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of scientific or political-legal field. At present, the complex critical comprehension of the existing system of federal relations and elaboration of systemic measures for their perfection is quite possible. In this respect, a special urgency acquires the analysis of the place and significance of national sovereignty in political-legal origin of contemporary Russian federalism.
"Vlast", M., 2010, N 3, p. 4-8.
G.Murklinskaya,
political scientist
THE COUNTERACTION AGAINST THE CONTEMPORARY THREATS IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA
The threats to security of the southern boundaries of Russia and of all states of the Caspian Sea region aggravate essentially against the background of the growing conflict between Iran and the USA, threatening to turn out into its military stage. The USA does not keep back its interest in the seizure of the military-political control over the territory from the Persian Gulf through the Caspian Basin and the Caucasus to the Black Sea and the Crimea. One can see the painfully pulsating arch of instability - the civil and inter-ethnic conflicts - on the whole southern perimeter of our borders. It forces us to think once more about our internal stability and mobilizing preparedness of civil society to repulse any forms of aggression in case of a direct threat of interference (under any pretext) in our internal affairs and of the attempts to destabilize the situation in our borderline regions and republics.
The gravest threat, creating preconditions for the outside interference and different types of aggression from information-
ideological and cultural-civilization to military actions, is caused by the semi-underground terrorist network and by the fifth column of ascendancy agents of regional and world historic antagonists of Russia in national republics.
The struggle against the terrorist threat in the country supposes creation of a complicated, well-coordinated multi-level program and in general of a state system, including dynamic and constructive cooperation of the state structures and the non-governmental public organizations as a part of civil society. It should be taken into account that we deal not with one type of terrorism, but with its different types in terms of objectives and sources of financing. Their common feature is the method of achievement of the set objectives. It should be admitted that it is impossible to get rid of political terrorism. As soon as antagonism exists in society itself, the clashes of different groups will take place, and sometimes they will be in the form of terrorism.
Therefore it should be said that the author speaks about the form of political terrorism, caused by religious Islamic extremism and about adjacent ethnic and regional separatism, as well as about a new phenomenon in our life, such as the crimes, committed on the basis of hatred. The factors, contributing to strengthening of terrorist threat in specific circumstances of Russia, may be divided into some main components:
The accelerated modernization at the scale of the country and region, the progressive lag of traditional societies in national republics;
The terrorist potential of the republics in the process of progressive archaic and marginal state, the permanent leadership (or clans' elites), almost full financial state subsidies, resulting in corruption of the power system at all levels.
The clan-cast system of power promotes faster stratification -separation of society into the social strata, which do not mix, and its
polarization. At the same time, most living generations still remember themselves, being equal members of the social state not separated by partitions - the USSR. Evidently, such forceful change of the social status without aspiration for its improvement for them or for their children can not help accumulating great negative protest energy against the system of power.
The conditions for rigid inter-ethnic and internal ethnic competition are being also created in small multinational republics, "shut up" within the borders of their geographic space by dissemination in central, wealthier and perspective regions of xenophobia. The going on aggravation of crisis elements in the republics of the North Caucasus in all spheres of life creates the situation, when each new generation starts its life with lesser cultural and educational capacity and consists of potentially "not wanted people". The situation in Russian distant regions is not better, since the generations of "not wanted people", street children, and abandoned children represent the source of mutual distrust and cruel competition among young people for "a well paid job". This mixture is more explosive in national republics due to additional specific conditions. If one makes an addition to this situation of activities, carried out by external anti-Russian forces, directly interested in destabilization of the Caucasian region and supported by the well rooted and expensive network of agents, by the anti-Russian ideology, elaborated for almost two centuries, one may conclude that some stabilization, achieved thanks to the efforts, exerted by the law enforcement bodies, represents only a respite, which should be used to work out the comprehensive complex measures for neutralization of negative factors, provoking strengthening of terrorist threats.
Even in case of immediate elaboration and introduction of such complex measures, for a long time the republics in the south of Russia will remain a potential social and operative base for development of the
terrorist network and of bandits' groups, composed of national people and foreign mercenaries. Such Caucasian scenario may and should be prevented by development of civil institutions, public opinion and disapproval of xenophobia, hatred, aggression, which are the most efficient element of counteraction against extremism.
One of the most significant aspects of this complex program should become the information-psychological protection of the population from the directed hostile psychological impact by preventive information-psychological stereotyped analysis of situations and information. Various public associations should become an important element of shaping public position and views of the majority of the population: associations of children and young people, rural and religious communities, ethnic unions of representatives of one ethnic group, living on the territory of other ethnic groups. It is important to use all elements of information impact on these groups of people to use early diagnosis and to prevent xenophobia or aggressive behavior of these groups' members, of members of their families or their relatives. Society should master to solve the emerging problems by public ascendancy over individuals and to elaborate mechanisms of including, if necessary, the state structures in ensuring reintegration in society of the people occurred due to certain circumstances in the complicated situation, forcing them to extremism. These mechanisms include social and psychological aspects of targeted individual work with the people turned to be in the zone of risk.
As a whole, the state and society should work out a system of mutual actions in forming mass consciousness and educating new generations in the spirit of tolerance and civil responsibility. The aim consists in elaboration of immunity at the level of mass and individual perception of the main types of hostile information ascendancy. Three types of psychological ascendancy should be named: ascendancy over
law-abiding citizens; ascendancy over those, who are in the zone of social risk or due to ethnic mentality are predisposed to destructive models of behavior; ascendancy over the antagonists. The aim of information-psychological ascendancy over antagonists (in this case over those, who in their anti-constitutional activities has passed the point of irrevocability in society) is usually considered suppression of his will, disorientation, gradual guidance to the meaning that any resistance to the authorities and all the more continuation of terrorist or other anti-state, ant-public and other distracted activities lacks any perspective and is doomed to failure. The only way out is to surrender, to start peaceful way of life.
And the military solving of the problem may be mentioned only as the fourth direction. And in this direction the basis of struggle against terrorism and other forms of anti-constitutional activities in the proper state, particularly state terrorism, may be the targeted special operations. At the same time, the principal and coordinating link among all directions should remain the invisible work of secret services. Exactly the reconnaissance communities possess adequate mass of information and specialists for carrying out counter-terrorist and information-psychological operations. The developed civil society is characterized by the fact that all its non-governmental public organizations, associations, unions strive for constructive and open cooperation with the authorities to prevent criminal acts, connected with racial, ethnic or religious hatred, separatist or religious-extremist ideas. As a good example of relations between the state and civil society we can consider the work carried out to prevent conflicts and crimes, based on hatred, in California, in the cities of San-Francisco and Los Angeles.
Russia still has to pass the long way of acquiring experience and building the civil society, able in constructive mutual actions with the
state to solve the problems of ethnic, racial and confessional relations. At the first stage of this way, probably, the success could be achieved by means of elaboration of the complex program of methods and main mechanisms of reciprocal action of society and state for the sake of ensuring safe development of multi-confessional and poly-ethnic regions of the country. The aim of such complex program should consist in involvement of instruments of civil society in settlement of vital issues, using its channels in mass media (and other means and methods of influence on mass and individual consciousness), and it would be necessary to carry out the needed work. Otherwise, the attempts to solve the problems only by military methods will result in unpredictable results, destructive for the country.
Huan Carlos Marigella, the theoretician and legend of terrorism, in his book on theory and practice of "city guerrilla" in the beginning of the 1970s made the recommendation to transform terrorist acts into a political crisis and further into the civil war. As he says, it is necessary to struggle against the power in the way, which will transform this power into an awful tyranny, to make every day life of the people unbearable and to provoke panic and chaos in society. The authorities will inevitably enact martial law to install order. But it will not stop the terror, since its logic is inexorable. Bombs will explode and people will be killed, the police will apply cruel methods of struggle... As a result, the population will rise in rebellion against the army and police. If everyday life is imperiled, the instinct of self-protection and wish to live prevail over the reasons of wisdom of the most patient people. These theoretical recommendations are used by all contemporary terrorist organizations. In the beginning of the century the terrorist organizations in Latin America sustained defeat in the struggle against regular armed forces in rural areas and lost support of local population, and therefore they started city guerrilla; the contemporary terrorism is
characterized by organized cycle activities, since it takes into account the experience of former terrorists. The observers of events in Chechnya long time ago predicted the start of a new circle: the full or partial change of the armed struggle's tactics by the Chechen underground organizations.
Each century advances its projects of uniting the world -Messiah ideas, which oppose "old world". For the beginning of the XXI century, two ideas, being contradictory on the face of it, became most urgent: globalization in American way and jihad as the idea of installation of a certain world Islamic caliphate. However, the peculiarity of the second idea is as follows: actually it performs up till present the untidy work for realization of the idea of globalization. But it does not make it less dangerous: it is as if Fascism in Germany before the second front opening.
The forces engaged in the struggle for realization of jihad idea may be divided as follows: the ideologists of contemporary jihad with world known names and the analytical centers of foreign secret services - being the brain of the project; the international terrorist network with its bases, specialists, military experts and experts in waging psychological war (tactic and strategy), with due account of the specific ethnic regional conflicts - being as if the organization's body; the third part not in significance but by the relative order may be considered the number of people, who are in charge of financial and material support of this complicated system.
Apart from global projects, there exists regional jihad for all regions and even small enclaves with Muslim population. Implementation of some or other projects depends on the political order, and this order is not always directly connected with the main project. The implementation of any project demonstrates sooner the existence of some coincidence of NATO and the USA interests with the
interests of the countries-satellites in Islamic world. For some time, such coincidence of interests existed by the USA and Afghan mojaheds: the USA could not allow the USSR to get dominance in the significant geopolitical direction; the USA seized Afghanistan by mojaheds' efforts and made it to be its stronghold in Asia.
One of these regional projects remains Chechnya, but it would be impossible to push it out of structure of Russia without Dagestan. Two main obstacles prevent implementation of Dagestani jihad project: the enmity of the majority of the republic's population and the rigid position of the official power. In such cases the usual method consisted in initiation of a kind of "orange" or of some other "revolution". The fulfillment of this task by Jihad underground organization became more complicated owing to adoption in the republic of the new law on elections and thanks to the partial change of the ruling elite's composition. Up till present time, the strategists of the informationterrorist war made their main stake on habitual and fed up Ichkeria's terrorists, since analysts of western secret services supported them and their structures, while western mass media publicized them. At present, the number of Arabic and Chechen "names", getting money, was reduced almost to null and void. Other "authoritative" leaders of bandits' groups in Chechnya will not appear (for certain objective reasons).
The bandits' groups in Dagestan occupied for some time the depended position and participated in terrorist acts and military clashes to a lesser extent, keeping their potential. This fact preserved for some time the danger of transfer of military actions to Dagestan. Today it is possible to say that this threat has been liquidated up till now. What is more, most bandits' groups, "returned" from Chechnya to Dagestan, lost their leaders and were dispersed. At the same time, the foreign policy position changed, and Arabic oil states lost their interest in
further financial support in Dagestan to implementation of Arabic geopolitical project, which sustained the crushing defeat in Chechnya. Evidently the situation is changing and the Dagestani project, judging by intensification of underground activities, has been determined by the controlling secret services to be a self-dependent direction.
The formation of a united extremist movement, composed from different fragments, is going on in the world. They consist from underground extremist and terrorist groups of different Islamic trends and ethnic composition. The uniting components are as follows:
- The creation of a world Islamic caliphate as a general declared
aim;
- The complicated multilevel system of subordination, which allows western secret services and connected special services of Islamic countries-satellites of America to use this global network in the geopolitical interests of the West (at present, more and more in the interests of one power - the USA);
- The common sources of financial support, the methods of struggle and even arms and training in the same camps by the same instructors.
For recent time, all this makes some researchers of political science qualify them as the reserved geopolitical enemies, living for some time under cover of diversion-terrorist Special Forces.
The Chechen underground organization was represented mainly by "wahhabism" in direct military form. It was oriented to Saudi Arabia and other Arabic countries-satellites of the USA, and this fact made it an inevitably torn away entity. In Dagestan rather big "wahhabi" forces are unable to place themselves at the head of separatism or opposition due to their alien origin. The jihad underground organization in Dagestan traditionally oriented itself not to distant Arabs but to Turkey and the North Caucasian Diaspora in this country. Jihadizm in
Dagestan is a complicated and fragmented entity, including not only and not so much "wahhabis" but also radical Islamists, being traditional Muslims. Due to some reasons, a part of jihadists were oriented more to information activities and public support of separatism during the first Chechen war and continue to occupy such position in covered form now (Aesopian language of articles, written by some intellectuals).
With some evidence, one may say after liquidation of bandits' formations in Chechnya that exactly Dagestani jihadist underground organization inherited the uncovered part of "wahhabi" special forces, whose members now are engaged in training of young people in different groups. The objective pursued by these underground Special Forces is as follows: to live under cover on the territory of the enemy and to wait for its hour, arranging terrorist acts and diversions. The general ideological approach, making it possible to recruit the youth in Islamic regions, which, mildly speaking, do not feel sympathy for the West, consists in "world jihad", guided and directed in the channel, beneficial for the customer. Regretfully, the underground organization both in Dagestan and Chechnya represent exactly such fragmented Islamic conglomerate, united only by ideas of jihad and the dollars' and ideological support. At the same time, some members of the underground movement work under cover in all structures, including higher echelons of power.
It is necessary to mention another grave analytical mistake, connected with the lack of systemic approach and with inadequate account of dynamics of processes, going on in Islamic world. It is a paradox but the defeat sustained by the fighters-jihadists in the course of military aggression from the territory of Chechnya contributed in general to consolidation of position of Islam in the North Caucasus. At present, the question is that this consolidation promoted consolidation of the state and overcoming conflicts by means of Islamic tolerance
potential, patriotism and law-abiding behavior of Muslims. It should be taken into account the following: first, on the one side, traditional clergy seemed to consolidate its position, on the other side, its authority among the young people and representatives of the middle-aged population decreased; second, the youth acquired internal need in its own Islamic self-identification, consequently raised its interests in study of Islam primarily by Internet and in Islamic higher educational institutions.
The attention of the youth to Internet-Islam with aspiration of young people for justice and maximal wish to achieve it resulted in gradual virtual adherence of increasing part of young Muslims of Russia to the world Islamic umma, which lets speak about existence in their consciousness of elements of double citizenship: Russian and "caliphate". Indirectly it is proved by the rise of the number of volunteers from Muslim regions of Russia in the groups of talibs in Afghanistan. The recruitment of Islamic young people is effected to the regions of the world, where armed clashes take place. The rotation of these contingents will result in further radicalization of Islam in Russia.
Similar events occurred in Saudi Arabia and other Arabic countries, when mojaheds from these countries took part in armed actions against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Having come back, the former participants of armed actions displayed absolute intolerance to heterodoxy. The second factor of radicalization of Islam will become further Islamic education of the population in Muslim regions, particularly in cases, when teaching of Islam becomes an obligatory discipline in the general education schools, as the clergy actively demands it to be adopted.
Following the natural generations' change within the clergy of the republics, the last remnants of the so-called "traditional Islam" will sink into the Lethe of history, where they will be adequately
interpreted. In particular, in Dagestan since the times of the Chechen war the activities directed to re-consideration of the Caucasian region's history are carried out with the view of creation of a kind of united ideology. According to this interpretation of history, there were no revolution, no patriotic war, since these events represented only the stages of the everlasting Caucasian war. Even at present, some mass media agencies publicly propagate this ideology.
All above mentioned creates ideal conditions for gradual substitution of mentality of all peoples in the North Caucasus, for transformation of greater number of young people into active "citizens" of the world Islamic caliphate. As an example at the initial stage of local use of the "virtual Kuwait" effect in the North Caucasus we can consider to be the site www.Ingushetia.ru, connected with the clans, which have been pushed aside from power but still possess a rather great anti-Russian capacity and enjoy support of external forces. In this respect, the phenomenon of "virtual Kuwait" may be realized practically everywhere. The international law up till present almost does not regulate and does not establish rules of procedure relating to many issues and legal collisions, emerging in the course of spontaneous self-development of elements of these network structures. At present, there exists a chance of their use for direct interference in internal affairs of some other state and for carrying out of various network operations and diversions for the sake of changing the constitutional system of this state.
Colonel-General A. Safonov, the special representative of the President of the RF for the issues of international cooperation in the struggle against terrorism and transnational organized criminality, mentions seven stages of world jihad, planned by Al-Qaeda in1998 ("Krasnaya Zvezda", 11.04.2007). The first stage, called "Waking Up", provided for a mighty strike against the western world (2000-2002).
The attack of 11 September played this tragic role. The second stage, called "Stand up from Kneel" (2002-2005(6) was planned to draw the West in aggression against two-three Islamic states. Such situation exists in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the probable war may begin against Iran. The aim of the following stages consists in achievement of Islamic solidarity and (at the fourth stage) the overthrow of secular regimes (called by adepts of jihad as regimes of Islamic heretics) in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and other two-three states. According to these plans, caliphate will be established in the period of 2015-2020. In the perception of talibs and al-Qaeda only in this way the Islamic model will get the upper hand in the clash of civilizations. The author of the article comes to the conclusion that to all appearances this scenario shows a rather efficient realization of this strategy.
The existence in Russia of Muslim regions and enclaves with a great number of youth, which associate themselves not with Russian civilization, like older generations, but with certain Islamic umma and then with Islamic caliphate, creates a potential threat to security of the state. In order to prevent such development of events it is necessary to start the work with all elements of civil society for the sake of integration of the Islamic youth in Russian society, to prevent its self-isolation and full concentration in ideological directions of the external forces.
The success of these technologies in Yugoslavia makes the West suppose that after creative review and corresponding correction it would be possible to use them also against Russia, in particular in the North Caucasus. But the situation and the mentality of the population in the North Caucasus essentially differs from the former situation in Yugoslavia, which resulted in its defeat and which now threatens to ruin Serbia. Undoubtedly, the North Caucasus and particularly Dagestan were and are subject to massive information pressure with the
aim of changing historic memory. As was mentioned, one of the elements of this work is replacement of Russian and Soviet history by a kind of myth, a surrogate of history of imamat in Dagestan in times of war waged by Shamil and of the world Islamic caliphate. Thus, in the republic there exists an intellectual semi-underground organization, which at present is privately rather supported than disapproved by a great part of the ruling elite. In other words, there exist in parallel with official in the information space: "history", "ideology", "legal system" of a mythical state - imamat. "The citizens" of this "imamat" are mainly the same people, who associate themselves with a virtual Islamic umma and form various network structures, including terrorist groups. But the main part of this network is still in "dormant" state.
The above mentioned information does not mean that Islam should be presented as a Devil or be transformed into a world threat. One should rather agree with S. Markedonov, who considers the North Caucasus as a kind of frontier. Contrary to the ideological stagnation of the elite like two-faced Janus, the virtual space is characterized by the constant information-psychological war, by the struggle for spirit of the people. In the course of this information war, the general priorities and moral imperatives of new Russian world will emerge.
The urgent creation and introduction of a complex program for working out mechanisms of mutual action of state and civil society is a must. This program should include models and technologies of information work with the population of the country and counteraction against hostile information technologies. This work should aim at working out "immune systems" of the population against similar technologies in order to prevent the West "to take a leap in the dark", as secret agents say, and to use Muslims against Russia, like it happened in Afghanistan and Chechnya. In the course of this struggle Islam should transform from a destructive weapon of the West again into one
of the ideological link of the Russian statehood, a significant and natural element of traditional Eurasian civilization. The re-grouping of the elite clans in Dagestan instead of expected change of elites provoked acceleration of transformation of the anti-Russian underground, having allowed it to integrate in the system of power under more advantageous conditions. One should not forget that the open and directly alien "wahhabism" in Russia is being replaced by a new "virus" of extremism, which is ideologically more adapted to mentality of the peoples in the North Caucasus and which has mastered mimicry for some time and is able to penetrate the state system and society.
"Severny Kavkaz v sovremennoi politike Rossii", Makhachkala, 2009, p. 231-243.
V. Chernous,
candidate of political sciences, professor (Rostovskaya region) THE CIVILIZATION-CULTURAL DIALOGUE IN THE CAUCASUS - THE BASIS OF REGIONAL STABILITY
The problem of stability and security in the Caucasus and in the south of Russia is one of the most complicated and acute problems in the Russian Federation. Many authors try to comprehend and to explain it by means of methodological, precisely speaking ideological "clash of civilizations" construction, introduced in scientific discussion by S. Huntington. This is the basis of the myth, widely spread in western and partly in national literature, on incompatibility of the Caucasian peoples' traditional culture with modernization and the modern democratic system. It is justified by the alarmist picture, constructed on
