DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARMENIAN MILITARY INDUSTRYTHROUGH THE ANALYSIS OF SWOT-AHP Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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¿2 ^UU U. £npmUjmUp mUlmU mUmhumqpmnipjmU pUumpmnirn (¿mjmuinmh, bphmh)

vahagnp09@gmail.com

4^nnpn2 pmnhp* nmqtfmmpqjnLUmphpnLpjnLU, nmqtfmmpuntUmphpmlmU nmqtfmlmpntpjmU и^шЦпЫ!, SWOT-AHP, Stackholder IhpinL&nLpjntU, Power/Interest tfmmppgm:

Определение приоритетных стратегий развития военной промышленности Армении

посредством анализа SWOT-AHP

Погосян В. Р.

Институт экономики им. М. Котаняна НАН РА (Армения, Ереван)

vahagnp09@gmail.com

Резюме: В статье проведен комбинированный SWOT-AHP анализ для определения ключевых направленый развития военной промышленности Армении. С помощю этой методики вывдены две перспективных стратегий к которым была пременена матрица Power/Interest из анализа Stackholder.

Ключевые слова: военная промышленность, разработка военно-промышленной стратегии, SWOT-AHP, анализ Stackholder, Power/Interest матрица.

Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Государственного комитета по науке МОН РА в рамках научного проекта № 18T-5B047

Determination of priority strategies for the development of the Armenian military industry

through the analysis of SWOT-AHP

Poghosyan V. R.

M. Kotanyan Institute of Economics NAS RA (Armenia, Yerevan)

vahagnp09@gmail.com

Abstract: The article contains a combined SWOT-AHP analysis to identify key areas of development of the Armenian military industry. With the help of this technique, two promising strategies have been derived for which the Power / Interest matrix of Stackholder analysis has been applied.

Keywords: military industry, development of military-industrial strategy, SWOT-AHP, Stackholder analysis, Power/Interest matrix.

This work was supported by the RA MES State Committee of Science, in the ^frames of the research project № 18T-5B047

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Uhpp nmqtfmmpijnLUmphpnLpjmU Uhplm ppm-ip^mlp nL Uhpntdp nLunLtfUmuppnLpjntUUhpp umlmlmppl hU hmumUhjp mhqhlmmlntpjmU pmgmlmjntpjmU щшт^шппф Htump mUhpm-dh2mntpjnLU t mnmgmUnttf nmqtfmmpuntUm-phpmlmU qmpqmgtfmU Uhpntdp qUmhmmtfmU mjUipup hqmUml Ippmnhj, npp IhptfUlp шпЦш pmUmlmlmU mljm^Uhpp ipm h ]_mlm-

Регион и мир, 2019, № 3

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цЬпЬи 1999 р^шЦшЬ^д ЬрЦшЦ^ ^шЬшЦпгр-]шЬ шщршЬрЬЬр^ шрmшhшШшU ^ршЬпЫ! hшUршщЬmпLрJпl.UпLtf hшUШр^пLtf t qЬршЦш пщцпгр^ъЬ:

Zbtnmqmnmpjmb libpaqmpmbmpjiiLbp 22 пшqtfшшрqJпLUшpЬршЦшU hшtfшфр^ qшрqшдUШU пшqtfш^шрпLрJшU шпш^ЬшфЬ пщцпър^ЬЬЬрр пр^Ьрг. ЬщштшЦп^ Ьщш-mшЦшhшрUШр ЬЬр hшJшрhL п^прш^

hЬmшqпmпLрJшU SWOT1 Лрп^ ^пц^ф^Цшд-^шЬ ^птЬд^шЬ SWOT-AHP ^Ьр^пъЬпгрлшЬ ^рш: Uju шрщпгЬрпШ шпшЬЛ.-

Ьшд^шЬ umршmЬq^шЦшU ЬрЦпг. идЬЬшрЬЬрр h^Uf hU Ьшпш^ Stakeholder ^Ьр^пъЬпгрлшЬ Power/Interest иштр^дшф Цшппгд^шЬ hш-1шр, пр^ 2р2шЬшЦиЬрп^ pшgшhш]ш^hL t рършршЬупгр пшqUШ^шршЦшU идЬЬшр^ ^ршЦшЬшд^шЬ 2шhшqрq^n ЦпцЛр^ 2шhЬ-рр/шqqЬдпLрJпLUр прп2пц h^Ьршр^шU, ^Ь^р шпш^Ь hh2шшgUпLJ t пшqtfш^шршЦшU Ьш-

щшрhшфU pшрmЬq^ Цшппг.дпЫр:

SWOT-AHP г[Ьр1п1Ьпьр]пьЬ: Uju Uhmbgm-

l hUшрш^прпLpJпl.U t рЬЛЬппШ фпфп^ш-ЦшЬиЬр^и pUпLршqрпц дт.дшЬ^2ЬЬр^ ш^Ь-^шд^ш^р qпLqпрqЬL U

qUшhшmшЦшUUЬрр ршр&ршдЬЬ-

^п^ hш^шuш^пLp]пLUр (Ali

Gorener et al. 2012, Golden et al. 1989):

1 ЪЬрр^Ь U шртшр^и ЬшишЦшдо^шЬ

Лрпц^ш, пртЬц S - ЬЬрр^Ь п^Ьц ЦпцЛр, W - ЬЬрр^и pm.ji_ ЦпцЛр, O - шртшр^Ь Ьишрш^прпър]пъииЬр, T - шршшр^Ь ищшпЬш^рЬЬр: ЧЬрт^&ш-рлшЬ Ьщшшш^Ь t и^шЦЬ^ пъйЬц Циц^Ьр^ U Ьишрш^прпър]пъииЬр^ oqmшqпрЬUшUp рпг_]1_ ЦпцЛр^ ^Ьршд^шЬ rn. ищшпЬш^рЬЬр^ ¿hqпpшдJшh пшqUш4шршЦшh идЬЬшрЬЬр:

ишиЬш^пршцЬи ш^шЬцшЦшЬ SWOT ^Ьр-^пгЬпър^и dmJmbm^ рЬтр^шЬ qпрЬпUUЬр^U ршЬшЦшЦшЬ qUшhшшшЦшUUЬр ¿ЬЬ тр^пЫ!, пшт^ hUшрш^пр фЬЬ^пг. орфЦт^ рЬш-рпгр^и ЦшшшрЬ^ pmb^ hUшрш^пр идЬ-ЬшрЬЬр^ J^gU, ^иЦ SWOT - AHP ^UшЬqршд-

^и^^рр фшишшд^прЬЬ ^Ь^тЛ t: ЧЬр^пъЬп1р]шЬ иЬрп^шршЬп1р]п1и hЬшU]ШLU t SWOT ^Ьр^пъЬп1р]шЬ шпшЬЛ-^U qпрЬпUUЬр^ h^hршр^Ц Цшппъд^шЬр^ прп2пъ1 U SWOT шцршшЦ^ ЦшqJпLJ, SWOT ^ЛрЬрр hЬшш-qш]пLJ ишшЬпгЛ ЬЬ ^рЬЬд qUшhш-

шшЦшЬр, 1-^д 9-р ишЬ^цшЦп^ (Saaty, 1980) пршЬц ЦЬЬш р^Ьрр ЬЬрЦшлшдЬпШ ЬЬ qпрЬпU^ hшJЬJшш ^пш^ ЦшрЬпрп1р]п1ир, рЬ^ прпг^ 1-р ЬЬрЦшлшдЬпЫ! t hш^шuшр ЦшрЬпрп1р]п1и, 9-р ршдшрЛшЦ ЦшрЬпрпгр-]пгЬ: SпL]q р^ЬрЬ oqmшqпрЬ^пLtf ЬЬ Ьп1]Ь шршишршЬп1р]шир qUшhш-

шшЦшЬЬр шш^пъ hшJшр: 2ш^пр^ ршдр Ьп1]Ь ^^рпг^ рЬшр^шЬ qпрЬпUUЬр^ ^Ьрп^ш^ uЦqpпLUp^ hшJшЛ.Ш]U qпL]q шп qrnjq hшJЬJш-шп1р]пъии t: ишшд^шЬ qпрЬпUUhр^ Ц2^пUЬрр pшqJшцшшЦ^пLJ ЬЬ ^Jp^ hЬш Л.Ьш^п-рЬ^п^ ^Ьр^пъЬп1р]ши 2р2шЬшЦЬЬрпШ qпрЬпU^ ^Ьр^ЬшЦшЬ шрdЬpр:

22 Ш2^шрhшpшцшpшЦшU ^рш^^^шЦр U шЬшЬишЦшЬ шпшU&UшhшmЦпLрJпLUUhрр цш]ишЬш^прп1и ЬЬ пшqJшшрщпLUшpЬрпLр-]шЬ UЬрпLd^ qшрqшдJшU шUhршdЬ2шпLр-]пгЬр, ршЬ^ пр шпЦш ЬЬ рЬ пшqJш^шршЦшU U рЬ шЬшЬишЦшЬ qпрЬпUUЬр, ^шиЬш^прш-цЬи, пшqJшЦшU шршш^ршЬр^ ^шшшЦш-ршр^шЬ ипипщипЬ^шЬ U пшqJшшрq]пLUшpЬ-рпър]пъЬр шЬшЬип1р]шЬ qшрqшдJшU ^пЦп-^пш^^ ^шр^ЬЬ^пъ ^ИщЬршт^ ЦшрЬп-

рпър]пъЬр, ^и^р цшhшU2шрЦ U

hUшрш^прпLр]пLUUЬр ЦишЬцЬ^ шЬшЬип1р]шЬ ^иЬп^шд^пЬ п^прш^ hшJшр:

íhшqlIшшрI¡Jпibшpbрhtр■Jшb щпртр

шпшЬЛЬшЬшш^шр/шЬЬЬрр SWOT ^Ьр^пгЬпгрлпгЬр, hшUq^uшUшLп^ пшqJш^шршЦшU прп2пЫЬЬр^ рЬ^пъиишЬ qпрЬ^p, ЬЬрш^рпг^ t п^прш^ qшрqшдJшU идЬЬшрЬЬр^ пъиш^ J^U^ рпгЬ ^Ьр-

^п!Ьп1р]п1Ьр, hшрЦ ЬЬр hшJшрпLJ шЬ^рш-^шпЬш^ пшqJшшрщпLUшpЬрпLр]шU щпрт^ шпшU^UшhшшЦпLр]пLUUЬр^д ршЬ^и^Ь,

^шиЬш^пршцЬи п^прш^ qшрqшдJшU hш-

ümp mühpmdh2m üm^m^mjümüühppü U ü^mmm^ühppü:

Q-pmm^mü hhmmqnmnLpjni.üühpnLÜ (Keith Krause 1992a, Jürgen Brauer 1998) mnmü&ümg-^nrü t qmpqmgnq hp^pühpp mümhum^mü hmjhgm^mpqnrü nmqüm^mü ü2müm^nrpjmü mpmmqpnrpjmü püqqp^ümü 11 hümpm^np ^nt^, npnüp ümuüm^npm^hu püqqp^nrü hü ühp^p^mfc nmqüm^mü mpmmqpmüpp mh^-üp^m^mü u^mump^nrüpg üpüU odmüqm^nq tl_h^mpnümjpü üpgngühpp mpmmqpnrpjnrü U/^mü uh^m^mü R&D hümpm^npnrpjni.üühpp püqjmjüümü hm2^pü jpmpdhp nmqüm^mü mh^üp^mjp mpmmqpnrpjnrü: Cüq npnrü üp 2mpp hp^pühpnrü ^upmjhL, bqp^mnu, Züq-^mummü) nmqümmpqjnrümphpnrpjmü njnpmp nLunLÜümuppnrpjnrüühpp gnrjg hü mmjpu, np hp^pühpp mju n|npmnrü mn^m mümhum^mü ühpnrdp qmpqmgnrüp ^mpnq hü u^uhj_ ^hpn-ü2jmL 11 ^nqhppg jnrpmpmüynrppg, hph mn-^m hü hmümqmmmu^mü qpmmmh^üp^m-^mü U mpqjnrümphpm^mü hhüphp: ^mpnq hüp mpÄ.mümqphi_ ümU, np ühpnrdp qmpqmgümü ^mpUnp üm^mqmjümü t nmqümmpqjnrümph-pm^mü mpmmqpmüpp ü^mmümüp mpmmppü ^mhmügmp^pü qnrqpüpmg ühpppü ^mhmü-gmp^p mn^mjnrpjnrüp, püp hümpm^npnrp-jnrü t rnmjpu hp^mpmdmü^hm ^mhmügmp^ m^mhn^h pü^hu mnmü&pü mpmmqpmmh-um^ühpp mjü^hu tL üpmüg mh^üp^m^mü u^mump^ümü ü^mmümüp: Upqjnrüpnrü, nmq-ümmpqjnrümphpm^mü hmümjppühpp hümpm-^npnrpjnrü hü ummünrü ^p^mmhL mpmmq-pmüpp üpm^nppü pmdpü pü^ünq hmummmntü fcm^uhpp, ^p^mm^nrü t ümU njnpmpü spm-ümqp^nq ^hmm^mü unipupqpmühpp mühpm-dh2snLp]ntüp: ^hU ühpppü ^mhmügmp^p nmqümmpqjnrümphpnLpjmü ühpnrdp qmpqmgümü mühpmdh2s ^mjümü t, mjünrmühümjüp^ mpmmppü 2nr^mjniü Ü2mm^hu üpgm^gmjpü mnm^hLnrpjnrüühp ^mh^mühinr hmümp ^mpUnp t ommphp^pjm hmümqnp&m^gnrp-jnrüp (np^hu mh^ünjnqpm^mü U qpmhjppp mpmüu^hpp hpüüm^mü mqpjnrp) U qpsmhh-mmqnmm^mü U ^npÄ.m^nüumpnL^mnpmjpü m2^mmmüpühpp ^pümüum^npnrüp: Cüq npntü, ommphp^pjm hmümqnp&m^gnrpjnrüp ^mpnq t mpmmhmjm^hL üp pmüp hqmüm^n^. mnmgm^np mh^ünjnqpmühpp hpümü ^pm üm^mq&^mfc nmqüm^mü mpmmqpmüpp ^n-

^mügnrü, npp mh^ünjnqpm^mü mnmü&üm-hmm^nrpjnrüühpp pmgmhmjmnrüp pnLjL t mmjpu mjü ^p^üoppüm^h]_, U mpmmqpm^mü mh^ünjnqpmühpp ^n^mügnrü, npp hpümü ^pm hümpm^np t uh^m^mü mpmmqpmüp pnqmp^h]_, npp mh^üp^m^mü hmm^müp2-ühpp ^qhpmqmüghü oppqpümipü, U mpsm-qpm^mü U qpmm^np&mpmpm^mü müpnqg 2qpmjp mpmümqpnrü, npp hümpm^npntpjntü t rnmjpu uh^m^mü mpmmqpmüp üm^mqbhL:

^hpmphpntü t nmqümmpqjntümphpnt-pjmü n^npmp qmpqmgümü ü^mmm^ühppü, m^m nmqümmpqjntümphpntpjmü n^npmp qmpqmgümü 2mpdp^ ntdp ^mphjp t pmdmüh^ hphp hpüüm^mü ^üphpp (Jürgen Brauer 1998, Rafal Wisniewski 2012)'

• ftmqüm^mpm^mü - nmqüm^mü mpmmq-pmüpp ühpünrbnrüp hp^ppü ^m^^mbnrpjmü ühg t qünrü qinpm]_ ppmqmp^nrpjnrüühppg, mümhum^mü ^mmdmüpgngühppg, tüpmpqn-ühppg (Franko-Jones, 1992): Hhpnü2]m^ ^üqppg ^nrum^hinr hmümp hp^pühpü pümpnrü hü ühpünr&ümü ^n^mppüümü nmqüm^mpnrp-jnrü (Qpümummü, bqp^mnu): ftmqüm^mpm-^mü mnnrün^ ü^mmm^mhmpümp t ümU nmqümmpqjnrümphpm^mü hmüm^ppp mp-mmqpmüpp ^¡müpp müpnqgm^mü gp^Lp u^mump^nrüp:

• Sümhum^mü - ftmqümmpqjnrümphpnLpjmü nLnpmp qmpqmgümü mpqjnrüpnrü mnmgmgnq qpm^mü tpumhpümLühpp ümpq^mjpü ^m^p-mmLp pmpA.p npm^m^npnrü, qpmm^mü U mh^üp^m^mü m^müqnrjpühp U mjjü, (Wulf 1987, Ball 1988, Brauer 1991a) ^pm^nrunrü hü mümhunrpjmü pün^mgpnü hmm^mbp qmpqmgntüp 2mq^m^hL nmqümmpqjnrümphpnLpjmü hhm: ÜLnpmp mpmmqpmüpp ü^mmümüp pp^ ph 2mm ^mjnrü ^mhmügmp^p, npp m^hjp pp^_ t mmmmü^nrü pmü püm^münü mümhum^mü gp^Lhpp üh^ mjL ^mpUnp mümhum^mü ^pmü t hmüqpumünrü:

ZZ nmqiimmpijjnLhmphpnipjmh ninpinp SWOT rlhpinLbnipjnih

Uü^n^hjn^ ^hpnqpjmip ^mpnq hüp hq-pm^mgühi, np ZZ mümhunrpjmü nmqümmp-qjnrümphpm^mü ühpnrdp qmpqmgümü hüm-pm^npnrpjnrüühpp qümhmmhinr hmümp müh-pmdh2m hüp hmümpnrü SWOT ^hpLnrbnrpjmü mpqjnLüpnrü ^mmmu^mühi hhmUjmi hmpgh-ppü'

Urjmuiuli 1: iiiuqifiuiupiymhiuphprnp-jiuh qiupqiugifiuh SWOTqnpbnhhhpp ZZ~ni.il

Strenghts (S) Weaknesses (W)

S1: Qupqugufr ICT huJulupq, S2: ^hpiliUqUlnr tUhpqhmplijp qupqugJuU rnhd^hp, S3: SS bunu]nLp]nLUUhpp pip&p upIJnL.UulhmnLpJnLU, S4: UhpppU lihiU^iplp pip&p JulupIul, S5: U2^umulup^hpp gibp JulupIul, S6: FUnligpnU Uhpntdp unlu]nLp]nLU (GII) W1: UiuUilnp R&D UhpqpntdUhpp gibp JulupIul, W2: On^^-hpp gibp JulupIul, W3: ^UdhUhpiliU IppntpjiU gibp npil, W4: ipUiUuiliU 2nLli]p phpqupquglmfrnLpJnLh W5: ^ulpmuluqpUlubnLp]uU gibp JulupIul

Oppotunities (O) Threats (T)

O1: fcUSU, U^Z 2nuliUhpp hiuiUhipnt^jntU, O2: fcU uungugJuU lU]JuUuqpp, O3: ^UnligpnU ppqUhu uluhint U liphint huJhJumuluU iil hUipilnpnt^jntUUhp T1: UpmuhuUJuU 2nLlu]nLJ prnp&p JpgulgnLp]nLU, T2: UpsifpU lipsfp prnp&p l2pn, T3: Upqpigpijp puguuuluU urniqn, T4: Uhl Jumulupuppg lu^lubnLp]nLU, T5: Q•hnpurupuluU ppilp^il

1. UisUi^hi, ph qmpqmgJmU pU^ipup ughUipp hUrnprn^npnLpjntU lsi n^iqni-jUu inL&hi ijU sUshuiliU U nmqtfm^mpmЦmU UцmmmЦUhpp, npnUp pUli hU nrnqJrnrnp-IjnLUmphpnLp]mU ninpsp pppu^ulnpJuU h^JpntJ;

2. UnrnU&UrnUghi_ ijU qnp&nUUhpp, npnUp lipnr hU ^piUhi nuqJuupIjnLUuphpuluU ^^^^pp UhpppU lihiUgiplp:

3. ^Uihimh^ qpsiliU U rnpuntUrnphprn-liU hhUpp U rnnrngrnp^hL nuqJuupIjnLUuph-piliU hiJiL^p^ qipqigliU oispHi hrrnUi^:

Uju hipghppU ^mu^iU^m. hrnJrnp UцmmmЦmhmpJmp t Ui^ Uhp^ijigphi hUp iliU^^U SWOT lhpinL&nLpjni.U ZZ niq-JmmpIJnLUmphpnLp]mU ninpsp hiJip (Sh u Urjnturn^ 1):

SWOT-^hpinLbntpjiU pirrnip^^UhpU pU-splhi hU fiUi^^U gntgiU^2Uhp^ hpiiU

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

¿lujiummuli ^"liulijuu Iliiiiuiiintiui ^"^puiuuiuili

^"Pupmjtt ^"Uqipiijiu ^™'Lnp2tiuiiiii|im^™iyi'

^"Uliiiquiuimp ^ Pnippliui nilyiuiliiiui Ujyiptgmii

O-diuiqiuinljhp 2: ^¿iiupiujph h^lh^nnLifSZS biuniujnLp-jmhhhpp iupiniuhiuhifiuh mhu. zl2pn

lpi hrnJhJrnmhinl ZZ gnLgiUp2Uhpp UpUhi-jiU blpnmjp hhs^nphpiijpU hplpUhpp (ftnLumummU, ntlpi^Ui, Phimntu, Uniin-lpi, UipphgiU, HprnumrnU) U ^npp pig mUmhunLpjntU ntUhgnr hplpUhpp hhs (F'upi-jhi, Zl. ^nphi, UpUqi^nip, Clhjgip^i, $pU-nUi^i): UrjnLuilnLj Uhplijiglib hU ijU SWOT qnpbnUUhpp, npnUp pilipiphinl lhpnU2]rni mjHUpU LiliqnLjUu pUntpiq-pntJ hU ZZ sUshunLpjiU nmqJmmpIJnLUm-phpntpjiU ninpsp Uhpnidp qipqigJiU hUi-pilnpntpjntUUhpp, pU^ihu UiU Uhplijig-UntJ hU ijU tlqnqhU U tUqnqhU qnpbnUUhpp, npnUp iqintJ hU ZZ mpIJnLUmphpmlmU hhUpp JpgntUilntpjiU lpi: 1-5 q&uцuslhpUh-pntJ in^pli^ hU hmJmqmmmu^mUm-pip omrnphplpjrn nLrrilp UhpipnLiUhpp qnts Uhphnupp, SZS &unuJnLp]nLUUhpp ip-shuilipip l2prcp l^ipij^U hi2lhl2nntJ, rnqJiliU fci^uhpp shui-lipip l2prcp Z"L>U-p Jhg, qnts U^qpigpiU, qpsuhhsuqnsuluU U ^npArnlnUuspnil-

Qdimyiuinlhp 1: Owiuphplpjiu nuiquilp UhpqpnLifhhpp qnuis hhphnup (ifipq. qpiif)

snpmjpU fcm^uhpp shum^mpmp l2pnp ZbU-p Jhg1: FU^hu hpUntJ t qfrm^ms^hp 1-pg ^hpgpU smppUhppU ZZ-ntJ qpmUg^hj t OHhb-hpp pm^m^mU gm&p Jm^mpqml, p^U pp hhpppU U2mUmlnL.J t, np sh^Unjnqpm^mU spmUu^hpp ZZ-ntJ pUpmUntJ t pm^m^mU qmUqmq hmUqhgUhjn^ hp^pntJ mn^m Ujnt-pmmsh^Up^m^mU hhUpp pmpnjm^mU U $p-qp^m^mU Jm2^m&nLpjmU: UpsmppU impspp pmpAp shum^mpmp l2pnp ZbU-p ImqJntJ2, ^hpgpU smppUhppU qpmUg^mfc Jpqpmgpmjp pmgmum^mU umjqnU, ntqhqUhpp mpsmhnupp U mpsmppU impspp u^mump^JmU fcm^uh-pp hm^hymj ^UqppUhp hU ushq&ntJ hp^pntJ nmqJm^mpm^mU nLqqnLpjntUUhpp qmpqmg-JmU hmJmp: Ujntu ^nqJpg Uhp^m m2^mp-hmpmqmpm^mU ppm^p^m^ntJ impsmqp-t nmqJm^mU fcm^uhpp mpqjni.Um^hsnL-pjmU pmpApmgJmU ^Uqpp: UpUUntjU dmJm-Uml ZZ-ntJ mqpUspmUpmjpU tjhlspmtUhp-qpmjp mpsmqpntpjmU shJ^hpp m^hjmgnL-Jp, SZS njnpsp mpqpm^mUmgntJp U 2mpnL-Um^m^mU qmpqmgntJp, pU^hu UmU SS Jmu-UmqhsUhpp imspmusntJp ImpUnp pmqhp hU sUshuntpjmU pUn^mgpnU hms^m&p qmp-qmgJmU ^npA.p ^ntsm^JmU U ZZ-ntJ nmqJm-mpqjntUmphpnLpjmU qmpqmgJmU hhUpp lm-jmgJmU hmJmp, pul SZS qmpqmgmb hUpm^m-nntg^m&pp mn^mjntpjntUp pm^m^mU jm^ hUmpm^npnLpjntU t hp^m^p ^mUmlntpjmU nmqJm^mU mpsmqpmUpp mpsmhmUJmU hUmpm^npnLpjntUUhpp pUqjmjUJmU hmJmp: Um^mjU ihsp t hm2^p mnUhL UmU, np Zm-jmusmUp mn^m nhuntpuUhpp impmqmjntJ ¿p ^mpnq qUmjpU JpgmlgntpjntU bm^mLhL 2nt^rnjp ^n2np ^mqmgnqUhpp, ntusp, njnp-sp qmpqmgJmU nmqJm^mpntpjmU hpJpntJ ipsp LpUp «npml qUp qpJmg» phqpup ihsp t LpUp: Um^mjU sUshuntpjmU JpmjU Jp njnpsp qmpqmg^m&nLpjntUp pm^m^mU ¿t npm^jmj U Unpmpmpm^mU sh^UnjnqpmUhpp Um^mqpfc-JmU, mpsmqpJmU U/^mJ mpqpm^mUmgJmU hmJmp: ZbU-p Jh<? OZO^U fcm^uhpp gmbp Jm^mpqm^U mju ^mUm^mphp qj^m^np ^UqppUhppg t: ZmJmqmmmu^mU q&m^ms-Ihppg hpUntJ t, np mju gntgmUp2n^ JhUp

1 ^bm^m^tpUtpp qtUtpmg^mb tU data.worldbank.org tl_-

Um]Ppg

2 Sbqb^mm^nLpjnLUp t ZZ ^p^. DmnmjnLpjmU tl_

^mjppg (www.armstat.am)

qpgntJ hUp qmpqmgmb hp^pUhppU: ^hsm^mU U JmuUm^np O-ZO^U bm^uhpp gmbp Jm^mp-qm^p pp pmgmum^mU mqqhgntpjntUU t pnq-UntJ sh^UnjnqpmUhpp mpqpm^mUmgJmU ^pm hmUqhgUhjn^ ^m^psmLmqpU^mbntpjmU mUUm^mqh^ gmbp Jm^mpqm^p: QUmjmb mjU hmUqmJmUppU, np ZZ nmqJmmpqjntUmphpnL-pjmU njnpsntJ ^m^psmLmqpU^mbntpjmU gntgmUp2p hm2^mp^ ¿p ^msmp^hj, um^mjU, ntuntJUmupphLn^ mjj hp^pUhpntJ ^msmp^mb hm2^mp^Uhpp hUmpm^np t usmUmj ppm^p-^m^p Jnsm^np U^mpmqppp: UmuUm^npm-^hu, ftntumusmUp ^m2s^mUm^mU-mpqjnt-Umphpm^mU ^nJ^hpup hmJmp ^msmp^nq ^hpLnLbnLpjnLUUhpntJ3 U2^ntJ t, np mpqjntUm-phpm^mU ^nJ^jhpup ^nqJpg oqsmqnpb^nq sh^UnjnqpmUhpp 70%-p ntUp 100% Jm2^m-bnLpjntU: CUq npntJ, mUqmJ ftntumusmUntJ mn^m t mjq pmqmjp pmpJmgJmU hmJmp mUhpmdh2s ^pUmUum^mU mqpjntpUhpp uqntpjntU hp^nt hpJUm^mU qms^mnn^

1. ftUZ mJpnqg qnpbnLUhnLpjntUU ntqqnpq-^ntJ U ^hpmhu^^ntJ t ^hsntpjmU ^nqJpg osmphp^pjm pU^hpntpjntUUhppU qntpu pnq-Uhjn^ mpsmqpntpjmU ^pnghupg,

2. ftntumusmUp sUshum^mU ^mnntg^mbpp hpJU^ntJ t Um^pmmpqjntUmhmUnq Jp pmUp ^n2np pU^hpntpjntUUhpp ^pm, p^p ¿p Uqmu-sntJ JmuUm^np UhpqpntJUhpp UhphnuppU qh^p nmqJmmpqjntUmphpnLpjmU njnps:

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^^"¿uijuitiuiuiU UqjipbguiU Ph|umiii_ii

^^"t'upuijtL ^inptui

ill UJiliquitump nLl^prnJiliui

O-dmiqmmljhp 3: ZbU-rn.ilnmqilmljmh dmjuuhpp shu. l2pn

bJmU ^UqppUhppg ^ntum^hLnt Uqmsm-ZZ nmqJmmpqjntUmphpnLpjmU njnpsp qmpqmgJmU nmqJm^mpntpjntUp ihsp t

3 Michael Stocker: "The Russian Defence Industrial Base: A Critical Assessment" - 2012

Регион u Mup, 2019, № 3

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cíbulqulnlhp 4: S^h^U ilppph qnLS ppigpi (2010-2017pp)

hpiUlp Uhpnid niUhgnr pi-

rupugpuluU U2uUulnLp]uU rniprnUpUhpp U 5unu]nLp]nLUUhpp ushrbHU lpi, npnUp ^nqum.^ hUipilnp lipUp inli^qigUhi nuqJuupIjnLUuphpuluU huJulppnLJ: Uju huJushpusnLJ husluU2uluU t, np qinpii pUnligpnU pUihpnLi ZuJuusuUp qpirhg-UnLi t 66-pi hnppqnUrnlrnUp qpirhgUhip, pU^p iil hpip lipnr t h^^uiU^ n^H-upIJnLUuphpnLp]uU ninpsp hhs 2urluц-lib qupqugJuU hiiip, piUp np UnLjU qUuhusuluUp huJuA.uJU ZuJuusuUp 2is ¿p qpgnLi pphU ins liUqUib hplpUhppU U huJuqusuu^uU hu]hgulupqp unlu]nLp-jiU lip^um-i lipnr t ninpsijpU qip-q^^U prnp&p ipunLUpUhp qpiUghi: Ui^n-^hinl SWOT ^pin^^^^U iniUipU qnp-bnUUhpp UlupuqpnLp]nLUp giU^Um.^ hUp miU^-UigU^ ihl iji lipUnp ^Uqpp t pUdh-UhprnlrnU lppnLpjiU gibp npilp U prnpApn-pil liiphpp uululnLp]nLUp: Pigmm-p-jrnip SS ninpsp, ijushr qpiUglib gibp U ipiUpg ibiUglnr gibp u2^usulupA.hpp upIjnLUpnLJ, Zu]uusuUp n^ UprnjU lnpgphg pUdhUhpiliU piqiU, ijiU ¿lupnrugul pip^npil ^pup^i^ iii-hnlhi Unp irnsprnuslnr liiphppU:

ZhsUipip unu2Uuhhpp t UiU n^H-upIJnLUuphpnLp]nLUp huJuqusuu^uU liiphpnl uцuhnlhlnL ^Uippp, npp inLbnLi-Uhppg ihlU, pihi, lipnr t ipUhi purupu-gpiliU uhlsnpp hhs ilspl huJuqnp-bilgnLpjnLUp:

SWOT-AHP lhplnl¿nlp■Jnlh]l UrjnLuil 2-nLi Uhplijiglib hU SWOT ^iphpp huJhJusuluU qUuhusuluUUhpp pus AHP u^hUjp: ^upqnLpjuU huJup

Uhplijiglib JusppgUhpnLJ lipippnl U2lib hU ujnLUhpnLi U2lib qnpbnUUhpp qhpulu]nLp]nLUp snrhpnLi U2libUhpp U^sHip, pul uUhpnl hulunulp4: Usig-lib iisppgp UnpJulnpJuU5 ipum-Upm-i inLpu hU phplhi SWOT hu]suUp2p pUq-hiUnLp l2pnUhpp:

LnLjU ulqpnLUpnl Uhplijiglhi hU UiU

JnLpupuU¿JnLp ^ipmi pUiqpllib ^n^n^i-

liUUhpp huJhJusuluU qUuhusuluUUh-pp: UpunLUpnLi, SWOT ^iphppg iihUiUhb shuulupup l2p^p usighi t W ^mipp (0.44), pul uJhUu^nppp, O ^nLipp (0.08): UnrnUApU ^phpn^ pUiqpllib qnpbnUUhpp huJhJusuluU qUuhusuluUUhpp gnLjg hU siipu, np huJhJusupup lipUnp qnpbnU-Uhp hU S ^ippU lisliUnr nuqJuluU U pUnligpnU ^^^^pp U^sHip <«L>hp-ppU i^rnU^^^ pipA.p JulupIul»-p U W ^ippU lisliUnr U2lib ninpsUhp nLrrlnr «Osrnphplpjrn nLrrilp UhpipnLiUhpp gibp JulupIul»-p:

O U T fcipp qnpbnUUhppg mi^i ihb li-pUnpnLpjnLU nLUhU O fcipp «pUnligpnU ppq-Uhu uluhinL unulhl piphUiius цu]JuU-Uhp» U T fcipp «UpsippU lipspp prnpAp shuilip l2pn Z^U-nLi» gnLgiUp2Uhpp, pU^p ip lnripg hUpuIpnLJ t rnpsrnppU Uhpipnr-UhppU UhpqpilhinL hUupulnpnLp]nLUUhp, ijnLu lnripg lipnr t uuhJuUu^ulhl ih-

4 bpt U qnpbnUp q^il^n^ t P qnpbnUpU 3 uUquJ, rnqi P qnpbnUp lupUnpnup]nuUp U-p UlniH^ lhuluuuplp 1/3-p:

5 'bnpJulnpJuU Ulumulnl hu2lupllbl t qnpbnUUhpp mbuulupup l2pnB hmJmqmmmu^mU u]nuU]ulUbpnuJ U lhpglhi ]nupupuU¿]nup snrp ip2pUp np^tu pUihrnUprnglrnb l2pn:

cíbulqulnlhp 5: ZbU-imi Q-ZO^lU bijuuhpp shu. l2pn

Uijmumlj 2: SWOT Juilphpp hmiíhiímsml¡mh qhmhmsml¡mhhhpp pus AHP ujuhilmjp

SWOT fornip S W O T

S i i/3 4 7 0.32

W 3 i 3 4 0.44

O i/4 i/3 i i/5 0.08

T i/7 i/4 i/5 i 0.i6

Uijmumlj 3: S Juilpp qnpónhhhpp hmiíhiímsml¡mh qhmhmsml¡mhhhpp pus AHP ujuhilmjp

Strenghts S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 ^npfcnhp lmpUnpnipjni.h

S1 i 2 3 i/4 4 7 0.23

S2 '/2 i 3 i/3 3 5 0.i7

S3 i/3 i/3 i i/3 i/4 i/3 0.06

S4 4 3 3 i 3 6 0.36

S5 V i/3 4 i/3 i i/3 0.09

S6 i/7 i/5 3 i/6 3 i 0.09

Uipmuml 4: W Juilpp qnpónhhhpp hmiíhiímsml¡mh qhmhmsml¡mhhhpp pus AHP ujuhilmjp

Weaknesses W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 ^npànhp

lmpbnprn.pjni.h

W1 i i/2 4 5 6 0.32

W2 2 i 5 7 3 0.40

W3 V i/5 i i/4 i/5 0.05

W4 i/5 i/7 4 i i/3 0.08

W5 i/6 i/3 5 3 i 0.i5

Uipmumlj 4: ОJuilpp qnpónhhhpp hmiíhiímsml¡mh qhmhmsml¡mhhhpp pus AHP ujuhilmjp

Opportunities Ol O2 O3 Qnp&nhp lmpbnpnip]rn_h

Ol i 2 i/3 0.i9

O2 i/2 i i/5 0.27

O3 3 5 i 0.54

Uipmuml 5: T Juilpp qnpónhhhpp hmiíhiímsml¡mh qhmhmsml¡mhhhpp pus AHP ujuhilmjp

Threats T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 O-np&nhp

lmpbnprn.pjrn.h

T1 i i/2 i/3 2 2 0.i7

T2 2 i 6 4 4 0.4i

T3 3 i/6 i i/5 i/5 0.i2

T4 / i/4 5 i 2 0.i6

T5 / i/4 5 i/2 i 0.i3

sm^mü hüpmlmnntg^mbpühpp mpqpm^m-ümgimüü пщц^шЬ ühpqpntimj pü hümpm^n-pntpj ntüühpp1:

Usmg^mè hmJhimsm^mü qümhmsm-lmüühpp шtfфпфtfшü mpqj ntüpühpp mpsm-

i ^hsm^mü щшpшpp uщшuшplnlJpg hhsn pj ni^h-smjpü ip2ngühpp uшhJшüшфшlnLpjnLÜp щшpшqшj nrJ mnm2ümj pü ЩLШÜ t phpnii lmpámdmi^hs süshum-lmü máp шщшhn4Jшüp üщшuшnI pü

ümjumq&hpp, pul lшщpшшL ühp^pni.Jühpp i^rni hü

gn^mb hü Иц пшшЦ 6-ntü: ü usmg-

^шЬ s^ mjühpp 22 nmqümmpqj ntümphpntp-j mü qmpqmgimü q^m^np ^n^püqnsühppg ihlp ühplm ümlpnsüshum^mü ppm^pám^ü t: Htusp, SWOT ^hpLntbnLpj mü mpqj ntüpnLÜ qhühpmg^ni uspmshqpmühpp щhшp t mnm-2pü hhpppü пъцц^шЬ Lpühü pün^mgpnü qmp-qmgimüp üщшuшпq osmphplpj ш ühpqpntü-

Uiyntuuili 6: SWOT-AHP miiipnip ujuhilm

SWOT forn.Jp SWOT ^npbnh Ornpbnhp ^mpbnpnLpjnLh Chqhmhpm^mh ^mpknpni.pjm.U

Strenghts 0.32 S1 0.23 0.07

S2 0.17 0.05

S3 0.06 0.02

S4 0.36 0.12

S5 0.09 0.03

S6 0.09 0.03

Weaknesses 0.44 W1 0.32 0.14

W2 0.40 0.18

W3 0.05 0.02

W4 0.08 0.04

W5 0.15 0.07

Opportunities 0.08 O1 0.19 0.02

O2 0.27 0.02

O3 0.54 0.04

Threats 0.16 T1 0.17 0.03

T2 0.41 0.07

T3 0.12 0.02

T4 0.16 0.03

T5 0.13 0.02

Uhpp Uhpqpm^JmUp q^nprn^ Jpgm^gntpjmU ^mjJmUUhpntJ: Uh^ mjL umpmmhqpm^mU nLiintpjntU ^mpni t hmUqpumUmL nmqJmmp-qjntUmphpnLpjmU n^nprnnLU ^npp Unpmpmp pU^hpntpjni.UUhpp qnpbntUhntpjmU hmJmp hqmumm^np ^mjJmUUhpp umhibntJp:

ZpJU^hLn^ ^hpnU2]iL nLiinLpjntUUhpp U SWOT ^hpLntbntpjmU Jjntu qnpbnUUhpp ^pm t mnmU&UmgUhL ZZ nmqJmmpqjntUm-phpntpjmU Uhpntdp qmpqmgJmU hhsUjmL nLiinLpjntUUhpp

ftmqJm^mU ntdhpp ^mnm^mpJmU (mUmhum-^mU, Lnqpurnp^, nmqJm^mU) mJpnigm^mU m^mnJmmmgniJ hpJU^mb ^npp SS pU^hpnt-pjntUUhpp ^niJpg mnmgmp^ni mnmUApU LnLbntJUhpp ^pm: SmpqmgJmU mju^pup nmqJm^mpntpjmU

1. mnmgpU ^nqU pUqqp^ntJ t S1, S2, S3, S5 U O3 qnpbnUUhpp U Jpm^mb t W1, W3 qnpbnUUhpp JmuUm^p ¿hqnpmgJmUp U T3, T4 qnpbnUUhpp mqqhgntpjntUUhpp pnqmgJmUp (0.07+0.05+0.02+0.03+0.04-0.14-0.02-0.02 0.03=01): UpmqpmjpU m^mhn^JmU UJmU LnLbntJUhpp mUhpmdh2snLp]ntU ^m pU^hu qmpqmgni,

1 SWOT-AHP Jhpn^mpmUnLpjmU mpq]ni.UpniJ ummg^ni nmqJm^mpnLpjnLUp hmJmp^nLJ t pU^ntUt^p, hph qpm-^mU U2mUn^ qnpbnUUhpp ^2pnUtpp qnLJmpJmU 2Unphp^ hUmpm^np t mnU^mqU ^nJ^hUumgUhi_ pmgmum^mU U2mUn^ qnpbnUUhpp mq^hgntpp^Up: Hmrnp pU^niLhip nmqJm^mpnLpjmU U^mqmqnLjU qniJmpmjpU mpdhpp ^mpni t LpUt^ 0:

mjU^hu tL qmpqmgmb hp^pUhpniJ ntump hp^pnpq ^nqniJ, oqmmqnpbhLn^ S3, S5, S6, 01, 02 qnpbnUUhpp pU^hu UmU ^hmm^mU mgm^gntpjntUp, ^np&h, mpsmhmUhL usmg-^mb bpmqpmjpU LnLbntJUhpp: Uju himUm^p ^ppmnntpjntUp mump^mUmpmp ^hmUqhgUp hp^pntJ qnpbni SS pU^hpntpjntUUhpp ^n2n-pmgJmUp Unp hUmpm^npntpjntU pU&hnhLn^ ^pUmUum^mU 2nL^mUhpp qmpqmgJmU hmJmp U LnrbhLn^ mpmmppU Jpgm^gntpjmU ^Uqppp (T1) (ftmqJm^mpntp]nLU 1: 0.02+0.02+0.03+0.02+0.02-0.04-0.03=0.02): LJm-Ummp^ nmqJm^mpntpjmU mp^jntUm^hmnt-pjmU hmJmp ^hmm^mU mgm^gntpjmUp qnt-qmhhn mUhpmdh2s t UmU qnpbni ^pUmUum-^mU 2nr^mUhpp mn^mjntpjntU (W4): Htump mju nmqJm^mpntpjmU hp^pnpq ^nqntJ mUhpmdh2s 4lpUp ^pUmUum^mU 2nt^mUhpp m^mp^mgJmUp U^mumhL hm2^p mnUhLn^ mUmhuntpjmU mju n.npmpg pfcni mnmUAUm-hmm^ntpjntUUhpp

• hp^pniJ qnjmgmb hp^mp ^nihpp nti-inpqhL pmdUmjpU mpdhpiphpp, qmprnmrnnJ-uhpp AhnpphpJmUp ^mp^mjpU^nt^mjm^mU npu^p ihilni ^hmm^mU hpm2^ppUhpp ^ppmnJmJp2,

HLnpmmjpU mnmU&Umhmm^ni.p]ni.UUhppg hLUhjn^ mnmU&pU opbUu^pm^mU ^mpqm^npni.JUhpp 2Unphp^ ^mpbLp t ^mUnUm^mpqhL pmdUbmppm^mU pU^hpntp-jn^UUbpp npn2ntJUhpp 4pm mq^ni pmdUhlmup A.hnpphp-UmU qnpbmppUhpp:

• UhpqUhL pUn^mgpnU Imni^hpUhpp 2P2mUmnntp] mU Jh^mUpqJhp Unp StartUp qmqm^mpUhpp mnm^Umj pU ^pUmUum^np-JmU mqmhn^JmU Uqmsm^n^,

• hp^mpmdmJ^hs hms^màniJ ÀqshL pUshqplhLni Jpgmqqmj pU mpdhpqphpp 2nL-^mUhppU U/^mJ bUSU 2pgmUm^UhpntJ mnm-2mp^h]_ niUhUmL JpmuUm^mU mpdhpqphpp 2nt^m:

2. ftmqJmmpqj niUmphpnipj mU n^nprnntJ ^msmp^nq qhsm^mU qUniJUhpp Jpgngn^ pppm^m^nplmfc qmpqmgUhL pUn^mgpnU Um-^mAhnUntpj niUUhpp - £mUp np, nmqJmmp-qj ntUmphpm^mU mpsmqpmUpp U^msJmJp qmhmUgmp^p Jh& Jmup pmlmpmplniJ t UhpJniMmU hm2lpU, mqm mj u n^nprnntJ UhpJniMmU ^n^mppUntJp mpqpm^mU Jmp-smhpm^hp t: Uj u mnU^ntpj mJp hpJUm^mU ^UqppUhpU hU ^mqpsmLmqpUlm&ntpj mU gm&p Jm^mpqm^p (W5) U Jmpq^mj pU ^mqp-mm^p gm&p npm^p (W3), npnUp ^mph^p t hmqpmhmphL hmJmqmmmu^mU pU^hpntp-j niUUhppU ^mqphpp IhpmqmspmusJmU U ^mqpsmL UhpqpniJUhp ^mmmph^nt Uqmrnm-^n^ mpsnUj mL qmj JmUUhpp ushq&JmU U hmp^mj pU mpsnUnipj niUUhpp spmJmqpJmU ^mUmqmphn^ (pmU^mj pU hpm2^ppUhp, lh-pm^pUmUum^npnq ^mqJm^hpqntpj niUUhp/ UhpqpniJmj pU $nUqhp): UmuUm^npmqhu, oqsmqnp&hLn^ S2, S3, S5, S6, O2, O3 qnp&nU-Uhpp, ¿mj musmUniJ hUmpm^np t hpJUhL nmqJmmpqj ntUmphpm^mU ^mushp, npniJ hUmpm^np ^ipUp mqmhnlh nmqJmmpqj ni-Umphpm^mU mpmmqpmUpp mJpnqgm^mU 2qpmU pUdhUhpm^mU ^ppm^mU ^hUspnU-Uhppg JpU^U osmphp^j m pU^hpntpj niUUhpp JmuUm^j niqhp: (frmqtfmlwpnipj niU 2:

0.05+0.02+0.03+0.03+0.02+0.04-0.07-0.03=0.05): HhpnU2j mL hp^ni. nmqJmlmpntpj niUUhpp

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3 J.L.Suarez, I.M.Alba - "An exercise in Stakeholder Analysis for a hypothetical offshore wind farm in the Gulf of Cadix", 2007

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Stakeholder analysis report: "Central Asia Nexus dialogue project: fostering water, energy and food

security nexus dialogue and multi-sector investment" -Working document, Almaty 2017

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Ali Gorener et al. "Application of combined SWOT and AHP: A case study for manufacturing firm" -Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 58 ( 2012 ) 1525 - 1534

Golden et al. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process" -1989 p.256

Saaty T.L. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process" -

McGraw-Hill, New York. 1980 p.16

Michael Stocker: "The Russian Defence Industrial

Base: A Critical Assessment" - 2012

J.L.Suarez, I.M.Alba - "An exercise in Stakeholder

Analysis for a hypothetical offshore wind farm in the

Gulf of Cadix", 2007

Stakeholder analysis report: "Central Asia Nexus dialogue project: fostering water, energy and food security nexus dialogue and multi-sector investment" - Working document, Almaty 2017 Data.worldbank.com, www.armstat.am

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