Научная статья на тему 'Основные итоги миграционных процессов в Калининградской области по данным переписей и микропереписей 1989-2015 годов'

Основные итоги миграционных процессов в Калининградской области по данным переписей и микропереписей 1989-2015 годов Текст научной статьи по специальности «Социальная и экономическая география»

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Ключевые слова
МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ ПОТОКИ / МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ КОНТИНГЕНТЫ / МИГРАЦИЯ / ПЕРЕПИСЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ / МИКРОПЕРЕПИСЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ / ПРОГРАММА "СООТЕЧЕСТВЕННИКИ" / MIGRATION FLOWS / MIGRANT STOCK / MIGRATION / CENSUS / MICROCENSUS / REPATRIATION PROGRAMME

Аннотация научной статьи по социальной и экономической географии, автор научной работы — Абылкаликов Салават Иргалиевич, Сазин Виталий Сергеевич

Калининградская область является регионом с особой историей и географическим положением. Фактически в послевоенное время область заселялась «с нуля». К освоению новых территорий привлекались выходцы из многих частей России и других республик бывшего СССР. Демографические и миграционные процессы, связанные с населением региона, изучены в достаточно высокой степени. Тем не менее авторы статьи полагают, что использование данных переписей и микропереписей о миграционных контингентах может существенно дополнить имеющийся багаж знаний об этом уникальном регионе, в частности об итогах миграционных процессов, сложившихся на моменты проведения демографических обследований. Данный поход существенно отличается от ставшего традиционным в отечественных исследованиях миграции при помощи статистики текущего учета как источниками данных, так и критериями выделения самой миграции. В работе использована информация о месте рождения по данным переписей населения 1989, 2002, 2010 годов, микропереписей 1994 и 2015 годов. Было установлено, что в последние десятилетия постепенно возрастает доля местных уроженцев, а также выходцев из постсоветских азиатских стран. Вклад уроженцев Беларуси и Украины в формирование населения области при этом стремительно снижается во многом за счет смены поколений с иной миграционной историей.

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MIGRATION IN THE KALININGRAD REGION REFLECTED IN THE 1989-2015 CENSUSES AND MICROCENSUSES

The Kaliningrad region stands out for its history and geographical location. In the post-war period, the region was completely repopulated. People from many parts of Russia and other republics of the former USSR were recruited to develop the new territory. Although demographic processes and migration in the Kaliningrad region have been studied in detail, we believe that census and micro-census data can significantly advance the current knowledge of this unique region. This holds true for the data relating to the results of pre-survey migration. This approach differs markedly from traditional migration studies in Russia, which rely on migration flow data, in both data sources and migration criteria employed. Our study uses the place of birth data from the 1989, 2002, and 2010 censuses and the 1994 and 2015 microcensuses. We conclude that the proportions of residents born locally and in post-Soviet Asian countries have been increasing in recent decades. At the same time, the contribution of the natives of Belarus and Ukraine to the region's population is rapidly declining, largely due to the change of generations having a different migration history.

Текст научной работы на тему «Основные итоги миграционных процессов в Калининградской области по данным переписей и микропереписей 1989-2015 годов»

MIGRATION IN THE KALININGRAD REGION REFLECTED IN THE 1989—2015 CENSUSES

AND MICROCENSUSES

S. I. Abylkalikov1

V. S. Sazin2

1 National Research University Higher School of Economics,

20, Myasnitskaya St., Moscow, 101000, Russia.

2 Saint Petersburg Campus of the National Research University Higher School of Economics,

16 Soyuza Pechatnikov St., St. Petersburg, 190121, Russia.

Submitted on May 12, 2018

doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2019-2-3

© Abylkalikov S.I., Sazin V. S., 2019

The Kaliningrad region stands out for its history and geographical location. In the post-war period, the region was completely repopulated. People from many parts of Russia and other republics of the former USSR were recruited to develop the new territory. Although demographic processes and migration in the Kaliningrad region have been studied in detail, we believe that census and micro-census data can significantly advance the current knowledge of this unique region. This holds true for the data relating to the results of pre-survey migration. This approach differs markedly from traditional migration studies in Russia, which rely on migration flow data, in both data sources and migration criteria employed. Our study uses the place of birth data from the 1989, 2002, and 2010 censuses and the 1994 and 2015 microcensuses. We conclude that the proportions of residents born locally and in post-Soviet Asian countries have been increasing in recent decades. At the same time, the contribution of the natives of Belarus and Ukraine to the region's population is rapidly declining, largely due to the change of generations having a different migration history.

Keywords: migration flows, migrant stock, migration, census, microcensus, repatriation programme

Introduction

In the postwar period, the Kaliningrad region was settled by Soviet citizens from other parts of the Soviet Union. The process of settling the Kaliningrad region has been the subject of research since the 1960s [1]. In these works, the economic aspects of the region's development are given more importance than the demographic ones [2; 3]. Basic data on the scale of relocations were contained in classified and unpublished sources of in-

Baltic Region. 2019. Vol. 11. Ms 2. P. 32—50.

formation. This was the main problem of obtaining information for analysis. Y. Kostyashov systematized archival sources and conducted a complete study on the database, after data and information on the scale of resettlement had been declassified [4]. Other authors — G. Fedorov, Yu. Zverev and V. Korneevets also published works on the peculiarities of the region [5].

In the post-Soviet period, the scientific work on migration processes in the Kaliningrad region can be divided into two groups. In the first group, on the basis of statistical sources, the population size is analyzed, and its dynamics is projected [6] and migration processes in the region are considered [7]. In the second group, qualitative research methods are used, the society of the region and its features are studied [8; 9]. The migration intentions of the residents of the region to move to other regions and countries are also analyzed [10]. Studies are carried out to determine their trajectories through qualitative and quantitative methods, the relations of the host society to immigrants are also considered [11].

The Prussian Statistical Office conducted the first full-scale Population Census in 1816. It showed that the total population of East Prussia was approximately 860 thousand people, and in the second census of 1871, there lived 1.8 million people. In 1919, after the First World War, the population was 2.2 million people in East Prussia, and by the beginning of the Second World War, there were approximately 2.49 million people [12]. At that time, 1.3 million people lived on the territory of the Kaliningrad region within its present borders. Until the end of the 1940s, the German-speaking population that remained after the war was deported to Germany almost entirely.

The first document determining the order of mass resettlement of families of Soviet citizens to new Soviet territories was the Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the USSR No. 1522 of July 9, 1946. Resettlement to the Kaliningrad region was supposed to be voluntary, using the mechanisms of the state resettlement programme. Since the 1950s, the population of the region has been characterized by constant growth, which was caused by positive values of migration and natural growth. In 1950, the population of the Kaliningrad region was about 400 thousand people. According to the census of 1959, the population was more than 600 thousand people. The 1989 census showed a twofold increase in population. Nevertheless, the population of the region is still less than that before the Second World War.

Not all settlers moving to the area remained to live there in a new place. In the Russian-language literature, the process of the immigrants not taking root in the new territory was named "obratnichestvo" (Back-Resettling) [13]. The share of people who left the territory of the Kaliningrad region was about 38 % of the total number of incoming migrants.

A large number of military units of the Soviet army in the region influenced the nature of migration and spelled the increase in the male population aged 18—55 years. This property of the formation of the population of the region by sex and age is preserved even now.

The Kaliningrad region is a unique, but well-studied territory in terms of migration. Domestic researchers pay insufficient attention to population censuses, which are sources of information on migratory contingents. Usually, Russian researchers use current data on migration flows from publicly available sources. Data on migration contingents helps clearly determine how many migrants (interregional and international) live in the territory at the time of the census. Also, with a certain degree of error, this makes it possible to get data of microcensus (this type of survey is limited to a sample of the population, usually large in size). Data on migration flows does not allow this. In this regard, the results of migration processes that emerged at the time of the censuses are identified, and it is estimated how people from other regions and countries contribute to the formation of the region's population.

Summarizing, an attempt was made to determine the results of applying two approaches to the study of migration: the first with the help of information about flows and the second approach about migration contingents in the Kaliningrad region. Studying the indicators of international migration and the results of the programme of resettlement of compatriots is an important task of determining the characteristics of the region. The selected approach allows determining the ratio of local and non-native natives who came from other regions of the Russian Federation and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries and abroad. In this paper, it was studied for the period of 1989—2015 year.

Methods and materials

The main sources of statistical information on migration in Russia are population censuses, microcensuses, and current statistical accounting and statistics provided by government agencies. Each of these sources has its own characteristics and limitations, both in terms of completeness of coverage, and in the very criteria for the identification of migrants and migration flows [14]. In this work, we used the current statistical accounting of migration1, and departmental sources from government agencies. Also, census and microcensus data for the years 1989—2015 were used, including unpublished materials of the 1989 census, microcensuses of 1994, as well as the databases of the 2002 and 2010 censuses and the microcensus 20152.

In the periods between censuses, current statistical accounting is the main source of migration information. It allows to receive operational information about migration flows since events are recorded immediately

1 United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia. URL: https://fedstat.ru/ (accessed 15 June 2019).

2 Database of censuses of the population of Russia 2002 and 2010. URL: http://vpnmicrodata.gks.ru/webapi/opendatabase?id=VPN2002_2010L (accessed 15 January 2019); Database of censuses of the population of Russia 2015. URL: http://vpnmicrodata.gks.ru/webapi/jsf/tableView/tableView.xhtml (accessed 15 January 2019).

by government agencies. It takes into account only registered migrants who have arrived for permanent residence (a person with such status is known as a permanent resident). It is possible that many migrants who live without registration at the place of residence are not considered. Also, the problem is that during this period the same person can register several times, because of this, the rates of migration flows increase.

The magnitude of migration flows is also affected by changes in the criteria and parameters of accounting for migration. In 2011, for example, the method of registering migrants was changed. After receiving the results of the population census, the error in the difference in accounting for migrants is calculated through changes in annual migration flows, while the natural movement of the population (mortality and fertility) remains according to the registration data, because the natural movement of the population is considered more accurately than the mechanical movement of the population [15].

Statistics provided by the government is usually used to study certain categories of migrants, and they are carried out by such agencies as the Border Service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, the Federal Migration Service (the Main Directorate for Migration Affairs), etc. For example, data on participants in the Programme of Resettlement of Compatriots to the Russian Federation refers to this type of statistics.

In difference from the sources listed, population census data relate to a specific point in time. This is a kind of "snapshot", which is the result of past demographic events lasting for a long time before the census. Russian researchers did not sufficiently use information from the population census to estimate migration processes. There were no questions about migration in the census questionnaire of 1937, 1939 and 1959, but they were in 1897 and 1926. In the 1970 and 1979 censuses, there was no question about the place of birth, which was very important.

In the post-1989 censuses, the question of the place of birth was included in the questionnaire. Also, this question appeared in the microcen-suses of the population of 1994 and 2015. Based on this information, it is possible to determine the composition of the population by the place of birth of residents of each region of Russia at the moment of the census. Migration, identified on the basis of the discrepancy between the place of birth and place of residence, is called lifetime migration because it is impossible to establish the time when a move took place throughout life. Migrant flows data accounts for the number of migrants entering or leaving during a specified time period. Population census allows one to get information about the data on migrant stocks [16].

Indicators characterizing the aggregate of migrants as an object of statistical research are thus data on migrant contingents and on migration flows. At the same time, the figures on contingents take into account the movements of people who were not registered, and this method also allows you to avoid the mistake of re-recording the same person. Thus, the positive aspects of this approach constitute a more accurate assessment and do not affect changes in the methodology of current statistical accounting.

The long intervals between censuses are a disadvantage. Typically, censuses are conducted every 10 years. Microcensuses are conducted between censuses.

The study of population migration using data from population censuses is common in international research, less so in Russia [17].

Results

The population in 2015 exceeded the figures for 1989 only in three regions of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia. These are the Kaliningrad region, the Leningrad region and the city of St. Petersburg (Fig. 1). These regions have a positive balance of migration growth during the study period since these regions are most attractive to migrants. From 1989 to 2015, the population of the Kaliningrad region increased by 11 %. It is important to look at which components of the population grew, but also what are the structural changes during this period.

Fig. 1. The change in the population of the regions of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia in relation to 1989 (%)

Source: United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia, The Demographic Yearbook of Russia.

From 1997 to 2007 there was a negative rate of natural increase (RNI) in the Kaliningrad region, which was partially offset by migration growth (Fig. 2). Since 2007, there has been a decrease in the difference between mortality and fertility in the region, which, with a migration increase, has led to an overall increase in the population.

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Fig. 2. The components of population growth for the period 1989—2016, the Kaliningrad region, (thousands)

* TPC — Total Population Change

Source: United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia, the Demographic Yearbook of Russia.

The method of accounting for migrants changed in 2011. The number of migrants by place of residence now included persons registered for a period of 9 months or more. These migrants could be temporary. From that point on, an increase in migration rates was recorded for this reason. The composition of such migrants, for example, included foreign students, whose registration at the place of their stay is possible for one calendar year. Thus, the increase in the number of arrivals and migrants de-registered is associated with a change in methodology, since now in the number of migrants de-registered also includes migrants whose tenure has ended. Since 2011 in Russia, the proportion of such persons has averaged about half of the number of persons registered at the place of residence. For the Kaliningrad region, these changes in the method of statistical accounting of migrants were very significant. In 2010, the net migration was equal to 3.3 thousand people, then in 2011 it was twice as large and amounted to 6.4 thousand people, and by 2014 it reached 10 thousand people.

Consider the migration components of the Kaliningrad region by countries of exchange (Fig. 3). Mainly, those who arrived in the Kaliningrad region were residents of neighbouring countries (The Commonwealth of Independent States) and inhabitants of other regions of Russia [18]. At the same time, the outflow of the population for a long time occurred in the far-abroad countries from the Kaliningrad region.

Fig. 3. The migration components of the Kaliningrad region by countries of exchange, (thousands)

Source: United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia, he Federal State Statistics Service in the Kaliningrad region.

The net migration indicator of the Kaliningrad region has three pronounced periods. In the 1990s there were high rates, which decreased from 1999 to 2010. Since 2011, this indicator increased again. The reason for the decline from 1999 to 2010 remains unknown, as the reduction may have been associated with changes in accounting methods [19].

A special feature for the Kaliningrad region is high net migration for international migration per 1000 inhabitants of the region. This feature is especially visible in comparison with other regions of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia (Fig. 4). In 2012—2015, a sharp increase was observed in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region with a further decline in migration rates, perhaps these were statistical errors. In this case, perhaps the true values are close to the average annual indicators.

Migration of the population not only allows solving the problem of labor shortage but also demographic problems. For this reason, a special programme is operating in Russia — The Programme of Resettlement of Compatriots to the Russian Federation. This Programme was adopted by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated June 28, 2008 No. 637 and involves the resettlement of foreign citizens who belong to the category of compatriots to a permanent place of residence in a specific subject of the Russian Federation [20]. According to the programme, participants received basic rights of residents of the Russian Federation in terms of medical care, employment, benefits for temporary disability.

Fig. 4. The international net migration per 1,000 inhabitants, %o, 1993—2016

Source: United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia.

The Kaliningrad region is the territory where this programme has been operating since the very beginning in 2007. Under this programme, it was planned to resettle 300,000 compatriots from other countries to the Kaliningrad region in the period 2007—2012. However, the plan was completed by less than 5 %. Even with low rates of implementation of the plan, the region has become one of the leaders in attracting compatriots in the Northwestern Federal District of Russia regions and throughout the country as a whole (Table 1).

Table 1

The number of participants of the Programme of Resettlement of Compatriots to the Russian Federation by regions of the Russian Federation in 2007—2016, people

Region 2007—2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total

Kaluga Region 9814 4462 10 168 12 543 12 530 49 517

Lipetsk Region 10 814 3322 5416 11 820 9786 41 158

Voronezh Region 2118 2692 5666 13 751 15 877 40 104

Kaliningrad Region 13 302 3246 5381 5213 4368 31 510

Tula Region 243 833 7662 12 030 9684 30 452

Russian Federation 57 990 34 697 106 319 183 146 142 935 525 087

Source: data received on request from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

The goals and objectives of this programme were initially determined at the federal level. Since 2013, its goals and objectives have been determined by regions. Each region participating in the programme develops its own subroutines. In the Kaliningrad region, there is the Programme of the Resettlement of Compatriots to the Kaliningrad region3. In 2012, the number of participants in the programme decreased sharply (Fig. 5). This is due to the fact that the federal programme operated for six months.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

— moved to the Kaliningrad region foreign citizens _the number of participants in the program

Fig. 5. The Programme of Resettlement

of Compatriots to the Russian Federation (2005—2016), thousand people

Source: United Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia. Data received on request from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

Given the experience of the implementation of the federal level programme, the regional programme has lower targets. According to the new plan, the region was to attract about 4,000 participants a year. This plan is quite feasible, given the statistics of past years. Since 2008, the main part of the arriving international migrants are participants in the resettlement programme in the Kaliningrad region.

Most of the residents of the Kaliningrad region were those born in mainland Russia, according to the 1989—2010 censuses and the micro-censuses of 1994 and 2015. The ratio of the number of those born in the Kaliningrad region and those who came from other regions of Russia varied greatly over time. In 1989, residents who were born in the Kalinin-

3 Subprogramme "The programme of compatriots to the Kaliningrad region", for 2018—2020".

grad region accounted for about 40 % of the population of the region (359.2 thousand people), in 2002—48.2% (460.1 thousand people), and by 2010 they were more than 50 % (478.7 thousand people) (Fig. 6). According to the census in 2010, there was an abnormal increase in the number of people who did not indicate the place of birth. In order to be able to compare the data of the 1989 census and other censuses, the proportion of persons who did not indicate the place of birth was merged with a group of persons who indicated the birthplace of foreign countries. According to 1989 census, there were 12.8 thousands of such people, in 2002—17.6 thousand, and in 2010 — 46.4 thousand people (38.2 thousand of them arrived from unspecified territories).

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Fig. 6. Structure of the population of the Kaliningrad region by place of birth, %, (data — thousands of people)

* Western republics of the former USSR: Belarus, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Moldova; ** Eastern republics of the former USSR: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia (together with the autonomies), Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan

Source: based on the results of the census in Russia.

The proportion of those born in the region annually increases (Fig. 7). The reason is that the first inhabitants born in the region were born only after 1945. In the 1973 generation, according to the 1994 microcensus, those born in the Kaliningrad Region were 73 % of the region's population, 82 % in the 1983 generation, and 97% in the 1993 generation.

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Fig. 7. The share of persons born in the Kaliningrad region among the inhabitants of the region, by year of birth (in 1994),%

Source: based on the results of the microcensus of 1994 year in Russia.

In Russia as a whole, the data obtained during the micro-census of the population in 2015 is representative4, but in the Kaliningrad region a sample shift was possible. According to the results of this micro-census of the population in the region, there was an increase in the proportion of people born in the region from 50.8 to 60.4 % (Fig. 6). The microcensus of the population in 2015 was conducted on a sample of 1.5% of the country's total population, and the 1994 microcensus covered 5% of Russians.

In shaping the population structure of the Kaliningrad region, people from the central part of Russia have a greater role than those from the neighbouring Northwestern Federal District of Russia. In 1989, almost 20 % of the residents of the Kaliningrad region came from the regions whose territory now belongs to the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation, primarily from the Smolensk region, the Bryansk region and the Nizhny Novgorod region. Information on the number of those born in other regions of the Russian Federation, but permanently residing in the Kaliningrad region, and those born in the Kaliningrad region but permanently residing in other regions of the Russian Federation is shown in Table 2.

4 Methodological explanations of the microcensuses of 2015. URL: http://www. gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/micro-perepis/finish/metod2.html (accessed 15 June 2019).

Table 2

Interregional migration of the Kaliningrad region in 2010 (thousands of people)

Region Arrived Region Left the territory

Smolensk region 9,942 Moscow 15,153

Bryansk region 9,572 Moscow region 11,316

Moscow region 6,213 St. Petersburg 9,989

Nizhny Novgorod Region 6,151 Krasnodar region 5,160

Krasnodar region 5,648 Leningrad region 3,855

Kirov region 5,186 Rostov region 3,181

Pskov region 5,064 Samara Region 2,771

Voronezh region 4,879 Murmansk region 2,749

Primorsky Krai 4,848 Tyumen region 2,673

Altai region 4,742 Nizhny Novgorod Region 2,615

Tambov Region 4,680 Sverdlovsk region 2,471

Leningrad region 4,657 Smolensk region 2,420

Tver region 4,495 Volgograd region 2,244

Sverdlovsk region 4,320 Voronezh region 2,058

Rostov region 4,220 Pskov region 1,842

Other regions 136, 636 Other regions 52,614

Source: based on the results of the census in Russia (2010).

Moscow, Moscow Region and St. Petersburg are the most attractive for resettlement from the Kaliningrad region. Regions of southern Russia also attract migrants from the Kaliningrad region. Approximately twice as many people arrived in the region, but they were born outside it, compared to the number of those who left the region (221,2 thousand and 123,1 thousand people respectively).

In 1989, almost every seventh resident of the Kaliningrad region was born in the Belorussian SSR or the Ukrainian SSR. In 2010, the number of Belorussian- or Ukranian-born residents halved, while there was a large increase in the number of those born in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz-stan and Armenia (Fig. 8). The total number Kaliningrad residents born in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was only 2.6% of the total population of the region in 1989. According to the latest data, their share fell to 1.6—1.8%. The share of immigrants from non-CIS countries, with the exception of Germany, Poland and Hungary (for the most part immigrants from military families, stationed in these countries [21]), is insignificant.

The reason for the decline in the proportion of people who were born in Belarus and Ukraine in the population of the Kaliningrad region is the age structure of the population with a large number of people of older age. Another reason is people moving to other regions of the Russian Federation and other countries, including countries of birth [22]. Figures No. 9 and No. 10 show a comparison of the age structure of people who were born in Belarus and Kazakhstan, but who lived in the Kaliningrad region at the time of the 1994 and 2015 microcensuses.

Fig. 8. Distribution of foreign-born in the population of the Kaliningrad region,%

* Georgia including territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia Source: based on the results of the census and microcensus in Russia.

Fig. 9. Comparison of the age structure of people who were born in Belarus and Kazakhstan, but who lived in the Kaliningrad region at the time of the 1994 microcensuses,%

Source: based on the results of the microcensus 1994 in Russia.

Fig. 10. Comparison of the age structure of people who were born in Belarus and Kazakhstan, but who lived in the Kaliningrad region at the time of the 2015 microcensuses,%

Source: based on the results of the microcensus 2015 in Russia.

People from the Belorussian SSR were among the first to migrate to the Kaliningrad region after its accession to the USSR. Their share for the generations of 1920—1940 in the entire population was about 20 % according to the 1994 microcensus data. Since then, the number of arrivals from the territory of Belarus has decreased. In 1994, the peak in the age structure of the Kaliningrad region was in the group of 55—59 years. Among those who moved from Kazakhstan to the Kaliningrad region, this peak was in the group of 30—34 years, this indicates a younger age structure. This situation was preserved in 2015, the age profile of those who moved from Belarus shifted to older ages, and those who moved from Kazakhstan had a relatively uniform age profile.

The ethnic composition of the population can be considered conditionally as an indicator of migration processes. According to the results of the population censuses of 1959—1989, 78% of the population of the region were ethnic Russians, 78.1 % in 2002, and 86.4% in 2010. After the end of the USSR period, the majority (65.6 %, or 75 thousand people) of those who moved to the Kaliningrad region of people who were born in other countries were ethnic Russians. This is above average for Russia, where 57 % of the population identify as ethnic Russians (or 3 million 233 thousand people). From 2007 to 2010 (since the beginning of the Programme of Resettlement of Compatriots to the Russian Federation until the last census), ethnic Russians made up 61.7 % of all those who moved to the region.

Ethnic Russians and nationalities who traditionally live in Russia, who were born outside Russia and arrived after 1991, should be considered 'repatriates' rather than 'international migrants' [23]. The predominance of ethnic Russians in migration flows from the former Soviet republics was known on the basis of current statistics from the beginning of the 2000s. But since 2008, comparable information has not been collected, and population censuses data on the ethnic composition of migrants have become unique.

From 1989 to 2010, there was a decline in ethnic Belorussians among residents of the Kaliningrad region (from 8.5 % to 3.6% of the region's population) from 73.9 thousand to 32.5 thousand people. Ethnic Ukrainians have also recorded a large decline (from 7.2 % to 3.7 % of the oblast population) from 62.8 thousand to 32.8 thousand people. Perhaps the reason is not only in the migration process. The reason may be the natural population decline of the older ages in these groups. Another reason is the change of ethnic identity, especially in ethnically mixed families. It was recorded for other regions of Russia [24—26], but the criterion of the place of birth is unchanged throughout life.

In the post-Soviet period, the number of the following ethnicities living in the region has increased: ethnic Armenians (from 1.6 thousand to 9.2 thousand), Germans (from 1.3 thousand to 7.3 thousand people), Azerbaijanis (from 1.9 thousand to 3.3 thousand people) and Uzbeks (from 0.5 to 2.2 thousand people).

Discussion

The census results can be used to analyse migration processes. Migrant stocks in the country and regions can be analyzed based on the results of population censuses. Most of those born in foreign countries, but who have moved to Russia, have Russian citizenship. As a rule, these persons received citizenship according to the special order. There is a simplified procedure in Russia for the naturalization of former Soviet citizens living in the territory of the Russian Federation [27]. Thus, the study of migration based on the criterion of citizenship is not effective. The question to respondents about previous place of residence in population censuses is an effective tool for analyzing migration processes. This question is successfully applied, for example, in India [28], but it was not provided for in the census programme in Russia. The study of international and internal migrations for permanent residence using the question of place of birth is the most widely used method worldwide [29; 30], but at present it is little used by Russian researchers.

The analysis of the results of censuses and microcensuses of the population of 1989—2015 (according to data on the place of birth) showed an increase in the role of those born in the region in the formation of the population of the Kaliningrad region. The analysis also showed a weakening of migration links with other territories (with the exception of Kazakhstan, Central Asian countries and the Caucasus). The reason for this is the decrease in the number of people who migrated to the territory of the former Königsberg region, who were born outside this region.

A large flow of migrants from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia was registered before the start of the program of resettlement of compatriots to the Russian Federation. The proportion of those born in Belarus and Ukraine who moved to the region is decreasing in the population of the Kaliningrad region, since they are characterized by an age structure that is biased towards older ages. In the event of an aggravation of the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine, a short-term surge in the number of migrants from Ukraine to the Kaliningrad region is possible.

Gradually, the share of generations born in other regions and countries decreases (new resettlements, as a rule, are more easily transferred when there is already migration experience). On the other hand, the special territorial position (the region is an exclave, so residents may only move visa-free to the rest of Russia via sea or air) and the increasing role of those born in the region in the population structure can cause a transformation of regional identity, its strengthening, the emergence of a sense of isolation from the rest of the country.

This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Programme at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE).

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The authors

Dr Salavat I. Abylkalikov, Institute of Demography, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia.

E-mail: [email protected]

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3405-3867

Vitaly S. Sazin, PhD Student, Saint Petersburg Branch of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia.

E-mail: [email protected]

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2554-754X

To cite this article:

Abylkalikov, S. I., Sazin, V. S. 2019, Migration in the Kaliningrad region reflected in the 1989—2015 censuses and microcensuses, Balt. reg., Vol. 11, no. 2, p. 32—50. doi: 10.5922/ 2079-8555-2019-2-3.

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