CC BY
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УДК 330.43
Pimkina N.A. 1st year master student
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow Пимкина Н. А. студент магистратуры, 1 курс Финансовый Университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
Россия, Москва
ФЕНОМЕН ГОЛЛАНДСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ ЯПОНИИ THE PHENOMENON OF DUTCH DISEASE IN JAPANESE ECONOMY Аннотация: В статье рассмотрен анализ наличия голландской болезни в Японии. На примере этой страны построена эконометрическая модель в зависимости от основного экономического показателя страны на экспорт нефти. Также проведен анализ текущей экономической ситуации в Японии. Сделаны выводы касательно негативного эффекта этого феномена.
Annotation: This paper investigates the phenomenon of Dutch disease in Japanese economy. This paper illustrates this phenomenon by constructing the econometric model, exercising an analysis and testing the model. There is conclusion and recommendations about negative effect of this phenomenon.
Ключевые слова: голландская болезнь, девальвация, курс валюты, национальная валюта
Key words: Dutch disease, devaluation, exchange rate, national currency The present paper is about the phenomenon of Dutch disease and its influence on the Japanese economy. Dutch disease is an economics term that refers to the negative consequences arising from large increases in the value of a country's
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currency. It is primarily associated with a natural resource discovery but can result from any large influx of foreign currency into a country, including foreign direct investment, foreign aid or a substantial increase in natural resource prices.
All estimation results are explained with details in the chapter 6 so in this chapter, the focus is on the econometric models that are applied to the estimations. This paper aims at examining whether or not and how economic factors of the Dutch Disease are correlated in terms of econometrics using the existing statistic data in the Netherlands. To relate economic theories to the econometric model, macro date such as GDP, net export of natural gas, inflation rate and exchange rate are required. Note that many of studies about the Dutch Disease in the Netherlands were done before the euro launch therefore, these studies automatically neglect the effect of the currency change. Several years after the economic crises, euro has been introduced and the introduction has completed in 2002. In this paper, whether/ how the euro introduction has affected the Dutch economy is examined by making a time series estimation which takes the natural gas boom, the economic crisis and the euro launch into account. Applying to economic theories and models mentioned in the previous chapter, the econometric model and its expected consequence are as follows:
GDP* = XGAS + INFL + EX (+) (-) (+) (-) XGAS: natural gas export INFL: inflation rate EX: exchange rate
GDP* Assumed production function is determined only by quantity of resource input of A. Under this assumption, the production function can be written as in this form: q = q (a)
Labor is actually used as a single variable that determines output (natural gas export, in this paper).
In the following table, we can see the results of the observation:
Sample: 2000Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 56 Total system (balanced) observations 112
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C(1) 20899.39 794.2558 26.31318 0.0000
C(2) 128.9705 34.88553 3.696962 0.0004
C(3) 153.7551 166.8334 0.921609 0.3589
C(4) -54.26712 22.63538 -2.397447 0.0183
C(5) 43.28322 8.991964 4.813545 0.0000
C(6) -23.21115 23.02149 -1.008238 0.3157
C(7) -3.98E-06 5.20E-07 -7.656584 0.0000
C(8) 0.171317 0.023005 7.447014 0.0000
C(9) 0.408311 0.242824 1.681514 0.0957
Determinant residual
covariance 142940.2
Equation: GDP= C(1)+ C(2)*EXPORT + C(3)*INTEREST +C(4)*UN +C(5)
*TRADE
Instruments: EXPORT INTEREST UN TRADE C
Observations: 56_
R-squared 0.724066 Mean dependent var 26698.38
Adjusted
R-squared 0.702424 S.D. dependent var 626.0863
S.E. of
regression 341.5334 Sum squared resid 5948899.
Durbin-
Watson stat0.376534
Equation: EXPORT = C(6)+ C(7)*EMPLOY+ C(8)*TRADE +C(9)*C_PRICES
Instruments: EMPLOY TRADE C_PRICES C
Observations: 56_
R-squared 0.739187 Mean dependent var 13.85373
Adjusted
R-squared 0.724140 S.D. dependent var 2.311668
S.E. of
regression 1.214143 Sum squared resid 76.65545
Durbin-
Watson stat0.567087
Therefore, it is possible to say that this model is not quite working and trustable. Due to the fact that the data is not significant for such a phenomenon and lack of information, we have obtained such results. In order to avoid autocorrelation I have tried to use other variables, but the results were worse than they are now.
So, in Japan the factors of production highly influence the exports and GDP. Actually, in Japan there exists the negative effect, which is influenced by the real appreciation of the national currency. That's why, government continues easing policy, but the "boom" in the sector of economy also involves difficulties. So, according to a model and current data it is possible to make a conclusion that Dutch disease is not found.
Japanese problems are not amenable to simple explanation and solution. They are so numerous and interconnected that the situation seems intractable. Japan is aging and getting older eyes. Revival is possible, but for the sake of it will have to completely abandon the preservation of the status quo, who are so committed to Japan.
Macroeconomic policy based on the strengthening of the national currency, sooner or later leads to deep, first financial and then economic crisis and stagnation. As shown by the current crisis, but much earlier, the crisis in Japan, the strengthening of the national currency associated with high macroeconomic risks. We are talking about a well-known cyclical, rapidly expanding self-reproducing process of inflating bubbles in the stock market, the real estate market, the acceleration of lending, the rapid growth of corporate external debt, that is, the process associated with the so-called "country award", carry trade, caused by the strengthening of the national currency. Such a crisis occurs, regardless of the commodity or non-commodity nature of the economy. But for the commodity economy, its consequences are much more serious
List of sources
1.Coden, W. M., Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, Vol.36, No.3 (Nov.,1984), pp. 359-380
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