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2.Tregub I.V. Econometrics. Model of real system - monograph, M.: 2016 - 166 p.
3.Tregub I.V. Construction methods of predictive models for the basic parameters of development of the Russian economy sectors - monograph, M.: 2014 - 164 p.
4.Chivakul M., Lam W. R., Liu X., Maliszewski W., Schipke A. Understanding Residential Real Estate in China // International Monetary Fund. April 2015. — WP/15/84 - 355 p.
5.Tregub I.V., Skopinskii A.I. An empirical investigation of linkages between BRICS and developed financial markets // Economy and business. 2015 - No. 112 (64-2) - pp. 151-166.
6.Tregub I.V. Mathematical Models of the Economic Systems Dynamycs. -Moscow: Finance Academy, 2009 - 120 p. (in Russian)
7.Tregub I.V. Cointegration models of the BRICS economies - Forum of Research in Empirical Internatoinal Trade - 2016 - No.1079 - 7 p.
8.Federal State Statistics Service of Russia: http://www.gks.ru
9.National Bureau of Statistics of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn
10.World Bank national accounts data: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports
УДК 330.43
Selkova M.A. 1st undergraduate course Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russia, Moscow Селькова М. А. студент магистратуры, 1 курс Финансовый Университет при Правительстве Российской
Федерации Россия, Москва
ФЕНОМЕН ГОЛЛАНДСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ ОАЭ THE PHENOMENON OF DUTCH DISEASE IN ECONOMY OF UAE Аннотация: В статье проведен анализ наличия голландской болезни в ОАЭ. Рассмотрена корреляция между несколькими показателями, включая цены на нефть и их влияние на ВВП. Приведена эконометрическая модель иллюстрирующая приведённые взаимосвязи и полученные результаты. Сделаны выводы и даны рекомендации касательно негативного эффекта голландской болезни в ОАЭ.
Annotation: This paper iillustrates the phenomenon of Dutch disease in economy of UAE. The correlation between several variables including oil export price and their impact on GDP was examined. The article includes econometric model illustrating considered relations and obtained results. There is conclusion and recommendations about negative effect of this phenomenon.
Ключевые слова: голландская болезнь, девальвация, курс валюты, национальная валюта.
Key words: Dutch disease, devaluation, exchange rate, national currency
The present paper is devoted to the phenomenon of Dutch disease and its influence on modern economies, in particular on the economy of UAE. Dutch disease represents an unfavorable situation in the economy usually caused by the discovery of a new field and resulted in the production decline and as consequence stagnated economy.
The success of the UAE in using resource rents for economic development and higher welfare, nevertheless, does not rule out the fact that some of the symptoms of the resource curse are present. The most significant indication of such problems is in the stagnation of productivity levels throughout most of the last 25 years. Production in both oil and non-oil sectors of economic activity have grown largely fueled by massive investment and an even higher use of manpower, but the efficiency in the use of such factors have remained stagnant and, in some areas, steadily declined as the country got richer.
Abundance of natural resources, and therefore the ample supply of foreign currency associated with their export to world markets, could induce the so-called Dutch disease. Under this theory the significant inflow of currency -particularly if it occurs in a short period of time— could induce a swift appreciation of the local currency thereby reducing the profitability of other economic sectors and shrinking the productive basis of the economy. Naturally, part of the currency appreciation reflects an equilibrium adjustment subsequent to the fact that the economy is now richer than it was before. Nevertheless, it is frequently the case that the currency overvaluation of resource rich countries far exceeds any long-term equilibrium appreciation. Countries that have had fixed currencies -e.g., such as the UAE where the Dirham is pegged to the US dollar— are less affected by nominal appreciation of their currencies, yet the real appreciation can also be substantial via increases in wages and the cost of capital and land. Beyond the currency appreciation, the Dutch-disease operates also in a subtler manner: natural resource abundance is, more often than not, accompanied by increased economic volatility. The prices of raw materials tend to fluctuate widely in world markets (vis-à-vis the price of manufactured goods). The resulting fluctuations in export earnings trigger exchange rate volatility and create uncertainty that can be harmful to exports and other trade, including foreign investment. The Dutch disease tends to bias the composition of exports away from those kinds of manufacturing and service exports that may be particularly good for growth over time.
Sample: 2000Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 56
Total system (balanced) observations 112
Coefficient Std. Error t-St atistic Prob.
C( 1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(5)
15.55652 5.820132 2.672881 0. 0088
-1.07E-05 1.56E-06 -6.852283 0.0000
0.185821 0.027580 6.737596 0.0000
0.151292 0.025201 6.003401 0.0000
0.167591 0.038429 4.361018 0.0000
C(6) 81.63635 21.21530 3.847994 0.0002
C(7) -0.286657 0.142690 -2.008951 0.0472
C(8) -0.708270 0.209854 -3.375055 0.0010
C(9) 1.398475 0.181721 7.695716 0.0000
C(10) 0.210830 0.104455 2.018395 0.0462
Determinant residual covariance 1.909410
Equation: ETOTAL = C(1) +C(2)*E+ C(3)*PRICE+C(4)*PRODUCTION+ C(5) *TRADEV
Instruments: E PRICE PRODUCTION TRADEV C
Observations: 56 _
12.26773
2.524822 15.23627
R-squared 0.956544 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-
squared 0.953135 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression 0.546581 Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat 0.478255
Equation: TRADEV = C(6)+ C(7)*PRICE +C(8)*RATE+ C(9)*IMPORT+C(10)
*PRODUCTION Instruments: PRICE RATE IMPORT PRODUCTION C
Observations: 56 _
95.97536
5.481888 399.3196
R-squared 0.758400 Mean dependent var Adjusted R-
squared 0.739451 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression 2.798177 Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat 0.486976
Thus, from the interpretation of these model coefficients it can be seen that the increase in labor productivity, export, industrial production index and other independent variables from the first equation lead to the increase in NDI and consequently the overall increase in these variables leads to the changes in GDP. At the same time the increase in private consumption expenditure leads to the decrease in NDI and the following increase in retail trade volume, labor productivity, industrial production index and population of working age that leads to the change in export, hence the assumption that net direct investment can affect the dependent variable is confirmed.
R-squared figures for both equations are acceptable implying that equations are satisfying and reasonable. Turning to Durbin-Watson test results, we cannot say surely whether autocorrelation is present or not, however in the second equation we can assume the absence of autocorrelation as figure is slightly less than 2. After running White test aimed at determining Heteroscedasticity we had to implement several adjustments to fight Heteroscedasticity in the first equation, thus we can speak about its absence in the model.
The model is invalid. The conclusions cannot be made whether the Dutch disease is found or not in UAE. I wanted to test how other factors effect and do not intersect early researchers. I attempted to remove autocorrelation by introducing other variables.
If the United Arab Emirates would be a victim of the disease the decline in exports of the natural resource will result in a decline in the non-oil tradable goods, which will affect the country negatively. Furthermore, the disease can also make it more difficult for the country to deal with the problem of high inflation. Furthermore, the larger increase in the non-tradable sector compared to the tradable sector is also an indication of the disease in the country. According to these findings the authors can conclude that United Arab Emirates has experienced symptoms of the disease, however, it cannot be concluded that it has been a victim of the disease.
List of sources
1.Paul Krugman, The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease, and the Competitive Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher. Journal of Development Economics 1987
2.Raimundo Soto, Iiham Haouas, Has the UAE escaped the oil course? Working paper series 2012
3.Трегуб И.В. Investment project risk analysis in the modern Russian economy // research in empirical international trade. - Slovenia: working papers. June. 2012.
4. Трегуб И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем -монография, М.: 2009.
УДК 519.868
Shantsev A. V. master student of 1st year IFF group 1-2m
Scientific adviser: Tregub I. V., Ph.D. in Technics, Sc.D. in Economics
Professor
Financial University under the Government of the RF
Moscow, Russia Шанцев А.В. студент, магистратура 1 курс, МФФ группа 1-2м Научный руководитель: Трегуб И.В., к.тн., д.э.н., профессор Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФ
Россия, Москва
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF "DUTCH DISEASE": EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ «ГОЛЛАНДСКОЙ БОЛЕЗНИ»: АВСТРАЛИЯ Annotation: During the process of continuous development, countries experience various challenges and problems. Economic problems are one of the
