CC BY
9
m 355.G13.1
m пиаиичиъ ЧИГПОПЬ^ЗПЬЪЪЪГЬ ^umusnwc. ичиъ^ьъичзиъ ¿tsuansmuu чьъэгпъъъгь ПГПС
4iuhmqb Uqjjwb'
PiubiujJi pmnhp ftnLumummüJ ^m2üntp]ntü, nmqüm^mü ^mpnqntpjntü-ühp, qJü^mb ntdhp, u^müqJüm^mü hhmmqnmm^mü ^hümpnüühp, hhnm-hmp hümpm^npntpjntüühp:
4mpnqntp]ntüühpp ^шфшqшüg ^mpUnp pmqmqpJ^ hü n^ üJmjü ^hrnm^mü JüumJmntrnühpJ qmpqmgümü nL mpqJm^mümgümü qnp&nLÜ, mj^ ümU u^qpntüpmjJü qhpm^mmmpnLÜ ntühü pmqmpm^müntpjmü ü2mkümü U Jpm^mümgümü hmppnLpjntüntü: 4mpnqntp]ntüühpü, mü2nt2s, ühpmnnLtf hü Jü^hu üjntpm^mü nL фJqJЦшЦшü, mjü^hu t]_ pmqmpm^mü nL hnqhpm-üm^mü rnmpphp: Ipmüp nLqqm^Jnphü hü mqqmjJü hqn-
pnLpjmü ¿шфnLtfühpJ hhs: OpJüm^, umhtfmünLÜühpJg üh^J hmtfmámjü mqqJ/^hrnnLpjmü (mqqmjJü) hqnpnLpjnLüp 3 tfm^mpqm^ühpnLÜ t hpUm^nLÜ. 1) nhunLpuühp Цшй ^mpnqnLpjnLüühp (nLdJ mn^mjnLpjnLü), 2) Jü^hu hü mjq ^mpnqnLpjnLüühpp ^hpшфn^nLtf (^nü^hpmmgJm), 3) hqn-pnLpjmü ^hpgümpqjnLüpühpp [1, p. 1]: Uju pü^m]_tfmü 2p^üm^nLtf ^hmnL-pjnLüp qJmmp^nLÜ t JppU «^mpnqnLpjnLüühpJ üJ mp^q», npp ^mpJp nLüJ фn^шЦhpщhlnL üjnLpm^mü nhunLpuühpp (nLdmjJü) qnp&Jpm^mqüJ, npnüg 2mppnLÜ ^mpnq hü jJühj_, opJüm^, nmqüm^mü qnp&nqnLpjnLüühp ^mphjnL hümnLpjnLüühpp: Uju^Jun^, hqnpnLpjnLüp üJmjü ^mpnqnLpjnLüühpp ¿hü, mjl_ ümU mjq ^mpnqnLpjnLüühpp фn^шЦhpщhlnL püqnLüm^nLpjnLüp, npü tj_, Jp hhppJü, ^hmüqhgüJ hmgnq^mb ^hpgümpqjnLüpühpJ:
Ipm hhs üh^rnhq, hmp^ t ü^mrnhj,, np ^mpnqnLpjnLüühpJ phümü m^hjJ jmjü pmqmpm^mü U ^mmüm^mü hmümmhpumJ ümu t ^mqünLÜ: Uju^hu, ^hmnLpjmü pmqmpm^müm^hu qmpqmgmb jJühjnL pünpn2nLÜüh-
' «bnpm^müp» 4-4Z Junphpqm^mü, U'J2mqqm]Jü hmpmphpnLpjnLüühpJ фш^nцmhmJ
¿müpmjJü ^mnm^mpümü müpJnüJ 4mpJb 4.q.p., ^nghürn:
p^ hhUpntJ pUlmfc hU mmpmpUni.jp ¿mlmUfr?Uhp U ¿mlnpn2feUhp: 3Umjm& mjq pmqJmqmUntpjmUp" q^mUmlmUUhp^ Jh& Jmup pmqmpmlmU qmpqmgm&ntpjmU q^m^np Um^mqpjm^ t mhuUntJ hmJmlmpq^ InqJ^g hhUg mUhpmdh2s ImpnqntpjntUUhp^, hUmpmlnpnLpjntUUhp^, ^U^hu UmU hmpmsU m^/qmpqmgJmU Uhpntd^ mn^mjntpjntUp: fthuntpumj^U Uhpntd^ qnjntpjntUp pmqmpmlmU qmpqmgJmU ImpUnpmqnLjU Um^mqpjmiU t [2, p. 116]: U.tjjqhU2smqmp U U.T^mJmUmp hfr?jmL JnshgJmU h^JUmlmU gm-mmqn^UhpU hUx qmUhjnl, np pmqmpmlmU qmpqmgntJp rn^jm^ ^hmntpjmU hmJmqmmmu^mU lmpnqnLpjni.UU t hmpJmplhini. U qmpqmUmjnL" Unp Jmpmmhpm^hpUhp^U pUqmnmg: U.tjjqhU2smqm^ Imp&^pnl ImjntU pmqmpmlmU qmpqmgntJp JnqhnU^qmgJmU IhUspnUmlmU ^pnpjhJU t [3, p. 98]: Cum mhumpmUUhp^x it m^mUqmlmU pmqmpmlmU hmJmlmpqh-p^ qmpqmgntJp q^mmplh^ qntm mpUJsjmU qmpqmgmfc ^hmnLpjntUUhp^ hmJmlmpqmj^U ¿mlnpn2feUhpnl lmJ hmJmhm^mumphgUh^ qpmUp. «pmqmpmlmU qmpqmgntJp qnp&pUpmg t, np^ J^gngn^ pmqmpmlmU hmJm-Impqp A.hnp t phpntJ ImpnqnLpjmhhhp" hmgnqntpjmJp U hhsUnqmlmUn-phU hmuUhpi. Unp U^mmmlUhp^, hmpJmp^h^nt Unp m^^ ^mhmUgUhp^U, ^U^hu UmU umhq&hpi. Unp m^^ ^mqJm^hp^ntpjntUUhp» [4, pp. 4-15]:
^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ m^pm^hmntJp ulqpntUpmj^U ^mUmlntpjntU ntU^ pmqmpmlmU fr?famUnLpjmU ^mh^mUJmU U IhpmpmmqpntpjmU m^mhn^JmU mhumUljntU^g: ShumlhmUhp^g Jhl^ hmJm&mjU m^mnp^-smp lmJ l^um^mnp^mmp fy?famUmlmU nhd^JUhp^ ^mpmqmjntJ «o^h-pmg^nUmp» pUntjp^ 3 in^lm^mlg^mfc ¿m^ntJUhp hU mnlm, npnUp tl ImqJntJ hU fy?famUmlmU ImpnqntpjntUUhp^ hhUpp. m^mnp^mmp ^hmm-lmU ^2^mUnLpjnLU, tl^smj^ ImqJm^npJmU U ImqJmlhp^JmU mnmU&Um-hmm^ntpjntUUhpp, ^U^hu UmU know-how-mn^mjntpjntUp [5, pp. 234235]: CUq npntJ m^mnp^mmp ^hmm^mU fy?famUnLpjnLUp UhpmnntJ t hphp ¿m^ntJUhp. qnpbnq fr?famUnLpjmU InqJ^g iftpmhuliilmh IjmpnqntpjntUUh-pp, mjq ImpnqntpjntUUhp^ bmilmpp U ¿_mipp [ 5]:
£mqmpmlmUntpjmU J2mlJmU U ^pmlmUmgJmU ImpntjpntJ (policy making and policy implementation) ImpnqntpjntUUhp^ ^mUmlntpjntUU mnm^h mlUhmjs t qmnUntJ, pmU^ np hhUg ImpnqntpjntUUhpU hU hmUq^-umUntJ ^hmntpjmU lmJ hmumpmlntpjmU m^pm^hmntpjmU Uhppn qmU^nq nhunLpuhhp]i U l^pmn^h^p (Um^pUmph^) qnpd]iphhp]i J^gU lm-^nq ImpUnpmqnLjU oqmlp: JpmUu^mlmU q^pngp nhuntpuUhpU mU^mUntJ t mpmmp^U pmqmpmlmUntpjmU «h^JUmlmU 2mpd^^ ntdp», rn^jm^ ^hmnt-
pjmU mnm^hinLpjni.UUhp^ hmUpmqntJmpp, npp p^ntJ t Upm m2^mphm-qpm^mU q^pp^g, ^^Jmj^g, pUm^ntpjmU ¿m^g, ^ppm^mU Jm^mpqm^g, qmpqmgmbntpjmU mum^mU^g [6, pp. 130-133]:
Upmmp^U pmqmpm^mUntpjmU ^mpmqmjntJ ^hmnLpjni.UUhp^ J^gU mmpphpnLpjni.UUhpU mnm^h gmjmntU hU qmnUntJ: Uhb mhpnLpjni.UUhpU ^phUg m^pm^hmnLpjmU Uhppn ntUhU pm^m^mU imjUmbm^m qnpb^pm-^mqJx u^umb hard hqnpntpjmU mnm^h qnphq mhum^Uhp^g tf^U^U soft mqqhgntpjmU qnpbntU jbm^Uhp: LpmUp ^mpnq hU UmU qnpbh^ frphUg m2^mphmqpm^mU qnmni. umhJmUUhp^g qntpu, UntjU^u^ qjnpm^ Jm^mp-qm^ntJ: Tm, pus tntpjmU, qhpmhpntpjmU (superpower) mnmp^mjm^mU hmm^mUfr?U t, hpp ^hpg^Uu ^mpnq t npn2h^ ^hpgUmpqjntUpUhpU m2^mp-hmqpm^mU gmU^mgmb mmpmbpntJ" gmU^mgmb J^gngUhp^/qnpb^pUhp^ oqsmqnpbJmJp: Onpp ^hmntpjntUUhp^ hmJmp, Jjntu ^nqJ^g, ^pm^mU Jmpmmhpm^hp t uh^m^mU ^UpUm^mpntpjmU ^mh^mUntJp:
Uju hmJmmhpumntJ, mpmmp^U pmqmpm^mUntpjmU ^pmqnpbJmU qnpb^pUhp^ pUmpntpjmU h^JUm^Uq^pU pJpnUh^nL hmJmp mUhpmdh2s t mnUh^ hp^ni. U^mmmnntJ. hmju qnpb^pUhpp np^hu mjq^u^U ^m^mb hU qpmUg h^JpntJ pU^mb ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^g, npnUp ^phUg hhp-p^U mbmUgjm^ hU rn^jm^ hmumpm^ntpjmU mUop^UntpjmU Uhppn qmU^nq nhuntpuUhp^g; hplipnpq np^ntJUhp ^mjmgUnqUhpp ¿hU pUmpntJ mju ^mJ mjU qnpb^pp, ^¿^hu, op^Um^, qm ^mUhp ^pmpntjdp qnpbnqntpjntU^g mnmg. pUqhm^mnm^p" mn^m qnpb^pUhp^ pUntjpU t np^ntJ pUmp^h^p pmqmpm^mUntpjmU/JnmhgJmU hhUpp [6]:
Hhpnh^2]mj^ hmJmmhpumntJ, hmJm2^mphmj^U pmqmpm^mUnt-pjmU Uhp^m ^nqntJ mnm^h mpq^m^mU t qmnUntJ ^n2np qhpm^mmmp-Uhp^ ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ qUmhmmntJp, ^¿p ^hpg^UUhp^u U^mmm^m-qpntJUhp^ hhs Jh^mhq J^gmqqmj^U U mmpmbm2pgmUmj^U qmpqmgntJ-Uhp^ (J^mntJUhpft) ^mU^mmhuJmU ^mpUnp mqpjntpUhp^g Jh^U t: Q-npbUm^mU mhumU^jntU^g, ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ qUmhmmntJp ^mpUnp^ntJ t hp^nt q^mmU^jntU^g: hmJm^mpq^mb mhqh^ntpjntUUhpU mjq njnp-
mntJ ^mpnq hU hUmpm^npntpjntU pUA.hnh]_ hmpmphpm^mUnphU m^h^ jm^. hmu^mUmjni. U «Uhpu^g» pJpnUh^nt mju ^mJ mjU ^hmntpjmU mpmmp^U pmqmpm^mUntpjmU mhu^m^mU^ pUmpntpjntUp: bp^pnpq ^mpnqntpjntU-Uhpp np^hu mjq^u^U mjU Jmmp^gmU hU, np^ J^gngn^ t hpUm^^ntJ ^m-^p Uhpp^U U mpmmp^U ¿m^ntJUhp^ J^gU:
Uü^u^b, шü^шшüqnLp]шü U щш2ШщшüшЦшü püшqш^шnnLÜ Л1 ^pnqnLp]nLÜühpM (qüшhшшüшü) hMüüшhшpgp 2шpnLÜшЦnLÜ t шpUüш]шü MüuшMшnLшühpM nL2шqpnLp]шü ЦhüшpnünLÜ, ü^ü^qhn 4.^nt-ш^М 2016p. hш]шшpшpnLp]nLÜp, ph «^pUnp t ühpntdp, шд n^ ph йшш-qpntpjntüühpp», puш tnLp]шü, фшиш^й t nnLuшuшшü]шü qh^^mpnL-p]шü ^nqü^g йш^дшйшр^й uшhц&^ш& nшqüшpшцшpшЦшü MpшqpnLp]шü nhш^Muшшlшü pü^jü^ü йши^:
¿^и^иш]^ Ь^ПЩШ]М ulшüqMüш4jшü üM 2шpp цhшnLp]nLÜühpM hшüшщшшшu^шü qhpшшhu¿шЦшü üшpüMüühpM ^nqü^g Л1 nшqüшЦшü U nшqüшpшцшpшЦшü ^pnqnLp]nLÜühpp qüшhшшnq U ^hpjnL&nq ш2^шшт-pjntüühpM püшpnLp]nLÜp щш]шüшüш^np^ш& t üM pшüM üЦшшшnnLÜühpnф Ъш^ ш]ц hp^pühpp qшü^nLÜ hü Л1 - LUSO шüüM2шЦшü U пъццшЦМ 2фüшü qbntü, npM uшhüшüшqnшMü шügünLÜ t ühpàpш^p]шü шшpш&ш2p2шün^: Zhüg ш]uшhq hü пщ^Ч uшhüшüш]Mü «2фüшü» ühg qшü^nLÜ nnLuшuшшü]шü U шpUüш]шü qnpphpü nL nшqüшЦшü hüpшЦшnnLg^ш&pühpp, Mü^ü Mp hhpp^ü op^^M^^hü hüpшqpnLÜ t ^hpg^üühp^u ^nqü^g шпш^1_ Mpшцш2шшЦшü qüшhшшшЦшüühpM U hш^шuшpшЦ2n^ш& ^hpLntbntpjnLÜühpM й2шЦ^й: bp^pnpq hp^pühpM цш2шцшüшЦшü U шü^шшüqnLp]шü püшqш^ш-
nM qhpшшhu^nLp]nLÜühpp Л1 nшqüшЦшü U hшpшЦMg ш]^ ^pnqnLppLÜühpM qüшhшшüшü U ^hppL&nLp^ü hшpшшU ш^шüqnLjpühp nLÜhü, npnüp u^Mqp hü шnünLÜ qhnUu ^nphp^]^ü dшüшüшЦühpMg: bü^ ^hpшphpnLÜ t dшüш-üшЦшЦMg ЛnLuшuшшüMü, шцш, opMüшЦ, ЦШ2ШЦШÜnLp]ШÜ
üш^шpшpnLp]nLÜü ш^шüqшpшp qüшhшшnLÜ t nnшшuшшÜJШü nшqüшЦшü ^pnqnLp]nLÜühpM шшuüшü]ш hnpMqnüp qhn 1998/99pp. M ^hp1: bppnpq pnjnp uЦшüqMüш4jшü hp^pühpü hü hшüqMuшünLÜ LUSO шüqшü ^шш.-pjnLÜühp, phU цшhцшünLÜ hü uhpш nшqüшpшqшpшЦшü U ^иш^шт-gMnüшL ^^hp hhш ^^ш^4 C^hq^ü U $Mül^üq^ü qhnUu ^hü
шüqшüшЦgnLÜ LUSO-^ü4 M шшpphpnLp]nLÜ U ■Lnp^hq^]^: 4hp-
hшüqшüшüpp npn2шЦM hhшшqnшшЦшü шpdhp ^pnq t ühp^^gühi_4 hшühüшшшЦшü hшüшшhpuшnLÜ hшuЦшüшlm. qüшhшшшЦшüühpM üüш-ÜnLp]nLÜÜhpÜ nL ШШpphpnLp]nLÜÜhpp:
4hp^^hu, hш2^M шnühLn^ uЦшüqMüшфшü цhшnLp]nLÜühpM шЦшqhüMшЦшü U hhшшqnшшЦшü Ш2^шшшüpühpM (iu]q p^nLÜ üшU ^h-шшЦшü-qhpшшhu^шЦшü üшЦшpqшЦnLÜ) pшpÀ.p üшЦшpqшЦpч ^hpg^üüh-
1 FOI, www.foi.se/en/
p^u ^nqJ^g ^pm^mUmg^mb hhmmqnmnLpjntUUhpp ^mpnq hU Jhpnqmpm-Um^mU mhumU^jntU^g mpdUnp^h np^hu «op^Um^hj^» ntuntJUmu^pnt-pjntUUhp mjL ^hmntpjntUUhp^ ^mJ mmpmbm2pgmUmj^U nmqJm^mU U h^p-p^qmj^U ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ qUmhmsJmU hnjn^ni.jpnLJ: UsnpU mUqpm-qmpA.hj_ hUp TmU^mj^ ^m2s^mUm^mU U hhmm^ntqm^mU bmnmjntpjmU mJhUmJjm qh^ntjg^ ftl-^U ^hpmphpnq hmm^mb^U1, Lnp^hq^mj^ hhsm-^ntqm^mU bmnmjntpjmU mJhUmJjm qh^ntjg^U2, ^¿^hu UmU C^hq^mj^ ^m2s^mUntpjmU Um^mpmpntpjmU hhs hmJm^g^mb FOI hhmmqnmm-^mU ^mnntjg^ hhppm^mU" «ftniumummU^ nmqJm^mU ^mpnqntpjntUUhpp smuUmJjm hhnmU^mpntJ - 2016» m2^mmntpjmUp3:
Pmg^ u^mUq^Um^jmU h^JUmqpjntpUhp^g" np^hu hqJmU mqpjntpUhp npn2 qh^phpntJ ^mUqpmqmnUmUp UmU mpUJsjmU mjj_ ^hUmpnUUhp^ qUmhmmm^mUUhp^U, npnUp ^hpmphphU ftl-^U ^mJ mmpmbm2pgmUmj^U mU^mmUqntpjmU hmpghp^U: Op^Um^x 2016p. ftniumummU^ nmqJm^mU Uhpntd^ hmJm^mp^m^ pUqhmUpm^mU qUmhmmm^mUp, npp Uhp^mjmg-phj_ t hhq^Um^m^np The Military Balance 2017 (ftmqJm^mpm^mU hhsmqn-mntpjntUUhp^ J^gmqqmj^U ^Uum^mntm), pUqhmUntp mnJmJp hmJmhnt^ t u^mUq^Um^jmU qhpmmh^nLpjntUUhp^ JnmhgntJUhp^U. «ftT q^U^mb ntdhpp 2mpntUm^ntJ hU jntpmgUhj_ Unp UhpqpntJUhp, npnUp UhpmnntJ hU m^hj^ ^mmmphjmqnpb^mb q^Ummhum^Uhp^ UhpJntbntJ hUmgmbUhp^ ^n^mphU: q^U^mb ntdhpp UmU ^mh^mUntJ hU ^mUm^mj^ ntdmj^U qhpm^mjntpjntU m^mUqm^mU njnpmUhpntJ, ^¿^u^p hU qpmhmmh^U^-^mU U tjh^rnpnUmj^U nmqJm^mU pUmqm^mnp, ^mpnqntpjntUUhpp hpp^-nmj^U hphmmUmj^U hmJm^mpqhpntJ»4:
Ht2mqpm^ t, np pnjnp hhmmqnmm^mU ^Jphp^ hmJmp np^hu Jh^-Ump^mj^U gppmdmU-mmphp^hp hU hmUq^umUntJ 2008, mqm" 2014 p^m-^mUUhpp: Unmg^UU pU^mj^ntJ U Uhp^mjmg^ntJ t np^hu nntu-^pmgm^mU q^U^mb q^Jm^mjntpjmUp hmgnpqmb nntumummUjmU nmqJm^mU hmJm-^mpq^ pmph^n^JmU Jh^Ump^5, J^^qhn 2014-px nmqJmpmqmpm^mU
1 Intelligence Risk Assessment 2016: an Assessment of developments abroad impacting on Danish Security, Danish Defence and Intelligence Service, 2016:
2 FOCUS 2017, The Norwegian Intelligence Service: assessment of current security challenges, Norway 2017:
3Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective - 2016, G. Persson (ed.), FOI-R-4326-SE, December 2016:
4 The Military Balance 2017, IISS, UK, 2017, Press Launch, p. 2.
5 D. Trenin, The Revival of the Russian Military: How Moscow Reloaded, Foreign Affairs, May-June, 2016 [www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/Russia-fsu/2016-04-18/revival-russian-military]:
mnntJn^ hmgnq^mb «J^mhjntulmb» qnpbnqntpjni.UUhp^ op^Uml, hpp ^p^-Jp J^mlg^hg ftniumummU^ hhs" mnmUg npUt Lntpg q^U^mb J^gmqh^hp^ qpmUgJmU:
ZmmlmU2mlmU t, np 2^hqmlmU hhmmqnmnLpjntUp ImusntJ t lm-pUnpmqntjU «hmpmgntgmj^U» mhqm2mpd^ Jmu^U, np hUmpm^np t qpmUgh^ nmqJm^mpmlmU lmpnqntpjntUUhp^ mlm^lntJ. «2013p. JhUp hjUntJ t^Up mjU lmU^mqpntjp^g, np №1-U mpAmqmUpntJ t ^ hmjs hlnq uqmn-Um^pUhp^U" ¿m^pm^hmhLnl dmJmUmlmj^U nhuntpuUhp^ ^mmpmum^h-LnL qnpbnqntpjntUUhp ^mph^ntU: Hhpg^U ^pmqmpAmpjnLUUhp^ intju^ Uhp-pnx mjdJ JhUp qUmhmsntJ hUp mnlm mlm^Uhpp" nmqJmlmU qnpbnqnt-pjntUUhp imphjnt mjU^u^ ^pm^^mlUhpntJ, hpp ftntumummUU ^UpU t hmUqhu qm^u Um^m&hnUnq^ qhpntJ»1:
Uju hmJmmhpumntJ, UpUhymU U ^hUmpnUmlmU b^pn^mj^ hUmpm-inp «^UjmUqmlmUmgJmU» Jmu^U t Um^mqqni^mgUntJ UmU UUL hhsm-qnsmlmU lhUmpnUUhp^g Jhl^ qhlntjgp: Cum hhq^Uml^, ftntumummUp LUSO mpUhymU nqg umhJmUmqb^ hplmjUpn^ (PmjpjmU hplpUhp^g J^U^U Pm^lmUUhp) mhqmlmjntJ t mpmmp^U J^gmJmntpjntUU mpqh^m^mlnq «mUApUmUng» (A2/AD2). hmJm^p J^gngUhp^ U mh^U^lmlmU lmpnqnt-pjntUUhp^ hmJm^ntJp, npp l^mmUh2^ LUSO Uhppm^mUgJmU lmpnqnt-pjntUUhpp: F"U^hu ^mqmqo^l^mUnujmU mmpmbm2pgmU^ mpUJsjmU hms-ImbntJ" Q^UmummU^ ^mpmqmjntJ, mjushq Uu ntdmj^U hm^mumpm^nnt-pjntUp hoqnts ftniumurnmU^ ^n^n^JmU mlUhmjs J^mntJUhp hU mnlm: UmlmjU hmslmU2mlmU t, np mJhp^ljmU hhmmqnmntpjmU Jhg №1-U &qmntJ IplUop^Umlh^ mJhp^ljmU JhpnqUhpU nt mqqhgntpjmU hqmUml-Uhpp, pmjg hhU^ntJ t mnmgmsmp mh^Unjnq^mUhp^ U nmqJmlmU pUntjp^ hmJmlmpqhp^ l^pmnJmU Unp JnmhgntJUhp^ ipm" mpq^mlmU h^pp^-qmj^U qnpphp^ U J^gntlmj^U hUmpmlnpntpjntUUhp^ Uhpqpm^JmJp [7, p. 51]: Qhlntjgp hhq^Uml^ lmpb^pn^, hph A2/AD l^pmnntJp ^hpmb^ «un^n-pmlmU» ^pmlm^lmj^, mqm mjU lmpnq t ipgnphU in^n^h^ nmqJmlmU hmlmumpml2nntpjntUp b^pmu^mj^ bmjpmJmuhpntJ ^ ^Umu UUL-^:
UJhp^ljmU hhmmqnmnqUhpp UntjU^hu hmlimb hU dmJmUmlml^g ftntumummUp q^mmplh^ frppU nU^q^nU^ummlmU mhpntpjntU, npp, UmummU^ U ^mU^ hhs Jhlshq, ^ qnpnt t in^mlhp^h^ nmqJm^mpm-lmU hmlmumpml2nntpjntUp hmUqntgmj^U Jmlpnsmpmbm2pgmUUhpntJ,
1 Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective - 2016, p. 18:
2 A2/AD - Anti-Access/ Access Denial.
npшhq UUU-p ^hüum^mü 2mhhp nLüJ: Pnjnp hphpü J ^J^m^J hü «ühpmqqhjnL nmqüm^mü hm^mumpm^nnLpjmü ^pm Jphüg m2^mphm-qpm^mü шшpш&ш2P2шüühpJg qnLpu4 nLdhpJ hhnmhmp шhqшЦш]üшü, hhnmhmp qJüшшhuшЦühpJ ^Jpmnümü U JphügJg щhшnLpjnLÜühpJ Цшй nLdhpJ üJgngn^» [7. p. 4]: U^hjJü, ünLjü qh^nLjgJ hmümÄ.mjü, ЛЛг-ü J qnpnL t ^hpшфn^hlnL h^pn^m^mü nmqüm^mü pшшhpшphüp hoqnLш Jphü, üJü¿ mühpJ^jmü nmqüm^mü ühpnLdp ^npA.J hhш phphj_ «^npu^mb шшpш&pühpp»ч oqшшqnpЬhLn^ h^pn^m^mü pшшhpшphüJ nmqüm^mpm-^mü ^npnLpjnLÜp U UpUüшJшü b^pn^mjnLÜ nLÜhgmb qJpphpp: Ujl ^nuph-pn^ UpUhymü U Zmpm^mjJü b^pn^mü шhuшЦшünphü ^mpnq hü «qJg^hp> ЛnLuшuшшüJü pmgmhm^ шnáшЦшшüшü ^mpmqmjnLÜ. üJ pmü, np mühümpJü tp шhuühL шpUüш]шü ^hpjnL&nLpjnLÜühpnLÜ hhш^nphpqш]Jü qmpqmgümü mnm^Jü ф^^^
CüqhmünLp mnümüp, pnjnp hphp u^müqJüm^mü hhшшqnшnLpjnLÜ-ühpp ^hpjnL&nLü hü ЛnLuшuшшüJ ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpp «o^hpmgJnümp> hmppnLpjnLÜnLÜ4 q^m^npm^hu ЦhüшpnüшüшLn^ цш2шцшüшЦшü U hmpA.m^nqm^mü ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpJ Цшщ^шЬ hhüg Jphüg hmpm^Jg
üшЦpnшшpш&Ш2P2ШÜJ hhш: Uju hшüшшhpuшnLÜ, np^hu ^mpnqnLpjnLÜ-ühpJ qüшhшшüшü hmppnLpjnLÜühp hp^nL mu^h^ühp hü mnmü^ümg^nLü.
pnLÜ üjnLpm^mü ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpJ hmppnLpjnLÜp (qJüшh^üJЦш, ünp qJüшшhuшЦühp, hüpm^mnnLg^m&pühp), шцш4 mju^hu Цп^шЬ «шpшüuшЦgJnü» U LnqJuшJЦ ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpJ шJpnLJpp, npü müüJgm-^münphü Цшц^шЬ t qJü^mb nLdhpJ ^mnm^mpümü npm^J, npn2nLÜühpJ ^mjmgümü mpmqnLpjmü nL qnpbnqnLpjnLÜühpJ mpmqmqnp&nLpjmü hhш: Ujq mühüJ hhш hmümqp^nLÜ hü «hJppJqmjJü» ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpp, npnüp, J pJ^u mpng, hüpmqpnLü hü шшpphp щl_шшфnpüühpJ üJ^U pmpÀp o^hpm-gJnüm^ hmümqpümü hüшnLpjnLÜühpJ qmpqmgnLÜ: Ь qh^, nL2mqpm^ t, np 2G14-Jg J ^hp фшф^Ц nLdJ hш]hgшЦhшp u^uhg qJшшpЦ^hl_ ünLjü üm^mp-qm^nLÜ, Jü¿ nmqüm^mpm^mü qu^nLüp. üJ pmü, np шJцшЦшü tp üJmjü üJgnL^mjJü qJüшшhuшЦühpJ qmuJü ^mü hhnmhmp pmpAp á2qpшnLp]шü qJüшшhuшЦühpJü [8]:
Umuüm^npm^hu, qmüJm^mü ftJu^hpJ qüшhшшüшü qh^nLjgnLü üшшüшÜ2^nLÜ t qh^m^mpnLpjmü «ühp^mjJu ^mpnqnLpjnLÜp qJühjnL Цп2ш U ^ánm^mü npn2nLüühpJ ^mjmgümü U nmqüm^mü üJgngühpJ oqшш-qnp&ümü4 hmuüh^nL hp^pJ mn^U ^müqümb nmqüm^mpm^mü üцшшшЦ-
Uhpi m^mhn^JmUp»1, Ulmm^ ntUhUmjnl UipimjntJ JhlUmplmb qnpbn-qntpjntUp: U^h^U, i mmpphpntpjntU mjL ^hmntpjntUUhpi" np^ntJUhpi lmjmgJmU dmJmUmlmhmm^mbp ftntumummUi ^mpmqmjntJ ¿m^mqmUg lmp^ t sUntJ, iUp «hUmpmlnpntpjntU t pUAhnntJ ftntumummUi qhlm-ImpntpjmUU mpmq U l^rn pmqmpmlmU Um^m^hnUntpjntUUhp ipmqnpbh^ UpUJntmpi hmUqh^»2:
3Umjmb mUmhumlmU mUlJmUp" q^U^mb ntdhpi lmpnqntpjntU-Uhpp, ^U^hu UmU UpmUg lipmnJmU hUmpmlnpntpjntUUhpU m^h^ hU: U^-pimlmU qnpbnqntpjntUUhpp ImusntJ hU, np ftntumummUU i qnpnt t ^mh^mUh]_ pmpAp o^hpmg^nUm^ pmlp U iUmhqph]_ hmumUh^i J^gngUhpi l_mjU 2pgmUml: Sh^Unjnq^m^hu pmpApmlmpq q^UmmhumlUhpi J2mlntJU nt qmpqmgntJp ^mpntUmlli UmU 2017p. pUpmgpntJ" ¿Umjmb pjntghsm-j^U lp^mmntJUhpiU U Ji 2mpf bpmqphpi dmJmUmlm^np umnhgJmUp3:
Cum UntjU mqpjntpi, mmp^Uhp 2mpntUml Uhpqpmllmb liUhjnl hmlmJmpmnLpjnLUUhpntJ" ftntumummUi q^U^mb ntdhpp JmpsmlmU qnpbnqntpjntUUhp mmUmlnphpi. U ipmlmUmgUh^nt U2mUmlm|i InpA hU A.hnp phph^: 1pm h^JpntJ pUlmb hU UmU ^pmqJmm^l UlmsmnntJUhp" lnpA.mplh^ mju^hu ln^mb «Jmpmm^mpmlmU ^Jphp», ^U^hu UmU oq-mmqnpbh^nl pmqmpmg^mlmU Um^hp" jnhgUh^ nmqJmlmU mpmUu^np-mmj^U lmpnqntpjntUUhpi ^mlmunpqp: Uju qUmhmmmlmU^U hmJmhntU^ hU qmU^mlmU qhlntjgi lmU^mqpntjpUhpp. ftntumummUp qqm^nphU pmp&pmgph^ t ip mpUJsjmU umhJmU^U mhqmlmj^mb q^U^mb ntdhpi n^ J^mjU JmpsmlmU ^mmpmumlmbntpjmU mum^mUp, mjL UmU UpmUg pmUmlp. «№1 nmqJmlmU hqnpmgntJU nt mpq^mlmUmgntJp lqnphqmgUhU nntumusmUjmU q^U^mb ntdhpi lmpnqntpjntUp pmpAp iUmhUuilntpjmU JmpsmlmU qnpbnqntpjntUUhp imphjnt UpUJntmpi qhJ, phU №ntumu-smUp ¿i qUm LUSO-i hhs ntqqmli mn^mlmmJmU n^uli»: 2016-^g i ihp UnullmU uluhg ipmlmUmgUh^ ip bpmqpmb nmqJmlmU Um^m&hnUnt-pjntUUhpp, iul h^JUmlmU Inln^ntpjntUUhpp IhpmphpntJ hU gmJmpmj^U ntdhpi lmpnqntpjntUUhpi JhbmgJmUp:
S^U^mb ntdhpi lipmnJmU mpqJnl.UmlhmnLpJnl.UU mUJ^gmlmUnphU in^lm^lmb t ftntumummUi lnqJ^g pn^np hmumUh^i J^gngUhpi J^mdm-
1 Intelligence Risk Assessment 2016: an Assessment of developments abroad impacting on Danish Security, p. 11.
2 LntjU mtqntJ:
3 FOCUS2017, p. 9.
Ч. Uqjjmh
<21-pq П-иг», pfii¡ 3 (73), 2G17p.
ümüm^jm oqшшqnpЬüшü щшшpшuшшЦшünLpJшü U ^mpnqnLpjmü hhш: nLdhpJ hmü^mp&m^J шhqшфn^üшü hümpm^npnLpjnLÜühpJ шJpшцh-шnLÜp ^mhmügnLü t nmqüm^mpm^mü шpшüuцnpшш]Jü ^mpnqnLpjnLÜ-ühp, mpmq mpA.mqmüpümü nLdhp U hmüm^mpq^mb gmüphp pnqmp^hjnL üüшüшшJц шhqш2шpdhpp: ЛnLuшuшшüp Цшшшphl_шqnp&hL t mjq nLnpшühpnLÜ Jp ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpp ^hpgJü 5-6 шшpJühpJ püpmgpnLü mpqJm^mümgühjn^ U pшphфn^hln^ nLdmjJü ^mpnqnLpjnLÜühpp1:
bü¿ ^hpmphpnLü t hhш^nphpqш]Jü шшpш&ш2P2шüJü, шцш puш ünp^hqmgJ фnpЛ.шqhшühpJ Unu^mü ^?mpnLÜm^J ^ш^ ^mh^müh^ hJZ!mL шшpш&ш2p2шüü JppU «шü^шшüqnLpJшü pmqmpm^münLpjmü pnL-фhp шpшшpJü m2^mphJ qhü»: b^ pmüJ qhn ЛП qh^m^mpnLpjnLÜp hmüm-pnLü t ЛnLuшuшшüp pшqüшЦhüшpnü hmüm^mpqJ hmüm2^mphmjJü pUhnühpJg üh^p, nLuшJ шühpшdh2ш t qшünLÜ 2P2шцшш^шЬ iJüh^ pmpJ-qpmgJm^mü щhшnLpJnLÜühpnф npnüf ^nqüünpn2^m& hü qh^J Unu^mü: Ujq Jüшuшn^ ЛnLuшuшшüJ hmümp hmüqnLgmjJü Ü2müm^nLpjnLÜ nLÜJ ^mü^mpqhjh hhш^nphpqш]Jü цhшnLp]nLÜühpJ UpUünLшpJ hhш ¿шфJg m^hjJ uhpш шüшhuшЦшü U pmqmpm^mü ^m^hp hшuшшшhl_p2:
ЧП2Ш nmqüm^mpm^mü üpgm^mjpmpp ЛnLuшuшшüJ U UpUünLшpJ üJ^U ^2mpnLÜm^^J, puш ünp^hqm^mü qh^nLjgJ, qhnUu hp^mp dmümüm^, U hqJ ^iJüJ 2шш qh^phpnLü шüЦшü^шшhuh^J qmpqmgnLüühpn^: ЛП hJüüm^mü üшpшшhpш^hpühpp, npnüg qJümqpm^ümüü hü nLqq^mb ühp^mjJu nntumummüjmü J2^münLpjnLÜühpJ gmüphpp, üJmhjnLu^mb hü hphp nmqüm^mpm^mü üцшшшЦühpJ hhш. ^mh^müh]_ Jphüg uhфшЦшü J2^münLpjnLÜp (nhdJüp), ^hpmhu^h]_ ЛП «ühp^m^np шpшшuшhüшüp» U m^mhn^h]_ ЛnLuшuшшüJч ühb шhpnLp]шü ^mpqm^J^m^ü m2^mphnLü: С^ш Unu^mjJ4 UpUünLшpJ pmqmpm^münLpjnLÜp ^ш^шЬ t mjq hphp qhpüцшшшЦühpJ ^mp^jü^üp3:
C^hqm^mü ЦhüшpnüJ nLunLüümuJpnLpjnLÜp üm^ шшpphpшЦnLÜ t qJü^mb nLdhpJ üшpшшЦшü/nшqüшЦшü hqnpnLpjnLÜp np^hu hhüg SnL-Jü pünpn2 üшuüшqJшшЦшü hpUnLjp, püqhmünLp nmqüm^mü ^mpnqnLpjnLÜJg, npü шpшшgn^nLÜ t hp^pJ nLdü nL hqnpnLpjnLÜü Jp hшüшцшpфшЦ qpuUnp-ümü ühg: С^ш hJ2jm^ ühpnqmpmüm^mü ünшhgüшüч ЛП nmqüm^mü ^mpn-qnLpjnLÜühpp qüшhшшh^Ju hmp^ t üЦшшJ nLÜhüm^ ungJmjm^mü hpUnLjp-
1 UnLjü mhqmü, p. 14.
2 UnLjü mhqmü, pp. 19-2G.
3 UnLjü mhqmü, p. 21.
Uhpi UhpmqqhgntpjntUp, J^U^qhn pntU nmqJmlmU lmpnqntpjntUUhpp UhpmnntJ hU hphp Um^m^mjJmU. qpmUp hU" mUlsmUqntpjmU pmqmpm-lmUntpjntUp, ^m2s^mUmlmU bm^uhpp U Uhpp^U ^m2s^mUmlmU iUqntumpimL hhUpp1:
ZhmUhjnl hhUg mjq spmJmpmUntpjmUp Um^ pUUmpHntJ hU №1 SHl lmnntglmbpmjiU Inln^ntpjntUUhpp, mqm" JmpsmlmU hUmpm^n-pnLpJnLUUhpnLJ qpmUglmb pmUmlmlmU Inln^ntpjntUUhpp: Ujushq lmpUnp imushpig JhlU t qhnUu 2015p. №1 ^L npn2m.Jp 3 hm^h^jm^ qiliqimUhp umhqbh^nt U qpmUp mpUJsjmU umhJmUmqnsnt hplmjUpn^ mhqmpm2^hLnt Jmu^U: Zm2li mnUhjn^, np pnjnp hphp qhlntjgUhpntJ hmu-mmmlntJ t ftntumusmUi Unp jnqiusil U UjntpmlmU nhuntpuUhpU mpmq shqm2mpdhLnt pmpAp цmspmusmlmJnLpJnl.Up q^U^mb usnpmpmdm-UntJUhpi U2mUmlm|i hhnmlnpntpjntUUhpi ipm, ¿i pmgmn^ntJ, np lmq-Jm^nplmb (lmJ lmqJm^npJmU Int^ntJ qsU^nq2) qiliqimUhpi lmpnqnt-pjntUUhpp hUpmqpntJ hU Ji 2mpp Unp qhpmlmjntpjni.UUhpi m^mhn^ntJ:
Uju mnU^ntpjmJp mJhpiljmU Ji hhmmqnmntpjmU Jhg U2^ntJ hU mjq Unp usnpmpmdmUntJUhpi hm^mUmlmU (mp&mqmUpJmU) p^pm^Uhpp. ntlpmiUmji smpmbpntJ Unp imjUmbmlm qnpbnqnLpJnLUUhpi IhpuluJmU qh^pntJ lmqJnt^mmpmum qnpphpi mnlmj^pj^U nqg umhJmUmJhpA qnsrn. hplmjUpn^; 2mpdntUml tlismj^U usnpmpmdmUntJUhpi hUmpm^np lipmnntJ ^hUmpnUmlmU Uu^mji lmJ hhm^nphpqmj^U mj]_ hmUpm^h-mnLpJnLUnLJ pmqmpmlmU mUlmJnLUnLpJmU qu^JmU U^msmln^, lmJ" Ph^mnntuntJ pmqmpmlmU ipmqpntpjmU lspntl ImspmpmgJmU qh^-pntJ ntdmjiU lmpnqnLpJnLUUhpi sipm^hsntJ; ^hpgm^hu mjq ntdhpp lmpnq hU ipmlmUmgUh^ lnU^hUg^nUm^ mmpmbprnj^U ^m2s^mUntpjmU qnpbmnntjpUhp" q^mlnpm^hu pUqqhJ hm^mUmlmU hmlmnmlnpq hm-Jmplnq LUSO-i [9, p. 9]:
SmJmpmjiU ntdhpi hqnpmgntJU pus tntpjmU qqmji ¿mini nmqJm-ImpmlmU ntqhpA t LUSO-^U U UUL-^U mn mjU, np №ntumusmUU i qnpnt t qu^h^ mjU, ^U^ hmJmpntJ t nmqJmlmU u^mnUmjip Pm^pjmU smpmbm-2pgmUntJ U UpUhymU b^pn^mjntJ: ^mpUnpmqntjU hplnt lmU^mshunt-
1 Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective, p. 17.
2 TmU^m^mU htrnm^rnqmlmU qhlm_jgi hmJmAmjU frnrnmummUp ^imUmlnpm.J t hqnpmg-Ut^ mjq qiliqimUtpp Unp ummpmpmdmUm.JUhpml, npnUp lqmpAUhU qpmUp mlhi Jhb, ntdhq U, hm^mUmpmp, mJpnqgmpjmJp lmqJm^nplmb ljiUhU 2020p. qpmpjmJp, Intelligence Risk Assessment 2016, p. 17.
Jmj^U U^msmnntJUhpp, npnUp mnmg hU pm2^ntJ qmU^m^mU qh^ntjgntJ, hhsUjmjU hU. 1) gmJmpmj^U ntdhp^ pUqjmjUntJp U q^^q^mUhp^ ^hp-ushqbntJp np^hu pmUm^mj^U usnpmpmdmUntJ, qm^p 5-10 smp^Uhp^ pUpmgpntJ ^hqnpmgU^ pmpAp ^UshUu^ntpjmU Jmpsm^mU qnpbnqnL-pjntUUhpntJ ftniumummU^ Uhpqpm^^h^nt hUmpm^npntpjntUUhpp (ph hmpAm^nqm^mU U ph ^m2s^mUm^mU) hm^mump hm^mnm^npq^ sm-pmbpntJ" smpmbp^ mUJ^gm^mU JhpAm^m smpmbm2pgmUUhpntJ; 2) ftntumusmUp ^mpntUm^ q^smp^h^ J^gnt^mj^U q^Umshum^Uhpp np-^hu hmUqntgmj^U J^gng J^gnt^mj^U ^mJ un^npm^mU hm^mJmpsnt-pjntUUhp^ qu^JmU hmJmp1: Hhpgm^hu, hmusms^ntJ t mjU JsmjUntpjnt-Up, np qmpqmgUhjn^ l^ntpg, mpmq mp&mqmUpJmU Uhpntd" ftntumusmUU mjq n^npsntJ pmgmp&m^ qhpm^mjntpjntU ntU^ hhs^nphpqmj^U Jjntu pnjnp hmUpm^hsntpjntUUhp^ hmJhJms:
^hpmphpntJ t nmqJm^mU ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ o^hpmg^nUm^ Jm^mpqm^U, mqm mjushq qmp^jm^ mnmU&Umg^ntJ t 3 ntqqntpjntU, npnUp ^mqJntJ hU AT nmqJm^mU ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ hhUppx ^phUg mUJ^-gm^mU mnmphintpptUUhp^ shupn^. 1) o^hpmg^nUm^ - nmqJm^mpm^mU J^muUm^mU pmqJm^pn$^_ Jmpsm^mU qnpbnqntpjntUUhp (JISCOs); 2) hhnmhmp nmqJm^mU/Jmpsm^mU qnpbnqntpjntUUhp; 3) nmqJm^mpm^mU qu^ntJ: Zmp^ t U2hp np hhnmhmp nmqJm^mU ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ Uhppn 2^hq JmuUmqhsUhpp U^ms^ ntUhU m^h^ pmU 300 ^J hhnm^npntpjntU^g Jmpsm^mU ^Uq^pUhp pii^nt. ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ qUmhmsntJp (op^Um^, ^mu^g ^mJ U^ghp^pm^mU bn^hp^g p^pm^Uhp^ n^U^mgntJp U^p^mj^ smpmbpntJ ^mJ «F^mUqhp» hpp^nUhp^ shqmqpntJp ^m^U^UqpmqntJ): AmqJm^mpm^mU qu^JmU sm^ q^m^npm^hu hmu^mg^ntJ t J^gnt^m-j^U U un^npm^mU (qhp&?qpfrs) J^gngUhpn^ hm^mUm^mU hm^mnm^npqUh-p^ qu^ntJp2:
bphp J^JjmUg hhs ^n^m^m^g^mb qnpbnUUhp hU ^mpUnp^ntJ J^gUmdmJ^hs hhnmU^mpntJ AT ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ U qpmUg^g pfcnq hUmpm^np smpmbm2pgmUmj^U ^hg^mbp^ ^mpmqmjntJ. Jmpq^mj^U nh-untpuUhpn^ m^mhn^mbntpjmU hmpgp (q^m^npm^hu" q^U^npm^mU ^mqphpn^ hmJmip^mbntpjntUp), ^hpmq^UJmU Um^mqb^mb shJ^U mqm-hn^h^nt ^Uqntusp^m^ hUmpm^npntpjntUUhpp U nmqJm^mU bm^uhp^ 2m-
1 Intelligence Risk Assessment 2016, p. 17.
2 "brnjU mhqni.J, p. 23.
pmüü m^mhn^h^nt цhшnLp]шü ф^иЦш^ hümpm^npntpjntüühpp: ¿шшЦш-ü2m^mü t, np hph n^u^hpM qüшhшшüшü ünp^hqm^mü qh^nLjgntü шпЦш hü ughümpmjMü IhpjnL&nLpjmü np^m^M mu^h^ühp4 H üшpшшЦшü qnp&nqntpjntüühpM hümpm^np ühpфшpшügtfшü 2mnm^Mqp U hmgnqnt-pjmü hnpMqnüp, шцш 2^hqühpp üшшüшÜ2nLÜ hü H nmqüm^mü ^mpnqnt-pjntüühpM pmüm^m^mü «2шпш^пЫ>> hüpmqp^nq ш^М gntgmü^ühpp: Umuüm^npm^hu Ü2^nLÜ t, np ЛnLuшuшшüü M t hp^nt nmqüm^mü
pшшhpшphUmtf tfшpшü¿hl_ч ühpqpm^h^n^ ü^muüm^mü pшqtfшщpnфMl_ üшpшшЦшü qnpbnqntpjmü ühg mnü^mqü 150.000 qMü&mnmjnq: Ujq ^mpn-qntpjntüp ^mpnq t hmümip^h^ hhnmhmp nmqüm^mü qnpbnqntpjntüühp (stand-off) tfqhpi. ^mpnqntpjntüühpM Ü2müm^m|M 4шшшphl_шqnpЫшtfp. 2013-Mg M Ihp un^npm^mü U шшЦшMЦшЦшü ü^Sn^^mj^ü üшpшшq^^Mküh-pn^ hpp^nühpM U hшtfшщшшшu]шü hmüm^mpqhpM pMp hnшщшшЩhl_ t1: U^mdmümüm^, qh^ntjgM hhq^üm^ühpp фшиштй hü, np ühp^mj^u H SHL ^mnntglmbpp U hmumüh^M hümpmlnpntpjntüühpp pni_ji_ ^mü ^Um^nph^ 250.000-300.000 qMü&mnmjnq püqqp^nq ^Upm^npntJ, um^mjü mjü hm^mümpmp phpm^mhn^mb ll^üM шpшüuцnpшш]Mü U Impnqntpjntüühpnl2:
SnpphpM U, ümuüm^npm^hu, ünp uшhq&lnq uшnpшpшdшünLÜühpM hmümiplmbntpjmü шuшM^шüp, puш 2^hqm^mü qh^ntjgM, qüшhшшlnLÜ t 75%-Mg m^hjM, Mü¿ü шqhЩшш t nmqüm^mü ]üqMpühpM intbUmü hmümp, U шühшühüшш m^h^ü t, pmü 2013p. qpntpjmtfp mpA-mümqp^mb üft?p: bü¿ ^hpmphpntü t Ihpmq^üümü hhnmü^mp^ü U m^ü^mi^nq mpjntüpühpMü, ^h-шшЦшü u^mnmqMüntpjmü цшшlhp-2020 (Гособоронзаказ - 2020) h^üüm-^mü pMpm]ühpü Mpm^mümg^mb mühü, U qh^ntjgM hhq^üm^ühpM ^mp&M-pn^ 2025p. mmün^ üш]шшhulnq bm^m^ühpü m^hjM hшUЪuш mühü4 üЦшшM ntühümjnl шh^üMЦш]M U u^mnmqMüntpjmü pm^mpmplmbntpjmü цшш2ш^ шuшM^шüü mpqhü 2020p. qpntpjmüp3:
$MüшüuшpJnL2hшшJMü ImpnqntpjntüühpM шhuшüljnLÜMg u^müq^-üm^jmü pnnp hphp hшuшшшnLp]nLÜühpM qüшhшшшЦшüühpM hmUmámjü hfrZjmL ]üqMpp n¿ tf^mjü pntü фMüшüuшЦшü hümpmlnpntpjntüühpMü t ^h-pmphpnLÜ, mq ümU H pmqmpm^mü üш]шщшшlnLpJшü U hmumpm^m-
1 FOI, p. 92.
2 'bm.jü шhqnl.J, p. 193.
3 Uju^hu, op^üm^, ^jmün^ üш]uшшhu4nLJ t üMü¿U 2020p. qnpphpMü Uшшm^mpmphl_ 2300 шmü4, FOI, p. 171.
^mU mgm^gntpjmJp ^mjJmUm^np^mb hmpg: Zhsmppppm^mU t, np pmqm-pm^mU Jm^mpqm^ 2mpntUm^m^mU hmusmsm^mJntpjntUp q^U^mb ntdhp^ pmpAp JmpsntUm^ntpjmU U sh^U^m^mU ^hpmq^UJmU mqmhn^-JmU 2nLpg JmsUmU2^ntJ t UmU mj]_ ^pn^^mj^U hhsmqnsntpjntUUhpntJ1 ^mJ qhpmshu^m^mU qUmhmsm^mUUhpntJ2:
CUqhmUntp mnJmJp, u^mUq^Um^jmU pnjnp hphp qhpmshu^m^mU hhsmqnsm^mU ^hUspnUUhp^ qUmhmsJmJp ^mpnqntpjntUUhpntJ ^mUm^m^ npm^m^mU U pmUm^m^mU t qpmUg^hp npp ^hpmphpntJ t ph Jmpsm^mU hUmpm^npntpjntUUhp^ ^mUm^m^ ^msmphjmqnpbJmUp U ph pUqhmUntp nmqJm^mU ^mpnqntpjntUUhp^ qqm^ pUqjmjUJmUp: Ujq ^mpnqntpjntUUhpntJ qpmUg^mb ^n^m^hp^ntJp qj^m^npm^hu qmjJm-Um^np^mb t hp^rn. hmppntpjntUUhpntJ 2mq^m^^mb A.hnpphpntJUhpn^. Ujntpm^mU nL Jmpq^mj^U nhuntpuUhp^ hhsUnqm^mU m^mhn^JmU pmqmpm^mU ^mJpn^ U jnqfrus^ hUmpm^npntpjntUUhp^ m^n^, ^U^p hUmpm^npntpjntU t pU^hnh^ AT-^U tm^hu JhbmgUh^ U qnpbUm^mUntJ ^^pmnh^ ^p A2/AD ^mpnqntpjntUUhpp:
Utqppi, 2017p.
UqpjnipUhp U qpm^mUnipjniU
1. G.F. Treverton, S.G. Jones, Measuring National Power,RAND: CA, Santa Monica, 2005.
2. F.Heady, Public Administration: A Comparative Perspective, 6th Edition, Marcel Dek-ker: NY and Basel, 2001.
3. S.N. Eisenstadt, Bureaucracy and Political Development in J. LaPalombara, Bureaucracy and Political Development,Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963.
4. A.Diamant, Bureaucracy in Developmental Movement Regimes: A Bureaucratic Model for Developing Societies, Bloomington: IN: CAG Occasional Papers, 1964.
5. L.Way, Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Forth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, World Politics: A Quarterly Journal of IRvol.57, issue 2, Jan. 2005.
6. E.Brighi, Ch. Hill, Implementation and behavior in Foreign Policy: Theory, Actors, Cases, eds.S.Smith, A.Hadfield, T.Dunne, Oxford University Press, 2008.
7. A.Kepinevich, Preserving the Balance: a US Eurasian Defense Strategy, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, US: 2017.
12018 Security Outlook: Potential Risks and Threats (a foresight project), Canadian Security Intelligence Service, Canada 2016, pp. 47-54.
2 Worldwide Threat Assessment Statement for the Record, Armed Services Committee, V.R. Stewart, March 2, 2016, p. 7.
8. М. Гареев, На мягкую силу найдутся жесткие ответы, Военно-политический курьер, 4 декабря, 2013 (N47):
9. M.Kofman, The Russian Military: A Force in Transition in Russia's Military: Assessment, Strategy, and Threat (A.Golts and M.Kofman), Center on Global Interests, Washington DC, June 2016.
ЛП пшиичиъ ЧиГПТЛЬФЗПЬЪЪЪГЬ ^"UUZUSnbUC. ичиъпьъичзиъ ZbSUSnSU4UL ЧЪ^ГПЪЪЪГЬ ПГПС UnSbSnbUbbr
ЧшЬшдЬ Uqjjmh
U^lnlmq^p
ЛП nmq^m^mh ^pnqntpjntUUhp^ qhmhmrnJmU ^Uq^pU m^mhqmpmp qmU^nttf t mpUJrnjmU qhpmrnhu^m^mU, ^U^hu UmU n^ цЬшш^ши htrnmqn-rnm^mU hшumшmnLpjnLUUhp^ nL2шqpnLpjшU ^hUmpnUnttf: ¿nq^&nttf шUq-pшqшpЛ.hL hUf ulшUq^UшljшU hphf ^hmntpjntUUhp^ (C^hq^, ПшЬ^ш, Ъпр-^hq^) qhpшшhu¿шlшU qh^ntjgUhp^ ^hpinLbntp^Up, npnUf шtfpnq2nLpjшtfp ^ш^ npn2 ^m^&Uhpn^ lhpшphpnLtf hU ftniumurnmU^ шUlmшUqnLpjшU U цш2шцшипър]ши pшqшpшlшUnLp]шUp, щш2mщшUшlшU U hшpДшlnqшlшU hUшpшlnpnLp]nLUUhp^ qUшhшmtfшUp, ^U^hu UшU Ь^ш^ njnpmUhpnttf nnLuшuшшUjшU ^pnqntpjntUUhp^ qшpqшgtfшU tf^mnttfUhp^U rn. lшU^шmh-unttfUhp^U: £UUшpltfшU q^шшlhшnLtf hU ЛП ^pnqntpjntUUhpU о^ршд^-UшL tfшlшpqшlnLtf U hhnшUlшpш]^U щшUшlnptfшU ^ppntpjntUp. uqmnm-q^UtfшU pUшqшlшn^ opш^Uq^p U Uш^шqЬш]^U mbnttfUhp^ hnp^qnUp, ^U-qntump^L шщшhnЦш&nLpjшU ^Uq^pUhpp, hhnшhшp hqшUшlnl nшqtfшlш-pшlшU ^Uq^pUhp ^ntbh^nL hqшUшlUhpU rn. hUшpшlnpnLp]nLUUhpp, ^U^hu UшU шUlшшUqnLp]шU U цш2шцшUшlшU pшqшpшlшUnLp]шU шшpшpUnL]p шuцhlшUhp^ hшtfшqptfшU hшpghp:
ОЦЕНКА ВОЕННЫХ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЕЙ РФ: НЕКОТОРЫЕ ПОДХОДЫ СКАНДИНАВСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИХ ЦЕНТРОВ
ВВаагн Аглян
Резюме
Вопрос оценки военных возможностей РФ традиционно находится в центре внимания западных ведомственных, а также негосударственных исследовательских
структур. В данной статье мы анализируем ведомственные доклады трех скандинавских стран (Швеция, Дания, Норвегия), которые полностью или частично касаются безопасности и оборонной политики России, оценки ее оборонных и наступательных возможностей, а также прогнозов и тенденций развития российских возможностей в упомянутых сферах. Обсуждения фокусируются в основном на возможностях РФ на операциональном уровне и аспекте перспективного планирования: повестка сферы вооружений и горизонт проектных решений, задачи индустриального обеспечения, способы и возможности решения стратегических задач в долгосрочном плане, а также вопросы совмещения различных аспектов безопасности и оборонной политики.
ASSESSMENT OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES: SOME APPROACHES OF SCANDINAVIAN RESEARCH CENTERS
Vahagn Aglyan
Resume
Russian military capabilities have traditionally been in the focus of the Western governmental and non-governmental research communities' interests and within the scope of their professional competence. The article concentrates mainly on the three Scandinavian (Denmark, Sweden, and Norway) governmental reports on the intelligence and military risks assessments that fully of partly concern the Russia's capacities in security and defense policies developed over the recent periods, evaluation of offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as some forecasts and development trends projections. The major emphasis is placed upon the level of Russia's operational capacities and planning horizon: armaments acquisition pace, industrial capacities, capabilities to achieve military objectives, and the issues concerning defense and security policy coordination.
