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movements and organizations are not permitted to function. The state strictly controls and regiments the activity of many religious associations, not only Islamic ones. As a result, extremist activity in Kazakhstan has been clamped down, and head-scarves can be seen in city streets less frequently. One can even notice certain changes in the appearance and behavior of religious women in the country. In other words, "militant secularism" has influenced certain modernization of the current Islamic tradition, and at the same time it should be noted that tradition could adapt to such "strict secularism." It has been possible to smooth out "social bumps" so far, but no one knows how long this situation will last.
"Islam v musulmanskom mire: musulmanskiye dvizheniya i mekhanizmy vosproizvodstva ideologii Islama v sovremennom informatsionnom prostranstve," Kazan, 2014, pp. 144-153
Elena Ionova,
Ph. D. (Hist.), Institute of World Economy
& International Relations, RAS
FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES OF TURKMENISTAN
The many-vector foreign policy proclaimed by Central Asian countries is not identical to equal-vector policy. At present, Turkmenistan's foreign-policy activity is definitely dominated by the eastern vector, which is connected, first and foremost, with China becoming its main partner. The latter has firmly taken the leading position in the entire foreign trade commodity turnover of Turkmenistan. During the period between 2007 and 2013 the volume of mutual trade increased twenty times over and comprised $10 billion by the end of 2013.1
The mutual interest of Beijing and Ashkhabad in drawing closer was expressed in the Joint Declaration signed in September 2013 during the Central Asian journey of the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping. The Declaration proclaimed the establishment of the relations of strategic partnership between Turkmenistan and China (similar agreements have been signed between China and all other Central Asian countries). This visit was a turning point in the relations of the two countries, emphasizing the leading role of the PRC in the oil-and-gas sphere of Turkmenistan.
A state visit to China by the President of Turkmenistan G. Berdimuhamedov in May 2014 served as a confirmation of the development of strategic partnership of the two countries. New agreements have been reached as a result of that visit, and a Declaration on the development and broadening of strategic partnership relations between Turkmenistan and the People's Republic of China has been signed. Apart from that, a Statement on the adoption of a plan of developing strategic partnership relations for a period between 2014 and 2018, and a number of other agreements were also signed.
It is a well-known fact that China's special interest in Turkmenistan is due, first and foremost, to its vast gas resources. China has invested, and continues to invest, billions of dollars in the development of gas deposits and the construction of gas pipelines in that country. One of the greatest successes of the China's National Oil Company (CNOC) has been conclusion of an agreement with Turkmenistan in 2007 on developing a gas deposit on the right bank of the Amudarya River. A part of the gas-bearing land was transferred to the company for a period of over thirty year on the basis of an agreement on sharing the product.
The prospected reserves of this deposit, which is the main basis of the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China commissioned in 2009,
comprise 1.3 trillion cubic meters of gas, more than twenty million tons of oil and twenty million tons of gas condensate. To date the CNOC has invested about $4 billion in this project, including investment in building gas refineries for the trans-Asian gas pipeline. On of them was commissioned in 2009, when the first section of the system was completed, another one was commissioned in May 2014, on the eve of the state visit of G Berdimuhamedov to the PRC. Thus, the CNOC could control the entire cycle of gas production - from the development of deposits right up to gas export to China.
Gradually, China has taken control over the development of the biggest "Galkynysh" deposit, whose reserves are estimated at 26 trillion cubic meters of gas. This block, which unites two biggest gas deposits, is considered the world's second in its resources. It is indicative that at the first stage of the development of this deposit the CNOC was part of an international consortium with participation of companies of South Korea and the United Arab Emirates, whereas at the second stage the Chinese side took upon itself the entire financing of the project.2 According to the data of 2013, Turkmenistan has invested $10 billion in the development of the "Galkynysh" deposit, of which $8 billion were granted by China in the form of credits.3
The beginning of the industrial development of this deposit was marked by the start of building a gas refinery with a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters, which is being constructed by the CNOC.4 It is the "Galkynysh" and "Dovletabad" deposits that should become the raw material base for the Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan -India gas pipeline. Control over the raw material base of this pipeline gives China an opportunity to control its functioning.
However, the greatest success of the PRC in Turkmenistan to date is the construction of the gas pipeline system Turkmenistan -China. Its first section Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan -
China more than 1,800 kilometer-long was completed within three years and started working in 2009. Its creation was in line with the desire of Turkmenistan to replace the main purchaser of Turkmen gas and hydrocarbon raw materials - the Russian "Gazprom" Company -and find an alternative export route. In 2013, China received about 27 billion cubic meters of gas through the trans-Asian pipeline. In 2014, according to Turkmenistan's President, the volume of gas deliveries was planned to be increased up to thirty billion cubic meters, in 2016 -to forty billion cubic meters, and in 2021, when the gas pipeline is fully commissioned, it should reach 65 billion cubic meters.
An increase of gas deliveries to China is conditioned by the broadening of the gas pipeline system of the trans-Asian gas pipeline. In June 2014 its third section was commissioned. According to the project, its capacity in 2015 will reach 25 billion cubic meters annually, twenty billion of which will by provided by Turkmen gas and five billion - by Kazakh gas. The fourth section of the trans-Asian gas pipeline has already been agreed on. During the journey of Xi Jinping to Central Asian countries in 2013 this question was thoroughly discussed. In contrast to the first three sections, the new section will be laid out bypassing Kazakhstan and will pass through the territory of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
These countries will gain considerable benefits from the transit of Turkmen gas to China: it is a known fact that China promised $1 billion to pay to Tajikistan. Tajik officials in Dushanbe hope to receive this sum.5 Taking into account all four sections of the gas pipeline, the entire length of the gas pipeline will reach seven thousand kilometers, which will make it the world's longest pipeline. The choice of the route for the fourth section - through the most troublesome regions of Central Asia - has, most probably, a political background: the pipeline becomes an instrument of spreading China's influence on
the greatest possible number of Central Asian countries. In any case, the Turkmen-Chinese gas pipeline, which is to pass through all countries of the region, becomes an important factor of China's presence in Central Asia.
Turkmenistan acquires the role of one of the main suppliers of natural gas to the People's Republic of China. This gives rise to a certain competition of Russia, all the more so since the planned volumes of Turkmen gas are almost twice as great as those agreed on with Putin during his visit to China in May 2014 (38 billion cubic meters annually). The very fact of G Berdimuhamedov's visit to China on the eve of President Putin's visit there showed Turkmenistan's concern over the fate of the agreements with the People's Republic of China reached earlier in the context of the expected signing of the Russian-Chinese gas contract. While in Beijing President G. Berdimuhamedov received confirmation of unchangeability of China's policy toward Turkmenistan, which was shown by the agreements signed on greater stable cooperation in the sphere of natural gas and on safe exploitation of the Turkmenistan - China gas pipeline.
In the words of the PRC State Council Chairman Li Keqiang, the Chinese side hopes that on the basis of the successful exploitation of the pipeline section already commissioned the construction of new sections will be started and the volume of trade in natural gas will grow. He also emphasized that the Chinese side intended, jointly with Turkmenistan and on the basis of cooperation in the field of energy, to develop connections in new spheres. In his words, "it is necessary to develop interaction in the sphere of oil and gas refining, production of power engineering equipment, agriculture and cattle breeding, communications, and high-tech industries, and to form a new structure of developing interaction in all spheres on the basis of power production and engineering cooperation."6
Experts agree that successful negotiations with Turkmenistan were used by China for bringing pressure to bear on V. Putin's delegation during negotiations between Russian and China. In the view of the independent German expert A. Tibold in Berlin, "the Chinese side is bargaining with the Russian "Gazprom" Company on prices of gas, and Turkmenistan is Russia's rival in this respect. This is why successful gas negotiations serve as another instrument to bring pressure to bear on "Gazprom." The expert does not exclude a possibility of increasing this rivalry, if China begins to develop the recently discovered rich deposits of shale gas.7
Nevertheless, China urgently needs to purchase natural gas (in 2013 it took third place in the world in its consumption, which reached 168 billion cubic meters); in order to ensure its energy security China prefers to receive gas from various sources: apart from Turkmenistan and Russia, it also gets it from Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries.8
For satisfying its gas interests in Turkmenistan, China would also like to create a modern transport-communication system and is prepared to invest considerable means in it. Turkmenistan welcomed the idea put forward by the PRC leadership to organize "the economic zone of the Great Silk Route," which presupposed the creation of a transport-communication infrastructure with participation of Chinese investments, primarily in the zones of the construction of the gas pipeline to China. According to Chairman Xi Jinping, "joint construction of the economic zone of the 'Great Silk Route' will give our countries a new historic chance. We have a great potential in the field of building roads and in transnational cargo transportation."
The attention paid by the PRC leadership to the development of the transport-communication branch of Turkmenistan, which is second in importance in that country, is also conditioned by the geographical
position of Turkmenistan, which is strategically important for China. Turkmenistan borders on the region, which includes Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, which interests China a great deal. For its part, Turkmenistan has stated its intention to turn itself into "an important link of the world communications space," and realize its transit potential, which is determined by the fact that "Turkmenistan occupies an exceptionally advantageous geographical position at a strategically important crossroads of communications ways."9
With this aim in view, a ramified transport-communication system and large-scale projects in all spheres of transport are created there. Among them, the formation of the transit-transport "North -South" corridor and its linking with the transcontinental "East - West" transport route. Chinese investments have been made in building railway lines, airports, motor roads, terminals, and other engineering and technical objects. China supplies railway machines and equipment, goods vans, and locomotives. An agreement on the basic principles of cooperation in the sphere of transport has been signed after G. Berdimuhamedov's visit to the PRC.
Apart from that, agreements have been signed on economic and technical cooperation, memorandum on mutual understanding on cooperation in the sphere of agriculture, an agreement on cooperation between the State Bank of foreign economic activity of Turkmenistan and the Export-Import Bank of China.10 Special attention should be paid to an agreement on the development of cooperation in the sphere of outer space research.
Recently, Turkmenistan has shown interest in working out its own outer space research program. According to certain information, China is ready to render Turkmenistan technical assistance in launching its own artificial earth satellites into orbit (During his visit to China G Berdimuhamedov went to the Chinese aerospace corporation).
A number of experts note the interest of Chinese military figures in creating an outer space monitoring station on the territory of Turkmenistan, of the type of the Russian complex "Okno" in Tajikistan. Thus, it becomes evident that Turkmenistan has preferred the eastern direction of its foreign policy rather than the northern or western ones, turning into a raw materials appendage of the People's Republic of China. It is indicative that Turkmenistan is in no hurry to sell its gas to the West, although Europe is searching for alternative suppliers of gas due to its worsening relations with Russia. It looks likely that Turkmenistan ceased to place its stake on the construction of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline. As the Kazakh political analyst B. Kydyrgaliuly notes, "Turkmenistan is turning away from the unpredicted European direction toward the East and South-East, where a balanced approach and sound mind are always present, and where there are no standards of western pseudo-democracy, and, what is more important, a real economic boom is taking place."11
The traditional importer of Turkmen gas - Russia - has lost its positions in the investment area of Turkmenistan. Moscow realizes full well the existing situation and attempts to undertake certain measures in order to make up for lost time and opportunities. At the end of May of 2014 the vice-premier of the Russian Federation Arkadi Dvorkovich said at the International Gas Congress in Ashkhabad that Russia was interested in taking part in the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline. Russia has time and again stated that it supported the project (its approximate cost is $8 billion) which envisaged the laying out of a trunk gas pipeline 1,735 kilometer-long with a capacity of over 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually.12 The Russian Ministry of Energy representative stated that they hope either to have a share in the company which would implement this project, or to have Russian companies participate in the project as contractors.
It is indicative that the former President of Afghanistan Mahmud Karzai supported Russia on this question. In his words, "Russian companies have a great advantage," because the Russian Federation has already worked in Afghanistan, it has the necessary maps and data of geological prospecting, and it knows Afghanistan in this sphere better than anyone else in the world. Although, certain experts maintain that earlier Afghanistan, prompted by the United States, has blocked the project by postponing the construction tender for an indefinite time under pretext of the unclear situation concerning the withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan.13
As a result, Turkmenistan's intention to begin pumping its gas into this pipeline already in December 2014 remained unrealized. In the spring of 2014 the President of Turkmenistan G Berdimuhamedov said that it was necessary to step up preparatory work on the project in order to begin the construction of the pipeline in 2015. It was planned to commission the TAPI pipeline in 2017.14 Last July the 26th meeting of the Technical working group on the TAPI project was held in Ashkhabad, as well as the 18th meeting of its leading committee. They discussed the questions of the practical realization of the project, particularly those connected with the preparation of certain documents, including those on the prolongation of an agreement signed earlier to a sum of $7.6 billion on gas supplies via the TAPI trunk pipeline.
On the whole, it can be stated that China, in one way or another, is present in all Turkmen projects of vital importance for Turkmenistan. These projects are also in line with the interests of China's development. Evidently, the further relations of these two countries will develop on this basis, and ultimately Turkmenistan may lose control over the major spheres of its economy.
Notes
http://www.turkmenistan/gov.tm/?id-6474
http://rn.gaze1a.ru/busmess/2013/09/04/5637565.shtml
http://www.newskaz.ru/world_news/20130904/5509823.html
http://www.turkmenistan/gov.tm/?id=6474
http://www.centralasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1403555340
http://www.fmpre.gov.cn/rus/zxxx/t1156240.shtml
http://www.dw.de/
According to official data of the PRC, the country's annual gas consumption by 2020 will reach 400 billion cubic meters, and by 2030 - about 600 billion http://www.chrono-tm.org/2014/gazovyiy-kontrakt-veka-ili-neudachnyiy=... http://russia.news.cn/china/2014-05/09/c_133321948.html http://m.trend.az/ragions/casia/turkmenistan/2273278.html http://www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1403555340
Having passed 200 kilometers on Turkmenistan's territory, 755 kilometers in Afghanistan and 800 in Pakistan, the gas pipeline should reach the Pakistani-Indian border.
http://abc.az/rus/news/75868.html http://1prime.ru/INDUSTRY/20140410/783405092.html
"Rossiya i noviye gosudarstva Evrazii: ezhekvartalny zhurnal IMEMO RAN, " Moscow, 2014, III (XXIV), pp. 100-106
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