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MILITARY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN CHINA: MODERN DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
© Plastinina Daria Evgenievna1 © Dzis Yulia Ivanovna2
1 student, Siberian Federal university, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2 Candidate of Science (Political Science), Assistant Professor, Siberian Federal university, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Abstract. Artificial intelligence has not only begun to be introduced by states in various spheres of activity, but has also become part of everyday life. China, as an emerging great power, strives to maintain and improve its positions in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) at a rapid pace, with military artificial intelligence as one of its priorities. The article analyzes the activities of the Chinese government aimed at the development of military artificial intelligence systems, examines the existing threats, and also provides recommendations on the use of automated weapons.
Keywords: China, Military Artificial Intelligence (MAI), automated weapons, prospects for MAI development in China.
The use of artificial intelligence by large states has become one of the main means to achieve dominance on the world stage. Along with the use of automated systems in vital spheres (education, industry, medicine, etc.), achieving economic superiority and improving living standards, artificial intelligence has also become an integral part of warfare and the defense sector.
According to statistics, China currently ranks second after the United States in terms of artificial intelligence development, and the global market in this area is growing by 44.5% annually, while the cost of AI development ranges from 1.6 to 2.7 billion dollars, which is approximately equal to the cost of American AI. These data clearly demonstrate that China is striving to compete with the United States in the near future and rise to the highest level of artificial intelligence development.
The widespread introduction of artificial intelligence in China has become the national interest of the country and has come to the fore, so the concept of the transition of war from "informational" to "intellectual" has influenced the speed and nature of the development of artificial automated systems [1].
Since 2014, Xi Jinping has been paying particular attention to changes related to the development of military technologies, that is why at the meeting of the Politburo in August the Chinese leader set the goal to develop artificial automated systems in the military sphere for the reformation of the RMA.
An important step forward in the development of military AI is considered to be the adoption of the "White Paper" in 2015, namely the Chinese Military Strategy, which refers to a "new stage" in the development of military AI. As part of this, 7 areas were identified in which the PLA is mastering artificial intelligence, where the most popular are intelligence, intelligent and autonomous transport, intelligence and information weapons, as well as automatic target recognition.
The turning point in the development of AI in China was the adoption by the State Council of China of the "Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Program" in 2017 in which the main directions of the development of artificial intelligence were highlighted. A plan was developed with the purpose of improving military equipment, making command decisions, as well as increasing funding for paramilitary systems, as Xi Jinping said. This implementation was the first initiative on the national level that is directly focused on the development of paramilitary AI as Chinese common strategy. China has set a benchmark for the Development of its C4ISR among which are command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
At the moment, China has many goals, and, in addition to economic superiority, China also seeks to gain military leadership, which is confirmed by the Communist Party in a report from the Ministry of Defense and Military Power of China for 2020. According to the report, the PLA plans to reach a qualitatively new level of military equipment and warfare, which will be carried out with the aim of conducting a systemic
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war, as well as the ability to seriously repel hostile neighbors. Conflicts with the Uighurs, unresolved contradictions with Hong Kong and Taiwan, conflicts in the South China Sea - all these problems motivate China to accelerate the pace of development in the military sphere, in particular in the field of AI, as well as to change the approach to warfare.
According to the Science of Military Strategy from 2017, China's main objectives in the field of AI development in China are:
- focusing on the development of key areas and technologies of the military industry, as well as equipping them with artificial intelligence systems for self-response;
- implementation of planning and new programs, as well as the development of new methods of intelligence and tracking to intercept the initiative from rivals;
- control over the innovation sector and initiation of faster rates of development of paramilitary systems [2].
The implementation of China's development plan in the field of paramilitary intelligence is achieved through artificial intelligence development companies, human resources development, foreign investment and technology transfer, as well as civil-military mergers or the use of the latest achievements of civilian technologies for military purposes. At the same time, the speed of China's development is determined not only by strict control of all processes and large financial and material investments, but also by human resources, which control about 20% of all strategic resources in the world [3].
The main trend that China denotes in its approach to military AI is to accelerate the pace of warfare and its complete transition to automated and systemic. The "intellectualization" of the war has put new demands on the development of military technologies. To this end, China is developing militarized intelligence in the following areas:
1. Unmanned combat intelligent systems (Rainbow, WZ-8).
The war of systems without human participation is the future, behind which there is success in achieving an asymmetric advantage in battles. The use of unmanned systems in the near
future can both replace a person, and save a lot of money in terms of personnel selection. Moreover, it can be used as a countermeasure in response to their development in other countries. With the help of these systems, more accurate communication and data transmission, reconnaissance, evaluation of combat operations and fire guidance are possible. Also, when AI is embedded in conventional weapons, it becomes programmed and can act independently, which also supports the concept of the possible use of an "army without weapons" in the near future.
The main types of weapons developing in the field of military systems include:
- PLA Navy (surface vessels, underwater vehicles/submarines),
- PLA Air Force (small drones),
- PLA Rocket Force (machine learning, including neural networks),
- PLA Strategic Support Force, that is looking to leverage advances in AI in support of its missions of space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare [4].
2. Wargaiming.
The lack of combat experience and the ability to conduct war in practice makes it possible for China to develop in the direction of wargaiming and modeling. These systems allow you to conduct a real-time military training in game and simulation systems and work out combat tactics, as well as simulate weapons in specialized systems. China sees the future behind the systems, and development in this direction will give it great advantages in the tactical approach to warfare.
3. Strengthening inter-domain deterrence and attack
Considering the space, nuclear and cyber fields, China aims to strengthen them through the use of automated systems that will help it improve its attack and defense capabilities. China is striving to ensure that nuclear weapons are not only its most effective method of fighting, but also operate in the format of automated systems. Machine learning and applied neural networks can create an ideal defense for a new system and give an advantage in waging wars, as well as be intermediaries in improving China's cyber systems. Acting as a well-coordinated mechanism and easily eliminating human errors, artificial intelligence is able to separate friendly objects
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from enemies and act in accordance with circumstances.
Dangers of military AI development
Active development of military artificial intelligence, along with the benefits also creates threats that negatively affect the domestic political and international situation. Due to China's growing influence in the field of artificial intelligence, it is becoming a threat to other states, so they seek to strengthen artificial intelligence technologies in response, which is likely to cause a new arms race in which not only Western countries, but also Asian states (South and North Korea, India, Japan, etc.) will take part. This, in turn, creates threats of uncontrolled use of weapons by states and violations of arms control obligations, as well as the possibility of systems to fall into the hands of undesirable persons. For example, the Islamic State (forbidden on the territory of the Russian Federation) has already used Chinese DJI drones as explosive devices, as well as for surveillance purposes.
In addition, there is an even greater risk associated with the use of military systems. Automation of nuclear weapons systems, which is increasingly being practiced at the moment, risks becoming a cause for China to unleash nuclear wars and provoke international conflicts. Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work expressed the opinion that the use of automated artificial intelligence is dangerous due to the imperfection of the technological level and recognition of response systems [5]. So it is quite likely that the weapon will not be able to read all the available material or react differently in unpredictable situations. Chinese nuclear warning systems are still not perfect and may be susceptible to failures, so military intelligence will have to go through a long period of mastering code systems and programming artificial intelligence.
Another difficulty that China may face in the use of military systems is the lack of combat experience and practice of using military artificial intelligence in military operations. This, in turn, can lead to poor coordination and poor-quality operation of systems with complex mechanisms for control. The military intelligence of China, despite its high level of development, still does not know how to make decisions on its own in case of emergency, and system failures and errors still
remain a gap in the successful use of new equipment systems.
China's approach to solving these problems is quite contradictory, since the political goals of the state are not always correlated with the public benefit. So, in 2019, the Chinese government issued new principles proclaiming "good intentions" in the use of paramilitary systems for the population, thereby introducing ethical standards in the use of intelligent weapons. On the one hand, the PLA acts primarily to protect the civilian population and ensures the security of the existing regime. However, on the other hand, it will be difficult for China to implement an ethical control strategy at the same time with a priority for leadership positions in the field of AI, because, along with the defense industry, means for attacking, surveillance and manipulating public consciousness are being created, which contradicts the policy of containing the new intelligence.
The proposal of the Director General of the Department for Arms Control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China Fu Tsung to create rules and regulations for the use of artificial intelligence in the military sphere was met with skepticism, because despite the humane considerations of this statement, in fact, China only continues to increase its military force and nuclear weapons [6]. In order to develop military intelligence to benefit not only the motives of the government, but also the needs of the population, it is necessary to pay attention to some aspects of the coordination of AI activities in the military sphere, namely:
- to regulate at the legislative level the cases of the use of military AI, to clearly identify the maximum volumes of military developments, as well as to fix the sanctions that will follow the violation of the established rules for more effective and controlled development of AI;
- create reliable conditions for the functioning of military AI and qualitatively approach the verification of the operability of systems before their introduction into practice of military activities;
- strictly approach the control over the process of creating automated systems, as well as limit the introduction of artificial intelligence into weapons that pose a particular danger to human life, such as nuclear weapons;
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- cooperate at the interstate level and collectively resolve issues on the use of military intelligence, including with the participation of the United States and the European Union.
In addition, China should especially think about further relations with the United States in the field of regulating the use of artificial intelligence, since their rivalry is only growing every year. The United States pursues the goal of resisting the strengthening of China's position on the world stage, and it will use any methods to achieve it, including illegal ones, and frequent cyber attacks on states only confirm this fact. States need to find common ground in the development of the military sphere and think about real opportunities for the development of AI for the benefit of the population, and not to fight each other. Be that as it may, such a reality seems utopian at the moment and requires a long effort for China and the United States to slow down their momentum in the race for a competitive advantage.
Taking everything into consideration, we can draw a number of conclusions:
1. The development of military artificial intelligence systems is being widely introduced into practice of China's defensive and offensive activities, and the development of new artificial intelligence systems is reaching a much higher level of its effectiveness and implementation. China's desire to achieve the first place in the development of AI at the global level poses new requirements and it is necessary to adapt in order to maintain its leadership.
2. The development of new military systems and unmanned engines in-game training, as well as the development of multi-domain systems will allow China in the near future to become a recognized leader not only in the East Asia region, but also around the world.
3. At the current stage, China is taking on greater responsibility in the development and application of artificial intelligence, so if it claims to be the "best" in this area, it should pay more attention to the legislative regulation of the use of automated systems, as well as the quality of the work of programmable systems.
4. It is very important that China both realizes the danger of using such weapons, and acts in accordance with the interests of its people, and not the political goals of the government,
because it might lead not only to conflicts, but also to a large-scale intellectual war, which will pose a much greater threat to human resources than traditional wars.
5. Military artificial intelligence is still a complex system to understand and requires long training before using it as a fully-fledged force.
6. Despite the development of technology, human resources will continue to be an important tool for achieving success in this area, so it cannot be said that in the near future weapons will completely replace humans, and robots will wage wars. Nevertheless, time does not stand still, and artificial intelligence may well become the strongest weapon in China's hands if it responsibly treats its development and application.
References:
1. Deepak Kumar Gupta. Military applications of Artificial Intelligence. Indian Defense Review. Available from: http ://www. indiandefencereview. com/military-applications-of-artificial-intelligence/
2. DoD's 2021 China Military Power Report: How Advances in AI and Emerging Technologies Will Shape China's Military. Council of Foreign Relations. Available from: https://www.cfr.org/blog/dods-2021-china-military-power-report-how-advances-ai-and-emerging-technologies-will-shape
3. Elsa B. Kama. «AI weapons» in Chinese military innovation. Global China, 2020, pp. 1-23.
4. Elsa B. Kania. Chinese Military Innovation in Artificial Intelligence. Center for a New American Security, 2019, pp. 1-53.
5. Jiayu_Zhang. Artificial
Intelligence and its Security Implications. The International Affairs Review. Available from: China's Military Employment of Artificial Intelligence and Its Security Implications — THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS REVIEW (iar-gwu.org)
6. Michael C. Horowitz. The promise and peril of military applications of artificial intelligence. Available from: https://thebulletin.org/2018/04/the-promise-and-peril-of-militarv-applications-of-artificial-intelligence/
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ВОЕНИЗИРОВАННЫЙ ИСКУССТВЕННЫЙ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТ В КИТАЕ: РАЗВИТИЕ НА СОВРЕМЕННОМ ЭТАПЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ
© Пластинина Дарья Евгеньевна1, © Дзись Юлия Ивановна2
1студент,
Сибирский федеральный университет, Красноярск, Россия
2канд. полит. наук, доцент, Сибирский федеральный университет, Красноярск, Россия
Искусственный интеллект не только стал внедряться государствами в разные сферы деятельности, но и вошел в практику повседневной жизни. Китай как передовая держава стремится поддерживать свой уровень и совершенствуется в сфере развития искусственного интеллекта (ИИ)
стремительными темпами, а одним из приоритетных направлений его деятельности является военизированный искусственный интеллект. В статье анализируется деятельность правительства Китая по развитию военизированных систем искусственного интеллекта, рассматриваются существующие угрозы, а также даются рекомендации по использованию автоматизированного оружия.
Ключевые слова: Китай,
военизированный искусственный интеллект (ВИИ), автоматизированное оружие, перспективы развития ВИИ в Китае.
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