, 2G11.

25. Piacentini, Mario and Chiara Monticone, Equations and Inequalities: Making Mathematics Accessible to All. PISA. OECD Publishing. 2, rue Andre Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, 2G16.

26. Woo, Bova, Kinda, Zhang, Distribution consequences of fiscal consolidation and the role of fiscal policy: What do the data say? IMF Working Paper, September, 2G13.

ГАЯНЕ АВАГЯН

Доцент кафедры макроэкономики АГЭУ,

кандидат экономических наук

АЛИК ТОРОСЯН

Магистрант образовательной программы АГЭУ

«Макроэкономический анализ»

Влияние налогово-бюджетной политики на неравенство доходов населения в Республике Армения.- Неравенство доходов характерно для всех экономических систем. Рыночный механизм перераспределения доходов и даже их централизованное регулирование не может устранить это неравенство, поскольку равное распределение доходов не только не ведет к социальной справедливости, но и ослабляет стимулы к труду и стремление к обеспечению высокой производительности труда. Более того, различия в способностях, образовании и подготовке, профессиональном вкусе, риске, владении имуществом являются существенными факторами возникновения неравенства доходов в обществе.

В статье анализируется влияние налогово-бюджетной политики на преодоление неравенства доходов. С этой целью сначала были прокомментированы исследования, проведенные в этом направлении разными экономистами, затем изучено нынешнее состояние неравенства доходов в Армении, изменения фискальной политики за последнее десятилетие. Разработана модель, позволяющая оценить влияние фискальной политики на неравенство доходов, сделаны прогнозы на дальнейшую динамику использования отдельных инструментов фискальной политики, их влияние на неравенство доходов на ближайшие пять лет.

Ключевые слова: неравенство доходов, бедность, налоги, бюджет, фискальная политика JEL: P46, G23

DOI: 1G.52174/1B29-G2BG_2G22.2-9

GAYANE AVAGYAN

Associate Professor of the Chair

of Macroeconomicrs of ASUE, PhD in Economics

ALIK TOROSYAN

MA Student of ASUE Educational Program «Macroeconomic Analysis»

Impact of Fiscal Policy on Income Inequality in the Republic of Armenia.- Income inequality is characteristic of all economic systems. The market mechanism of income redistribution, and even their centralized regulation, can not eliminate this inequality, because equal distribution of income does not only lead to social justice, but also weakens incentives to work and the desire to ensure high productivity. Moreover, differences in ability, education and training, professional taste and risk, ownership of property are significant factors in the emergence of income inequality in society. The paper analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on overcoming income inequality. For this purpose, first researches done by different economists in this field were commented, then the current state of income inequality in Armenia, the changes of the fiscal policy during the last decade were studied. A model has been developed to assess the impact of fiscal policy on income inequality, the future course of certain fiscal policy instruments, their impact on income inequality for the next five years.

Keywords: income inequality, poverty, taxes, budget, fiscal policy JEL: P46, 023

DOI: 10.52174/1829-0280_2022.2-9

ВЛИЯНИЕ НАЛОГОВО-БЮДЖЕТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ НА НЕРАВЕНСТВО ДОХОДОВ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ АРМЕНИЯ Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Авагян Гаяне, Торосян Алик

Похожие темы научных работ по экономике и бизнесу , автор научной работы — Авагян Гаяне, Торосян Алик

IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

Текст научной работы на тему «ВЛИЯНИЕ НАЛОГОВО-БЮДЖЕТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ НА НЕРАВЕНСТВО ДОХОДОВ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ АРМЕНИЯ»