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then, hated by Washington. To create disruptions in the world energy market to raise oil and gas prices and to "choke" with these high prices its main competitor in the world market -China. To create chaos in the Middle East in accordance with the American concept of "managed chaos" in order to ensure the dominance of the United States in this most important strategic region of the world. To provide orders for the military-industrial complex, since to satisfy the requests of influential arms magnates. Barack Obama and the Democratic Party needed some impressive successes on the foreign policy front on the eve of the elections.
The author does not doubt that although ICIS has not yet suffered its defeat, the spring that set in motion the ISIS Islamist army has already burst.
Author of the abstract - N. Ginesina
2017.03.005. KHRISTINA TURINSKAYA. LIBYA. IS THE RETURN TO FEDERALISM POSSIBLE? // "Asia i Africa segodnia", Moscow, 2015, № 8, P. 18-23.
Keywords: Libya, federalism, disintegration, autonomy, unitarianism, M.Gaddafi, H. Haftar, Islamic extremists.
Khristina Turinskaya,
Ph.D. (Hist.),
Institute for African Studies,
Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, RAS
The author writes that one can observe the general increased interest in federalism and the desire to change the principles of statehood in the face of growing instability in many countries, the emergence of new foci of separatist movements. Modern Libya is one of the examples of the return, or turning anew to the federal idea.
The "fix" to historic areas is being observed in the disintegration process in Libya today. The return to federalism becomes a popular subject in public and political discourse, regional and tribal identity of the Libyans remains unchanged. Cyrenaica politicians require the return to the federal system for the whole country. Cyrenaica, an Emirate in the past, later the Eastern province of the federative Libya, and now a self-proclaimed autonomy again appears as an independent political entity in the region, while occupying an intermediate position. De jure it remains part of a formally unified Libya, de facto Cyrenaica is a quasi-state with its own authorities and army.
The attempt to consolidate Western Tripolitania - the Western territory, Cyrenaica - the Eastern one and Fezzan - the Southern one into a single colony was carried out by Italy in the first third of the twentieth century. During the Second World War, Libya was divided: the British occupied Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, Fezzan was occupied by the French. After the war, by the decision of the UN these historic regions became a sovereign federative state: in December 1951 on the territory of Libya there appeared an independent United Kingdom. Idris I (1890-1983), the head of religious and political order of Senussi and the Emir of Cyrenaica, was proclaimed the king of all Libya. Tripoli, the capital of Tripolitania, and Benghazi, the capital of Cyrenaica, became equal status centers of the newly formed state.
The provinces had broad autonomy, its own legislative and executive power bodies.
In the early 1950s, the introduction of such a system met the interests of the king: the federative monarchy consisted of de facto independent regions, and Cyrenaica acquired equal status, compared to Tripolitania, which would become a potential dominant, were Libya a unitary state. At the same time, the Senussi managed to neutralize the Tripolitania leaders who formed the political opposition to the king and advocated unitarianism. The key to survival of the young United Kingdom was to smooth contradictions between the provinces, to balance their relations with the federal center.
Not only the UN's position on the Libyan issue, but also the country's dependence on Western aid, political pressure from
Britain and Pro-British sympathies of Idris I can explain the fact of introduction of federalism in Libya. Britain suggested a federative model of government for many countries of its former realms when it granted independence to them. However, in most cases, these "imposed" federations were in a short time replaced by unitary systems: African leaders perceived federalism as a tool of neo-colonialism and an obstacle to construction of a single nation-state.
In Libya the unitary system was also introduced and regional autonomy was abolished. "The fragile product of bargaining and compromise", the result of the struggle between various internal and external "interest groups", the federal state in Libya "lasted" for 12 years. In 1963, in accordance with the amendments to the Constitution, the country was named not "United Kingdom", but "Kingdom". The "united" Libya has become the "unified".
Instead of the three provinces the state was divided into 10 governorates (mukhafaza). With the consolidation of statehood, ideology of Arab nationalism, emergence of mass movements Pro-Western orientation of Libya was undergoing certain changes. Discontent with wide economic and military presence of the Western powers was growing in the country. In 1964, the Parliament raised the question of the elimination of the British and American military bases placed in its territory, which is what happened after the fall of the monarchy, with the change of the regime.
Gradual transition from the orientation to the West and refusal of its help became all the more possible when significant oil reserves were discovered in 1959 in Cyrenaica, that is, in the Eastern part of the desert of Kartika in Selten area. Its export began from 1961. In subsequent years new oilfields were discovered and sales of hydrocarbons to external markets increased sharply. Thus, the influx of petrodollars into Libya began in the period of existence of the federative system in the country. According to Petroleum Law of 1955 the territory of Libya was divided into four zones for the placement of concessions. With the start of full-scale production and export of oil, the state budget increased significantly; the economy, the
demographic situation, social and cultural development of Libya began to change rapidly.
It was in the midst of the "oil boom" that the federative model started to be seen as inefficient and burdensome for Libya, as an obstacle in the path to formation of a national state, slowing economic development and planning across the country. The autonomy of the provinces limited the ability of the central government to use the growing oil revenues, and Idris I initiated changes in the constitution providing for the rejection of federalism. The purpose of the unitary monarchy was to put an end to the rivalry of the regions and the two capitals, to make Cyrenaica oil the property of a unified Libyan state. Now only the central government in the person of the king could distribute oil revenues.
The military coup of 1969 and the rise to power of Colonel Muammar Qaddafi (1942-2011) marked the transition from an elite-clannish, oligarchic system through republic to a "direct democracy", the economic basis of which was state capitalism. The functions of unitary system in Libya were changing. After 1969 the unitary system continued to work on concentration of power in the hands of Gaddafi. Unitarianism opposed the centrifugal tendencies in the state, helped to mitigate the regionalism, ensured redistribution of the oil rent across the country, expanding the social base of the regime. Strengthening the unitary system in Libya, the "Arab nationalist" Gaddafi forced the creation of international associations of the countries of Africa. Libya was recognized as not only part of the "Arab nation", the "Arab Fatherland", but also as part of Africa. Pan-arabist aspirations of Tripoli in 1970-1980s took the form of federative projects involving the North African countries (Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco), as well as Syria. All the attempts to organize unions in the "Arab trend" failed, as well as Gaddafi's claims of to be the leader of the left forces in the Arab world.
Under Gaddafi the administrative and territorial structure of Libya changed several times. Despite the fact that the historic areas were divided into smaller territorial units the concepts of the former three provinces and their borders remained.
Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan relived after Gaddafi. The researcher notes the importance of Cyrenaica in the country's history. This region was the backbone to the authority of the king, his "patrimony", the center of Senussism in Libya. The first oil deposits, which significantly influenced the course of development of the state were discovered there. It was not by chance that in 2011 Cyrenaica and its capital Benghazi became a stronghold of the opponents of Muammar Gaddafi, and in the "post-Gaddafi" era - the center of the movement for the return to federalism. It was a federative model that would enable Cyrenaica to have an independent economy, and give the local elites the possibility to control the oil resources of the region.
Libya "after M. Gaddafi" is in the state of territorial disintegration, economic crisis, socio-political fragmentation. The new regime in Tripoli proved to be unable to control not only Cyrenaica and Fezzan, but even Tripolitania itself. Power was concentrated in the hands of regional and local leaders, chiefs and warlords, illegal armed formations (militias) and religious extremists became very active, social marginalization of Libyans and mass apathy increased, inter-tribal strife exacerbated. The oil and gas facilities are subject to constant attacks, the illegal export of oil is practiced. In 2012, autonomy was declared in Cyrenaica and the return to the Federal Constitution of 1951 was announced. The leader of the autonomy and the self-proclaimed Transitional Council of Cyrenaica is Sheikh Ahmed al-Senussi, from the family of Idris I.
In 2013, the autonomy was also proclaimed and in Fezzan. The regions declared that they do no longer intend to accept the policy of the center ignoring their interests. The Senussi, supporters of federalism, threatened that the Eastern territory would withdraw from Libya, in case their requirements were not satisfied. Local activists were dissatisfied with the allocation of seats in the national Parliament and the Constituent Assembly, opining that the interests of the regions were not taken into account, and advocated the equal representation of regions regardless of population size. Administrative decentralization as a reasonable alternative to federalism does not satisfied the Cyrenaica autonomists. Federalism in Libya was abandoned in
the 1960s, not only because the central power perceived it as a hindrance to overcoming the regionalism and fragmentation, but also because this system proved to be expensive, cumbersome, leading to dysfunction of management. The emerging territorial disintegration will inevitably affect the operation of the existing infrastructure, including the transportation of petroleum products and fresh water. Besides the economic element, it is important to consider the socio-political aspect of the problem. Not only in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica federalist ideas and slogans face opposition.
The debate over federalism reflects the struggle of interest groups and opposition leaders at the local, regional and national levels. Some experts support the introduction of the federative system as a way to fix the balance of power established in the days of the revolution and during the time elapsed since the overthrow of Gaddafi, to legitimize new local centers which do not want to obey the authorities in Tripoli. The opinions of Libyans divided: whether they should consider the federalism a path to the inevitable collapse or, on the contrary, the means of preserving the territorial integrity of the country. In the current climate of chaos, it is impossible to solve the political, social, and economic problems of the country. The fracture of the Libyan society is following several lines simultaneously: clan, tribe, region, religion, ideology. The statehood is in a systemic crisis, and it could be the only guarantor of fulfillment of the Libyan people's demands.
The country still has no permanent constitution, the temporary Transition Period Constitutional Declaration approved by the national Transitional Council of the Libyan Republic in August 2011 is still in force. In February 2014, elections for the Constituent Assembly (CA) were held. The CA must develop a draft Constitution and put it to the referendum in 2015, The CA headquarters not in Tripoli, but in Eastern Libya, in El-Beida, and tries to be "equidistant" from all political factions. The legislators understand that the delay in adoption of the new Constitution affects detrimentally the already tense situation in the country. The return to the monarchy and to the Constitution of 1951, as amended are debated. Perhaps the planned new
Constitution would set out the principles of administrative decentralization, which could act as a reasonable substitute for the full transition or return to the federative model
The balance of power in the country is constantly changing, the power "flows" from one center to another. Fighting of armed groups among themselves and against the government continues, the confrontation between the Islamists and the anti-Islamist is going on. The economy and infrastructure of Libya suffer new destructive blows again and again. Internal contradictions are aggravated by the direct or indirect influence of external players (Egypt, UAE, Qatar, Algeria, Sudan, Turkey, USA, EU countries, particularly Britain, France, Italy) on the political situation in Libya.
Currently Cyrenaica federalists stand on the side of the retired Libyan Army General Khalifa Haftar, a supporter of the former Prime Minister A. Zeidan. Troops under the command of Haftar with the support of Zintan militia and separate units of the Libyan army went forth in the framework of a military operation "Dignity" against the Islamists from the group Dawn Libya supporting the former temporary legislative body, the General National Congress (GNC). The Islamists seized control of the Western part of Libya and joined the struggle for the possession of oil resources in the East. By the end of 2014, the epicenter of fighting between pro-Islamist and anti-Islamist forces was located in the area of Benghazi. In early 2015, the preponderance in this opposition was in favor of the troops led by the Haftar, with the support of Egypt and the UAE.
The governmental crisis, that arose after March 11, 2014 when the CNC under the pressure of Islamists sacked Prime Minister A. Zeidan, continues. Since mid-2014 there are two governments and two parliaments in Libya. The government in Tripoli and the government in Tobruk do not recognize each other, challenging the legitimacy of the status of the "opponent". The House of Representatives chosen in the general elections of June 25 with headquarters in Tobruk which started its work on August 4, 2014, and the General National Congress in Tripoli are functioning. Formally, the central power of Libya moved from Tripolitania to Cyrenaica: the internationally recognized anti-
Islamist government headed by A. al-Thani, based, for security reasons, not in the de facto capital of Benghazi, but in Tobruk, controls mainly the Eastern part of the country with the help of the units of the Libyan National Army and enjoys the support of Cyrenaica federalists.
The country has developed a formal, di-, and actually -polyarchy. The structures of the Islamic State (IS) take advantage of the resulting power vacuum and institutional crisis to organize their terrorist attacks. The real power in Libya is not in the hands not of politicians, but of the constantly changing their "political orientation" field commanders and businessmen who support them. And the federalists got seats in the House of Representatives and joined the anti-Islamist bloc, considering such alliance promising and useful for achieving their political goals. The role of the "third force" in Libya, is now, instead of federalists, played by jihadists, who swore allegiance to the radical group Ansar al-Sharia, and then to Islamic State. Taking advantage of the absence of a functioning central power and weakness of the regular army, the Islamic extremists seized control of some key locations in Libya, e.g. in Derna, Sirte, as well as in some districts of Benghazi, Tripoli, Sabratha.
Actualization of the federalist discourse is just one of the products of the process of "de-gaddafiication" and "somaliazation" of Libya after the "Arab spring". And it proves impossible to achieve national unity exploiting only the idea of negation of Gaddafi 's heritage, the opponents accuse each other of betraying the ideals of the revolution. The intra-Libyan negotiations on the settlement of the conflict and establishing an inclusive dialogue running from January 2015 under the auspices of the UN are called by experts the last chance for the country which found itself in the state of instability and "half-decay".
If the return of Libya to federalism occurs, and it is possible, it will be a "new" federalism in content. According to the researcher, it is premature to talk about the federal future of the country: the work of the Constituent Assembly over the draft of the new text of the Basic Law is still under way, the political conflict is not resolved. The search for the all-national consensus
on the form of the state structure and determining of democratic ways out of the political impasse is going on.
Author of the abstract - V. Schensnovich
2017.03.006. ANNA ZURKAN. SYRIA'S CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES: PROGRESS AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN-AMERICAN COOPERATION / / "Problemy evropeiskoi bezopasnosti", № 2, Moscow, 2017, P. 124-144.
Keywords: Syria, Russia, USA, the U.S.-Russian relations, cessation of hostilities.
Anna Zurkan,
PhD (Politics), research fellow,
Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS
In the article, the author analyzes the cessation of hostilities in Syria in February 2016 as a result of cooperation between Russia and the United States as co-chairs of the International Support Group for Syria (hereinafter ISSG). The author notes that at that time there was no confidence in the U.S. ability to influence the opposition, as it lost control over it, as well as in the fact that the Russian Federation would stop striking at the ranks of the opposition under the pretext of combating ISIS and "Jabhat an Nusra" as In the possibility of halting a five-year civil war and moving to a political settlement process. ISSG called on the conflicting parties to a cease-fire in October, 2015. A separate task force was established, chaired by Russia and the United States, to carry out the assigned task, which was to conduct intra-Syrian consultations involving the government and the opposition.
The author emphasizes that the process of intra-Syrian consultations, as well as the coordination of the positions of the two ISSG chairmen, was far from smooth - the existing peace initiative was not developed because of the critical impossibility
