CC BY
17
2016.10.007. G. SMIRNOVA. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION IN LIBYA AFTER THE OVERTHROW OF M. GADDAFI // "Economic, socio-political, ethno-confessional problems of the Afro-Asian countries: Memory of V. Rastyannikov / Under the editorship of O. Bibikova and N. Tsvetkova / IOS RAS - Center for Strategic Trend Studies. Moscow, 2015, P. 143-155.
Keywords: Libya, M. Gaddafi, radical Islamists, civil war, oil, economics and politics.
G. Smirnova,
Ph. D. (Econ.), Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS
G. Smirnova says that three years after the fall of the Gaddafi regime another round of civil war began in Libya as the result of the actions of opposition forces and NATO bombing another round of civil war began. This time it is the confrontation between armed groups of radical Islamists and units of the Libyan army, under the control of Libyan Army General Khalifa Haftar. Fighting against radical Islamist groups associated with "al-Qaeda" and "Ansar-al-Sharia" ("Supporters of Sharia"), and the organization "Moslem Brotherhood" operating in Libyan territory, began in May 2014. And from mid-July, the Islamists launched a military campaign, dubbed "Libyan Dawn" (the military operation of NATO coalition forces against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, was called "Dawn Odyssey ". - G. S.).
After the overthrow of Gaddafi' the political and economic situation in the country took a turn for the worse. The Transitional National Council (TNC) created with the support of Western backers and headed by Mahmoud Jibril, had no clear program of action. In July 2012 the country held the first parliamentary elections after the overthrow of Gaddafi with 142 newly formed political organizations participating (during the 42 years of Gaddhafi's reign political groups had been banned, but in 2012 the TNC lifted the ban on the establishment of parties on religious,
tribal and ethnic lines). Only the most influential and numerous of them were able to qualify for the mandates in the highest legislative body of the country. These are "Alliance of National Forces" (ANS), which brought together more than 40 parties and 200 social organizations and liberal groups and was the coalition of liberal forces. These forces were headed by the leaders who were in exile outside of Libya. They stood for moderate Islam, liberalization of economy, openness to the West. The leader of ANS, Mahmoud Jibril, headed the government during the transition period. Another liberal political party was "National Centrist Movement", headed by Ali Al-Tarhouni, Oil Minister in the transitional government of the NTC.
The political organization "Party of Justice and Development" (AKP) was in fact a political wing of the Islamic movement "Moslem Brotherhood" in Libya, which had for a long time been in the underground or abroad. The party "al-Watan" ("Homeland") was set up and is supervised by the radical Islamist group "al-Gama'a al-Islamiya" in Libya. It is headed by a known Islamist activist, the former military commander of Tripoli, Abdelhakim Belhadj, one of the leaders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting group (LIFG). The movement of Salafi - supporters of one of the most conservative sects of Islam was represented by "al-Asal" ("Basis"), headed by Sheikh Abdelbasit Havila. The Libyans were to elect 200 Parliament members, who were to form the new government and the Expert Council. The latter was to prepare the draft of the new Constitution, which was supposed to be submitted to referendum, and then hold presidential elections.
On August 8, 2012 the TNC which governed after the overthrow of Gaddafi handed the power over to the new Libyan Parliament - the General National Congress (GNC), formed after the elections held on July 7. The new government was headed by Ali Zeidan. According to the Egyptian newspaper "al-Ahram al-Arabi", a number of Islamic radical activists-Islamists managed to take positions in the power structures of Libya. Among them
were 14 prominent figures of the Islamist groups who had fought against the government 20 years ago. Many of them had been in the ranks of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, in prisons, fought against Gaddafi. After the transfer of power from the Transitional National Council to the General National Congress - the GNC (interim Parliament) - the situation in the country did not improve. It can be explained by the fact that the GNC was composed of representatives of the most diverse segments of Libyan society. A large number of "independent" MPs represented different regions and tribes. The contradictions between regions, between the Islamists and supporters of the secular, liberal way of development, between opponents and supporters of the ousted regime were intensifying as well as the separatist sentiments. In addition there were tribal disputes, where tribes had their own armed forces, which took control over economic facilities, especially oil fields, claiming a share of oil revenues. All these disagreements were primarily based on the struggle for oil resources and redistribution of financial flows from their sale. Five governments, in turn replacing each other, were unable to establish control over the whole territory of Libya. The major part of the country was controlled by various groups of Islamist militants, the armed groups of tribes and regional elites. The day after the celebration of the third anniversary of the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime (17 February 2014), the rebels issued an ultimatum to the Parliament of Libya with the requirement to resign. Representatives of Islamist political parties tried to push through the GNC a vote of no confidence in the current government headed by Ali Zeidan. The aim of the Prime Minister Zeidan was restoring order in the country, disarmament of illegal armed units, fight against terrorism, reforms in the economy, in particular development of the industries not related to oil, attraction of foreign investments. The attempt of the Islamists was not a success, but it was an evidence of political instability and the looming political crisis in the country associated with the deteriorating economic situation, inability of the central
authorities to ensure safety of the population, with separatist sentiments in certain regions. In March 2014, the GNC insisted on the resignation of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. On February 20, 2014, the elections for the Constitutional Assembly were held. The Constitutional Assembly was to work out the new Constitution. On April 23, 2014 a Libyan politician and economist Ali Tarhouni, who had been a staunch opponent of Gaddafi was elected the Chairman of the Constitutional Assembly. After years of staying abroad he returned to Libya in 2011 and was appointed Minister of Oil and Finance at the TNC.
In June 2014, Libya held parliamentary elections and according to their results there was formed the House of Representatives (Parliament) which dismissed the GNC, where the Islamists held strong positions. As far back as in December 2013, the GNC decided to make Sharia the basis for the legislation of the country. It was announced that the legal rules prescribed by the Qur'an, and the hadiths will form the basis of the activities of all state institutions and agencies. According to the Minister of Economy Mustafa Abu Fanas, Libya was to transform its economic and banking system in accordance with the Islamic law prohibiting the charging of loan interest. The Deputy of the GNC Salah Mahmoud told the conference that Libya would join the international process of introducing Islamic principles in the banking system, which is gaining momentum due to the banking crisis in the US and Europe. The Islamists and representatives of political parties cooperating with them, the losers in the parliamentary elections, refused to reconcile and continued functioning of the GNC, appointing Omar al-Hassi as the Prime Minister. The House of Representatives, ousted by the Islamists from Tripoli and forced to meet in Tobruk, approved, Abdullah-al-Thani on this post. Actually, the country found itself under dual power. On the one hand, the Pro-Islamic GNC in Tripoli and on the other hand the Parliament in Tobruk elected at the general parliamentary elections. Thus, the country had two parliaments - the Tripolitanian and the Tobruk - and two
governments - that of Omar al-Hassi and that of Abdullah al-Thani. The House of Representatives has at its disposal the National Army of the General H. Haftar, created in the spring of 2014, backed by Egypt, GCC countries, the air force, the Navy and supported by certain tribes in Eastern province. The GNC, in turn, relies on the forces of the Libyan army, and the well-armed groups "Brigade of the Nartyrs of February 17" and the Islamists, as well as on assistance of the Berber tribes. The Tobruk government is supported by the world community and the Tripoli government -by Qatar and Turkey. Fighting in the country does not stop: troops of the General Haftar are fighting with various Islamist groups, in particular with the movement "Ansar al-Sharia" associated with "al-Qaeda", recognized guilty of attacking the American Embassy in Benghazi in September 2012 and of murder of the American Ambassador and officially declared by Washington a terrorist organization.
The international community made certain efforts to resolve the conflict. With the mediation of the UN special representative for Libya Bernardino Leon the parties began peace talks. The first phase took place in late September 2014. In the result of it two resolutions have been adopted: "to start a political process to resolve the problem of state institutions and to appeal to the warring sides calling for ceasefire". The next stage of the negotiations is to be held before long, however, according to some experts, a break in at the second and following stages of the negotiations is hardly probable, and the UN appeal to the warring parties in Libya to start a political dialogue for restoring stability in the country in the foreseeable future will not be heard. Libya faces many problems, the main of which is the destruction of statehood and the absence of civilized tools to normalize the situation. There are more than 1.5 thousand of armed groups operating in the country: radical Islamists, Gaddafi supporters, local tribes adhering to political views of all kinds. It is doubtful that the parties fighting for at least three years, would agree to a truce, if each of the groups will not receive the corresponding dividends.
In the meantime, according to G. Smirnova, the West has removed itself from the problems encountered in Libya after the overthrow of Gaddafi. The government of the U.S., the UK, Germany, France and Italy agree that the military solution to the Libyan crisis does not exist, and the key to the problem of saving the Arab State is a peaceful internal dialogue under the auspices of the House of Representatives (National Parliament) of Libya, elected on June 25, 2014.
The bloodshed in Libya is going on. On December 20 2014 the radical Islamist group "Libyan Dawn", which established control over Tripoli and Western parts of the country attacked the largest Libyan ports. The terminals were stopped. In late December, the militants of that group fired several missiles at the tank farm in the port of As Sidr and burned a few tanks. The militants of "Libyan Dawn" repeatedly attempted to seize the coastal stripe of Libya, the "Oil Crescent". This stripe begins 500 km East of Tripoli, and the area houses major oil terminals. Thus, Islamist groups are trying to establish control not only over oil production but over oil exports as well. In his address to the UN Security Council the special UN representative for Libya Bernardino Leon said that the Libyan leaders should act quickly and decisively, otherwise the risk of losing national unity and territorial integrity of the country would be real and inevitable.
Unfortunately, these fears have come true. In these days members of the Islamist organizations "Libyan Dawn" coordinate their actions with the radical group "Islamic State". Infiltration of the radical Islamist group "Islamic state" into Libya began in the spring of 2014, when Libyan fighters who had fought on the side of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, began to return home in order to found a branch of the organization there. Libyans who went to Syria in 2011, joined the existing local jihadist organizations, or set up their own ones. In 2012, one of the groups fighting for the Syrian rebels, proclaimed foundation of the "Brigade of Battar." Later, the soldiers of this brigade have confirmed their fidelity to the IS and fought for it, as well as for its rival "al-Qaeda". In the spring of
2014, many of the soldiers of the "Brigade of Battar" returned to Libya, and founded in Derna (the stronghold of the extremists) the organization "Islamic Youth Shura Council" (IYSC). Among those who joined IYSC there were members of a branch of the organization "Ansar al-Sharia" in Derna. They declared enemies all those who refused to recognize their power, killing journalists, judges, military officers and members of the "Brigade of Abu Salim" associated with "al-Qaeda". Derna was captured by the extremists immediately after the overthrow and killing of Gaddafi, in particular by the militants of the movement "Ansar al-Sharia" (declared by the UN a terrorist organization).
In September 2014, a delegation of the IS arrived in Libya to meet with IYSC. After the meeting this organization swore allegiance to the leader of the IS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (real name Ibrahim Abdallah). Armed squads of the IS identifying themselves as "soldiers of the Caliphate in the province of Libya" seized the radio and TV centre of the city of Sirte and use them for broadcasting their propaganda programs. The IS militants control military training camps in the vicinity of Derna. From October 2014 to April 2015, IS have formed, in addition to the Derna, a network of affiliated cells in other towns: Beida, Benghazi, Sirte and Tripoli. In November 2014, the supporters of al-Baghdadi declared the Barka province in the East of Libya, "a province of the Caliphate". Tripoli and Fezzan were also declared the provinces of the Caliphate. The IS division in Cyrenaica counts 800 fighters who have created a number of training camps12. The group has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks on police stations in Tripoli, the oil refinery in al-Ghani, kidnappings and executions of foreigners. This organization also accounts for the massacre of Egyptian Copts in February 2015 and Ethiopian Christians in April 2015, attacks on diplomatic missions of foreign states. The presence of the Islamic State inside Libya was headed by one of the leaders "of the Libyan fighting Islamic group" Abdelhakim Belhaj. He started his career in the ranks of "al-Qaeda", successfully fighting against the American occupation of Iraq. In 2012, when
the US and NATO began military actions in Libya, he became a "fighter for freedom" and fought against the "tyrannical despot" Gaddafi, was arrested and imprisoned with other members of LIFG (after the victory of the rebels with the help of NATO forces it was renamed to "Libyan Islamic Movement"). Washington did its best to release the "fighter for freedom" and place him at the head of the Pro-Western Islamist factions fighting against the Libyan army.
ISIS is expanding into Libya, using the chaos, the lack of strong centralized authority, contradictions between the two parliaments and governments, between regional elites, the feud between the tribes. ISIS is broadcasting propaganda programs proclaiming the rapid expansion of their Caliphate in Libya. However, according to some foreign researchers -Frederic Wehrey, Ala' Alrababa'h, strengthening of the positions of the IG is actually prevented by the contradictions in the Islamist movement, in particular between IYSC and pre-existing Jihad groups. The tension intensified still more when the Islamist organization "Brigade of the Martyrs of Abu Salim" (Derna) was criticized by more radical Islamists for support of the GNC elections held in July 2012, which were considered anti-Islamic by the members of "Ansar al-Sharia". In the course of fierce clashes IYSC managed to dislodge from Derna the "Brigade of the martyrs of Abu Salim and Ansar al-Sharia", strengthening of the positions of the IG ideologically strengthening of the positions of the IG to "al-Qaeda". This enabled the supporters of the IS to strengthen its foothold in Derna. The government of Libya in Tobruk is extremely concerned about the situation in Libya, which is turning into a base of terrorism. On February 18, 2015 at the meeting of the UN Security Council the head of Libya's Foreign Ministry Mohammed al-Dairy appealed to the international community to help the country in combating the international terrorism and, first of all, equip the army, which requires lifting the embargo on arms. At the meeting with the Minister of Foreign of the Russian Federation S. Lavrov in April 2015 the Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani asked
Moscow to assist in the reconstruction of the country and its state institutions.
The complicated internal political situation in Libya after Gaddafi's overthrow was accompanied by a sharp deterioration of the economic and financial situation. As a result of the political crisis resulting from the armed insurgency of the opposition forces and the civil war, oil production in the country fell drastically, from 1.66 million barrels per day to 480 thousand barrels per day (in 2011). Due to the takeover of some oil facilities by armed units and local tribes and, a series of strikes in the oil fields, blocking of the maritime terminals by militias, the situation in the country deteriorated sharply. Oil production fell to 200 thousand b/ d., and according to some data, even to 100 thousand b/d. Militants seized the largest oil deposit, Ash-Sharara, which produced 200 thousand b/d. The major oil ports in Eastern Libya were not functioning due to the fact that they were occupied by armed troops who tried to sell oil independently. As a result, according to the Minister of Economy of Libya, the losses of Libyan economy in 2013 exceeded $ 10 billion. GDP fell by 12.3%.
According to the data as of January 2014, Libya's GDP fell by 12.1% as compared with the previous year. The reduction in oil production affected primarily the status of the financial sector. The state budget deficit of Libya in 2014 reached the record level of 43.5% of GDP against a deficit of 3.6 percent in 2013. Due to the deteriorating financial situation in the country depending mainly on the export of hydrocarbons, the government intends in 2016 to abolish fuel subsidies (10.6 billion LD in 2013). The budget for 2014 due to the duel power in the country was not adopted. In the absence of funds to finance current expenditures and investments in the economy, the authorities were forced to spend forex reserves of the Central Bank, which at the end of 2012 were estimated at $ 120 billion. According to the evaluation of the World Bank, if the situation in the country does not stabilize, the forex reserves of the Central Bank of Libya will be spent over the next four years, causing collapse of the economy.
Under the circumstances of continuing fragmentation of the Libyan society, it actually being a confederation of separate areas and cities, often warring, tribes and clans struggling for the increase of their share in oil production revenues, and some regions are not controlled by any of the central authorities, it is premature to make optimistic forecasts. Moreover, Libya is in the state of civil war again and the outcome is not yet known. Outlining the forecasts for further development of Libya, we should not forget that this North African country has huge reserves of high quality oil and natural gas (not properly explored yet). Libya ranks first in Africa in oil reserves and fourth in gas reserves. The main buyers of Libyan oil were European countries -Italy, France, Germany, UK, Spain. At the end of the 2000s, it was reported about the alleged availability of new oil basins in Libya. This heated the interest of Western countries for Libyan oil in accordance with their desire to limit oil supplies from Russia and Iran. Maybe, the information about large reserves of hydrocarbons was one of the reasons for the return to Libya of the US oil companies hoping to reap significant profits. The interest of outside forces in Libya oil and gas resources will probably lead to competition between them and support one or another of the warring factions. Given the difficult political situation, the destruction of the system of statehood in the country, the absence of a strong central government, clan and tribal nature of Libyan society, the large number of armed groups, restoration of order in the country and economic recovery can prove be a long and difficult process. Besides, the situation was sharply complicated by infiltration into the territory of Libya of militants of the terrorist group of the ISIS, which fact may lead to further destabilization throughout the region. At the same time without achieving political stability Libya will not be able to attract foreign investment and to achieve reactivation of the oil industry - the basic condition development of its economy and the welfare of the popul.
The author of the abstract - V. Schensnovich.
