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are subject to obligatory certification, which is executed by the organs of the Gosstandart of Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan is the first country of the world community possessing the neutrality recognized by United Nations. The policy of Turkmenistan's neutrality makes it possible consequently and purposefully to put into life the large scale reforms in the oil and gas industry, in construction, chemical, energy, agricultural and other branches of economy as well as in the social sphere.
Summing up, it is necessary to say that the national economy of Turkmenistan dynamically developed for twenty years since creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States. However, in 2010 due to global economic crisis the external trade turnover and export of the country was reduced mainly as a result of smaller amounts of trade with the CIS member-states. In 2011 Turkmenistan took steps for correction of this situation, which will promote extension of geo-economic partnership with the countries of the Commonwealth.
"Perspektivy razvitiya ekonomicheskogo potentsiala
Sodruzhestva Nazavisimykh Gosudarstv", M., 2011, pp. 242-250.
Evgeni Borodin,
Political analyst
KYRGYZSTAN: IN SEARCH OF ITS OWN WAY OF DEVELOPMENT
Kyrgyzstan was one of the first states in Central Asia taking the way of democratic reforms and market transformations, which conditioned its high authority and positive image on the international arena and consequently support on the part of democratic countries. For the first years of independence the main institutions of democratic statehood and multi-structural economy were formed in the republic,
the macro-economic stabilization was achieved and the growth of gross national product was going on. The social and inter-national consent was maintained in the country.
At the same time, it should be mentioned that for the last years the trends to authoritarian rule and concentration of political power by a small circle (to the detriment of legislative and judicial organs of power), the attempts were made to exclude political parties, civil society and social associations from political life of the country.
It resulted in significant faults in public consciousness. The problems of social and issues of world outlook were aggravated due to systemic corruption in all state institutions, unjust distribution of economic benefits and financial flows and careless utilization of foreign assistance. Owing to all this the meaning of the international community about Kyrgyzstan as a country going on the way of democracy changed to the negative side.
For the last years, the key problems caused by unstable economy, large scale unemployment and degraded legal system, chronic failures in municipal services, energy and infrastructure and other sectors lacked adequate attention for a long unacceptable period of time. The number of tragic events in spring 2010 demonstrated the legal vulnerability and inefficiency of the existed system of state governance. The accumulated conflicting potential was displayed by the events in spring 2010 and was solved in principal by the change of the republic's leadership and of the constitutional order.
However, for the last years the public-political processes fixed negative tendencies in life of Kyrgyzstan. The clannish order in politics and economy bringing corruption transformed the elite groups in small corporate societies separated from the population of the country. The clannish-political groups of the republic concentrated in the struggle for power and resources utilizing public feelings and resentment as an
instrument of realization of their aims; and they actually were not concerned about either strategic planning or problems of economic development. A great part of economically active population periodically left the country, primarily to Russia and Kazakhstan, which partially alleviated the tension. The share of labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan leaving their country achieved 45% of able bodied population. It makes 1 million people of 5 million people, living in the country.
The world financial crisis had an impact on labor migration from Middle Asia and reduced it. The mass unemployment, social exposure and unfairness, periodic rise of prices for communal services together with the growing stratification in Kyrgyz society became the stimulus for the growth of radical feelings in the country.
The constitutional reform carried out in autumn of 2010 changed the presidential-parliamentarian republic in the parliamentarian-presidential republic. Under conditions of period failures of the legal system and of the increasing nihilism in society, the recently adopted legal acts and documents may be questioned any time, and it occurs in the Kyrgyz Republic. New emerging opposition forces (not always consisting of supporters of the former regime), before and after parliamentary elections, will strive for disavowing legitimacy of a number of decisions taken by the new powers. The wave of nationalization covering some important national objects of economy was the start of the redistribution of property, and in this connection the level of opposition among the competing clans became higher.
The political processes in Kyrgyzstan were marked by regeneration of the role and influence of clannish groups on the regional, local and tribal basis intensified for the period of K. Bakiyev governance. As was shown by the recent events, the resources of the clannish groups (power, financial, tribal, local etc. resources) and the
struggle for them are the deciding factors in actual politics of contemporary Kyrgyzstan. For instance, one of the factors in the Kyrgyz clannish-political structure is determined by geographic separation for the northern (Chu, Talas, Naryn and Issyk-Kul) and southern (Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken) clans, which partially coincide with historic division of Kyrgyz tribes into the left (sol-kanat) and the right (on-kanat) wings and ichkiliks (internal) tribes. The big and influential tribes of the north are as follows: sarybagysh, bugu, solto, kushchu, sayak, saruu, kytai and others. The largest southern tribes are - ichkiliks, the largest tribe otuz-uul, which is divided into the influential tribal groups - munduz, adygene and others.
Under the conditions of existence of inefficient institutions and rules, which are constantly ignored by leading political forces, the clannish-political structures as well as their mobility and adaptability demonstrated their relative vitality. This resource was widely used both by Bakiyev clan and by the competing groups.
The rapid degradation of legal mechanisms led to enforcement of archaic forms of mobilization and political activities. The public declarations of many politicians using democratic rhetoric are meant for mass media. At the same time, the real mechanism moving the political process in the country is within the closed clannish scheme of distribution of power and other resources. The mass-scale poverty, unemployment, the reduced economic capacity and the limited resources of the government promoted conservation of the clannish structure.
The peculiar feature of the situation was displayed in participation in conflicts in 2010 of criminal structures connected evidently with opposing clans. The south of Kyrgyzstan, Osh and JalalAbad are primarily the key points in the mass-scale smuggled trade of Chinese products and the large-scale narcotics traffic from Afghanistan.
The change of power in April provoked a new stage of struggle for control over profitable spheres of trade, services and other economic assets, contributed to the re-distribution of property among competing clans.
The above described situation in Kyrgyzstan means that its future is indeterminate. The storms of two revolutions still blow in the country. Under such conditions it is very difficult to foresee further development of the Kyrgyz Republic, which occupies a significant geopolitical and geo-economic position as a connecting bridge between the West and the East, as well as between the North and the South. In terms of its political and social-economic parameters Kyrgyzstan is still at the transitional stage of its development; it is included in the group of developing countries; it is the country without exit to sea.
Kyrgyzstan is one of the possible natural testing areas (training centers) for studies of the state of people, technique and constructions in extreme mountainous conditions. Kyrgyzstan is an international ecological donor: springs of pure drinking water, biological diversity, a low level of emission of hotbed gas. The glacial stocks of 13 years water flows represent the capital, which is much more precious than the riches of raw resources.
The research organization Population Reference Bureau has made the prognosis of the population growth in Kyrgyzstan up to 8.3 million people by 2050. The tempos of natural growth of population do not have evident impact on either GNP, either level of inflation, either correlation of marriages and divorces, either coefficient of the share of the youth with higher education, or migration. All this makes it possible to characterize this social phenomenon as a demographic "explosion" following certain slump for the middle of the 1990s and to evaluate it as a strategic resource of the country's development. For the first part of the 1990s a great outflow of the population started: people
emigrated voluntarily for reasons of ethnic belonging and for economic considerations.
All these resettlements resulted in the change of permanent place of living. The recent trend is connected with provisional migration. It is caused exclusively by economic reasons. These migration flows represent an important factor of regional cooperation. The total number of migrants from Kyrgyzstan makes 10% of the whole labor force. The excess of the labor force, related to a high level of birth rate in the countries of Central Asia results in creation of a great reserve of labor force, which is ready to fill in the niches of labor markets in Russia and Kazakhstan.
The existence of such great part of labor force, situated abroad, has numerous economic, social and human consequences for Kyrgyzstan. According to different estimations, the sum of foreign money remittance may make from $ 120 million to $ 300 million, i.e. more than inflow of direct foreign investments. The money transfers represent one of the main reasons of reduction of poverty for the recent years, some experts consider.
The national interests in the field of economy assumed as its basis predict the overcoming of the crisis, the sustainable growth to ensure integration in the world and regional economy at the acceptable conditions as well as the balanced decision of social-economic tasks. The promotion of formation of efficient economics by attraction of foreign investments, integration of Kyrgyzstan in the world and regional economic space, as well as ensuring economic security represent the most significant directions of external economic policy.
Kyrgyzstan depends on the IMF and the World Bank, where the U.S.A. plays the leading role. The interests of Russia and China limit the American influence in the region. The promotion of democracy and liberal economics remains a priority in relations of Kazakhstan with the
U.S.A. and EU. In perspective the prospects are seen for maintained relations with the United Europe, in particular with Germany. The corridor "Europe-Asia" makes Europe and China being interested in sovereignty and development of the countries in Central Asia. The biggest donor of Kyrgyzstan is Japan. Japan and Germany are the biggest stock-owners of the Asian Bank of Development. The grants of the Asian Bank of Development and of the World Bank received by Kyrgyzstan were made mainly by Japan.
For the middle period perspective, the CIS countries will as usual account for 50% of trade partners of Kyrgyzstan. In its relations with Uzbekistan the lack of water resources will be used in the same way by Kyrgyzstan as it uses the dependence of the country on gas. Kyrgyzstan is needed by Kazakhstan due to the lack of water and electric energy in its southern regions. The southern regions of Kyrgyzstan are in need of cheap labor force and oil products coming from Tajikistan. The railway route through Afghanistan may open the exit to the Indian Ocean for the countries of Central Asia.
Kyrgyzstan lacks the needed amount of goods at the regional and world level - of oil, metals and grain (like in Kazakhstan) and of gas, cotton and gold (like in Uzbekistan). The neighboring countries produce more agricultural goods. But the natural resources of the country make it possible to produce ecologically pure products and medicines being in popular demand in the world market. Kyrgyzstan may become a knot of electric energy communications and may orient itself to the export of electric energy taking into account the rising demand of it. Kyrgyzstan has the borders with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the friendly states being close to it in terms of culture, history, ethnic origin and confessions. Kyrgyzstan actively participates in integration processes of different format involving other countries of Central Asia.
It is possible to mention the following unfavorable factors: the situation within the continental region, the lack of direct exit to world communications, the weak infrastructure of transport and communications, the distance from the centers of economic and political influence.
The neighborhood of Kyrgyzstan with China creates favorable conditions for development of trade-economic cooperation with this country, which also is a member of the World Trade Organization, for diversification and modernization of transport infrastructure and overcoming national isolation. Thus, considering probable losses and advantages of realization of some or other strategy it is possible to conclude as follows: under conditions of the multi-polar world the integrity of territory keeps the significance of basic factor for Kyrgyzstan as a competent object of international law and sovereign state with legitimate government and unitary form of state order. The meaning of this factor is characterized by the evident trend to growth in case of unification of Eurasian space thanks to regional projects -railway, large electric stations and communications on the basis of information technologies.
The above made analysis showed that the way of development for Kyrgyzstan would be possible within the framework of five basic scenarios.
1. The first scenario consists in the multi-vector policy carried out for a long time. This course has more perspectives, since it allows maintenance of the balance of forces in the region making concessions to some or other forces, while determined defense of national interests in the long-term perspective is possible only by adequate application of international lawful aspects of cooperation; however, weak economics, small military forces and small population pre-condition relatively not great capacity for carrying out actually independent foreign and
economic policy. The strategy of multi-vector policy implies movement to a balanced and consistent multi-vector foreign policy of the state. As a whole, it is a rather successful strategy for the situation, when neither of the leading centers of the world and the region feels that it possesses the adequate force to advance to the position of unconditional dominance.
The situation of the definite subjection of governance emerges in the country itself. At the same time, weakening of the state power in the region's countries, as is shown by the example of Kyrgyzstan, may be used by external forces to make attempts for changing the geopolitical configuration of the region. Therefore a rather successful strategy of national development on the basis of flexible course is fraught with a danger of fast loss of sustainability due to weakness of the state governance, in particular under conditions of aggravation of struggle of external forces for influence in the region. Probably, this is the worst strategy from the point of view of ensuring stability, since the external forces start to feel that the geopolitical space is not occupied and this sense provokes their active attempts to change the situation for their advantage. The complexity of execution of this strategy is the need of virtuosity in carrying out foreign policy, which is a complicated task for a small country with limited resources.
2. The second scenario means the entry in the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan or Russia and the growing political and economic dependence on Kazakhstan (or Russia). In principle, this is the option of giving full powers in the choice of strategic way of development to the state, which is close ethnically and mentally and possessing greater primarily economic might. In pure form this scenario is also difficult to realize, since although Kazakhstan (Russia) has much greater capacity than Kyrgyzstan, however, other "global players" are not interested in this dependence. The realization of this scenario actually means that the
optional way of development of Kyrgyzstan will be chosen by Astana (Moscow) in correlation of four other scenarios. The strategy "Entry in the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan (Russia)" is accompanied, on the one side, with the partial loss of sovereignty, a possible territorial division, but, on the other side, it is accompanied with the rise of level of living of the majority of the population of the country thanks to the real economic growth. At the same time, the scheme of delegation of powers in selection of a strategic way to though much mightier but still comparable state in terms of its capacity seems to be not completely justified.
3. "Eurasian integration" is one of the most acceptable scenarios for Kyrgyzstan, since potentially it allows Kyrgyzstan, side by side with other states of Central Asia, to become a systemic creating entity of the great geopolitical association, like small European states, which are able to achieve success thanks to their membership in EU in order to raise their significance and influence on the international arena. However, the chances of Kyrgyzstan for development according to this scenario are reduced by a relative progress in construction of valuable integration structures of EEP, EvrAzES and SHOS. The only trump card of Kyrgyzstan in this process is its key position at the crossroads from China to Europe and from Russia to Asia and India. The aim of strategy called "European Integration" will be economic and military-political integration of the post-Soviet space. By 2020, the united economic and defense space of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan may be formed. The priority regions of integration cooperation for Kazakhstan are described below:
the creation will be completed of the regional water-energy consortium characterized by transfer to it of key elements of infrastructure. Each country will have its share. The consortium makes it possible to predict estimates of economic, social and ecological
effects of the existing system of water regulation and energy production. It represents a rational justification of the choice of working regime profitable for each country. Kyrgyzstan should receive a part of incomes of the irrigated agriculture of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and cover a part of profits received by irrigated agricultural farms of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and should compensate a part of damage caused by submerged area in the low stream of Syr-Darya river; in their turn, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan should receive their part of incomes of energy production in Naryn cascade. The estimation of the size of expenses and benefits is a very complicated political and technical task, but nevertheless it should be accomplished;
the mechanisms of economic cooperation, including trade, investments, transit, development of infrastructure should be created on the basis of obligatory observation of all rules and sanctions for their violation. Such mechanisms might be based on the rules of the WTO;
the cooperation in the sphere of security protecting the region's countries from threats of terrorism, extremism and organized criminality should be arranged;
"Eurasian integration" represents the most attractive scenario both for Kyrgyzstan and Russia, since the high level of foreign policy achievements will be realized not thanks to national limited resources but as a result of impact of the common might of Eurasian Union.
4. "Entry in the sphere of influence of China" is a very probable scenario with due account of growing economic might of China and its geographic nearness. The main danger in the course of realization of this scenario is connected with the threat of ethnic and cultural dissolution. At the same time, there exists the risk of copying the Chinese scheme of extensive development (utilization of the schemes of industrial development ignoring ecological norms and being based on low paid labor), which may lead to the loss of competitive
advantages of Kyrgyzstan as a unique bio-sphere zone and to preservation or even aggravation of social instability in the country. In pure form this scenario may be realized with great difficulties, since other "global players" are not interested in such dependence.
5. "Euro-Atlantic option" with its seemed attractive entry in the sphere of influence of the most developed states of the world is fraught with rather great threats, since development of economically weak states in the system of open liberal economy, as a rule, fixes economic periphery. At the same time, the land situation of Kyrgyzstan aggravates its dependence on its neighbors, since the main transport routes connecting Kazakhstan with the external world are laid through their territories. The urge of Kyrgyzstan towards playing the role of the big transit knot may also be realized against the background of friendly relations with great powers of the region. Under these conditions, the formation of strategy of national development on the bases of Euro-Atlantic orientation seems to be short-sited from the point of view of the key geopolitical factors of development of Kyrgyzstan. "Euro-Atlantic option" as a strategy is hopeless for Kyrgyzstan due to its location within the continent. The radical option of search for independence of continental neighbors in practice means transformation of the country in a colony of the third, distant power. Georgia represents the most spectacular example in the space of CIS. However, in Kyrgyzstan this scenario is more difficult for its implementation due to its geopolitical position.
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Thus, for the midterm period the interests of Kyrgyzstan will consist in protection of its constitutional system, sovereignty and territorial integrity, ensuring social-political stability and economic development. The adequately determined national interests let chose the
justified (from the point of view of development's objectives, existing resources and chances) strategic perspective of the state's development. The due account of local peculiarities facilitates definition and the best use of social-cultural features of the state and society needed for their reformation. The international experience allows Kyrgyzstan successfully to integrate itself in the world system with full comprehension of universal and generally accepted "code" and, in its turn, in the atmosphere of being comprehended. A significant element of implementation of this program becomes the creation of the modern state adapted to realities of globalization and being able to carry out the program of long-term reforms.
The other scenarios of economic development are characterized by the trend to reduction of specific meanings of the factor, which in practice means the aggravation of division to the north and the south, the fragmentary development, i.e. the lack of the united economic space of the country. For the midterm perspective, the small size of the country will be a sign of backwardness.
"Vnutripoliticheskoe i sotsialno-economicheskoe razvitie Kyrgyzstana", M., 2011, pp. 245-256.
Victor Korgun,
D.Sc. (Hist.) - IOS of RAS
THE AFGHAN CONFLICT AND CENTRAL ASIA
The region of Central Asia is connected with Afghanistan in terms of ethnic origin, history, politics and economics. For the last quarter of century after the Soviet invasion to Afghanistan in 1979 the political destinies of the Central Asian countries and this country were to some extent reciprocally connected and depended.
