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In the model dL = 0,59 and du = 1,93, so there is no information about autocorrelation of the model's residuals, so we can use least square technique to estimate the model.
And at the end, we should define confidence interval and show that this model is adequate. For this, we should estimate the lower and upper boundaries
for year, using the following formula: 99,5% boundary = Yt ± * sterror, where
tcrit. is calculated as it has been shown in part "t-test" and standard error = 2,79, Y - predicted value of Yt. Then we should compare the empirical data for each data with the resulted interval boundaries. Low level = -3,42 Upper level = 10,24 Empirical = 3,41
Our empirical for 3,41 of 2013 data lies between upper and lower boundaries predicted by our model.
Each of the above-mentioned theoretical studies have confirmed or denied the viability of one of the models for those in the financial and corporate systems, the study of which it was based. Such countries, as a rule, were the United States or Britain. But those conclusions, which were made for them in the advanced economies, could not find his evidence to the emerging market of the Russian Federation. Here was the main goal of my work: on the basis of empirical studies to test the validity of existing theories for Russian companies.
References:
1. Трегуб И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем монография.- М.: Финакадемия. 2009, 160 с.
2. Tregub Ilona V. Investment Project Risk Analysis in the Environment of Russian Economy / Foreign Investment, Ljubljana Empirical Trade Conference 2012
3. Трегуб И.В. Финансирование инвестиционных проектов: классификация и оценка риска. // Финансы. -2008. - №9. - С. 71-72.
4. www.finam.ru;
5. www.lukoil.ru;
6. www.raexpert.ru;
7. www.rts.ru.
Dolgikh A.Y.
First-year student of master's degree in Financial University under the
Government of the Russian Federation Moscow city, Russia ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF UNEMPLOYMEN RATE ON THE
EXAMPLE OF JAPAN Among the G-7 countries, the seven richest countries in the world, Eurozone countries are suffering from high and persistent unemployment. Then, what is the situation in Japan? In the 1980s, with the highest economic growth and the
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lowest jobless rate among the major industrial countries, Japan was shining, claiming "Japan as Number One" or "Model Japan." After the burst of the bubble boom in 1990, the era of "a lost decade" began, in which the growth rate was nearly zero and in some years below zero. In 1997, Japan was on the verge of a great depression. In 2002 and 2003 the labor market deteriorated further, recording the highest jobless rate after the war. How high was the worst jobless rate? It was 5.25%.
So our project aims to find reasons for the increasing unemployment rate in Japan. In order to do that we will create econometric model and find out what factors influence on unemployment rate.
So, in this article will be estimating the model, where Yt is the unemployment rate in percent of total labor force. X1t - rate of inflation, X2t -population, X3t - general government net debt, X4t - current account balance.
For analyzing and testing the model, we found out some specific data. We took annual data from 1980 to 2013 about unemployment rate, rate of inflation, population, general government net debt and current account balance in Japan. Specification of a econometrics model Mathematical interpretation of the model is presented below: " Yt = Pq + P1XU + №t + PsXst + №t + ut, ^ E (ut) = 0, o (ut) = const
Table 1 Regression statistics
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,95
R Square 0,91
Adjusted R Square 0,89
Standard Error 0,37
Observations 31
Table 2 Variance analysis
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 34,38 8,59 62,92 0,000000000001
Residual 26 3,55 0,14
Total 30 37,93
Table 3
Coeffici Standar t Stat P- \)fi ]it Lower Upper Lower Upper
ents d Error t Stat valu e 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
Intercept -13,69 5,91 -2,32 0,03 -25,83 -1,55 -25,83 -1,55
0,00
Rate of inflation -0,20 0,06 -3,44 2 -0,32 -0,08 -0,32 -0,08
Population 0,14 0,05 2,82 0,01 0,04 0,24 0,04 0,24
General 0,00
government net 0,03 0,003 8,09 0 0,02 0,03 0,02 0,03
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debt
Current account 0,00
balance_-0,01 0,003 -3,69 1 -0,02 0,00 -0,02 -0,004
Specification of estimated econometric model:
Yt = -13,69 - 0,20Xit +0,14X2t +0,03X3t - 0,01Xjt + ut (5,91) (0,06) (0,05) (0,003) (0,003) (0,37) ^ F = 62,92; Fcrit. = 2,74 R2 = 0,91; tcrit. = 2,06
Model testing
Now it needs to test the model. The calculated regression coefficients p0, p1, p2, p3, p4, allow us to construct the equation Yt = -13,69 - 0,20X1t +0,14X2t +0,03X3t - 0,01X4t + ut, where ut is random value.
Value of multiple coefficient of determination R equals to 0,91. It shows that 91% of total deviation of Yt is explained by the variation of the factors X1t, X2t. X3t and X4t. Such value of R is good, as it is close to 1. It means that the selected factors do not effect significantly our model, which confirms the correctness of the inclusion in the estimated model.
The calculated level of significance 0,000000000001<0,05 (see table 2)
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confirms the R significance. R is not random and quality of specification of our econometrics model is high.
To check the significance of the coefficients, it is used t-test. That is to test the inequality |t|>tcrit., where t is the value of t-statistics (table 3). If the inequality is right, the coefficient and the regressor are considered to be significant and vice versa. tcnt. = CTtroAPACn0EP(0,05; 26) = 2,06, where 0,05 is the level of significance, 26 is the number of degrees of freedom, it equals to n-(m+1). All absolute values of t-statistics in table 3 are more than tcrit., therefore, all the regression coefficients are significant.
The Goldfield-Quandt test also confirms that we can use OLS - method to check the model. Random disturbance are considered to be homoscedastic if both of the following inequalities are valid: f GQ < Fcnt. 11/GQ < Fcrit.
In the model both inequalities are valid, so the assumption about homoscedasticity of random disturbance is adequate.
So, the econometric model of unemployment was constructed and it found out what factors influence it.
From the estimated econometric model the coefficients should be interpreted the next way:
• If inflation increases by 1%, the unemployment rate will decrease by 0,20%;
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• If population increases by 1 million people, the unemployment rate will increase by 0,14%;
• If general government net debt increases by 1%, the unemployment rate will increase by 0,03%;
• If current account balance increases by 1 billion U.S. dollars, the unemployment rate will decrease by 0,01%;
So, relationship between changes in unemployment rate and above listed macroeconomics indicators can be useful to policymakers and economists. This model is of good explanatory ability and can be used for general data analysis and forecasting.
References
1. Трегуб И.В., Кузнецов В.Д.//Математическое моделирование экономических показателей//Современные проблемы науки и образования. -2013. - №6
2. Богданова М.Е., Трегуб И.В. // Актуальные проблемы математического моделирования в финансово - экономической области. Сборник научных статей. М.: ФА, 2008. - вып. 7. - С. 102-105.
3. Tregub Ilona V. Keynesianism and Modern Economy // Empirical Investigations in International Trade. December 17, 2011
4. http://www.imf.org
Elezovic Z.M. magister
Research Associate in the The Institute of serbian Culture
Leposavic, Serbia
SERBIAN MONASTERIES IN KOSOVO AS WORLD CULTURAL HERITAGE AND CENTERS OF RELIGIOUS TOURISM
Abstract: This paper discusses the Serbian monasteries in Kosovo and Metohija that are on the list of world cultural heritage, as an important element of Serbian national identity. These monasteries are visited by a large number of believers and tourists, which is an example of the relationship of cultural heritage and cultural tourism. The article was written on the project Material and spiritual culture of Kosovo and Metohija (178028).
Keywords: Serbia, Kosovo and Metohija, monasteries, cultural heritage, cultural tourism, religious tourism
Kosovo and Metohia are home for the most important monuments of Serbian cultural inheritance. Because of their extraordinary historical and artistic value, great part of them was included in the UNESCO World Heritage List. These monuments are today jeopardized due to contemporary political circumstances in which southern province of Serbia found itself, as Albanians declared an independent state in the year of 2008. Extremists have a very negative attitude towards the Serbian monasteries, although they do not represent only a Serbian cultural heritage, but the heritage that has global, worldwide importance.
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