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2 Sb'u UKEssays, November 2018, Examining types of macroeconomic shocks,
https://www.ukessays.com/essays/economics/examining-types-of-macroeconomic-shocks-economics essay.php?vref=1:
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3 Sb'u Щепелева M., Финансовое заражение: Трансграничное распространение системного риска, мировая экономика и международные отношения, 2017, том 61, № 1, tg 17-28:
4 Sb'u Adam Т., Benecka S., Financial Stress Spillover & Financial Linkages between the Euro Area & the Czech Republic. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013, vol. 63, no. 1, tg 46-64:
5 Sb'u International Monetary Fund. Consolidated Spillover Report. 2011, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/ eng/2011/071111.pdf (accessed 2.02.2016):
6 Sb'u Ч-.11. <Tlbinpnujujti, lL[iiniup|iti 2nL)bpQ II JujL|pnmlimbuujL|ujli l|iujnLlinL[ajiuti iua|iuhni[iiiuli h|ni5bujfiibri.fiplibp[i «-nu5, uJuibbujfununLp-jnLti, bp., 2018.
7 Sb'u Щепелева M., Финансовое заражение: Трансграничное распространение системного риска, мировая экономика и международные отношения, 2017, том 61, № 1, tg 17-28, http://www.imemo.rU/files/File/magazines/meimo/01_2017/17-28Schepeleva012017.pdf:
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8 Sb'u Bacchetta P., Van Wincoop E., The Great Recession: A Self Fulfil ling Global Panic, NBER Working Paper No. 19062, May 2013, http://www.nber.org/papers/w19062:
9 Sb'u Моисеев С.P., Международное распространение кризиса, "Финансовый менеджмент", №3, 2002, http://www.finman.rU/articles/2002/3/656.html:
10 Sb'u Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia, Prepared by Ayvazyan K., Daban Т., November, 2015:
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12 Sb'u Grigoryan K., Petrosyan G., Vardanyan K., Avagyan G., Petrosyan, A External Vulnerability Assesement of Armenian Economy, Slovak international scientific journal, Vol. 2, N 42, 2020:
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17 Sb'u Ayvazyan K., Daban T., Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia, IMF working paper, Nov. 2015:
18 Sb'u How Do Growth-Promoting Policies Affect Macroeconomic Stability?, OECD Economics Department, Feb. 2014:
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19 VIX hwdwpfii[[i ^UJijinLj t LIUL ![>ntjri.wj|iti 2nLljUJj|i uiiuinujljn^iuliiulinLp-jnLlJi] uiniughll^ 30 op-l[lu qll|эlugpnllí, h[njlil[lj[nl[ S&P 500 hiuiiw|ai|]i oii|g[inlililjp[i qlibp|i i|puj, pnlj[ t" uilu[[iu qliiu-hiumlj[ 2ml|lujiul|luIi nfiul|q Ll libpr).pnr\liljp|i LnpujLiLuri.pnl[ajnLliQ, [lii^ hiuJujp tl wtii|Lutii|nLLi t liiub «i[lu[u|i l|iui5 «i[uj[u[i hlui5lup|iq»: Sb'u https://www.investopedia.com/terms /v/vix.asp:
20 Sb'u Choi S., The impact of US financial uncertainty shocks on emerging market economies: an international credit channel. Open Economies Review, 25(1), 2018, tg 89-118:
21 Sb'u Financial volatility and economic growth. Global Economic Outlook: Second quarter 2016. BBVA Research:
Ч-0шщшш1|Ьр 3. VIX hiuiliu/ailli 2nlfD к ipui iuqq.bgnipjnib[i hfiiSbuilfiub
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22 Sh'u CC >-14, https://www.armstat.am/am/?nid=202:
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ЕВГЕНИЯ БАЗИНЯН
Ассистент кафедры экономико-математических методов АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук
АЙК БЕДЖАНЯН
Ассистент кафедры банковского дела и страхования АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук
АРТУР АЙ РУМЯН
Ассистент кафедры теории экономики АГЭУ,
кандидат экономических наук
НАРЕК КАРАПЕТЯН
Аспирант кафедры финансов АГЭУ
ТАТЕВИК РОСТОМЯН
Магистрант кафедры макроэкономики АГЭУ
Внешние шоки, влияющие на экономику РА и пути их передачи- Внешние шоки оказывают большое влияние на экономическое развитие Республики Армения. В статье авторы выделили 3 основных типа значимых для Армении внешних шоков: экономический рост стран-партнеров, шок на международном финансовом рынке и цены на сырье, для которых были изучены способы передачи с помощью модели векторной авторегрессии. Выявлено, что шоки экономического роста как России, так и ЕС и США передаются в экономику Армении, и были показаны также различия в механизмах их передачи. Оказалось, что шоки цен на сырье и условия международного финансового рынка воздействуют на экономику Армении через четкие механизмы передачи. Статья дополняет эмпирическую литературу по внешним шокам экономики Армении и путях их передачи более подробным исследованием и дает основу для подчеркивания важности мониторинга конкретных источников шоков в разработке макроэкономической политики.
Ключевые слова глобальные экономические циклы, уязвимость, торговый путь, финансовый путь, внешний спрос, цены на медь, модель векторной авторегрессии.
С60, Е 30
26 PllTjPbP cnsc 2020.3
YEVGENYA BAZINYAN
Assistant Professor at the Chair of Mathematical Methods in Economics atASUE,
PhD in Economics
HAYK BEJANYAN
Assistant Professor at the Chair of Banking and Insurance at ASUE,
PhD in Economics
ARTUR AYRUMYAN
Assistant Professor at the Chair of Theory of Economics atASUE,
PhD in Economics
NAREK KARAPETYAN
PhD Student at the Chair of Finance at ASUE
TATEVIK ROSTOMYAN
MA Student at the Chair of Macroeconomics at ASUE
External Shocks Affecting RA Economy and Their Transmission Channels.- External shocks have a great impact on the economic development of the Republic of Armenia. In this paper, the authors have singled out 3 main types of significant external shocks for Armenia: economic growth of partner countries, the international financial market and prices of raw material assets, for which the transmission channels have been studied through the vector autoregression model. It has been revealed that Russian, EU and USA economic growth shocks are all transmitted to Armenian economy. Also the differences in the transmission mechanisms of these shocks have been shown in the paper. It has been identified that both the shocks of raw material assets and the conditions of the international financial market affect Armenian economy through clear transmission mechanisms. The research replenishes the empirical literature with a more comprehensive study regarding the external shocks of RA economy and the ways of their transmission, as well as provides a basis for emphasizing the importance of monitoring specific sources of shocks in macroeconomic policy development.
Key words: global economic cycles, vulnerability, trade channel, financial channel, external demand, copper prices, vector autoregressive model. JEL: C60, E 30
