CC BY
20
Elena Ionova,
Cand. Sc. (Hist.) (IWEIR RAS)
DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN-UZBEK RELATIONS
Uzbekistan holds a special place in the system of Russia's relations with the countries of Central Asia. On the one hand, this republic is an important economic partner of the Russian Federation, and on the other, it has always taken a special stand on a number of political issues and is a far from simple ally of Moscow. At present a certain rapprochement can be observed in the relations between the two countries, which is conditioned by foreign factors. The events now taking place in certain North African and Middle Eastern countries and especially the actions of the United States and its allies in this region could not but cause a definite reaction on the part of the Central Asian countries, which entered the orbit of western interests as an important and promising source of fuel and energy.
The economic relations of Russia and Uzbekistan, whose significance has never been put to doubt, are objectively the foundation of the development of bilateral cooperation. Uzbekistan now holds fourth place, as before, in Russia's goods turnover with the CIS countries, after Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation is the biggest trade partner of Uzbekistan. Although the absolute figures of the goods turnover of the two countries are not too great (in 2010 it comprised $3.4 billion and $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2011), Russia's share accounts for more than 22 percent of the entire foreign trade of the republic.
According to Uzbek sources, the trade turnover of the two countries increased by about 56 percent in the first quarter of 2011, as compared with the similar period of the previous year. This was due to the 78% increase of Uzbek export to the Russian Federation (mainly by greater supplies of Uzbek gas, cars and textiles), as well as the 30%
growth of Russian import to the republic. Uzbekistan supplies Russia with natural gas, agricultural products, textiles and cars, and renders transport and communication services. Russia exports to Uzbekistan non-ferrous and ferrous metals, various industrial equipment, timber and wood-working products.
It should be noted that Uzbekistan's market is quite attractive for Russian capital, despite a number of specific features of the "Uzbek model" of market economy. For one, the incomplete character of market reforms is expressed in that the turnover of foreign currency is limited in Uzbekistan. Besides, there are such factors as the growing overpopulation, poverty and low living standards, which lead to growing social tension in the republic. Unemployment contributes to the outflow of the local population (Uzbekistan holds first place in the number of foreign citizens arriving in Russia in search of work).
At the same time Uzbekistan's leaders pursue a course aimed at diversifying the country's economy which creates favorable prerequisites for investment cooperation. Definite successes in this sphere are reflected in a change of the list of exported commodities: along with traditional ones - cotton, textiles, non-ferrous metals and products of the chemical industry and agriculture, the share of products of oil refinery, machines and equipment is constantly growing.
The country holds sixth place in the world in mining uranium, and the Navoi ore-dressing plant with a capacity of 2.4 tons of uranium a year is among the ten such plants in the world. The republic mines about 90 tons of gold annually and holds ninth place in the world in this field. Uzbekistan is, as before, one of the leading producers and exporters of cotton in the world. In the view of independent experts, among the main factors of the economic growth of the republic in 2010 were high world prices of gold and gas, which compensated for the lower prices of cotton.
On the whole, the financial and economic crisis has not seriously influenced the macroeconomic indices of the republic (it was largely due to the stability of the bank sector which did not borrow on the outside market and actively credited small and medium-sized businesses).
A sufficiently developed industrial basis and the absence of considerable losses from the world financial and economic crisis are favorable distinguishing features of Uzbekistan, as compared to other Central Asian countries, and create reliable prerequisites for the development of economic cooperation with Russia. At present there are 843 Russian-Uzbek joint ventures registered in the republic and 385 such enterprises with Uzbek partners are functioning in Russia. The Russian companies "Gazprom," "Lukoil," "Soyuzneftegaz," "Stroitransgaz," "Volgaburmash," and others are working on a whole number of projects to develop the infrastructure of the fuel and energy complex, geological prospecting, etc.
After President D. Medvedev's visit to Uzbekistan in June 2011 prospects for broad military-technical cooperation between the two countries have emerged and a greater participation of Russia in raising the defense potential of Uzbekistan. The possibilities of broader military-technical cooperation between the two countries were examined during a visit to Tashkent of the head of the Federal service on military-technical cooperation of the Russian Federation with other countries M. Dmitriyev. It is to include supplies of modern military equipment, repair and modernization of arms and ammunition, etc.
At present both Moscow and Tashkent demonstrate unity of views on the basic issues connected with regional security and multiform economic cooperation within the framework of the SCO. This concerns, first and foremost, the Afghan problem. The leaders of Russia and Uzbekistan come out for a peaceful solution of the problems
connected with the terrorist and drug-trafficking threats originating in Afghanistan and favor the participation of the leadership of that country in this process.
As the President of Uzbekistan I. Karimov said at the last SCO summit in Astana, "it is only through a compromise between the conflicting sides, the drawing of the Afghan leaders themselves to this process and the social-economic rebirth of Afghanistan with the help of the world community that it would be possible to find a way out of the present impasse." Suffice it to recall that several years ago President I. Karimov put forward an initiative for setting up a contact "six plus three" group (six neighbors of Afghanistan plus the United States, Russia and NATO) without the participation of the Afghan side. That initiative found no support either in Washington or in Moscow.
As to the economic activity of the SCO, the two parties favor the priority development of transport communications and the infrastructure - the building and modernization of motor roads, railway lines and air transport, as well as the creation of modern logistics centers. In this connection Uzbekistan actively supported the proposal of the People's Republic of China to organize the SCO development bank, which presupposed the formation of a multilateral mechanism of financing priority socio-economic and infrastructural projects. The President of Uzbekistan includes in them the construction of a transport corridor between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf; an interstate agreement on this was signed in Ashkhabad in January 2011. It should create the shortest land route connecting the SCO area with the ports of the Persian Gulf.
At the same time the relations between Moscow and Tashkent have been aggravated for several years already by certain questions on which the two sides have largely different stands. This resulted in Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Cooperation
Organization in 2008. One of the reasons for this, according to President I. Karimov, was Uzbekistan's disagreement with the conditions of joining the organization's member-states the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Besides, Tashkent is dissatisfied with the plans to construct big hydropower plants in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Russian participation, which will cause a great loss of water which is so precious in Central Asia. This is the main reason for Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Cooperation Organization.
In the view of the Russian expert A Kurtov, this step of Uzbekistan has been caused by the fact that the republic failed to reach agreement on and understanding of its position within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Cooperation Organization on the use of the water resources of the region. The expert emphasizes that "Tashkent has repeatedly put forward a proposal to regulate the water problem at various forums. Its position was to refuse from building gigantic hydropower installations on cross-border rivers, including the Amudarya, Syrdarya and their tributaries."
In 2009 Uzbekistan announced its withdrawal from the Unified energy system of Central Asia. This happened after another unsanctioned outtake of electric energy by Tajikistan. The energy system created in Soviet times did not take into account the borders between the neighboring republics. As a result, the energy system of Tajikistan consisted of two parts connected with each other via the electric networks of Uzbekistan. This was why some regions of Uzbekistan were supplied with electricity by the Nurek hydropower plant situated in Tajikistan, while the electricity supplied to individual districts of Tajikistan was generated by Uzbek power plants. This mutual exchange of electric energy proceeded in accordance with contracts signed annually. Such system gave rise to constant complaints
and conflicts between the countries of the region which are unable to this day to find a mutually acceptable solution of the problem of using the energy potential of cross-border rivers. Uzbekistan's appeals to international organizations, the European Union among them, produced no result.
Uzbekistan has many claims on the joint use of hydro resources addressed to its regional neighbors, primarily Tajikistan. For one, Tashkent accused Dushanbe of violating the main principles and regime of work of the joint energy system, including violations of the agreed schedules of interstate transfers of electric energy, which led to big systemic breakdowns, power failures, unsanctioned take-offs of electricity from Uzbekistan, growing debt in payments for electric energy supplied by Tashkent, etc.
As a result, the leaders of Uzbekistan have decided to create the republic's own system of electric power supply independent of the Economic Cooperation Organization and operating on the basis of bilateral agreements with the countries of the region. The new power network ensured supply of electricity to the Ferghana Valley on the border with Kyrgyzstan and Surkhandarya region, and then in other regions of the republic. However, by doing so Uzbekistan has not left the entire energy supply system in Central Asia; it continued to be linked to the energy systems of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. It was only the Tajik republic power network that was isolated from the Uzbek system.
In these conditions Moscow's intention to finance the construction of hydropower projects in Tajikistan was received by Tashkent as a threat to national electric power production and supply. It should be noted that Kazakhstan supports Uzbekistan on this matter. Both countries insist on having international expert appraisal of these construction projects from the point of view of their ecological and
anthropogenic security. They also insist on the working out of a mutually acceptable mechanism of the joint use of the water and energy resources of the Central Asian region. This position of Tashkent and Astana is also supported by Turkmenistan, which withdrew from the Economic Cooperation Organization in 2003.
At the last Uzbek-Russian summit meeting the problem of the water resources was in the center of attention. Both parties expressed the need to agree with the neighboring countries and hold international expert appraisal when building hydropower projects on the cross-border rivers of the region. However, we shall see some time later how it will correlate with Russia's promise to help Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan build the Rogun and Kambaratin hydropower plants.
"Rossiya i noviye gosudarstva Evrazii," Moscow, 2011, No 3, pp. 80-85.
Vladimir Karyakin,
political analyst (Russian Institute of Strategic Studies)
INFORMATION-NETWORK WARS AND THEIR ROLE IN THE EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The beginning of the 21st century was characterized by the emergence of wars of a new type - information wars in which victory is achieved not by the destruction of the armed forces and economy of the enemy, but by the impact on its moral and psychological condition. If we adhere to the classification of wars from the point of view of the change of social formations, then, on the basis of B. Slipchenko's interpretation, we shall have the following list of the generations of wars:
