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2017.01.017. YU. ZININ. KEY ACTORS OF INTERNAL POLITICAL CONFLICT IN LIBYA// "Ezhegodnik IMI. Mezhdunarodnaya politika v menyayuschemsya mire" MGIMO-University, Moscow, 2016 Vol. 1 (15), P. 87-97.
Keywords: Libya, Tripoli, Tobruk, the UN, Hefter, Gaddafi, Al-Tini, Zintan, Russia, disintegration.
Yu. Zinin,
PhD (History), Senior Researcher, The Center for Partnership of Civilizations, Institute for International Studies in the MGIMO University
The author examines the effects of the "Arab Spring" that shook the Middle East region in 2011, assuming authoritarian leaders' displacement in some countries is one of such consequences, including the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi. There has been a collapse of the previous government of Libya institutions, and there was a power vacuum, and destructive processes in the country began to condemn the new government on a systemic crisis and conflicts, especially aggravated in the summer of 2014. The author examines the turbulent events that led to the establishment of dual power in Libya in 2014. There were two control poles confronting one another: one - in Tripoli, the other - in Tobruk, in eastern Libya, each with its own parliament, government and the armed forces.
The author analyzes the ongoing conflict, which has claimed thousands of lives. The picture of the balance of forces is diverse and mobile, and it introduces an element of great unpredictability in the further course of confrontation between opponents. The speedy end to the conflict and the normalization of the overall situation is unlikely. The author also considers the UN attempts to mediate for reconciliation of the warring parties and the restoration of a unified state.
The society has been divided into winners and losers after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. Those who came to power were not uniform in their composition: there were irreconcilable enemies of the previous regime who fought against it as part of the jihadist groups still in the 1990s, there was a radical foreign opposition, which did not accept the remaining "henchmen of the former government," calling for their elimination.
There was an unstable and contradictory balance of interests and forces in different groups, which are the product of the previous era of the Board in many ways and have its clan and tribal mark.
The policy of demilitarization and integration of militias into a single professional army, proclaimed by the new leadership of the country has failed. Most units, organized by the regional-clannishness principle, retain their autonomy. Their militants have refused to join the armed forces under a unified command.
As for the clashes between the military organizations of the two Libyan governments, they are more focal, chaotic at the moment, and take place in the east, west and south of Libya. Today it is difficult to give an objective assessment of the correlation of forces of the conflicting parties and the prospects for their further confrontation.
The author believes that the accuracy of the information base on the coverage of events by the Libyan media is doubtful. Rigid state monopoly in the field of mass media has been left in the past after the fall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime. The country now has at least 35 channels of satellite TV in the absence of the official state television. About 300 newspapers are issued. A number of cities and tribes have their own page on "Facebook". The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) concludes that the media in Libya have been polarized and become a key instrument of propaganda influence of the opposing sides in recent years.
In general, a low intensity is typical for the dynamics of the current conflict. The actual number of combatants on both sides is unknown. The author notes that according to the assessment of Libyan and foreign experts, both military education segments have weak internal connections and their units are often linked by not long-term interests, but opportunistic ones.
The UN assists in establishing contacts and negotiations between the warring factions of Libya with a view to reconciliation. These groups involved in the struggle, seek to obtain a share of revenue through a complex network of influential intermediaries. They are often linked with their tribes, clans or fraternities, religious groups, and seek to convert their military power, and the "revolutionary legitimacy" in the real economic and political capital.
Today, the ruling circles and the elite in Libya are showing signs of ideological disorder and loss of confidence in the canons of democracy, where the West pushed hard their country. They can not find a support in the local community living with their archaic ideas, religion and commandments of ancestors. Therefore, the automatic copying of the Western values has not been and will be unlikely a panacea for all the troubles in Libya in the immediate future.
The author claims that the majority of Libya's population is still not ready to perceive these values, just as it was far away from the conscious understanding of the reform program under the socialist slogans that Muammar Gaddafi tried to implement over the years. Revolutionary rhetoric of Muammar Gaddafi and its implementation have provoked the rise of Islamist movements and organizations that operated under the guise of "defending" the faith from the influence of "foreign ideas" that are alien to the traditions of the people.
Today, a number of heads of modern Libya make claims to the West regarding its Libyan policy after February 17, 2011 that the Western countries and NATO have stopped halfway, "leaving
of the Libyans to their fate," and it is not care about freedom and progress of the Libyans, but their own goals are driven by them.
The Libyan phenomenon is a sad example of how the rich and stable country has been bled dry by internal conflicts, and how its unity and territorial integrity have been called into question, and how the country has been turned into a hotbed of potential threats to neighboring countries in North Africa and the Middle East. According to the UN report, Libya is included among the main suppliers of illegal weapons to the illegal armed groups in the region. The authorities are not able to close the border with a total length of up to 6 000 km.
The sad experience of Libya - is a warning to Syria that has undergone the pressure on the Libyan scenario after February 2011. Libyan weapons have been supplied in war-torn Syria, and followed it in transit through Turkey and Lebanon.
The author notes that ties between our two countries did not stop after coming to power, the new authorities in Libya. One of the latest evidence of this is the visit of the Prime Minister of the recognized Libyan government, Abdullah Al-Tini, in the Russian Federation in April 2015. He gave a good assessment to the relations between the two countries, stressing that his country has often appealed to Moscow for help and support in difficult times, when other countries refused it. He recalled that 90% of the weapons in the Libyan army are of the Soviet and Russian production, and that communication has always been developed in the military-technical terms. Al-Tini has confirmed the desire of Tobruk's authorities to enhance cooperation with Russia in the sphere, as well as in the field of economy and trade, to meet the requirements of the moment and the current situation. Russia has been and remains to be a supporter of the restoration and development of mutually beneficial cooperation and ties between our countries and peoples.
The author of the abstract - N. Ginesina
