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is one of the most important strategic tasks of the Russian state in respect to the North Caucasian region. The future of the North Caucasus, as well as the Russian Federation as a whole, depends on the successful solution of this task.
"Nauchnaya mysl Kavkaza," Rostov-on-Don, 2012, No 1, pp. 30-34.
Rafik Usmanov,
Political analyst (Astrakhan State University) MODERN POLITICAL PROCESS IN THE CASPIAN REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (View from Moscow)
The most important factor of recent time is the world economic crisis which greatly influenced the geopolitical situation of certain states and the European Union as a whole due to migration and ecological and demographic problems in a number of the European and Middle East countries.
Today the entire world follows the events in Western Europe connected with the integrity of the European Union and the "chain revolution" in certain African and Middle East countries. However, it is too early to complete our analysis of the development of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa as yet. Apart from radical shifts in these regions, the world has come across the outside military intervention with a view to supporting one of the sides in internal conflicts there. Unfortunately, this interference is becoming commonplace. Besides, it can be "sanctified" by an amorphous resolution of the UN Security Council. One could agree with the conclusion made by certain authoritative analysts of the situation in the region that such mass actions, which began in Tunisia, then Egypt and
then spread to other Arab countries, have not been organized by any political force, including the Islamic force. Apparently, the reasons for these events lay much deeper, and are connected with political problems of globalization and a change of the vector of the geopolitical forces of the leading world powers.
At the same time we observe that the events in many countries of the Middle East and other states are not taking place properly, that is, according to a civilized scenario. Instead of assertion of democracy, instead of the protection of the rights of the minority, the ruthless destruction of the opponent and a coup take place, when the domination of one force is replaced by the more aggressive domination of another. Some forces are trying to realize the Libyan scenario in Syria. The efforts of the world community should be directed, first of all, to reaching peaceful reconciliation in Syria. It is necessary to stop violence in that country and begin a national dialogue without preconditions and foreign interference and with due respect for the country's sovereignty.
Old approaches and existing recipes of the analysis of the present situation do not give tangible results, and recommendations for the normalization and improvement of the situation in these countries are futile so far. It has now reached the state in which it will be impossible to resolve the present difficulties without taking serious or extraordinary measures. Today globalization processes become increasingly evident all over the world and directly bear on one of the strategic links between the North and the South - Russia and the Persian Gulf - as a source of supplying oil and gas to the markets of Europe, and the Caspian region is an important place in this respect. The Caspian basin is a fuel-and-energy treasure store of the 21st century, which has been thoroughly investigated and described by Russian and foreign researchers and analysts. Moreover, some authors
in their monographs often give Caspian oil a tint of geopolitical mystery, which makes it possible to exaggerate the significance of the Caspian region. They advertised the region as a safe fuel-and-energy paradise, as the "fuel-and-energy navel-cord of the West free from Russian influence. Numerous descriptions of the Caspian energy resources even led to the assessment of the Caspian region as the potential alternative to the Middle East.
The problems of the Caspian basis are not confined to the hydrocarbon subject alone. They are much more complex and multifaceted. The Caspian region has experienced many changes in its assessment, turning it from a Eurasian periphery into a dynamic geopolitical crossroads, which it became during major political upheavals. Such transformations have always been connected with Russia's geopolitical retreats and denuding of its southern borders. The exit of the Caspian region from the zone of Russian control each time turned it into a disputable supra-national unit, exacerbating the struggle for domination over it. It was precisely such events in the 20th century (first, the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917-1920, and then the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. in 1991) that induced western geostrategicts (first W. Churchill and then Z. Brzezinski) to see the territory of the Caucasus and Central Asia in the role of the soft underbelly of Eurasia, where Russia as the "pivotal continental state" proved to be the most vulnerable.
As to the oil-and-gas factor, the Caspian basin comes out not as an alternative, but rather as an energy addition, to the Persian Gulf, in the view of certain analysts. If regional criteria are used, these resources are of vital importance for the countries of the Caspian basin. The discovery of the Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak oil deposits on the Kazakhstan shelf and the South Ilotan - Osman and Dovletabad gas deposits in Turkmenistan has made Caspian hydrocarbons an important
part of the world fuel-and-energy market. For instance, the Kazakhstan Kashagan is one of the world's largest oil deposits discovered in the past thirty years. In the view of M. Bhadrakumar, the former Ambassador of India to Uzbekistan and Turkey, the Kashagan deposit has about seven to nine billion barrels of oil. And according to a statistical survey of the British Petroleum Company, gas extraction in Turkmenistan has increased by four times during the past decade, and that country has now become a bigger producer of gas than the Netherlands.
However, even if the hydrocarbon potential of the Caspian region can make it a more significant factor of the world's energy policy, it would only be possible through control over pipelines, which will bring the resources of the region to world consumers. This is why we agree with some of the analysts that the real significance of the Caspian basin consists not only of its fuel-and-energy potential, but also of its entire economic, transport and military-political opportunities. The border and transit-communication functions of the region continue to predominate. For many centuries the Caspian region has been the most important transport communication line, connecting parts of the Eurasian continent in the North - South and East - West directions.
The events in Iraq and the North Caucasus, the periodically exacerbated relations with Iran, Israel and the United States, the military conflict between Russia and Georgia are all the consequences of global processes and manifestations of the national interests of the leading powers of the world. All this is largely connected with and conditioned by the natural hydrocarbon resources in which the Caspian states are very rich, as well as the geographical position of the region, which is a crossroads of transport trade routes; besides the Caspian Sea is a unique biological resource. Apart from that, the migration processes going on in the region serve as a background of potential
conflicts which can change the geopolitical situation there in favor of certain interested states.
The Caspian basin remains one of the most important regions for the United States in its foreign policy, and the latter continues to carry on active attempts to gain priority positions there. But in doing this the U.S.A. often shows tendencies of a superpower nature. For instance, it continues to adhere to a double-standard policy toward Iran. The United States has lost a regime in that country which was completely oriented to America, and naturally, Washington was displeased that it was replaced with an authority independent from either West or East. This explained negative western propaganda against Iran so active nowadays.
The U.S.A. has repeatedly stated that it will use an "aggressive diplomacy" toward Iran. President M. Ahmadinejad in his letter to the U.S. President George Bush called Washington's foreign policy "hypocritical" and its assertions about protection of the interests of the world community "utterly false." At a UN session in September 2009 M. Ahmadinejad stated that it was impermissible that countries thousands of kilometers away from the Middle East interfered in the affairs of the region. The invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan was carried out under the false slogans of protecting security and fighting the production and sale of narcotic drugs.
The UN resolution No 1747 adopted in March 2007, which introduced a whole number of sanctions aimed against the nuclear program of Iran, is still valid. Bank accounts of 13 Iranian companies and 15 physical persons have been frozen. The resolution recommended that other countries should refuse to sell arms and grant credits to Iran. However, the effect of these sanctions is negligible. The means of bringing pressure to bear on Iran are limited. Russia and China do not support these sanctions. Besides, if adopted, these
sanctions may be violated by the companies interested in the Iranian market. Apart from that, even if they are fulfilled, they can easily be avoided with the help of smuggling. Iran is not threatened with the fate of Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. and NATO forces have bogged down.
The tough policy of the United States toward Iran and one-sided adoption of sanctions against private companies suspected of cooperation with Iran place European-American relations into a conflict situation inasmuch as the European Union is still interested in economic cooperation with Tehran. The problem of the application of the U.S. legislation outside the boundaries of the United States has time and again cropped up in European - American relations.
Naturally, today, too, the foreign-policy actions of the United States should be viewed and judged against the backdrop of the world geopolitical processes. For example, the United States is trying to pursue its policy of domination in the Caspian region through Turkey, which is a NATO member, which has close ties with Azerbaijan and Georgia and is the mediator between the West and the Trans-Caucasian republics. One of the aims of this policy is to diminish the influence of Iran as an enemy and reduce its role in the South Caucasus and the Caspian region.
Many strategists in Washington tried to convince the democratic administration of the 1990s that the strengthening of American influence in the Caspian region should be one of the main aims of American policy. A high official at the National Security Council asserted that the United States simply could not allow Russia (or Iran) to dominate the fuel-and-energy resources of the Caspian region because they were an important political instrument in dealing with Europe. The Caspian region was not only an important component of the energy security of the West, but also a reliable base in the changing
balance of forces in Eurasia, Asia and the Middle East. This is very important at the present time.
Russian political analysts define the Russian-Iranian relations as partnership with definite prospects. One could agree with the fact that Russia and Iran have certain disputable problems in the Caspian region. First of all, it is the problem of the division of the Caspian Sea bottom. It should be emphasized that the conflict of gas interests has an objective basis and is of no political character, just as the problems of the division of the entire Caspian Sea surface.
The Russian side has always come out in its relations with Iran and other states in the Caspian region from the position of a dialogue of cultures. Official Moscow has time and again stated its interest in the development of peaceful, good-neighborly relations. Russia does not believe in the effectiveness of sanctions. It protects its interests in the Caspian basin and avoids conflicts with Iran in the Trans-Caucasian region. It does not want an Israeli-Iranian war. Russia trades with Iran and is resolutely against any violation of the non-proliferation regime. It is always trying to minimize risks and to draw as much advantage as possible from the existing situation. Russia is also interested in good-neighborly relations with all states bordering it in the South. As to cooperation with Iran, Moscow prefers to work on joint civilian projects in the economy, culture, education and trade.
Iran has put forward an idea about a "strategic Tehran - Moscow alliance." Russia is well aware of the prestige and significance of 72-million-strong Iran and is doing everything possible to keep the regime of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapon and retain all positive elements in Russian-Iranian relations. These relations and the Russian position of a dialogue of civilizations concern the entire Caspian region, including such states as Syria and Libya. The Southern and Northern Caucasus as a component of the geopolitics of the
Caspian region are a territory of strategic importance for which an acute struggle is being waged by the leading powers in the world arena, because, apart from its rich natural resources, it is a crossroads of civilizations, a region which can ensure influence on a large territory of any country, or countries dominating in it. At the same time instability in the North Caucasus, for instance, means instability in a large Eurasian area, not only of Russia, but of other states which have economic, cultural and other connections with the entire Caucasus.
The broad range of all these problems is a subject of our investigations centered around the study of the political processes going on in the southern regions of Russia and connected with other territories which lie to the north of the Caspian region. It is necessary to investigate these processes, and also those of the influence of migration, demography, ecology and ethnopolitical conflicts on the geopolitical position of the Caspian states. It is also necessary to try to analyze and forecast the processes influencing the position of Russia and its further cooperation with other states in the world political arena. The timely character of this problem is substantiated by the exacerbated relations between the states of the Caspian region (for example, in their dispute over the division of the Caspian Sea surface and regional resources), as well as between world powers striving for control over the situation in the region.
It is quite natural that this problem is extremely timely and is actively discussed at various inter-regional and international forums. There is an extensive material collected by political analysts, sociologists and lawyers on the problems of the Caspian Sea and its region. As we have mentioned, the main spheres of research concern the problems of the division of the Caspian Sea between the states of the region, and also ecology, the Caspian Sea bioresources and
hydrocarbon resources in the region, transport corridors with an outlet to India, deployment of military bases in the Caspian region, etc.
Research associates of the center of political studies of the countries in the Caspian region at Astrakhan State University have prepared and published quite a few works. Among them "Geopolitics of the Caspian Region (View from Russia)," "The Great Volga Route: Its Past, Present and Future," "The South of Russia in the Parameters of Migration and Ethnic Conflicts," and others. At one of the latest international conferences on the Caspian region in the epoch of globalization discussing the problems, trends and prospects of international cooperation held in Astrakhan in September 2011, a thorough analysis was made of the prevailing situation in the region. The conference was attended by researchers and scholars from Moscow and Astrakhan, as well as from Germany, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Quite a few proposals were put forward on regional development and the protection of political, socio-economic and cultural security of this polycultural and strategically important region. It should be borne in mind that the continuing financial-economic crisis and frozen the conflicts near the oil and gas pipelines there create definite risks and dangers for the Caspian region possessing great oil and gas resources. This is why it is exceptionally important for the world community to study and cherish the historical experience of the Caspian nations which have evolved their real cultural and historical traditions of tolerance and political correctness over many centuries. This will, undoubtedly, serve the prosperous dialogue of cultures of the peoples of the region, and their positive experience may definitely become a standard of cultural and political behavior removing the threat of a conflict of civilizations.
Kaspiiskii region: Politika, ekonomika, kultura", Astrakhan, 2012, No 2, pp .12 -130.
