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11ECONOMICAL ASPECTS
Статья поступила в редакцию 21.06.10. Ред. рег. № 830 The article has entered in publishing office 21.06.10. Ed. reg. No. 830
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ТРАДИЦИОННАЯ И АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНАЯ РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКА ТУРЦИИ
1 2 2 3 4
Г.И. Исаков , Хакан С. Сойхан , Гокан Джошкун , Айфер Везироглу , В.Г. Исакова
1 Институт Физики НАН Азербайджана AZ-1143, Baku, пр. Г.Джавида, 33 E-mail: gudrat.isakov@gmail.com 2 Инженерно-механический факультет университета Сакаря, Эсентепе-Кампус 54187 Сакаря - Турция E-mail: hsoyhan@sakarya.edu.tr 3 Международная ассоциация водородной энергетики Институт чистой энергии Университета Майами Корал Габлес, FL 33124, USA E-mail: vezirioglu@miami.edu 4 Бакинский Государственный Университет AZ 1148, ул. З.Халилова, 23, Баку, Азербайджан 4Институт почвоведения и агрохимии НАН Азербайджана* AZ1073, Баку, ул. М.Арифа, 5
Заключение совета рецензентов: 09.07.10 Заключение совета экспертов: 19.07.10 Принято к публикации: 29.07.10
В этой работе проанализированы возможности создания совместных долгосрочных стратегических региональных энергетических программ между Турцией, Азербайджаном, Грузией, Туркменистаном, Казахстаном, Узбекистаном, Россией и Ираном. Показаны перспективы развития производства электроэнергии в Турции с использованием экологически чистых источников энергии, таких как гидроэнергетика, солнечная энергия, водородная энергетика и другие. С развитием гидроэнергетики анализируются возможности экспорта Турцией электроэнергии в соседние страны в часы пика. Обсуждаются перспективы использования доходов от транзитных тарифов нефтяных и газовых трубопроводов, нефтеперерабатывающих заводов и других хозяйственных предприятий для развития альтернативной энергетики. Рекомендуются принципы политики по привлечению инвестиций для использования альтернативных источников энергии и производства водорода.
Ключевые слова: энергетическая политика, традиционная энергетика, альтернативная энергетика, гидроэнергетика, солнечная энергетика, водородная энергетика.
TRADITIONAL AND ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL ENERGY POLITIC OF TURKEY G.I. Isakov1, Hakan S. Soyhan2, Gokhan Co§kun2, Ayfer Veziroglu3, V.G. Isakova4
'Institute of Physics of National Academy Sciences of Azerbaijan 33 H.Javid av., Baku, AZ-1143, Azerbaijan E-mail: gudrat.isakov@gmail.com 2Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sakarya University, Esentepe Kampus 54187 SAKARYA - TURKEY E-mail: hsoyhan@sakarya.edu.tr 3International Association for Hydrogen Energy Clean Energy Research Institute, University of Miami Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA, e-mail: vezirioglu@miami.edu 4Baku State University 23 Z.Khalilov str, Baku, AZ 1148, Azerbaijan Soil science and agriculture institute of NAS Azerbaijan 5 M.Arif str., Baku, AZ 1073, Azerbaijan
Referred: 09.07.10 Expertise: 19.07.10 Accepted: 29.07.10
In this work the possibility of establishing a co-herent long-term strategic regional energy program between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and Iraq is analyzed. Development perspectives of the production of electric power in Turkey by using clean energy sources such as hydropower, solar energy, hydrogen energy, and others are shown. The possibility of Turkey's export of electric power to neighbor countries in the peak hours, through the development of hydroelectric industry is investigated. Perspectives for the using revenues from transit tariffs oil and gas pipelines, refineries and other economic enterprises for the development of alternative energy industry are discussed. Policy principles to attract investment for the use of alternative energy sources and production of hydrogen are suggested.
Keywords: regional energy, global energy, energy politic, traditional energy, alternative energy, hydropower, solar energy, hydrogen energy.
Introduction
Long-term projections, the creating of strategic plans and program in the field of both energy and economy are vital political and economical foundations for all nations, and the world. All forecasts, strategic and government plans are also important priorities of energy independence of every State. In early twentieth century, energy independent countries estimated the number of their own energy resources but in the second half, the processes of globalization have changed the principles of energy independence. Now energy independence is equally applicable to all countries, regardless of their own energy resources such as oil, gas and coal. In today's world, energy and economic independence of states defines their level of development of science, the ability of their participation and integration into regional and global processes. The world's oil, natural gas and other traditional energy resources are limited. However, modern world economy is built on traditional energy resources which require wasteful use of oil, gas and coal.
Future energy industry will be built on alternative energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, sea wave energy, geothermal energy, water energy, biomass energy. One of the priority of the future energy is the hydrogen energy. All land, air, surface and underwater vehicles may operate on the basis of hydrogen.
Regional and global energy
Since ancient times and today's day, science and commerce had the regional and global significance. A striking example of regional and global nature of science is the creation of ancient science centers and observatories, with the participation of top scientists from all regions and the world. An excellent example of regional and global nature of trade is the Great Silk Road, or the system of the Great Silk Road, covering more regions of China, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, entire Caspian region, the Caucasus, Turkey and Europe.
Since the twentieth century underground oil lakes, rivers of oil, natural gas storage and gas corridors began to run aboveground pipelines, uniting countries and entire regions. Oil, crossing oceans on tankers, electrical transmission lines, which took place on mountains, the valleys and rocks have become the most important factor of regional and global energy and the economy.
This article is the first in a series of articles on regional and global significance of traditional and alternative energy in Turkey and neighbors of Turkey.
Turkey's energy history
Turkey is one of the major oil and gas importers for its own consumption. There are several primary energy sources in Turkey such as pit coal, lignite, asphalts,
crude oil, natural gas, uranium, thorium called fossil energy reserves and also endless energy sources as hydraulic energy, geothermal energy, solar energy, see wave energy, biomass energy. Turkey's fossil sources especially fluid fossil fuel level is not enough compare constantly use in the world. Reserves of coal, geothermal and hydraulic energy potentials are 1% of the world.
Before the Republic of Turkey was founded, energy production and consumption level stayed very low. Within the first years of the republic, energy was used for heating more than industrial needs and the kerosene was used for lighting. In the 1st and 2nd five years development plans prepared for the period of 1933 and 1942 country was targeting an increase in energy production to decrease outer dependency and to save the currency. In these periods, foreign companies producing coal were nationalized. Institute of mining technique (MTA), Etude management of Electric works, Eti mine works (Etibank) and Petrol Ofisi was established. In 1940, the first petrol was found by MTA in Raman.
Liberalism in fifties, interference of substructure gained and hydraulic and thermic centrals were planned to be built. Energy production and consumption increased depending on industrialization and economic growth, in the meantime energy consumption constantly increased at industrial areas. State water works (DSi), Turkey petrol association (TPAO), Atomic Energy foundation and Turkish Coal association (TKi) were established in this period. Hydraulic centrals of Sariyar, Seyhan, Kemer, Goksu and thermic centrals of Tungbilek and Soma were established from 1956 to 1959. Turkey passed to systematic development period in 1963. Hydraulic energy sources and energy efficiency became more important in 1st (1963-67) and 2nd (196872) five years' development plans. Turkish Electric Corporation (TEK) was established in 1970. In 3rd five years development plan (1973-77), duty of getting the necessary electrical energy constantly and effectively is given to the TEK. In this period, another corporation called YSi for general management of roads, water and electrical works is founded and energy and natural sources ministry was established. In 3rd five years development plan, Keban hydraulic central (1974) and Seyitomer (1973), Hopa (1973) and Aliaga (1975) thermic centrals were opened. Besides all these developments in 3rd five years period, energy demand was not recompenseted becuase the primary energy sources such as coal and water wasn't developed enough to cover demand.
At 4th five years development plan, the target for compensating the total energy consumption from product primary energy sources was set to 53%. In this period, the total energy product increment rate gradually decreased while the consumption rate was increasing gradually. At the end of 1977, almost half of the energy demand was compensated from energy produced with national sources.
Production of the primary source of energy was increased from 14 493 Btep to 27 687 Btep between
International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology № 8 (88) 2010
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1970 and 1997. In this period production of lignite increased 6.8 times providing the biggest contribution. Product of lignite was increased to 11 759 Btep in 1997 and covering 42.5% of the total production. The rest of the energy production was obtained from wood 19.9%, petrol 13.1% and hydraulic energy 12.4%. Local product of petrol from 1971 to 1990 was stayed under the level of 1970, however in 1990 product was exceeded 1970's production. Again after 1995 the product of petrol was become to stay under the level of 1970. Natural gas is used in producing energy in 1976; geothermal energy from 1984 and solar power from 1986 were added to local production sources from 1970 to 1997. Because of the differences between energy production and consumption, the percentage of compensating the energy demand was reduced from 76% (1970) to 38% in 1997 [1]. Then the government decided to put more investment on energy production but the contribution of private sector was very low. Still energy production couldn't compensate the demand.
In 1990, natural gas production, which provides 0.7% of total primary energy production, has increased to 2.3% because of natural gas discoveries in Trakya area as Sevindik-1 and Goçerler-1. In year 2000, production of pit coal and lignite were 14.6 Mtep providing 53% of the total production. Petrol and natural gas took second place with 12.9 %. The rest were geothermal and hydraulic energy, and biomass and solar power [2].
Primary energy production and consumption increase rates in each development period from 1963 to 2000 are given in Table 1. As seen in this table, energy consumption rates are always higher than production except for the first development period. This was the main reason for energy crisis.
Таблица 1
Динамика развития, увеличение производства и потребления энергии [3]
Table 1
Development depend on plan periods, increasing of the energy production and consumption [3]
Plan Period GSMH Increase (%) Primary Energy (%)
Production Increase Consumption Increase
1. (1963-1967) 6.6 6.9 5.5
2. (1968-1972) 6.3 1.9 7.4
3. (1973-1977) 5.2 1.9 7.3
4. (1973-1977) 1.7 2.7 3.8
5. (1979-1983) 4.7 4.0 6.5
6. (1985-1989) 3.5 0.9 4.4
7. (1996-2000) 3.5 1.3 4.5
8. (2001-2005) 6.7 1.2 6.1
Energy Consumption of Turkey
Total primary energy sources compensating the Turkey's energy demand was reached 88 million Ton PEE (Tep) in 2004 and 93 million Ton PEE (Tep) in 2005. Energy consumption occurs mainly in primary energy sources such as petrol (18%), coal (27%), natural gas (23%), hydropower (4.5%), renewable (7.5%), and noncommercial sources.
Rapid increase of energy consumption in Turkey is causing the energy sources to be more important. In 1927, the population of Turkey was 13.648.270. Between 1927 and 1970, the population of Turkey increased about three times to 35.605.176. The population is increased about two times from 1970 to 2007 (70.586.256 inhabitants), while energy consumption was increased more than 4 times per person in the same period. Although the energy consumption per person in Turkey is still under the average of the World and EU, the increase in energy consumption per person is considerably high compared to Western countries [3].
Since 1970, energy production pattern in Turkey is changed dramatically. The energy rate produced from wood is reduced from 20.4% to 6%, rate of spoils of plant and animal is decreased 11.3% to 1.6% and rate of petrol usage in energy production is decreased from 43% to 37% while natural gas contribution on energy production was increased from 0 % to 20.6%. The natural gas usage means a rapid increase in imported energy sources rate in total consumption as seen in Fig. 1. While import sources rate were 17% in total consumption in 1970, it is increased to 47% in 1980, 52% in 1990, 68% in 2000 and 73% in 2005.
Рис. 1. Отношение внутреннего производства к общему потреблению энергии в Турции Fig. 1. Ratio of Domestic Energy Production to Total Consumption in Turkey
Thus the rate of the domestic energy sources such as wood, spoils of animal and plant, hydro electric and renewable sources were decreased dramatically which
naturally need to be the dominant ones in total energy production. Since the major sources are imported and the energy production methods are not so efficient gross national product energy consumption reaches nearly 500 kg PEE / thousand euros in Turkey while it is nearly 200 kg PEE / thousand euros in EU. Because of these facts, energy production and consumption efficiency shown in Fig. 2 become one of the most important problems for Turkey's energy policy [4].
Рис. 2. Потребление энергии и ее эффективность в Турции Fig. 2. Energy Consumption and Efficiency of Turkey
Proved reserves of oil and natural gas close neighbors of Turkey
Turkey has more than 1% of the world's reserves stockpile of coal, geothermal, and hydroelectricity. Given that the population of Turkey, too, is more than 1% of the world's population, then on coal, geothermal, and hydro energy reserves Turkey occupies a middle ground. However, developing countries in the world defined by United Nations Human Development Index Turkey took 84 - rank on this index [5]. Oil and natural gas reserves Turkey are negligibly and therefore not included in the statistics BP.
Table 2 and 3 presents the proven reserves of oil and natural gas close to Turkey's neighbours: Iran, Iraq, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The reserves of these countries were selected from statistics BP [6]. In both tables Index Nl-shows the location of the country's proven reserves of oil and natural gas in the world. N2 shows the Human Development Index.
From Table 2 and Table 3 can be understand that only Russia and Kazakhstan on the Human Development Index is leading than Turkey. Iran, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, despite the enormous oil reserves on Human Development Index are lower than Turkey.
Azerbaijan population is 10 times less than Turkey. Proven oil reserves in Azerbaijan is 0.6%, natural gas 0.7% of world capacity. According to Azerbaijan oil reserves in the world, took 20th - about 22nd Natural Gas - rank.
Таблица 2
Доказанные запасы нефти, 2006 г.
Table 2
Proved oil reserves, 2006
Ni n2 Country 1000-106 tonnes 1000-106 barrels Share of total, % R/P Ratio
2 94 Iran 18.9 137.5 11.4 86.7
3 Iraq 15.5 115.0 9.5 *
7 67 Russia 10.9 79.5 6.6 22.3
9 73 Kazakhstan 5,5 39,8 3,3 76,5
20 98 Azerbaijan 1.0 7.0 0.6 29.3
*Indicates that Iraq's proved oil reserves enough for more than 100 years
Таблица 3
Доказанные запасы природного газа, 2006 г.
Table 3
Proved natural gas reserves, 2006
N1 n2 Country 1012 feet 1012 m3 Share of total, % R/P Ratio
1 67 Russian 1682.07 47.65 26.3 77.8
2 94 Iran 992.99 28.13 15.5 *
10 Iraq 111.90 3.17 1.7 *
11 73 Kazakhstan 105.90 3.00 1.7 *
12 109 Turkmenistan 100.96 2.86 1.6 46.0
20 113 Uzbekistan 66.01 1.87 1.0 33.7
22 98 Azerbaijan 47.66 1.35 0.7% *
* Indicates that the proved gas reserves of Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan enough for more than 100 years.
The population of Iraq is 3 times less than Turkey. Iraq possesses 9.7% of the world's oil reserves, 1.7% of natural gas. According proven oil reserves, Iraq is - 3 rd place, and Natural Gas 10 in the world.
The population of Kazakhstan is 3.5 times less than Turkey. However, with 3.3% of the world's oil and natural gas 1.7%, Kazakhstan occupies, respectively 7 and 11 - rank in the world on these hydrocarbon reserves.
According to the proven reserves of natural gas Turkmenistan possesses 1.6% of world reserves of natural gas and takes 12 - rank in the world. According to unproved reserves of Turkmenistan has 3% of world reserves of natural gas. Turkey population is 16 times larger than Turkmenistan.
The population of Russia is 2 times more than Turkey. According to Russia proven oil reserves in the world, took 7 - rank and possesses 6.6% world reserve. According proven natural gas reserves of Russia took 1 -rank in the world and has 26.3% of total world reserves.
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Iran's population is closer to the population of Turkey. According to the proven reserves of oil and natural gas Iran took 2 - rank in the world and possesses 11.4% of the world's oil and natural gas 15.5%.
Regional oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
The largest regional building, unifying Turkey, South Caucasus, and in the future Central Asia, is the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. What may give the pipeline for Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey?
1. The pipeline is a means to exit the Azerbaijani oil in world markets.
2. The flow of oil by pipeline from the territories of Georgia and Turkey provides additional transit revenues to these countries.
3. Additional transit revenues Georgia and Turkey should aim to create additional generating capacity, for the exploration of other energy sources of energy and their effective use.
4. At the current territories should build oil refineries in Georgia and Turkey.
5. Given the length of the pipeline in Georgia and the size of its population, should build one petroleum refinery in average power in Georgia. In Turkey should build 2 large refinery capacities.
6. The construction of oil refineries, both in Georgia and in Turkey marks the creation of numerous jobs.
7. The construction of oil refineries will be important steps to ensure the needs of Georgia and Turkey oil products.
8. The construction of oil refineries will create powerful stimulus to develop new industrial centers, as in Turkey, and Georgia.
9. The creation of new industrial centers will be the basis for attracting investment Georgian and the Turkish state, Georgian and Turkish companies, business people, foreign companies in these centers.
10. The pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, the new oil refineries, new industrial centers, internal and external investment in these centers, will undoubtedly provide energy independence of Georgia and Turkey, the development of their economy, strengthen social protection of their populations.
Regional oil pipeline Aktau- Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
One of future energy projects is a petroleum pipeline under the Caspian Sea bottom that connects Kazakhstan Tengiz oil field in with Azerbaijan oil terminal Dubendi. It is supposed that this pipeline should connect to the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. In the scientific literature and the media referred to as a future pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Because the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is also allows overflow of oil in Kazakhstan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Regional and global significance of the pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan following:
1. Overflow Kazakhstan oil by pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan creates direct access of Kazakhstan oil to the world energy markets.
2. The pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan allows the connection regions: Turkey-Caucasus-Central Asia. Energy association of large regions of the world speeds up the processes of globalization.
3. The pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan increases profits from transit tariffs Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
4. The pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline will ensure the efficiency of the refineries.
5. Oil exports by pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is the best factor for the development of regional economy, regional security, regional cultures, regional scientific ties. The development of regional relations and regional integration processes great ensure perspectives for global integration processes in these regions.
The Iraqi oil, Turkey and USA-Turkish relations
Iraq is located on the south-eastern border of Turkey and is one of the world leaders in proven oil and natural gas. Peace in Iraq, the establishment of a democratic regime in that country, is one of the most important regional priorities of Turkish policy, energy and the economy. For 25-30 years, Iraqi oil and Iraqi natural gas important energy for sources are of Turkey.
Today it is obvious that without U.S.A. assistance and without the direct participation of Turkey will not be able to establish normal state in Iraq, with attributes of free religion, democracy, human rights, etc. Turkey as a democratic country, a member of the Organization of Islamic Conference, is able to resolve ethnic and religious problems in Iraq.
We believe the U.S.A. should promote the establishment of bilateral political, energy, economic and cultural relations between Turkey and Iraq. Only such bilateral relations between Turkey and Iraq can bring peace in Iraq, peace in the region. In this case the energy reserves of Iraq will work on the development of economy and culture throughout the region.
Regional natural gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
Proved reserves of Azerbaijani gas field Shahdeniz are 1 trillion m3. In the near future natural gas field Shahdeniz will be exported to Georgia and Turkey by pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum. Gas pipeline could provide substantial energy needs of Georgia and Turkey.
One of the major exporters of natural gas is Turkmenistan. Export of Turkmen gas in volume 50-60 billion m3 can play an important role to provide the needs of Central Asia, Georgia, Turkey. It should be noted that Turkmenistan is steadily each year could produce 70-80 billion m3 of natural gas. Not proven gas reserves of Turkmenistan is 3 trillion m3. This is a huge figure. Therefore, one of the most topical problems of
energy security of the Caucasus region and Turkey is building a gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan under the Caspian Sea bottom. In the territory of Azerbaijan, this pipeline can be connected by pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum.
For the immediate holding of the gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey necessary to create gas consortium of western energy companies, the urgent conclusion of interstate contracts at the level of Presidents and Ministers of Energy.
It should be noted that Kazakhstan is one of the world leaders in proven oil reserves. Therefore, effective use of associated gas of Kazakhstan can be an important energy event, both for Kazakhstan itself, and for the entire region. The use of associated gas also has benefits for environmental. Proceeding from foregoing we can make up a programme of export of associated Kazakh gas by pipeline Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey. The pipeline can be created by investment States themselves and Investment gas consortium.
Regional natural gas pipeline Russia-Turkey
The territory of Russia is 1/7 of the total land surface of our planet. According proven natural gas reserves of Russia took 1 - rank in the world. Regional Russia-Turkey gas pipeline traverses under the Black Sea bottom. Turkey's used natural gas is mainly imported from Russia. In addition to the benefits of energy gas pipeline Russia-Turkey is of great regional significance such as:
1. Many of the Russian population are civil peoples. Therefore, energy cooperation between Russia and Turkey needed to create and enhance cooperation between Turkey and Russia, as well as civil peoples of Russia.
2. In addition to energy resources Russia occupies a leading position in the world on the territory of its forests. Energy cooperation between Russia and Turkey will lead to the enrichment of timber markets of Turkey, other southern, south-eastern and south-western countries in the world.
3. It is known that Japanese, Chinese companies have large projects to develop Siberia. Therefore, energy
cooperation between Russia and Turkey will open great prospects for cooperation with Turkey, Japan and China.
4. Russia-Turkey pipeline is an energy branch of the Great Silk Road.
Hydroelectric
Hydroelectric potential in Turkey is nearly % 1 of the world potential, % 16 of the European potential. Nearly % 65 of our hydroelectric potential still isn't evaluating. Turkeys' theoretical hydroelectric potential with available water sources is calculated as 433 milliard kWh. Technically retable product potential is approximately 216 milliard kWh. Both the technical and economical retable producing potential is about 130 milliard kWh. Turkey is using only 46 kWh part of the hydroelectric potential by 2005. There are 142 hydroelectric central in total. Turkey has significant hydroelectric power resources especially in the Southeast Anatolia Hydropower and Irrigation (GAP) Project. There are 104 plants with installed capacity over 10.2GWGAP project. GAP includes 21 dams, 19 hydro plants and a network of tunnels and irrigation canals [7]. There are still nearly 400 project waiting to realize which will produce additional 11 milliard kWh. Thus usage rate of technical and economical potential will reach 45% in near future. 75% of the production capacity is produced in Keban, Karakaya, Ataturk, Altinkaya, Hasan Ugurlu and Oymapinar dams.
Large reserves of water and hydroelectricity in Turkey. Norway practice
It should be noted that Turkey's water capacity is 16% of European potential. This is a big figure. Therefore, in this paper also hydroelectricity reserves of Turkey were analyzed. The Table 4 shows the 22 countries in the world with the greatest hydroelectricity reserves. These data were selected from the BP statistical review [7]. The table shows that on hydroelectricity reserve Turkey occupies 12 - rank in the world. Turkey has a 1.4% share of the world hydroelectricity reserve. This is a very good figure.
Потребление гидроэлектроэнергии. Млн тонн нефтяного эквивалента Hydroelectricity Consumption. Million tones oil equivalent
Таблица 4
Table 4
N1 Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Change 2006 over 2005 2006 Share of total
1 China 50,3 62,8 65,2 64,2 80,0 89,9 94,3 5,0% 13,7%
2 Canada 81.1 75.5 79.4 76.4 76.4 81.2 79.3 -2.3% 11.5%
3 Brazil 68.9 60.6 64.7 69.2 72.6 76.4 79.2 3.7% 11.5%
4 USA 63.0 49.6 60.4 63.1 61.4 61.8 65.9 6.7% 9.6%
5 Russian 37.4 39.8 37.2 35.6 40.8 39.6 39.6 0.1% 5.8%
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6 Norway 32.2 27.4 29.4 24.0 24.7 30.9 27.1 -12.3% 3.9%
7 India 17.4 16.3 15.5 15.7 19.0 21.7 25.4 17.0% 3.7%
8 Japan 20.7 20.8 21.1 23.3 23.1 19.8 21.5 8.3% 3.1%
9 Venezuela 14.2 13.7 13.5 13.7 15.9 17.6 18.4 4.6% 2.7%
10 France 16.4 18.0 15.1 14.7 14.7 12.8 13.9 8.4% 2.0%
11 Sweden 17.8 17.9 15.0 12.1 12.7 16.5 14.0 -15.2% 2.0%
12 Turkey 7.0 5.4 7.6 8.0 10.4 9.0 9.9 10.6% 1.4%
13 Italy 11.5 12.2 10.7 10.0 11.3 9.7 9.7 0.2% 1.4%
14 Colombia 6.9 7.1 7.6 8.1 9.0 9.0 9.6 7.4% 1.4%
15 Argentina 6.5 8.4 8.1 7.7 6.9 7.9 9.7 23.0% 1.4%
16 Switzerland 8.7 9.7 8.3 8.3 8.0 7.4 7.4 -0.6% 1.1%
17 Pakistan 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.8 5.5 6.9 7.4 6.6% 1.1%
18 Chile 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.9 6.7 13.9% 1.0%
19 Mexico 7.5 6.4 5.6 4.5 5.7 6.2 6.8 9.8% 1.0%
20 Germany 5.9 6.3 6.4 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.3 2.2% 0.9%
21 Spain 8.3 9.9 6.0 9.9 7.8 4.3 5.7 32.1% 0.8%
22 New Zeal. 5.6 5.1 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.2 5.2 -0.5% 0.8%
In 22 Country Total 495.6 481.9 492.3 490.3 523.1 545.9 619.7 81.8%
Total North America 151.6 131.5 145.4 143.9 143.5 149.2 152.0 1.9% 22.1%
European Union 25 83.5 87.8 74.7 73.4 74.7 70.5 71.4 1.3% 10.4%
S. & Cent. America 124.8 117.3 122.9 127.8 132.6 140.4 147.9 5.3% 21.5%
Tot. Europe&Eurasia 194.5 195.3 183.1 175.8 186.8 186.9 184.6 -1.3% 26.8%
Total Middle East 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.9 20.4% 0.7%
Total Africa 17.6 18.2 19.3 19.3 20.0 19.9 20.2 1.3% 2.9%
Total Asia Pacific 120.2 132.1 134.1 137.7 156.6 166.1 178.6 7.5% 25.9%
Former Soviet Union 52.1 54.2 52.0 51.2 57.0 56.3 56.4 0.2% 8.2%
Total World 610.5 596.3 607.8 607.8 643.3 666.6 688.1 3.2% 100.0%
Note that Norway is the most advanced country in the world for production of hydroelectricity. The official website of Ministry of Petroleum and Energy [8] shows that Norway for the production of hydroelectricity has 6 - rank in the world. By hydroelectricity share per capita Norway has 1 - rank in the world. More than 99% of electric power in Norway is produced from water.
Large hydropower potential of Turkey makes us ponder the use of this potential more effectively and increase the proportion of hydroelectricity to 70-80% of electric power. Such a decision could strengthen the question of Turkey about the independence of electricity for 20 years.
Program reserves increase hydroelectricity in Turkey
One of the main objectives of the Turkish strategic energy programme should be to enhance the share of clean energy-share hydroelectricity. The main opportunity to raise hydroelectricity reserves is the fact that water resources of Turkey constitute 16% of water resources throughout Europe. Large water resources of Turkey, has not yet been investigated. One of the most not studied Turkey's water resources are small mountain rivers. Over the same mountain river can be built several electrical stations. Simple calculations show that water
energy potential of small mountain rivers in Turkey are not used effectively to produce electrical energy. It is therefore an urgent need to develop a program of development of small and micro-electric stations in Turkey. Small and micro-electrical stations allow effective use of water potentials of small rivers. Ecosystems should not be affected. Large important territories for sowing not remain under water. Small and micro-electrical stations encourage the establishment of local industrial enterprises. Social problems of small regions were solved. Construction and operation of power stations does not require big capital.
It should be noted that in Norway energy potential of small rivers is used totally.
Small and micro-electrical station will be built with the help of small water reservoirs. Reservoirs allow irrigation of land. In these reservoirs occur water purification and improved ecosystems.
It is known that in the evening and morning hours demand in electrical energy increases by 25-30%. At that time, having great difficulty providing electrical energy population and industrial facilities electrical stations. Hydroelectric stations have high efficiency and high mobility. Therefore, in the peak hours using of hydroelectric power allow steadily and uninterruptedly providing people industrial facilities and electric energy.
Given the above, Turkey during peak hours, with its potential for hydroelectricity can provide for their needs. Turkey can also provide part needs of Iraq, Georgia, Iran and Azerbaijan, exporting them in peak hours more expensive electricity and importing from them more cheap basic energy for other hours of the day. For secure the implementation of import and export processes, and for a stable work electrical system of individual States, it is important to create reliable regional electricity systems Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan-Russia, Turkey-Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia.
Electricity Production and Consumption
Electric energy demand in Turkey has been increasing dramatically for the last four decades by a rate of 11% per year. Despite of this remarkable increase in electric energy consumption in Turkey, electric energy consumption for per person (2200 kwh/year) is still under EU average (6500 kwh/year) while it is around World average (2500 kwh/year). Although the Turkish government is planning to reduce the growth rate to 8 % gradually for the next 12 years, the electric energy consumption will have reached 240 billion kWh by the year 2010. To compensate this demand, the government is also planning to install 33 lignite, 27 natural gas, 12 coal, two nuclear, and 113 hydroelectric energy plants to fulfill this need [12]. Sources that are using to product of electrical power natural gas become to first place. In 2006, 46.74% of electrical power is produced from natural gas, 26.63% from coal, 22.12% from hydropower and the rests are obtained from other sources as seen in Fig. 3 and Table 5.
Wind 0,10%
Pit Coal 8,58%
Diesel Oil 0,03%
Hydrolic 22,12%
Lignite 18,05%
Fuel Oil 2,98%
Geothermal, LPG, Naphtha and Others 1,40%
Natural Gas 46,74%
Рис. 3. Производство электроэнергии в соответствии с источниками энергии (%, 2006-III) [21] Fig. 3. Brut Electrical Energy Production According to Energy Sources (%, 2006-III) [21]
Таблица 5
Электрические мощности в соответствии с дисперсией источников [21]
Table 5
Electrical Power According to Dispersion of Production Sources [21]
Year Natural gas Coal Hydropower Other Total
199G 1G.192 2G.181 23.148 4.G22 57.543
1995 1б.579 28.G47 35.541 6.G8G 8б.247
2GGG 4б.217 38.18б 3G.879 9.64G 124.922
2GG1 49.549 38.418 24.G1G 1G.748 122.725
2GG2 52.49б 32.149 ЗЗ.б84 11.G71 129.4GG
2GG3 б3.53б 32.253 35.239 9.552 14G.58G
2GG4 б2.242 34.447 46.G84 7.925 15G.698
2GG5 7G.962 43.G65 З9.б58 8.298 1б1.989
Turkey produces 54.7% of electrical energy by from imported fuel. 74.7% of electrical energy is produced in thermal electric stations. It should be noted that importation of fuel to produce electrical energy 54.7% figure is too large. Therefore, finding new energy sources, the creation of new generating capacity based on them is vital priorities of Turkey. Creating a long-term strategic program of energy independence of Turkey is also a priority the Turkish government.
These show that in the modern world energy strategic programs of any State advanced only with regard regional energy, economic, scientific and political relations. The creation of strategic energy programme of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and other countries in the region is possible, with joint participation of scientists and government officials of these countries.
Projection demand on electric energy necessity of Turkey for 2020 is given in Table 6. According to "High Scenario" (8.2% demand increasing at yearly average), electric energy demand will increase to 500 milliard
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kWh in 2020. 96000 MW of this demand will be compensated with the planned power plants. According to low scenario (6.3% demand increasing at yearly average) electric energy demand will increase to 406 milliard kWh and 80000 MW situated power will be required to compensate this demand.
Таблица 6
Прогноз спроса электрической энергии [9]
Table 6
Electric Energy Demand Projection [9]
Turkey may compensate the extra-required energy from of hydroelectric, natural gas and renewable sources. In case of using all hydroelectric capacity, maximum power would reach to 128 milliard kWh. If all of the coal sources would be used it is possible to produce 120 milliard kWh electricity, with all natural gas sources the electric production may reach to 335 milliard kWh. As seen here, none of the scenarios can compensate the electric demand for 2020 [10].
WORLD
Losses in electric power system, including energy network in Turkey, more than 20%. Similar losses are occurring also in the energy systems of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. In EU countries these losses is 8% of electrical energy produced. One of the priorities of Turkey is to reduce the loss of electrical energy in electric networks. In this case Turkey can gain lost 12% of electrical energy.
Fig. 4 presents the dispersion of energy in Turkey and the world, in fuel type. Interestingly, the proportion of energy consumed by coal, natural gas and oil in Turkey is almost identical with their share in world energy balance. However, the share of hydroelectricity in Turkey twice the average world level. Compared with Europe the proportion of energy consumed in Turkey natural gas and oil also equally (Fig. 5).
EUROPE
Renewable
26%
Fig. 5. Energy Dispersion of Europe [12] Рис. 5. Дисперсия энергии в Европе [12]
2005 2010 2020
Demand (milliard kWh) % Increase Demand (miliard kW-h) % Increase Demand (milliard kWh) % Increase
High scenerio 163 8.0 242 8.3 500 6.4
Low scenerio 159 5.5 216 6.3 406 6.8
Existing Energy Politics
Coal 27%
Nuclear 6%
Hydro 6%
Natral Gas 24%
Petrol 37%
TURKEY
Coal 27%
Hydro 12%
. , — Petrol 38%
Natural
Gas
23%
Рис. 4. Сравнение дисперсии энергии между Турцией и миром [11]
Fig. 4. Comparison of Energy Dispersion between Turkey and the World [11]
Energy politics of our country frequently discuss. Among these reasons; Turkey where can not step to development at energy area is leading furthermore energy system of Turkey still isn't stable and settle, energy politics has failings and deficiencies, strategies which is changing according to governments, AR-GE institutes and universities has not integrated and contributor enough degree can be assume.
Energy politics of Turkey from energy and natural sources government (ETKB); "which realized to increase of economical growing, supporting to social development moves and collimation, duly, enough, reliable, obtain with evidence to in economical condition and environmental effects are need to objective for country energy necessity" was determined [13].
According to International Energy Agency for increasing dependence to abroad, primarily right politics, determine to long term energy strategies and these strategies which are based on to scientific calculation, conscious, stable; a method which is guarding to own benefits as economy, environment and abroad politic areas necessity is accenting.
There are some local projects as well going on about sustainable energy, economical productivity and environmental issues in Turkey. New laws developed for adopting EU standards is decreasing government's role in energy quotation. Law of energy efficiency is changed in 2007. For application to energy efficiency law, regulations should urgently come in to application. Inspite of all these achievements, there aren't any changes on practical applications and many deficiencies on practices can be seen [14].
Law of energy efficiency was come in to use in 2007. For application to energy efficiency law secondary regulations urgently should be come in to force in a short time.
Petrol and natural gas passing pipe line projects which developing to energy security and prescriptive Turkey to an energy corridor between west and east are completing. Interior investments are continuing for developed and become widespread to interior natural gas substructure. Additionally investments are doing by private sector for natural gas obtaining and delivering.
Policies to attract investment for the development of alternative sources of energy
It should be noted that in addition to the establishment of strategic state energy program on the use of alternative sources, also must be taken laws, incentives to attract investment. State strategy program must not remain on paper. In each case must be specific performers. All scientific and applied research, specific projects should be funded accordingly. Gains imported traditional energy resources must be directed towards to research on the creation of hydrogen technologies, to develop hydrogen energy and other alternative energy sources. For the development of hydrogen energy as well as various areas of alternative energy offers the following:
1. Revenues from transit tariffs oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey should aim to carry out strategic alternative energy programs.
2. Revenue enterprises of oil refineries and other industrial aimed at the creation and use of alternative energy sources, the use of hydrogen energy should be exempted from taxes within 7 years.
3. Revenue-producing alternative energy enterprises, as well as hydrogen energy should be exempted from taxes within 5 years.
4. To stimulate the creation of alternative sources of energy, as well as hydrogen energy must implement policies with interest-free credit of enterprises and business people.
5. Should be established in Ankara Regional Bank of Alternative Energy, with the participation of Turkey, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
6. To effectively promote scientific research applications in the creation of alternative energy can take
the regional strategic energy program with the participation of Turkey, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
Opportunities for Turkey in the field of Hydrogen Energy
Early in 1973, energy crisis started. Petroleum producing countries in the Middle East stopped exporting oil. The world economy almost came to a standstill. Some factories stopped and / or worked part time. Transportation was adversely affected. There were big lines at gas stations, few cars on the roads, and air traffic was curtailed.
Comparative study [15] of the cost of hydrogen gas and liquid produced by using various sources of primary energy and synthetic fuels. Comparison of different synthetic fuels in terms of their performance to use, their impact on the environment, consumption of natural resources, their transportation costs and investments.
The results paper [16] indicate that the fossil fuel resources in Egypt could be exhausted within one to two decades. They also indicate that adopting the solar-hydrogen energy system would extend the availability of fossil fuel resources, reduce pollution, and establish a permanent energy system for Egypt. They show that Egypt could become an exporter of hydrogen.
The paper [17] show that the hydrogen potential from hydrogen sulphur in Black Sea deep water will play an important role to supply energy demands of the regional countries. Thus, it can be said that hydrogen energy reserve in Black Sea is an important candidate for the future hydrogen energy systems.
As we know hydrogen sulfide is a contaminant environment. At the bottom of the Black Sea, there has been a growing concentration of hydrogen sulphide [18], resulting in significant environmental impacts. Therefore, obtaining hydrogen from H2S from the bottom of the Black Sea and the subsequent utilization of sulphur, has great energy and environmental significance.
In the work [19] develop and evaluate a mathematical model for the process of hydrogen production in Venezuela, via electrolysis and using hydroelectricity, with a view to using it as an energy vector in rural sectors of the country. Regression models were prepared to estimate the fluctuation of the main variables involved in the process: the production of hydrogen, the efficiency of energy conversion, the cost of hydroelectricity and the cost of the electrolyser. Finally, the proposed model was applied to various different time-horizons and populations, obtaining the cost of hydrogen production in each case.
In the paper's [20-23] some biospheric, noospheric and synergetic aspects of the (HyCi)-conception are analyzed. The most important possible stages of the transition to the HyCi have been indicated, including the important role of the world hydrogen movement, general public, international and regional organizations,
International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology № 8 (88) 2010
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parliaments and governments of the world countries. Today, hydrogen is more expensive than oil and natural gas. However, the main source of hydrogen is the endless water. In near future temporary dynamics of oil prices and hydrogen will be cross. The price of oil and hydrogen will be same. In future, hydrogen will become relatively cheaper of all traditional energy sources. The same thing happens with other types of energy derived from alternative sources.
Conclusions
Turkey depends on other countries on energy because Turkey is using petrol and natural gas for energy production and this two energy sources are nearly imported from outside. Whereas many countries in Europe are depended to abroad on account of energy but they have more advantages than Turkey because they are giving importance to renewable energy much more than Turkey. So Turkey must show enough support and relation to renewable and alternative energy.
Energy is the most important strategic subject for our developing country as throughout the world. Important labors are effected in energy sector for legislation and regulation especially Turkey's orientation to the European Union. There hasn't been enough and comprehensive labor in the market to provide control, activate price create that shows cost, decrease loss/leakage rates and increase energy efficiency.
The EU countries consider Turkey as a bridge to carry energy source with pipe line between them and Turkey's east, south, and north neighbors that are rich in petrol and natural gas. Turkey is planning to increase security and compensate required energy with petrol and natural gas which are coming from these pipe lines.
Domestic value added should be increased in energy sector. Energy share which is obtained from domestic and renewable sources should increase for this purpose. For energy production obtained from renewable energy sources support and exhortation methods should develop and existed exhortations should bring to appeal. Renewable energy sources such as bio energy, solar power, geothermal and wind energy sources need to be more utilized and these energy sources must be exhort. Exhorts of the present renewable energy laws should be increased.
In order to supply for demonstration security, national storage system needs to be activated rapidly and regulate the law for distribute companies to storage natural gas necessity 20 times more in cities. Get rid of dependency to Russia, diversification of source country for natural gas is definite necessity.
All kind of energies tax rates must be decrease besides shouldn't get tax from bio-energy production which is assembly from domestic sources.
Obtain electric from insulated wind energy which claimed to discontinuous and poor quality also doesn't work with production-distribution system can be more effective when uses in production to hydrogen energy.
Private sectors which want to work in this area should be encouraged. Herewith wind energy can storage help by hydrogen energy.
Nuclear energy central's law should come in to force as soon as possible for variation of energy sources and according to gain new technologies.
As a summary of this paper one could conclude that
- Current oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan has a great regional energy integration and economic importance for Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
- Pipelines Baku-Tbilisi - Erzurum, Turkey-Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum and Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan have great significance for energy and economic integration regions of Central Asia-Caucasus-Middle East.
- Oil and gas pipelines, connecting large regions of the world and also having global significance will play an important role in integrating these regions in to world economy.
- An establishment of agreed strategic energy program for a more detailed use of hydropower potential of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries is proposed.
- Within this agreement, the Norwegian hydroelectric experience can be used in Turkey to increase hydroelectricity significantly to export electricity at peak hours by higher prices.
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© Scientific Technical Centre «TATA», 2010
