CC BY
45
УДК 314.7.044:331.5
DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2020-26-5-83-92
CURRENT STATE OF MIGRATION PROCESSES IN MONGOLIA DURING THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC
СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ МИГРАЦИОННЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ В МОНГОЛИИ В ПЕРИОД
ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19
I. Imideeva,
Financial-economic University Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Imideevaiv@mail.ru
И. В. Имидеева,
Финансово-экономический университет, г. Улан-Батор, Монголия
B. Nandintsetseg,
University of the Humanities Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia nandia_miit@mail.ru
Б.Нандинцэцэг,
Гуманитарный университет, г. Улан-Батор, Монголия
The article provides a description of the migration process, migration flows and considers migration processes in Mongolia. Attention was focused on the analysis of changes in the population of the state and the migration situation, and the article notes the results of the changes' study. The results of the population dynamics analysis, including the regions of Mongolia, are shown. The dynamics of the historical population growth of Mongolia is presented, as well as the dynamics and analysis of the total number of immigrants and emigrants over the past ten years.
The current issue of foreign labour migrants affected by the new conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered. The problems of overpopulation and possible solutions to them and existing assumptions of scientists are noted. A theory is presented at the end of the 18th century of an English priest and scholar Thomas Malthus in his published work, "An Experience on the Law of Population", which has influenced the research assumptions of many demographers. The vital activity of human society, its development, functioning obey the laws of nature is noted, and human physical resources must be used in order to increase the amount of food. In their development and existence, the inhabitants of the Earth have become limited by means of subsistence. The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to many different versions of the appearance, one of the most common which is aimed at reducing the world's population, where nature itself struggles with all ailments, triggering possible transformations in the form of epidemics, suicides, cataclysms and similar kinds of actions, thereby self-cleaning.
The interconnection between the demographic and social policies of the country and its economic and political security is presented. Thus, on the basis of a combination of theoretical and practical principles, migration features are highlighted, labour migration in Mongolia is noted, labour migration in Mongolia during the COVID-19 pandemic, the main trends and causes of migration are identified, the role of coronavirus in a difficult economic world period and recommendations are made to reduce outflow of the population of Mongolia, ways to reduce risks and new trends in the country's behaviour
Key words: migration; migration process; socio-economic state; types of migration; population inflow; outflow; population of Mongolia; migration dynamics; population movement; socio-political state
В статье представлено описание процесса миграции, миграционных потоков и рассмотрены миграционные процессы в Монголии. Акцентировано внимание на анализе изменения численности населения государства и миграционной ситуации и отмечены результаты исследования изменений. Показаны результаты анализа динамики численности населения, в том числе и по районам Монголии. Представлена динамика исторического роста населения Монголии, также за последние десять лет - динамика и анализ общей численности иммигрирующих и эмигрирующих.
Рассматривается актуальный вопрос об иностранных трудовых мигрантах, затрагиваемых в новых условиях пандемии COVID-19. Омечаются проблемы перенаселения и возможные пути их решения и
83 © I. Mem, B. Nandintsetseg, 2020
имеющиеся предположения ученых. Теория английского священника и учёного Т. Мальтуса приведена в конце XVIII в., в изданном труде «Опыт о законе народонаселения», повлияла на исследовательские предположения многих демографов. Отмечается, что жизнедеятельность человеческого общества, его развитие, функционирование подчиняются законам природы, а физические ресурсы человека необходимо использовать для того, чтобы увеличивать количество продовольствия. В своем развитии и существовании жители Земли стали ограничены средствами существования. Пандемия СОУЮ-19 породила множество различных версий: одна из самых распространенных - с целью сокращения населения Земли, где природа сама борется со всеми недугами, запуская возможные трансформации в виде эпидемий, суицидов, катаклизмов и подобного рода действий, таким образом самоочищаясь.
Представлена взаимосвязь между демографической, социальной политикой страны и его экономи-ческо-политической безопасностью. Таким образом, на основе совокупности теоретических и практических принципов выделены особенности миграции, отмечена трудовая миграция в Монголии, трудовая миграция в Монголии в период пандемии СОУЮ-19, выявлены основные тенденции и причины миграции, роль коронавируса в трудный экономический мировой период и приведены рекомендации по снижению оттока населения Монголии, пути снижения рисков и новые тенденции в поведении страны
Ключевые слова: миграция; миграционный процесс; социально-экомическое состояние; типы миграции; приток населения; отток населения; население Монголии; динамика миграции; движение населения; социально-политическое состояние
Relevance: Migration can be defined as one of the most complex social phenomena characterized by great diversity. Migration flows are usually directed from less developed to more developed countries and regions where there are quite favourable socio-economic conditions (for example, a high level of wages prevails). According to rough estimates, in the world every year about 2...3 % of the population is involved in various forms of migration [1]. It is assumed that the English scientist E. G. Ravenstein was the very first to give one of the first scientific concepts of migration in 1885-1889.
The process of population migration includes the following stages: this is the preparatory stage, that is, migration itself, then of course adaptation to the new living conditions that were characteristic of the nomadic lifestyle of the population of Mongolia at all times. In the beginning, the process of territorial determination, in particular the mobility of population, was always determined and occurred, and then the resettlement process, during which the adaptation process was carried out.
The dynamics and trends of migration activity of the able-bodied population are decisive for the economic growth of individual regions - the country's aimaks. Currently, one of the features of migration processes in Mongolia is increased migration activity among the young population, the outflow is especially among young people 18...30 years old [13]. This trend continues throughout the last decade, although this trend has been present almost always, this trend has objective and subjective reasons.
Settlers are characterized by three types of adaptation: adaptation to the socio-demograph-ic environment, adaptation necessary for moving to large cities, and adaptation to climatic and geographical conditions. The above stages of migration are necessary conditions under which migrants will be able to settle in new places of residence. In this regard, there are problems of overpopulation of countries, which must be paid attention to during the global pandemic COVID-19.
It gave rise to many possible assumptions, including all mentioning the planned reduction in the population of the planet, and for this purpose they launched the coronavirus. Today, the Earth is oversaturated, nature is being degraded by various industries, and throughout the history of mankind it has found various ways to cleanse itself in the water of deadly infections, wars, epidemics, etc. And natural resources lead to the following interpretations: how many people can accommodate and feed the planet and how much more resources are enough to support the growing humanity. At the end of the XVIII century the English priest and scholar Thomas Malthus published the work "Experience on the Law of Population", which affected many demographers and their works.
In his scientific work, the scientist made an attempt to explain the laws of fertility, nup-tiality, mortality, and the socio-demographic structure of the world's population in terms of biological factors. Malthus's ideas are used in other sciences, including economic theory and political economy. The theory, which arose on the basis of scientific works and the concept
of a researcher, was called Malthusianism. The main theses of the theory "The concept of population", developed by Malthus, is based not on social laws, but on biological factors. The main provisions of the theory of the scientist from England are as follows: The population of our planet is growing exponentially. The production of food, money, resources, without which human life is impossible, occurs in accordance with the principles of arithmetic progression. The growth of the planet's population is directly related to the laws of reproduction existing in nature. It is growth that determines the level of well-being of society. The vital activity of human society, its development, functioning obey the laws of nature. Human physical resources must be used in order to increase the amount of food. In their development and existence, the inhabitants of the Earth are limited by means of subsistence. Only war, famine, epidemics, and disease can stop the growth of the world's population. The last thesis, Malthus tried to develop further, arguing that overpopulation still cannot be avoided. Hunger and epidemics, according to the scientist, are not able to fully cope with the problems of population growth. Therefore, it is necessary to create additional tools to regulate the increase in the number of inhabitants on the planet [16].
The scientist linked and looked for the interdependence of natural and economic factors. This direction has become and was very relevant for Mongolia, since with a small population of the country, the main activity is agriculture, there are vast pastures.
In a pandemic, the population of Mongolia has turned out to be healthy and strong in many respects, and food quality and lifestyle confirmed this theory, a quick reaction to this situation became good protection for a long period, the main indicator of the population's self-regulation is the limited means and resources, the use of organic food. The Mongols always knew how to fight hunger, and this time with the epidemic, in the history of the country it was never noted that the population was starving, all due to the consumption of natural agricultural products, the food industry, in particular the dairy.
There is a place to be: the richer the society, the fewer children are born, this is the law of demography, notes associate professor of the Department of Medical Sciences of the University of Ottawa, Reivat Deonandan. Now the level of poverty is lower than ever in human history, and everything speaks for the fact that in the fore-
seeable future we will see further successes in combating it. This will manifest itself in a slowdown in population growth and, ultimately, in its reduction [3]. In Russia, for example, for every three babies born, four people die.
Demographers believe that over the next decades, the world's population will reach the limit and then begin to decline, but on this issue, the decision on the number can be decided much earlier, caused by the pandemic.
The object of the study is the population of Mongolia during the global pandemic COVID-19.
The subject of the study is the migration processes of Mongolia under the influence of various factors, including historical and social.
Purpose: to reflect and maximize the state of migration processes in Mongolia during the global pandemic COVID-19.
The objectives of this study are the following:
- influence of historical factors on the country's population growth;
- determination of the relationship between the demographic, social political side of the country and its economic and political security;
- study of the impact of the global COV-ID-19 pandemic on the movement of migration processes;
- to note labour migration in Mongolia as a separate factor;
- provide recommendations on reducing the outflow of the population of Mongolia;
- it is necessary to identify the main trends and causes of migration in the country and recommendations for reducing the outflow of the country's population.
Method of argumentation: the article is devoted to the study of the specifics of argumentation in demography. Particular attention is paid to history and statistical data, as a tool for transmitting the main reference data, where the factual and value arguments are mainly and mainly used.
The article discusses the methodological problems of modern demographic and economic research. The bases, types and elements of the demographic-historical methodology are revealed. In the context of the demographic history boundaries, the role of historical demography in scientific research is shown. It has revealed the dominant and distinctive features of scientific, historical and modern knowledge, systematized its elements. The research methods were social and historic studies based on state statistics, the collection and selection of statistical data, historical materials, as well as sociological
studies conducted in Mongolia, give an overall picture of the migration situation.
Status of the problem. The problems of the current state are as follows; during the twentieth century, the population of Mongolia increased significantly. About nine times the population grew from 1935 to 2010. In 1918, the Russian scientist I. M. Maisky, was involved in the census of Mongolia and counted 647.5 thousand people. It included the number of Chinese and Russians engaged in trade and work in Mongolia, while the number of people living in the aimak of Khovd, on the slopes of Lake Khuvs-gul and on the Great Buddhist Territory, was not taken into account [4]. According to the 1935 census, there were 738.2 thousand people, after 17 years since 1918 they reached 90.7 thousand people, with an average annual increase of 0.77 percent. Due to the erroneous and incorrect state and government policies, the population had to move to different places, experience persecution from 1930 to 1934, when over 37,700 people from all over the country left the territory.
In 1932, as a result of an armed uprising in Mongolia, more than 6,000 people died, in 1944 their number was 759.1 thousand people, having increased over the course of 9 years to 21.3 thousand people, while the average annual growth was 0.32 %.
An important event was the fact that there were repressions that led to a recession and to
the death of more than 3,000 people in Mongolia.
In the middle of the last century, the country's population was 845.5 thousand people, and over 12 years - 86.0 thousand people, favourable conditions were created for peaceful social, economic and health development. And in a long time in 1963, the population reached 1017.1 thousand, and the average annual growth amounted to 2.7 %. In 1969, the population of Mongolia amounted to 1197.6 thousand people and the average annual growth rate was 2.8 percent. In 1979, it reached 1595.0 thousand. It is necessary to note that, unlike the whole world in Mongolia, people did not limit themselves to the number of children, and in the last ten years the dynamics has increased. There are several reasons for this, but the fact remains: the fertility rate (which is also the total fertility rate - the average number of children born per woman) in Europe is already 1.6. And for the population to grow, this indicator, the most important in demography, must in no way be less than 2.1. In the United States, Japan, China, and most South American countries, fertility rates are now lower than substitution rates. While in Africa it is still high (on the top line of the Niger - 6.5) [14], it is clear that with the improvement in welfare, the indicator will decrease worldwide, but this is not what statistics show.
Fig. 1. Chart of the total number of Mongolia by years from 1935 to 2015 [12] / Рис. 1. Диаграмма общей численности Монголии по годам в период 1935-2015 г. [12]
According to the 1989 census, there were 2044.0 thousand people, and for comparison, in 2015 the number reached 3057.8 according to the same census. It should be noted that 25 children born on July 11, 1988, were approved as the 2 millionth citizens, while the average annual growth was 2.5 percent. In 2000, the eighth census of the population of Mongolia was
held, numbering 2,373.5 thousand people, with an annual increase of 1.4 percent.
Since the early 1990s, there have been many reasons for the transition to market relations and changes in social and economic development. According to the 2010 census, it has reached 2754.6 thousand people. On January 24, 2015, the third million Mongol people were born [13].
Table 1 / Таблица 1
Population of Mongolia by aimaks/districts [12] / Численность населения Монголии по аймакам/районам [12]
Aimak /Аймак 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Country profile / Национальный обзор 2,963,113 3,026,864 3,088,856 3,148,917 3,208,189
Western region / Западный регион 371.097 384.742 391.831 396.886 404.841
Bayan-Ulgii / Баян-влгий 93.802 97.67 100.18 101.388 103.847
Gobi-Altai / Говь-Алтай 55.032 56.472 56.398 57.036 57.977
Zavkhan / Завхан 67.151 69.824 70.231 71.048 72.165
Uvs / Уве 74.882 78.278 81.02 81.983 83.499
Hovd/Ховд 80.23 82.498 84.002 85.431 87.353
Khangai region / Хангайекая облаеть 551.467 573.666 580.062 588.257 598.999
Arkhangai /Архангай 89.37 92.573 92.597 94.12 95.913
Bayankhongor / Баянхонгор 80.738 83.49 84.371 85.7 87.475
Bulgan / Булган 57.508 60.254 60.308 60.946 61.751
Orkhon / Орхон 94.184 97.576 101.26 102.893 104.992
Uvurkhangai / Увурхангай 107.306 112.672 112.755 114.127 116.105
Khuvsgul / Хувегул 122.361 127.101 128.771 130.471 132.763
Central zone / Центральный район 475.044 482.851 489.009 498.408 508.879
Govisumber / Говье/мбэр 15.43 16.29 16.724 17.155 17.59
Darkhan-Uu l / Дархан-Уул 99.458 100.443 101.408 102.975 104.999
Dornogovi / Дорноговь 63.172 64.538 65.859 67.299 68.725
Dundgovi / Дундговь 40.857 44.39 44.595 45.259 46.191
South Gobi / Южная Гоби 63.422 60.674 62.481 64.311 66.018
Selenge / Сэлэнгэ 104.702 106.252 106.902 108.559 110.504
Central / Центральный аймаг 88.003 90.264 91.04 92.85 94.852
Eastern region / Воеточный регион 197.997 205.974 209.586 213.656 218.296
East / Воеточный аймаг 73.361 75.835 77.028 78.512 80.214
Sukhbaatar / Сухэбатор 55.285 58.229 59.422 60.471 61.726
Khentii / Хэнтий 69.351 71.91 73.136 74.673 76.356
Ulaanbaatar / Улан-Батор 1,367,508 1,379,631 1,418,368 1,451,710 1,477,174
The total population of Mongolia reached In 2018, 78,444 children were born across
3,238,479 in 2018, an increase of 60,580 or 1.91 the country (Fig. 2). percent over the previous year.
Fig. 2. Chart of the total number of Mongolia by yearsn Between 2009 and 2018 [12] / Рис. 2. Диаграмма общей численности Монголии по годам в период с 2009 по 2018 [12]
It is necessary to note that 63.77 percent of the total population is younger than 35 years old. In particular, 30.94 % or 1 002 052 of the total population are children aged 0...14, 62.4 % or 2,020,696 people are people aged 15.59, and 6.66 % or 215 731 people are elderly people aged 60 years and older (fig. 3) [13].
Article 18.1 of the Law on State Civil Registration of Mongolia [16] states that "a citizen must be registered for permanent residence for
a period of more than 180 days and for temporary residence for a period of 180 days or less".
Defined according to the international methodology, the criteria for determining a migrant are 1 month, 1 year, 5 years, etc. In the case of Mongolia, those who come to the area for 6 months or more are considered migrants. People leaving their homeland are defined as migrants, as noted above.
Fig. 3. Chart of the total population of Mongolia by gender [12] / Рис. 3. Диаграмма общей численности Монголии по полу [12]
At the end of 2018, 31,429 people migrat- (16.1 %), and emigration decreased by 2,996 ed and 29,810 people left. As compared to the (9.1 %) (Fig. 4). previous year, immigration decreased by 6014
Fig. 4. Chart of the total number of immigrants and emigrants [12] / Рис. 4. Диаграмма общей численности
иммигрирующих и эмигрирующих [12]
From the point of view of the age groups of migrants. In terms of gender, 48.3 percent of of migrants, in 2018, 0...4 and 20...34 years old migrants are men, and 51.7 percent are women accounted for 55.0 percent of the total number (fig. 4).
Fig. 5. Chart of total migrants by number, gender and age in 2018 / [12] Рис. 5. Диаграмма общей мигрантов по численности, полу и возрасту в 2018 г. [12]
Discussion of the results. The main reason for the outflow of emigration is the departure of the population to more favourable climatic zones of the country, if it is related to internal migration, but it is insignificant, the main outflow goes to South Korea, Japan, the USA, and Europe. The reason for emigration is unemployment, insecurity, a volatile political situation in the country, as well as a large number of other facts that influence the decision to move (emigration).
In the fall, the emigration of young people who study at more prestigious universities and
work in the above countries usually increases. Their share in migration losses annually is about 40 % of the total migration loss of youth. The prospect of changing labour demand is the creation of jobs in the framework of the implementation of priority national and investment projects, federal, sectoral, regional and local development programs.
In terms of the number of labour resources in Mongolia in 2019, according to the statistical services, it amounted to 1937.1 thousand people, of which 920.8 thousand, i.e. 47.5 %
are men [12]. Over the years, the amount of labour resources has changed somewhat, the dynamics have been exceeded.
At the same time, the growth of foreign labour migrants was observed in 2010-2017 [10], until the crisis and the jump in the dollar, since 2018, in order to ensure state security and priority employment of citizens of the country, the result was a reduction in quotas for attracting foreign labour and significantly decreased. By the end of 2017, the number of foreign citizens from neighboring countries of China [10] who are engaged in labour activities in various industries under patents was also reduced.
Research results and discussion. According to the forecast for 2020-2021 [19], a possible reduction in the number of people of working age is expected due to the age structure of the population.
The number of economically active population in 2019 from 15 years to 64 years old amounted to 1,198.3 thousand people, which is 61.9 % and among them it is 92 % of the able-bodied population [12]. The gradual recovery of the country's economy after the global financial crisis has affected the growth in the
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Briefly about the authors_
Irina Imideeva, candidate of economic sciences, senior worker, International department, University of Finance and Economics, Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar. Sphere of scientific interests: economics, migration, migration processes, economics of production, economics of organizations, regional economics, industrial economics. Imideevaiv@mail.ru
Boldbaatar Nandintsetseg, candidate of economic sciences, teacher, Business Administration department, University of the Humanities, Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar. Sphere of scientific interests: economics, migration, migration processes, economics of production, economics of organizations, regional economics, industrial economics. nandia_miit@mail.ru
Коротко об авторах _
Имидеева Ирина Владимировна, канд. экон. наук, старший сотрудник международного отдела, Финансово-экономический университет, г. Улан-Батор, Монголия. Область научных интересов: экономика, миграция, миграционные процессы, экономика производства, экономика организаций, региональная экономика, экономика промышленности
Болдбаатар Нандинцэцэг, , канд. экон. наук, преподаватель кафедры делового администрирования, Гуманитарный университет, г. Улан-Батор, Монголия. Область научных интересов: экономика, миграция, миграционные процессы, экономика производства, экономика организаций, региональная экономика, экономика промышленности
Образец цитирования_
Imideevа I. V, Boldbaatar Nandintsetseg, Current state of migration processes in Mongolia during the COVID-19 pandemic// Transbaikal State University Journal, 2020, vol. 26, no. 5, pp. 83-92. DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2020-26-5-83-92.
Имидеева И. В., Болдбаатар Нандинцэцэг. Современное состояние миграционных процессов в монголии в период пандемии COVID-19//Вестник Забайкальского государственного университета. 2020. Т. 26, № 5. С. 83-92. DOI: 10.21209/2227-9245-2020-26-5-83-92.
Статья поступила в редакцию: 12.05.2020 г. Статья принята к публикации: 13.05.2020 г
