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11FUNDAMENTALS OF NOVEL IAHE CONCEPTION OF HYDROGEN CIVILIZATION OF THE FUTURE*
Dedicated to the memory of Valery Alexeevich Legasov and Anatoly Nikolaevich Podgorny
V. A. Goltsov12, T. N. Veziroglu13, L. F. Goltsova12
1 International Association for Hydrogen Energy |
P.O. Box 248266, Coral Gables, FL 33124-0622, USA ^
E-mail: [email protected] f
2 Donetsk National Technical University ^
58, Artyom Street, 83000 Donetsk, Ukraine §
Tel.: 38 062 3050235; Fax: 38 062 3041278; E-mail: [email protected] e
3 UNIDO-ICHET
Sabri Ulker Sk. 38/4, Cevizlibag, Zeytinburnu, 34015 Istanbul, Turkey E-mail: [email protected]
Member of Board of Directors of International Association for Hydrogen Energy (IAHE), a member of Honorary Editorial Board of the "International Journal of Hydrogen Energy" (IJHE), Chairman of Physics Department and Head of the Donetsk State Hydrogen Laboratory of the Donetsk National Technical University.
Over period of several decades he has been elaborating hydrogen-materials problem and general questions of Hydrogen Energy (http:// donntu.edu.ua/hydrogen).
Being a Chairman of triennial IAHE special international conference "Hydrogen Economy and Hydrogen Treatment of Materials" Professor V. A. Goltsov represents IAHE and IJHE long-term goal and activity in East Europe and North Asia - CIS-countries.
Professor Victor A. Goltsov
Leading Scientist of the Donetsk State Hydrogen Laboratory of the Donetsk National Technical University, a member of International Association for Hydrogen Energy, Associate Editor of an informative-scientific, analytical and scientific-technical journal "Bulletin of Hydrogen Economy and Ecology".
She is a specialist in the field of informetric analysis of the world progression of Hydrogen Energy and Hydrogen Economy, and of the development of the World hydrogen movement.
She had been the first scientific analyst worked out and published in IJHE (1990) informational structure of Hydrogen Energy as a novel large-scale scientific problem.
Dr., Eng. Lyudmila F. Goltsova
Professor Turhan Nejat Veziroglu
Founder and President of International Association for Hydrogen Energy, Director of UNIDO-International Center for Hydrogen Energy Technologies (http://www.unido-ichet.org), Editor-in-Chief of the "International Journal of Hydrogen Energy", founder and Honorary Chairman of biennial IAHE World Hydrogen Conferences, a key-leader of the World hydrogen movement.
Being a world-renown scientist in the field of Hydrogen Energy and environmental problems he has been and invited lecturer and/or consultant on energy research and education to many universities and research organizations all over the world.
* Доклад на Первом всемирном конгрессе «Альтернативная энергетика и экология» WCAEE-2006, 21-25 августа 2006 г., Волга, Россия.
* Paper at the First International Congress "Alternative energy and ecology" WCAEE-2006, 21-25 August 2006, Volga, Russia.
It is generalized a novel Hydrogen Civilization (HyCi-) conception of the International Association for Hydrogen Energy. The HyCi-Conception states that at this rigorous, severe historical period the humankind still has a real possibility to save the biosphere and makes living out of humanity be possible and real process. The above objective can be achieved by the only way, the way of advantageous all-planetary work along the direction of ecologically clean vector "Hydrogen energy^Hydrogen economy^Hydrogen civilization". The HyCi-Conception includes three constituent, mutually conditioned parts: industrially-ecological, humanitarian-cultural and geopolitical-internationally legislative ones. For the first time, legislative-economical mechanism of transition to hydrogen civilization is formulated, and the most important possible stages of HyCi-transition are indicated and discussed. A special attention is paid to the future noospheric role of the world scientific-cultural community, to the fundamental importance of purposeful forming "hydrogen-ecological" mass consciousness, to the role and responsibility of international and regional legal and political organizations, national parliaments and governments. The HyCi-Conception has marked reasons and inevitability of generating global and local geopolitical contradictions in the period of the world transition to Hydrogen Economy and then to Hydrogen Civilization. The HyCi-Conception envisages these dangers and has an aim to make provision for the humankind understanding of necessity to solve them just by moving on the international legislative road under the leading role of the UN. In compliance with IAHE HyCi-Conception, the ecologically load-carrying regions, like California in the U.S.A., Ruhr in Germany, Donbass in Ukraine, Moscow, Ural and Kuznetsk regions in Russia, Shenyan region in China, will have to play a leading role in the humankind transition to the hydrogen civilization era.
Introduction
The human civilization development and historical alternating epochs are usually classified by a leading method (material) of manufacture, determining the achieved level of society development and of technical culture of the humankind (Copper Age, Iron Age, etc.). During the last centuries civilization development generally was determined (and is determined) by the energy carrier used by the humankind. Change of energy carrier is painful and always long historical period. Transition from the firewood to coal lasted about two centuries. From the middle of XX century the natural gas occupied its power niche and continues to gain favour over new positions in industry nowadays.
In the XX century the economics founded on the fossil fuels (first of all, on the oil and natural gas) was completely formatted. Technical advantages of this economics are widely known and irrefutable. Nevertheless, simultaneously with permanent achievements, the economics of oil and gas gradually and inevitably leads the humankind to worldwide ecological catastrophe (greenhouse effect and climate deterioration, ozone holes, acid-rains, etc.), and to the global geopolitical shocks, because of the limited oil stores and non-adequate perception of the world ecological catastrophe jeopardy.
In the first half of 1970s thanks to the enthusiasm of conscientious representatives of world scientific community [1-10] (now they are called as "hydrogen romantics"), the fantastic idea of great French writer Joule Verne was revived. This idea was firstly written in J. Verne's "A Mysterious Island" in the 1875. It consists in the opportunity for future humankind to heat itself with water, dissociating it on the hydrogen and oxygen and then firing hydrogen. Indeed, as it is well known the hydrogen firing does not pollute atmosphere. One can find review of hydrogen energy romantic time in [11-14].
In 1974 the International Association for Hydrogen Energy (IAHE) was established [11, 12] with its headquarters in the Clean Energy Research Institute of Miami University (U.S.A.). IAHE began publishing "International Journal of Hydrogen Energy" (IJHE) [15], and started organizing the biennial World Hydrogen Energy Conferences (WHEC) [16,17] to provide a platform for forming Hydrogen Energy community [16, 17].
At the same years in the USSR, owing to active position of Valery Alexeevich Legasov (Fig. 1) [18], Anatoly Nickolaevich Podgorny (Fig. 2) [19] and their scientific adherents (see in [20]), Hydrogen Energy started to be of a very intensive elaboration. A more wide energy-technological version of Hydrogen Energy conception, namely "Nuclear Hydrogen Energy and Technology" was steadily worked out by the Institute of Atomic Energy named by I. V. Kur-chatov and some other scientific and technological organizations (V. A. Legasov — the key leader).
Application of hydrogen as a fuel for car engines and using hydrides for its storage — these important directions of Hydrogen Energy were worked out by the Institute of Mechanical and Engineering Problems (A. N. Podgorny — the key
Fig. 1. Valery Alexeevich Fig. 2. Anatoly Nikolaevich Legasov (1936-1988) Podgorny (1932-1996)
leader). Hydrogen as a fuel in aviation and all other aspects of Hydrogen Energy came into the view of the conceiving hydrogen community of the U.S.S.R. In 1975 at the All-Union Scientific and Technological Seminar "Gases and Metals" (Donetsk, Ukraine, 1975, Chairman V. A. Goltsov) Hydrogen Energy was thoroughly discussed, and for the first time, there was pointed out: "Hydrogen-Materials Problem and Materials Safety make an integral part of Hydrogen Energy conception". Then, there were to be routinely organized AllUnion conferences and seminars (Moscow, Donetsk), All-Union schools for young scientists (Donetsk, Ionava, Tula, etc.), and every such action assembled 250-500 participants (scientists, engineers, and industrial managers). Every year collections of analytical reviews and scientific-technological works [21], edited by V. A. Legasov, came to be published (every book consisted of 250-300 pages). As a result, there was an official acceptance of the conception and the USSR joined the IAHE.
By the decision of the USSR State Committee on Science and Technology in 1977 on the base of Donetsk Polytechnic Institute (nowadays Donetsk National Technical University) there was established the Donetsk State Hydrogen Laboratory for steadily developing of the hydrogen-materials problem [22-27] and scientometric analysis of the world Hydrogen Energy development [27-31]. In accordance with the agreement between T. N. Veziroglu and V. A. Legasov the Donetsk State Hydrogen Laboratory and the Institute of Atomic Energy named by I. V. Kurchatov had been preparing for IJHE annual reports about the "hydrogen" works published in the Soviet Union [32]. There was established the partnership for permanent sciento-metric investigation and revealing tendencies of the development of Hydrogen Energy [30, 31] and the world hydrogen movement [33].
The last quarter of the XX century: from Hydrogen Energy to Hydrogen Economy, origination of the IAHE Hydrogen Civilization Conception
The late 1970s and 1980s are the years of a very rapid Hydrogen Energy progress. It is impossible to mark all the important works of that period (see in [15, 21], and we cite only some references [34-42] which had made, by our opinion, a noticeable effect on the generating hydrogen movement.
Scientometric studies of the world Hydrogen Energy development during 1977-1988 had been generalized in [30]. A file of 10,573 units had been analyzed [30]. It was found that investigation on Hydrogen Energy had been carried out in 39 countries and information had been published in 21 languages. Therewith publications in English, Russian, Japanese, German and French amounted to ~98 % of the total. The core group of journals included two international journals, namely "International Journal of Hydrogen Energy" and "Journal of the Less-Common Metals" (nowadays "Journal of Alloys and Compounds"),
and Soviet journal "Voprosy Atomnoi Nauki i Tekhniki. Ser. Atomno-Vodorodnaya Energetika i Tekhnologiya" that carried about 30 % of the total publications on the problem.
The world Hydrogen Energy development during 1977-1987 is presented in Figure 3. One can see a very rapid progress for this period: the world total volume of publications (curve 1), the volume of periodicals (curve 2), patent documents (curve 3) and conference reports (curve 4). The growth of the world hydrogen community was reflected in 250 symposia on Hydrogen Energy and related problems held during these years [30].
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 Years
Fig. 3. Database on Hydrogen Energy and Technology [30]: 1 — the total number of publications; 2 — periodicals; 3 — patent documents; 4 — conference report
In the work [30] an informetric analysis had been carried out and scientific-information structure of Hydrogen Energy had been systematically studied and substantiated. It had 211 rubrics including 9 rubrics of the first level, 40 rubrics of the second level, 66 rubrics of the third level, 85 rubrics of the fourth level, 9 rubrics of the fifth level and 2 rubrics of the sixth level (see Appendix of [30]). This classification served as the basis to draw the subject boundaries and was the basis for the information-retrieval system on Hydrogen Energy scientific problem.
It is important to keep in mind that term "hydrogen energy" contains information about two aspects of the problem. On one hand, a new rapidly advancing trend in science and engineering determined as "Hydrogen Energy" had been sculptured in 1970-1980s as a largescale unified scientific-technological problem having its own subject matter, structure, aim and tasks [30]. On the other hand "Hydrogen Energy" had been already gone to serve as a new large-scale conception pointing a new environment friendly vector for the industrial development [12,41].
In short Hydrogen Energy structure comprises (1) hydrogen production from water using non-renewable energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil, atomic energy and in the far future thermonuclear energy) and renewable energy sources (sun, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and others), (2) hydrogen delivery transportation and storage, (3) hydrogen utilization in industry, transport (land, water and air) and home, (4) problems of materials and safety. There was generated the world hydrogen movement that grew very quickly (see [11-14, 30] and references in them). That was how mattes stood in the late 1980s of the XX century.
Since the world economy runs on energy, the term "hydrogen economy" [1-3] has received a wider usage in the last decade of the XX century. Then, as a result of started commercialization [1114] of hydrogen technique and technology the conception of Hydrogen Energy started to be transforming and the conception of Hydrogen Economy started to be put to wide application.
By and large, the results of the Hydrogen Energy and Hydrogen Economy development within the last quarter of the XX century are summed up in [11-14]. The results are impressive. Some countries had adopted national programs and/or initiated large hydrogen projects (e.g. Japan, Germany, USA and some others). Some companies had already begun to commercialize hydrogen technologies, hydrogen know-how and hydrogen energy systems, e.g., automobiles running on hydrogen fuel, fuel cells, improved electrolyzers, hydrogen-nickel batteries, and so on. A stable hydrogen scientific community had been formed. They had begun to study the prospects of developing separate aspects of the Hydrogen Economy up to 2020, 2050, and even up to 2100 [43-47]. The research being carried out covered either a region and/or certain technical aspects of the Hydrogen Economy. For example, there were studies, which were pertinent to the USA, Brazil, Spain, Egypt, Iceland, etc. [4347]. They were studying prognostic problems of the hydrogen energy system requirements for the future, electrical energy required for hydrogen production, and other similar questions. From an engineer's viewpoint, such an approach is fully justified; this makes it possible to forecast and later on solve the important technical and economical problems of the Hydrogen Economy.
At the end of the XX century for the specialists it became absolutely clear, that an epoch-making replacing the general energy carrier would take place in the XXI century. Fossil fuels will be step by step substituted by a new environmentally friendly energy carrier — hydrogen. Simultaneously the humankind life will be necessarily subjected to the fundamental transformations: to industrial and to spiritual ones. Thinking on the basis of Ver-nadsky's doctrine [48-51] about this planetary process has been activating the origination of a novel largescale IAHE conception of Hydrogen Civilization of the future [52, 53] (furthermore the Hy-Ci-Conception). For the first time ever there
was being considered [52, 53] the main aspects of a move by humankind into the era of an ecologically clean Hydrogen Civilization. Some biospheric and noospheric consequences of this transition had been analyzed and the tasks of the world hydrogen movement had been discussed [52, 53].
The first years of the XXI century: Hydrogen Economy progression and IAHE HyCi-Conception development
During last years Hydrogen Economy has been gathering force in all possible directions: fuel cells, hydrogen cars and hydrogen refueling stations, Me-H-battaries, improved electrolizers, other hydrogen technologies and Hydrogen Energy systems. This has descriptively been demonstrated with a rapid growth of the amount of worldwide hydrogen refueling stations. Really, in 2003 there were about 40 hydrogen refueling stations in the world, but 220 ones were already operating in 2005. One can find full information in Internet, in the public press, in scientific journals, in proceedings of international hydrogen conferences (see, for example, in [54-56] and references in them).
A very important point is that in many countries Hydrogen Economy problem is brought up to a governmental and inter-governmental levels. Japanese government is planning to increase fuel cells production by high speed [57]:
Year Technology 2010 2020 2030
Cars with fuel cells 50,000 5,000,000 15,000,000
Stationary energy systems with fuel cells 2,200 MW 10,000 MW 12,500 MW
The U.S.A. and Europe have their own ambition plans of Hydrogen Economy support [58, 59]. In 2003 in Washington 17 countries established "International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy" to accelerate the transition to Hydrogen Economy. By creating the IPHE, the Partners have committed to accelerate the development of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, to improve their energy security, environmental security and economic security.
Hydrogen Economy advancement has provided the necessary practical background to the further development of a novel large-scale IAHE HyCi-Conception [52, 53] aimed at promoting a better understanding of a distant historical future of the humankind.
Now let us note some milestones of the development of the HyCi-Conception. In 2001 the first wide international discussion on the HyCi-Concep-tion presented by V. A. Goltsov and T. N. Veziroglu [60], had taken place during the Third International Conference "HTM-2001" (Donetsk, Ukraine, May 14-18, 2001). Scientists and industrialists from Russia, USA, UK, Ukraine, Japan, France, Poland and other countries discussed HyCi-Con-ception and accepted "Memorandum on the Transition from Fossil System to Hydrogen Economy
and then to Hydrogen Civilization". Memorandum was published in a special Issue of IJHE [61]. It called "all the members of the hydrogen energy and ecological movements, everybody who cares for the ecological well-being of the humankind, preservation of the Earth's biosphere and ecosystem, to consolidate the efforts and to contribute to the approaching of the era of hydrogen civilization, the only ecologically clean and worthy civilization of the future" [61].
The HyCi-Conception view on the humankind future on a global scale was published in IJHE in 2001 [62]. Further development of the HyCi-Con-ception was realized in [63-75].
On June 12, 2002 at the meeting of Board of Directors of IAHE held in Montreal (WHEC-14) there was recommended to present a novel IAHE HyCi-Conception to the world hydrogen movement at the 15th Hydrogen Energy Conference in Yokohama. This decision was fulfilled [70, 71] in the year of IAHE 30th anniversary during 15th World Conference on Hydrogen Energy (Yokohama, Japan, June 27-Jule 2, 2004) [17]. The Conception was presented at Plenary Session [70, 71] to the audience of 2000 delegates from fifty-two countries [17]. Then, HyCi-Conception was widely presented to the scientific community at some other international meetings [72-74].
Hydrogen Civilization conception consists of three interdependent and interrelated component parts: industrially-ecological, humanitarian-cultural and geopolitical-internationally legislative ones.
The industrially-ecological part of the HyCi-Conception entertains nowadays tendency for Hydrogen Economy progress and elaborates historical scientific seeing on interrelated development of the world ecological situation and hydrogen industry in all-planetary aspect. Being based on the Vernadsky's studies about the biosphere the HyCi-Conception leans in its analysis upon synergetics, a modern science about development of complicated, uncovered, self-organizing systems, an example of which the biosphere is.
The humanitarian-cultural part of the HyCi-Conception issues from the Vernadsky's studies about noosphere and his cultural-philosophical heritage. In its development this part of the HyCi-Conception is guided by the humanities: modern philosophy, culturology and others. In particular the HyCi-Conception comprehends and exposes the question about correlation and interrelation between theory of hydrogen civilization transition and universe synergetic conception [76]. Historical task of the HyCi-Conception in its humanitarian-cultural aspect consists in formation of mass hydrogen-ecological and noospheric consciousness of some peoples, and then of all the humankind. This mass consciousness will afford an opportunity to accept a new paradigm of life quality and will serve as a humanitarian-cultural basis for introducing into the humankind life a legislative-economical mechanism of transition to the era of hydrogen civilization.
The geopolitical-internationally legislative part of the HyCi-Conception states rightfulness and inevitability of generating global and local geopolitical and geoeconomical contradictions in the world community during the historical period of transition to the Hydrogen Civilization era. The HyCi-Conception justifies a necessity of its solving in frames of legislative field elaborating by the world and regional international organizations, first of all under the aegis of UN and its structural organizations (UNIDO, UNESCO, etc.).
The all-planetary aspect of the Conception
1. Vernadsky's biosphere and noosphere doctrine — a groundwork of HyCi-Conception.
On a planetary scale the HyCi-Conception is based on Vernadsky's studies about the biosphere and the noosphere [48-51]. The biosphere, in accordance with Vernadsky's doctrine, is an "...organized, specific crust envelope of the Earth associated (mated) with life". So, the biosphere is bouded first and foremost by the region where life exists, and the living matter and human first of all is a driving force of biosphere evolution in geological and historical scales of time. A very important point is that the biosphere is permanently in the state of energy and matter exchange with outer space, with the rest central part of the Earth planet and with its upper atmosphere.
The noosphere, by Vernadsky [49-51], is a special stage of the biosphere development when a dominant driving force of its self-development is science, with a human intellectual activity as a general planetary phenomenon.
Now let us look at the Earth as a heavenly body exchanges energy and matter with the outer space. The matter reaches Earth as meteorites, space dust, microparticles, elementary particles of solar and space wind, etc. The Earth derives energy first of all in the form of solar radiation. As a comprehensive consideration, one should also consider the energy derived from other space objects in the form of electromagnetic radiation, micro-particles energy, etc. Solar radiation certainly is the foremost factor for the existence and functioning of the biosphere. In what follows, we shall consider just this energy source.
The entire solar energy the Earth derives can be divided roughly into some parts. One part is the Earth's thermal radiation. Basically, this is long-wave electromagnetic radiation. It passes partially through the Earth's atmospheric shell and proceeds into outer space. A certain part of this Earth-based radiation is blocked by the atmospheric shell, speaking figuratively, as by an atmospheric "blanket". The Earth-space energy exchange results in some steady state, and our planet is warm (in comparison with the space temperature mode) and supports the life forms on it. The other part of the solar radiation the Earth derives is converted by the biosphere (mostly, through the work of plant life) into storable forms of chemical energy.
On the scientific level of his time and even ahead of it Vernadsky has elaborated in details all
aspects of the biosphere functioning during geological and historical periods of times. He had particularly identified and analyzed in every details cycles of chemical elements - components of alive substance (living matter). Vernadsky had shown that these cycles saying with modern scientific language are self-sustainable stationary ones. Thermodynamically they are not closed and, for example, over the course of geological times, a part of the matter and energy leaves them, being stored in the crust and forming such deposits like coal, oil, etc.
In the context of HyCi-Conception a carbon cycle is of especial interest. In this cycle a carbon dioxide(!) being a general reason of greenhouse effect plays a great role. It is emitted into the Earth's atmosphere through the industrial and vital activity of the human, through the vital activity of animal life, and absorbed and processed by the plant life (with the release of oxygen into the atmosphere). It is involved in the formation of minerals on land and in the aquatic environment, etc.
Vernadsky perceived both the geological wastes of human activity and the impredictability of its consequences. He wrote [51]: "We observe a more and more dramatic influence of a human intellection and collective mind on geochemical processes"; "Of special interest and a characteristic fact in the history of carbon is the fact that carbon dioxide quantity increases during the civilization progress"; "In this way a civilized person disrupts an established earth equilibrium". He exclaimed: "Where will this new geological process stop? And will it stop or not?" Rather emotionally Vernadsky emphasized: "Here human beings behave not like Homo sapience but like Homo sapience fabef.
Slightly more than six decades since the great thinker's death we see that answers on his questions are negative. Really, the population of the Earth [77] has continued to grow more and more fast than at Vernadsky's times. That is clearly demonstrated by the Fig. 4a. And at the same time a dramatic growth of the humankind energy consumption has taken place (Fig. 4b). So, during five thousand years the Earth population has grown in 144 times and the humankind energy consumption has grown in 2650 times. One can feel this difference of fundamental importance. With a sad irony it has been said [52, 53] that during last decades human has been acting not like "Homo sapiens faber", but like "Homo desipiens faber" (working person without mind). Really, we live already in the Era of "Homo desipiens fabef (Fig. 4b)!
2. Irreversible catastrophe or Hydrogen Civilization?
In the light of the written above, the key question arises: is the world ecological catastrophe possible or not? And, if it is possible, then what alternative time for the catastrophe prevention do the humankind have? Another important question is connected with the previous ones: by whatever laws will the future biosphere development (in case of realizing or not realizing these or those ways to hydrogen civilization) to be carry out? In this
Fig. 4. Growth of the Earth population: a — and the humankind energy consumption; b — during five thousand years
feature the HyCi-Conception starts from a new interdisciplinary science "Synergetics" [78-81] and from rapidly progressing now synergetic view on the historical development of the humankind [82].
Synergetics describes the behavior of highly nonequilibrium-dissipated systems (physical, chemical, technical, biological, economical, sociological, etc). These systems consist of multitude subsystems and are in permanent exchange of energy and matter with the outward world. At changing of some conditions (operational parameters) a regular evolution and selforganization processes are possible in these systems.
A characteristic property of synergetic systems is that in their way of development there may exist the so-called bifurcation points (periods), wherein the possible system development routes may fork out. An important moment here is that at such a point the system is in an unstable state and small random disturbances can lead to global impacts: the system could irreversibly progress in the direction of one of earlier possible routes which can be absolutely and fundamentally different from other probable variants of development.
The biosphere is a synergetic, to a highest degree nonequilibrium self-organizing system. As said above, it exchanges energy and matter with the outer space, with the rest central part of the Earth planet and with its upper atmosphere. In geological scale of time the biosphere has saved a stationary state and has simultaneously evolved at the same time.
On its way of development the biosphere had come through the bifurcation periods and had undergone different by their mechanism transformations. As an example, let us point at one of the most large-scale bifurcation biosphere transformation, which had taken place in the geological past. About 2 billions years ago a so-called Pre-Sinian catastrophe (see in [82], pp. 27 and 65) occurred. Before this catastrophe there had been existing large-scale "reducing" form of the life and a huge quantity of pro-bacterium had been living on the surface of seas and land. Their vital functions consisted in reduction of iron oxides. The oxygen released into the atmosphere and permanently poisoned the reducing environment. As a result, a dramatic ecocatastrophe had taken place and "reducing" form of the life had been self-wiped out. Then, during the next geological period of time, in result of oxygen content in the atmosphere, the biosphere started to be self-organizing on a new way of evolution: existing till nowadays an oxidative form of the life was spontaneously generated and began its evolution. As it is well known, all alive organisms live due to the atmosphere oxygen consumption and a human are the most important component part of the living matter of the biosphere.
So, from the synergetic viewpoint there is nothing surprising that, according to scientific expectations, the modern biosphere evolution could be terminated by a new much more dramatic catastrophe in result of which an existing now form of the Earth life would be selfwiped out due to super activity of "Homo desipience faber".
A diagram of the modern and possible future biosphere development showing nowadays syner-getic viewpoints and knowledge is given on the Figure 5. It is well visible that during transition from pre-industrial period to industrial one a biosphere loading, caused according to Vernadsky by "Homo sapience faber" activity, grew permanently and heavily. In the postindustrial period this loading came into a super heavily polluted one and, speaking in images, a human became to be "Homo desipience faber" [52, 53]. According to evaluations of some specialists [82] in the present time the biosphere entered a bifurcation period already (or will enter it soon).
According to the IAHE HyCi-Conception the two ways of biosphere evolution are possible in the future (Fig. 5). The first one is the biosphere irreversible entering a track leading to the catastrophe of "Homo desipience faber" empire. The second is a way of the humankind transition from the hydrogen economy to the hydrogen civilization (Fig. 5). This is the situation in the analysis for possible synergetic scenario of the biosphere development in the XXI century.
It is necessary to understand clearly that already the HyCi-Conception raising of the above question is of the greatest importance, and the main noospheric task for the world scientific community consists in scientific, systemic elaboration of synergetic biosphere evolution scenarios within nearest 50-100 years.
The situation is dangerous! Indeed, we need to know how much time the humankind will have before a possible irreversible catastrophe of the biosphere. So, this point must engross the attention, which it deserves, and the following HyCi-conception scenarios of possible biosphere development require urgent consideration and closer examination.
Scenario 1: Consider the biosphere development for conditions when amounts of CO2 and other harmful effluents continue to increase. What will be the impact on biosphere at different rates of effluent increase for different intervals (in 25, 50, 75, 100 and more years)? Such a global scenario should elaborate on the consequences for all biosphere biogeochemical cycles for all interacting biosphere subsystems, and for humankind and its habitat.
The very knowledge of the general laws of synergetics and the possibilities of bifurcation points' existence provide fundamental ideas for investigations of this kind. From the HyCi-concep-tion standpoint, it is absolutely important to establish how much time humankind has before the biosphere and ecosystem enter into an irreversibly catastrophic phase of its development.
Scenario 2: The biosphere development when there are realized global and regional programs of a progressive, at first partial, and then complete replacement of hydrocarbon fuels by hydrogen at different rates of Hydrogen Energy introduction and for different time intervals (viz., 25, 50, 75, 100 and more years). There has been an initial and encouraging study showing how much hydrogen is being turned to proper use for the biosphere conservation, first, and then for transforming biosphere into a new state.
Let us now highlight some a priori visible global peculiarities for the developments under this scenario. As noted above, Hydrogen Economy development is largely based on the expansion of the use of renewable energy sources, namely, solar energy and its derivatives. This means that there will appear a new factor changing the existing conditions of thousands of years of stationary distribution of solar energy, which is immediately "used" by the Earth and given back to the outer
Fig. 5. The diagram of modern and possible future Earth biosphere evolution
space. So, with the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier, a decrease in the emissions of technogenic effluents into the atmosphere, and an increase in direct solar energy utilization will result in the change of the existing conditions on the Earth and the biosphere as global, highly non-equilibrium systems. Humankind must certainly calculate the consequences: if these factors are essential, how many other factors will be essential, and what will be the new stationary dynamic state of the biosphere, and how fast this state will come into being? Undoubtedly, the regional stationary states for all biogeochemical cycles, including the carbon cycle, will also undergo changes. What will these changes be?
It is evident from the above that a movement from Hydrogen Economy to Hydrogen Civilization will not only solve the world's environmental problems, but will also produce changes in the biosphere and its functioning over the historical and geological scales of time.
Achieving more and more high reliability of prognostic estimations of future biosphere evolution, of probability of irreversible universal and/ or local ecological catastrophes is largescale, really noospheric task for the human thinking like a planetary phenomenon.
3. Inevitability of geopolitical contradiction-se — an attendant problem of transition to Hydrogen Civilization
Let us consider now the geopolitical - internationally legislative component part of the IAHE HyCi-Conception. In this regard the Conception bases on the incontestable proposition that historical transformation of such a scale like "humankind transition to the hydrogen civilization era" will permanently pose changes of the world geopolitics situation. So, in the HyCi-Conception there are grounded that at least two large-scale factors would play the role of geopolitics changes driving forces, and these two factors would affect on the all fundament of the humankind existence, on the life of particular states (groups of states).
The first one arises from various states non-adequate perception of the world environmental catastrophe jeopardy. Really, even short-term, "soft" methods of solving these problems contain the principal geopolitical antagonisms. For example, world community efforts to realize the Kyoto agreement (1997) clearly demonstrate this fact. Thanks first of all to Japan, Europe and Russia, the Kyoto agreement came into force. However, such approach turned out to be unacceptable for the most strong world economics of the U.S.A. (pointed already in [62]), for actively growing economics of China and India, which pretend to the future world domination. It is unlikely, that such approach will satisfy poor countries for which the prohibition to enhance the energy consumption is the same as requirement to live in the perpetual poverty.
The HyCi-Conception of IAHE does not reject the Kyoto agreement (something must be done already in nowadays!). At the same time the HyCi-
Conception shows the primary source of its restriction that causes generating geopolitics-scale intergovernmental contradictions. The restriction of Kyoto agreement is conditioned by the complex of reasons [62]: geopolitical, economical, technical, scientific ones, etc., but the main reason undoubtedly is that a very complicated and complex world-wide environmental problem was conceived to be solved by the plain and short-term method of attack, namely, by a simple undertaking of some obligations by the countries in the form of quotas, to reduce harmful emission into the atmosphere.
To put it precisely, any solution to resolve the greenhouse effect and to avert a world environmental disaster by restricting energy consumption, by freezing the economic growth will have no prospects of success. It is pertinent to note that Vernad-sky stressed that any call for a return to a primitive life (such calls, both in a direct and veiled or mild form, were always put forward) is not well-grounded and cannot be realized in practice. Such an idea, speaking figuratively, is a "still-born" idea.
Amplifying we can say (leaning upon Vernad-sky's thought) that "Forward to primitive existence!" slogan is inconvenient to the humankind. Therefore let us repeat: the lines of attack for solving the biospheric problems "a la Kyoto agreement" will always serve as a basis for geopolitical antagonisms.
Now, let us point toward another large-scale factor, namely, the limitation of the world oil and gas resources. Oil and gas are the basis for the modern world economy and will be the most important energy origin during a prolong changeover period of transition to hydrogen economy and to hydrogen civilization. But, nowadays in the beginning of the XXI century the world oil and gas problem becomes an extraordinarily pressing one. For example, the specialists' estimations show that the newly world's proved reserves of the oil do not compensate the human oil consumption growth. This problem provokes already negative geopolitical decisions. By the prognosis the world economy will be faced with a real, considerable deficiency of oil and gas to the ~2030. Therefore, an energy security begins dictating some countries the necessity of the fastest "transition to hydrogen" (the U.S.A. — the "hydrogen security" politics).
So, the transition to the hydrogen economy and then to the hydrogen civilization will be undoubtedly accompanied by permanent global and/ or local geopolitical and geoeconomical contradictions. In particular there will take place changes of the national interests of many countries — "old" and "new" energy resources owners, changes of geoeconomical interests of transnational energy companies. And there might arise polarity reversal in the sphere of geopolotical and geoeconomical attractions and the like.
According to the IAHE HyCi-Conception, the above problems are just around the corner and it needs to think about and to work under legislative (not by force) governing of possible negative tendencies on the road to Hydrogen Civilization.
The stages and mechanisms
of a movement on the historical track: "Hydrogen Energy ^ Hydrogen Economy ^ Hydrogen Civilization"
As indicated above, the noosphere, by Vernad-sky [49-51], is a special stage of the biosphere development when a dominant driving force of its self-development is science, with a human intellectual activity as a general planetary phenomenon. Following Vernadsky's doctrine spirit it is possible to say that transition to the Hydrogen Civilization era will inevitably occur, as a result of a natural biogeologi-cal phenomenon. This transition will be realized by the noosphere self-organization conditioned by the human intellectual activity. A transition of such a scope and significance cannot be realized over a short period. It will be realized by humankind in the historical period of its rational activity.
The IAHE HyCi-Conception formulates the stages and mechanisms of transition to the era of Hydrogen Civilization that will be put into operation in the XXI century. Let us consider these stages, which may take place successively and/or concurrently. And where it is necessary, let us stress their noospheric character.
• The stage of a systemic study of changes of the biosphere, its sub-systems and, in particular, the Earth's ecosystem, which (being induced by the humankind) are as a result of change-over (or not change-over) to a new energy carrier - hydrogen. This stage is noospheric indeed, and an important segment of the world scientific community will take part in it. The germ of such a community is already in existence in the form of the world hydrogen movement and the environmental community of analysts, who are studying the greenhouse effect, its disastrous environmental, economical, political and other impacts. The integration of efforts by these scientific communities is a modern task. Scientific results available at this stage have to provide the humankind with real, highly plausible, accurate, comparative and predictive estimates of biospheric, environmental and other consequences of a wider use of energy carriers in question, i.e. fossil fuels and hydrogen.
• The stage of formation of a new environmental and noospheric consciousness of the general public of all the countries. This new consciousness (intellection) cannot be based, figuratively speaking, on the idea of "moving ahead to the primitive living" by putting vetoes on energy consumption. This new consciousness will be based on scientific and highly reliable predictions about the manner and rates of humankind's change-over to the environmentally clean energy carrier — hydrogen. It is very important that the present world hydrogen scientific community permanently pay great attention to this "unscientific" but absolutely necessary activity, without which a transition to Hydrogen Civilization is impossible. The role of the general public of highly industrialized countries is especially important, because most of the world's science is concentrated in these countries, and at the same time these countries pollute the environment most. It is obvious that humankind has a right to expect, from these countries, the
largest intellectual and financial contribution to the transition to the environmentally friendly hydrogen civilization. The general public in both the countries of transforming economics and in the developing countries has to be involved in this process in full measure. In accordance with the HyCi-Conception just a new mass consciousness will serve as a basis for acceptance and successful functioning legislative-economical mechanism, which will supply the realistic possibility of the transition to the hydrogen civilization era.
• The stage of an official consideration of the prognosis and perspectives of the humankind transition to the era of hydrogen civilization by the international organizations (first of all by the UN and its substructures) and by the regional politics and economics organizations.
On this stage the international legislative standards regulating the procedure to solve appearing geopolitical, geoeconomical, regional political and economical problems will be elaborated and accepted; there will be also accepted the framework laws (recommended to the national parliaments and governments), which would outline scientifically and economically founded ways and mechanisms for the transition to Hydrogen Civilization. The work at this stage may lead to a more effective international cooperation.
• The stage of consideration by the parliaments of the framework laws and recommendations suggested by the international and regional organizations as to the transition to Hydrogen Civilization regarding specific conditions of individual countries. The living standards of each country and its economic state, scientific potential, environment and so on should all be considered. The designing and adoption of laws should follow for the regulation of financing and the establishment of comprehensively organized national enterprises, which would encourage the use of hydrogen, investment of private capital and the establishment of a competitive market for hydrogen energy.
• The stage (historically this will be a prolonged stage) of a scientifically, legislatively and economically ensured transition to Hydrogen Civilization. According to the HyCi-Conception, in the beginning of this long stage the legislative-economical mechanism of transition to Hydrogen Civilization will be elaborated in details and will enter into "the play" like a noospheric rule. Historical necessity and main principles of this mechanism of transition to the era of environmentally friendly Hydrogen Civilization is as follows.
The economics of the XX century was based on the permanent initiation of human needs in "things and services". The consumption of more and more quantity of "things and services" considered and considers to be an equivalent of life high quality.
Progressively increasing production - outrunning consumption (demands), is the XX century central economics dilemma, which still determining the humankind life in nowadays. Correspondingly, to have more "things and services" is the modern paradigm of life quality.
However, during last decades integral indications of real life quality gradually reduce more
and more [82]. To mention just a few: the World Health Organization (WHO) data show that 6 % of all death are the direct result of environmental pollution. This problem, undoubtedly, will be aggravated and, as it was discussed above, a great probability of irreversible ecological catastrophe 5 leading to the heaviest and irreversible consequences <c for the humankind exists. All this means that the I operating paradigm of life quality must be changed g on the other one.
- According to the HyCi-Conception, in the XXI
J century the humankind will assume a new parai digm: a high quality of the life will be associated i (and perceived) as an optimal combination of good, ■Hi ecologically friendly habitat with a rationally sat-^ isfaction of necessary life needs. Established on S3 this paradigm a new mass consciousness will serve
0 as humanitarian-cultural basis for legislative-economical mechanism of transition to Hydrogen Civilization. On these grounds, international organizations will accept and pass for national parliaments the international legislative standards and corresponding framework laws recommending the ecological taxes to be put to use.
Under these conditions some ecologically active countries having suitable humanitarian-cultural and economical conditions will pass national laws regulating the transition to Hydrogen Civilization. These first-ever countries will initially implement light ecological taxes. Then, gradually they will put in force more and more hard ecological taxes for using fossil fuels and polluting technologies. Along with aforesaid hydrogen technologies will be steadily improved on the one hand, and on the other hand, because of the limitation of the world resources, the price of oil and gas will continue to come up. All the above will make the energetic hydrogen production and its more and more wide using in transport, industry, private life etc., to be profitable. According to the HyCi-Conception, this is a matter of legislative-economical mechanism, which will guarantee the success in the humankind motion along the vector "Hydrogen Energy ^ Hydrogen Economy ^ Hydrogen Civilization".
The Conception affirms that being historically prolonged HyCi-transition process will spread in a highly uneven, and fragmental manner in geographical and geopolitical spaces in humani-* tarian-cultural and industrial-ecological spheres, £ in separate branches of engineering and technolo-^ gy, production and so on. This important stately ment of the HyCi-Conception is subject to the future comprehensive elaboration. Let us mark here | just one fundamental point.
It is well known that industrial megalopolises
1 play an extremely important role in the modern § economics. At the same time, every megalopolis is S the most adverse habitat. Being on the way of img agination, it is possible to say that industrial meg-^ alopolises are the ecological black holes of the biosphere. They permanently draw in itself the manpower and material resources of the planet and live in ecological trouble. However, in despite of space black holes, which do not put out even light (photons), the ecological black holes, are characterized with permanent and intensive emission of environmental pollution into the biosphere, as the whole.
According to the IAHE HyCi-Conception, the ecologically load-carrying megalopolises, as, for example, California in the U.S.A., Ruhr in Germany, Donbass in Ukraine, Moscow, Ural and Kuznetsky regions in Russia, Shenyan region in China, will have to play a leading role in the humankind transition to the hydrogen civilization era. Without any doubt just in the megalopolises there will be primarily sculptured needed conditions for the practical realization of legislative-economical mechanism of HyCi-transition to solve, first of all, their own ecological problems. At the same time just megalopolises will provide a good example and experimental field for its own countries and for all the humankind in the efforts focussed on to sustainable development and sustainable future.
Conclusion
The fundamentals of novel International Association for Hydrogen Energy Conception on the future humankind transition to the era of Hydrogen Civilization are grounded already. Obviously, the Conception has a program nature.
The HyCi-Conception states that humankind can preclude the world ecological catastrophe and save the biosphere available for the life by the only way, namely, by movement along the vector: "Hydrogen Energy ^ Hydrogen Economy ^ Hydrogen Civilization". Historically prolonged movement in this direction will lead to the global transformations of all aspects of human existence, human mentality, human society, mode of political and international thought, environment and industry friendly development. Correspondingly, the HyCi-Conception consists in three interconnected and interrelated basic component parts: industrially-ecological, humanitarian-cultural, and geopoliti-cal-internationally legislative ones.
The HyCi-Conception uncovers the legislative-economical mechanism of the transition to Hydrogen Civilization. The HyCi-Conception formulates the stages of transition to the era of Hydrogen Civilization that will be put into operation in the XXI century accenting an attention on the world scientific-cultural community future noosphere role, on the principal importance of purposive forming "hydrogen-ecological" mass consciousness, on the role and responsibility of international and regional legislative and political organizations, national parliaments and governments.
Further HyCi-Conception development and detailed elaboration must be (and will be) a product of joint collective efforts of the world hydrogen movement, first, and, then, there would be needed the noosphere efforts of all the world scientific and cultural community [71, 72].
In summary we shall emphasize that by its matter a novel IAHE HyCi-Conception is an optimistic one serving as a guide for optimistic vision of the humankind future [83, 84]. According to the HyCi-Conception [83, 84] during transition into the era of Hydrogen Civilization a paramount humankind life self-organization will take place with an inevitability of geological process, as in such cases Academician Vladimir Ivanovich Ver-nadsky liked to say with respect to the biosphere and noosphere processes.
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