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ISSN 2226-2830 В1СНИК МАРГУПОЛЬСЬКОГО ДЕРЖАВНОГО УНЮЕРСИТЕТУ
СЕР1Я: 1СТОР1Я. ПОЛ1ТОЛОПЯ, 2015, ВИП. 13-14_
parties, which are not identified with the real problems and interests ofpublic, is determined in the article as prerequisite for success of populists in Italy.
As manifestation of modern Western European populism in the article there are determined the political activities of the party «Forza Italia» of S. Berlusconi and «Movement of Five Stars» of G. Grillo. There are given reasons that the exceptional thing for popularity of «Forza Italia» is the role of mass-media, owned by the «TV-populist» S. Berlusconi. Attention is attracted to the fact that S. Berlusconi relied on the power of television, while «Internetpopulist» G. Grillo focused on the Internet as the main form of contact with the voters. Ways of communication, elected by the politicians, allowed reaching different electorate audiences, but success (at least at the elections), finally, depended on the skilled use of populist rhetoric, which matched expectations of the public.
Key words: populism, TV-populism, Internet-populism, S. Berlusconi, G. Grillo, «Forza Italia», «Movement of Five Stars» (M5S).
РЕЦЕНЗЕНТИ: rpidiHa 1.М. дл.н, проф.; Трофименко М.В., к.полгг.н, проф.
УДК 32.02:01.8(47)
Ch. Yuskiv
"FROZEN CONFLICTS" IN EUROPE: HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF ORIGIN AND MANAGEMENT
The theme of research is extremely relevant as political and crafts, and scientific and theoretical aspects. The so-called "frozen conflicts" are among the toughest challenges to Black Sea regional security, as well as to the national interests of several post-Soviet states. They include the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the conflicts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova.A conflict in the east of Ukraine, obviously, will not be solved in the short term, and after a series of escalation, it will enter the stage offrozen. "Frozen" and controlled by Moscow conflict, that will flare up, then die away, will allow Russian Federation effectively adjust the foreign policy vector of Kyiv.
The conflicts vary in scope, history and management options, but are structurally similar. Contributing factors, such as weakness of states, economic depression and external support are in place in each of the conflicts. Moreover, they create similar threats for the national security of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova. Artificially "frozen" or de-escalated, none of the conflicts have been fully resolved. Along with traditional geopolitical challenges, they are also sources of transnational threats.
Modern internal conflicts result from differences in identity within societies. This pluralism can be of any nature, but mostly it is either ethnic or ideological. Most current theories of ethnic conflict assume that managing ethnic/ideological differences is better than eliminating them. With 285 politically active minority groups inhabiting just about 200 states, ethnic problems are inevitable. Combined with ideological, religious and internal political differences, they provide a broad basis for various types of internal political conflicts. Given the effects of globalization and growing interdependence on a global scale, it is not possible to solve the problems of identity by eliminating ethnic, religious and ideological diversities either through genocide or ethnic cleansing or by artificially constructing an isolated homogeneous society. This leaves policymakers with the only option of managing, not eliminating, the differences.
The theme of research is extremely relevant both in political- applied and scientific and theoretical aspects. The collapse of the USSR in 1991 led not only to the formation of fifteen new independent states, but also to the growth of social and ethnic tension, domination of extremist groups, the emergence of deep economic crisis. As a result of such destructive processes ethno-political conflicts have recovered. The subject of ethno-political conflicts in the former Soviet Union were mainly the territories that were transferred to the national public entities without regard to the ethnic factor because of a willful decision of the communist center in Moscow. The Transnistrian region of Moldova, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh on the territory of the South Caucasus are still remaining the unresolved conflicts that constitute a threat to international and regional security. Keeping these conflicts in a "frozen" state is beneficial for certain geopolitical forces of the first order, including the successor to the USSR - the Russian Federation.
Transnistria conflict in Moldova, the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Abkhazian and Ossetian conflicts in Georgia have become not only challenges for these countries, but also turned into an international problem whereas into the problem either directly or indirectly were involved neighboring states, including Ukraine.
The problem of the origin, escalation and attempts to resolve "frozen" conflicts is researched in a significant amount of publications in Ukrainian and foreign political literature. On the international academic stage this issues are explored by such scientists, as: Z. Brzezinski, E. Jones, G. Perepelychya, F. Morar, G. Pocheptsov, A. Zdravomyslov; among Urkainnian researchers - O. Alyeksyeychenko, M. Doroshko, M. Plaksenko, G. Shipunov, I. Vdovychyn. Summarizing the condition of scientific research of the theme by Ukrainian scientists, we should note that they analyze the preconditions and evolution of the conflict, negotiation process and participation of the guarantor countries.
The research policy of Russia concerning "frozen conflicts" in the post-Soviet countries is essential for Ukraine, due to the threat of appearance of "frozen" conflict in the east of Ukraine, caused by the Russian aggression, Russian violation of fundamental principles of world order and international law through the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea. Also prolonged existence of pending or "frozen" conflicts in the Republic of Moldova, Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Georgia is a threat to the stability of the socio-economic, ethno-cultural and political development of Ukraine and the whole Black Sea-Caspian region [2, p. 1].
The term protracted conflicts is often used to describe the disputes in the extended Black sea area: transnistria, south ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. There are other territorial disputes that haven't been resolved, such as the Western Sahara issue in the decolonization context, the Palestinian issue or Cyprus. Nonetheless, these cases have their own historically, geographically, demographically and politically distinctive traits. The Black Sea-South Caucasus protracted conflicts, while having their own peculiarities, share a number of common denominators. the most important are that the four entities declared their independence after violent wars at the beginning of post-soviet era; all share a soviet past; all experience the current reality of the paramount regional influence of Moscow in overtly or indirectly supporting the secessionists; and all find themselves at a confluence point between different regional and international actors' interests [6].
The four "frozen conflicts" have common features, such as: first, all of it emerged in result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and secondly, all of it are located in the territory of the former Soviet Union and thirdly, the main principal of all these conflicts is the Russian Federation [8].
The formation of new independent states after the collapse of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union has created many problems both regional and global character. One of them is the
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separatism of national minorities, quite numerous to count on their own statehood that increasingly becomes a cause of armed conflict.
According to the Ukrainian researcher O. Alyeksyeychenko existing "frozen conflicts" in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and the Caucasus crisis in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the West traditionally have been perceived as part of Russian policy in the CIS countries, intended to maintain control over this space. However, the real picture is much more complicated. "Frozen conflicts" have at least three dimensions: internal, Russian and international, which closely interact.
The internal dimension "frozen conflicts" is closely intertwined with its beginnings. The external players would not be able to inflame the hostility between the parties that are involved in the conflict, if the parties had no reason for embroilment. With the collapse of the Soviet Union the growth of ethnic violence in those former Soviet republics where ethnic, religious and territorial problems existed before the arrival of Soviet power has begun.
Russian aspect of "frozen conflicts" - the result of a complex and contradictory interaction of internal development of Russia, its policy towards neighboring countries and its relations with the West.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia faced with the necessity to create a new strategy towards the zone of its geopolitical interests - CIS. Russia began to play the role of donor for the new independent states in exchange for their political loyalty. Such policy gave Russia a pretext to occupy tougher stance towards the countries of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine. Thus, Russia is putting pressure on those countries in dispute resolution concerning territorial, ethnic, economic and military character [4].
After the eruption of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine in the spring of 2014, many Western observers, analysts, and strategists suggested that Russian foreign policy circles had been overrun by Russian strategists advancing revanchist policies in support of an aggressive campaign to return the country to great power status. Though Russia's support for the rebels in Donbas remains unacknowledged by Moscow, the international community's acceptance of Russian interference in the conflict has led to a near pariah status for the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin [9].
The current situation in Ukraine is stalemate - no peace, no war, all sides are suffering from significant losses: Ukraine - from the prolonged conflict on its territory; Russia - from participation in this conflict, keeping unprofitable annexed Crimea and from international sanctions; Western countries - from the the rupture of economic ties with Russia [3].
A conflict in the east of Ukraine, obviously, will not be solved in the short term, and after a series of escalation, it will enter the stage of frozen[5]. "Frozen" and controlled by Moscow conflict, that will flare up, then die away, will allow Russian Federation effectively adjust the foreign policy vector of Kyiv. A country that takes part in the war and has territorial problems or disputes with its neighbours, has no right to join the EU or NATO.
Since in the nearest future Ukraine would not be able to return the occupied pseudo-republic through military means, sooner or later, in the east would be established peace. Such neighborhood might get the model of Georgia and Abkhazia or Transnistria and Moldova [5]. Conflicts in these areas still remain unresolved, and these conflicts pose a threat to international and regional security. Preservation of key figure status on the territory of the former USSR allows Russia to substantially restrict the European aspirations of such participating countries in the EU program "Eastern Partnership" as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine and to slow down the process of strengthening of NATO and US influence in the CIS [1].
Thus, it is obvious that Ukraine in the case of this scenario would considerably slow down on the way to Europe, get the source of political instability and economic burden represented by affected regions-dependents [3]. Smoldering conflict at the Donbas would be
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the key to default, the war will effectively paralyze the economy. Heavy financial burden is the cause of a prolonged crisis in Ukraine, that provoke social and political instability [5].
Meanwhile, the cessation of active hostilities in the Donbas and "reconciliation" in such a scenario would give European countries an excuse for lifting sanctions with Russia and its political leaders, restoring economic ties that will promote economic growth in Russia. In parallel, European leaders will have an opportunity to fully switch their attention to the solving of problems within the EU that will contribute to boost its political ratings, as opposed to the strengthening of "fatigue" from the extension of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict [3].
According to the Ukrainian scientist V. Alyeksyeychenko, an active participant in the settlement of all four "frozen conflicts" in the former Soviet Union was Russia as party-country in the conflict, as the intermediary country and country-peacemaker. Such versatile participation of Russia in determination of the conflict resolution ways emphasizes the leading geopolitical role of Moscow and demonstrates the Russia's possibility to manage conflicts in the correct for RF direction and allows to suggest that "freezing" conflicts is an important external political tool that contributes to an increase of opportunities to Russia maneuvering in the international arena [2, p. 13].
Each of the abovementioned "frozen conflicts" is delineated by various parameters. The solution that suits one may not suit another. However, we can say that: 1) the political will of the major participants is not strong enough in order to put these conflicts on top of the agenda; 2) progress in resolving of these conflicts cannot be expected without the cooperation of the Russian Federation [8].
Although the "frozen" conflict in the east envisages a sufficiently rapid cessation of active hostilities in the Donbas, in perspective Ukraine will remain an unattractive country with a prolonged crisis and significant number of representatives of various international organizations, trafficking in humanitarian aid, smuggling, colossal contraband etc. The period of the conflict in "frozen" form is unknown as well as its results. Historical experience shows that we can talk about decades and as a result Ukraine will return to where it started by launching a new range of antagonism. Overall, the implementation of this scenario, reflect the interests of Russia and EU, but not Ukraine, especially in the longer term [3].
Russia plays a key role in the negotiations on the settlement of "frozen" conflicts, often acting not as a mediator, that objectively evaluates the situation but as player with its own interests. Russia does not contradict the settlement of the conflict, Moscow is interested in the settlement, but this settlement should be based on the satisfaction of its interests [7].
So, after the collapse of the USSR the bipolar world system was destroyed and, respectively, the Russian Federation, that became the legal successor of the Soviet Union, cannot accept the role of "simple" state on the world map. Russia realizes that it cannot act as the second political pole in the global political system. That's why Russia decided to oppose US hegemony its own political doctrine that is aimed to establish several regional centers or multipolar system. For distribution of its influence in near abroad Russia use "frozen conflicts" zone, namely the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia [4].
For Ukraine, such development of events cannot be considered as positive, since reduction of its impact decision making process may adversely affect its image of regional leader. The loss of championship positions in peacekeeping operations, "freeze" of plan proposed by Ukraine will lead to the isolation of our country from the process of conflict resolving. This situation required to restore the lost positions Ukraine. The final orderliness of such conflicts is important for Ukraine because it can be considered as one of the favorable conditions for the rapid promotion of our country towards European integration. Moreover, the transformation into an important subject of world politics and the implementation of active regional policy is a part of new geopolitical strategy of Ukraine [7].
Russia is extremely interested in keeping the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria in a state of "frozen conflicts". Thus, Russia can spread its influence in these areas by supporting local separatist movements.
Unrecognized states of the former Soviet territory (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh) play a significant role in strengthening the influence of Russia in the region. Post-Soviet space plays a system-role in Russian foreign policy, its value enables the production of a set of inter-related strategic priorities [4].
The research of Russian policy concerning "frozen conflicts" and Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2014-2015 have shown that the practical implementation of the policy of official Moscow that is aimed at the reunification of the former Soviet Union poses a real threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and countries of the former Soviet Union and is challenge for the world community. The aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the result of which was the annexation of the Crimea and the occupation of Donbas, have demonstrated that in order to return to the status of "superpower" Russian leadership is ready to ignore the generally recognized norms of international law and use all available means and resources [2, p.18].
Thus, it could be affirmed that despite a series of proposed by guarantor countries, mediators and observers plans for "frozen conflicts" settlement on the territory of the European continent, none of them have been implemented. Despite over 20 years of international actors attempt to find acceptable for all parties of conflicts relevant option of reconciliation the real levers of influence has Russian Federation, that aims to become the only guarantor of peace and security in the region. Russia's strategists perceive the western unions and organizations expansion in the post-Soviet Europe and the Caucasus as a threat to the national security of the Russian Federation. Thus, the determination of foreign policy interests of our state requires the consideration of the whole system of global interests of different countries, as well as the balance of power - economic, political, military, ideological - in the region.
References
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Стаття надшшла до редакци 30.10.2015 р.
Х.В. Юсь^в
«ЗАМОРОЖЕН1 КОНФЛ1КТИ» НА СВРОПЕЙСЬКОМУ КОНТИНЕНТ1: 1СТОРИЧНИЙ ДОСВ1Д ВИНИКНЕННЯ ТА УПРАВЛ1ННЯ
Так зваш «заморожен конфлiктu» вiдносяться до чшла найбыьш важкш вuклuкiв безпет Чорноморського регюну, а також нацiональнuм ттересам декшькох пострадянсьтх держав. До ïx чжла вiдносяться Нагiрно-Карабахськuй конфлтт мiж Вiрменieю та Азербайджаном, конфлiктu Абхази i Пiвденно'ï Осетй в Грузи, а також конфлтт Пр^тстров 'я в Mолдовi. Конфлтт на сxодi Украшу очев^но, не вдасться розв 'язатu у короткостроковт nерсnектuвi, i тсля сери ескалацт, вт перейде в стадю замороженого. «Замороженш» i контрольованш Москвою конфлтт, ятй буде то сnалаxуватu, то заттатu, дозволuть РФ ефектжно корuгуватu зовнiшньоnолiтuчнuй вектор Кжва.
Ц конфлiктu вiдрiзняються за масштабамu, wтори та варiантам регулювання, але вонu nодiбнi структурно. У кожному з щх конфлiктiв пршутт спршють фактора таю як слабк1сть держав, економiчна депреЫя та niдтрuмка ззовт. Бшьше того, вонu створюють однакову загрозу нацiональноï безпет Азербайджану, Грузи та Молдова Штучно «заморожет» або nрuглушенi, вс ц конфлiктu ще дос залuшаються невuрiшенuмu. Поряд з традuцiйнuмu геоnолiтuчнuмu nроблемамu, вонu також e джерелом транснацюнальнт загроз.
ЗЗЗ
ISSN 2226-2830 В1СНИК МАРГУПОЛЬСЬКОГО ДЕРЖАВНОГО УНЮЕРСИТЕТУ СЕР1Я: 1СТОР1Я. ПОЛ1ТОЛОГ1Я, 2015, ВИП. 13-14_
Сучасн внутршн конфлтти в1дбуваються через розб1жност1 через 1ндш1дуальност1 всередит суспыльств. Такий плюрал1зм може мати р1зне походження, але найчастше в1н бувае еттчними або 1деолог1чним. Б1льш1сть сучасних теорт еттчного конфлтту припускають, що регулювати еттчт/1деолог1чн1 розб1жност1 - це краще, н1ж ix лiквiдувати. При наявностi 285 полтично активних груп меньшин, що населяють всього близько 200 крат, етшчш проблеми неминучi. Одночасно з iдеологiчними, релтйними та внутршшми полтичними розбiжностями, вони створюють широку базу для рiзноманiтниx внутршньополтичних конфлiктiв. Якщо взяти до уваги ефекти глобалiзацii i зростаючу взаемозалежтсть у глобальному масштабi, то неможливо виршити проблеми iндивiдуальностi шляхом лiквiдацii еттчних, релтйних та iдеологiчниx рiзноманiтностей через геноцид чи етшчш чистки, так само як i шляхом штучного створення iзольованого однорiдного сустльства. Для тих, хто визначае полтику, залишаеться тшьки один варiант - регулювати розбiжностi, а не лiквiдувати гх.
Ключовi слова: «заморожений конфлтт», пострадянський простiр, регюнальна безпека, геополтичн ттереси.
РЕЦЕНЗЕНТИ: Сухий О.М., дл.н, проф.; Гулай В.В., д.полггн, доц.
УДК 329(564.3)(045)
Ю.Ф. Яс1рова
ВИБОРИ ДО еВРОПАРЛАМЕНТУ В РЕСПУБЛ1Ц1 К1ПР ЯК ФАКТОР ВПЛИВУ НА ПАРТ1ЙНУ СИСТЕМУ КРА1НИ
У сmаmmi висвтлено особливостi виборiв до Свропейського парламенту в Республщ Ктр як фактору впливу на парттну систему держави. Розглянуmi вибори 2004, 2009 та 2014рр. Придшено увагу програмним засадам основних полтичних партш, особливостям передвиборчих кампашй. Проаналiзована розстановка сил в парттнт сисmемi тсля европейських виборiв.
Ключовi слова: Республта Ктр, парттна система, полтична парmiя, вибори, Свропейський парламент.
В умовах поглиблення процесу европейсько'1 штеграци поширюсться його вплив на pi3Hi сфери полггачного життя, полгтичш системи кра'ш-члешв €С. Змшам i трансформаци тддаються i партшш системи, особливо зважаючи на те, що партшна модель демократа е одшею з основних полгтичних цшностей сучасносп. В цьому контекст велику роль вщграе фактор функщонування Свропейського парламенту. Так можна видшити таю новi аспекти як, з одного боку, приеднання нащональних полгтичних партш до европейських партшних груп, а з шшого боку проведення европейських виборiв в кра'шах-членах, яю створюють можливосп для виведення на шший рiвень вщносин в рамках партшно'1 системи та змшення розстановки сил.
Особливо щкавим стае розглянення випадку Республши Кшр, що характеризуеться загалом стабшьною партшною системою, системою помiрноi багатопартшносл з постшним представництвом у парламент i пануванням чотирьох основних партш. Прогресивна пар™ трудового народу Кшру / АКЕЛ, Демократичний збiр / Д1С1, Рух за сощал-демократш / ЕДЕК, Демократична пар™ / Д1КО. Актуальносп набувае дослщження пливу виборiв до Свропарламенту на розстановку сил в кшрськш партшнш
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