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UCUq-LUSna U^UHLULh-P
DOI: 10.52174/2579-2989 2023.4-16
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ua3^uuM 1
Pfow^nLpjniM Qum mwp^gwj^U ^rfpbp^, 1950-2050 pp. (hwq. dwpq.)
1950 1990 2020 2023 2030 2050
0-14 472 I07o 571 566 ASA 377
15-64 800 2296 1887 1831 1786 1635
60+ 167 335 540 577 626 7?4
65-t 113 lfifi 348 381 489 561
80+ It. 36 89 78 76 170
Otujhwtmip J.3S5 3557 2806 2778 2760 2573
nLUnLlibLUU[lptj[nL <WJlUUmwbfl LU2hJUJmnL" dh lmnni.glm&fb nL H-pm ^n^n^Jmb srn^bpQ, hb^bu ^mL pmgmhmjsbLrn «hbsbm^np2bpQ», npnbf Ihh^m^npbb npn2mlh nL^nLpjnibbbpnLJ hpmlmbmg-in^ ^bsmlmb fm^wfmlmbnipjmb hpm-sm^nLpjnLbQ:
U^Nwrnrndh wnwb5bwhwmlni.pjnibbb-phg ^Iq ^.pm mb^qbLh ^m^b t bplph dn-^nlp^.mqpmlmb ^n^n^nLpjnibbbph hbs: Uh2wqqwjhb Iwnnijgbbph qbwhwmnL^b-ph hmJmdmjb' <mjmusmbh pbml^nipjmb SbpmgJmb m pimfmbmlh lp6msJmb ^srn^bpQ qbmLnl ^npmbrnJ bb, hb^b t[ mbgmb^m[h hbsLmbfbbp t pn^bniJ m2-^mmmbfh 2nLlwjh ^pm2: Mwb^wmbulnLJ t, np 2050 p^m^mbhb 15-64 smphfmjhb ^Jph pbml^nipjmb p^mfmbmlQ llp6ms-ih L llmq^ 1,635 hmq. Jmp^, hul 65-hg pmpdp mmphfh pbw^nipjwb p^mfm-bm^Q b^mrnb[hnpbb lm6h' hwubb|n^ 561 hmq. Jmp^ni. (m^jmuml 1):
UUM-h ^mum^mpqJmJp1 bpb 65-hg pmpdp mmphfmjhb ^Jph pbml^nipjmb sbumlmpmp l2hnb Qb^hmbmp pbmlyiL-pjmb 7 mn^nuhg pmpSp t, m^m mj^ bplhpQ hmJmplni.J t Sbpmgn^ ("aging"), 14 mn^nuhg m^b[hh T-b^fniJ' SbpmgmS ("aged"), hul bpp qbpmqmbgni.J t 20 snln-uq' qbpSbpmgmS ("super-aged")3: Uju gm-gmbh2n^ ^mjmusmbQ JnsbbrnJ t Sbpm-gmS bplpbbph uwhJwbwq&hb, hul 2050
p^m^mbhb mp^bb hwJwp^binL t qbpSb-pmgmS: 2023 p^m^mbh s^jmLbbpnl £m-jmummbmJ 65-hg pmpSp mmphfmjhb ^Jph pbml^nipjmb JmubmpmdhbQ 13,7 snlnu t, hul UUM-h Imb^msburn^bph hmJmdmjb' 2050 p^m^mbhb mjb lmq^-Lm t 21,8 mn^nu, hb^Q b2mbm^mJ t, np <mjmummbmJ jmpmfmb^jmp hhbq Jmp-^mg ^lb mp^bb iLhbh lbbumpn2mlmnnu Ummhnqh^ t mjb hmbqmJmbfQ, np 0-14 L 65-hg pmpSp mmphfmjhb ^Jpbph «6b^f^m6fQ» mmpbgmmph b^mqmJ t, hul mp^bb 2030 p^m^mbhg ulumS' Imb^msbu^nLJ t, np 65-hg pmpSp mmphfmjhb ^Jph pbml^nipjmb sbumlmpmp M2hnQ b^mmbLhnpbb qbpmqmbgbLm t 0-14 mmphfmjhb ^Jph JmubmpmdhbQ (qSm-^mm^bp 1):
Mp6mm^nn. 0-14 mmphfmjhb ^Jph pbm^^mpjmbQ Lp2mqnLjb u^mnbmLhf t' m2^mmmbm^ mmphfh pbm^nipjmb hm-JmLpJmb mbumb^|mbhg: Uju gnLgmbh2nl ^bpghb bpburnb mmphbbph QbpmgfrnJ <mjmusmbb m^bm^S lp6msni.^ t qpmbgbL bU.SU" bplpbbph 2mpfni.J: Uju-^bu' 0-14 mmphfmjhb ^Jph pbm^^mpjmb Jmubmpmdhbb Qb^hmbmp pbm^^mpjmb ^2 1990 p^m^mbhb ^mqJmJ tp 30,2 sn-^nu, hul| mp^bb 2023 p^m^mbhb' 20,4 sn-^nu: <m^Jmsmpjmb hmJmp b2bbf, np n_wqw^uswbh ^b^fmJ bmjb gmgmbh2Q 29,6 snlnu t, ^p^qusmbhbQ1 34,3 sn-
U^pjmpQ' Demographic changes in Asia and the Pacific, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations, https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/ARM
Unuii^bL JwbpuiJuiub sbu' S. Aiyar, C. Ebeke and X. Shao (2016), The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity, International Monetary Fund, 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16238.pdf, sbu bmL N.Maestas, K.J. Mullen, D. Powell, The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force and productivity, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 22452, July 2016, Revised June 2022, page 25, https://www.nber.org/system/ files/working_papers/w22452/w22452.pdf
UqpjnLpQ' World Bank Support to Aging Countries, Approach Paper, 2019, May 28, page 2, https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/ sites/default/files/Data/reports/ap_agingcountries.pdf
80 60 40 20 0
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■ 15-64
-0-14
-60+
65+
-80+
q-tju^usMbn 1
Swppbp mwphfiwjh^ ^rfpbph pfaw^nLpjwfa ^n^n^dwh ^mni^bpQ, 1950-2050 pp. (%)4
lnu, U^ppbgwhhhQ' 22,9 mn^nu, 4pwu-swI^IQ' 21,3 mn^nu, ra-nLpf^wj^Q1 23 mn^nu5;
<wjwumwhh phw^nLpjwh Sbpwgdwh ^mrn^bph wh^rn.uw^b|hnpbh hwhqbg-hni.d bh pwgwuw^wh mhmbuw^wh hb-mUw^f^bp^6; Shmbuwqhmwlwh qpw^w-hnLpjnLhnLd 2p2whwnlni.d t wjh dnmbgnidQ, np phw^nLpjwh Sbpwgdwh pwgwuwlwh wq^bgmpjm^Q mhmbuw^wh w6h ipw mb-^h t nLhbhnLd bp^m IwpLnpwqnyh o^w^-
hbph' w2^wmmd^ lp6wmdwh L wpmw^-pn^wlwhni.pjwh h^wqbgdwh ^gngn^7: Uju wnnidnl, <wjwumwhni.d mwpbg phw^-^nipjwh plh 2wpnihwlwlwh w6h L 0-14 mwphfwjhh ^dph phw^nipjwh lp6wm-dwh «qnp2» ^wm^bpQ ^mwglwS t w2-^wmmdh p^wpwhwlh L wpmw^pn^w-lwhni.pjwh w6h mbd^h h^wqn^ mp^w-qSbpmd; ^Sw^wm^bp 2-hg w^hwnm t, np 2008-2021 pp. w2^wmmdh p^wpw-hw^Q hlwmb|hnpbh lp6wmlb[ t: Lbp^w-
1500 N50 MOO 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ^OU^USMbP 2
U^hwsnLd-h p^wgwhw^h ^n^n^dwh ^mni^bpQ, 2008-2021 pp.8
UqpjmpQ' Demographic changes in Asia and the Pacific, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/ARM: ^mwqSbpniJ h2lwS bh l^wh^iwmbunLi^bpQ: UqpjmpQ' Demographic changes in Asia and the Pacific, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data
UqpjmpQ' H.H. Lee, K. Shin, Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Japan, April, 2019, page 14, https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/30369/070_hiasDP-E-86.pdf UnuiiJbL dwhpwdwuh mbu' F. Daniele, T.Honiden, A. C. Lembcke, Ageing and productivity growth in OECD regions: Combatting the economic impact of ageing through productivity growth? https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/dc2ae16d-en/index. html?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fcomponent%2Fdc2ae16d-en&fbclid=IwAR3OMqVJ6_ERRvwOHSqrQp6DCPkwao3oL8T6Rjl7bfhM-WeSqY7cs3TsiGjc , mbu hwL S. Aiyar, C. Ebeke and X. Shao (2016), The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity, International Monetary Fund, 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16238.pdf
UqpjmpQ' « lh^w^wq.pwl^wh Ini^imbh ml)w[hbph pwqw, https://statbank.armstat.am/pxweb/hy/ArmStatBank/ArmStat-
Bank_2%20Population%20and%20social%20processes_23%20Employment%20and%20unemployment/PS-eu-11-2021.px/
table/tableViewLayout2/?rxid=9ba7b0d1-2ff8-40fa-a309-fae01ea885bb
e
B
400 300 200 100 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201? 2019 2020 2021
-15-24 -25-34 -35-44 -45-54 55-54 -55-74
q^U^USMbn 3
U^wmnLdfa Qurn mwp^gwj^U ^rfpbp^, 2008-2021 pp. (hmq. dwpq.)9
jhu pmgmumlmb ^srn^bph 2mpnLbm-ImlmbmpjmbQ hhJf t usb^SmJ mnm2h-lm smuQ smpmJ m2^msni.dh plmfm-bmlh b^mqJmb ^srn^bph ^mh^mb-Jmb hmJmp: Uju mnmJn^, mnmbgfmjhb b2mbmlmpjmb mbh m2^msni.dh hmJm-LpJmb hbmpmlnpmpjmbbbph Qb^mjb-Jmbb m^^lmS ^bmwlwb ^pnwlmhl fm-^mfmlmbmpjmb ^mpmJQ:
Pmgmumlmb sb^m2mpdbp bb mpdm-bmqplbL bmL m2^msni.dh ImnmglmS-fmJ: Uju^bu' 2008-2021 pp. blmsbLhn-pbb b^mqbL t 15-24 L 40-55 smphfmjhb ^iJpbph m2^msmdh plmfmbmlQ, ^n-^mpbbQ1 Iplbmlh m6bL 60-64 smphfm-j hb ^JphbQ: ^npmbmJ t 15-24 L 55-64 smphfmjhb Mpbph m2^msmbml pbml-^rnpjmb ^2L «^qmJQ»: bphsmump^bb-ph L smpbgbbph ^2L «6b^flw6fb» wnw-lbL blmsbLh t qpm^lmSmpjmb smph-fmj hb Imnrng^mSfrnJ, nphg tL p^mJ t qpm^lmSbbph «SbpmgJmb» hh^m^b^h-pQ (qSm^mslbp 3):
fab^pmhmpnijg t 20-29 smphfmjhb ^Jph m2^msmdh L hmslm^bu qpm^-ImSbbph plmfmbmlh lp6msmJQ, fmbh np hbbg mju smphfmjhb ^JprnJ bb Qb^-qpllmS mnm^bL «npmljmL» Im^pbpQ: U^jmuml 2-ni.J bpLmJ t, np pmpdpmqnijb L hbspmhmlmb Ippmlmb Jmlmp^ml nibbgn^ m2^msmdQ 20-34 smphfmjhb ^Jph m2^msmdh 44 snlnub t: U2^ms-
mdh Qb^hmbmp p^mfmbmlmJ mnmlb[ Jmubmpmdhb ImqJn^ 35-64 smphfmjhb ^JprnJ pmpdp Ippmlmb Jmlmp-^ml mbh mju smphfmjhb ^Jph m2^ms-mdh Qb^m^bQ ^l bppnp^Q:
QbmjmS bphsmump^ m2^msmdh ^2 mbhm^Jms t pmpdp Ippmlmb Jmlmp^ml mbbgn^bbph JmubmpmdhbQ,
mjbmm^bmjbhl, ^b^pmhmpnijg t lppnL-
pjmb, qpm^lmSmpjmb L ^bpm^mspmus-Jmb SpmqpbpmJ bphsmump^bbph Jmu-bmlgni.pjni.bQ, npb tL JmumJp ^mslbpm-gni.J t smLhu bphsmump^bbph lppmlmb L m2^msmbfmjhb bbpnidh, hb^bu bmL m2^msmdh hmJmLpJmb hbmpm^npm-pjmbbbph Jmuhb: 4bp2hb smubmJjmlmJ lppmpjmb, qpm^lmSmpjmb L ^bpm^ms-pmusJmb ^2 ^bbpmnlmS bphsmump^-bbph (Not in Education, Employment, or Training, NEET) sbumlmpmp l2nh grngm-bh2nl ^mjmusmbQ 2mpmbmlmpmp qb-pmqmbgmJ t bUSU pnLnp bplpbbphb (oph-bml' bpbf mbqmJ m^bLh pmpdp t PbLm-nmuh Jmlmp^mlhg) (qSm^mslbp 4): Um ^hus pmgmumlmb mq^ml t, npQ ilm-jmJ t bphsmump^bbph' unghwLw^bu nhu-lmjhb ^JprnJ hmjsb^bLm ismbqbbph mnm2mgJmb Jmuhb: Ujuhbfb' <mjmusm-bni.J bphsmump^bbpQ, m^bmjb hm^m-bmlmbmpjmJp, lmpn^ bb hmjsblb m^-fwmni.pjwb q6hg bbpfL' ^nihbbwLnl hpbbg sbsbumlmb Ih^mlQ pmpbLm^bLm pm^m-
UqpjnLpQ' « ih^mlrnqprnlmb ln^mbh rn^jmLbbph pmqm, https://statbank.armstat.am/pxweb/hy/ArmStatBank/ArmStat-
Bank_2%20Population%20and%20social%20processes_23%20Employment%20and%20unemployment/PS-eu-11-2021.px/table/
tableViewLayout2/?rxid=9ba7b0d1-2ff8-40fa-a309-fae01ea885bb: Smphfmjhb ^JpbpQ ^n2npmg^bL bb hbqhbwilh ln^^g:
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1. U2^mmmd 2018-2021 pp. , « 4Ji6ml|mqpml|mh L|ni^imb, https://armstat.am/file/article/lab_market_2022_2. pdf
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Ани ХАЧАТРЯН
Старший исследователь исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук
СОЦИАЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА
СТАРЕЮЩАЯ РАБОЧАЯ СИЛА: УЖАСАЮЩАЯ УГРОЗА
Старение населения является серьезной проблемой, угрожающей стран мира. Оно оказывает негативное воздействие на структуру рабочей силы и темпы роста производительности. Армения также не застрахована от нежелательных последствий демографических изменений.
В статье проведен сравнительный анализ демографической ситуации в Армении и странах ЕАЭС. Полученные результаты отражают негативное воздействие старения населения на экономику Армении. Исходя из полученных данных можно утвердить, что проблема постоянного роста доли пожилого населения является большой угрозой для экономики Армении. Это проявляется в сокращение численности рабочей силы и снижении темпов роста производительности труда. В связи с этим, пока не удалось смягчить неблагоприятные последствия старения населения и обеспечить рост производительности труда за счет эффективного использования технологического, экономического и человеческого потенциала.
Ключевые слова: старение населения, демография, рабочая сила, рост производительности
Ani KHACHATRYAN
Senior researcher at «Amberd» Research center, ASUE,
PhD in Economics
SOCIAL POLICY
AGING WORKER: HORRIFIC THREAT
The aging of the population is a serious issue that countries face. It has a negative impact on the structure of the labor force and productivity growth rates. Armenia cannot avoid the undesirable consequences of demographic changes.
The article represents a comparative analysis of the demographic situation in Armenia and the EAEU countries. The recorded results reflect the negative influence of aging population on Armenian economy. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that the problem of the continuous increase in the share of the elderly population is a significant threat to Armenian economy, resulting in a reduction in the number of workforce and growth rate of labor productivity. Consequently, we have not yet been able to mitigate the negative consequences of an aging population and ensure an increase in labor productivity through the effective utilization of technological, economic, and human potential.
Keywords: population aging, demography, labor force, productivity growth
