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VALENTINA SCHENSNOVICH. GEOPOLITICS IN THE CASPIAN REGION / / The review was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: Caspian region, geopolitics, security, legal status, problems, threats and challenges, hydrocarbon raw materials, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, the U.S., Turkey, China.
Valentina Schensnovich,
Research Associate, INION RAS
Abstract. The Caspian region has always been in the limelight of researchers. It is a hub of the interests of many countries working on oil-and-gas deposits. Primarily, it is the "five" - Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran. At the same time the region also draws the attention of the United States, Turkey and China.
The disintegration of the U.S.S.R in 1991 and the emergencece of new sovereign states on the Eurasian continent have resulted in the formation of geopolitical regions with its own problems and threats. One of such places is the Caspian region. The international expert community devotes much attention to its examination. This is due to its rich deposits of hydrocarbon raw materials and convenient transport routes along the North - South and East - West axes. Huge deposits of oil are an object of exceptional attention of world business tycoons. This explains the striving of the United States, EU countries and Turkey to increase their economic and political influence in this region. The Caspian basin resources are of great interest for the rapidly growing Asian market, where China is playing the main role.
1. M. Dzhantaleyeva. Strategic Challenges and Security in the Caspian Region in the 21st century // Socio-political and historical and cultural aspects of present geopolitical situation: materials of international conference of the 10th Scientific-educational Forum. Moscow, 2017, P. 299-304.
M. Dzhantaleyeva, PhD(Politics)/ Astrakhan State University. Due to its geostrategic position, as well as economic, political and ecological factors the Caspian region is of great importance to the Russian Federation, including for ensuring its national security. Russia as the successor of the U.S.S.R. and a regional power of the Caspian basin is trying to preserve its influence there, taking into account its energy and geopolitical factors. The author of the article emphasizes the need to establish the boundaries of the Caspian region from the point of view of international law. First, a state bordering on the Caspian Sea, no matter how big, is a regional subject. Secondly, countries which do not border on the Caspian Sea, but are close to it and can by right exert an influence on the international situation on the sea are also the states of the region. In the narrow sense of the word it is only near-Caspian countries -Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran that are regarded the states of the region. In a broader legal and geopolitical sense the Caspian region includes only those countries whose geographical position and policies exert a considerable influence on the laying out and building of oil-and-gas pipelines, other transport communication lines, and on the whole situation in the region. These are China, Turkey, Georgia, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Going over from the determination of the region to the key problems of security in the Caspian basin, the author notes that for over twenty years already the outstanding problems of the Caspian region include:
- the unresolved character of the international status and regime of the Caspian Sea;
- energy security, problems of transportation of Caspian energy carriers to world markets;
- ecological security, inimitable ecosystem of the Caspian Sea, which should be preserved;
- military security, great interest on the part of certain EU countries and the United States in the processes taking place in the region, including the attempts to control the matters of military security.
The legal status of the Caspian Sea has not been established until today. The absence of a clear-cut legal definition of national belonging of the oil-and-gas structures of the Caspian basin between the Caspian states causes prolongation of interstate disputes. This circumstance is viewed as a serious political risk and this is why it contains the drawing of investments in Caspian hydrocarbon deposits. Thus, the author writes, in the long run the region may become one of the serious exporters of oil, and because of this it is quite clear why the Caspian states have been unable to agree on this and other problems connected with it.
The key factor largely determining the state and development of the economic potential of the Caspian region is the hydrocarbon resources which are crucial for the progress of the region, and at the same time a source of challenges of all kinds. In any case, the author emphasizes, it is the energy factor that will be the determining one in any situation in the Caspian region during the next few years.
At the close of the last century it was believed that the region held second place in the world in oil reserves and third place in gas deposits. Suffice it to mention that the additional oil reserves may reach more than 31 billion tons. (All the same, this figure is several times smaller than the prognosticated figures related to the Persian Gulf deposits).
M. Dzhantaleyeva notes that the role of the oil resources of the Caspian basin for the countries of the region differs. For example, as Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are concerned, the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian basin are an important
development factor of their economies and the main source of the budget revenue. For Kazakhstan, oil mining and gas extraction are not of decisive importance, but there are quite a few other well-developed economic branches. As to Russia and Iran, oil mining and gas extraction in the Caspian basin are not of primary importance, but they are interested in influencing the direction of their transit via their territories.
Speaking of the energy security of the Caspian region, it should be noted that there is a looming danger of an ecological disaster. As a closed water reservoir, the Caspian Sea has a fragile ecosystem, and despite considerable natural resources is liable to attenuation. Already now, due to an extensive economic development of the coastal states with excessive oil and gas mining, militarization, as well as climatic and other natural changes, the ecological conditions of the Caspian region demonstrates a growing tendency toward worsening.
In its geographical and geostrategic position the Caspian region occupies a specific place in the system of international relations. Due to this reason the region is considered important enough in the political and military-strategic spheres. In the processes of various kind going on in the Caspian region a direct or indirect role is played by the foreign forces in the person of the United States, the European Union, China, Turkey, and other countries. All of them regard the Caspian region an important strategic area and an object of their interests. It is a rare case in world politics when two axes - "North - South" and "East - West" -come together in one strategic zone simultaneously. What's more, the main actor and the most important link is the United States, which believes that control over the hydrocarbon deposits of the Caspian region will at the same time mean control over its economic and political development. The hydrocarbon reserves of the region are of less importance for the United States and its NATO allies than its geostrategic position as a springboard giving a possibility to expand their zone of influence and thus encircle and weaken such strategic rival as China, and regional rivals -
Russia and Iran. This, in turn, means the emergence of new threats and challenges for the countries of the Caspian region. The author writes that the Caspian region can easily be turned into the ground suitable for provoking events like the "Arab spring" or Ukrainian "EuroMaidan." All the more so, the West is dissatisfied with the political regimes in the Caspian region. They all are potential aims for the west to stage new "color" revolutions there with a view to creating more loyal and manageable regimes. The factor of "color" revolutions is a serious threat to security and stability in the Caspian region.
Thus, the conclusion made by M. Dzhantaleyeva is that the Caspian region contains an entire range of mutually connected problems which cannot be resolved to this day due to opposition and mutually exclusive interests of the Caspian states themselves. Actually, the region is a hub of negative tendencies retarding the process of ensuring and protecting the national interests of the Caspian states.
2. A. Nogmova. Geopolitical Prospects of Modern Russian Policy in the Caspian Region // Vestnik of Diplomatic Academy of Russia's Foreign Ministry. Russia and the World. Moscow, 2017, № 4 (14), P. 84-95.
A. Nogmova, PhD(Politics) (Diplomatic Academy, Russia's Foreign Ministry). She regards the Caspian region as one of the most important geopolitical centers connecting Europe, Asia and the Middle East. In the last decade of the 20th century and at the beginning of this century the Caspian region took firm positions in the international agenda: thanks to its geographical situation and resources the region draws the attention of many leading states, including western countries and the United States. The unique position of the Caspian region as one of the leading oil-and-gas centers and its geographical situation make it also a center of regional geopolitical disputes and arguments whose significance goes far beyond the framework of the Caspian states themselves and regional political arguments.
The author considers important the problem of determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which could take into account the economic, political and military interests of all coastal states. The ultimate regulation of the status of the Caspian basin would solve problems of their national security, definite regime of the use of all natural resources, and contribute to cooperation between the regional states in the ecological and hydrological undertakings, and ensure the security of the oil and gas pipelines stretching along the sea bottom. The just regulation of these problems requires a consensus of the partner-states, for their approaches to the problems of the regions differ. Being at the crossroads of world civilizations and advantageous trade routes, the Caspian region remains a center of vitally important interests of Russia, the West and the Muslim world. Without establishing a strategic balance of forces, as the author of the article thinks, the region may remain an unstable geostrategic area for quite some time. In the past decade the region became the venue of negative processes: international terrorism, religious extremism, national separatism, poaching, illegal arms transportation, and drug trafficking.
The gradual drawing of new actors (China, European Union, United States) in competition, and the growing problems of the region calling for solution aggravate the military-political situation in this part of Eurasia. The regional states are trying, through the militarization of the Caspian Sea, to put the geopolitical situation in the region under control.
The Russian Federation is facing the need to react to new regional challenges in the Caspian basin connected with the active penetration of outside actors in the Caspian region. Great hopes are placed on the 5th summit of the Caspian states, which is expected to solve disputed issues of the region. For this reason the conflicts between the outside actors in the Caspian region are exacerbating, and their geopolitical interests are clashing already in nearby regions - the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus. In recent years many experts have outlined new approaches to resolving the Caspian problems, emphasizing that
Russia should better analyze regional problems and work out strategic tasks. The importance of this region is reflected in the Concept of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, the draft Convention on the status of the Caspian Sea, the Naval Doctrine of the Russian Federation up to 2020, and other documents,
At the present stage Russia is faced with a number of problems in the Caspian region calling for speedy solution. The most effective and acceptable solution will be through a close strategic interaction and cooperation between all Caspian states. In the past decade five concepts of Russian foreign policy have been evolved. The last one, of November 30, 2016, points to a special importance of observing the universal principle of solution and equal; and indivisible security conformably to the Euro-Atlantic, Eurasian, Asia-Pacific, and other regions. Attention is centered on network diplomacy presupposing flexible forms of participation in multilateral structures with a view to effectively searching for solutions of common tasks. Special mention is made of Russia pursuing a course aimed at the comprehensive development of cooperation with Kazakhstan, Iran and other Caspian states. Thus, Russia's policy is aimed at solving three basic strategic tasks:
1. Protection and strengthening of its positions in the Caspian region.
2. Preservation of stability and support of security in the region.
3. Promotion of inter-regional cooperation of the Caspian
states.
The author of the article notes that Russian foreign economic and geopolitical course toward the Caspian states is quite acceptable and feasible along with the observance of the principles and tasks outlined in the Russian foreign-policy concepts. At present the Caspian Sea connects the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan are situated on its shores. This century the control level of one or another country over the fuel and energy resources and means of
their transportation and protection determines the role of a given state in the preservation of its geopolitical positions in the region.
Proceeding from contemporary history, Russian foreign policy in the Caspian region is determined by several stages:
• 1st stage (1996-1998) - support of limited presence in the region;
• 2nd stage (1996-1998) - determination of directions of foreign policy and return to the region;
• 3rd stage (1999-2000) - working out of new basic approaches to mutual relations with the Caspian states and consolidation of bilateral relations, transformation of Russian policy, taking into account changed alignment of forces in the region;
• 4th stage (2000-2002) - determination of constructive foreign policy aimed at ensuring reliable security of the country, multilateral and bilateral cooperation with participants in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS);
• 5th stage (2002-2017) - realization of direct and constructive interaction with the countries of the Caspian region on determining the legal status and security of the Caspian region (conferences and meetings, 1st-4th summits of the Caspian states).
In 2003, Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan came to uniform opinion concerning the principle of dividing the Caspian Sea bed, and considering the sea surface common. This decision was reached as a result of a compromise of three countries. Azerbaijan stopped to force the division of the Caspian Sea into sectors, although it did not abandon this idea, and Russia softened its approach, having agreed to divide the deposits in the sea. In 2007, at a summit in Tehran several premises were adopted on a peaceful character of the use of the territory of the Caspian basin and non-admission by the Caspian or other states of using these or other territories for aggression against any countries. The main subject of discussion at the Baku summit in 2010 in was security. The determination of the political and legal status of the Caspian Sea depended on solution of the questions connected with
security. The main result of a meeting of the presidents of the Caspian states at the 4th Caspian summit in Astrakhan (2014) was a political statement which laid down the basic principles of international security, as well as interaction on the Caspian Sea and its delimitation.
As far as solution of territorial disputes is concerned, it is suggested to use the existing principles and standards of international law by mutual agreement of the sides involved. By the official documents on the results of the negotiations of the "five" the size of the exclusive economic zone is fixed (25 miles) for the first time, which the coastal states may claim. The remaining sea surface is left in the common use for shipping and fishing.
Russia is interested in developing the riches of the Caspian Sea, which may help ensure energy security and greater currency gains to its budget. This is why Russian interests in the Caspian region boil down to the preservation of access to the resources of the region and preclude the penetration of foreign influence in it. Apart from that, Russia is concerned over the problem of using the mineral and biological resources of the Caspian Sea. Its further development will contribute to Russia's economic progress and make the region an important link in the system of economic ties. In order to use the advantages of Russia's geographical position and its greater role in the world economic system it is necessary to develop in a planned way the Russian international transport corridors, which answer its domestic and international economic interests. The most important of them is the "North - South" corridor: Northern Europe - Russia (Caspian Sea) - Central Asia -Iran (Persian Gulf) - India. The use of this direction for international cargo transportation, as compared with the transit via the Suez Canal, saves much time and money
Indeed, for many centuries the Caspian basin has been a major link in transport communication system, connecting parts of the Eurasian continent along the North - South and the East - West directions. The strategical status of the Caspian basin answering the interests of the five coastal states is a decisive factor in opposing
Western policy, and the United States' policy above all, which has declared the Caspian region a zone of its vital interests.
The modern economic and political development of the Caspian region leads to the realization of the idea of determining its geopolitical center, which could coordinate and consolidate the geopolitical process for solving all timely problems. The author of the article emphasizes that Russia would wish to have this center on its territory. The Russian Federation has close historical and cultural connections with other Caspian countries, which fact largely determines its great influence on the Caspian region. Russia is a participant of eight geopolitical regions: North-European, East-European, Caucasian, Central-Asian, Far-Eastern, Pacific and Arctic.
Confessionally different regions of the Caspian area (Slav-Orthodox Christiana and Turkic-Muslim) can form stable units of civilization.
3. S. Chernitsyna. Geopolitical Specific Features of the Caspian Region: Range of Scientific Research: Economy and Management // Togliatti, 2017, Vol. 6, № 3(20), P. 421-423.
One of the basic geopolitical features of the Caspian region, S. Chernitsyna, post-graduate student of the Russian Diplomatic Academy, writes is that it is a connecting link in the North - South direction (Russia - Persian Gulf), which is responsible for the gas and oil supply to European markets. The Caspian region is a sort of a crossroads of several energy-transporting arteries, which are very important in providing the economies of Western countries with energy resources. This is why control over oil-and-gas pipelines is of primary importance to the United States and the European Union.
The disintegration of the U.S.S.R. has resulted in the formation of several independent states in the Caspian region -Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. However, these pipelines have remained under the control of Russia, which became the legal successor of the Soviet Union. This circumstance has placed its certain former republics in energy-transport
dependence on Moscow, because the existing transport routes do not give these newly-formed states the right to control and manage the transportation of hydrocarbon resources independently. Thus, the main task of the Caspian countries during the first years of their independence was to create a pipeline system, which would be part of the East - West energy corridor, bypassing Russia.
The problem of transportation is an urgent one in the relations between states, both in the given region and outside it -the European Union, the United States, and China. The United States paid much attention to the Caspian region during its involvement in the operations in the Middle East in the 2000s. At the time the region was a zone of energy security for the U.S. "strategy of national security." Later, the key vector switched over to military-political interaction.
The position of the Caspian region is strategically advantageous and answers the U.S. geopolitical tasks, namely increasing American influence in the region and weakening the influence of such states as Russia and Iran in the region. Besides, Washington also sees a threat in the growing interest of China in the region As a result the U.S. concept has changed and now envisages an expansion of military-technical cooperation with Caspian countries within the framework of the "Caspian Guard" program. Several projects are also implemented to develop oil deposits on the Caspian shelf within the period between 2018 and 2022.
And so, the energy and transport arteries in the East - West and North - South directions crossing in the region are one of the key geopolitical features there. It should be noted that rivalry for control over the Caspian energy resources in the present picture of the world is one of its key features, especially because, in the view of most analysts, the mining of hydrocarbon resources will go down in the nearest future. This is why the Caspian region rich in oil and gas is of great interest to many geopolitical actors as a source of these resources. One of the key features of the region is that so far its legal status has not been determined and finally agreed on. Some countries regard the Caspian Sea "a lake," others
view it as "a sea." This problem has been discussed in the current political agenda ever more frequently after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. One of the strictest positions in the legal aspect has been taken by Iran, which did not join the UN Convention of 1982 on the Law of the Sea; this is why in its legal formulations the Caspian Sea is a "lake." Accordingly, Tehran would like to divide the Caspian Sea shelf into five identical (20%) sections between the five coastal states; the other suggestion is to use the entire surface of the sea jointly. Meanwhile, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan would like to divide the Caspian Sea by the middle (modified) line, as a result of which Iran will have only 13 percent of the water surface, and Kazakhstan - 29 percent, for example. Tehran is against such principle of solving the legal dispute.
The attempts to solve this dispute have been made since the time of the disintegration of the US.S.R. and the formation of new states. However, the common positive trend chosen, and international agreements and protocols already signed have not yielded positive results so far. Thus, in 2016, during a meeting of the foreign ministers of the "Caspian five" a satisfactory decision on the draft convention of the legal status of the Caspian Sea was not reached, although the parties reached consensus on most issues. Decisions on the remaining ones were postponed to the Caspian states summit in 2017. It should be noted that although the Caspian states have not reached a decision on the legal status of the Caspian Sea so far, they have solved the key questions unanimously. In 2014, at the Astrakhan summit the presidents of the Caspian states declared their joint decision not to allow the presence of the armed forces of non-regional powers in the Caspian region.
The unresolved legal question on territorial division, as well as a proper definition of the Caspian Sea itself entails a multitude of geopolitical risks, which are connected with the presence of resource deposits disputed between Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran. A greater risk of a potential conflict is due not only to the absence of the legal status of the Caspian Sea and presence of disputed oil and gas deposits, but also to the active militarization
of the region. Practically all Caspian states are increasing their military might in the region and bolster up the naval forces. The problem of military cooperation with third countries, which are not related to the region, seems rather controversial. For example, today there are two groups of states which assess differently military cooperation in this region with other countries. Iran and Russia are categorically opposed against any military presence of third countries, primarily the United States, in the Caspian region; Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are ready to accept foreign aid in the militarization of the water reservoir on the conditions offered by third countries, and can even agree to deployment of these countries' military bases on their territory.
Thus, the author of the article concludes, the sum total of geopolitical specific features of the Caspian region, especially those as the presence of energy and transport arteries connecting the North and the South and the East and Europe, great deposits of hydrocarbons, unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea, as well as the question of territorial affiliation make this region a possible venue of the clashes of interests of global geopolitical actors. Moreover, these specific features characteristic of the Caspian states, like irremovability of the powers that be and a number of domestic problems result in a high threat of the forced change of the ruling regime, that is, a "color revolution" with a view to bringing a loyal political force to power. And the nearness of seats of tension, such as Syria, creates a high level of terrorist threat.
4. S. Morozov, I. Savchenko. Socio-Political Security in the Black Sea - Caspian Region in the Context of Realization of National Interests // Socio-political and Historical-cultural Aspects of Modern Geopolitical Situation: materials of an international scientific conference of the 10th Scientific-educational Forum. Moscow, 2017, P. 311-314.
A new alignment of forces in the international arena depending on the positioning of the political actors, who offer their projects of political interaction and influence in the international
arena is one of the main sources of a geopolitical threat to Russia. This is said by research associates at the Volgograd State University - assistant professor S. Morose, PhD(Politics), and assistant I. Sachiko. The socio-political security of Russia largely depends on the situation at a regional level. In this context the role of one of the key regions in the system of socio-political security -Black Sea - Caspian region rich in hydrocarbon resources, is growing rapidly. The main sphere of rivalry between the world geopolitical actors in this region is political control over the transportation corridors of oil and gas.
The confrontation between the Russian Federation and western countries over the construction of oil-and-gas pipelines connecting the Caspian region with the Black Sea concerns the entire southern region of Russia. The traditional list of problems of the Black Sea-Caspian region security and the development of transport-and-energy communications, solution of local conflicts, formation of regional security and cooperation systems has become longer for it now includes new factors: growing terrorist threats, ethnic and confessional tension, greater migration flows, etc. All this engenders the growth of radical fundamentalist sentiments and creates a favorable ground for attempts to settle controversial problems by force and acts of terror. The globalization of antiterrorist struggle and a change of the U.S. policy toward Russia may entail a change of Russian policy in the context of regional processes.
Among the factors of the growth of ethnic and political tension are geographical and socio-economic disproportions between various parts of Russia. They worsen interethnic and ethno-political situation.
The Black Sea - Caspian region draws close attention of many states, including Iran, Turkey, the Middle East and Balkan countries, as well as the United States and China. The region is a zone of competition and confrontation between leading world powers. The South of Russia is the most vulnerable link of the Russian post-Soviet system: armed conflicts periodically flare up
and the potential threat of their emergence constantly exists there. This is due to the geopolitical position of the Black Sea - Caspian region, its material and natural resources, the economic and sociopolitical development level, the cultural level of its population, etc.
The NATO countries headed by the United States uphold the thesis about the need to realize a collective model of socio-political security with the main orientation to the military-technical might of the bloc; the national strategies of these states examine the variant of interference in the internal affairs of other countries under the guise of protection of one's own national interests. Russia as one of the influential world actors upholds the need to implement the system of political security relying on such universal organization as the UN and its Security Council. For the implementation of the security system in the Black Sea - Caspian region Russia has evolved a collective security model of ensuring regional security on the basis of cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Conclusion
The rich hydrocarbon resources, crossing energy and transport arteries, and at the same time the indeterminate legal status of the Caspian Sea, the strategic position of the region, as well as a high probability of "color revolutions" in certain Caspian states - all this creates a potential threat to the national security of Russia. The study of the geopolitical specificities of the Caspian region makes it possible to determine the interests of global actors, which is an important matter nowadays. The United States and the European Union are the main actors in the region at present. The processes going on there exert a certain influence on Russia, inasmuch as in recent years, after the crisis in Ukraine and the entry of Russia in the struggle against international terrorism in Syria, relations between the West and Moscow have worsened considerably. The study of the geopolitical specific features of the
Caspian region makes it possible to reveal the key points of opposition and threats to the national security of Russia.
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