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I. Ilin,
D.Sc.(Politics), Professor, Dean of the Faculty of global processes, Moscow State University, O.Leonova,
D.Sc.(Politics), Associate Professor, Faculty of global processes, Moscow State University TRENDS OF THE POLITICAL PROCESSES OF GLOBALIZATION
There are many scenarios and options for the future global development, discussed by the international community nowadays. Numerous foreign experts try to identify new trends in the development of the political situation in the global world of the 21st century, not excluding the possibility of any projected scenarios in a situation of "global uncertainty" that is typical for our time.
Russian scientists are also actively engaged in the global political forecasting, which is reflected in materials of international congresses on global studies, conducted by the Faculty of global processes, Moscow State University of Lomonosov, as well as its numerous publications, involving well-known experts on globalization.
The analysis of these materials, as well as outcome of discussions, allow to ascertain the achievement of visible results in the forecast of the development of the globalization of the political processes.
However, analysis of the economic aspect dominates in numerous publications about the development of globalization, but the political aspect of globalization has not been analyzed properly yet.
Many of these issues are the subject of debate. The definitions remain controversial, not only of globalization as a phenomenon of development in the modern world, but also of the political globalization, as a special aspect of it. One of the main experts on globalization, A.N. Chumakov, gives the following definition of globalization: it is "a reflection of the dynamics of socio-economic and political change on a global scale" [Chumakov 2013: 29].
Insufficient development of theoretical and methodological basis of the political globalization becomes more and more obvious in recent years. The nature of the political globalization and its consequences, of the political processes of globalization (their genesis, nature, essence, evolution and consequences), national interests in the context of the globalized world is still not well understood today. The political globalization is a reflection of the dynamics of the political processes in the emerging global political system.
New features of the global geopolitical space are manifested in the 21 century in the transition from bipolar to multipolar, and from monocentric to polycentric: improving the dynamics of the globalized political processes; reconfiguration, fragmentation, hierarchy, changing the architecture of the world; formation of the new geopolitical axes; bloc, dispersion and exacerbation of rivalry of emerging centers of power.
In the 21st century, the scenario of a slow movement toward a multipolar polycentric world will be the most likely, according to experts. If the U.S. is forced to focus economic, military and diplomatic resources on confrontation with Russia on the one hand, and on the containment of radical Islam - on the other one in the next decade, then
a number of states, that have accumulated enough strength, will be able to claim the status of the power center in globalized world.
The major powers in other regions use every opportunity to realize their own strategic objectives to a greater extent, including the achievement of political autonomy, and control over the strategically important geopolitical space. There is no consensus of expert opinion on the causes of the globalized political processes still.
Political processes of globalization are the processes occurring in the context of the political aspect of globalization, as a result of which there is a structural transformation of the global political system and the emergence of new global political actors, increased political relationship and interdependence between them, forming the global political architecture and hierarchy.
The world political system is gradually evolving into the global political system, increasing the number of global political actors, and involving new participants in the political process of globalization.
The political processes of globalization have a dynamic nonlinear nature of the gain and complexity of the political relationship between all elements of the emerging global political system.
Development trends of the political processes of globalization
are related to their transformation, nonlinear, partial disfunction and bifurcations of political system of the global world. Nowadays there is a collision of old trends of the political development of the global world of the 20th century with the new trends of formation of a polycentric world. As the collision of old and new trends, so as transformation of the political system in the global one, create a new content of the political processes of globalization.
The modern world is global in economic, informational, environmental aspects, but it remains fragmented in political and socio-cultural sense still. Almost two hundred sovereign states interact with
each other, have certain conflicts of interests and goals, enter into conflict or, on the contrary, form coalitions and alliances. The whole range of these contradictory relationship is one of the causes of political processes of globalization.
Almost two hundred sovereign states interact with each other, have certain conflicts of interests and goals come into conflicts, or, on the contrary, form coalitions and alliances. The whole range of these contradictory relations is one of the causes of political processes of globalization.
Currently, analysis and forecasting of trends in the development of political processes of globalization are increasingly relevant and in demand. The most obvious and important trends are as follows:
1. "Global states"
Some global state of the phenomena and processes are fixed in the emerging global world.
"Global status" is a qualitatively new state of the world political system, which is gradually evolving into global political system. The new "global status" means the transformation of the international system, a change in the nature and the content of global connections and relationships, changes in the geopolitical status of individual states and global actors. Globalization leads to structural changes in the world political system and the restructuring of the entire system of international relations.
The interaction of the political processes of globalization of different levels: global and regional, global and local, regional and local (which occur primarily in the economic, informational, environmental spheres, and in the last instance - in political one), is an example of "global state" of the world political system.
The world gradually becomes global-integral through their interaction and relationship.
2. The new structure of global peace
The global world of the 21st century will be structured according to different principles, it will begin to line up another hierarchy, other principles will determine the geopolitical status of global actors.
The hierarchy of the global world are represented by the following structural elements: power centers, applicants for status of center of power, economic, political, military and civilizational poles, global power, regional power. This hierarchy of structural elements, or rather the struggle for a place in it, will determine the course of the global political processes in the world and future scenarios of its development. [Ilyin, Leonova 2013].
The global world is formed not as a community of equal nations, but as a rigid hierarchy of states and regional political systems.
The new configuration of the global world will arise gradually with the emergence of new economic, military and political poles, which will be characterized by "mobility patterns of the world system" and "variability of the rules" of its functioning [Grinin 2013: 73].
Structures of the global world will be moveable, and rules of functioning and principles of life will be volatile. The main significance will be not rules, not international law, but economic and geopolitical interests of global actors. The increase in scope of the globalization processes, the increase in number of global actors (TNCs, NGOs, terrorist organizations, criminal syndicates, etc ..) will strengthen this trend.
3. Changes in the geopolitical landscape
The consequence of the formation of a new structure of the global world will be a change in its geopolitical landscape.
One of the important trends of the 21st century will be the "continental, and then transcontinental crystallization and consolidation of the global geopolitical space" in which the movement of the future will not occur in the form of a "clash of civilizations", but in the context of "competition of civilizations", natural in a market environment. "The consequence will be a transition from the current volatile-unipolar world with one main currency USD and one international language of "global English" to superlarge mutually competing five units: the Christian Democratic Confederation of North on the basis of the EU, Russia and the US, East Asia and China block, Arab-Muslim world, South Asia and India union, and Latin America, with no less currency and language." It is not necessary to comment on the predicted composition of the "Confederation of the North", given the "mobility patterns of the world system" of the global world [Segura Zaytsev 2011: 186-187].
The presence of nuclear weapons can neutralize differences in the political weight between these countries and blocs, or deepen the hierarchical distance between them, if some of them do not possess such weapons.
4. The United States remains
to be the center of power of the global world
The U.S. will remain to be the center of power of the global world in the 21st century. Much have been written about the weakening of the U.S. hegemony in recent years, however, these projections were clearly premature. Although the US position will be weakened, no one can become the absolute leader in the new world. Today the United
States have concentrated the political, military, financial, currency, economic, technological, ideological and even cultural leadership in them . No single country or group of countries can take on such a burden because of the economic opportunities or political risks, or due to the lack of experience and the necessary alliances and ideological weakness. [Grinin 2013: 65, 73].
"The United States, despite all the manifold difficulties and debts have unsurpassed scientific, educational, technological, military and political potential, and will long continue to maintain global leadership" [Rozov 2010: 90].
The presence of nuclear weapons can neutralize the differences in political weight between these countries and blocs, or deepen the hierarchical distance between them, if there is no such weapons.
5. Desovereignization of Europe
Economic desovereignization in Europe is a result of the project of European integration. This project conceived as a tool to compete with the U.S. and Japan, it has turned into a project, managed by the United States. As a result, "the major countries of Western Europe are increasingly becoming their vassals" [Osokina, Suvorov 2011: 184]. The process of political desovereignization of Europe is carried out, and the recent events have been demonstrated it, including the events in Ukraine. Considering the U.S. role in NATO, and their decisive voice in the North Atlantic Alliance, it is possible to speak of the military and strategic desovereignization of the European Union. It is safe to predict that such future awaits the other areas of American influence in the world.
6. Polarization of modernization and geopolitical strategies
"Polarization of the two modernization and geopolitical strategies" is planned in the global world. There is an alternative of the two models in the "Far East Region": Japanese and Chinese, Atlantic and some "alternative".
Eurasian space is splitting up into Asia Pacific system, based on the strategy of modernization of the western Atlantic (where the US and Japan are the leaders), and the new continental system (where China is now the leader, but there is still a vacancy for Russia). Today, the polarization of the formation system occurs not only in the Far East, but throughout the global world, and the most polarize form is Eurasia. [Panarin, 2008: 62]
7. The instability and increased conflict potential of the global world
The global world is characterized by a change of the hierarchical status of global actors and the instability of the hierarchical pyramid in the whole, in its political aspect due to the dynamics of the globalization processes. The former centers of power and poles of the global world will give the way to new and more dynamic, assertive and having the clear competitive advantages applicants.
The complication of the political process of globalization results in increasing the degree of instability. Subjective factors are becoming increasingly important, and not the personal preferences of political leaders, but the extent of passionarity in the fulfillment of the political order, the nature and methods of political governance.
The evolution of international relations and the global political system will be characterized by increasing instability and
unpredictability, which can only grow as a multi-polar system of the global polycentric world.
The generally accepted "rules of the game", the principles and norms of behavior of global actors, as well as institutions and organizations, will be missing in the system, which would effectively regulate and control the interaction of the different poles and power centers of the global world. Increased conflict is a modern trend, and many regions of the global world have been involved in the conflict yet: Israel and Palestine, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine and others.
The vast majority of today's conflicts are associated with the struggle for the distribution of limited resources, energy resources basically. If the reason for many conflicts of the 20th century was a struggle for access to oil, then the reason for ones of the 21st century is the competition for access to areas for extraction of shale gas.
8. Ineffectiveness of international organizations
International organizations such as the UN, the European Parliament, the OSCE, "Big Seven" and "Big Twenty", the World Bank and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development demonstrate the inability to respond adequately to the challenges of the political processes of globalization.
They were created in a different historical time, they were given other functions, not connected with the task of controlling and managing the political process of globalization. They were not prepared and not able to functionally meet the challenges that confronts them with the global world.
Current international institutions and structures that have proved effective in the past, are imperfect instruments in the present, when a new "global state" and change the format of the international political system began to manifest itself.
Today, international institutions of management and control on the development of the world political system lag behind the speed, dynamics and scale of development of the political processes of globalization. Their further degradation is possible.
The lack of effectiveness of international institutions indicates the absence of mechanisms to control the emerging political system of globalization, as Russian and foreign authors wrote repeatedly [Weber, 2009; Chumakov 2010; 2012; Drobot 2011; Ursul 2014; Martin 2003; Kiss 2014].
The most effective subjects of global management become centers of power of the global world in the absence of mechanisms for the global management and control over the political processes of globalization. Global political leaders will guide and supervise them in the extent to which the globalization processes are subject to the political influence of the subjective.
Self-regulation is a sign of the freedom of action and the right to defend its national interests. These freedom and rights are under the strict control of a single center of power of the global world today -the United States. The global world can become polycentric in the future, and the new centers of power will arise in it: in Asia, Latin America, Eurasia, maybe in Africa. Then, the global space will be shared into spheres of their interests, and the contractual process regarding the division of spheres of influence and the possibility to control them instead of global management will go between the centers of power.
According to the law of cyclicity of the global political development of the new centers of power with their game rules, they will impose them on others actors of the global world, standing on a lower level of the global hierarchy. Wars will be fought between the existing centers of power, and candidates for this status. The war would
take the form of regional conflicts, and will not be held on the territory of rivals, and it is obvious for today.
10. The new bloc. The era of new coalitions
The phenomenon of the global regionalization, observed in the global world, leads to the formation of regional systems and subsystems of international relations objectively [Leonova 2013].
The process of maturity of these regional systems and subsystems will promote the formation of economic, political and military-strategic units, alliances and coalitions based on them.
The vectors of foreign policy will largely be determined by the economic interests of the state and will be a priority in comparison with ideological purposes in a fierce competition for scarce resources. The instability of the global political system will grow in conditions of increased conflictness in the global world. Geopolitical and economic interests will be very dynamic, unstable, rapidly changing, which will affect the rapid change of the priority vectors of foreign policy, partners, allies and enemies. Recently there has been an increase in the size of these blocks, by recruiting new members or partners (including observer countries, or the so-called associate members), which leads to an increase in the geopolitical space controlled by the unit.
For example, ASEAN was established in 1967, Initially, the five countries entered in the Association (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore). Then, Vietnam joined in 1995, Laos and Myanmar - in 1997, a little later - Cambodia.
Mercosur was formed in 1991, and Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay entered it initially. Chile and Bolivia joined the organization as associated members (1996), Peru (2003), Ecuador, and Colombia (2005), Venezuela became a full member next.
The process of enlargement of the European Union continues. Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania and others are in line for entry into it.
Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is expected, India, Pakistan, and possibly Mongolia will become new members.
The global world of the 21st century is an objectively existing phenomenon, fragmented into a large geopolitical space - regional systems, which are closely interconnected and interdependent. Economic, political and socio-cultural interaction between them will grow and develop rapidly in the future.
11. Geopolitical pluralism
Geopolitical pluralism is increasing in the global world, differentiation of geopolitical positions and interests is enhanced in the regions: Latin America, South-East and North-East Asia and Africa.
Russia also increases its "geopolitical pluralism" in recent times, actualizing its priority relations in the post-Soviet space with the countries of Central Asia. Dynamics of relations between Russia and the countries of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region was consolidated.
At the same time the European vector of foreign policy remained the most important and significant for Russia for a long time. In recent years, our country began to show a clear interest in developing partnerships with the countries of Latin America and Africa, which was presented as a "return" of Russia on the continent.
Since the "reset" of relations between Russia and the United States is not entirely successful, there has been a change in Russia's geopolitical codes and reversal of its policy towards the East, primarily on strong partnerships with China. Enhancing cooperation with
countries that are not priority vectors of Russian foreign policy, increases the tendency of flexibility and multivariance of political processes of globalization.
12. The transformation of the national sovereignty of the state
The future of nation-states in the global world causes a lot of discussion. The reduction of the sovereignty of a nation-state is inevitable as a consequence of the creation of new blocs and coalitions, many of which can generate their own supranational government. These processes lead to the transformation of national sovereignty, which will weaken because of partly delegated sovereign prerogatives to various intergovernmental, supranational and global entities and arrangements. [L. Grinin 2013; 74].
There is also an opinion that the decrease in the degree of sovereignty of independent states may occur in the future due to the weapons of mass destruction, integration of the armed forces of the West in the military organization of NATO and the U.S. monopoly on the actual management. The U.S. supervise the territory of their potential competitors directly, locating their military bases there. [Osokina, Suvorov 2011: 184].
13. The conflict between the national interests of the state and globalization. The problem
of implementation of the national interests of the state in the global world
Trends to reduce the degree of sovereignty of independent states is opposed to another trend of globalization of the 21st century -a rising conflict between the national interests of the state and globalization, which will be particularly acute in the political sphere.
At the end of the 20th century it seemed that the role of a nation-state began to weaken with the development of the economic dimension of globalization, the increasing economic interdependence of countries, the increasing role of trans-national corporations, the development of international financial markets, the internationalization of capital and business. Dismantling of a nation-state seemed inevitable and a matter of the nearest future. It became obvious, that there was a number of serious problems that could not be solved within the framework of intergovernmental structures (UN, OSCE, the European Parliament and so on). These were the issues and challenges that affected the national interests of a country and their decision was the prerogative of a nation-state.
Therefore, the expected decline of the state did not take place and it would be unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The trend of political development of Russia in the 21st century is a convincing proof. The strengthening of "vertical of power" and other political and administrative reforms have led to the strengthening of the role of the state in the economic, political and other spheres of social life. Examples of China, the countries of Southeast Asia, and a number of successfully developing post-Soviet states confirm this as well.
The problem of national interests in the global world remains a subject of debate and reflection. Obviously, states will not be able to abandon the defense of its national interests for the sake of the future of "the unity of mankind" in the near future. National interest is an objective limitation of the process of the political globalization. This obstacle may be removed, but gradually, as the search for a balance of national interests of each country and the global system of the political interdependence and subordination of the global world.
14. Relevance and competitiveness of authoritarian states
The global financial and economic crisis has manifested another interesting trend of globalization - the relevance and competitiveness of authoritarian states. A number of authoritarian states have demonstrated their economic and political efficiency and have shown themselves worthy competitors of European democratic states in the course of the global economic crisis.
A kind of competition between traditional democratic states that have evolved within the liberal democratic model, and the countries which regimes are called authoritarian, occurs in the 21st century. Today, the latter demonstrate their economic and political effectiveness after a number of global financial and economic crises, and they are worthy competitors to democratic states with liberal economy. This trend has already been called "the great revival of the authoritarian powers," and many analysts and experts wonder what is more effective in the context of globalization: democracy or dictatorship? Democracy has proved its effectiveness over the 20th century. But not only the liberal-democratic way of development is successful in the 21st century. The authoritarian regimes are prospective in the context of global development trends, where the state has a dominant role in the economy and politics. The promising prospects are opened to Russia, that has not been accepted into the "club" of democratic countries with market economies.
15. Changing the periphery's role of the global world and the efficient geopolitical strategy of developing countries
Development of the periphery of the global world has accelerated as a result of globalization, especially its economic aspect. Moving the
poles of economic growth and the financial flows to the Asia-Pacific region, the periphery of the global world recently, is an obvious fact.
The growth of economic development and economic contribution to the world economy entails the increasing the political "weight" of countries of the global periphery in the global political system and status in the hierarchy of the global world. The geopolitical strategy of developing countries will be associated with the search for ways to grow and effective alternatives to the trends of industrialization. Most likely, this strategy will be formed as the anti-Western one.
The growth of economies of Asian and other countries in the periphery, and the growth of their political influence will lead to checking with them of new rules, regulations and standards of conduct of Western countries in the global world. It is possible that many of the political standards and norms of political development of the global world will be dictated not by Western countries led by the United States. Thus, not only the Western, but also other civilizations will be represented among the power centers of the global world of the 21st century. The dynamic growth of the economies of other non-Western countries and, consequently, their increasing political influence in a globalized world can lead to areas outside the U.S. interaction. These zones can emerge in Asia Pacific, Latin America and North-East Asia in the near future and will inevitably rise. For example, the SCO is an example of the area outside the U.S. interaction.
The expansion of the SCO is inevitable and new candidates for membership in the organization were announced at its last summit in Dushanbe on September 12 2014. The possible accession of new countries in the SCO, especially such geopolitically significant as India, Pakistan, Iran, will lead to the expansion of areas outside U.S. interaction. The trend of a new bipolar world will emerge with the expansion of such areas.
Competition of ideas, concepts and ways of development may arise between areas outside US interaction and the developed countries of the West. China, South-East Asia, India, Latin America demonstrate that the search for a unique way to the new world of the 21st century has a good prospect of success. Perhaps the scenario of globalization, sponsored by the US, will be rewritten in the near future.
16. Enhancing the role of the Ummah in the political processes of globalization. Transformation of the Ummah in a collective global actor
D. Efremenko predicts that globalization is gradually "brings to an end the economic, cultural and technological dominance of European civilization, which has been lasted more than five centuries" [Efremenko 2009: 162].
Political processes of globalization impact on the diverse and fragmented Islamic world, contributing to the strengthening of its unity. The need of finding adequate responses to the challenges of globalization promotes unification and synthesis of different currents of Islam. The development of globalization as a unity of the world system, and information and communication technologies is a factor that contributes to the formation of a kind of "Islamic International". Tens of thousands of Islamic financial, political, cultural, spiritual and educational organizations, united by a common ideology, goals and vision of the global problems will join it. The ummah is transformed gradually into a quasi-political block or a coalition of states that actively opposed to a westernization and globalization in its western form. The Ummah becomes a powerful global actor in the 21st century, that will actively participate in the development of the global world and Western countries will have to reckon with its opinion. New
geopolitical perspectives and problems appear before Russia in this situation. One of them is the search for a constructive political interaction with the Muslim world.
The process of destruction of the moral traditions of Christian and Muslim civilizations, the erosion of moral standards, and replacement of ethical ideals have reached such proportions that it became one of the most important global problems of mankind. The traditional religions of the world civilizations may offer a way out of moral impasse in which mankind goes.
The global development is variably and contains many possible directions. This variability provides a large number of different global actors, seeking to realize their economic and geopolitical interests. The new vectors of development, the new measurements, the key problems and the bifurcation point constantly emerge in the global world. The global world is the order, structure, hierarchy, algorithms of actions of global actors, the relationships between them, values, ideals, objectives and prospects of development, which are constantly changing.
Maintaining the civilization and the geopolitical global balance between East and West is still depends on Russia. A strong Russia will support education in Eurasia. Weakening and especially the loss of Russia as a political subject of world-class offer the prospect of a direct collision of Western, Muslim and Pacific worlds in the struggle for the redivision of the ecumene [Panarin, 2008: 77].
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R. Serderov,
Ph.D.(Hist.), Senior Lecturer, Chair of History of the Fatherland, Dagestan State University ON INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL THREATS OF RUSSIA IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
Protection of national interests and ensuring national security of the Russian Federation are directly connected with the development of the situation in all the Post-Soviet space. The North Caucasus is a kind of border areas, a strong point for protection of its vital national interests in the Caucasus, Caspian, and the Middle East regions.
You can take into account that Russia, as a Caucasian state, pursues its national interests, maintaining its territorial integrity. The Caucasus has become a region where a direct threat to the national
