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1 Sb'u Gertler P. J., Martinez S. W., Rubio-Codina M., Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long Term Living Standards. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2012, 4(1), tg 164-192:
2 Sb'u Abdelhadi S., Bashayreh A., Remittances and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Business and Social Scienc, Volume 8, Number 12, December 2017, t2 98-102:
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3 Sb'u Kumar R. R., Stauvermann P. J., Patel A., Prasad S., The Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan and Macedonia: Accounting for Financial Development. International Migration Vol. 56 (1) 2018, tg 95-126:
4 Sb'u Shera A., Meyer D., Remittances and their impact on Economic Growth. Social and Management Sciences 21/1, 2013, 3-19. 3-19:
5 Sb'u Olofsdotter K., Abdullaev R., Impact of remittances on economic growth in selected Asian and Former Soviet Union countries. Lund University, School of Economics and Management, 2011:
6 Sb'u Comes C.-A., Bunduchi E., Vasile V., Stefan D., The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments and Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study in Central and Eastern Europe. MDPI. Sustainability, 2018,10, 238, tg 1-16:
7 Sb'u f>. ^linpqjuiii, 11. Kjuiniuuijiuti, L. £n¿|itijuiti, Ungfiw[iul|wtj h|niJtjujL)Lutj qwpq.wgnLijtjb|i|i l[bp[nLÖnL[djnLtl[l <lUJlUUinwtl|l LUlignLjlUj|lll intlinbunL|ajnLtinLlJ, b'TK UlbmbULUq[lLnnL[ajLUll
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9 Sb'u Karapetyan L., Harutyunyan L., The Development and the Side Effects of Remittances in CIS Countries: the Case of Armenia», 2013,
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2007-2013 pp. dwdwbwI^whwmi^w&riLij qba||i <iujiuuLniuli Luti5tiiul|iuli inpiutiui})bpintibpQ qpuUnpbL bli iu6|i ii|iLnnLir 755,8 d|ti L1LTL qn[iup|ig haiu-lib|ni[ 963,9 d[li LLLTL iqn[lup|n: 2014-2019 pp. diu dwtjLul|iuhLULni|LU&nLd qbiq|i <LujLuuinwli luIi51iluL|luIi Lnpuitju!|>bpintjbpQ 909,7 J[b LLLTL qn|wp|ig bijiuqbL bli d|il^lL 682,0 J[b LLLTL qniuip, Lupmaip|ilj luIj51jluL|luIi mpiuliu^bpin-libp/<LUL griLgujli|i2Q 8,7%-fig l|p6iuLni|bL t d|ili£b 5%, dfiti^qbri, <LujiuuLniuti|ig qrupu qliaignq luIi51iiuI|luIi Lnpiuliui}>bpLnlibp|i 6lul|lulq Lilnugb[ t hiupwpbpiu-LjLutinpbti L|lujnlIj (iuqjnLuujL| 1, q&wll|LULnl|bp 1):
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« lupipuigfib LuhdhLul/Luh qmip ippiubufybpiptibpfi li <l>U-/i 2wpd[itipuigi] 2007-2019 pp. (Jib MIL rinpup)"
9206,311662,0 8648,0 9260,3 10142,1 10619,4 11121,3 11609,510553,310546,111527,412457,913672,7
616,9 707,6 498,8 532,7 642,3 685,1 785,9 712,6 466,0 427,1 488,4 490,0 489,9
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^Lbp^hli miup|ilibp|ilj iupinbpl|p|ig umiugL[nq iuli(5liwl|iuli inpiuliu^bpinlib-p|i l|p6iuinnLdQ II « CLU-rud qpiulig duiutjLupiucHi|i Lutil)Jujti d|iinnLd[i, pliai-LjLutjlupujp, hpbbg LuqqbgrupjnLljli bb pnqlinLd bpl|p|i inliLnbuiul|Lutj qiupqiug-duiti l|pai, nLuui|i L|lupbnpi[nllI bli £luIiluI|luI|iuIi qliLuhiuLnrudtibpQ:
10 Sb'u U"hq.nwghntJ ini|jw|tibpQ Opiul|iupq 2030-fi hwdwinbpuinnLd. J|nq.pujg|nluj|n U qwpqiugdwtj qliiuhiuinnLilQ <wjiuuinwtinLiI, qbl|nLjg, LT|nq.pujg|iujj|n illngwqqwjfiti l|iuqJwl|bpii|nL[ajnili, ULPh CwjiuuLnwbfi LunLupb[nL|ajnLli, <wjwuLnwbfi <wbpwu|binnL[ajnLtj, 2019:
" LJLry n lu lu Lj q l|iuqi5i|b[ f https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx, « qfiuipujj |n"U hLU2i|bL|2hnp b http://www.minfin.am/hy/page/_hy_chartJ, CC intiinbunL|ajnLtip ptinL|aiuqpnri h|nJ biul|iuli iIiuLjpnintiinbuiuljiub grng wtif^bbpQ (bniuilujwl|wjfitj) ini|jw|libp|n h|iJwtj l[piu:
9-0шщш1п1|Ьр 1. « lupipiujjfiti lubâbuiljiub h lubâbuiljuib qmip
ippuibu$bpipbbp/<bU 2uipd[ibpuig[} 2007-2019 pp. (%f
ULpmbpL|p|ng uiniugi|nrL шЬ0Ьш1|шЬ mpiuliu$bpintjhp|i h|idtjiul|iuli iup-iniuô|ili (tl|qnqhli) aiqqhgnLpjnLliQ u|ujùuitiiui|npi|iuô t i|hp2tiiul|ujli uu|iuruiiuli ijpiu lihpqnpôrupjiudp, npli iudpnr]2iul|iutj ii|iuhiutj2Lupl||i óiufuunijlnli piur|iur}-p|i^libp|ig t: <huiuiqninnLpjriLlinLij qliiuhiuini|tïL t iupinhpl|p|ig uiniugi|nrL uitiö-lnul|iuti inpiutiuí}>hpintihp|i uqqbgnLfajnLliQ i|hp2liLul|Ujti uu|iuruíiuti, lihpiinLÔ-diub, <Lli-|i, dbl| hui2L|nL[ <LLL-|i b. hiudiufuiunli libpqpnLJlibp|i ijpiu:
»-LbpLnL&nLfajnLtitibpnLiJ oqmiuqnpôi|b[. ^ ^ hbinlijuiL diulipninliinhuiuliiiili grugiutj|i2tibpp. ш1и[шЬш1|шЬ СЫТ J[b « qpiud (GDP), L|hp2tiLul|iuli uu|iun-diub óiufuubp' d[li « ppiud (CONS), hiudiufuiunli libpqpnLJlibp' d[li « qpiud (INV), lupiniuhiutinLiT lïlÏJ « qpiuij (EX), libpiinLÖnuT iî[li « qpiuii (IM), uitiö-lnul|iuti шршЬифЬршЬЬр шртЬр^р^д' ií|ti ILIXL q.n|iup (REM), iunLinpiuj|iti piutil|t¡p|i ш^шЬг^ЬЬр' lîlIj « qpiuií (DEP), iíhl| 2^h hiu2i|nil СЫТ « qpiuii (GDP_P_C)13:
М.ЬрпЬ2|Ш[ фпфп^ш1|ш1|ЬЬр|1 hiudiup hiu2i[iupl|L|hi bli h|idtjiul|iutj ptinl-ри^р^ЬЬрр1 LÎh^h^D' iîbq|imLiQ, uiniutir|xupin 2bqnLiÎQ, шпшф^Ф11.)^ ^ Мш~ qiuqrujli iwpdtplihpQ, Ьпрйш[ рш2[ипи1 гиЬЫници Иш4шЬш1|шЬп1.р|ги1|[]: ULju-u|bu, 1996-2020 pp. qIiI|iuô ^шйшЬш1^шИши11|ш0П1.й iupinhpl|p|ig iutiÖtiiul|iuli 1лрш1|ифЬр1л1|Ьр|1 iî|i2|iLi bnLULÎujLul|Luj|nli iupd"hpQ L|mqiJb[ 1125,8051 d|ti LiLTb гучшр, шаш^ш^^О1316,4 ií|li lilTL грпцир (2013 p. 4-pq hrauiíujiul|), ln|iu-quqinjlip1 15,2 J[b LLLTL фпцир (1996 p. 1-|ili t¡niudujiul|):
П-|пL|nL[bp|n d|iiui|np lupdiuin (ADF Unit Root) pbum|i iupq|rutjplihp|i hшJшÖШJlJ, гф1пшр1|1|пг[ pn[np с1"шJmljLuL|Luj|nlj 2шррЬрр п^ ишшд|лпЬшр hti, qpiulip ^0--' qnpÖQlipiuglihp bli14: UhqnliiujtiriLpjnLli rnlibgnq <Lli, iíhl| 2^h hiu2i|ni( СЫ1, ш1|0Ьш1|ш1| шршЬифЬршЬЬр iupinhpl|p|ig, i|t¡p2liiul|ujti иьцшп-
12 <iu2i|ujpL|tjhp[i l|iuiniupi|h[ bli шгупшш1| 1-|п ini|jiu|lihp|n h|nliuli i[pw:
13 Sb'u 1лфш[1|Ьр|п piuquitihp, llqqiuj|ilj Ии^И^Ьр, tmiuiSujujliujjfitj gnLgujbf^tihp https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=202. CC 4P, CC i|6ujpujj|itJ hu^ilbl^hi, https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx:
14 Uiniugfintiiup hti rj-mnlinu] uiniughti LniupphpnL[ajnLtitihpQ r|.|nniupl|h|nLg hhinn
diuti Siufuubp, hiuiiiufuiunli libpqpnLiitibp, wpinwhwlmuj, libpiImdnLiI 2wppbpQ hiuppbgi|bL bli:
Mnnbijwglinti i|bp|nLdnLpjiuti luprjjnLtiplibpq l[L|lujnllJ bli, np iupinbpl|p|ig iuti5tiiul|iiili inpiutiui}>bpintibpQ md~bq q.piul|iuti l|nnb[jiiig|"intj l|iuii|bp rulibli wli-i|iutiiiil|iuli CLli-fi, dbl| hiu2i|ni{ <Lli-|i, i|bp2tiiiil|iuli uu|iunijiiili diufuub-p|i U hiudiufuiunli bbpr|.pnLJlibp|i hbirT rrl|npun'tj|n L|nnb|jiug|iiuj|i qnp&iul||igQ hiuJiuiqiuiniuufLiiuljiupiup 0,73, 0,72, 0,71 L 0,77 t: UjnLU grugiuli^bbpli hbin iunL|iu t hiupiupbpiuL|iulinpbli mdtiq qpiiil|iutj Liiuiq' L|nnbyiug|iiuj|i qnp&iul||igQ iniuiniulii[nLJ t 0,45-0,65 J|i2iul|iujpnLJ: Uiu li2iutiiul|nLd t, np iupinbpl|p|ig « i|infLiiuljgi[nrL LubStiLuLjiuti inpiubu^bpinlibp|i iu6p tiii|iiiuinnLd t L[tfnLnL^nLfaJLU^1 dbg libpiuni[iu6 gnLgiuli|i2libp|i iu6|iIj:
^-pbtigbpfi ii|iuin6iuniuL|lullmpjiub pbuin|i wprunLliptibpni^ ti2wtiiul|iii|]"inL-pjiuli 1% iIluL|ujpr(_ujL)nLii iibpdi|b[ bti |ili^ii|bu «iupinbpL|p|ig iuti5tiiul|iuti inpiuliu^bpinlibpQ Cbli i|ini|infunLpjiuli ii|iuin6iun ^bti», iujliii|bu t[ «CbU.-li iupinbpl|p|ig iuli6Liiul|iuLi inpiuliu^bpinLibp|i i|ini|infijnLpjiuti ii|iuin6iun ^t» qpn-jiuL|iuli i|iupl|iu6libpQ (Prob(F-statistic)<0.01) (iurijnLuiul| 2): Uiu li2uilnul|nLd t, np iupinbpl|p|ig iuti6tiiul|iuti inpiuliu^bpinlibp|i U <Lli-|i dfigU iunl|iu t bpl|-l|nr]diutj|i iqiuin6iuniul|iulinLpjnLli. iupinbpL|p|ig iuti(5tiiul|iutj inpiubu^>bpinlibp|i iu6p (iubl|nLJp), iudpnr]2iiil|iutj iqiuhiuli2iupL||i i[piu tibpqnp&b|ni[, piuqdiupl|j|i t$bl|inni[ JbSiugbrnJ t (ijinppiuglinLJ t) CLll-li: UjnLU L|nqJ|ig, gui&p inbinb-uiul|iutj iu6p bpLipmJ hiubqbgbnLJ t J|nq-pLutiLnljbp|n iui|b[iugdwtiQ, wprynLti-pmd tiiulT iupinbpl|p|ig iub5biuL|iuli inpnitiu$bpintibp|i iu6|iti: PiupSp inbinb-uujL|Lutj iu6p hbiupiui[npnLpjnLli t uinbq&nLd piup(5piugtib|nL L|bliuiuJiuL|iupqiu-L|q" iu2fuiuinb[ni| hiujpbti|i£>nLd, np|i lup^jmlipnul, iujl hiuijiuuiup u|iujdiutilib-prrnJ, L|p6iuini[nliI t iupinbpl|p|ig iuli6liiul|iiili inpiuliu^bpinLibp|i hnupp:
Liryniuuil| 2
Q-pbhgbpli uiuiipfiiuniulfuitinipjiuh p-buipfi u/pqjnitij)bbpin
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Sample: 1996Q1 2020Q2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.
DREM does not Granger Cause DGDP DGDP does not Granger Cause DREM 95 29.1754 24.4155 2.E-10 3.E-09
lipinbpl|p|ig uiniugijnq iuti0tiuil|iutj inpiubu^>bpinljbp|i luqqbgnLpjnLbp i[bp2biul|iuli uiL|iunJiub i[piu bbpl|iujiugi[nLJ t hbinlijiu[ dnqbinil15.
ln(C0NSSA)t = 2,595 + 0.0551«(Jlfftf^), + 0,lMiii(CDPSjj)r + + 0, 37D[n(C0JV5Sjl)t_i + 0,13Z(nCOF^jf + 0, 069[n(/MSjj jt_i +et ;
15 U~nr|.b|tibpnLii In q tibpl|iujiugtinLii t" ptiiuLjiuti h|nJpni[ [nq.wpfi|aiiq, ifinifinfuiul|iubfi ijbpgnLii q.pi|wö SA-b' hujp[abgi[uj&2Luppp:
U.r|jnLUUll| 3
LTnr|.b[ 1. Ijiufujuii ifinifinfviulpub' ilbpgbiulpub uupunJiub diujvubp
Dependent Variable: LNCONS_SA
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2020Q2
Included observations: 81 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
2.594710
0.604763
4.290455
0.0001
LNREM SA
0.019063
LNGDP SA
0.192030
0.054013
3.555277
0.0007
LNCONS_SA(-1)
0.369950
0.099833
3.705702
LNDEP
0.132056
0.032552
4.056782
0.0001
LNIM_SA(-1)
0.089423
0.047951
R-squared
0.996485
Mean dependent var
13.51790
Adjusted R-squared
0.896250
S.D. dependent var
0.525375
S.E. of regression
Akaike info criterion
-3.964351
Sum squared resid
0.077620
Schwarz criterion
-3.786984
Log likelihood
166.5562
Hannan-Quinn criter.
F-statistic
4252.219
Durbin-Watson stat
1.600047
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
i|bp2liiul|iutj uii|iundiutj iu6|i inbJll|Ij t t-pT-, MCOJtfi^t-i-D' (t-1)-pr> trQLUlIujluL|nliî, lnCGOTjrji), -t,' <LU-h iu6h uibihqQ t-prj. briiu Jujoil|nLJ, -tj' iupinbpl|p|ig luIiÖIjluL|luIi Lnpaibu^ibpLnljb-
p|i Luöfi inbiiu|Q t-pq brnuiîujLul|nuJ, -ti' wnLinpwj|iti piulil|bp|i w-
i|ailjr|.libp|i lu6|i inbJaip t-prj. bniudujiul|nLd, -p' tibpdnLÔduitj iu6|i
UlblJa|Q (t-1)-pr|. briLULÎUJLuL|nLLÎ, et -it LÎnr|.b|Jn Li|LULnLuhujL|Lulj u[ulul|i q.llLuhuJ-uiluL|ujIiq t-prj. bQiuiîujiuL|nLiî: U"nr|.biJn aipr|.jnLliplibp|i hwiiiuâwjlT aipuibpL|p|ig uinwgi|nq wtiâtiiul|wli inpwtiui}>bpinlibp|i 10% lu6q, lujl han|iuuujp iqwjdwti-libprud, plipaig|iL| briiudujuil|nLd, qpuil|iulinpbtj t wqqrud L|bp2tiiul|Lutj uu|iun-Jaib iu6|i l[piu' 0,55 innl|nuLuj|ili l|bmni[: OjUL-|i 10% iu6p, lujl hiuijiuuiup ll|luj-diulilibprud, pbpiug|iL| bnujJujLuLjnuJ, r|.piul|Lutjnpbtj t wqqrud i|bp2tiwl|iuti uu|iundwtj lu6|i l|jW 1,92 innl|nuiuj|itj L|binnL[, |iul| uiL|Lutjqlibp|i 10% iu6p qpiuL|Luljnpblj t wqqrud 1,32 mnl|nuLuj|ilj L|bmnL[: LbpdnLÔdwli 10% iu6p, lujl h lu i[iu u lu p ll|luj JLutitibpnuI, huignprj. bnuidujiul|nLd, qpwl|iulinpbli t wqqrud i|bp2liLul|LuLi ull|luqiJluIj iu6|i i|]W 0,89 innl|nu iuj|ili L|bmni| (iurunLuwl| 3):
LLrynLuiul| 4
LTni}b[ 1-fi libiugnpritibp/i hbipbpnuljbi}uiuipfiliniiajuib U uiilipnlfnnb[jiuglmijli pbuipbpfi uipqjnib^bbpp
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Paean-Godfre
F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS
1.057850 Prob. F(5,75) 5.336072 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 7.444817 Prob. Chi-Square(5)
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic Obs*R-squared
1.613537 3.429136
Prob. F(2,73) Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.3906 0.3763 0.1896
0.2062 0.1800
U"nri_bL 1-|i iitiiugnpr|libpQ hniinul|br|xuuin|"il| bli (Prob(F-statistic)=0,391), oiL[LnnL|nribLLugL|Luö ¿bti (Prob(F-statistic)=0,206), nilibli LinpJlu[ pu^nu! (Prob(Jarque-Bera)=0,154) (wqjnLuwli 4, q.ôwu|iuinl|bp 2)16:
Series: Residuals
Sample 2000Q2 2020Q2
Observations 81
Mean -1.67e-15
Median -0.002803
Maximum 0.061386
Minimum -0.102563
Std. Dev. 0.028794
Skewness -0.365155
Kurtosis 3.757548
Jarque-Bera 3.736908
Probability 0.154362
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
^duiujuimljbp 2. U~ni}b[ 1-fi iHiiugnpq.libpfi hnpiliu[ pui2[uiSuiti pbuip/i Lupqjnibf)libpi1
« bbptfrnMiuli i[piu iupinbpl|p|ig uiniugi|nrL luIj51jluL|luIj inpiuliu^bpin-libp|i Luqr}bgnL|ajnLliQ libpl|iujiuglinrL dnr}b[tj t.
I«(jjfjjg) = —0,004 + 0,759iii(GDJPSj9)t + 0.1331 n(REMSA) + 0.13 51 «(/ifAfJj4)t + et:
LLqjnLuuilj 5
lTni}b[ 2. Qiu/vjuj[ iftniftn/vuiliuiti' bbpJnidniJ
Dependent Variable: LNIMSA Method: Least Squares Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2020Q2 Included observations: 81 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
LNGDPJSA LNREM_SA(-1) LNREM SA
-0.004128 0.758849 0.133268 0.134760
0.009446 0.183947 0.078390 0.074954
-0.437044 4.125366 1.700059 1.797895
0.6633 0.0001 0.0932 0.0761
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.274828 0.246574 0.076584 0.451618 95.23540 9.727228 0.000016
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
0.017853 0.088231 -2.252726 -2.134482 -2.205285 2.130258
16 Cbinwqwjnuj ùbpl|iujwgi|nrL pn[np Jnr|.b[übpnLij dtiiugnpiYübpp hni5nulibr|.wuuifil| bti, wijinn l|nnb[iugi|wô ¿bti, nLlibti tinpJiu[ piu2funLiJ:
UnqbinLd -li libpdnLÔdiutj iu6|i uibJiqli t t-pq bnaiJujail|nLJ: U"n-
qb|]i iupqjnLtjplibp|i hLudiuäiujlf wpinbpL|p|ig uinLugL|nq LubÔtiLuLjLulj rnpwliu-$bpinlibp|i 10% iu6p, luj[ hanjaiuaip ii|iujdiutjlibpni.d, plipwg|iL| bniudujLuL|nLd, qpwL|Lulinpbtj t wqqmd bbpJnLÔJiuli iu6|i l|jilu 1,35 innl|nuiuj|itj L|bmnL[, huL| hwgnpq bniudujiul|nLif 1,33 mnl|nuLuj|ilj L|binnL[: CblL-|i 10% iu6p, luj[ hiuL[iu-uiup u|wjiiiulitibpnLii, Qlipiug|iL| biuuLiujiuL|nLii, qpiuL|wlinpbti t wqqnuj libp-lînLÔiîujli lu6|i l[puu' 7,59 innl|nuwj|iti l|bmni| (iurijnLULuL| 5):
lipmbpl|p|ig uiniugi|nq LutiâtiwL|wti inpLuliu^bpintibpli wqqbgnLpjnLliQ « <Lli-|i i[piu libpl|LujLugi|nLiJ t hbuiUjaiL ünqb[nL|.
ln{GDPSA)t = 0.025 + 0,1211 jf_j - 0,198/îi(GDÎ,Jj1]î_1 + et
ULrynLUUll] 6
ITnrçbi 3. butfiijui[ ifinifinfuuiljuib' <LU
Dependent Variable: LNGDP_SA
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 1996Q4 2020Q2
Included observations: 95 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
0.024630
0.005672
4.342547
LNGDP_SA(-2)
-0.198319
0.106431
-1.863358
LNREM_SA(-1)
0.120684
0.037281
R-squared
0.120105
Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.100977
S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.048698
Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
153.8257
Hannan-Quinn criter.
F-statistic
6.278990
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob(F-statistic)
0.002778
lTnqb|ji iupqjni.tjf)tjbp|i hiudiuäiujlf iupinbpl|p|ig uiniugi|nq luIjÖIjluL|luIi inpiuliu!|>bpinlibp|i 10% iu6p, wjL h lu l[lu u lu p ii|LujdiutjtjbpnLd, hwgnpq bnwd-ujoil|nLJ, qpoil|Luljnpbli t LuqqmJ CblL-|i lu6|i l|jW 1,2 mnl|nuLuj|ili L|bmni[ (LuqjriLuujl| 6): UpinbpL|p|ig ULnLugijnq luLiÖLiujL|ujIi inpiutiui}>bpLnlibp|i wqqbgnL-pjnLliQ tfbl| 2tiih hLU2L|ni| « <Lli-|i L[pai libpl|UJjLugLinq ijnqb|li t.
ln(GDPpc ^ = 0,013 + 0,078in(^FM3j3)t_1 + 0. 241ln(EXSA)t + et
lulîujluLjnllî, lnC^'^it -Li LupuiLuhailiJaib iu6|i LnbJa|p t-pq bnai JujluL|iilJ: Un-qb|ji luprynLtiptibphaiJluÖlujIi' wpinbpL|p|ig umiugL|nq luIiÖIiluL|luIi inpwliu-$bpinlibp|i 10% lu6q, luj[ h lu l[lu u lu p ll|luj JLulilibprnJ, hwgnpq briLU JujaiL|nLJ, qpLuL|Lulinpbb t wqqmd JbL| hiu2i|nil CLlL-|i lu6|i i|]W 0,78 mnL|nuaij|ilj L|buini|: Upinwhiutidiuti 10% lu6q, luj[ hwijujuLup ll|wjdwtitibpnLd, Qlipwg|iL| biuuLÏujwL|nLii, qpiuL|Lutinpbli t wqqmd dbL| 2^h hw2L|ni{ <Lli-|i w6|i ijpw' 2,4 uinL|nuLuj|ili Ljbuini| (LurumuaiLi 7):
uu^nnsLSbuiiq-hsnKra-anKb LLrynLuuil) 7
LTni}b[ 4 W/u/iu/ ifinifinfuwliwti' tiblf hu'2llnil
Dependent Variable: LNGDP_P_C_SA
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2020Q2
Included observations: 81 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
0.013354
0.005076
t-Statistic
2.630935
0.0103
LNREM SA(-1)
0.077844
0.043259
1.799495
0.0758
LNEX SA
0.241078
0.053791
4.481740
0.0000
R-squared
0.250179
Mean dependent var
0.021274
Adjusted R-squared
S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.043427
Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.147097
Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
140.6659
Hannan-Quinn criter.
F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.145822
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000013
lipinbpl|p|ig wtiötiwl|wti inpiutiui}>bpintibp|i luqq.bgnlfajruliq hwiiiufuiunti libpqpruijtibp|i i[piu tibpl|iujwgi|nLii t hbinlijiuL tfnq.b|ni|.
In(/JV|fJj5}r = -0,037+ 1744/n(GWM) + D^SBlnfGDPjj) + + 0.178in(REMsjiJ - 0.26/-n.(/A,rM)f_1 + et :
LLrynLuuilj 8
LTnr|.b[ 5. Liwfiijuii ifinifin|uuil|uitP huiiîuifuuirili tibpripmiltibp
Dependent Variable: LNINV_SA
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2020Q2
Included observations: 80 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
0.013351
LNREM_SA(-4)
0.178453
0.094932
1.879812
0.0640
LNGDP SA
0.223868
7.789285
LNINV_SA(-1)
-0.260023
0.109154
-2.382175
0.0197
LNGDP_SA(-1)
0.757786
0.313947
R-squared
0.484114
Mean dependent var
0.016289
Adjusted R-squared
S.D. dependent var
0.128886
S.E. of regression
0.095009
Akaike info criterion
-1.809231
Sum squared resid
Schwarz criterion
-1.660355
Log likelihood
77.36926
Hannan-Quinn criter.
-1.749543
F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
U"nq.b|nLii ln(JArySd)f -tj h wiïiufuwnli tibpq.pnLiilibp|i w6|i inbiiu|ti t t-pq, InCi^n^aDt-i-Q' (t-1)-pq bnaiJujailirnJ, -p" iupinbpl|p|ig wtiâ-
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luqqnuj hiuiiiufuiunli lihpqpruiitihp|i iu6|i i|piu' 1,78 innl|nuiuj|iti l|hinni|; <LUL-|i 10% шбр, iujl hiui|iiiuiup u|iujiíiulilihpnLií, qpiul|iulinphli t luqqruií hiuiíiufuiunti lihpqpruiïtihp|i iu6|i i[piu' ptipiug|il| hniuiíujiul|nLij 17,44 innl|nuiuj|"ili l|hinni{, hmgnpq Ьпшйц|ш1|пиГ 7,58 innl|nuiuj|iti l|hinni{ (iururuuiul| 8):
bqpuil|uigrH|ajrutjtibp « inliinhurufajiulip plinpn2 t uhqntiiuj|"ili lupiniu-qbiu n^fuuiiniulipiujl'itj J|iqpmg|imj|i piupöp дгидш1ф2, npni[ u|iujdiutjiiii|np-i[iuô' bpL|p|i inliinhuiul|iiili qiupqiugdiuli 1[РШ twl|iuli niqqbgnL|ajruli bli rulib-lirud iupinbpl|p|ig uiniugi|nq iuliÖliiul|iiili илршЬифЬртЬЬрр, npnlig diuuliiupiu-d"|ntjQ « CLLL-rud 2007-2019 pp. ^^^l|iuhiuini|iiiônLd l|iuqdh[ t 5,08,7%: 2007-2013 pp. ^^l^l|iuhiuini|iuônLd qhu||i <iujiuuiniiili шЬ0Ьш1|ш1| ипршЬифЬртЬЬрр qpuUnpb[ bli iu6|i, |iul| 2014-2019 pp.' iutil|iíiuti ií|iinnLií: n-fiiniupliilnq сТшйш1|ш1|шИш1Л1|ш0П1й iupinhpl|p|ig iuliÖtiiul|iuti тршЬифЬрт-lihp, iutiÖtiiul|iuti тршЬифЬртЬЬр/СЬи. U iuliâliiul|iiili qnixn тршЬифЬрт-lihp/CLLi grnguli|i2Libp|i luiihtiiuiihö lupdtiplihpp qpmligi|b[ bli 2013 fa.' hiu-diuu|iuiniuufbiiutiiiipiup l|iuqdh|ni( 963,9 d[li UUL qn|iup, 8,7% U 7,1%: 2019 p. шртЬр1|р|пд iuliäliiul|iiili тршЬифЬрипЬЬрр l|iuqdb[ bli 682 d[li U.UL qn|iup, шЬ0Ьш1|ш1| ипршЬифЬрипЬЬр/СЫ! ЬшршрЬрш^дп^тЬр' 5,0%, |iul| шЬ0Ьш-1|шЬ qriLin тршЬифЬртЬЬр/СЬИ-Ь' 3,6%: ЧшЬ^иштЬиЬф t, пр, 2020 р. linpnliiuilhpnLuiujI'itj hiudiui|iiipiul|ni[ ii|iujdiuliiui|npi|iuô, diupql|iiilig luqiuin inhqiu2nipdfi uiuhdiutjiiiLl'iiulinLdlibpli iui|b|Ji l|l|p6iuinbli iuliÖtjiul|iutj inpiulju-фЬр1п1|Ьр|п tibphnupp' ршдшишршр iutjqpiuqiuntjiu|nil ludpnq^iuliiiili u|iu-Иш1|2шр1||1 ijpiii:
1996-2020|Э|Э. ^шйш1|ш1^шИшт1|ш0гий iupinhpl|p|ig iuliâtiiul|iiiti inpiutiu-фЬрт1|Ьр|1 ú^b briujiïujiuL|iuj|ili lupdhpp 1|шс^йЬ[ 1125,8051 ií|li LiUL qn|iup, шпшi|b[шqnljIiq1 316,4 ií|ti liLTb qn|iup (2013 p. 4-pq hrouiíujiul|), lii|iuqiii-qnijlip115,2 ú[li UUL qn|iup (1996 p. 1-|ili hiuuiiujiuli):
Sbinhuiu£iui|iiul|iiili iínqh|tihp|i l||ipiuriijiiiiíp líhp qliiuhiuinriLiítihpp i|l|iu-jrud bb, np « intiinbunLpjiiili i[pw iuliÖliiiil|iutj ьпршЬифЬрьпЬЬрЬ rubbli li2iu-liiul|iu|]i niqqbgnLpjruli: Я-рЬЬ^Ьр^ phuin|i hiudiuóiujlf iupinbpl|p|ig шЬ0Ьш-1|шЬ 1лршЬифЬртЬЬр|п U <Lli-|i d^gli шп1|ш t bpL|L)niqJLuti|n u|iuin6iiiniul|iii-tiпLfajпLti: lipinbpl|p|ig шЬ01ии1|шЬ 1прш1шфЬртЬЬр|1 шбр (iuliL|nLdp), ludpnq-2ш1|шЬ ii|iuhiuli2iupl||i i[piu tihpqnpôh|ni[, pmqJmpL)^|n tфЫ|lлnL[ Jb&mgtiriLJ t (ifinppiuglinLd t) CLU-b: Ujruu l|nqd|ig, дшбр (ршр0р) inliinhuiul|iuli шбр bpL|-pnllî huitiqhgtiruií t Ы|шйпил1|Ьр|1 1|рбштйш1|р (uii|h|iugiJiuliQ), mi|b[mlinLiJ t (liL[mqnLiJ t) ui2fuiuiniulipiuj|iti iJ|iqpuliLnlibp|i p|iLlD ^ luóiiliJ (l|póuiini|nlií) ш1|0Ьш1|ш1| трш1|ифЬр1л1|Ьр|1 libphnupp:
« inliiuj|"ili LnliLnbunLpjnLlilibp|i iJbô lîuuQ шр1лЬр1|р|1д uiniugi|nq uipmliu-фЬртЬЬрЬ oquimqnpöriLiJ t Qtipiug|il| uu|mQnqul|uli 0ш[ииЬр|1 4рш' 1т|ши-inh|ni( шйрп^ш1|ш1| и|шИш1|2шр1||1 ш6|п1|, Li i|hp2tiiul|iuti uii|iuniîiuli ijpiu qpiulig luqqbgnLpjrulip qpulinpi|nLd t h|iJliiuL|iulinLJ plipiug|iL| bniuJujujLjrnJ: LLpinbpL|p|ig uiniugi[nq iuliÖliiuL|iulj 1пршЬифЬртЬЬр|1 10% шбр i|t¡p2tJiul|iuli иа|ш^ш1| шб|л i[piu шqqnLJ t qpшL|шljnpblj, рЬршд|л1| ЬпшJujujlinnJ' 0,55 тп1|пиш]|пЬ L|binni[:
М.Ьр2Ьш1|ш1| иа|ш^шЬ Jnqb[rnJ, npiqbu ш1|1|ш[и фпфп[иш1|шЬ1|Ьр, q|i-тшр1|1[Ь[ bli ЬшЬ. CLLL-|i, шп1илрш]|п1| рш1|1|Ьр|л шl[шllqlJЬp|^ Ii lihpdnLÔdiutj ujqqbgnLfajruljtjbpQ: Ч-ЬшИшттйЬЬр^ ИшйшЙш^' р1|ршд|п1| hiuuiíujiul|nuj
CLli-fi 10% шбр 1|Ьр2Ьш1|ш1| uu|iumíiuti iuó|i i(puj qpiuL|iulinphti t luqqnLií 1,92 innL|nuujj|iti L|hinni{, |iul| iunlanpiuj|nli piutiL|hp|i iui|iuliqtihp|i 10% шбр qpiuL|iutinphti t luqqruií 1,32 mnL|numj|ili L|hinni|; LhpiiniMiuli 10% шбр 1|Ьр£-lnul|iuti uu|iuruíiuti iu6|i 1[рш qpiuL|iulinphti t LuqqnLií hiu^ripq Ьгиийщш^пиГ 0,89 innl|nuiuj|iti L|hinni|;
lipinbpL|p|ig ulлшgL[nq iuliäliiuL|iutj тршЬифЬрьпЬЬр^ luqqhgrupjnLtjp tibpJnL&diuti i[piu Liu qpiul|iutj t: lijq luqqhgrupjnLtip qpuü.npi[nLJ t Li' pbpiu-g|iL| bniudujiul|nLd, Li' hiugnpq, npnbg|ig jnLpiupLutjynLpnLd iupinbpl|p|ig итшд-i[nq шЬ0Ьш1|шЬ 1лршЬифЬр1п1|Ьр|1 10% шбр 1,3 mnL|numj|ili l|binnL[ dbóiug-lirud t lihpdniMiutj шбр: ПрьцЬи iulil|iufu фпфп^иш^шЬ' libpdniMiutj Jnqt¡|nLd q|iiniupL|i|bL t tjiuLi CUU-li: CUU-|i 10% luób рЬ|эшд|п1| bniuJujiuLirud qpiu-l|iutinpt¡ti t Luqqruií tihpiiniMiuli iuó|i i|piu' 7,59 inriL|nuujj|nti L|hinni|;
Ч-1|шИш1ЛгтЛ|Ьр|1 iupqjriLli£tit¡p|i ИшйшЙиуЬ' iupinhpL|p|ig ипршЬифЬрт-libpQ i|jióiul|ujqpnphti 1|2шЬш1|Ш[|1 qpiuL|iuli luqqhgrupjnLli rulibli liiuL <.LU-|i U LÍbl| hiu2i|ni| <Lli-|i и[рш: UpinhpL|p|ig uiniug^nq iutiÖtiiul|iuti inpiuliu-фЬрт1|Ьр|1 10% шбр, lujL hiui|iuuiup u|iujiíiulilihpnLií, hiugnpq ЬпилЦш^пи!, qpiul|iulinphti t luqqruií <LU-|i iu6|i i[piu' 1,2 unnL)пиluj|nti L|hinni(, £iuli|i np lujb d|i2tjnpqiui|npi|iuô t Li uu|iundiuli, bbpqprnJlibp|i nl libpdniMiuli J^ngnij t luqqrud CbU-|i i[pw:
diudiutiiuLiiujIili [luqnil t qpuLinpi|ni.d tiiuLi iupinhpL|p|ig uinmgijnq lubö-1|ш1|шЬ inpiutju$bpinlibp|i luqqbgnLpjrulip JbL| 2^h hiu2i|nL[ CUU-|i i[piu: lipinbpL|p|ig uiniugi|nq iutjÖtjiuL|iuli трьиЬифЬртЬЬр^ 10% шбр, ищ hiui[iuuiup LL|mjJmbtibpnuJ, hiugnpq bniuJujiuLirud, qpiuL|iutjnpt¡li t luqqrud dbl| 2^h hiu2i|ni( <LU-|i iuó|i i|piu' 0,78 innL|nuiuj|"ili L|hinni|; Um li2iuliiul|nuj t, np iupinhpL|p|ig ьпршЬифЬрьпЬЬр^ шбр Ььцшиити! t CC pluuL^rupjiuti l|hliuiuijiu-L|iupqiuL||i piupöpiugüiutip: Пра|Ьи iuliL|iufu i|ini|infuiul|iuli, iíhL| hui2i|ni{ <LU-|i iínqh|nlií, q|iLnmpL|i|b[ t lupiniuhiutinujp: Upiniuhiutiiiiuli 10% шбр, uijl hiui|iuuiup u|iujijiulitihpnLií, plipiug|iL| hniuiiujiuL|nLiï, qpiuL|iutinphti t luqqruii iihl| hiu2i|ni( <LU-|i iuó|i i|jW 2,4 innl|nuiuj|"ili L|hinni{:
9-tjiuhiuini|iuô Jnqb[libp|ig Ь^Ь^Ц' iupinhpL|p|ig uiniugijnq шЬ0Ьш1|шЬ 1лрш1|ифЬрт1|Ьр|1 iuqqbgnL|ajnLlitj шJbllШlIbó с^ш[Luqinj qpulinp-i[nlJ t hшJш^uшrlll bbpqpriLJljbp|i 4пш: U-nui';ípL|phg ummgijnq шЬ0Ьш1|шЬ 1лрш1|ифЬрт1|Ьр|1 10% шбр, luji Иш1[шишр LL|ШJLÎшlJlJЬpnLd, dbl| 1пшр|л hbirin, iqpmL|mtinpblj t uiqqrud hшJш^uшrlll bbpqpnnlljbp|i шб|л ijpLu' 1,78 innl|nuiu-L|binnL[: flpo|bu iulil|iufu фпфп^иш^шЬ' Jnqb[rnJ q|^lлшpL|L[b[ t biuli <LU-li, np|i 10% шбр qpiul|iulinphti t шqqnLlî Ишйш^ишпЬ libpqpnLiîlibp|i iuó|i и[рш. рЬршд|п1| Ьпшй^ш^гий' 17,44 innl|nuujj|-ili L|bLnni|, |iuL| hmgnpq Ьашй-ujiul|nuT 7,58 Lnnl|numj|ili L|bLnni|:
Ujuo||iunL[, 1996-2020 pp. hruuiiujiul|ujj|ili uii|jm[libp|i h|nJujLi i|piu 1|ш-тид^шй 1л1ипЬиш^ш1|1ш1|ш1| LÍnqbLlibp|i iupqjnltiplihp|i hшlîшÖшJLl, шрип-bpL|p|ng ulлшgL[nq iutiÖtiiul|iuti ипршЬифЬршЬЬрр 1|2ш1|ш1|ш[|1 qpmL|mli mqqb-grupjnLtj nLÎJbtJ 1[Ьр2^ш1|шЬ ull|шrlJшlJ, bbpdniMiuli, <LU-|i, JbL| Ьш2-i[ni[ <LU-|i Li hшJшfъlшrlll tibpiqpnuJbbp|n ь[рш: и1пшд1[ш0 qllшhшlлшL|шll-libpp h|iJß L|iupnq bli hшlJq|^uшllШL J2шL|bLnL шртшр|лЬ iutjÖtjiuL|iutj тршЬи-фЬр1п1|Ьр|п ш1[Ь[|л шpqJnLllШL[ЬLn j)iuqiuf)iuL|iutjni.pjnLli, npp 1^Ьа|ши1л|п шрьп-
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Oqinuiqnp6i|ui6 qpuil|uitirH|3jni.ti
1. 9-linpqjLuli (T., huwruuinjiuti 11., -Pn^fitijiuti L., UngfiLU[UjL|Ujti h[iJ-IjujL|luIi qujpq.ujgnLdtibp|n i[bp[nL6nLpjnLliQ <iujwuiniuti|i wbgnuJiu-jfltl LntlinbunLpjnLtiruJ, f^K LnljLnbULUq.|lLnnLpjLUlj $iul|ni.|inbin,
2. CfipfuLullJLull UL., T-pLudLullLub L|in|xiLulignLjtjbp|n Wqr|.bgnLpjnLtlQ « LntlLUjIntl LnljLnbunLpjnLljllbp|l LU2h-lLULHnL<±[n WrLW2LUpl||l l[piu, «U.JL" Qtiinpiutip» q|iinwl|wli hailiqbu, 2016/12:
3. lT|nqpwg|nnti ini|jiu|bbpQ Opiul|iupq 2030-|i hiudiuinbguinnul. d|iq-piug|iwj|i U. qiupqiugdiuti qtiiuhiuinnLjQ <iujiuuiniutiruJ, qbl|riLjg, LJ|nqpujg|nujj|n J|i2wqqwj|iti l|uiqiIujl|bpii|nL|ajnLti, 111/4 iaijaiuinai-
4. Abdelhadi S., Bashayreh A., Remittances and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Jordan, International Journal of Business and Social Scienc, Vol. 8, Number 12, December 2017.
5. Comes C.-A., Bunduchi E., Vasile V., Stefan D., The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments and Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study in Central and Eastern Europe. MDPI. Sustainability, 2018, 10, 238.
6. Gertler P.J., Martinez S.W., Rubio-Codina M., Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long-Term Living Standards. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2012, 4(1).
7. Kumar R. R., Stauvermann P. J., Patel A., Prasad S., The Effect of Remittances on Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan and Macedonia: Accounting for Financial Development. International Migration Vol. 56 (1) 2018.
8. Karapetyan L., Harutyunyan L., The Development and the Side Effects of Remittances in CIS Countries: the Case of Armenia, 2013, https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/27881/CARIM-East_RR-2013-24. pdf?sequence=2.
9. Olofsdotter K., Abdullaev R., Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Selected Asian and Former Soviet Union Countries. Lund University, School of Economics and Management, 2011.
10. Shera A., Meyer D., Remittances and their Impact on Economic Growth. Social and Management Sciences 21/1 (2013) 3-19.
11. https://www.armstat.am/file/article/sv_12_19a_520.pdf
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13. https://www.cba.am/am/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx
14. http://www.minfin.am/hy/page/_hy_chartJ
АЛВАРД ХАРАТЯН
Доцент кафедры математического моделирования в экономике ЕГУ,
кандидат экономических наук
ВАРСИК ТИГРАНЯН
Ассистент кафедры макроэкономики АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук
ЗАРУИ АВЕТЯН
Кредитный специалист Армэкономбанка
Оценка макроэкономического влияния внешних личных трансфертов РА.- В статье анализируется поток личных трансфертов из-за границы в Армению. Макроэкономическое влияние внешних личных трансфертов оценивалось с помощью эконометрических моделей, построенных для экономики Армении. Было установлено, что поступающие из-за границы личные трансферты в краткосрочной перспективе оказывают значительное положительное влияние на ВВП и расходную составляющую ВВП, а также на ВВП на душу населения. 10-процентное увеличение личных трансфертов из-за границы в текущем квартале положительно влияет на рост конечного потребления на 0,55 процентных пункта, в следующем квартале положительно влияет на рост ВВП на 1,2 процентных пункта и на рост ВВП на душу населения на 0,78 процентных пункта, а через год положительно влияет на рост валовых инвестиций на 1,78 процентных пункта.
Полученные оценки могут быть использованы в качестве основы для разработки эффективной макроэкономической политики, направленной на регулирование шоков, вызванных потоками внешних личных трансфертов.
Ключевые слова личные трансферты, ВВП, совокупный спрос, корреляционная матрица, эконометрическая модель. \Е1: С50, Е01
42 PllTjPbP cnsc 2020.3
ALVARD KHARATYAN
Associate Professor at the Chair of Mathematical Modeling at YSU,
PhD in Economics
VARSIK TIGRANYAN
Assistant Professor at the Chair of Macroeconomics,
PhD in Economics
ZARUHI AVETYAN
Credit Specialist at Armeconombank
Assessment of Macroeconomic Impact of RA External Personal Remittances.-The flow of personal remittances from abroad to Armenia is analyzed in the paper. The macroeconomic impact of external personal remittances was assessed using econometric models built for the RA economy. Personal remittances from abroad were found to have a significant positive impact on GDP and GDP expenditure components, as well as per capita GDP in the short run. A 10 percent increase in personal remittances from abroad in the current quarter has a positive impact on the growth of final consumption by 0.55 percentage points, in the next quarter it has a positive impact on GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points and on per capita GDP growth by 0.78 percentage points, in the next year it has a positive impact on gross investment growth by 1.78 percentage points.
The assessments obtained can be a basis for developing an effective macroeconomic policy aimed at regulating shocks caused by external personal remittance flows.
words: personal remittances, GDP, aggregate demand, correlation matrix, econometric model. JEL: C50, E01
