CC BY
11
G. Rudov,
cand. of political sciences
TURKEY'S AND IRAN'S ROLE
IN CENTRAL ASIA AND STABILITY PROBLEMS
Turkey being the important strategic partner and the faithful ally of USA carries out active policy in the countries of Central Asia. USA considers Turkey in the region, first of all, as a balance to Russia and in perspective - to China and also being concerned about ideological and political expansion of Iran in the countries of Central Asia and as the ideological representative of the West's policy in Central Asia. Nevertheless, USA not only challenges a possibility to establish the Great Turkestan the idea is ideated by the concrete circles in Turkey. In particular, such approach was used in Washington's attitude towards the regional Union of the countries of Central Asia being formalized on 4 January 1994 in Tashkent. This idea was discussed beginning from 1992 during visiting the Moslem republics of the former USSR of the late president of Turkey T. Ozala and the then state secretary of USA J. Baker. USA agreed to recognize Turkey as "regional super-state" the sphere of the interests the so-called new Turkestan can be included into. According to the political establishment of USA the integration process development according to this scenario would be attractive by two reasons:
First of all, USA would find a way to appease the Islamic states especially the population being set against America and the Islamists themselves attaching the new countries of Central Asia to the Turkish model where according to their opinion a problem on the Moslem state establishing is relatively successfully solved possessing a strong secular "democratic" emphasis;
Secondly, such variant of the problem solving would be based on the objective reasons: on the natural tendency to so-called revival of the common historical past of the Turkic language -speaking peoples and
there would be no keen anxiety and protest from the party of Russia and the Christian world.
However, USA run too far in their policy of the Moslem people contrasting to the Christian world in the region: one shouldn't forget that the Turkish regime having all its achievements is "cemented" by the soldiers but coming to power of the united Islamic radicals in this country would mean USA's policy failure. So, USA's support for the Central Asian countries' ambitions based on panturkism must be limited: one has already passed an opinion that they should concentrate not on Central Asia but just on Turkey being more important partner for USA.
USA continues encouraging Turkey's activity in the region, first of al, concerning energy supply transportation. To some extent it's caused by the reasons of domestic-policy (complex situation in Turkey, a possibility of the clerical force strengthening, the pro-western orientation weakening) and geo-strategic (considering Turkey as one of the reliable allies of USA in Euro-Atlantic cooperation and also in NATO and attempts to make Ankara as the key state in the region) bearer of Washington's policy. Turkey itself after the USSR dissolution assigned primary importance to the supranational Turkic economic are establishing, the united regional energy system and a system of energy supply transportation, a regional bank development, visa-free moving of the citizens and capitals and the common language for the Turkic states. These proposals were made during the first summit of the Turkic language-speaking the CIS-states and Turkey in Ankara on 30-31 October 1992 (there were 7 such summits). However, the leaders of the Turkic republics mildly declined Turkey's proposals on multilateral cooperation having signed only documents at bilateral level and the Ankara declaration which provided for a cooperation in culture, education, language, security, economy and law only in general terms.
One should note that the leaders of the new independent states thought about Turkey's initiatives cautiously. So, the president of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbaev expressed a thought that the relation developing based on ethno-language factors promote not closer relations but people separation so one should develop civilized relations based on mutual respect and state independence. So, there was official negative reaction for the Turkish leadership statements concerning "the Turkish-language speaking empire from the Adriatic Sea to the Great Chinese wall" establishing. The leaders of the post-soviet Turkish-language speaking republics have no desire to be under patronage of "the elder brother in Turkey". Then one also found out economic weak point of Turkey being not capable of its promise fulfilling on financial and economic assistance for these states. As a result, Ankara had to correct its policy with respect to these states concentrating on concrete projects (first of all, on oil-pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Jeikhan) and bilateral relation developing. As a whole the concrete expectations of the countries of Central Asia concerning benefits owing the cooperation with the Country of the morning star weren't satisfied to a great extent. Nevertheless, Turkey continues to be a very attractive partner for the region countries what is caused by such factors as a language, ethnic and religious closeness; a combination of temporal power with the western system for state establishing and the traditional Islam; the success in the economic development (at the beginning of their statehood making the countries of Central Asia tried to use the Turkish model of the development); developed relations with USA and the West as a whole and the impact in the Moslem world.
However, it would be very simple to see Turkey as a bearer of USA's policy in the region. Ankara has its own economic interests (in the sphere of export, contracts works for the building companies, business activity of the Turkish companies) it supports with concrete
measures, first of all, representing itself as "the elder brother" all over the Turkish world having united the new states of Central Asia and Caucasus and propagating the ideas of K. Atatyurk and the common "Turkish house". Turkey invested more than 1 milliard dollars in economy of the region countries of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, opened the doors of its institutions for the thousands of the students from the region countries, assists financially the mosques, the religious schools, the Moslem cultural centers, opened and is inclined to open future joint institutions not only in capitals but in provinces more often (Osh-in Kyrgyzstan, Turkestan - in Kazakhstan, the Fergana valley - in Uzbekistan).
If Turkey enters the EU it will be more attractive for the region; it continues helping the Turkic-language speaking countries in the sphere of culture, religion and education. The countries' inclination to Turkey is no doubt advantageously for Washington because the Russian and the Iranian impact forcing out in the region by Turkey is the strategic problem. The liaison USA-Turkey is negatively taken in Moscow where one negatively thinks practically about all constituents of the Turkish policy over the CIS countries' are. One should note that, however, there are real perspectives to develop cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the different fields (Turkey is one of the important trade-economic partners of Russia) including a contradiction to threats in the sphere of security in Central Asian region. With all reserves the Turkish factor is the important resource for USA's policy in Central Asia and Washington promotes the expansion of all spheres of Ankara cooperation in the region in every way. However, in spite of the world policy hegemony's support Turkey faces with concrete difficulties in Central Asia though the Turkish model of the development continues to be attractive for the leaders of the most countries in the region. The problem is that the economic problems of
Central Asia are too great and complex for Ankara so the other regional players have the real chances in its turn. On the whole in spite of Turkey's activity including the military field of cooperation its attempts to be as the outpost of the Western influence especially to neutralize the potential sources of instability have clear-cut borders in the region.
Iran is one more important player in the region in spite of the fact that Teheran has not yet formulated its relations with the states of Central Asia. According to some political leaders Iran had the greatest chances to strengthen its impact in Tajikistan based on ethnic and cultural closeness with this state. But the active support of the Tajik Islamists and "democratic" leaders during the blood events in May-November 1992 in Tajikistan was the reason of anti-Iranian sentiment increasing among the republic population. Iran's actions caused a strong concern of the other countries in Central Asia having seen a prototype of the Islamic fundamentalism of the Iranian type in the Islamic parties acting inside the country oriented only at the political power seizure in the country. Moreover, the leadership of the region states was being convinced that the Iranian model of the statehood development is hardly to be a sample for Central Asia because of the events taking place in Iran itself. The events of 1990-s in Central Asia made Iran changing its policy with respect to independent states of the region: more realist and pragmatic features became peculiar to this policy. The Iranian diplomacy expressed its concern about the event development in Tajikistan standing for peaceful settlement of the Tajik conflict. Iran placed its territory at the negotiation participants' disposal and besides announced about non-interference into domestic affairs of Tajikistan and other countries of this region made efforts to develop its economic relations with these states. So, the agreements were concluded between Uzbekistan and Iran on relation developing in the agricultural field, transport, oil production and processing, building,
pharmaceutics and banking. Teheran suggested Turkmenistan its help to enter the world market of gas and cotton. Nevertheless, the relations of Central Asian states with Iran are far from being ideal. That is the result of irresistible feeling of mutual disbelief and concern. From the other hand, Iran's economic potential doesn't allow it dictating its terms to the region countries. Besides, Iran's threat to repatriate 500 thousands of the Afghan refugees can destabilize the situation in the north-west of Afghanistan.
Iran seeking to be the leading regional force tries to attach the countries of Central Asia using transit-transport connections, their dependence on road infrastructure, access to ports and pipelines passing via Iran's territory as a method of influence. At the same time Teheran's attempts to interfere into domestic affairs of some states of Central Asia cause a negative reaction there; the ruling regimes of these countries act circumspectly on USA and the West with respect to Iran. Iran opposing to aggressive policy of USA tries to conduct a course to establish and develop good neighborhood in Central Asia, to use ita geographic neighboring as maximum as possible suggesting Central Asian countries transport corridors via its territory, oil and gas pipelines building to the ports of the Persian Gulf. The Iranian diplomacy promotes to peaceful settlement of domestic conflicts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan as far as possible. One should note that those states will no doubt have influence in the region that will be able to make a substantial contribution in its economic development and security and stability providing.
"Kraya dugi nestabilnosti: Balkany - Tsentralnaya Aziya ",
M, 2010, p. 219-225
