CC BY
2
determined by general government revenue, oil prices and net exports as well as exchange rate, in terms of "Dutch disease". Libyan economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon sector and depends on exports volume. There are several common methods .
List of references:
1. Libya: Selected Issues. February 2005 IMF Country Report No. 05/52
2. Трегуб И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем -монография, М.: 200. 120 p.
3. Oil Price and Dutch Disease: The Case of Libya R. Jbir & S. Zouari-Ghorbel Unité de recherche MO.DEV.I 99/UR/0624, Département des Sciences Economiques, Faculté de Sciences Economiqueset de Gestion de Sfax, 06 Jul 2011
4. Suslov M.Yu.E., Tregub I.V. Ordinary least squares and currency exchange rate // International Scientific Review. 2015. № 2 (3). С. 33-36.
5. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=LBY (Statistical data base)
УДК 330.43
Tereshina O. Yu. 1st year master student Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Russia, Moscow Терешина О.Ю. студент 1 курса магистратуры Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской
Федерации Россия, г. Москва THE PHENOMENON OF DUTCH DISEASE AND THE IMPACT OF INVESTMENTS ON THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY ФЕНОМЕН ГОЛЛАНДСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ И ВЛИЯНИЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ НА ЭКОНОМИКУ ПОРТУГАЛИИ Аннотация: В статье рассматривается феномен голландской болезни и его влияние на современные экономические системы, в частности на экономику Португалии. Были предприняты попытки исследовать влияние прямых инвестиций и их вклад в развитие голландской болезни в экономике Португалии. Проведены исследования влияния инвестиций на ключевые экономические показатели - ВВП и экспорт. Статья содержит эконометрическую модель описывающую и объясняющую корреляцию между данными показателями в рамках рассматриваемого феномена.
Ключевые слова: голландская болезнь, прямые инвестиции, прямые иностранные инвестиции
Abstract: The present paper considers the phenomenon of Dutch disease and its influence on modern economies, in particular on the economy of Portugal. During the research were made attempts to investigate whether direct investments contribute to the Dutch disease process in the Portuguese economy. Due to this the influence of investments on key economic indicators such as GDP and export was examined. The paper includes econometric model describing and assessing the correlation between these indicators in terms of the regarded phenomenon.
Key words: Dutch disease, FDI, NDI, direct investments
Dutch disease represents an unfavorable situation in the economy usually caused by the discovery of a new field and resulted in the production decline and as consequence stagnated economy. The phenomenon was firstly introduced as the explanation of the negative influence on the economy of the Netherlands due to the discovery of a significant number of gas deposits. Thus negative effect on the economy is usually determined by the rapid development of one particular sector and the subsequent decline in the others, which reflects mainly on the country's export, import and GDP, and as well may lead to the rise of inflation and unemployment rates.
Despite the fact that natural resource boom is usually regarded as the major cause of the considering phenomenon, negative economic consequences may be explained by a massive inflow of foreign currency especially through foreign assistance and foreign direct investments. This assumption can be exemplified by Portuguese experience.
The researchers confirm that Portuguese economy was subjected to Dutch disease due to several reasons, among which the intensive development of natural resources is also mentioned. However the leading and principal reason of the phenomenon is believed to be foreign assistance as a result of the European Union integration and the accession of Portugal in it, thus foreign direct investment inflow is also considered to be a cause of Dutch disease.
The main aim of the paper was to investigate whether Portugal was still experiencing Dutch disease and to determine whether direct investments contributed to this process. Due to this purpose two separate models of systems of equations were constructed. The data were taken from the reliable sources, such as OECD database and FRED economic data. In accordance with the outlined objectives the first step represented an attempt to create a model including FDI as one of the regressors and estimate its impact on the country's GDP a nd export. Assuming that GDP and export were dependent variables the following indicators were chosen for the models: LP- labor productivity, EMP - employment, EXPORT - export, national currency, IPI -industrial production index, GCONSE - government consumption expenditure, GF - gross fixed capital formation, FDI -foreign direct investment, CONSPR - private consumption expenditure, RTV -retail trade volume, IPI -industrial production index, WA - population of working age, NDI -net direct investment.
The obtained results showed the first model could not be estimated as a trustable one as the first equation included several unimportant variables (FDI was among them) and did not satisfy the third Gauss-Markov's condition about the absence of autocorrelation. However, the second equation in the model could be regarded as adequate due to the R-squared and Durbin-Watson statistics figures, moreover with probability value of 0,0011 that was less than 0,05 value FDI should be treated as an important variable affecting the regressant in the equation. Thus it is possible to assume that FDI do have influence on the dependent variable and the decrease in investment leads to the increase in IPI and RTV for instance.
For the second model all dependent and independent variables remained the same and FDI variable was substituted with NDI one (net direct investment), moreover slight changes in time range were introduced due to the insufficiency of statistic data. The results are presented below:
Sample: 2000Q1 2010Q4 Included observations: 44 Total system (balanced) observations 88
Coefficient Std. Error t-St atistic Prob.
C( 1) -33154.63 1349.341 -24.57098 0. 0000
C(2) 39348.69 1094.463 35.95250 0.0000
C(3) 0.007156 0.000217 33.03130 0.0000
C(4) 2.60E-08 1.75E-08 1.483882 0.1421
C(5) 9.784827 2.263351 4.323159 0.0000
C(6) 1.53E-07 5.11E-08 3.000343 0.0037
C(7) 9.43E-08 2.38E-08 3.954246 0.0002
C(8) 1.27E-08 4.23E-09 3.008836 0.0036
C(9) 7.07E+10 1.73E+10 4.077228 0.0001
C(10) 4.16E+08 94462918 4.401585 0.0000
C(11) -0.083321 0.020056 -4.154488 0.0001
C(12) 84361809 24934544 3.383331 0.0012
C(13) 1.51E+10 4.71E+09 3.211202 0.0020
C(14) 77870747 11686765 6.663157 0.0000
C(15) -13709.60 2233.949 -6.136934 0.0000
Determinant residual covariance 4.87E+19
Equation: GDP = C(1)+ C(2) *LP +C(3) *EMP + C(4)*EXPORT +C(5)*IPI
+C(6)*GCONSE +C(7)*GF +C(8)* NDI Instruments: LP EMP EXPORT IPI GCONSE GF NDI C
Observations: 44_
R-squared 0.999141 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-
squared 0.998973 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression 39.18036 Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 1.536006
43736.12
1222.801 55263.62
Equation: EXPORT= C(9)+ C(10)*CONSPR +C(11)*NDI+ C(12)*RTV +
C(13)*LP+ C(14)*IPI +C(15)*WA Instruments: CONSPR NDI RTV LP IPI WA CPI C Observations: 44
R-squared 0.983863 Mean dependent var 1.62E+10
Adjusted R-
squared 0.981247 S.D. dependent var 1.57E+09
S.E. of regression 2.15E+08 Sum squared resid 1.71E+18
Durbin-Watson stat 1.955921
In comparison with the previous model all the variables in both equations satisfy the condition of being less than 0,05 probability value except for the export variable in the first equation. However, it cannot be excluded from the model firstly due to the fact that it is one of the main components of GDP according to the formula and secondly, after running a t-Test it becomes clear that its t-value is less than t-critical (approximately 1,98) that supports the idea of the variable's significance to the model.
Thus, from the interpretation of these model coefficients it can be seen that the increase in labor productivity, export, industrial production index and other independent variables from the first equation lead to the increase in NDI and consequently the overall increase in these variables leads to the changes in GDP. At the same time the increase in private consumption expenditure leads to the decrease in NDI and the following increase in retail trade volume, labor productivity, industrial production index and population of working age that leads to the change in export, hence the assumption that net direct investment can affect the dependent variable is confirmed.
R-squared figures for both equations are acceptable implying that equations are satisfying and reasonable. Turning to Durbin-Watson test results we cannot say surely whether autocorrelation is present or not, however in the second equation we can assume the absence of autocorrelation as figure is slightly less than 2. After running White test aimed at determining Heteroscedasticity we had to implement several adjustments to fight Heteroscedasticity in the first equation, thus we can speak about its absence in the model.
Summarizing all the above and taking into consideration the tests' results we can come to the conclusion that investments do influence such key economic indicators as GDP and export. However, we cannot claim that the correlation among these factors accounts for the phenomenon of Dutch disease in Portuguese economy due to the nature of the model. Below the results of the tests do not allow us to treat the model as an infallible proof of the presence of Dutch disease in modern economy. Still we should consider the significance of net direct investments and at least to regard them as a premise of possible experience of this process.
List of sources:
1. Joao Sousa Andrade, Adelaide Duarte, The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis // PANOECONOMICUS, 2, 2011. PP. 195-218.
2. Joao Sousa Andrade, Adelaide Duarte, The Dutch Disease in the Portuguese Economy // Estudos do GEMF, #5, 2013.
3. Zuzana Brincikova, The Dutch Disease: An Overview // European Scientific Journal, August 2016.
4. Трегуб И.В. Investment project risk analysis in the modern Russian economy // research in empirical international trade. - Slovenia: working papers. June. 2012.
5. Трегуб И.В. Анализ модели инфляции с применением эконометрических и имитационных методов // сборник трудов научно-практической конференции «эконометрические методы в исследовании глобальных экономических процессов», 29 октября 2013 г. Москва, МГИМО (у) МИД России, фонд развития МГИМО. М.: АНКИЛ, 2013. С.223-232
6. Трегуб И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем -монография, М.: 2009.
УДК 330.4
Tsarkova V.S. First-year master student International Finance Faculty Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow 2017
THE USE OF ECONOMETRIC METHODS IN THE CONSTRUCTING OF MATHEMATICAL SYSTEMS FOR DETECTING «DUTCH DISEASE» IN ECONOMY. EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA Key words:
Nigeria, «Dutch disease», Gross domestic product, Total export of goods, consumer price index, exchange rate US dollar/ Nigerian naira, oil prices, foreign direct investment. Abstract
This article analyzes the development of the Dutch disease in Nigeria. For the analysis I used yearly data from 1995 to 2015. These results illustrate that a significant proportion of Nigeria's GDP is generated mainly due to the revenues from fuel exports , while other industries remain outside the attention of the state and stay underdeveloped. I used an econometric model, whereby the analysis confirmed the hypothesis of the presence of Dutch disease in Nigeria's economy.
Summary
At the present stage of economic development, many countries faced the problem associated with the movement of factors of production from less developing sectors of the economy in a rapidly developing industries. Typically, such movement includes the capital, as investments in the fast-growing sector
