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E. Ionova,
Ph.D. (Hist.), Institute of World Economy & International Relations, RAS GEOPOLITICAL ASPECTS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN
Presidential elections, the fourth since independence of the republic, were held in Uzbekistan on March 29. As expected, the current president Islam Karimov has won, nominated by the Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan. According to the majority observers, the elections have become uncontested as soon as Karimov announced the decision to run for president. The reason for such unanimity was not only an autocratic system of government in Uzbekistan, but also that his personality has been associated with the preservation of stability and order in the republic.
Islam Karimov has headed the republic for 26 years (he was appointed the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan in 1989), and managed to prevent a civil war in Uzbekistan in the 1990s. Thus Islam Karimov is perceived as a guarantor of stability in Uzbekistan not only in the country but also abroad.
The current president put forward a program "Tinchy bulsin" -"Let there be peace," and received the full support of the electorate. Other contenders were not real rivals to I. Karimov. In general, the elections demonstrated that the majority of the population considered the preservation of stability and peace more important than any of the other principles of development of society.
The probability of destabilization increases due to rising threat of radical Islamism. They can be "both external (possible invasion of Afghan fighters) and internal (Islamist attempts to organize a public protest and a revolution after the death of Karimov)."1 There is a danger
of revitalization radical Islamic organizations in northern Afghanistan, expressing direct threats against Tashkent.
"The Islamic state" becomes a factor that can influence the situation in Afghanistan and strengthen the terrorist threat to Central Asian countries. According to the National Security Service of Uzbekistan, there are about 5 thousand. members of a terrorist organization "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" (more than half are from Uzbekistan), fighting on the side of the Islamic State.
Afghan extremists have sent emissaries to Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries for conducting propaganda. According to official statements of the NSS of Uzbekistan, the Islamic State planned attacks in March in connection with the presidential elections and the holiday of Navruz, their activity increased on the Uzbek-Afghan border as well2. According to the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan, the terrorist group from Syria, and Turkey (planning a series of terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) has been neutralized as a result of joint actions of the law enforcement agencies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan3.
Measures to improve security in the country are taken, the state border is strengthened anti-terror exercises, and discussions with the population are held. In addition, the issue of amnesty for supporters of the Islamic State, who decided to return to Uzbekistan, is solved. This measure applies only to those who are not stained with the blood, and has repented of their deeds (according to unofficial data, there are thousands of Uzbek citizens in the ranks of the Islamic State)4.
The growth of terrorist threat in Central Asia may be instigated by Washington, according to some experts. Even in 2011, A. Magomedov, an independent expert on Central Asia, expressed the opinion that the United States would try to destabilize the situation in
Uzbekistan to create problems for Russia and China, after the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan5.
Nowadays official Washington claims that the stability and security of Central Asian countries strengthen the US security, contribute to global efforts in the fight against terrorism and extremism, and the independence of the region, its ability to protect the borders, communication with each other and with the emerging economies of Asia, promotes the stability the most. Withdrawal from Afghanistan does not mean reducing the importance and value of Central Asia to the US, interested in promoting their own interests and sustainable partnerships with the countries of the region.
The US intends to invest in the further development of the region, its political and economic stability in order to strengthen partnerships to ensure mutual security, establish closer economic relations and improve the management system and the human rights situation6.
The US will cooperate with Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries to maintain influence in the region, even if the situation in Afghanistan remains as acute as ever. The US will cooperate to prevent the activity of extremist groups in the region, using this as an excuse for the organization of modernization and supply of military units7.
There is an opinion that Uzbekistan is the only potential candidate for the role of a springboard for the U.S. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Union, Kyrgyzstan is on the way there. Turkmenistan is not going to turn into someone bridgehead -Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov quietly engaged in the export of gas (including China), and does not intend to play in geopolitics. Tajikistan is highly dependent on Moscow (despite all the anti-Russian actions of Emomali Rakhmon), and tries to establish a strategic relationship with Iran.8
Uzbekistan always has a special place in the US foreign policy planning. First, the U.S. take into account its geographical location -the republic is bordered with all countries of the region. Second, Tashkent's attempts to distance itself from Russia have created a fertile ground for such plans. Apparently, Washington continues to believe, that the United States prevent the restoration of Russian influence in Central Asia, involving the republic in their orbit.
The US have the intention to gain a foothold in Uzbekistan, sending numerous missions to the country. About 60 U.S. government delegations visited Uzbekistan in 2014. The delegation from Washington, which included representatives from the State Department, Defense Department and intelligence agencies arrived to Tashkent in April this year. The purpose of the visit (according to official reports), was to reassure the governments of Central Asia that Washington would not weaken attention to this region.
Washington tries to involve Central Asian states for solving problems of the U.S. in Afghanistan. Issues related to Afghanistan were the focus of talks of the U.S. delegation, including the formation of a government of national unity, the security situation, the new NATO mission in Afghanistan, which provides assistance to Afghan security forces (no combat operations).
The American side called on the leaders of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to expand economic cooperation with Afghanistan, to promote the development of education, assistance in the creation of infrastructure and energy supply. The representatives of CA countries expressed their concern about the overall situation in Afghanistan. I. Karimov suggested that the U.S. should not rush to withdraw their troops from the country (now the American military presence there counts 10 thousand people)9.
I. Karimov takes into account the strengthening of the contradictions between Russia and the United States with their European satellites, trying to maintain a balance in relations with both parties. Uzbekistan seeks to develop military-technical partnership through bilateral relations with Russia, buying military equipment and weapons of Russian production for its armed forces.
During the election campaign, Islam Karimov announced prevention of accession to any military blocs, the deployment of foreign military bases on the territory of Uzbekistan, and Uzbek troops outside the country to be the most important point.10 Particular emphasis was placed on the strengthening of friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries, but above all - with the neighbors.
Security cooperation between Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation comes under the SCO. The SCO Regional Antiterrorist Structure is based in Tashkent. Meeting of the special services representatives of the Member States was held in early April of this year. The agenda included discussion of the cooperation program of the SCO member states to counter terrorism, separatism and extremism for 2016-2018 years. The question of the suppression of attempts by terrorist organizations use the Internet resources has taken a special place.11
Trade and economic cooperation is of great importance for the development of relations between the two countries, in addition to security problems. Russia ranks first among the trade partners of Uzbekistan (Russia's share is about 27% of the total foreign trade of the Republic). The trade turnover amounted to $ 4.5 billion in the first nine months of 2014. The sanctions have opened for Uzbek farmers more opportunities to sell their products in the Russian market.
Uzbekistan is the largest country in terms of population of Central Asia, rich in natural resources and military potential. The results of the official visit of Vladimir Putin to the Republic in December 2014 show the interest of Moscow in the development of relations with Uzbekistan. A number of important agreements has been signed, Russia has written off the debt of Uzbekistan in the amount of $ 865 million (Tashkent will repay only $ 25 million).12
Among the documents were signed: the Agreement "On the main directions of development and deepening of economic cooperation for 2015-2019 years", providing for the expansion of bilateral relations in industry, agriculture, finance and banking sectors, as well as cargo and transport; Program of Cooperation between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, and Russia in 2015; Protocol between the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Uzbekistan and the Federal Drug Control Service of Russia on the exchange of research results of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances confiscated from illegal turnover. The decision was announced to hold consultations on the free trade zone between Uzbekistan and the Eurasian Union. I. Karimov noted the stabilizing role of Russia in Central Asia, in the course of negotiations.13
The problem of migrant workers is very important for Uzbekistan. As you know, the lack of jobs at home is forcing thousands of able-bodied citizens of Uzbekistan to seek work in other countries, especially in Russia. Despite the sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate, around 2.5 million. Uzbek migrants work in Russia even now. Their earnings are transferred to the republic, it is an important tool of its economy.
It is unlikely that Islam Karimov supported by both Washington and Moscow at the moment, will change his foreign policy and give priority to one or the other side. However, the further development of
global competition leads to a narrowing of the possibilities of multi-vector foreign policy for countries such as Uzbekistan.
Notes
1 http://expert.ru/2015/01/8/ shtatam-v-uzbekistane-ne-mesto/
2 http://ria.ru/world/20150413/1058213006.html
3 http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1907096.html
4 http://www.regnum.ru/news/ 1918709.html
5 http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1908183.html
6 http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1911471 .html
7 http ://www. warandpeace.ru/ru/news/view/87279/
8 http://expert.ru/2015/01/8/shtatam-v-uzbekistane-ne-mesto/
9 http ://rpg15.wordpress.com/2015/04/23/1417/#more-2466
10 http ://www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st= 1426828680
11 http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1913943.html
12 http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/2630086
13 http://www.odnako.org/blogs/
"Rossiya i novye gosudarstvaEvrazii", IMEMORAS, Moscow, 2015, № 2, pp. 101-107.
A. Niazi,
Ph. D. (Hist), IOS RAS, Deputy editor of the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World" ISLAMIC BANKS CAN WORK IN RUSSIA
A number of Russian financial institutions began to show interest in Islamic banking in the early years of zero, but overall the domestic banking system was indifferent to it in those years. Islamic banking was not considered even as a competitor, which could oust usurious and speculative capital. In addition, there were many concerns that Islamic finance can be used to fuel terrorism and religious extremism.
