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Valeri Stepanov,
Cand. Sc. (Hist.), Senior scholar
of the N. N. Miklukho-Maklai Institute of the Ethnology
and Anthropology of the RAS
THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PICTURE
OF RUSSIA: THE RESULTS OF THE DECADE
Given the unfavorable demographic heritage and positive economic development of Russia for the first decade of the XXI century, a peculiar and unique social situation emerged in the country. Despite big increasing labor resources, the demographic aging and the lack of labor resources are felt in some social spheres of production. At the same time, compensating the appeared problem, the modern technologies and market mechanisms supplemented the productive efforts of the previous decades (including the Soviet time) and led the country to the general economic growth. The simultaneous rise of economic and social disproportions among the regions and the groups of the population contributed to a certain tension. In this context, a special role is plaid by myths of demographic and migration "danger", of extreme poverty etc. Undoubtedly, the emerged situation has a direct impact on the social-political processes, including elections, and in this way plays a significant role in history of the country. The results of demographic and social changes in Russia for the last decade are discussed below.
For the last two decades the problem of decrease of the population was subject to discussion, while worse prognoses comparing with statistical data were publicized. However, it should be taken into account that more significant economic and social consequences are caused not by the reduction of the population but by the structural demographic changes, first of all by the change of the age index of the country's residents.
The demographic aging is characteristic for Russia as a whole and for all its federal districts. It is displayed in a high share (over 1617%) of elders and a low share (up to 20%) of children and adolescents. The North-Caucasian Federal District is marked by a rather safe age composition of the population against the general background.
The highest level of demographic aging is characteristic for the densely populated Central, North-West and Volga Basin Federal Districts. These regions are marked by the conditions for the raise of social tension, since the rising density of the population, particular in city agglomerations, coincides with the growing deficit of young age people (children and teenagers) and further causes the deficit of economically active population. Therefore numerous internal Russian and international migrants will come there further.
At the same time, the skill to see the danger of social consequences of demographic aging should not cause panics. The demographic aging itself does not mean that economic and social activity of the population will be reduced by all means. The tempos of such reduction differ in regions depending on the quality of living conditions. The population with higher living standards possesses the longer ability for economic activities despite the age.
The index of real longevity shows that in 2010 the best data was characteristic for the North-Caucasian Federal District, where over 17% of people reach the age of 90 years and more. Despite some views, the
higher index of longevity is characteristic for the Central and the NorthWest Federal Districts (13%). The lowest level of longevity is characteristic for the population in the Far East Federal District (9.6%).
The official data on estimation of longevity of life after birth for the period of 2001-2009 correspond generally to the indexes of longevity in 2010. It shows the stability of demographic processes for the long-term perspective. Basing on the existing trends one should foresee the situation when the number of older aged people will decrease in the northern and eastern regions of the country and will increase in the central and southern regions. At the same time, the often mentioned load of dependents on the economically active population will, in essence, rise by lesser tempos, which will create condition to make judgments according to formal indications of the pension's age.
For the first decade of the XXI century the population of Russia continued to decrease. In 2010 comparing with 2001 the reduction of the population made up 3%. The population census in October 2010 registered 142 million 905.2 thousand persons on the territory of the country. It was slightly more than predicted.
The comparison of the contemporary population with the population of Russia twenty years beforehand shows that the reduction of the number of the Russian people made up 3.5-4%, i.e. 4.8-5.8 million for the whole post-Soviet period. The data does not justify the mass media deliberations about "annual decrease of the Russian people by one million". The maximum reduction of the population for the last decade was seen only in 2004, when the reduction accounted for 795.5 thousand people, while the loss further continued to diminish. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the mechanism of registration of actual population is still not perfect and that there are many examples of incomplete estimation of certain categories of people.
The official statistics of the size of the population demonstrate that the positive demographic trend appeared for the last three years. Although the population's decrease in Russia as a whole continues, the tempos of this decrease in some regions fell down, while the increase of the number of the population emerged in some cases. Such situation arises under conditions of special efforts exerted in the field of demographic policy, although the struggle against high mortality of able-bodied people, particularly of able to work men, is still not adequate. The partial improvement of the birth rate is connected also with the fact that numerous age groups at the procreation age of 2130 years were born for the period of the 1980s.
The migration growth thanks to increase of migrants from the republics of the former USSR played a great role in slower reduction of the number of the population. However, the quality of migration's registration does not let have adequate information. It is supposed that about one million people, who came from these countries, rest being not registered. If it is so, the positive trends in slower rates of the population's loss should turn out to be more evident that the estimates of the official statistics.
At present, for two decades the rise of the population is registered on the territory of the North Caucasian and the Ural Federal Districts. According to the official statistics, in 2010 the rise of population was seen in the Siberian Federal District, while the trend with the negative to zero diminish characterized the situation in the Central and Southern Federal Districts.
But the long-term trends are different. The statistics for the last decade shows the reduction of the number of the population in all federal districts. Only the North Caucasian District was characterized by the rise of the number of residents for the decade. However, contrary to daily view, it was not big and made +6.4% by the end of the period.
The three federal districts - the Ural FD, the Southern FD and the Central FD - are characterized by a rather favorable situation, since for the last decade the loss of the population, despite prognoses, turned out to be relatively small (up to the size of 3%). The fluctuations of the number of residents in these districts may be appraised as an unstable balance with the trend to diminution. The situation in these districts of the Federation differs to a great extent. It is different also as far as changes of the city and rural population are concerned: the Central Federal District is marked by higher stability of city residents. Other federal districts are characterized by the sustainable diminution of the population. For the last decade a rapid diminution took place in the Far Eastern and the North-Western Federal Districts.
The negative correlation of the birth rate index and the mortality index of the population in most regions of Russia is a long-term trend, which somehow changed for better in the period of two years. But for the period from 2001 to 2010 the natural increase of population was marked only in three federal districts (the North Caucasian, the Far Eastern and the Ural Districts). And only in the first mentioned district the index of increase of the population was essentially higher than zero. In other federal districts for the last decade the correlation between birth rate and mortality showed the diminution of the population. The highest tempo of diminution (without migration inflow) was characteristic for the most urbanized and old in terms of demography -the Central, the North Western and the Volga Basin Districts.
Given the positive demographic changes for the last two-three years, the negative situation in terms of birth rates, mortality and natural increase remained unchanged for Russia as a whole. According to official data, in 2009 the mortality was greater than the birth rate (by comparison of the born and died persons for 1000 people). The birth rate in this year made 12.4 per mil, while mortality was 14.2 per
mil. Correspondingly, the natural increase was negative at the level of -1.8 per mil. The maximum index in the country of natural increase accounts for +23.8 per mil (Chechnya), the minimum index makes the negative amount -10.5 per mil (Pskovskaya region).
The situation relating to the birth rate is different by regions. The highest birth rate is marked in the North Caucasian FD. Besides, a rather big birth rate is registered in the Southern, the Far Eastern and the Ural Federal Districts. For the last decade, the lowest indexes of birth rate were characteristic for the Central FD.
For the last decade, the indexes of different mortality were as follows: the biggest mortality was registered in the Central, Volga Basin and the North Western Federal Districts. A rather high level of mortality was characteristic for the South Federal District. The lowest indexes of mortality were given by statistics in the North Caucasian FD. However, it should be said that the official data about mortality based on registration of the corresponding events are characterized by mistakes connected with tardy presentation of accounts in the republics of the North Caucasus; therefore, probably, the level of mortality in the North Caucasian FD is higher, while the indexes of natural increase are lower to some extent than the official published indexes.
The tempos and sizes of mortality of the population before the age of pension are different in various regions of Russia. The highest level of mortality of able to work people is registered not in the Central FD (although the general index of mortality is marked by the highest level in the country) but in the Siberia and the Far Eastern FD, while in the European part of the country the mortality of able-bodied people is the highest in the North-Western FD. The level of mortality of the population at the age of being able to work is characterized by the lack of statistical data dependence on the size of medical services (or insignificant dependence). At the same time, there is a sustainable
dependence of such early mortality on the level and nature of illness, first of all, on the spread of pulmonary diseases (due to smoking), traumatism and poisoning, particularly alcoholic intoxication. The common viewpoint on dependence of mortality of able-bodied people on diseases of blood circulation is not justified, since these diseases are characteristic for the old people. Besides, the mortality of the able to work people to a large extent depends on the level of criminality, primarily on the number of crimes committed by the intoxicated people, who used alcohol or narcotics.
Thus, the early mortality of some people in Russian regions is the result of primarily unnatural causes due to the spread of ruinous habits (smoking, use of alcohol and narcotics). The higher level of medical treatment is actually in great need but it itself is unable to reduce radically the mortality index of able-bodied people.
There exists the direct connection between the spread of mortality of people as a result of suicides and mortality as a result of alcoholic intoxication. The mentioned long-term indexes exist in the same regions. At the level of federal districts the high levels of suicidal and alcoholic mortality are characteristic for the last ten years (and for earlier periods) for all northern and eastern federal districts. The lowest indications of such deaths are characteristic only for the North Caucasian FD.
The lower migration increase is seen in Russia for the last decade comparing with the first decade after disappearance of the USSR. The contemporary amount of mechanical increase occurred in the end of the 1990s: annually the number of migrants coming for permanent residence exceeds by 250-300 thousand the number of people, who return home. This balance has become particularly sustainable since 2007.
The spread of the migration increase is characterized by a great unevenness. The excess of the number of immigrants over emigrants is the greatest in the Central FD; the annual excess makes 120 thousand people. The North Western FD occupies the second place in terms of migration inflow, although it is four times lesser than the increase in the Central FD. The Ural FD occupies the third place. Actually zero migration increase is registered in the Southern FD and the North Caucasian FD. The Far Eastern FD and the Siberian FD are characterized by the negative migration flow.
A part of the international migration increase is spread rather unevenly. The main positive balance of the international migration is made by the Central FD, presenting excess of the people coming from abroad over the persons leaving the district approximately of 50 thousand people per year. The Volga Basin FD occupies the second place in the international migration balance: annually from 20 to 30 thousand people become new residents in the FD. At the same time, other federal districts are characterized by the low balance of international migration, and the North Caucasian FD is characterized practically by the meaning of zero.
As it is known, under the influence of mass media and some spoke-men of public opinion there were widely disseminated stereotypes about "a migration pressure" and "a change for the new population" allegedly owing to people coming from abroad. In reality, the inflow of new comers, including internal Russian and international migration, accounts only for 1.5% of the whole population (correspondingly, the migration balance is of lesser significance). Naturally, this indication has a bit greater significance in the sparsely populated eastern and northern regions, but over there the share of migrants in the population does not exceed 1.7-1.9% of the residents in
the corresponding federal districts. The share of the people coming from abroad in the whole population of Russia makes only 0.14%.
For the last decade, the share of foreigners among all migrants accounted only for 15.5% (without temporary migration). For the period of 2001-2010, this share decreased for the first half of the decade and further increased having attained the highest level in 2009 and 2010. By the end of the decade the share of migrants from other states increased up to 18% in the Central FD. This share increased insignificantly in other federal districts and even reduced in the Far Eastern FD.
As a whole for the decade the share of foreign immigrants in the total migration flow turned out to be the biggest in two federal districts - in the Southern FD (18%) and in the Central FD (15%). Out of other federal districts there should be mentioned the Ural FD marked by rather big number of foreigners among migrants (only 13%). This share was lesser in other federal districts (10-12%). The lowest share of foreign migrants coming to the RF (7%) was noted in the Far Eastern FD.
Thus, the inflow of migrants does not result in a significant renewal of the population in Russia, while the share of foreign migrants is small. There exits a rather widely spread opinion that the children of migrants will compose the main share of the youth at the child-bearing age. However, the known trends are different. Leaving aside details, it is necessary to define the share of children and teenagers among coming migrants. For the last decade, this share does not exceed 6% both in the total number of migrants and in the structure of the migration balance (the number of new comers minus those, who have left home). This number is insignificant. In separate federal districts the biggest shares of children and teenagers among migrants, who want to become residents, accounts only for 9% (in the Central, the Ural, the
Siberian, the Volga Basin and the Far Eastern FD). Correspondingly for the nearest decades, given the existing migration picture, the children of migrants coming from abroad as usual will not represent a significant part of the population in Russia.
The level of ethnic diversity of the population in various territories has not been studied. The researchers limit themselves with banal deliberations about "100 nations and nationalities" repeated since the Soviet time. The rosters of nationalities published in official sources relating to various regions, as a rule, contain similar numbers (for different ethnic entities). In big regions, like subjects of the Federation, and all the more the federal districts the number of nationalities is equal to the number of them in the country as a whole.
For the sake of comprehension of the diversity of the ethnic composition of the population in big regions the data of the population census below has been calculated according to the indication of poly-ethnicity. According to this indication, the ethic diversity of the population in the federal districts of Russia does not differ a lot except the North Caucasian FD. On the one side, this fact dethrones the myth about "ethnic homogeneity" of the Russian central regions and, on the other side, reflects not the so big, comparing with other Russian regions, ethnic diversity of the population in the South of Russia.
As a whole, the level of poly-ethnicity in Russia is rather big (index - 7.4). However, the ethnic composition in various federal districts is not similar, but this index in all of them is lower than the level of poly-ethnicity (10.5) in the North Caucasian FD. A rather significant level of poly-ethnicity is characteristic for the Southern FD and the Far Eastern FD (about 5). The level of poly-ethnicity in other districts is characterized by the small diapason of 3-4. The sustainable territorial appropriateness in Russia is as follows: the ethnic diversity of the population is higher in the southern regions of Russia, attaining its
maximum in the Caucasus, as well as in the direction to the east. A certain growth of ethnic diversity is characteristic also for the European North of the country.
According to the data of the population censuses in 1989 and 2002 (up to present the data of the census of 2010 is not available), the poly-ethnic composition of the population remained almost unchanged in the North Caucasian FD. However, the ethnic diversity increases by the most rapid tempos in the Southern FD. The Central FD occupies the second place in the process of rise of poly-ethnicity. The ethnic diversity in other districts actually remained unchanged, while it reduced in the Far East.
The disseminated myth of a special role of foreign migrants in the change of ethnic composition of the population in the Russian regions is not corroborated. The estimation of the correlated dependences reveals the fact that the increase of poly-ethnicity to a larger extent is connected with the average long-term indications of internal Russian migration and to a smaller extent depends on the indications of international migration.
The information on the level of the population's education in Russia is not regular and comparative in terms of statistics. The most complete picture may be constructed only by the data of population censuses. However, since the Russian Statistical Office has not estimated the regional information on the level of the population's education by regions on the basis of the data of the All-Russian Population Census of 2010, the author has used the data of 2002. In addition, for the sake of contemporary analysis of the higher education the author used the data on the number of students of all higher education institutions (state and private) in 2009. The number of students was correlated with 1000 residents. It became evident that the data of the census of 2002 and the mentioned information on the
number of students demonstrate the same situation in all federal districts. The higher share of the people with higher education is characteristic for the Central FD and the North Western FD. The relatively lesser (lesser than the average share in the country) share of the students in the higher education institutions in the Southern FD and in the North Caucasian FD is compensated by the indications of the education level, which is higher than the average level in the country, since a certain number of residents of these districts receive higher education in other regions of Russia.
The regional economic leaders and outsiders are described below on the basis of data on the GNP by the end of the decade. The indications differ a lot by the federal districts: the maximum index (the Central FD) by 17 times exceeds the minimum index (the North-Caucasian FD). The leading place is occupied by the Central FD producing over one third of the GNP. Further with the lesser share in production of the GNP are placed the Volga Basin FD (16%), the Ural FD (14%), the Siberian FD (10%) and the North Western FD (10%). The minimum size of the GNP is characteristic for the North Caucasian FD (2%) and the Far Eastern FD (4.5%).
Moscow and the Moscow region are the leaders in the Central FD. Although the best indices of Moscow by many times exceed the region's indices, it should be taken into account that the production capacity and human resources of the Moscow region are realized (often purely legally) within the administrative limits of Moscow. For the sake of the discussed research it should be adequate to consider the level of GNP production in the capital and the adjacent region as a united entity.
The Volga Basin FD lacks the absolute leader in GNP production, since within the district there are several economic locomotives: Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Samarskaya region, and further - Permski krai and Nizhegorodskaya region, followed by
Orenburgskaya region and Saratovskaya region. Correspondingly, as a whole, the federal district is characterized by the relatively even social-economic situation without big territorial disproportions. Such situation makes the Volga Basin FD as one of the most successful and socially homogeneous federal districts in Russia.
The territorial disproportion is characteristic also by the GNP production per head as a whole in the country and particularly in federal districts. As it was mentioned, the Ural FD is the leader in the GNP production per head, while the second place in this respect is occupied by the Central FD, which is followed with rather big lessening by the North Western FD and the Far Eastern FD. It should be stressed that all other federal districts possess the per head indices in the GNP production, which is lower than the average level in the country. It is evident that such disproportion increased further for the post-crisis period. The lowest index of the GNP production is characteristic for the North Caucasian FD.
At the same time, within the low efficient production of the GNP in the North Caucasian FD and the South FD there are the least differences in the districts. Naturally, the Stavropol krai is the leader in the GNP production per head. Nevertheless, North Ossetia, Dagestan and Karachai-Cherkessia play a lesser role marked by a relatively small lag. The lowest index of the GNP per head of the population is seen only in Ingushetia. The data on the Chechen Republic, probably, lacks complete certainty but even this information is nearer to the low indices of Ingushetia than to the indices of other regions of the district; such is the picture in the North Caucasian FD as mentioned above. Hence, the North Caucasian FD as a whole is the territory, which will be the source of outflow of labor force to other federal districts.
There is much talk on social consequences of different levels of employment and unemployment in Russia. A lot of conjectures about
negative role of migration are spread. Nevertheless, the existing perceptions (and myths) about tension in labor market caused by migration are not justified. The comparison by subjects of the RF of the indices of the deficit/existence of vacancies of the unemployed and of migration increase reflects a direct dependence of the migration flow on exactly the level of existence of jobs. In case of the lack or the scarcity of jobs the migration balance either has a trend to the zero or is characterized by the negative index. In other words, migrants go to the place, where jobs are available.
The level of unemployment, at least its registered part, accounted for the end of 2009 and 2010 correspondingly 2.84% and 2.10%. It means that the level of the registered unemployment for the last two years was not high and remained as a whole unchanged with some trend to decrease.
The regional picture of this index has the same logic: for the period of 2009-2010 the distribution and size of the calculated level of unemployment by federal districts rest almost unchanged. One factor attracted attention: the accelerated positive dynamics of reduction of unemployment in 2010 comparing with the previous year in the Ural FD (which was connected with improvement of this index in Tyumenskaya region, primarily, owing to rise of employment in the industries directly or indirectly connected with the oil and gas complex).
Given the low level of the registered unemployment in the country as a whole, and, consequently, the high level of registered employment, one may see the trend to greater employment in center and in the south of Russia, while the index of unemployment showed its growth. As a whole, in the European part of Russia the problem of registered unemployment seems to be "softer" then in the Asian regions. Going to the east, the indices of registered unemployment rise
and attained higher (still not high) levels in the Far Eastern FD. A definite exclusion in the country destructing completely this appropriateness is the North Caucasian FD, where even the registered unemployment (avoiding the indices estimated by wider criteria, particularly methods of the ILO) reaches really big dimensions comparing with the level of unemployment in the less developed countries. In 2009, the level of registered unemployment accounted for 10.7%, and in 2010 - 8.6%. Even if correction of the number of economically active population, according to the data of the population census of 2010, is more extensive and, correspondingly, the estimated level of unemployment in this federal district is a bit lower, nevertheless, the level of unemployment in Russia will reach a record figure also from the point of view of international comparisons.
The unemployment in the North Caucasus is the result of not so much of any international crises, as of the banal lack of the skill to "alleviate" the social situation known since the Soviet time. The constant repetition of remark on "excessive labor force" in the North Caucasian republics actually covers the defects in governance and in long-term planning adapted to this region. The more so, that the question is the problems in terms of inadequate employment only in two regions (one region in the Soviet time) - Chechnya and Ingushetia. In 2010 the level of registered unemployment in these republics was characterized by the startling indices: in Chechnya - 42.3% and in Ingushetia - 21.4%. A year earlier the situation was even worse: in Chechnya the registered unemployment made 54.1% and in Ingushetia - 22.3%. For the previous period the data on employment of the population in these republics was not published at all under pretext that the corresponding estimation of employment had not been adequately organized.
At the same time, with due account of high indices of registered unemployment in these two regions, it should be said that there exists some doubt concerning these indices. The question is that Chechnya and Ingushetia since the period of 2002-2003 up to present have been subject to the targeted federal programs of economic and social development. Besides, the economy of both regions almost completely exists by receiving donations from the federal budget. Correspondingly, any indicated demands of additional budgetary inflows, mildly speaking, are made by various participants of the process of restoration and development of both regions.
The repetition in this case of the fact that in Chechnya and Ingushetia the birth rate is high and allegedly a great unemployment is unavoidable can not be regarded as an exhaustive explanation. It should be reminded that in Tuva, where the level of birth rate is also high, the index of registered unemployment made 6.2% in 2009 and 5.5% in 2010. Of course, this level of unemployment exceeds twice the average Russian level, but it is not the twenty times' excess like in Chechnya and the ten time's excess like in Ingushetia. In Dagestan, marked by a high birth rate, the registered level of unemployment (3.2%) is closer to the level of Tuva and not to the level of Chechnya and Ingushetia. In the Republic of Altai, which is characterized by a high birth rate and where there is only one city and there are no elements of social and industrial (including energy) infrastructure, nevertheless, the level of registered unemployment made 3%, exceeding only half as much again the average index in Russia.
Many publications in mass media and declarations of representatives of the law enforcement bodies demonstrate that the aggravation of employment problems has a direct impact on the scale of criminality. However, as became evident, the rise of the unemployment level for the period of crisis in 2008-2010 did not result in the rise of
criminality in the country as a whole. There was no sustainable dependence of criminality's indices on the changes of employment or unemployment levels in various regions.
At the same time, the employment problems, if they are not solved for a long period of time, form a long-term unfavorable social situation, which actually promotes the spread of deviant and unsocial forms of behavior and, as is shown by statistical comparison, have a considerable influence on the level of criminality. For instance, the comparison by regions of the level of criminality, socially being a significant index, shows clearly as follows: the high share of unprofitable enterprises exists simultaneously with the high level of criminality. At the same time, this interdependence is not fully characteristic (or lacks inter-dependence) in some territories, particularly, in the North Caucasian FD and in the Ural FD.
The index of insolvent enterprises demonstrates the sustainable interconnection, if it is correlated with the level of teenagers' criminality. Only in the North Caucasian FD (in this respect being the sole territory in the country) the teenagers' criminality does not depend on the sphere of employment. Probably, as far as this territory is concerned, one should speak about peculiarities of regional culture and existence of efficient mechanisms of control over teenagers. However, in the North Caucasus the traditions of "deterrence" produce no results relating to criminality of the adults. The comparison of the share of insolvent enterprises with the indices of the share of grave crimes in the whole number of criminal acts shows the evident interconnection of these two phenomena will be evident also in the North Caucasus and in all other federal districts of Russia.
According to the statistics of 2010, the level of criminality in the country was reduced, despite the economic crisis. One year beforehand, the number of registered criminal acts for each thousand of residents
accounted for 21.1 per mil, while at present this index was reduced to18.4 per mil.
The above reduction took place almost in equal proportion in all federal districts leading to the meaning of certain artificiality of made estimates. Some analysts were in a hurry to say that this decrease was a direct consequence of reduction of the number of labor migrants. Avoiding the controversial discussion on this matter, it is worth saying that in case of direct "regulation" of the criminality level by migration flows the picture of reduction of the criminality level was different in various federal districts and more so in the regions, since the flows-outflows of migrants differ by geographic matter.
For the last decade the situation of criminality in the federal districts of Russia was as follows. The greatest number of criminal acts per head of the population is committed in eastern regions of the country, while the lowest level of them - in the South FD and the North Caucasian FD. At the same time, the highest share of grave and especially grave offences - assassinations and terrorist acts is registered in the North Caucasian FD.
For the sake of estimation of preconditions of social tension in the population it should be necessary to consider the criminal acts committed as unsocial or affective actions, particular criminal acts committed by the people being intoxicated by alcohol or narcotics. A great number of criminal acts committed in affected state and the gravest offences (assassinations and great injury for health) demonstrate a grave social situation.
As a whole, in Russia the reciprocal connection between the number of grave crimes and crimes committed in the state of alcoholic intoxication is not typical. However, this connection is quite evident, if the statistics of crimes committed in the South FD and the North Caucasian FD are left aside. At least in the Volga Basin FD and in all
eastern federal districts the picture of "drunk" criminality to a large extent is similar with the spread of such crimes as assassination and attempted assassination.
The social anxiety is also high in case of often committed unlawful actions in public places. The statistics of hooliganism reflects similar picture. The estimation of coefficients of correlation shows that there is no significant reciprocal connection between the crimes qualified as hooliganism and the criminality of teenagers. It attests that in Russia as a whole hooliganism and street violent offence is "a lot" of the adult contingent of criminals. For the last decade, the maximum indices of hooliganism statistics are characteristic for the Ural FD, since this region is the leader in terms of number and share of such crimes. In terms of hooliganism the second place is occupied by the Central FD and by the North West FD, while the North Caucasian FD and the Volga Basin FD occupy the third place.
The criminality of teenagers marked by its large scale spread also is a significant public trouble maker. In Russia the criminality of teenagers in a large extent is connected with the crimes committed in the state of alcoholic intoxication (it should be noted that statistics do not demonstrate any connection between teenagers' crimes and crimes in the state of narcotics intoxication). The criminality of teenagers is particularly high in the Siberian FD and in the Far East FD.
It is common knowledge that the registered criminality in the North Caucasus is characterized by one of the lowest indices in the country. Probably, the real situation in this federal district is worse than it is registered. The usual indices of criminality in adjacent regions create doubts concerning low indications about criminality in some regions of the North Caucasian FD. According to the law enforcement bodies, in Chechnya the level of criminality in 2010 made 3.6 per mil for a thousand residents. The same low index in Dagestan was 3.9 per
mil. In Ingushetia it was 4.7 per mil. At the same time, in Karachai-Cherkessia the index was 9.1 per mil, in Kabardino-Balkaria it was 10.8 per mil, and in Stavropolski krai - 13 per mil. The observation of the situation shows that the territories with the population of many thousands have always the level of criminality over 5 per mil.
The data about grave criminal acts leads to the analogous conclusions on the inadequately exact fixation of criminal acts. The fact of a grave criminal act is more difficult to hide out from statistics, especially if it concerns assassination. By the index of the number of assassinations in the total number of crimes is just the North Caucasian FD occupies the first place in Russia, and the greatest share of assassinations is fixed exactly in "the less criminal" Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan. And what is more, the indices for these republics represent the absolute "record" in the country leaving far behind the most "criminal" regions. Significant is the following: in each federal district of the country in 2010 the number of assassinations decreased in the total number of registered crimes, but in the South FD the share of assassinations increased to some extent, while the share of assassinations rose significantly in the North Caucasian FD. Evidently, the statistical paradoxes emerged as a result of the regular concealment from statistics of small unlawful actions and other less grave criminal acts.
Given contemporary conditions of life in Russia, particularly the lack of a wide stratum of the so-called middle class, the share of indigent population is the general index of material well-being of the population taking with due account of the regional distinctions. First of all, the category of indigent population includes the people with sustainable (for some years) money income at the level lesser than the subsistence wage. According to this index, for the last ten years in Russia the indigent population accounted for 22.3% of the total
population, and this index in most cases lacked essential differences in the federal districts. As a rule, in the federal districts the share of indigent people accounted for 15-25% of residents. The maximum and higher indices of this share are characteristic for the Siberian FD and even more for the Far Eastern FD. Against the general background the most unfavorable indices are characteristic for the North Caucasian FD, where more than one third of the population has the income less than the subsistence wage. In some regions of this FD the situation is more strained (in Ingushetia the share of indigent people accounts for 63% of the population, in Chechnya, according to incomplete data, this share is the same or even greater). For estimation of incomes' differentiation it is accepted to confront the aggregate of cash income of the less well-being 18% and of the most well-being 18% of the total population. This confrontation shows that for the last decade the smallest distinction in incomes, at least according to the official data, is characteristic for residents in the North Caucasian FD, where cash income of "the rich" exceeds by 6.5 times the cash income of "the poor". The biggest differentiation of incomes is characteristic for residents of the Central FD and the Ural FD, where the incomes of the first group exceed by 9 times the incomes of the latter.
The mentioned picture of the property stratification, however, does not show the degree of urgency of existing issue, since it does not mean that the less well-being people should indispensably be poor. For the general evaluation of the social tension in the sphere of material well-being one should apply the index of deviation of the less well-being people from their share of incomes. In particular, let us make the supposition: should the total cash of individual people per head of the population correspond to the accepted level of material well-being, the deviation from this level of any category of the population to the direction of lesser incomes fact testifies to the inadequate well-being.
Thus, the above presented research estimated the deviation of the long-term cash incomes of 20% of the less well-being population from the level of 20%. The estimates show that the level of income of the lest successful part of the population of the Central FD is lesser by 14.5% and, being at the lowest level compared with the theoretically equal level of income, is socially unjust and the most critical from the point of view of material well being. The analogous category of the Siberian FD also gets low incomes, and the deficit of incomes makes 14% there. In other federal districts the deficit of incomes of the less successful part of the population is only a bit less and accounts for 13%, while the least deficit of incomes is in the North Caucasian FD. The latter shows that the public-political rhetoric concerning the North Caucasus as the poorest part of Russia does not completely correspond to the reality.
To corroborate this point of view one should present the data on the ten years' trend of the growth of real cash incomes. For the period from 2001 to 2009, such incomes were growing by outstripping tempos exactly in the North Caucasian FD, where annual average cash incomes of the population rose by 15%, while in other federal districts, including the South FD, the growth of incomes made 9-10%.
Although there are no generally accepted methods, it is possible to see differences in the level of social comfort. As a rule, the data on the roster of living conditions provided for the population is used for the sake of analysis. It seems that these "objective" indicators should be supplements by the parameters, which may be interpreted from the point of view of public perception. These parameters shall include the rise of consumption prices in comparison with incomes of consumers. For instance, in one region the incomes of the population are high but they grow more slowly comparing with the rise of prices; in another region the rise of incomes leaves behind the rise of prices, although initially the incomes of the population are not high: in the first case the
social tension may be higher than in the second one. For the last years, the rise of prices for food products (minimum list) outstripped considerably the rise of cash incomes in most federal districts of the country. The biggest gap was seen in the Far Eastern FD. The rise of process for consumption goods outstripped greatly the rise of incomes of the population in the Ural FD, in the North West FD and in the Central FD. Naturally, the situation in the sphere of prices and wages was not attractive for the population of these territories, and the lack of social comfort was quite evident. The situation is slightly better in other federal districts; however, the higher rise of prices for consumption goods was not great only in the Volga Basin FD. The only federal district, where real cash incomes of the population were not behind but, quite on the contrary, rose by accelerated tempos relating to consumption goods' prices, was the North Caucasian FD. It shows a great potential of social development and of perspectives of the social climate's improvement in the North Caucasus.
"VestnikRossiiskoy Natsii", M., 2011, N 4-5, pp. 188-211.
Azamat Buranchin, Cand.Sc. (Hist.) (IGI of ANRB, Ufa) CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY OF BASHKORTOSTAN UNDER CONDITIONS OF NATIONAL IDENTITY CRISIS
The start of the painful change of the power elite in the Republic of Bashkortostan and also completion of the profound transformation of contemporary society in the republic was marked in summer of 2010 by assignment of R.Z. Khamitov to the post of the Head of the region. It seems that we see the termination of the long historic cycle started for
