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2017.04.009. ELENA VASETSOVA. LIBYA: FIVE YEARS WITHOUT GADDAFI //"Vestnik Rossiiskoi Natsii," Moscow, 2017, No 2, P. 234-244.
Keywords: Libya, Russia, U.S.A., Islamism, terrorism.
Elena Vasetsova,
PhD (Politics), Assistant Professor, The Chair of Politics of Oriental Countries The Institute of Asian and African Countries, Moscow State University
The author examines the main trends and development prospects of the situation in Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, analyzed the positions of the opposing sides, as well as the role of the external factor in the current situation.
After the death of M. Gaddafi (2011) the country plunged into a structural crisis which turned into an armed conflict continuing to this day, and which seems to be unsolvable. Actually, the state disintegrates in the course of the confrontation between various armed groupings. Ethnic and tribal conflicts exacerbate the situation still more. All conditions now exist in Libya for the flow of radical Islamists to flood the country: easy access to arms, weakness of the regular army, separatist sentiments, impotence of state power, and the absence of security guarantees for people. Libya presents a great interest for Islamist terrorist groupings due to its advantageous strategic geographical position close to the Middle East and the Mediterranean. It is also a very convenient springboard to deploy military training camps. The weakness of state power leads to an increase of illegal migration through Libya. Armed groupings have organized the smuggling of people, which is a source of financing radical organizations, along with arms trade and drug trafficking.
The European Union countries have not been touched directly by the activity of the Libyan radicals, whose aim was to
set up strong points and military bases, but not to deal blows at western states. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that the Libyan Islamic groupings will not plan and commit terrorist acts on the territory of European states at present and in the future. Especially dangerous is the possible use by the terrorists of transportable anti-aircraft missile complexes, or portable ground-to-air portable missiles, which can be handled by one man. In 2011 about 50 such missiles disappeared without trace from the Gaddafi arsenals.
After the brutal murder of Gaddafi several groupings have been fighting for power in Libya. In the summer of 2014, after a sharp exacerbation of the situation the country began to be dominated by diarch. Its parliament was recognized at the international level and supported by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. It was also backed by the regular army commanded by Fieldmarshal Khalifa Haftar.
Libyan parliament was opposed by the New National Congress, a legislative body set up by politicians from Islamist parties, which replaced the Unified National Congress. After their election defeat in 2014 the Islamist parties heading militants units captured Tripoli.
In 2014-2015 a sharp confrontation of the two acting bodies of power continued, each one of them claiming legitimacy. The inter-Libyan dialogue, which was taking place in Morocco was joined by the Islamist New Unified National Congress. On October 9, 2015, the formation of a government of national accord of Libya was announced and Fayez al-Sarraj became its prime minister. A new body of power came into being - the Presidential Council of Libya set up in March 2016. It comes out as the head of state and formed a government of national unity. Prime Minister F. Sarraj became the head of the Presidential Council.
Despite positive dynamic in organizing interaction between hostile political forces, the confrontation between the centers of power continues. The government of national accord controls an insignificant part of the country's territory. The Libyan National
army is not subordinated to the government in Tripoli, and its commander Kh. Haftar is an ally of the parliament sitting in the east of the country.
Power vacuum has been used by the radical Islamist grouping "Islamic State in Tripoli" which began active military operation in Libya in 2014.
In May 2015 the "Islamic State" seized the town of Sirt and its environs. This territory has special importance due to a nearby sea and air ports and oil reserves, which the terrorists plan to sell and earn additional incomes.
Well realizing the need to stabilize the situation in the country Kh. Haftar began in May 2016 the military operation "Libya's Dignity" whose aim was to destroy the radical Islamists. However, it has not been achieved, and in May 2016 the head of the government F. Sarraj announced the beginning of the military operation to liberate Sirt from the militants. About a month later military units closed around Sirt and succeeded to liberate the sea and air ports, an airbase to the south of the city and a military plant producing explosives. However, the further offensive stopped due to the growing resistance of the militants. Unable to change the situation, the government of national accord was forced to turn to the United States and its allies for assistance.
The United States agreed to grant direct military aid for the liberation of Sirt. Libya became another country after Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria where the United States and its allies began to use force against the terrorists. In September 2016 the Libyan troops overpowered the enemy and liberated Sirt completely from the ISIL militants.
However, the liberation of Sirt will not be the beginning of the country's reunification. The level of its decentralization is too great, the state is being torn apart by various conflicts, there is no charismatic leader capable to unite more than 100 various tribes and their alliances. The country is living through one of the gravest periods of its history, and the road to its rebirth will be long and arduous. In the near future it may split into several
parts, or face years of bloody fratricidal war, and clashes and coups accompanied with bitter power struggle. Perhaps, a new leader will emerge capable to unite tribes and groupings, and then a new Libyan project may be created, the researcher concludes.
Author of the abstract - Elena Dmitrieva
