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It may be asserted that for the end of the XX century the republic experienced the stage of the multi-party system's formation. The party represented a rather significant and influential political force, which was able to ensure election of its candidates in the parliament and to uphold via them its drafts and decisions. By the end of the XX century, such parties were in the process of formation in Kabardino-Balkaria, and they were marked by a strong orientation to the leaders and a rather weak social basis. But one should be interested in creation in the republic of the efficient multi-party system with actually functioning political parties.
Fundamentalnye problemy prostranstvennogo razvitiya Yuga Rossii: Mezhdistsiplinarny sintez ",
R-na-D, 2010, p. 79-81.
S. Sushchy,
political scientist
THE RUSSIAN POPULATION IN THE REPUBLICS OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY
The national structure of the population is one of the most significant characteristics of any society, since it determines many features of its public-political, economic and social-cultural life, particularly of the poly-ethnic-cultural societies, and most republics in the North Caucasus are exactly such societies. And it is just owing to this fact it is necessary not only to fix the existing ethnic-demographic situation in each of them, but also to study its possible dynamics for the foreseen perspective.
For the last 30-40 years, the processes going on in this sphere show the original "problematic" feature of the project relating to ethnic-cultural integration of the North Caucasus into Great Russia through the
process of the Russian (and wider - Russian speaking) population striking root in it. From the beginning of the 1970s, its number in the macro-region started to reduce. Taking into account the positive index of natural reproduction of the Russian population at that time, the question is the migration outflow. It started in Dagestan. For the 1960s, up to 25 thousand Russians left the republic. For the 1970s, the emigration started to increase in Checheno-Ingushetia. Several thousand Russians left North Ossetia and Karachaevo-Cherkessia. As a whole, the outflow of the Russian population from the republics of the North Caucasus accounted for 90-100 thousand people for the 1970s and surpassed 110 thousand people for the last decade.
For the 1990s, the emigration of Russians acquired the unforeseen scales, becoming a rapid "evacuation" or even a flight. It is difficult to interpret otherwise the events in Chechnya and Ingushetia for the 1991-1993, when about 200 thousand people (mainly Russians) left the republics. According to the population census, about 25 thousand Russians lived in Ingushetia, and three years later (September 1992) only 10 thousand Russians lived in the Ingushi Republic. And the greater outflow of Russians and Russian speaking population characterized the situation in Chechnya.
The population census in 2002 confirmed the outcome of the "de-Russification" of both republics - about 20 thousand Russians in Chechnya (without federal servicemen) and 5-6 thousand - in Ingushetia. Many of them are old people, who are not able to change their place of residence. It is hardly probable that after hardships of two military campaigns they will change the place of their residence in the present relatively stable situation. Despite limited migration losses, the age structure of the Russian republican Diaspora promotes their constant reduction.
Dagestan is the third republic of the North Caucasus, where the ethnic-demographic processes objectively lead to complete de-Russification of the population. Both the natural reduction and the intensive emigration of Russians play their role in this process. The role of the latter factor was the most decisive for the post-Soviet period. The reduction of the Russian population in Dagestan for the period from 1989 to 2002 accounted for 45 thousand people: only 10 thousand people - the natural reduction, while 35 thousand people - the migration outflow.
For the period from 1995 to 1999 the migration attained its maximum: annually 4-6 thousand people left Dagestan. The liquidation in 1999-2000 of the separatist regime in Chechnya makes it possible to improve the situation in adjacent republics. The outflow of Russians from Dagestan is being reduced. For the first years of the XXI century it was marked by reduction 1.5-2 thousand people, but for the 20032005 it was characterized by 1.2-1.5 thousand emigrants. But still for the last years the size of migration exceeds the natural losses of the local Russian population. For the period from 2002 to 2007, the number of Russians in the republic reduced by 8-9 thousand people and accounted for 110 thousand people (105 thousand people excluding federal servicemen) by the year of 2008. Given limited scales of Russian ethnic presence in the republic, the specter of its actual evolution is very limited. Even, if the local power succeeds completely to stop migration of Russians (which is hardly probable), their share will reduce up to 3% by 2030. The share of Russians may reduce to 22.5%, if the present tempo of their emigration remains. This narrow diapason (2-3%) represents the common corridor of "chances" of the Russian Diaspora for the next two decades.
For the period from 1989 to 2002, the Russian population in Kabardino-Balkaria reduced from 240.8 thousand to 226.6 thousand
people. The total loss accounted for 14 thousand people, including 12 thousand people due to natural losses and only 2 thousand people as a result of migration outflow (in average, 150 persons annually), according to A. Dzadziyev. However, he mentioned the other number -0.8 thousand annual emigrants in another source. But in the beginning of the XXI century the scales of emigration reduced and the lower number of Russians was related to the natural losses. For the last years the annual natural losses of the republican Russian population reduced to 2-3% from 0.4-0.5% for the period from the middle of the 1990s to 2004-2005. However, the method of taking into account different ages testifies to a greater probability of the more rapid diminishing of the number of Russians for the next 10-20 years. It is connected with the age structure: the average age of local Russian exceeded 38 years (higher than the average index in Russia). In 2009, the total number of Russians in the republic may be accounted for 214-218 thousand people, according to the expert estimation. Actually, given any dynamic scenario, Russians will keep the second place in size after Kabardins as a significant ethic cultural component. However, the dominant share of the youth in the emigration flow leads to the gradual aging of the remained Russian population. Since a certain moment the rapid significant reduction of the number of the Russian population will take place.
For almost half of century (1950s-1980s) Russians constituted the most numerous ethnic group in Karachaevo-Cherkessia. As far back as 2002, they made more than one third of the population of republic's residents (by this index the republic was exceeded in the North Caucasus only by Adygeya). At the same time, the outflow of Russians from the republic was rather significant for the post-Soviet period. From 1989 to 2002, about 18 thousand people left the republic (the annual loss accounted for 1.5 thousand people). At present,
Karachaevo-Cherkessia surpasses other republics of the North Caucasus in terms of emigration outflow. Only the great concentration of the Russian population in the republic puts off the time of its "deep" de-Russification (comparable with the scenario in Dagestan) later to the next decades.
However, this prolonged time distance provides for probable essential changes of migration activities connected with a complex of factors, including ethnic-political and social-economic situation in the republic, the level of inter-national tension etc. The diapason of probable scenarios of numerical dynamics of the Russian population includes both rather pessimistic variants (a sustainable and rather significant reduction due to natural and mechanical losses) and more optimistic scenarios (for the next 10-20 years, reduction of the outflow of Russians, given a higher birth rate).
For the 1900s, the North Ossetia - Alania is characterized by a moderate (by estimates in the North Caucasus) migration of Russians: the annual outflow from 1989 to 1998 - at the level of 0.8-1.0 thousand people, which reduced to 0.7-0.8 for the period in 1999-2002. In total, the reduction of the Russian population was equally caused by the natural losses and the emigration. The limited outflow of the Russian population (and wider - non-title) from the republic remained in the period from 2003 to 2007. For this period of five years about 6.3 thousand people (mainly Russians) left North Ossetia. In other words, at present, the republic's annual loss accounts for several hundred Russian residents. This process is rather sustainable, A. Dzadziyev thinks. Thus, for the period from 2002 to 2009 the number of Russians might be reduced from 165 thousand to 153155 thousand people. In any case, their ethnic presence in the republic remains rather great.
Adygeya is the only republic in the North Caucasus, where Russians represent the leading ethnic group. It is significant that as far back as for the 1990s characterized by the upsurge of local nationalism Adygeya remained an attractive place for Russian migration. On the other hand, the experiments of the republican authorities aimed at the return to historic Motherland of descendants of mukhadgirs of the XIX century led to limited results (several hundred re-emigrants). The territorial place of the republic within the borders of Krasnodar krai (the center of migrants' attraction) supposes preservation of the flow of migrants from other regions of the RF in Adygeya. This inflow to a big extent of probability compensates the natural loss of the local Russian population, which may even increase its size comparing with the level of the beginning of the XXI century and keep the Russian population as a leading ethnic group for the longest perspective.
"Fundamentalnye problemy prostranstvennogo razvitiya Yuga Rossii: Mezhdistsiplinarny sintez", R-na-D, 2010, p. 244-302.
Parag Khanna,
political scientist (the USA) AZERBAIJAN:
THE CORK IN THE CASPIAN BOTTLE
The Caucasus is the place of meeting of Europe with the Eastern and Western Asia. The inscription in Latin left by Roman centurions demonstrate that Azerbaijan was located on the European border since the I century of our era, but later the Romans came back and declared that human being was unable to live under hellish conditions of Gobustan hills. You have to pass agreeable looking forests in the southern part of the Caucasus near the Georgian border and still more
