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16
V. Kolosov,
political scientist
RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL DISCOURSE
ON THE NORTH CAUCASUS AND PUBLIC OPINION
The geopolitical culture is the culture of knowledge about the outside world and interpretation of the state's role as a subject of international activities. It is as well the whole complex of institutions and cultures engaged in reciprocal action of public forces elaborating foreign policy. As geopolitical imaginations the experts call images and causal perceptions of a certain social group or of the whole population of the country about the place of the country (ethnic cultural group) in the world, as well as the attitude to external forces. The geopolitical perception of the world is a normative mental political map of the world or the region combined with perceptions on acting within them forces, which have impact on foreign policy. The geopolitical vision is being formed subject to influence of numerous factors: family traditions, education, personal experience, particularly in size and configuration of mastered space (espace vecu), publicity, literature and art, cinema, mass media, which create and disseminate a set of myths, stereotypes and conceptions about national history and territory. These conceptions are being spread during the geopolitical discourse, synthesizing certain information on international affairs attached to the territory. The geopolitical discourse is initiated and maintained more often by mass media, which serve the interests of the determined groups of the elite. The social-political differentiation of society and conflicts among interests of various social and ethnic groups give rise to differences in perceptions of the country's territory. People in a different way see the place of different parts of the country in its economic and political space. Each geopolitical culture and tradition
represents itself a system of more or less integral and mutually connected views not only about the external world and international affairs but also about the territory of the state and the internal policy.
In Soviet times, the North Caucasus was perceived as an internal region, known primarily by the resorts of the Black Sea shore and the Caucasian Mineral Waters. It was considered also as one of the principal granaries of the country and as its "ethnographic museum". After disintegration of the USSR these perceptions radically changed. The North Caucasus became the arena of acute national clashes and war in Chechnya; at present, it borders the districts of bloody conflicts in former neighboring Soviet republics. At present, the image of the North Caucasus is associated with such notions as "war", "terrorism", "violence". They were used by 42% of Russians, who responded to the questions of Foundation "Public Opinion" (FOM). The responses of only 8% of the questioned persons shared positive associations - "sea", "mountains", "good weather", "rest", "resorts". These perceptions are shaped mostly by mass media, primarily by TV. According to A.G. Druzhinin, over 70% of information about the South Federal District, contained in state national TV channels is characterized by negative substance.
The presented below work aims at determining the place of the North Caucasus in the contemporary geopolitical discourse and geopolitical perception by residents of the region itself. Do they consider the whole territory of the North Caucasus to be an integral part of Russia or do they suppose a probable separation of some part of it? Why this region is so significant for Russia? In which direction the situation tends to develop? What are the most important factors, which determine this development? What political conclusions should be made in relation to recent events in the region and what should be done
in this respect? What are the region's perspectives from the point of view of representatives of various geopolitical cultures and traditions?
The official geopolitical discourse
The principal argument in the official discourse (table 1) consists in the assertion that Russia simply may not allow itself "to leave" the North Caucasus or some part of it. V. Putin in his interview to representatives of foreign mass media repeatedly stressed that the federal forces' actions in the North Caucasus were determined not only by the need to suppress the hotbed of terrorism but also by the threat, which is presented to the whole Russian state by uncontrolled Chechnya. Aggression de-facto of independent Chechnya against Dagestan in 1999 and originating from it uninterrupted subversive actions against neighboring regions clearly demonstrated the terrorists' aim of creating a Muslim state "from sea to sea", hostile to Russia. The social chaos, caused by it, could spread to other Muslim regions of the country and imperil existence of Russia. Therefore each genuine patriot of the country should wage a relentless struggle against separatism and terrorism.
The second argument is as follows: the great majority of peoples in the North Caucasus do not perceive themselves to be outside Russia. The joint struggle with the federal forces of peoples of Dagestan against Chechen terrorists proves it clearly. The referendum, organized in the Chechen Republic and attended by foreign observers, showed that 80% of its voters supported the union with Russia. The transfers from the federal budget account in average 74% of the budgets of the republics in the North Caucasus.
Table 1
Substance and structure of the official geopolitical discourse
"Grammar" of discourse Discourse
Why the North Caucasus is so important for Russia? Characteristic of contemporary situation in the region. The question is the existence of the Russian state. Chechnya is not only the seat of terrorism. "If we let create a fundamentalist state from a sea to sea, this state will spread to other regions of compact settlement of Muslim population of Russia...Any country would have protected its territorial integrity".
In which way does the situation change? The situation gradually normalizes: the number of terrorist acts has greatly decreased, the economic situation improves.
What external factors and international events represent the consequences of its development? Terrorism in the North Caucasus is a part of the international terrorist threat. Russia is in forward positions of struggle against the international terrorism. However, the West tries to use double standards in appraisal of the situation in the North Caucasus and in other regions, for instance, in the Balkans.
What reasons contributed to creation of this situation? The active forces and reasons. There exist both internal and external factors of the situation's development. The social-economic situation in the region (poverty, unemployment, corruption, distrust in the authorities) is of great significance.
Why this situation has emerged and who is responsible for it? The international terrorist international. The difficulties of the post-Soviet transitory period.
What political conclusions should be made? The political interests and conclusions. The compromises with terrorists are impossible to be. The territorial integrity of the country is the pre-condition for its flourishing, while the patriotic duty of each citizen is its protection.
Which measures should be taken? To consolidate the law enforcement system, to promote economic development, to create the middle class.
The third argument of the official discourse is as follows: the actions of the federal forces against Chechen separatists represent a part of struggle against the international terrorism. Some years ago the
attack of Al-Qaeda terrorists against American cities served as a proof and the basis of a new official Russian geopolitical discourse, which presented the struggle between "civilized" and "barbarous" forces, including the Chechen terrorism, as a foundation of the world policy and showed that Russia occupies an important place among civilized countries in this fight. At present, it is stressed that official delegations of the Council of Europe note improvement in the situation of human rights in the North Caucasus. At the same time, V. Putin repeatedly said that the West used double standards in appraisal of the situation in the Caucasus, in Russia and in the regions, kept under its control - in Bosnia, Kosovo and others. It concerns not only human rights. The western countries take matters to proclamation of state independence of Kosovo and simultaneously accuse Russia of support of the self-proclaimed republics in the post-Soviet space.
The fourth argument of the official discourse - improvement of the situation in the North Caucasus is used as a justification of rightness of the official political course. D. Kozak, the presidential representative in the SFD, told V. Putin that for the last two years the number of terrorist acts was decreased three times and that the general level of criminality calculated for 100 thousand residents is 40% lower than the average national level. There are evident signs of the improved economic situation. For the first half of 2006, the rise of industrial production exceeded by 7.9% the average level in Russia. The sociological surveys fix the rise of social optimism. The amnesty, granted by the State Duma, induced many terrorists to lay down their arms. Many their leaders, including Sh. Basayev, were liquidated. The president of Russia mentioned several causes of the situation, shaped in the North Caucasus, including, first, the external support of radical movements. The large-scale actions would have been impossible without it. Second, poverty, unemployment and corruption are the
breeding ground of terrorism. It proceeds from the said that it is necessary by all means to consolidate the law enforcement system and its bodies: no compromises with terrorist are admissible, since it is impossible to buy them. The law enforcement bodies should act efficiently, rigidly and in a well coordinate way against those, who took arms in their hands, threatens life and health of Russian citizens and integrity of the Russian state. At the same time, V. Putin supported the targeted state efforts aimed at economic development of the North Caucasus: ".the economic rise and creation of the middle class". "The question is not the financial means", stressed V. Putin, we have them not only in Stabilization Fund. The question is their efficient usage". In September 2006, V. Putin declared creation of the Commission for improvement of the social-economic situation in the SFD. There exists a tendency to exaggerate investment risks in the North Caucasus: the threat of terrorism decreases. The negative image of the region hinders inflow of investments.
The stress in the official geopolitical discourse on positive trends contradicts somehow the information on events in the North Caucasus by official publication "Rossiyskaya Gazeta"; out of 63 annual publications 52 of them were devoted to terrorist acts, activities of the law enforcement bodies, perspectives of the amnesty etc. This information evidently did not promote change of image of the North Caucasus in the eyes of Russians. In 6-7 publications some criticism of the authorities was contained. Former president of North Ossetia A.S. Dzasokhov indirectly accused the present political regime in existence of industrial depression in the republics of the North Caucasus, which created a particular difficult situation for Russians and forced many of them to leave the North Caucasus. "The mono-national republic is characterized by closeness, self-isolation, self-admiration, it is a distorting mirror of history, inability to see distant horizon", noted
A.S. Dzasokhov. According to him, the basic reason of the problems in the region is not only the economic situation and corruption but also the lack of the uniting idea, of education and ideological work. Informing about the first address of the president of Chehcnya to the people and the parliament, "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" marked that A. Alkhanov rigidly criticized the federal program of regional restoration, comparing it with a narcotic needle. The corrupted officials are interested in this channel, bringing money from the center. A great part of this federal assistance is used in neighboring regions. Chechnya has to feed itself, and the economic development may be ensured not by oil extraction and oil refining but by agriculture, by small and middle business.
The geopolitical discourses of the opposition
The left discourse describes the situation in the North Caucasus and its role for Russia as a whole in the same words as the official discourse: this region is vitally important for the country, and its loss would mean the first step in disintegration of the Russian state. However, unlike the representatives of the official discourse, Communists think that the war in Chechnya has not been finished and that the risk of another large-scale conflict grows fast. The probable result of Chechnya coming independent will be the same as in case of Kosovo: emergence of "client" state with a big American military base, supported by foreign financial means, directed by gangsters and fighters, transporting narcotics, sex slaves and military contraband, deeply involved in separatist terror along the Russian border. The are two causes of this dangerous situation: external and internal. First, the Anglo-American imperialists are liable for it, traditionally using the slogan of national self-dependence to include new territories in their sphere of influence. Supporting talibs in Afghanistan in their struggle against the Soviet army and fighters in Kosovo against Serbs, the USA promoted formation of Muslim fundamentalism . They are interested in
further extension of its zone of economic and financial control primarily over oil resources, in disintegration of the Russian Federation as one of the few states, which may withstand its dictates. Representatives of the left and national-patriotic discourse provide many citations from works of Z. Brzhezinski, like his significant slip of the tongue about the fact that many small ethnic enclaves were still (!) in power of Russia. The double standards are deeply incorporated in western political thinking. It is stressed in the left discourse: the West always regards itself to be right, since, in its mind, created by western countries political system represents the crown of democracy and brings to the world freedom and flourishing. The USA and England supported disintegration of the USSR and of other socialist countries of Europe only due to the fact that they did not resemble their unmoral society. At the same time, it is noted in the left discourse that there is no convincing evidence of extensive involvement of international terrorism in activities in the North Caucasus.
Second, spokesmen of the left discourse make responsible for the situation in the North Caucasus the present Russian political regime, which is to blame for complete withdrawal of the state from economy of the region and for its degradation: destruction of industries, unemployment, poverty, total corruption. Exactly due to the irrational policy of Moscow the self-isolation of republican elites from their own people did take place. Newspaper "Sovetskaya Rossiya" mentioned Kabardino-Balkaria as an example. Contrary to the official data, the GNP of the republic accounted annually for decrease of 3-5%. In terms of budgetary expenses for one person it occupies one of the last places in the RF. The republican budget gets subsidies from the federal center in the amount of 70%. The average wage is twice lower than the national average wage. The present period is compared by the newspaper with the glorious Soviet period of time: in 1920, in Kabarda
and Balkaria there were only two schools for 23 pupils, while for the period of the Soviet power there were constructed 10 higher and 15 high special education institutions, where studied over 15 thousand students. The number of professors and associate professors, doctors and candidates of sciences surpassed the number of literate people in 1920. For the Soviet time, only in Nalchik for one working day the industrial production surpassed by 60 times the whole production in Kabardino-Balkaria in 1920. Nobody was aware of such notions as unemployment, inflation, racket, terrorism, corruption, prostitution and oligarchy. The peoples maintained reciprocal peaceful and friendly relations.
At the same time, "Sovetskaya Rossiya" for one year devoted small attention to the North Caucasus: only 11 publications. The newspaper seems to be interested more in general, "global" and all-Russian geopolitical problems - opposition between East and West etc. The same may be said about newspaper "Zavtra": only 10 publications on the North Caucasus for the year. The national-patriotic discourse determines the situation like the official and the left discourses: the question is the existence of Russia as an independent state. Russia should struggle for political stability in the Caucasus, otherwise it will disappear from the world map. "Zavtra" rigidly criticizes those, who under pretext of saving money of the federal budget propose to get rid from the burden of problems of the Caucasus, leaving it to itself: to grant independence to Chechnya and to other republics, if they wish it.
The national-patriotic discourse is characterized by two arguments: first, it stresses the discrimination and persecution of the Russian population, which has to emigrate without any assistance of the federal authorities. It is impossible to keep the North Caucasus within the Russian state, notes "Zavtra". It cites various Chechen documents in time of quasi-independent Ichkeria and mentions the slogan in Grozny:
"Russians, please, do not go away! We are in need of slaves and prostitutes!" However, the authorities look for support everywhere but not from Russians, marks the newspaper. A Russian refugee, if he returns to Chechnya, may claim for compensation of 125 thousand rubles, while a Chechen refugee will get 300 thousand rubles. Secondly, the national-patriotic discourse on the North Caucasus is characterized by anti-immigrant feelings. "Zavtra" explains the inflow of migrants from the region by poverty and instability. It notes that the migrants represent a great threat to Russian identity and culture. Thus, due to the wide area of migrants' settlement, the situation in the North Caucasus concerns each Russian citizen.
In the national-patriotic discourse, like in the left discourse, the situation is appraised as a threatening and aggravating situation. After events in Nalchik the leader of parliamentarian fraction "Rodina" D. Ragozin demanded installation of emergency situation in the North Caucasus in his article in newspaper "Zavtra". The national-patriots agree with Communists that it is impossible to explain the situation by a plot of international terrorists. Radical Islamism existed always in Chechnya, Ingushetia and northern part of Dagestan, noted "Zavtra". At present, under conditions of ideological vacuum, these ideas are propagated among the peoples, traditionally loyal to Russia. The pro-Russian part of society in the North Caucasus shares remnants of Soviet ideology. The Soviet heritage, reminiscence of the Great Patriotic war is extremely important for the elder generation: the Soviet epoch is regarded by it as a period of flourishing, when every person was able to find a job, there existed order, there were maintained peaceful relations among peoples of the region. However, paradoxically the Soviet heritage contains a mighty anti-Russian explosive device: Soviet propaganda persistently assured the people that the czarist Russia was a prison for peoples, that only the Soviet power provided them with
freedom. At present, they repeat the same thesis in relation to contemporary Russia.
Table 2
Substance and structure of the left geopolitical discourse
"Grammar" of discourse Discourse
Why the North Caucasus is important for Russia? Characteristic of contemporary situation in the region The question is the existence of the Russian state. The victory of terrorists in the Caucasus will mean a stage on the way to disintegration of Russia.
In which way does the situation change? The risk of a large-scale conflict grows fast.
What external factors and international events represent the consequences of its development? The Anglo-American imperialists are accomplices of the Caucasian terrorists: they support them to split Russia and to bend its "fragments" to their will. There is no convincing evidence of international terrorism's involvement in actions in the North Caucasus.
What are the reasons of the created situation? The active forces and reasons Total corruption, destruction of economy and poverty, caused by withdrawal of state from economy. "The acute problems of people became the nutrient medium of gangsterism...The reactionary forces actively use the growing social evil in the struggle for power and property" (G. Zyuganov).
In which way the situation is explained and who is responsible for it? The ruling regime, pathologically unable to carry out efficient activities and indifferent to the needs of millions of citizens. The West and particularly the USA, having proclaimed the Caucasus to be the zone of their vital interests. "Democrats", having disintegrated the Soviet Union with support of the USA.
What political conclusions should be made? The political interests and conclusions 1. "In Soviet times we were not aware of what is unemployment and inflation, terrorism and racket. " 2. Moscow should finally get rid of reckless westernism.
What measures should be taken? The determined hard stand in relation to the USA, Great Britain and other western countries should be taken.
Like Communists, the national-patriots accuse Americans of making pressure on Russia along the perimeter of its borders, of stimulating separatism with the hope of for its disintegration and getting control over its rich resources. Like in the official and the left discourses, the national-patriots think that the USA and other western countries use double standards. And what is more, they regard this policy as logical and inevitable, since Americans are convinced in their moral superiority.
Like Communists, the authors of newspaper "Zavtra" accuse the present Kremlin regime of all misfortunes in the North Caucasus. They try to show that ethnic clans have monopolized the control over republican and local authorities, law enforcement bodies, local enterprises of the state companies and over the most profitable branches of economy. Due to collapse of industries and other advanced branches of economy, due to departure of the Russia population, society goes on through the process of rapid rise of archaic phenomena: actually the republics in the North Caucasus return to the epoch of feudalization, to the regimes of personal power, composing the features of traditional clan system and the remnants of Communist structures. This system is based as well on arbitrary rule of law enforcement bodies, providing services to the clan's interests, used as a means of blood feud and regulation of relations among different groups, inevitably aggravating the situation. The general corruption is a needed component of this system. "Zavtra" cited M. Aliyev, the president of Dagestan, who has a good reputation: the post of republican minister "costs" $ 500 thousand, the post of the head of local administration costs $ 150 thousand. The state power is completely isolated from real life, and the social polarization has attained a scandalous level, while poverty and unemployment greatly prevail over the average level in the country.
The conclusion, made in the national-patriotic discourse, is the same as in the left discourse: the policy of the federal authorities is inadequate to the situation. There is an urgent need to replace as soon as possible the corrupted regional elites and to reform the law enforcement system, to elaborate and actively to carry out the special economic policy in the North Caucasus, which will make it possible to create a sufficient number of new jobs. Some national patriots propose also to redraw the political-administrative map of the region and create provinces with equal rights.
Table 3
Substance and structure of national-patriotic geopolitical discourse
"Grammar" of discourse | Discourse
Characteristic of the contemporary situation in the region
Why the North Caucasus is important for Russia? The question is the existence of the Russian state. Russia may not let itself leave the North Caucasus. Several emirates or khanates will immediately be formed, being hostile to Russia and making territorial claims to it. Discrimination and persecution of the Russian population, deprived of any protection by the federal authorities. Migration of hundred thousand people, originated from the North Caucasus, to Russian cities, threatening Russian identity and culture.
In what way the situation changes? The situation aggravated to the critical level.
What are the external factors and the international consequences of its development? It is impossible to explain the situation by influence of international terrorism: ideology of radical Islam existed in the east of the North Caucasus for many centuries. The geopolitical pressure of the USA on the whole perimeter of Russian borders becomes intolerable. The West occupies a hypocritical position in relation to Russia and applies double standards. The USA aims at weakening and disintegration of Russia.
The acting forces and the causes
What causes contributed to the creation of the existing situation? The inadequate policy of the federal authorities, which allowed the regional elites to establish authoritarian regimes, possessing the interests, being far from aspirations of the people and deprived of any support. Poverty, unemployment.
In which way the situation is explained and who is responsible for it? "All problems are in Moscow and not in the periphery". The administration and the law enforcement system are formed according to the clan-ancestral principal. Corruption is part and parcel of this system. The republics of the North Caucasus are in the process of going back to feudalism: the officials have the limitless power and keep under their control the most profitable spheres of economy.
Political interests and conclusions
What political conclusions should be made? The pro-Russian part of society in the North Caucasus shares the remnants of the Soviet ideological heritage. However, it has a strong anti-Russian explosive device. Under present conditions Muslim extremism becomes "ideology of social justice", a protest against amoral western and now Russian civilization.
What measures should be taken? To remove from power regional elites, to liquidate corruption in the law enforcement bodies, to struggle against ethnic criminality, to carryout efficient economic and social policy, to change the political-administrative division.
The liberal discourse does not stress an exceptional feature of the situation in the North Caucasus. On the contrary, it is stressed that in principle the foundation for forceful acts exists in the whole country. The corruption has affected everywhere the regional administrations, mishandling budgetary means and artificially creating the excessive social polarization and poverty. The law enforcement system protects interests of the power and not of ordinary citizens and strives for preventing "orange revolution". However, the problems in the North Caucasus have specific ethnic and historic feature. At the same time, "war against terrorism" is being waged just there. Therefore it started to blaze there and not in another place, explained prominent observer of newspaper "Novaya Gazeta" A. Politkovskaya, assassinated in October of 2006. Nevertheless, "Novaya Gazeta" devotes much more attention to information and analysis of the situation in the North Caucasus, than "Sovetskaya Rossiya" or "Zavtra": 49 publications in a year, including only two publications, written in a positive manner.
In the liberal discourse the situation in the North Caucasus is also appraised as deteriorating. Many articles in "Novaya Gazeta" are devoted to political tension, conflicting situations, lawless actions of the authorities, violation of human rights. The conclusion is formulated quite clearly: the official declarations about improvement of the situation in the region are not more than propaganda. The punitive actions are often directed against the people, whose participation in terrorist acts is at least questionable, while these acts, particularly in Dagestan, actually represent events, when some clans settle a score with other clans or are examples of blood feud. In the course of cruel forceful actions in the struggle against terrorists the law enforcement bodies cause great and, as a rule, not compensated material and moral damage to many innocent people, including women and children. Information about victims among the peaceful citizens is published. The terrorists usually are not captured being alive: the newspaper explains it by disinclination of the law enforcement organs to have unnecessary eye-witnesses and to collect evidence and at the same time by their interest to report about new successes.
As far as the international sphere is concerned, the liberals do not agree with one of the main thesis of the official discourse that terrorism in the North Caucasus is a part of global war against international terrorism. They deem that the federal authorities need this thesis to justify their repressive and inadequate policy. Responding to E. Yurgens, a parliamentarian of Holland, who made a report on violation of human rights in the North Caucasus, K. Kosachyov, the head of the Russian delegation in a session of the Council of Europe, declared: "The phenomenon, qualified by you as a civil war, actually is the struggle against terrorism". L. Shvetsova, an analyst of the Moscow Center of Carnegie, determined this tactic as "use of liberal rhetoric by the non-liberal power". Liberals refute arguments of the official
discourse concerning its assertion that even European politicians admit amelioration of the situation. "Novaya Gazeta" in this respect cherishes hopes for international organizations, involved in the research of violation of human rights in the region.
The elaborated international expertise makes it possible to determine the level of al-Qaeda involvement in some events in any region. The foreign experts, asked by the newspaper, think that international terrorist organizations actually give financial and ideological support to terrorists in the North Caucasus but this assistance does not play the decisive role. In contrast to al-Qaeda groups, which penetrated many countries of the world, Basayev and his supporters took actions exclusively against the Russian state and were not interested in what was going in the West. Thus, all opposition newspapers - from national-patriotic to liberal - make the same diagnosis. The causes of the crisis situation in the North Caucasus are as follows: corruption, abuse of budgetary means, poverty, unemployment, duplicity of official propaganda. In the liberal discourse it is stressed that the republican authorities do not enjoy people's confidence and do not care for needs of ordinary citizens. "Novaya Gazeta" shares a more specific approach and reveals real motives of political decisions, taken by the republican authorities, and cites examples of their absolute indifference to people's needs and public opinion. For instance, the newspaper reported about shooting by special servicemen of the demonstration in the Doguzparinsk district (South Dagestan), which was arranged with the demand of dismissal of the corrupted head of the district administration. Till that time, any attempts to knock until someone is heard at the door of the republican authorities did fail: all complaints were sent back. These events were officially interpreted as the attempts of radical elements to remove the lawful power.
"Novaya Gazeta" mentions another factor of tension in Dagestan and in neighboring republics: the unique combination of traditional ethnic-clan organization of society with remnants of Communist structures. Under these conditions, there are two decisions: either to apply strictly the laws of the Russian state or to give mountaineers a chance to live according to their traditional laws. The selective and spontaneous compliance with laws and application of the law enforcement system by rival clans leads to chaos.
Table 4
Substance and structure of liberal (right) discourse
"Grammar" Liberal (right) discourse
Characteristic of contemporary situation in the republic
Why the North Caucasus is important for Russia? The situation in the North Caucasus is as disturbed as in Russia as a whole, although it is complicated by a number of factors, particularly by "war against terrorism".
In which way the situation changes? The situation is aggravating rapidly, stabilization is a myth of official propaganda.
What are the external factors and of its developments' international consequences? The slogan on global war against international terrorism is used by the federal authorities for justification of greatly erroneous policy.
The acting forces and the causes
What are the reasons of the shaped situation? Total corruption, abuse of budgetary means, poverty, unemployment, duplicity and lies of official propaganda, daily violations of elementary human rights, Archaic order of society, combining traditional ethnic-clan organization with vestiges of Communist structures. Ignorance of realities by the federal center.
How the situation is explained and who is responsible for it? Rigid and unprofessional actions of the federal authorities, dramatically aggravating anti-Russian feelings.
Political interests and conclusions
What political conclusions should be made? The federal authorities are not only unable to cope with the situation but also to analyze it.
What measures should be taken? Solidarity and self-organization of civil society may prevent further complications.
The conclusions made in the liberal discourse resemble the conclusions made in other opposition discourses: the federal authorities do not cope with the situation and even are unable to comprehend its causes. However, the political recommendations, made by the liberals, are different: it is necessary to develop civil self-consciousness and solidarity of citizens, to promote their self-organization in protection of
their rights, to strengthen shoots of civil society.
* * *
The views of what discourse share the residents of the North Caucasus?
What is the opinion of common citizens on the decisions, suggested by politicians and political observers? It seems that the perception on primarily economic roots of the shaped situation is shared by everybody: from the state leaders to the opposition of all tinges and public opinion in the region itself. In the opinion of 47.5% of respondents, exactly the lack of noticed economic progress represents by itself the most significant problem for peoples in the North Caucasus. As other reasons, mentioned in various discourses, are concerned, the citizens agree rather with the opposition: it is evident that they are dissatisfied with the regional (republican) authorities and think that corruption is the most important hindrance to improvement of their position. The following reasons were mentioned by the respondents: corruption - 21.0% of respondents, terrorism and armed conflicts - 17.5%, criminality - 8.9%. Unlike participants of the left and national-patriotic discourse, the residents of the North Caucasus are not inclined to regard the risk of separatism and of inter-ethnic tension as the principal danger: only 3.5% of the respondents mentioned it as the principal danger (1.5% of the respondents were in difficulties to answer).
The responses to other questions directly or indirectly prove this conclusion. Only 1.5% of respondents regard as an important problem
of the peoples in the North Caucasus the lack of possibility to withdraw from the Russian Federation. Only 3.0% of respondents agreed with the assertion that concession by Russia of such option to the Caucasian peoples might put an end to terrorist actions. Therefore, to all appearance, the argument often used by the official discourse, that the peoples in the North Caucasus as usual link their life with Russia, as a whole is justified. Consequently, only 9% of citizens think that forceful actions and conflicts in the region are explained by the wish of Chechen separatists to withdraw their republic from Russia. And 17.6% of respondents accuse the authorities of emergence of such problem, while 13.2% of respondents mentioned the international terrorism in this respect. In other words, about 40% of the population in the North Caucasus share the central argument of the official discourse relating to the connection between the Caucasian and the international terrorism. At the same time, a significant part of citizens (27.1%) share the opposition's point of view that the situation in the North Caucasus is the outcome of the non-professional policy of the federal authorities (only 1.9% of respondents mentioned other causes of violence and conflicts, while 8.4% experienced difficulties in giving answer).
At the same time, there are noticeable differences of opinions among representatives of main ethnic groups. The choices of Russians, who share some or other option of the answer, actually do not differ from the average level. Over half of the questioned Avars, Dargins and Lezgins consider the inauspicious state of economy and the lack of working places as the greatest danger for the peoples of the North Caucasus. It is common knowledge that according to official statistics Dagestan occupies one of the last places in the RF in terms of level of incomes per one person. Corruption is considered to be the main danger by greater number of respondents than the average level of respondents among Russians and Chechens, who seem to know well the size of the
misappropriated means out of the financial means, coming to Chechnya from the federal center.
The respondents' points of view differ most of all in relation to the significance of the Chechen conflict as a leading factor of tension. The share of the Chechens, who regard as its main cause the refusal of the federal authorities to give independence to Chechnya, surpasses more than twice the average level (21%: the questions were put only to Chechens, living outside the title republic). Relatively many neighbors-Avars (13%) and Kabardins (17%) expressed their solidarity with this opinion. A rather worrying symptom is seen in inclination of Kabardins (7% comparing with average 5%) to complain on the lack of chance for peoples in the North Caucasus to gain self-independence. The summed up average share of the respondents in five regions, who do not see a danger of disintegration of Russia, i.e. those with anti-system feelings, accounts for 14%. The share of such respondents makes up the following data in different groups: Chechens - 26%, Kabardins - 24%, Avars - 16% (at the same time, neighboring Dargins - only 5%, Kumyks - 4%).
The Russian policy in the North Caucasus as a cause of violence is regarded in particular by Avars and Lezgins (the latter, probably, due to dissatisfaction with the present status of the people, separated by the state border). The organized criminality causes the greatest concern by Dargins, Kumyks and Chechens (21-25% comparing with 18% respondents in average, who regard this threat to the North Caucasus as the greatest threat). Over half of responded Kabardins, Lezgins and Avars regard these two causes as the main causes of violence and conflicts in the North Caucasus, occupying the central place in the geopolitical discourse of opposition of all types. The official version that considers radical Islam as the main cause of violence is shared
mainly by peoples of Dagestan (Dargins, Kumyks and Avars - 23-25%) and Armenians (21% comparing with average 18%).
In other words, most respondents of some relatively numerous peoples of the region, particularly Chechens and Kabardins, either regard as a possible action the separation of some regions from Russia or, in one way or other, express their consent with the arguments, advanced in the geopolitical discourse of the opposition.
Thus, the comparative analysis of the contents of the discourses and of the sociological data allowed making conclusion that the official discourse on the North Caucasus as a whole enjoys a small popularity in the region itself. In terms of critical geopolitics, it means that "internal" "high" geopolitics developed by the ruling political forces does not coincides completely with "low" geopolitics - the set of perceptions, symbols and images on geopolitical perspectives of the region and on its place within the Russian state, on the causes of political tension and constant explosions of violence, which is shared at the same time by a considerable part of public opinion. Probably, this is the key difference in geopolitical vision of the state territory and of the external world, as well as of perceptions of foreign policy of Russia. It is known that in all regions the Russian citizens appreciate activities V. Putin on the international arena higher than his activities as a whole, although the general rating of the head of the state is quite high. The divergence in the views of "high" and "low" geopolitics is relatively small.
The principal divergence exists between the official discourse and the opinion of the opposition. In contrast with the official point of view, the opposition discourse on the North Caucasus is marked by the alarmist characteristic; the political rivals of the present administration are convinced that the situation in the region is aggravating and is fraught with a serious crisis.
The contents of the opposition's discourses on the North Caucasus as one of the most important region of the country correspond to the geopolitical traditions in views on the foreign policy priorities. The "internal" geopolitical discourse of western liberals on the Caucasus corresponds to western traditions, the official discourse -corresponds to state prevalence direction, the left and national-patriotic discourse - consequently corresponds to non-Communist, radical-expansionist and ground discourse.
At the same time, the consensus of all political forces exists on a certain position. Experts agree that at the present stage the key role in stabilization of the situation is played by economy: the region is in great need of investments and new jobs. Most experts also think that the North Caucasus is an integral part of Russia. Its disintegration will mean the start of disintegration of the whole Russian state. Therefore it can not admit victory of radical forces. In the geopolitical discourse of at least a part of opposition there is a trend to opposition of northern "Russians" to southern "national" regions of the North Caucasus in terms of cultural-historic peculiarities. This trend reflects the actual processes of social-economic polarization of its territory and objectively contradicts declarations on the needs in integration.
"Naselenie Yuga Rossii: transformatsiya vosproizvodstva naseleniya i obraza zhizni v novyh geopoliticheskih usloviyah", Stavropol, 2009, p. 38-52.
L. Timofeenko,
publicist
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