CC BY
18
17. Чекушина Ю. В. Види штелектуально'1 м^ацп населення Украши / Ю. В. Чекушина // Держава та регюни. Серiя: Економша та пiдприeмництво. - 2013. - № 3. - С. 76 - 79 ; Chekushyna Yu. V. Vydy intelektualnoi mihratsii naselennia Ukrainy / Yu. V. Chekushyna // Derzhava ta rehiony. Seriia: Ekonomika ta pidpryiemnytstvo. - 2013. - № 3. - S. 76 - 79
Стаття надшшла до редакцп 10.05.2017 р.
A. Demydenko
THE CAUSES AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE INTELLECTUAL MIGRATION FROM UKRAINE
The article considers the problem of intellectual migration from Ukraine in the process of globalization, which is a certain threat to the national security of our state. The problem called "brain drain" became a main problem of Ukraine in the period of independence, and it is directly related to the transition to market relations, socio-political and economic instability during recent years. Since highly qualified specialists can not find the proper recognition and material satisfaction from the offered work in their homeland that's why they are forced to seek better economic conditions for themselves abroad. The author considers the reasons for the intellectual migration of Ukrainian citizens which are contingently classified according to the definitions "being pushed out" and " being attracted". The dominance of the economic factor plays a major role in the decision of leaving their own country. At the same time, the attention is focused on the feature of intellectual migration as the essential importance of the possibility and impossibility of professional realization in choosing a work place abroad.
During identifying the consequences of intellectual migration from Ukraine, there are negative ones, for instance, the loss of material costs of the donor country in the training of highly qualified specialists which work for the benefit of another country that receives prepared specialists; the deformation ofsociety's social basis that is the process of receiving the most active, educated and creative population and a middle class. All of this stops the economic development of society which leads to a natural decline of a living standards, thus, it creates new waves of migration.
Key words: intellectual migration, brain drain, specialists.
УДК: 32.327:159.922.4
L. Dorosh, J. Turchyn
BALTIC AND BLACK SEA UNION AS AN ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM OF REGIONAL SECURITY: PROSPECTS FOR UKRAINE
It is analyzed the probability of creating new security associations in the region of East Europe. It is investigated the idea and prospects of the Baltic and Black Sea Union (Intermarium) from the position of the apologetic and critical approaches. Emphasis is placed on the need for Ukraine to find ways of effective interaction with the states of the Eastern European region, as well as the importance of its role and place in creating a new security system within it.
Key words: international security, national security, Intermarium, Baltic and Black Sea Union.
In the context of contemporary challenges to international and national security the demand for severance and reconsideration of the logic of development of international relations, the identification of trends and the expectancy of collapse of the established "rules of the game", breach of the peace and the overcoming of the latest hybrid threats and challenges become a vital
necessity. Therefore, the elaboration of new systems of collective security, composed of the states that are suffering now or can experience in the future an invasion of the aggressor, is relevant both in the theoretical and practical dimensions.
Among the options of finding ways to ensure national security of Ukraine (in the absence of real guarantees from the international community on a whole and from the states of the "Nuclear Club" in particular), there are proposals about the necessity to accede to the collective security systems that have demonstrated their effectiveness, or to create new security associations in the region. In the first case, a lively discussion of the time frame, criteria and the probability of Ukraine's accession to NATO is being held among Ukrainian politicians and scientists. In the second case, we speak about new systems of collective security, which could be formed in the region and unite states, which directly border with the aggressor, and/or for which there exists a significant likelihood of an attack. In both cases, the threats and the continuation of hostilities in the East of Ukraine once again confirm the necessity of participation of our country, in one way or another, in a collective security system.
Since 1991, when Ukraine became independent, its political elite and analysts offered a variety of options to ensure national interests and security of the country. All the Presidents of Ukraine during their terms in office declared and tried to implement various concepts: multi-vector, non-alignment, rejection of non-block status, participation in collective security alliances, search of aid allies, etc. Today, in the situation of the military aggression by the Russian Federation, the shift of paradigm of the national security and defense consists in the combination of the ability of effective self-protection by using one's own armed forces and the search for partners-allies at the European and global levels which would help to resist security threats and challenges. Therefore, it became common among politicians of different ranks, as well as among analysts to work out proposals for creation of new security systems, which could include countries in respect of which there is a significant likelihood to be attacked by the aggressor at the present stage of establishment of the international order. Therefore, the study of different proposals on the possibility of Ukraine's accession to the existing systems of collective security as well as the initiation and creation with the active participation of Ukraine of new security alliances in the region as a possible reaction to new threats to the national and international security becomes relevant.
The analysis of the source base of this study shows the presence of a large number of scientific papers, analytical and journalistic research on the issues of searching by Ukraine for strategic partners at the present stage, the explanation of the causes of failure of implementation the vectors of strategic partnership of Ukraine with the European states and the USA, the reasoning for the change by Ukraine of its own national security strategy in relation to the other European and global actors. Many Ukrainian scientists take part in discussions regarding the ensurance of the national as well as the regional and international security. In particular, in the works of M. Artemov [1], M. Kapitonenko [5], A. Lazareva [9], H. Jaworska [22-23] it is analyzed the priorities faced by Ukraine in the sphere of guarantees of the national security; they identify the advantages and disadvantages of Ukraine's participation in NATO or other systems of collective security. As far as the proposals of formation of new collective security systems in the region are concerned, one should note analytical reports and copyright projects of O. Kramar [7-8], E. Lucas [10-13], A. Korbut [6], A. Umland [17-20]. These analysts focus on hypothetical strategies of the participants of such associations, the role of global leaders, they stress the decisive role of Ukraine in such associations, and they also trace the interaction options of such alliances with the already existing ones or with their individual members. Also, it should be noted that hypothetical suggestions and analytical reports concerning the possibilities of establishment and functioning in the nearest perspective of new systems of collective security are primarily vital for Ukrainian scientists, politicians, journalists and concerned activists [24]. In return, in European security discourse, unfortunately, the increase in the number of theoretical developments of the geopolitical
strategies of international actors is not observed, and, consequently, the security models to overbear the aggressor are not noted.
So, it should be noted that there is a significant number of theoretical and practical studies which examine the advantages and disadvantages of Ukraine's participation in collective security systems. At the same time, there are a limited number of conceptual studies that deal with the concerns of regional security, in particular in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as those that propose specific new mechanisms of institutionalized cooperation in the security sphere in response to a real threat. We are talking about the offers and specific ways of transformation of the regional security system (including the participation of global leaders), within the frame of which Ukraine and its neighbors ("first" and "second" order) would have found for themselves guarantees of protection against external aggression. Thus, the aim of this article is to study the probability of formation, with the participation of Ukraine, of new systems of collective security in Eastern Europe (in particular the Black and Baltic Sea Union), their advantages and disadvantages.
The proposal to establish a defense alliance in the region of the Baltic and Black Sea Arc aquires a particular popularity at the modern stage, which itself should be a document like the Charter of NATO (with real, not declared obligations of the security). The Union may be composed of Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Turkey, the Baltic and Caucasian states and other states with mandatory presence in its structure of the USA and Britain [7]. In general, in a wider interpretation it is a joint safe space or Alliance between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic seas.
The historian T. Snyder calls the region stretching from the Baltic to the Black sea, "bloody lands", they have in common a similar, mostly tragic, history. They do not have natural boundaries, only the neighborhood with the big countries - Russia and Germany which led to the fact that during a large part of European history they were forced to exist under the rule of this one or that one [12]. In the geopolitical, historical and geo-economic dimension this Union is referred to as "Central Europe" in the broadest sense of the word - a group of the states between states EU-15 (which entered the EU in 1995 and is often informally referred to as "Old Europe") and two Eurasian Nations - Russia and Turkey [8].
Projects of such a Union appeared after the First World War. Here, we should recall the ideas of the Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski about the Alliance "Intermarium", to which Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Finland should enter. The project of creating the Baltic and Black Sea Axis had been developed by the Ukrainian intellectuals in the first half of the twentieth century, as well. In particular, the creation of such a Union was described by the Ukrainian public and political figure Yurij Lypa and the first President of UPR M. Hrushevskyj took part in its development. For example, Yu. Lypa had developed a geopolitical doctrine ("Black Sea Doctrine"), highlighting the historical continuity of the orientation of the axis North - South, from Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, Asia Minor and the Middle East [14]. In American geopolitics, this Union is called "Intermarium". The main purpose of this Association is the desire to convert the regional object to the collective subject of global politics, able to compete for global leadership.
Analyzing the proposal of establishing such a unit, analysts propose to use the experience of military and political unions, which during the Cold War created the most active members of the Alliance in Asia and the Pacific. We intend thereby a kind of "copies" of NATO, which along with the local states belonged to its individual members (USA, UK, Turkey, France), which had their interests in this particular region [7]. Such a regional collective security system could be a transitional stage on the way of joining all members of the Alliance, as well as ensuring a "nuclear umbrella" and an efficient military support by the United States, Britain, other members in case of aggression against the members of arc from the side of a "third" force.
In general, the goals of this new Alliance about mutual support have to be: strengthening of the national security of the participating countries, their international engagement, institutional
cohesion and political confidence; deterring Russia from continuing the old ones and launching new hybrid (information, commercial and other) wars against member-states; strengthening of freedom, range, weight and influence of member-states in the international arena [17].
Of course, the idea of Intermarium is only an offer, about which, until recently, none of the officials have spoken so far; only heated debates have been conducted among politicians, public figures, analysts and journalists of Ukraine, Poland, Belarus and Lithuania. Today, however, there is a high probability of realization of such ideas. It is, in particular, the initiative of creating a new geopolitical bloc in Ukraine, Poland and Romania, which has been proclaimed by the newly elected President of Poland, Andrzej Duda [4, P.4]. According to the President of Poland A. Duda, "the state is strong then, when it is surrounded by allies, it is also an element of increasing power in the world. Today, there are signals from the heads of coutries in the region, which illustrate the desire to start meetings and negotiations [4, P. 4]. According to K. Hartwell and K. Sobel, Poland, especially today, desires the scenario of expansion of cooperation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. We are talking about a slow increase in the distance between Poland and the EU for the sake of the restoration of the "regional Alliance" [3].
The Black and Baltic Sea Union has both its supporters and critics. So, from an apologetic point of view, the formation of the Alliance is especially important for Central and Eastern Europe for which a durable and safe Union is the most necessary and vital in the framework of which a joint strategic approach of member-states to security in Europe will be established. It is Poland and the Baltic states which should become partners capable to support Ukraine in countering aggression from the East, as it is threatening their national sovereignty, territorial integrity and core interests. E. Lucas notes that these countries have a deep culture of strategic vision. In these countries both the public and the professional politicians realize the need for a serious approach to defense [10].
A. Umland emphasizing the importance of Intermarium, notes that such an Alliance would be a signal to Russia that some of the conflicts that Moscow has initiated, is planning to begin or is maintaining on its Western and South-Western borders, will mean for Russia having to confont not only separate weakened bordering countries in the future, but strong opponents, as well. The conflict which has already started or a future conflict with Russia may turn into a multilateral confrontation with a significant number of states-participants. In addition, according to A. Umland, such a formation will not be a threat or competitor to the European Union, but only a chance to achieve the development of a much-needed security framework for Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region until Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will be included in the EU [19]. Finally, the analyst notes that the cooperation potential between the countries-members of the "Intermarium" has already been established, in particular, at the bilateral and trilateral basis (for example, in the form of bilateral initiatives of Ukraine and Poland or Turkey, the development of the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian military brigade etc.) [18].
The union of these states into one economic, political and military alliance would manifest the possibility of the restructuring of the European geopolitical "chessboard", because this Union could compete with such states as France and Britain, to "overtake" the potential of Russia. It is not only geopolitical benefits, but also industrial and trade benefits which these countries could obtain by freely competing on the European and international markets. Geopolitically such an Association "completely blocks" a land route from Europe via the Baltic and Black Seas into Asia. There are substantial benefits of such a Union of states in the military sphere [21].
However, in the case of Intermarium they often argue about the absence, in modern conditions, of the necessity to create a close full-scale Alliance. What is intended is only a limited and focused anti-Imperial defense Treaty of a group of countries that are willing to help each other in a hybrid war conducted by other states against them. First and foremost, the emphasis is made on the anti-Putin coalition of states that want to demonstrate a willingness to actively and diversely help each other in the continuing bilateral conflicts with Russia. A. Umland notes that such items
can be included to the cooperation of the states of Intermarium as: multilateral coordination of economic and other sanctions; mutual supply of lethal defensive weapons; simplification of the transboundary movement of volunteer battalions; cooperation in energy security and energy transportation; mutual assistance in combat training and modernization of weapons; exchange of strategic, counterintelligenc and other data; creation of joint military and industrial enterprises and development projects; logistical support in the struggle against hybrid and military activities; joint international initiatives to counter the enemy propaganda; exchange of military advisers and other experts; and / or support of the creation of transnational non-governmental organizations of Intermarium. To this list the analyst adds the possibility of other targeted projects that relate to secondary but no less important areas - cooperation of "think tanks" and educational institutions, international tourism, cultural exchange etc. [17].
Critics of this political and security union are looking for its weak sides. These include, first of all, the extraordinary internal diversity, the division of this region ranging from the ethno-religious composition of the population to economic and trade relations. For instance, today, there is a lack of mutual understanding between Czechs and Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians, Ukrainians and Poles. In the latter case, researchers often draw attention to the persistent blowing up of the resentment against Ukrainians by the Russian agents in Poland given the ethnic conflict that took place in Volhyn during the Second World War [15]. According to E. Lucas, the mentioned diversity can not only fail but will be counterproductive [12].
In the context of security, the lack of the common strategy against modern hybrid threats eliminates the possibility of forming a common front. For example, analyzing the activity of the Vishegrad group, the analysts affirm that the members of this subregional grouping after the accession to NATO and the EU, "rested on the laurels of their success", and consequently lost the motivation to act and have not developed a shared vision for their future political and security priorities [6].
In addition, taking into account the situational solidarity of the members of the Vishegrad group, as well as separate security strategies of Poland and the Baltic states, it should be noted that, in general, clear evidence is seen today which certifies the presence or absence of will on the part of these states to integrate to a more or less stable association with certain interests. In particular, analysts point out that the option to enforce formation of an Association for the Central European States is inconvenient because of the lack within it of a clear hegemon and the presence of powerful players at the external borders. Therefore, it is all about the voluntariness of integration that is possible on the basis of common economic interests and/or protection against common threats [8].
Given today's security threats, these states in the vast majority are looking for support in the framework of the existing system of collective security - NATO or its individual member-states, rather than trying concurrently to build a regional security network (including the involvement of Nordic States), in which they are less dependent on Western European allies [6]. The analysts say that this Union will be viable only under the leadership of the USA, which is an essential partner for all the countries in the region [2]. However, the proposed strategy by individual American experts of forming a regional Alliance with the goal of long-term containment of Russia has not received a clear support of the US government up till now.
Ukraine in those international discussions is either rarely mentioned or not at all, even in the status of a potential partner in regional security network. However, in the present circumstances, if Ukraine does not take full part in the Euro-Atlantic security system, it will be deprived of guarantees of its own security [23]. Given this skepticism about the partnership of Ukraine in security alliances we should agree with the opinion of E. Lucas that modern Europe is divided, on the one hand, into countries, the elites of which are afraid of Russian revisionism, and the countries the elites of which are not afraid of it. Based on this division and on the growth in the number of states that are aware of the likelihood of aggression, it is likely that formation of a Nordic-Baltic-
Polish Alliance security (with the possible support by the United States or the United Kingdom) is real, and this formation will not take into account the division into participants and non-participants of NATO [11].
Today, Ukraine should be actively involved in the establishment of such security unions, but it needs to make efforts of its own in the field of security and defense, as the help of partners may be late in coming. This is confirmed by the experience of most members of the European Union, which have long been accustomed to rely on NATO, delegating their powers to protect their territory against possible external threats and, in fact, have renounced to invest in its own defense. Today, the majority of the members of NATO and the EU realized that they have to develop their own strategic position on the national, regional and continental security, to develop proper intelligence, the army, and develop a military culture, and become military stronger [9].
European and Euro-Atlantic prospects of Ukraine today are explicitly normative; however, they are complex and contradictory in their realization. In the light of hybrid threats to the security, the European and North American partners have finally begun to accept Ukraine as a full partner. Ukrainian analysts suggest that the initiative in the creation of new systems of collective security should be taken over by Kyiv [24, P. 67]. This is possible only in case of positive results of internal reforms in Ukraine, the supporting of plans for future changes and proposals of the latest strategic visions of the regional policy structure and place of Ukraine in it.
Analysts today have noted that the current security structure of Europe is not sufficiently effective; however, alternative competent entities do not exist [17]. Therefore, they believe that the reconfiguration of interstate relations in the region of Central and Eastern Europe is particularly urgent, and they propose the creation of a Confederation of free and independent states, which are linked together in a military and economic Union based on cultural and civilizational similarities. We are talking about integration of Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia. To this Union they propose to add Scandinavian states, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. This geopolitical and geo-economic bloc is called the foundation for joint economic development of all Europe [15].
It is clear that Ukraine's accession to NATO is unlikely in the mid term, despite the growing public support of it. Hence, it is necessary today to develop our own strategic and tactical action plans that would include various options of national and European security. In the case of a long delay of our country's membership in NATO, this new Alliance needs to develop a new format for relations: to enter into a kind of "Union" and to create a common area of collective security, to strengthen and deepen cooperation in all spheres. Ukraine should not ignore other possible security alliances, which might, at the present stage, become the proper response to hybrid threats to national interests and security of regional states. So, the studies of the latest developments, proposals and concepts are promising, especially those which are offered by analysts and politicians concerning the probable alternatives of the future development and the geopolitical choice of Ukraine in the searching of its place on the political map of the region and the planet.
Список використано1 лггератури
1. Артемов М. Континентальный климакс [Электронный ресурс] / М. Артемов // Всеукрашська експертна мережа. - 2014. - 12 трав. - Режим доступу : http://www.experts.in.ua/inform/smi/detail.php?ID=108020 ; Artemov M. Kontinentalnyy klimaks [Elektronnyy resurs] / M. Artemov // Vseukrainska ekspertna merezha. - 2014. - 12 trav. - Rezhym dostupu : http://www.experts.in.ua/inform/smi/detail.php?ID=108020
2. Валеева Ю. Виклики европейськш архiтектурi безпеки: украшський контекст [Електронний ресурс] / Ю. Валеева // Зовшшш справи. - Режим доступу : http://uaforeignaffairs.com/en/expert-opinion/view/article/vikliki-jevropeiskii-arkhitekturi-bezpeki-ukrajinski/ ; Valieieva Yu. Vyklyky yevropeiskii arkhitekturi bezpeky: ukrainskyi kontekst [Elektronnyi resurs] / Yu. Valieieva // Zovnishni spravy. - Rezhym dostupu :
http://uaforeignaffairs.com/en/expert-opinion/view/article/vikliki-jevropeiskii-arkhitekturi-bezpeki-ukrajinski/
3. Гартвелл К. А. Разом зручшше? Який формат eK0H0MÎ4H0ï штеграцп вигiдний Центрально-Схщнш GBponi [Електронний ресурс] / К. А. Гартвелл, К. Зубель // Укра'нський тиждень. - 2015. - 27 листоп. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/World/151823 ; Hartvell K. A. Razom zruchnishe? Yakyi format ekonomichnoi intehratsii vyhidnyi Tsentralno-Skhidnii Yevropi [Elektronnyi resurs] / K. A. Hartvell, K. Zubel // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2015. -
27 lystop. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/World/151823
4. Грицик Ю. Вщ моря до моря / Ю. Грицик // Експрес. - 2015. - Серпень 13-20. - С.4 ; Hrytsyk Yu. Vid moria do moria / Yu. Hrytsyk // Ekspres. - 2015. - Serpen 13-20. - S.4
5. Каттоненко М. Украша-НАТО: час нових можливостей [Електронний ресурс] / М. Каттоненко // ZN.UA. - 2015. - 15 квт - Режим доступу: http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/ukrayina-nato-chas-novih-mozhlivostey-_.html ; Kapitonenko M. Ukraina-NATO: chas novykh mozhlyvostei [Elektronnyi resurs] / M. Kapitonenko // ZN.UA. -2015. - 15 kvit. - Rezhym dostupu: http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/ukrayina-nato-chas-novih-mozhlivostey-_.html
6. Корбут А. Сусщська незгода [Електронний ресурс] / А. Корбут // Украшський тиждень. - 2015. - 25 черв. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/World/139400 ; Korbut A. Susidska nezghoda [Elektronnyi resurs] / A. Korbut // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2015. - 25 cherv. -Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/World/139400
7. Крамар О. Вийняти голову з тску [Електронний ресурс] / О. Крамар // Украшський тиждень. - 2014. - 18 квт - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Politics/107233 ; Kramar O. Vyiniaty holovu z pisku [Elektronnyi resurs] / O. Kramar // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2014. - 18 kvit.
- Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Politics/107233
8. Крамар О. Мiжмор'я: мiж щеею та реальшстю [Електронний ресурс] / О. Крамар // Украшський тиждень. - 2015. - 27 листоп. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Economics/152581 ; Kramar O. Vyiniaty holovu z pisku [Elektronnyi resurs] / O. Kramar // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2014. - 18 kvit. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Politics/107233
9. Лазарева А. Зараз або школи. Об'еднана Свропа потребуе стльно:' безпеково'' та оборонно':! стратеги [Електронний ресурс] / А. Лазарева // Укра'нський тиждень. - 2013. -
28 берез. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/World/75204 ; Lazareva A. Zaraz abo nikoly. Obiednana Yevropa potrebuie spilnoi bezpekovoi ta oboronnoi stratehii [Elektronnyi resurs] / A. Lazareva // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2013. - 28 berez. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/World/75204
10. Лукас Е. Нова конф^уращя безпеки [Електронний ресурс] /Е. Лукас // Укра'нський тиждень. - 2015. - 16 квгг. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/134918 ; Lukas E. Nova konfihuratsiia bezpeky [Elektronnyi resurs] /E. Lukas // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2015. - 16 kvit. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/134918
11. Лукас Е. Новий оборонний альянс [Електронний ресурс] / Е. Лукас // Укра'нський тиждень. - 2015. - 25 черв. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/139407 ; Lukas E. Novyi oboronnyi alians [Elektronnyi resurs] / E. Lukas // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2015. - 25 cherv.
- Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/139407
12. Лукас Е. Уявне мiжмор'я [Електронний ресурс] / Е. Лукас // Укра'нський тиждень.
- 2015. - 27 листоп. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/151822 ; Lukas E. Uiavne mizhmoria [Elektronnyi resurs] / E. Lukas // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2015. - 27 lystop. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/151822
13. Лукас Е. Ядерне схлипування [Електронний ресурс] / Е. Лукас // Укра'нський тиждень. - 2014. - 6 жовт. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/120475 ; Lukas E.
Yaderne skhlypuvannia [Elektronnyi resurs] / E. Lukas // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2014. - 6 zhovt.
- Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/120475
14. Осадчий Т. Новообраний президент Польщi виступив за створення Балто-Чорноморського блоку держав [Електронний ресурс] / Т. Осадчий // Глобал Анал^ик. -Режим доступу : http://www.global-analityk. com/%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1 %96%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA %D0%B0/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B 1 %D1%80%D0%B0%D 0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9-
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1 %8C%D1%89%D1%96-
%D0%B2%D0%B 8%D1%81%D1%82%D1%83%D0%BF/ ; Osadchyi T. Novoobranyi prezydent Polshchi vystupyv za stvorennia Balto-Chornomorskoho bloku derzhav [Elektronnyi resurs] / T. Osadchyi // Hlobal Analityk. - Rezhym dostupu : http://www.global-analityk. com/%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1 %96%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA %D0%B0/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BE%D0%B 1 %D1%80%D0%B0%D 0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9-
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1 %8C%D1%89%D1%96-%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D1%83%D0%BF/
15. Рахманний О. Геополiтичний та економiчний блок Балто-Чорноморських держав як альтернатива до розпаду Евросоюзу [Електронний ресурс] / О. Рахманний // Глобал аналггик. - Режим доступу : http://www.global-anaHtyk.com/аналiтика/геополiтичний-та-економiчний-блок-ба/ ; Rakhmannyi O. Heopolitychnyi ta ekonomichnyi blok Balto-Chornomorskykh derzhav yak alternatyva do rozpadu Yevrosoiuzu [Elektronnyi resurs] / O. Rakhmannyi // Hlobal analityk. - Rezhym dostupu : http://www.global-analityk.com/analityka/heopolitychnyi-ta-ekonomichnyi-blok-ba/
16. Сунгуровський М. Геопол^ичний аналiз балансу сил i змш у ньому на фонi украшсько-росшського конфлшту [Електронний ресурс] / М. Сунгуровський // Центр Разумкова. - Режим доступу: http://old.razumkov.org.ua/ukr/article.php?news_id=1121 ; Sunhurovskyi M. Heopolitychnyi analiz balansu syl i zmin u nomu na foni ukrainsko-rosiiskoho konfliktu [Elektronnyi resurs] / M. Sunhurovskyi // Tsentr Razumkova. - Rezhym dostupu: http://old.razumkov.org.ua/ukr/article.php?news_id=1121
17. Умланд А. Пакт Восточной Европы и Турции против российского неоимпериализма [Електронний ресурс] / А. Умланд // Главком. - 2016. - 23 квггня. - Режим доступу: http://glavcom.ua/columns/umland/347109-pakt-vostochnoj-evropy-i-turtsii-protiv-rossijskogo-neoimperializma.html ; Umland A. Pakt Vostochnoi Evropbi y Turtsyy protyv rossyiskoho neoymperyalyzma [Elektronnyi resurs] / A. Umland // Hlavkom. - 2016. - 23 kvitnia.
- Rezhym dostupu: http://glavcom.ua/columns/umland/347109-pakt-vostochnoj-evropy-i-turtsii-protiv-rossijskogo-neoimperializma.html
18. Умланд А. План «Млжмор'я». Гуртом i Роаю легше зупинити [Електронний ресурс] / А. Умланд // Главком. - 2016. - 4 липня. - Режим доступу : http://glavcom.ua/publications/plan-mizhmorya-gurtom-i-rosiyu-legshe-zupiniti-359782.html ; Umland A. Plan «Mizhmoria». Hurtom i Rosiiu lehshe zupynyty [Elektronnyi resurs] / A. Umland // Hlavkom. - 2016. - 4 lypnia. - Rezhym dostupu : http://glavcom.ua/publications/plan-mizhmorya-gurtom-i-rosiyu-legshe-zupiniti-359782.html
19. Умланд А. Россию остановят страны Междуморья [Электронный ресурс] / А. Умланд. . - Режим доступа : http://ua24ua.info/rossiyu_ostanovyat_strani_megdumorya/ ; Umland A. Rossiyu ostanovyat strany Mezhdumorya [Elektronnyy resurs] / A. Umland. . -Rezhim dostupa : http://ua24ua.info/rossiyu_ostanovyat_strani_megdumorya/
20. Умланд А. Сенс вшськово-пол^ичного союзу «М!жмор'я» - захист вщ Росп [Електронний ресурс] / А. Умланд // Еспресо. - 2016. - 16 черв. - Режим доступу : http://espreso.tv/article/2016/06/16/ydeya_quotmezhdumoryaquot_uzhe_voploschaetsya_v_neko torykh_otnoshenyyakh_umland ; Umland A. Sens viiskovo-politychnoho soiuzu «Mizhmoria» -zakhyst vid Rosii [Elektronnyi resurs] / A. Umland // Espreso. - 2016. - 16 cherv. - Rezhym dostupu : http://espreso.tv/article/2016/06/16/ydeya_quotmezhdumoryaquot_uzhe_voploschaetsya_v_neko torykh_otnoshenyyakh_umland
21. Форостовец С. Обама не прочь превратить Киев в Хельсинки [Електронний ресурс] / С. Форостовец // FINANCE.UA. - 2014. - 16 черв. - Режим доступу : http://news.finance.ua/ru/news/-/327991/obama-ne-proch-prevratit-kiev-v-helsinki ; Forostovets S. Obama ne proch prevratyt Kyev v Khelsynky [Elektronnyi resurs] / S. Forostovets // FINANCE.UA. - 2014. - 16 cherv. - Rezhym dostupu : http://news.finance.ua/ru/news/-/327991/obama-ne-proch-prevratit-kiev-v-helsinki
22. Яворська Г. Безпекова пол^ика Украши в контекст формування системи колективно}! безпеки в Сврот: Анал^ична записка [Електронний ресурс] / Г. Яворська // Нащональний шститут стратепчних дослщжень. - Режим доступу: www.niss.gov.ua/articles/421 ; Yavorska H. Bezpekova polityka Ukrainy v konteksti formuvannia systemy kolektyvnoi bezpeky v Yevropi: Analitychna zapyska [Elektronnyi resurs] / H. Yavorska // Natsionalnyi instytut stratehichnykh doslidzhen. - Rezhym dostupu: www.niss.gov.ua/articles/421
23. Яворська Г. Свропейська безпека i НАТО [Електронний ресурс] / Г. Яворська // Украшський тиждень. - 2008. - 29 лют. - Режим доступу : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/1197 ; Yavorska H. Yevropeiska bezpeka i NATO [Elektronnyi resurs] / H. Yavorska // Ukrainskyi tyzhden. - 2008. - 29 liut. - Rezhym dostupu : http://tyzhden.ua/Columns/50/1197
24. Dorosh L. Alternative New Collective Security Models: Options for Countries of Eastern Europe / L. Dorosh, Y. Turchyn // Studia Politica. Romanian Political Science Review. - 2016. -Vol. XVI, № 1. - Р. 53-67
Стаття надшшла до редакцп 10.05.2017 р.
Л. Дорош, Я. Турчин
БАЛТО-ЧОРНОМОРСЬКИЙ СОЮЗ ЯК АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНА СИСТЕМА КОЛЕКТИВНО1 БЕЗПЕКИ: ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ ДЛЯ УКРА1НИ
Проанал1зовано м1ру в1рог1дност1 утворення новог системи колективног безпеки, до складу яких входили б держави, можлив1сть нападу агресора на яких е особливо реальною на сучасному етат становлення глобального м1жнародного порядку. Доведено, що серед варгантгв пошуку шлях1в забезпечення нацюнальног безпеки Украгни (у випадку в1дсутност1 реальних гарантт з боку м1жнародного ствтовариства загалом та держав «ядерного клубу» зокрема) iснують пропозицгг щодо необх1дност1 гг долучення до систем колективног безпеки, як засвiдчили свою ефективтсть (НАТО), або ж створення нових безпекових об'еднань у регют. До^джено iдею та перспективи створення Балто-Чорноморського союзу (Iнтермарiум) з позици апологетичного та критичного пiдходiв до такого геополтичного та геоекономiчного об'еднання держав. Доводиться необхiднiсть реконф^ураци мiждержавних вiдносин у регют Центральног та Схiдног Свропи у контекстi творення конфедераци вшьних i незалежних держав, як пов 'язаш у вшськовий та економiчний союз на основi культурно-цившзацтно'г подiбностi. Йдеться про об'еднання Украгни, БыоруЫ, держав Балти, Польщi, Чехи, Словаччини, Угорщини та Хорваты. До такого блоку пропонують залучити й держави Скандинава, Болгарт, Румунт та Туреччину, Азербайджан та Грузю. Стверджуеться, що до головних цшей такого альянсу ^iд вiдносити: посилення нацюнальног безпеки крагн-учасниць, гх мiжнародно'г залученостi, iнституцiйно'г згоди та полтичног впевненостi у собi;
стримування РФ eid продовження та розв'язання традицтних та ггбридних (тформацтних, торгових та тших) воен проти держав-члешв; посилення свободи, дiапазону, ваги та впливу держав-члешв на мiжнароднi арет. Наголошено на необхiдностi пошуку Украгною шляхiв ефективног взаемоди з державами схiдноевропейського регюну, а також значенш гг ролi та мюця у творенш новог системи безпеки у його межах, як могли б на сучасному етат стати належною вiдповiддю гiбридним загрозам нацюнальним ттересам та безпец держав регюну.
Клю^о^^ слова: мiжнародна безпека, нацюнальна безпека, Iнтермарiум, Балто-Чорноморський союз.
UDK 327.7:323(477)
M. Zdorovega, O. Ivasechko
THE MATRIX OF THE SWOT-ANALYSIS TO THE OSCE FUNCTIONING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CONFLICT IN THE EAST OF UKRAINE
The key trends of cooperation between Ukraine and the OSCE, the place of our country in the process of shaping European security and stability are analyzed. The attention is paid to the achievements of Ukraine in the year of its chairmanship of the OSCE (2013). The role of the Organization in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Eastern Ukraine is characterized.
In particular, attention is focused on evaluating the effectiveness of the OSCE in a hybrid war carried out by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The modern formats of cooperation between Ukraine and the OSCE - multipurpose and diverse programs and projects aimed at solving urgent problems of social development, namely in the area of legal reform, education, human rights, counteracting organized crime, terrorism and human trafficking, reform of armed forces, environmental protection, and so on. As a result, of the matrix of the SWOT - analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to Ukraine's participation in the OSCE - are revealed.
As a conclusion, extremely important step for Ukraine today is to intensify its participation in shaping the mechanisms of European collective security, in particular, to support initiatives aimed at improving the climate of confidence and stability on the basic level of international security in the region. The important fact is that the Ukrainian side has advocated the reform of the OSCE to improve its effectiveness in resisting the latest threats and challenges. Non-participation of Ukraine in European integration processes in the field of security means lack of leverage over European security in general. Thus, the counteracting by our own means to the latest threats is considered to be impossible for the National Security of Ukraine in the context of globalization. Evaluating the effectiveness of the OSCE in Eastern Ukraine, it should be taken into account that this structure does not provide armed support and merely cannot directly affect the balance ofpowers in the conflict. The main tasks of the OSCE are gathering information, reporting on the security situation and establishing facts, particularly about specific events on the ground. Despite all the deficiencies and comments on the activities of the OSCE in Ukraine, the organization, under its unique safe mandate, plays the key role in the context of finding a peaceful solution to the situation in Eastern Ukraine.
Keywords: OSCE, Special Monitoring Mission, hybrid warfare, Russian-Ukrainian conflict, security and cooperation.
